G2aZ9Z 56 -CbA9Document of

The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Repo" No. 8465-CRA1M 1 (2}'i CH'l'IEd W'tFY

Rr*¾ort Nci. 84C5 (WA Type: (SA11i)1':I2. CAr , X74604 7 ,H 7011/ A.O)3r

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

CHI1IA

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT

AUGUST 12, 1991

Transport Operations DivisionCountry Department IIIAsia Regional Office

Ths docment hIs w resticed dibudon aod may be used by dp1enb ony In fte petonnamwe ofthei offlide duties t cen way oot oth se be di6osed wt b World Bank auoIaon

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

N

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS(as of April 1991)

Currency name - RenminbiCurrency unit - Yuan (Y) 100 Fen

$1.00 Y 5.22$0.19 Y 1.0

FISCAL YEAR

January 1 - December 31

WEIGBTS AND MEASURES

1 meter (m) - 3.28 feet (ft)1 kilometer (km) 0.62 miles (mi)

1 square meter (a) 10.76 square feet (ft2)1 square kilometer (kW - 0.4 square miles (mi2)

l'hectare (ha) = 0.01 km2 - 2.47 acres (ac)1 kilogram (kg) = 2.2046 pounds (lbs)

ABBREVIATIONS

ADB Asian Development BankAIDAB Australian International Development Assistance BureauATC Area Traffic ControlCBD Central Business DistrictDS Development ScenarioICB International Competitive BiddingIDA International Development AssociationIRRCC Inner Ring Road Construction CompanyLCB Local Competitive BiddingNMV Nonmotorized VehicleNSC North-South CorridorSA Shanghai AuthoritiesSAA State Audit AdministrationSMAB Shanghai Municipality Audit BureauSCPDI Shanghai City Planning and Design InstituteSCTPT Shanghai Comprehensive Transport Planning TeamSFB Shanghai Finance BureauSITC Shanghai International Tendering CompanySMCC Shanghai Municipal Construction CommissionSMEAD Shanghai Municipal Engineerlng Administration DepartmentSMECC Shanghai Municipal Engineering Construction CompanySHECSC Shanghai Municipal Engineering Construction Supervision CompanySMEDI Shanghai Municipal Engineering Design. InstituteSMG Shanghai Municipal GovernmentSMR Shanghai Metropolitan RegionS1RQDC Shanghai Municipa_. Residential Quarters Development CorporationSCCTPI Shanghai City Comprehensive Transport Planning InstituteSCPDI Shanghai City Planning and Design InstituteSMTO Shanghai Municipal Transportation OfficeSPC State Planning CommissionSPSB Shanghai Public Security BureauSTC Shanghai Transit CompanySUCDI Shanghai Urban Construction Design InstituteSUPDI Shanghai Urban Planning and Design InstituteTMD Traffic Management DivisionTDP U.S. Trade and Development Program

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

SA 1A HtSOP3ITAM -ANb-PORT PROJC?

Crodit and Prolect Dea

sor re Pieplop' Republic of Chim

Ieneficaia s Shanuga tiicipal Peopl2' oovenment

Amount: $DR 44.4 miljov (*00.0 mIlion equvralent)

!ern.: Standard, with 59 years, maturity Including 10 years'grace period.

Ielondia TLrms: Prom the overrmnt of ChlAs tO Shanghai MunicipalGovernmnts 20 years Including S years of grace atfSxed lnterest rate of 1.9 percent per annum lnterestwith 0.75 percent per annum citmont fee on outstand-Ing budce. The foreli exchange rlok would be borneby 5haugha Municipal Government.

Proiect Objectives

aEd Descr&itLont The principal objective of the project is to provlde thebaeLs foc developing an efficLent urban transport systmin Shanghai. In order to achieve this objeclive, theproject li dsolned to lncease capacity, reduce conges-tion, and lprove efficiency In the transport network;and mprove the planning, programming, finance and man-agemnt of the urban transport system In Shanghai. Theproject vould represent the first stage of a long-termprogrm intended to upgrade an4 develop the urban trans-port infrastructure of Shanghai i order to meet thedemands gonerated by modernisation of the local economy.Project elements consist of construction of a 5.5 kilo.meter viaduct with surface road improvements underneathand to the north and south of the viaduct; traffic man-agement and safety including 1.1 killomters of buswayand 19 kilometers of nonmotor vehicle roadst and techni-cal assistance to strengthen the municipality's capabil-ities for planning and implementing urban transportationmeasures, effecting improvements in traffic and safety,and public transport management.

JBnefits$ The project would alleviate traffic congestion andimprove road safety in the Shanghi Motropolitan region.The iprovements financed through this project directlyaddress the most serious traffic problems in the innercity. Benefits would accrue from savings In vehicleoperating costs, personal savings associated withshorter travel tim, and reduction in accident costs,wlth an internal econoiLc rate of return estimated at18 percent for the Ihougshan Road investments and52 percent for the Znner City Road Zmprovemmnta.

This document ha a retcted distrbution and may be used by reipients only In the perfornanucof their offcal duods. Its contents may n otherwi be discoed without World Bank authorization.

Risks: Project risks include delays in the construction of theZhongshan viaduct and the needed demolition andresetteiment, and availability of counterpart funds.The land needed for resettlement is already available tothe agencies concerned. Both agencies responsitle fordemolition and resettlement have a great deal ofexperience in this area. and the resettlement would beincluded as a small part of Shanghail's already ongoingresettilement program. The project representsapproximately 10 percent of Shanghai's urban transportinvestment program over the next six years, based on theanalysis of Shanghai's transport finances carried outduring project preparation. The risks mentioned abovemay therefore be mitigated.

Estimated Costs$ Local Foreign Total------------ ($ million) ------------

Major arterial roads 55.2 52.0 107.1Traffic safety and management 6.8 2.7 9.4Technical assistance 0.0 4.2 4.2

Base Cost (June 1991) 61.9 58.9 120.8

Physical contingencies 6.2 5.5 11.7Price contingencies 10.7 5.1 15.8

Total Project Cost la 78.8 69.4 148.3

Financing Plan:

IDA 0.0 60.0 60.0Shanghai Municipal Government 78.8 9.4 88.3

Total Financin Required 78.8 69.4 148.3

Estimated Disbursements (S million)s

IDA FY (711-6130) FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98

Annual 6.0 3.1 15.0 22.1 9.2 4.6 0.0Cumulative 6.0 9.1 24.1 46.2 55.4 60.0 60.0

Project profile (X) 10.0 15.1 40.1 77.0 92.3 100.0 100.0China profile (2) 3.0 14.5 35.9 62.0 82.1 95.9 100.0

Economic Rate ofReturns Zhongshan Road 181

Inner City Road Improvements 322

La Including identifiable taxes of Y 8.07 million ($1.55 million equivalent).

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

CHIKA

SHANGdiAI METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT

Table of Contents

Page No.

I. URBAN BACKGROUND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

National Context . . . ... . . . . . 1Urbanization Trends, Issues, and Options in Shanghai . . . 2

II. URBAN TkANSPOR SECTOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Present Condition of Urban Transport ... . a . * . .. . . 6Road Network .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Traffic Engineering and Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Vehicle Fleet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * . . . . . . 9Public Transport .... . . . . . . . . . . . . ........ 9Freight Movee ents ............... .... 10Traffic Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Urban Trinsport Policy . . . . ... . .. . . . . . . . . . 11Urban Transport Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Determination of Urban Transport Priorities . . . . . . . . 15Environmental Pollution .... . . . . . . ....... . 17Bank's Urban Sector Lending Strategy and Role in Shanghai . 18Rationale for Bank Group Involvement . . . . . . . . . . . 19

III. THE PROJECT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Project Origin and Formulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Project Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Project Description...................................... 21Major Road Investments . . . . . . .*... . . .. . . . 22Traffic Management and Safety . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . 23Estimated Project Cost .... . . . . ............ .... . 26

This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission to China inSeptember and October 1989 comprising Ms. Carolle Carr (Mission Leader),Messrs. Peter Midgley (Urban Transport Planner), George Beier (Economist),John Herbert (Urban Planner), Paul Stott (Municipal Engineer). George Mahoney(Engineer, Consultant;, and Philip Cornwell (Urban Transport Planner,Consultant). The appraisal findingr were updated by a mission to Shanghai inFebruary 1991 comprising Messrs. Daud Abmad, Peter 4idgley, and Paul Stott.Peer reviewers were Nessrs. Flora, Barrett, Menkhoff, and Homer. The DivisionChief is Mr. Daud Ahmad and Department Director is Mr. Shahid Javed Burki.

Page No.III. THE PROJECT (cont'd)

Project Financing Plan ................ . . 26Project Management Arrangements . . . . . . . . . . .. . . 27Implementation of Physical Works . . . . . . . . . 28Consulting services .e.r....e.......... ... ........ 29Procurement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Disbursemnt . .. .. . . . . .. . . . . .. . ... . . .a . 31Auditing, Reporting, and Monitoring . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

IV. ECONOMIC,- SOCI&. AND ENVIRONMENTAL COMSIDEEATIONS 33

sconomic Justification .... . . . . ................ . 33Traffic with and without Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33Economic ates of Return . ..... .............a....... 34Environmental Imact .... . . . . .......... ........ 35Project Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... .. . . a.....a 35

V. AGREIEMNTS REACHED AND RE"' ATION . . * . . . . . . . 37

ANNXESS

t. Urban Transport Constraints to Growth in Shanghai2. Traffic Management and Safety3. Technical Assistance Sumiary4. Major Road Investments--Zhongshan Inner-Ring Road5. Resettlement and the Environmental Impact of the Project6. Project Costs7. Project Managemeat Organization8. Procurement Arrange_ nts9. Disbursement Schebduae, Allocation of Crtdit Proceeds, and

Expenditure Flow10. Project Implementation Schedule and Cash Flow11. Performance Measures for Monitoring Resettlement and Other

Environmental Impacts12. Analysis of Project Benefits13. Selected Documents and Data Available in Project File

CHARTS

1. Shanghai Municipality Administrative Structure2, Project Management and Construction Supervision Arrangements3. The Demolition and Resettlement Process

MAPS

IBRD 22042: Shanghai Metropolitan AreaIBRD 22043s Traffic ManagmentIBRD 22117t Non-Motor Vehicle Action ProgramIBID 22118: North-South Corridor Action Program

I. URBAN BACKGROUND

National Context

1.1 China has a lare, burgeoning urban sector in terms of number ofcities, and their population and their productivity. In 1985 there veze 150cities with urban populations exceeding 200,000 and thousands of msilertowns. Despite an Intense campaign to provide rural employmnt and discourageurban growth, China's cities and their economies are graving steadily and havebecome the mainstay of the national economy. The registered 1989 urban popu-lation of some 450 larger cities and towns (not including county towns andrural populations administered by the cities) was about 117 million or 28 per-cent of China's total population. As shown in Table 1.1 below, the municipal-ities containing these urban centers produced over 90 percent of China'sindustrial output in 1989 (valued at Y 1,982 billion) and 67 percent of agri-cultural output (valued at Y 439 billion).

gkl.Ats fR14ARY CITrI N e CNA 19*9)

t6jnI@IpnhIthor R.a II , arn uro lounl

Shanghai 12.7 1,16 7.78 0 70 151.88 6.08 108.40 4.70 6.06 0.98

iBijIng 10.24 0.92 6.92 0.69 70." 8.92 69.51 2.78 6.06 0.92

TlenjIn 6.57 0,7T 8.70 0.51 66.69 2.69 54.4 2.46 S.10 0.79

Uhwnng 5.68 0.81 4.50 0.40 85.04 1.59 8.88 1.81 2.85 0.811

Vubon 6.88 0.59 8.71 0.a8 80.5 1.84 21.97 1.J 3.26 0.50

Ouwahm 5.65 0.801 8.54 0.82 40.71 1.46 45.9" 1.54 4.11 0.68

Chanqlng 14.71 1.82 2.9" 0.27 19.67 1.16 19.0 0.90 7.01 1.07

HurbIn 8.01 0.54 26.0 0.o5 26.60 0.75 16.21 0.74 1.2m O.1t

Tteel LI. RM. LA 440.j" WA. a4r.a4 sn ,

450 itleau 695.97 62.59 817.69 26.7? 1,99.47 V'O.04 1,489.75 66.50 419.29 07.92

Chins--totlpopulation 1,111.91 140.00 2,201.70 100.00 080.80 100.0

Sorcet Steto Stlotlaut 1uro.u,

1.2 Although constrained by recent capital investment controls andcounterinflationary measures imposed by the central government, urban economicdevelopment continues (15 percent avrsage annual growth rate during 1983-88),and city populations are swelled by growing numbers of migrant workers seekingoff-farm employment. More than 5 million persons are estimated to join theurban ranks in China each year. Declining levels of service, despite risingexpectations, and backlogs in public service provision to industry and house-holds are major issues facing China's urban managers. Urban infrastructureinvestment has typically been financed by grants from local revenues which arenow severely limited by central revenue sharing requirements and competinglocal economic development domands as well as growing consumer subsidies.Moreover, despite growing household incomes, cost recovery has not kept pacewith inflation so that development resources are further constrained by highsubsidie needed for routine expenditures, Complementing increased resourcemobilization and investment are the cities' institutional development needs.In particular better management processes and tools such as comprehensivespatial planning, expenditurs programming and coordination, maintenance plan-

-2-

ning, and fiscal management are essential in promoting China's urban develop-ment efficiently.

1.3 Eight of China's cities exceeded 2 million inhabitants in 1989.These cities, as shown in Table 1.1 above, accounted for almost 12 percent ofthe urban population (3.4 percent of the total population) not including tem-porary residents, and produced 23.8 percent of the industrial output of theurban areas or 15.8 percent of China's total industrial output value in 1989.The most significant of these cities is Shanghai with 2.4 percent of the totalurban population (0.7 percent of total population) which produced in 1989 some34 percent of all municipal industrial output (almost 6.9 percent of totalindustrial output) valued at about Y 151.5 billion. Shanghai has tradition-ally been one of China's principal industrial engines, but during the 1960.and 19709 the bulk of the city's revenues were assigned to other nationalpriorities, and the city was unable to modernize its infrastructure ade-quately. In 1987 Shanghai transferred about Y 12.4 billion to the centraltreasury, representing about 24 percent of all such urban revenue transfers.This burden has boen lightened in recent years. As from 1988 the city isexpected to contribut=_ coughly Y 10.5 billion to the central treasury and isable to retain surpluses for its own development purposes. There has beenreal growth in industrial output recently (9.2 percent per annum on averagefor 1983-88), but surpluses are retained mainly by the city's enterprises sothat revenues for public services have continued to fall despite significantgrowth in the built-up urban area as shown in Table 1.2 below.

Mh&Lt.Zt 9v98W LOCI L tioS AMS ReBM

oLoca overn_nat algoverment RevonueIn0dotriel Enterprile rLotte *enditur. tranefer

.t4 Cl Urn Plut nt In *-f billienI C4 b i T to aentr*lcountle only aren (Y bilIon) fi gaCly 1 sodCTt oy govern t

Year (million) (mllloon) (kC) G9O *ree (Y blIIion) count.as only cowntic& only (V billion)

19l6 12.2 7.0 184.0 $8.8 2.8 18.2 16.1 4.2 8.8 18.8

1966 12.8 7.1 1'02.0 S7.8 18.8 17.6 18.6 8.6 8.1 18.4

1487 12.5 7.2 217.0 60.5 7.to16.5 14.2 5.0 4.3 12.4

196W 12.6 7.8 247.0 70.0 0.1 1S.4 12.8 6.5 n.c. n.n.

1989 12.8 7.8 248.0 78.8 4.7 15.9 tS.8 7.1 6.1 n.m.

Sourco: Sitat. Statlitleial Suran.

Urbanization Trends, Issues, and Options in Shanghai

1.4 Shanghai is the largest metropolis in China and has the potential ofbecoming one of the largest centers of international trade and commerce in thePacific region. It is the largest port in China and one of the courtry's mostimportant industrial bases and centers of commerce, science, higher education,trade, and finance. It had a registered municipal population of approximately12.8 million in 1990 (not including unregistered "temporary" residents esti-mated at 1.5 million to 2.0 million). About 7.8 million of the registeredpopulation is urban and much of the remainder semi-urban. Future populationgrowth, however, could be heavily influenced by in-migration related to eco-nomic performance and increasing relaxation of migration controls. By theyear 2010, the total municipal population could be between 19 million and 22million, with an urban component between 12 million and 14 million.

1.5 Of the 8 million persons in the labor force in Shanghai, 57 percentwork in the secondary sector, 31 percent in the tertiary sector, and 12 per-

. -

-3-

cent in the primary sector. Growth in the secondary and tertiary sectors mayexpand the labor force to between 11 million and 13 million as Shanghai entersthe twerty-first century. Shanghai's 1988 per capita income of Y 4,501 wasthe highest in China and compares with the national average of Y 1,081.

1.6 To meet expected population growth will require major additions tothe municipality's housing, infrastructure and other facilities includingtransport, in which there are presently major deficits.11 In the case ofhousing, for example, under assumptions of slow growth a minimum of 700,000housing units would need to be constructed between 1990 and the year 2010. Astronger economy and higher rate of growth would generate demand for 1.6 mil-lion units over the same period.

1.7 Relatively high pressures for expansion, and their associateddemands for space and facilities, reflect relatively vigorous ecouomic growthand, potentially, higher municipal revenues to help to finance that growth.Shanghai has open to it a number of options for its future growth. Beyond theimpact of international economic conditions on its growth, the options avail-able to Shanghai, and the particular growth trajectory chosen, will dependlargely upon national and local development objectives, basic policies con-cerning the orientation and openness of the economy, the use and pricing ofland and infrastructure, the success with which domestic and foreign capitalare mobilized for urban development, the imaginativeness and environmentalsensitivity of the municipality's planning, and urban management capacity. Incoping with growth, Shanghai has major Infrastructure deficits to overcome,but it also has opportunities to avoid some of the least desirable features ofmega-cities in the more highly industrialized countries. Among these leastdesirable features, it may be able to avoid the cumulative congestion, pollu-tion and environmental degradation associated with increasing automobile useelsewhere and the massive, often fruitless, investments in expressways androads that result from policies which simply accept, and try to serve,increasing demands for automobile use.

1.8 Affordability and fiscal constraints are a major short-term concern.However, given the economic potential of the city and the absence of severephysical constraints on growth, policies and management capacities will be thekey determinants of the range of options available. This heightens the Impor-tance of strategic support from the Bank Group, and the importance of examin-ing options systematically.

1.9 To assist In exploring options during project preparation, a numberof economic and physical development scenarios were explored.21 Recognizingthat financial constraint would limit the number and scale of the short-term

11 Paved road surface area in Shanghai is equivalent to 2.4 m2 per capitacompared with 6.3 m2 in Beijing and 6.2 m! nationwide. In the 12 urbandistricts in the municipality, road space is only about 5 percent of theland surface; typical urban land use in other major cities of the worldinclude 15 percent or more devoted to roads in developing coumtries, and20 percent to 25 percent in central city areas of developed countries.

21 Sha aiXi:s Develotment Scenarios, Shanghai City Planning and DesignInstitute and Groupe Huit, Shanghai, August 1989 (in Project File--Annex13).

-4.

Investments to be made, the concern was to Identify longer-term options sothat short-term decisions on transport would not preclude any of the importantoptions being pursued later. Using three economic scenarios, with annualgrowth rates for local gross product ranging from 3.9 percent to 8.5 percentfor the period 1987-2005. five physical development scenarios were identified.These ranged from a low-growth highly-controlled 'cenario to a high-growthminimal-guidance scenario.

1.10 The analysis and exploratory planning that went Into developing thescenarios served several Important purposes. First, It helped to ensure thatdecisions on near-term transport investments will not foreclose any importantlonger-term development options (including, for eoxaple, optlons for develop-ing the historically and socially important Bund riverfront and the renewal ofthe downtown area). Second, it helped to heighten an awareness of the extentto which actual population growth and land development are racing ahead ofplanned development, and the importance of responding to this reailtypromptly. Third, it prompted further discussion of the municipality's under-lying development objectiveo, including concerns about the fature quality oflife in the city, environmental quality, and related concerns with efficiency,affordability, the revenue potential of alternative land use and transportstrategies, and the possibility of improving the Aesign, financing and manage-ment of housing projects. Fourth, it laid a foundation for soundly-based,longer-term planning for the municipality which wili be supported throughtechnical assistance during this first metropolitan transport project and insubsequent phases of the Bank's program In Shanghai. Fifth, it helped tohighlight policy issues that need to be addressed promptly as an input forsubsequent planning and investment.

1.11 Key policy issues identified during the foregoing development sce-nario work include (a) the specific economic and social activities to be givenpriority; (b) the extent to which governmental and private (including foreign)capital are to be mobilized to finance metropolitan development; Cc) the meansby which central and municipal governv'nt will share the financing of growthand recurrent expenditure; (d) the extent to which the mobile (or "floating")population (para. 1.4) is to be recognized and servicedt te) the structuringof land use and the pricing of rights to use land; Cf) the prospect of greaterlabor mobility, and the potential consequences of this for the structuring ofland use and the demand for transport; (g) the potential for relocating dis-persed, and often obsolete, industrial facilities in order to achieve moreefficient land use and reduce industrial pollution of the municipality's air,water and land; (h) the potential for improvLng the quality and acceleratingthe pace of essential household resettlement as the city's renovation andgrowth proceed, while minimizing the need for demolition; (i) the priorilAesto be given to individual components of the city's infrastructure (includingtransport), and policies concerning the supply and pricing of essential ser-vices and housings and (j) the ways in which transport and other key compo-nents of infrastructure such as water supply, environmental protection ser-vices, power and telecommunications, are to be used to guide the growth of themetropolitan area, rather than being provided simply to rectify existing defi-clencies and respond to near-term demand.

1.12 Within the transport subsector, issues include Ca) the priorities tobe given to individual modes, including the pedestrian, bicycles, motorcycles,automobiles, buses, light rail, fixed rail rapid transit, ferries, freightmovements (by river and canal, as well as land), and the consequences of this

-5-

for the structuring of land use, energy use, and environmntal quality;(b) the potential for constraining travel demand (in particular an Increasingdemand for automobile use) as inces rises (c) the potential fo& effectiveintermodal planning and management, and the possibility of prowiding serviceswith convenience and flexibility comparable with the automobile, to facilitatea curbing of demand for auto uee (d) the pricing of trasport services andthe financing of -apital investments, tperations and maintenances and (e) theactions !-eeded, lncluding strict enforcement of regulations and user educa-tion, to capture the potentially high returne of modest investments InImproved traffic management.

1.13 Growth and change in the economic base of Shanghai coupled withmajor urban expcnsion will radically alter the structure of the city-.a struc-ture which, over the past 40 years, has ev"lvad on the basis of cycling andwalking as the primary means of transport and has created a melange of secon-dary and tertiary activities which are scattered throughout the urban fabricof the city. These activities are located in buildings originally designedfor other purposes. They are often ill-suited to their needs but locatedwithin easy access by bicycle or on foot to their work force; work force com-mmnities have grown up and become established around these locations. Thedetermining factor in the location of people and activities has therefore beenwalkling or cycling distance between home, often provided by the work unitconcerned, and work.

1.14 As Shanghai moves towards the twenty-first century it faces adilemma. To move away from cycling and walking as the principal means of per-sonal transport would permit the city to develop a more efficient spatialdistribution of activities necessary for it to enter the next century on anequal footing with its neighbors (and competitors) in the Asian PacificRegion. But this involves either (a) rapid motorisation and major expenditureon freeways and the inevitable envLronmertal degradation that accompanies useof motorized vehiclest or (b) massive expenditures on environmentally soundmass transit systems; or (c) combinations of both.

1.15 Retention of cycling would be environmentally sound and more costeffective. However, it is not obvious how to achieve this and still enableShanghai to modernize and expand its economy. There are no examples to referto outside of Holland, where the largest city, Rotterdam, is less than 10 per-cent of the sise of Shanghai and where motorisation levels are high. Clearly,however, solutions must be found which retain and promote the use of cyclingand provide for cost effective mass transit along major expansion corridors.A fuller discussion of the urban transport constraints to growth in Shanghai,and the role of nonmotorised transport, is given in Annex 1. The Bank Group'smodest participation in thls first metropolitan transport project provides animportant opportunity to promote an awareness of these issues and opportuni-ties. The specific investments being supporte4 and the technical assistanceto be provided constitute a first step in relieving bottlenecks and laying asound foundation for longer-term investment in transport and related landdevelopment.

11, URBAN ARANSPORT SECTOR

Present Condition of Urban Transport

2.1 The urban transport system in Shanghai is inadequate for a city ofits size and importance. Purthesaore, the limitations of the system willbecome more pronounced with the city's growth as a population and productioncenter and as a port of entry and egress for overland traffic to its hinter-land. Present problems include an acute shortage of road space, vehicularcongestion on important road freight routes, mixed traffic on most streets androads of the network (leading to low average speeds as bicycles impede motortraffic), an aging and underpowered truck fleet, a ferry fleet in need ofbetter boats, and an overcrowded bus fleet requiring more vehicles and slowedby bicycle traffic. Traffic engineering has taken only preliminary steps inmaximizing flow on the road network. There are few routes reserved for bicy-cles, no priority lanes for buses, and few streets and roads designated exclu-s'vely for motor vehicles.

2.2 In the 12 urban districts of the Shanghai Municipality, the roadspace occupies only about 5 percent of the land surface--the lowest concentra-tion of roads in any major city in the world. The Huangpu River splitsShanghai into two parts, with about 25 percent of th, city's population resid-ing on the eastern side. Until this year, only one tunnel and the ferry sys-tem linked the two sides of Shanghai proper. (The newly completed Yanan Tun-nel will reduce delays in vehicular river crossings but both the new and theold tunnel have only two lanes.) A third fixed crossing in the form of afour-lane vehicular bridge will be commissioned in 1992. The bridge nearestthe city center is located 20 km upstream. Thus, by any standard, Shanghaihas a very limited transport infrastructure.

2.3 Congestion is common throughout the day on the urban road network.The Dapu Lu Tunnel, designed to carry 5,700 vehicles a day, now carries about9,000 per day, with long lines and major delays at peak periods. The innerring road (Zhongshan Road) is heavily congested during a long morning peakperiod, when traffic at several major intersections approaches saturation.The central business district is also heavily congested, slowing bus trafficand impeding bicycles and pedestrians. Furthermore, roads in the centralbusiness district can accommodate only a few trucks operating under speciallicense during an average day. (Other truck traffic is diverted to ZhongshanRoad, with the result that trucks comprise 80 percent of its traffic.) Busi-nesses which depend on truck traffic cannot schedule pick-up and deliveryduring the day in many cases, resulting in efficiency losses for commercialand manufacturing firms. Congestion, rather than the shortage of vehicles,will be the major obstacle to effectlng needed increases in bus passengertransportation, until traffic engineering and management practices givegreater priority to bus transit. Currently, buses on the main city routes areslowed tc the speed of a bicycle during most of the day, and during rushhours, buses and bicycles alone nearly saturate the urban road space. Only4 percent of the nonwalking person trips in Shanghai are taken using forms oftransport other than bicycles and buses. Thus the relief from congestionavailable for most cities in the developing world, namely the diversion ofmotor vehicle traffic to buses, is not immediately available to Shanghai. Thediversion of bicycle traffic to its own network, and the shift of cyclists to

buses, which use road space much more efficiently, are the main possibilitiesfor relieving congestion in Shanghai.

2.4 Shanghai is overwhelmingly a city of walkers and cyclists. In 1986,of the 21 million trips taken each day by the city's then 12 million resi-dents, 38 percent took place on foot and 33 percent via bicycle and othernonmotor vehicle (NHV) modes. Public bus and ferry transport accounted for26 percent of trips; these modes are preferred by people traveling longer dis-tances such as to and from the universities. Quite unlike other large metro-politan areas outside China, cars and motorcycles account for only 3 percentof daily trips.

2.5 Pedestrian and cycle trips as a percentage of total daily trips havebeen increasing over time. Between 1981 and 1989, the proportion of pedes-trian and cycle trips increased from 56 percent to 73 percent, with bicyclesbeing used increasingly as the preferred mode of travel. Bicycles account for18 million of the 25 million vehicle-km (72 percent) traveled each day onShanghai's streets.

2.6 Associated with the predominance of walking and cycling, which hap-pen to be the most environmentally sound modes of urban travel, are relativelyshort travel distances and travel times. The average travel distance is lessthan 5 km and the average travel time is less than 20 minutes. Both are lowcompared with commuting distances and tines in cities of similar size in Asia.Travel costs also are low. However, dependence on this mode of transportmakes it difficult for people and firms to relocate in areas which are beyonda reasonable walking or cycling distance. This in turn impedes efforts tomodernize, improve, or expand the city's housing and economic activities.

Road Network

2.7 The road network in Shanghai does not have sufficient caracity toaccommodate the city's present travel demands, lot alone any increases invehicle flow in the future. The road network in the city proper has notchanged substantially since the 19309. The length of the overall network hasincreased by about 42 percent since 1949, but most of this increase is scat-tered and has taken place in the suburbs and in other expansion areas. Thenetwork is now 3,092 km long.

2.8 The road network is largely saturated, and there is only a limiteddivision or hierarc!4y of road use by function or type of vehicles. Vehiclespeeds rarely exceed 30 km per hour and the average speed is 15 km per hour.Host streets are too narrow to accomnodate two lanes of traffic in each direc-tion, and some roads can only accommodate one lane. Parking space, especiallyfor bicycles, makes further inroads into the limited street space, causingspillovers and obstructing pedestrian walkways and motor vehicle operations.Little road widening or new construction of ro'ds has taken place because ofthe large number of people that would have to be relocated in order to free upadditional road space.

2.9 Road layorts follow the traditional fonm, with cycle tracks adjacentto motor vehicle lanes, or without segregation at all. This arrangement leadsto serious contUcts between bicycles and motor vehicles at intersections andto srowing accident rates. Little appears to have been done to develop segre-

-8-

gated motor vehicle and nonmotor vehicle networks in new housing areas, suchas happens in the Netherlands, for example.

Traffic Engineering and Control

2.10 A large part of the congestion in Shanghai also is caused by aninefficient geometric design and poor use of existing streets and intersec-tions. The resulting conflicts that occur between pedestrians, bicycles, andother vehicles at intersections due to lack of channelization contribute tothe high accident rate .n the city. The Shanghai Public Security Bureau(SPSB) has taken several steps to improve the capacity and management of theroad network. For example, it has attempted to separate KM and motor vehicletraffic by designating 10 through streets for exclusive NW use and 13 streetsfor exclusive motor vehicle use during certain hours. It has imposed restric-tions on trucks ueLng city streets within and around the congested CentralBusiness District (CBD). It has imposed restrictions on turning movements at80 intersections and constructed pedestrian overpasses at several major inter-sections. It has lnstalled computer-controlled traffic signals at 135 inter-sections and set up fixed time traffic signals at 364 intersections, and sup-plemented these with traffic police supervision at key intersections. Theseimprovements have undoubtedly Improved the performance of certain sections ofthe net*ork. However, their impact has been undermined by incomplete trafficcontrol measures. For example, at computer-controlled intersections trafficpolice are obliged to control manually the signal timings because the trafficflowing across the detector loops (which feed the signal timing data to thecomputer) is not channelized.

2.11 A further inhibiting factor is the absence of an integrated trafficmanagement strategy. Each municipal district is responsible for managingtraffic within its boundaries and differences in institutional capacity asgdtechnical approach exist among the various districts. The roles and responsi-bilities of the police and the district administration also vary from districtto district which further inhibits a consistent management approach.

2.12 The lack of traffic management is particularly acute within the CBDarea. This area supports the major flows of pedestrian, bicycle, publictransport and commercial traffic in the city. It comprises 230 hectares, hasan estimated population of 337,000, and provides employment for 168,000 per-sons--most of whom are crowded into buildings that were designed in the 1920sfor entirely different purposes. The SPSB has attempted to control trafficalong the most intensively trafficked streets in the CBD through some of themeasures described in para. 2.10. However, it recognizes the need for a morecomprehensive traffic management program. Such a program was developed duringproject preparation and will be implemented as part of this project (paras.3.9-3.12).11

I/ Strateav for Transportation System Hanagement, Shanghai ComprehensiveTransportation Planning Team and Barton-Aschman Associates, Shanghai,September 1989.

-9-

Vehicle Fleet

2.13 The motorized vehicle fleet includes about 200,000 vehicles, themajority of which are trucks (53 percent). The remainder of tae fleet is madeup of cars (20 percent), motorcycles (17 percent), and buses and minibuses(10 percent). Before 1984, the motorized fleet was increasing at a rate of5 percent a years since 1965 it has been increasing at 17.5 percent a year.Cars and motorcycles have experienced the highest rates of growth (about32 percent each). M4uch of the truck fleet consists of inherently slow vehi-cles and the effects of this are exacerbated by poor maintenance.

2.14 The nonmotorized vehicle fleet includes about 6.6 million vehicles,of which 6.5 million are bicycles, which represents a fleet density of onebicycle for every 1.9 inhabitants. This is one of the highest densities inthe world. Since 1983, the bicycle fleet has been increasing at a rate ofabout 16 percent a year on average.

Public Transport

2.15 Public transport in Shanghai is a major public enterprise. TheShanghai Transit Company (STC) runs one of the largest bus operations in theworld. It employs more than 75,000 workers and manages a fleet of about 5,500busec. In 1988, daily passenger boardings were estimated to be around 15.3mi.lion. Buses account for 56 percent of the nonwalking person trips inShanghai City, and 42 percent of such trips in the municipality as a whole.This translates into about 7 million trips per day in the city and 9 milliontrips in the whole municipality. On the inner-ring road, bus passenger tripsduring peak periods approach 30,000 per hour; on some other major thorough-fares, they are nearly 20,000. On most city streets, however, throughput ofbus passengers is relatively low and speeds are slow despite wide spacingbetween stops.

2.16 The operating speed of buses is low--averaging 8 km per hour in theinner city, which is about the speed of bicycles. Bus routes are fixed andare fairly extensivel 280 routes covering 4,500 route-km in the metropolitanarea. The transfer rate is high; 90 percent of passengers have to transferfrom one bus to another at least once (in other cities the transfer raterarely exceeds 40 percent). Bus ridership has increased at an average rate ofabout 6 percent a year and is expected to continue growing at about this ratein the future.

2.17 Since 1986, the financial condition of STC has deteriorated to thepoint where it no longer has the funds required to renew its fleet (let aloneexpand it). Before 1990, STC's fares had not been increased since 1949despite significant inflation in costs, especially labor costs, since 1980.In real terms, fares declined by 40 percent between 1986 and 1989. To meetits wage bill alone, STC currently requires an nnual subsidy of Y 180 million($38.2 million). Following a recent study on bus transportation inShanghai 2/ carried out during project preparation, a 100 percent increasein fares was introduced. Further analyses are needed to develop practical

21 Bus Trans ortation in Shan&ais Sto ling the Decay, Richard Darbera andBenmard icot, Paris, November 15, 1989.

-10-

policies to balance costs with revenues and to diversify the supply of busservices to meet demand better (pdra. 3.38 (b)(iv)).

2.18 Perry service is the dominant form of transport linking the twoparts of Shanghai across the Huangpu River. Currently, the ferry is the onlycross-river service available for pedestrians and bicyclists, and it alsohandles heavy vehicle traffic. About 1 million persons per day use the ferryservice, which operates 20 lines and 65 ferries for passengers, and 5 lineswith 20 ferries for vehicles. Only one line is open to bicyclists. Con-gestion is not a major problem for passenger service, but weather conditionssometimes interrupt service. Long vehicle delays are common on some of thevehicle ferry lines.

Freight Movemnts

2.19 Some 70 percent of domestic cargo generatod by the port of Shanghaiis transported by trucks. This amounts to about 100 million metric tons annu-ally. The port handles 60 percent of all goods moving in and out of the SMRand accounts for 99 percent of its total foreign trade. Shanghai port facili-ties generate 11,000 daily truck movements with the major concentration andcongestion at downtown terminals. At these terminals, truck traffic variesbetween 700 trucks per day (at Gaoyang) and 1,400 trucks per day (at Huishan).Within the SMR, average haul distance is 12 km, and each truck carries sixloadp per day on average. The average size of trucks is eight tons, and theirdesign is limited by the minimum standards of the urban road network.

2.20 Street access to downtown terminals is very narrow and with fore-casted traffic increases in the range of 3 to 4 percent per year, the futuredaily accumulated delays and related costs could be severe. Due to congestionand the narrowness of the road network within the CBD, truck movements arerestricted between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. All trucks are banned during this periodexcept for those registered by city enterprises (about 25 percent) which areentitled to a special pass permitting access to the restricted area.

2.21 Truck restrictions in the CBD area and the lack of adequate cross-ings to the east bank of the Huangpu River oblige trucks to use Zhongshan Road(which is the only continuous by-pass route with sufficient road width andgeometric design standards to accommodate trucks). The channeling of trucksalong the Zhongshan Road corridor is causing congestion and the need forurgent improvement measures to avoid blocking access to the Shanghai port.

Traffic Safety

2.22 Traffic signs are used extensively throughout the city to regulatetraffic movements and promote safety. Unfortunately, their effect is limitedby the poor discipline of drivers and cyclists and the lack of enforcement andassociated traffic engineering measures. Tne SPSB has begun a campaign toeducate road users on the recently published highway code and associated lawsand regulations.

2.23 The incidence of traffic fatalities in Shanghai is high--ten timesthat of Tokyo and five times higher than Tianjin--and is increasing at about9 percent a year. About 3,400 fatalities were registered on Shanghai's roadnetwork between 1984 and 1988. The high rate of fatalit'es in due to the

-11-

large proportion of pedestrians and cyclists Oat risk in the traffic networkand to delays in providing first aid to accident victims.

2.24 To improve the monitoring of accidents and provision of aid to vic-tims, the SPSB developed a traffic safety improvement program with technicalassistar-e during project preparation.31 The program is being establishedas a pi" L effort in one district in Shanghai and will be replicated laterthroughout the city if the results are favorable (a part of this program isincluded in the project--see para. 3.12 and Annex 2).

Urban Transport Policy

2.25 Present urban transport policy in Shanghai recognises the adverseeffects of present traffic conditions on economic development and social prog-ress in general. In addressing these concerns priority is given to upgradingurban transport infrastructure and improving management of the traffic system.These goals were addressed during preparation through four interrelatedapproaches (a) formulation of a long-term perspective, (b) support for short-term infrastructure projects, (c) traffic management measures, and (d) usereducation.

2.26 The long-term solutions to the city's transport problems shouldinclude a more efficient structuring of land use in existing built-up areas,guided Land development in new growth areas (incluJing measures to create newsubcenters of activity such as Pudong, east of the Huangpu River, that willrelieve the pressures on the congested city center), multimodal transportdevelopment, to optimize the use of each mode (including a modern, grade-separated expressway system and a high-capacity mass transit system) and soundtraffic management. Because all these changes cannot be effected immediately,the limited resources available for major construction are concentrated on afew strategic projects wvihin each five-year planning cycle. At the sametime, small-scale low-cost improvements are being made to make better use ofexisting facilities and improve the management of the system.

2.27 During the previous five-year planning period (1986-90), investmentwas to be concentrated in six priority projects: (a) construction of thefirst subway line; (b) construction of an elevated viaduct along the mostcongested section of Zhongshan Road; (c) providing a grade separation for aninitial intersection and railway crossing on Cao Qi Road; (d) construction ofVusong Dam Bridge (completed in April 1991); (e) completion of Yanan Tunnel(completed in 1989); and (f) initiating construction of Nanpu Bridge. For thenext period (1991-95), local planners have identified the following priorityareas: (a) construction of a second subway line; (b) extension of theZhongshan Road viaduct; (c) improving highway links to the interior;(d) improvements to inner-city road infrastructure; and (e) development ofPudong and its associated river crossings.

2.28 The Shanghai authorities emphasize bolstering public transport andlimiting the growth of bicycles, motorcycles, and private cars. To make bet-

3/ Report on Safety, Shanghai Comprehensive Transportation Planning Team andBarton-Aschman Associates, Shanghai, September 1989.

-12-

ter use of existing facilities, several traffic management initiatives areproposed. Some of these include establishing further exclusive NKV routes inand around the CBD, resiting illegally-located street markets and vendors,introducing regulations to promote CBD freight deliveries at night, intro-ducing staggered working hours, rationalizing bus routes, and enforcing traf-fic regulations.

2.29 The difficulties involved in urban transport planning for Shanghaiwill call for considerable cooperation and patience on the part of the localpopulation. For one thing, the improvements needed in the transport systemvill not be cheap, and new eou'tces of revenue will be needed to finance them.Possible sources under consideratio0. are a purchase tax on vehicles, a better-ment tax for road improvemnts and constructiG", and road development taxes.Second, even limited road widening and construction activities require exten-sive demolition and resettlement. Fortunately, the municipality has hadextensive experience with large-scale resettlement and the ongoing resettle-ment program provides relocated households with housing and communiL' facili-ties substantially better than those they had previously. Closer coordinationbetween the municipality and the dLstrict cormittess will be required in orderto achieve effective traffic management.

2.30 The Shanghai authorities have utilized technical advice from trafficand transportation experts outside of China. Since 1983, Australia, France,Japan, Swed-*A, and the Unlted States have provided technical assistance toShanghai in the areas of traffic management, computer-controlled traffic sig-naling, bus route planuing, network modeling, traffic safety, public transportfinancing, transport corridor development, bridge design, and urban growthanalysis. This technical assistance has provided the basis for discussionswith the Bank Group on assistance to the sector. Since 1988 the body of know-ledge on the urban transport sector in Shanghai has significantly increased asa result of project preparation.

2.31 Independently, the Shanghai authorities have carried out consider-able work in the management of bicycles and other nonmotorized vehicles.Streets have been designated for exclusive NMV use, an idea which has provedto be remarkably cheap, simple, and effective. They have erected simple bar-riers or fences to channel ?KVs along streets which are used by motorizedvehicles. They also have developed well-designed pedestrian bridges at com-plex junctions in and around the CID. These efforts provided the basis forBank assistance to the nonmotorized sector wLthin the proposed project (pars.3.10).

2.32 Extensive knowledge of urban growth in Shanghai has been gleanedfrom the recent analysis of urban development scenarios in the city (para.1.9). However, the network modeling,and urban growth components of the analy-sis have not yet advanced far enough to foretell the effects of infrastructureinvestment decisions on future development and growth. Therefore, onlyimprovements to the existing system may be coneidered with any confidence atthis time. Bank assistance in the sector is currently being limited to prior-ity investments coupled with technical assistance to prepare for the planningand management of future growth and further development of ongoing networkmodeling and urban growth analyses. The Institutionalization of an ad hoctaak force, the Shanghai Comprehensive Transportation Planning Team (SCTPT)into a Shanghai City Comprehenive Transport Planning Institute (SCCTPI), came

-13-

about as a result of experience gained by the Shanghai Municipal Government(SMG) during project preparation (para. 2.37). and is expected to bring aboutmajor changes in urban transport policy in Shanghai and possibly in China as awhole.

Urban Transport Institutions

2.33 The present weaknesses in Shanghai's transport system are compoundedby two institutional factors--fragmentation in the structure of sector insti-tutions, which hinders rational planning and operations, and inadequate finan-cing mechanisms, which inhibits investment and maintenance. Five entities areprominent in the city's transportation sectors (a) the Planning Codission,

(b) the Construction Comiission, (c) the Public Security Bureau, (d) theFinance Bureau, and (e) the Municipal Transportation Office. The Sbtnghai

Municipal Planning Commission (SMPC) is responsible for managing the city'sresources, a task which includes establishing overall development policy andplanning, development budget allocation, and creating special projects. Itreports to the Shanghai People's Standing Committee. The Shanghai MunicipalConstruction Commission (SMCC) is responsible for land use planning, environ-mental protection, and the design, construction, operation, and maintenance ofthe city's infrastructure throutgh various bureaus, divisions, and institutes.The Shanghai Public Security Bureau (SP8B) is responsible for traffic manage-ment and enforcement. The Shanghai Finance Bureau (SFB) is responsible formunicipal fiscal affairs. The Shanghai Municipal Transportation Office (SMTO)oversees all trucking operations and nonroad transport enterprises. Chart 1illustrates the organization of Shanghai Municipal Government and its numeroustransportation-related agencies.

2.34 Urban Transport Administration. Fragmentation in the road transportsubsector is evident in the independent planning of highway, bus, and freighttransport operations. Similarly, the planning and operation of passengertransport services is carried out separately for buses and the planned subwaysystem. The recently introduced traffic management function is conductedseparately from the transport operations functLon, and both functions arehandled independently by the 12 administrative districts within the city.Sectoral fiscal policies and arrangements for development financing also arefragmented.

2.35 The absence of an Integrated approach to management has hamperedcoordination, restricted cost-effective remedies, and prevented the develop-ment of efficient planning mechanisms. As a result, the recent expansion andmodernization of Shanghai's urban areas have occurred without adequate atten-tion to the need for greater efficiency in land use and the establishment of agrowth pattern that will be sustainable and environmentally sound, or the needfor a systematic upgradLng of the municipality's multimodal transport system.Most of the solutions proposed to date emphasize large-scale corridor improve-ments and mass transit approaches, both of which carry large inlvestment andoperational costs.

2.36 Since 1985, the Bank Group and various bilateral donors have pro-vided assistance to Shanghai in the city's effort to (a) develop specifictools for integrated transport planning and analysis; and (b) introduce low-cost management techniques and systems. Efforts have centered on two rela-tively new units--SCTPT and the Traffic Management Division (TMD) of SPSB.

-14-

SCTPT was an ad hoc task force of staff seconded from agencies interested intransport planning, and located under the Shanghai Construction Commission'sCity Planning and Design Institute (SCPDI). TMD is a structural unit of theShanghai Public Security Bureau (SPSB).

2.37 The experience with comprehensive transportation planning has beensufficiently encouraging to lead to the transformation of SCTPT into a perma-nent agencys the Shanghai City Comprehensive Transport Planning Institute(SCCTPI). This institute was established in December 1990 and is responsiblefor comprehensive transportation planning and research as well as the guidanceand coordination of urban transport planning. This is an institutional reformof long-term and potentially major significance. Its development thereforewill be supported as part of the proposed project (para. 3.18(b)(i) and Annex3).

2.38 SPSB's Traffic Management Division (TMD) is responsible for trafficengineering, traffic safety, and enforcement of traffic regulations in two ofShanghail's 12 urban districts. Traffic management in the remaining urbandistricts and counties is carried out to varying degrees by traffic squadsreporting to district or county-level public security bureaus. Unlike inother prominent cities in China, the TMD in Shanghai is a lower-echelon agencylacking in authority. It has little expenditure-responsibility other than forsignalization, signing and marking, and depends on cooperation from theShanghai Municipal Engineering Administration Division (SMEAD) of the variousdistricts to undertake even minor civil works. However, its planning andoperational capabilities have been strengthened by technical assistance fromAustralia and more recently, from the United States. Further assistance wouldbe provided to TMD under the technical assistance described below (para.3.18(a)(i) and Annex 3).

2.39 Financial Aspects. SMG has difficulty raising capital and fundingcurrent expenditures for urban services which are not revenue producing.Revenue forecasts are diffL..lt because it is difficult to obtain a comprehen-sive picture of munic!.pal revenues at any one point in time. Because localtaxation was a rarity in the past, the fiscal systems and capacity for finan-cial management in Sanghai are not equipped to handle the increased revenueand expenditure autho:ity that has been granted to local governments since1983. SMG itself has no borrowing authority and must rely on the borrowingsof the enterprises and financial entities it controls. Taxation systems arestill underdeveloped, relying on the emerging corporate income and salestaxes. Taxes are not administered uniformly, and concessions are common.User fees, where applied, generally have not kept pace with inflation and areinsufficient to cover the cost of operations. The resource allocation andbudget administration functions axe complicated by a multiplicity of extrabud-getary funds that are managed by compissions and bureaus independent of themuicipal treasury.

2.40 User fees are a significant source of income and have the potentialto finance a growing proportion of investment needs. Until the recent fareincrease, both the bus and ferry companies were incurring losses on opera-tions, on annual sales of services of about Y 325 million by the bus companyand Y 30 million by the ferry company. It was estimated during appraisal thatto make up their deficits and cover their own investment costs, bus and ferryfees would have to increase the fare by about 75 percent. Subsequently, fares

were increased by 100 percent in October 1990. For the ferry company, theincrease in fees would have to be borne mainly by pedestrians and cyclists,who pay very low rates and are heavily cross-subsidized by ferry motor-vehicletraffic. Other direct user fees are tolls on tunnels and bridges, whichamounted to Y 24 million and Y 8 million, respectively, in 1987. With theYanan Tunnel completed and three new crossings planned before the turn of thecentury, tolls could become a major revenue source, equal perhaps to 5 percentof the total annual transport investment. Shanghai also levies taxes on vehi-cles and transport that could be considered as user fees for transport infra-structure. These are (a) The Highway Maintenance Fee, a tax on vehicle andboat use, which yielded Y 413 million in 1907; (b) the bicycle tax, which willyield about Y 10 million per year; and (c) other vehicle taxes (vehicle andboat utilization tax) which yielded Y 388 milLion. In total user fees otherthan bus and ferry fares yield about Y 900 mlllion ($191 million) per year.By international standards, road transport users in Shanghai pay a high per-centage of transport costs.

2.41 City revenues may be enhanced by improved administration, new taxes,and greater reliance on user fees and borrowing. Land use fees and annualproperty taxes represent a relatively untapped atd buoyant source of revenue.Regardless of the sources chosen, the task of evaluating appropriate measureswill be a complex one requiring extensive study and testing. Because theissue of revenue enhancement extends beyond the sphere of transportationinvestments to encompass all municipal services, a sectorally focused projectsuch as this one is not considered the most suitable domain for addressingthis issue.

Determination of Urban Transport Priorities

2.42 The first priority in improving the urban transport system must beto use the existing infrastructure as efficiently as possible. Shanghai hasdeveloped a traffic assignment model, which could be a valuable tool in iden-tifying and evalaating the many small investments that are needed to getgreater service from the present system. Examples of these small investmentsare link roads, NMV systems, bus priority routes, and minor engineering works.

2.43 Shanghai is now undertaking a major investment in a metro line whichwill serve a route of 17 km. Other lines are being planned. The expectedcost of the present line is approximately $50 million per km. To put this sumin perspective, the 17-km line comprises about one half of Shanghai's entiretransport investment in the current five-year plan. It is therefore doubtfulthat such an expensive mode can be the core of the urban transport system forpassengers in Shanghai.

2.44 Recovering the costs of the ongoing Shanghai metro project is ofparticular concern. This project is now under construction and cannot behalted. Although its alignment serves areas in and around the CBD and there-fore does nct affect long-term growth options, the project nevertheless couldhave a significant influence on the development of the inner city and itsassociated public transport service. Shanghai authorities are consideringrecovering some of the cost of the metro investment by taxing the enterprisesthat will benefit from proximity to the new m:ne. The Bank Group supportsthis idea in principle and will explore with Shanghai authorities other costrecovery options such as fees for land use rights in the vicinity of metro

-16-

stations during execution of the proposed metropolitan transport project.During negotiations assurances were obtained that SMG would furnish to theAssociation commencing June 30, 1292, details of the municipality's medium-tenm transuortation investment plan and subsequent annual investment plan8.for the Associaticn's review and comments.

2.45 Planning for all high-density corridor movement systems, includingmetro, is expected to start immediately, using the traffic assignment model,among other tools, so that an alternative is available before the second metroline is due to start construction. Halting metro planning without some high-volume alternative is unreasonable, as is opting for such an expensive systemas metro without studying all relevant alternatives. Planning for all high-density corridor movement systems, including metro, would be supported bytechnical assistance provided under the proposed project and include dueemphasis on public transportation (see para. 3.18(b)(ii) and Anne.: 3).

2.46 Shanghai must improve its plan for the expansion of population andemployment, with realistic and affordable transport infrastructure to supportthis growth. At present there is no secure basis for estimating future popu-lation growtb. Statistical work has concentrated on the registered (i.e.,official and permanent) population. The mobile population, which makes up alarge and growing share of the city's actual residents, has been studied onlyperiodically on an ad hoc basis. Thus, reasonable estimates of the growth ofthe mobile population can vary widely, which introduces a wide range into theprojections of total population. A plausible method for narrowing this rangeis required, based on firmer analysis of the trends in the mobile population.

2.47 With improved population projections, Shanghai will be in a positionto improve plans for the expansion of its urbanized areas. Shanghai's offi..cial "Comprehensive Development Plan' is already out of date due to populationgrowth and location decisions that are inconsistent with its basic assump-tions. A new framework, the draft Development Scenario (DS), is still heavilyinfluenced by normative considerations of land use, but it takes a more real-istic view of actual population growth and location developments. Like theComprehensive Plan, however, the DS incorporates plans for major infrastruc-tural links which are not costed out. Cost considerations were not dominanteither in the conception of the use of space or in the resulting requirementfor trunk infrastructural links.

2.48 In addition to the roads necessary for its own expansion, Shanghairequires upgraded and expanded links to its economic hinterland. Shanghai,Zhejiang, and Jiangsu, the adjoining provinces, are becoming increasinglyintegrated economically, and industrial spectialization will further increasecommerce throughout the Yangtze Delta area. Both road and water links southfrom Shanghai are fully used. Two major projects in the plans for r-st-1992--the Shanghai-Hangzhou Highway and the Shanghai-Quingpu-Ping Vang Highway--willadd needed capacity on this corridor. The planned Jiangsu Road investment andthe Nanjing Highway investment, major elements in the post-1991 investmentlist, are also required to serve Shanghai's dense economic hinterland andhandle traffic to and from its port. Work on an outer ring road, particularlyto the west and north of the city, is also important, partly as a defensivemeasure, At present, the natural route of most of the traffic from Jiangsu

-17-

and Zhejiang Provinces includes travel on Zhongshan Road, which is alreadyhighly congested and serves a beltway function for the city proper. A secondring road would also serve the present industrial and Northern RailwayTerminus area, which is heavily congested with traffic transiting to the port.Shanghai cannot afford to accommodate this traffic via Zhongshan Road, sinceit is needed to serve the traffic needs of the city proper.

2.49 Major increases in traffic volumes can be expected between the newindustrial and residential areas of the city and the central business dis-trict. This was recogaSnized in the present plan, which in-luded both the NanpuBridge, Yanan Tunnel, and another proposed Huangpu River crossing at Ninguo.These additions were designed partly to address the need. for integrationbetween the city center and the East Bank (Pudong). Similarly, westwardexpansion, proceeding faster than planned, will require added capacity onstreets and roads into the c.tty, and its own economic development willincrease the covmercial and industrial traffic load in the inner city.

2.50 Plans must be wade to handle this new traffic within the city, par-ticularly traffic arising from the river crossings, which will dump a concen-trated stream of traffic onto the west bank of the Huangpu River, where thereis no major highway to receive it. The planned North-South Corridor develop-ment is needed on about the same schedule that the Nanpsa and Ninguo projectsare completed. Otherwise traffic from the east bank will begin to competewith present downtown traffic, even though its destination is not the citycenter. Other improvements in major traffic corridors also will be needed,although present studies do not yet support any particular choices. Studiesare included in the proposed project to analyze urban transport investmentpriorities (para. 2.45). A more detailed analysis of urban transport con-straints to growth in Shanghai is given in Annex 1.

Environmental Pollution

2.51 The urban transport sector is not a major cause of air pollution inShanghai due to the relatively small size of the motorized vehicle fleet.Limited data exists on vehicle emisslons but the predominance of truck move-ments would suggest potential problems from diesel emissions. Some 60 percentof the present bus fleet is gasoline powered which would suggest mitor concen-trations of vehicle emission pollution along certain corridors with high-density bus flows.

2.52 The Shanghai Environtmental Protection Bureau is responcible forvehicle emission regulation and control. The predominance of cycling andwalking coupled with 30 percent of the bus fleet being electric powered pro-vides Shanghai with far fewer vehicle emission problems than a city of itssize elsewhere. However, a transition toward motorization (in the form ofmotorcycles, cars, or diesel buses) could radically alter this comparativelyesafe" situation. Moreover, the city air is polluted from industrial anddomestic sources (particularly coal-burning stoves and boilers in winter).although such less so than more northerly cities, but any increase in pollu-tion from vehicle emissions could aggravate the situation. Hence, it is nottoo soon to prepare for environmentally safe solutions to the rising demands

-18-

for mobility. In this respect the measures taken and proposed by the Shanghaiauthorities to provide priority for bicycles are to be encouraged.

Bank's Urban Sector Lendin Strategy and Role in Shan&hai

2.53 Shanghai's prominent role in the economy of the Yangtze EconomicZone (which currently accounts for some 23 percent of the nation's GNP) under-scores its long-term ambition to recover its former position as a leadingcenter of manufacturing, trade and finance in the Pacific Rim. (The YangtzeEconomic Zone covers the provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui, and theMunicipality of Shanglai.) To thiV end, Shanghai's medium-term developmentplans envisage a period of sustained economic growth underpilnned by a programof structural reform and redevelopment of its industrial and financial sec-tors. Currently, the city is experimenting with a broad range of reform ininductrial management, foreign trade, pricing, land management, and housingproduction, as well as fiscal and financial sector reforms. The role of urbaninfrastructure and housing in Shanghai's attainment of its economic and socialgoals is crucial. For example, the restructuring of industry will most cer-tainly entail locational changes determined increasingly by market forces.Both tlxis trend and the changing role of central city land use from residen-tial to commercial uses, in addition to population growth, will dictate theestablishment of new residential areas and generate new travel patterns.Servicing of these new and redeveloped areas will require significant depar-tures from the city's current, inflexible land use plans and establishedinfrastructural networks.4/ Planning and financing such new urban servicesand land development (in addition to dealing with existing backlogs in ser-vices following years of neglect) will be a major task for the city, requiringalso concomitant strengthening of the muticipal management system, its publicservice institutions, and their financing mechanisms.

2.54 The complex task of design and management of an integrated economicand social reform program in Shanghai is currently being assisted by the Bankand UNDP. In February 1991, an international workshop was held to discuss thepotential and directions of Shanghai's growth and to explore the requireddevelopment policy options. As a result the city has established a ligh-levelleading group chaired by the mayor to collaborate with the Bank, UNDP, and keycentral government core agencies. The role of the leading group is to attemptto develop integrated policies and measures for a comprehensive reform programfor the furtherance of Shanghai's key industrial and financial sector reforms,trade, labor and price reforms, housing and infrastructure reforms, and fiscalreform. The policy framework and a monitorable implementation action plan forthe medium term is expected to evolve through research and deliberation overthe next one to two years. The action plan would be expected to provide acoordinated basis for the guidauce for institutional development and sectoralplanning as well as investment selection.

41 The Bank is financing several projects in the Shanghai area (power,transport, agriculture, industry, sewerage, and port improvement). Allthese investments affect to some degree demand for urban transportation.

-19-

2.55 The Bank's urban sector lending strategy In China is to (a) assistthe Government in planning and prioritizing needs for urban services, housing,and enviroanental protection, and to prepare cost-effective projects; (b) helpstrengthen institutions responsible for planning, preparing, constructing, andoperating urban services and environmental protection through support fororganizational improvement and staff training; (c) promote sound financial andcost recovery policies for urban services; and (d) help develop sector poli-cies and strategies conducive to eficient urban development, operation ofurban services, and enhancement of environmental quality supportive of China'soverall reform program. In areas of urban planning, finance, and management,China looks to the Bank Group for transfer of experience gained !.n other coun-tries. No urban projects have been completed in China to date and experiencehas yet to be evaluated. The ongoing Shanghai Sewerage Project (Loan 2794-CHA/Credit 1779-CHA, 1987) has been implemented satisfactorily to date.

Rationale for Bank Group Involvement

2.56 The proposed project would consolidate the institutional developmentwhich has occurred in the spatial planning and urban transport planning,implementation, and management fields through earlier bilateral and Bsank tech-nical assistance. It is an important component of the overall economic devel-opment plan of Shanghai. It represents an initial phase of investment in thephysical capacity as well as the in.titutional capacity required to meet thecity's current and future transportation needs. The financial impacts of thecity's overall transportation investment plans and othaer infrastructuralinvestment requirements over the medium term are expected to be considerable.The Bank Group's unique resources and extensive experience in urban develop-ment and lianagement (and urban transport planning and development in particu-lar) have contributed significantly towards an improved sectoral investmentplanning capacity in Shanghai and towards the definition of least-cost solu-tions. Continued assistance as proposed under the project (para. 3.18) couldhelp Shanghai resolve more efficiently not only its urban transport problems,but also the increasingly complex intersectoral issues facing the city alongits path towards reform and opening to the outside world, as well as in itsdesire to raise the living standards of its population.

-20-

III. THE PROJECT

Proiect Origin and Formulation

3.1 The proJect was identified Qn May 1988. At that time, the Shanghaiauthorities presented three large infrastructural investments for possibleBank Group financings (a) a tunnel under the Huangpu River, at Ninguo; (b) avladuct running north-south in the city center (Cbengdu)l and (c) .n urbanring road (Zhongshan). Given the complexity of the transport sector inShanghai, the Bank Group considered it necessary to examine these and otherfuture Investments vithin the context of a comprehensive and realistic deve-lopment strategy for the Shanghai Metropolitan Region (SMR). The Shanghaiauthorities therefore initiated, with Bank Group assistance, a series of eightstudies during project preparation, using technical assistanc-e financed by theFrench Consultant Trust Funds, the U.S. Trade and Development Program (TDP),and the Japanesa Grant Facilitv. These studies added to the base of knowledgeon the urban sector in Shauanai provided by studies financed by the AustralianInternational Development Assistance Bureau (AIDAB) and carried out between1983 and 1985. The eight most recent studies include the following:

(a) an analysis of Urban Transport Finances and Investments;(b) the development of Land Use Scenarios for Transport Forecasts;(c) the development and application of an urban transport model;(d) preparation of Road Safety and Traffic Regulation Programs;(e) preparation of a Traffic Systems Management (TSK) Program;(f) a study if bus and ferry company operations;(g) an analysis of the Zhen Xi pilot land development project; and(h) prefeasibility and feasibiiity studies of major transport invest-

ments (North-South Corridor and Zhongshan Inner-Ring Road).

3.2 Of the three investments initially proposed, the Zhongshan InnerRing Road was retained in the proposed project; however, the length of viaductincluded has been reduced from 10.7 km to 5.5 km, which was the most congestedsection of the inner-ring road (see Annex 4). The Chengdu Cross-City Viaduct,which would require massive demolition and relocation (5,500 families and110,000 am of building space for 3.6 km of viaduct), and the proposed NinguoTunnel are being reexamined in light of the findings of the above studies andthe fact that a major bridge across the Huangpu River (Nanpu Bridge) is nowunder construction, financed by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). In addi-tion, a comprehensive traffic safety and management program was introducedinto the program.

3.3 The project has been prepared by several Shanghai engineering designinstitutes with asiistance from foreign consultants lf funded by the FrenchConsultant Trust Fund. The Zhongshan Inner-Ring Road was prepared by SMECCand Shanghai Municipal Engineering Design Institute (SMEDI). The trafficmanagement component was prepared by SPSB, SC?DI. and SNEAD with the assis-tance of consultants 21 funded under the Japan Grant Facility. The project

11 ICZOM and Group Huit, France.

21 Barton and Ascbman, United States.

-21-

preparation teams have been coordinated by the Shanghai Construction Commis-sion (SCC). Feasibility studies for the project components have been com-pleted and reviewed by the Bank Group. Local and foreign consultants havebeen engaged to carry out final detailed designs. Bid documents for bothinternational and local competitlve bidding have been completed for theZhongshan Inner-Ring Road. The present project was appraised in October 1989and the appraisal findings were updated in February 1991. The negotiations ofthe development credit were held April 8-12, 1991. Tha delegation of thePeople's Republic of China was led by Mr. Luo Qing, Dlrector of the World BankDepartment, Ministry of Finance.

Project Objectives

3.4 The principal objective of the project is to provide the basis fordeveloping an efficient urban transport system in the Shanghai MetropolitanRegion (SMR). In order to meet this objective, the project is designed toachieve the followingt

(a) increase capacity, reduce congestion, and improve efficiency in thetransport network; and

(b) improve the planning, programming, financing, and management of theurban transport system in Shanghai.

3.5 The project would represent the first stage of a long-term programintended to upgrade and develop the urban transport infrastructure of Shanghaiin order to meet the demands generated by modernization of the local economy.The project would contribute to this program by introducing innovative trafficmanagement measures (including nonmotor vehicle measures and the first high-capacity busway in China), upgrading a critical section of the city's primaryarterial network, and providing technical assistance in urban transport plan-ning and programming. The project would support the municipality's desire toreplace the present fragmented institutional structure by creating a high-level comprehensive transport planning institute, to be responsible for urbantransportation planning and policies.

Proiect Descrigtion

3.6 The proposed project includes three principal components:

(a) Major Road Investments ($131.9 million);

(b) Traffic Management and Safety ($11.7 million): and

(c) Technical Assistance ($4.6 million).

Major Road Investments

3.7 This component consists of the Zhongshan Inner-Ring Road, involvingalmost 90 percent of project costs. It includes construction of a 5.5-km via-duct and a series of surface road improvements. During project preparation,SMG agreed with the Bank Group that the initial investment would be limited tothe section of the inner-ring road where congestion is the most severe.

-22-

Alternative measures to improve traffic conditions would be much more costlythan the solution adopted.

3.8 Construction activities for this component will be carried out intwo parts. Part I includes ce-struction of a 5.5-km dual two-lane elevatedviaduct, two entrance and exit ramps, and a ground-level service road. Theviaduct will be located over the present Zhongshan Road, from just south ofJin Sha Jiang Road to north of Hutai Road (IBRD Hap 22042). The entrance andexit ramps will be located at Wuning Road. The seLvice road improvements willbe made on Zhongshan Road for the length of the viaduct. The improvementsinclude four motor vehicle lanes (dual tw--lane carriageways), two exclusivenonmotor vehicle roads each 4 m in width, two ped.strian walkways each 3 m inwidth, and construction of temporary service roads of approximately 5 km oneach side of Zhongshan Road for traffic diversion during construction of theviaduct. Part 1I includes intersection improvements underneath, and to thenorth and south of the viaduct, widening of Zhongshan Road for 1.5 kilometersjust south of the viaduct, including improvement of a bridge over the SuzhouCreek. The total improvements on Zhongshan Road would be 10.7 km. Furtherdetails are provided in Annex 4.

Traffic Safety and Management

3.9 This component is a six-year (1992-97) program of small-scaleimprovement, traffic engineering, and control measures designed to meet theoperational needs of three priority action programs and a traffic safety pilotprogram. These action programs include (a) the nonmotor vehicle (NWV) actionprogram; (b) the CBD action program; and (c) the north-south corridor (NSC)action program. These very low-cost improvements, identified with Bank Groupsupport, will bring about major increases in efficiency in the use of theexisting road network and will enhance the environmental quality of the down-town area. The programs are described below and are presented in more detailin Annex 2.

3.10 The Nonmotor Vehicle (NKV) Action Program includes establishing anexclusive NKV route network 19.4 km long in and around the Central BusinessDistrict (CBD); it includes construction of an exclusive NMV bridge acrossSuzhou Creek at Puji. The CBD Traffic Management Program involves developinga comprehensive traffic management system for the CBD road network, which is26.2 km long. The North-South Corridor (NSC) Program involves implementingthe first stage of the NSC improvement program. This includes establishing anexclusive busway 1.1 km long along the Waitan and instituting traffic engi-neering and control measures to the north of the recently completed WusongBridge.

3.11 The three action programs provide for six discrete traffic engi-neering and control measurest

(a) provision of about 67 new sets of traffic signals, 27 of which wouldbe linked to the existing Area Traffic Control (ATC) system);

(b) modification of some 19 sets of existing traffic signals, 12 ofwhich would be linked to the present ATC system;

-23.

(c) channelisation of approximately 108 intersections and about 2.2kilometers of streets;

(d) provision of approximately 1,455 sets of traffic signs and associ-ated lane markings along 45.4 km of streets;

(e) construction of six missing links in the proposed NMV network; and

(f) provision of bus priority facilities (including the establishment ofa 1.1 km busway).

3.12 Traffic Safety. This pilot program will provide the Shanghai PublicSecurity Bureau with the equipment needed to: (a) modify procedures for acci-dent reporting and data collection in order to improve the quantity and qual-ity of basic accident data; (b) carry out a computerized analysis of accidentdata in order to identify blackspot locations and contributory factors, anddesign and implement accident -revention measures in the Jing-An District ofShanghai as a pilot case; and (c) identify, design, and execute remedial traf-fic engineering and control measures at specific locations and times of day.Measures which prove to be effective in reducing accidents and injuries in thepilot scheive will be replicated in other city districts as part of a compre-hensive traffic safety program. Further details are provided in Annex 2, PartB.

3.13 Resettlement. The project requires the relocation of approximately2,150 families and 200 enterprises. This resettlement is associated with theplanned improvements to Zhongshan Road, and development of the nonmotorizedvehicle (N1V) system in the central part of the city. Annex 5 provldes adetail3d discussion of resettlement under the project and Shanghai's resettle-ment policies. A further elaboration of settlement methods and issues isavailable in the project files. Assurances were provided by SHG at negotia-tions that it will carry out resettlement in accordance with a plan satisfac-tory to the Association. In addition, an understanding was reached with SMGat negotiations regardint the schedule, cost, financing plan, and institu-tional responsibilities and procedures for resettlement associated with theproiect, described in Annex 5.

3.14 The demolition for the Zhongshan Road improvements is required pri-marily to widen the rights-of-way at ground level, construct the viaduct, andwiden and improve selected intersections. The housing to be demolished is amixture of low-standard structures and low-rise housing units. Householdshave no waterborne sewerage, many share communal taps for water supply, andthe area is subject to temporary flooding in the rainy season. Many of themanufacturing enterprises to be relocated are occupying 20- to 50-year-oldfacilities in poor condition. The physical facilities occupied by the retailand service enterprises affected are a mixture of substandard and low-standardunits. No high-rise structures are to be demolished.

3.15 The demolition and resettlement activities associated with the NHVcomponent of the project are limited in scale. They are needed primarily tocreate or widen bicycle and pedestrian rights-of-way and have already beencompleted.

-24-

3.16 Households are to be resettled permanently in projects which incor-porate housing, community facilities such as kindergartens, schools, clinics,shops, recreation facilities, and landscaped open space. Individual housingunits will have indoor kitchens and bathrooms, piped water supply, waterbornesewerage, electricity, and gas. For households, new space is provided at astandard of approximately 4 to 5 oP of floor space per person. For enter-prises, 1 me of new space is to be provided for every square meter of demol-ished space. Enterprises will be consulted on the design of the new space,since they are part of the municipality's ongoing program for resettlement.

3.17 According to the original plan for resettlement, a substantial num-ber of households vould be relocated temporarily at first, but eventually allof them would be resettled permanently (by the end of 1992). The principalconstraints on the scheduling of resettlement have been the time required tonegotiate for suitable land, and shortages of funds for construction. Secon-dary constraints have included shortages of construction materials, erraticdelivery times for materials, and inefficient site management. For the proj-ect, SMG has already arranged to use sites which have been acquired by housingenterprisess they will acquire other land later and reimburse these enter-prises for the land preempted for the project. The agreements reached duringappraisal and confirmed during negotiations were the following: (a) the sitesrequired for relocation will be made available from land already under thecontrol of municipal agencies, thus eliminating delays that might be incurredby acquiring rights over land presently being used by others; (b) the munici-pality will provide the Bank Group with the original survey of households andenterprises and structures in the areas from which households and enterprisesare to be relocated, in order to facilitate proper monitoring of the resettle-ment process and its impact; (c) the municipality will provide the Bank Groupwith the site plans, building designs and specifications, and constructionschedules for resettlement areas, to facilitate both the monitoring of reset-tlement and technical assistance in detailed planning and construction manage-ment; (d) the schedule proposed for demolition and resettlement is that shownin Annex 5; and (e) demolition, resettlement, and the project's other environ-mental impacts will be monitored and evaluated systematically, following theobjectives, performance measures, procedures, and institutional arrangementsdescribed in Annex 5.

3.18 Technical Assistance. The principal objective of this component isto strengthen the SMG's capabilities for planning and implementing urbantransportation measures and effecting improvements in traffic and safety andbus operations. The assistance to be provided would build on the supportprovided in the major studies carried out during project preparation (para.3.1) and falls under two categoriest (a) project implementation support, and(b) urban transport planning and management support. The component providesfor 266 staff-months of foreign technical advisory services and equipmentdescribed below. Outline terms of reference for the activities are preeentedin Annex 3.

-25-

(a) ProJect I.mlementation Support

(i) Project Imlementation AdvisorY Services. In this activity 96staff-months of advisory services will be provided, as follows:46 staff-months to the Inner Rin8 Road Construction Company(IRRCC) for implementing the Zhongshan Ihner-Ring Road; 30staff-months to a team led by the Shanghai Public SecurityBureau (SPSB) for implementing, monitoring, and accounting forthe three traffic management programs (NWN routes, CBD net-works, the first phase of the North-South Coriidor) and toprovide equipment and advisory services for the traffic safetypilot program; and 20 staff-months of project management advis-ory services to IRRCC, together with $50,000 of computer equip-ment for project monitoring and accounting.

(ii) Road Maintenance Support. This activity will provide theShanghai Municipal Snglineering and AdminLstration Department(S4EAD) with the equipment needed to complete a comprehensiveinventory of the condition of streets and other faciliti-e inthe urban area. The data collected will be used to establish acomputerized data bank which will facilitate the preparation ofannual and multiyear maintenance and reconstruction programsand improve the allocation of budget resources. ?he budgetconstraints and large increases ln traffic volume experiencedover the past few years make it essential to Lmprove mainte-nance planning and programming in order to protect the massiveinvestments in transport infrastructure. Two pleces of specia-lized equipment for pavement evaluation will be provided, alongwith training in the use of the equipment. The equipment isexpected to cost $200,000.

(b) Urban Transport Planonin and Management Support

(i) Shanahai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning InstituteSupport. This activity provides for 30 staff-months of techni-cal advisory services to SCCTPI to assist with data collectionand analysis.

(it) Identification of Urban Tranaort-Investment Priorities. Thisactivity calls for 60 staff-months of advisory services to helpthe Shanghai City Comprehensive Transport Planning Institute(SCCTPI) to identify, evaluate, and program transport invest-ment priorities for 1995-2000, taking into account the munici-pality's development prospects for these years.

(i) Preparation of Preliminary Feasibility Studies. This activityInvolves 50 staff-months of advisory services to assist SCCTPIin preparing preliminary feasibility studies for priorityinvestments idcntified by SCCTPI and which would be consideredfor inclusion in a future project.

(iv) Shanghai Transit Company This activity provides for 30 staff-months of technical advisory services to help the ShanghaiTransit Company (STC) improve its bus operations and fare

-26-r

structure. A study of the company carried out during orepara-tion highlighted the need for this support.

Estimated Project Cost

3.19 The proposed project is expected to cost in total about Y 774 mil-lion or $148.3 milllon equivalent as shown in Table 3.1 below, including iden-tifiable taxes of Y 8 million ($1.6 million equivalent). The direct and indi-rect foreign exchange costs are estimated to total about $69.4 million or47 percent of estimated project costs. Base costs are estimated in June 1991prices and include land requisition and resettlement costs and administrationand engineering overheads. Physical contingencies of 10 percent of base costshave been included. Price contingencies have been calculated for foreigncosts using an international price inflation factor of 3.6 percent for allproject years and domestic price inflation factors of 10 percent for 1991,8 percent for 1992, and 5 percent per year thereafter.

3.20 The estimated costs for the Major Roads Improvement component arebased on work quantities calculated from detailed designs and unit pricescomputed on the basis of SMGse standard manuals for construction costing.Details are provided in Annex 6. The estimated costs of the Traffic Safetyand Management component are based on quantities calculated from preliminaryengineering designs and standard unit costs (Annex 2). The technical assis-tance costs are based on recent contracts for similar consulting services.

Table 3.1s PROJECT COST ESTIMHTES

Estimated Cost ($ million) PercentEstimated Costs Local Foreign Total Cost (2)

Major arterial roads 55.2 52.0 107.1 88.7Traffic safety & mgmt. 6.8 2.7 9.4 7.8Technical assistance 0.0 4.2 4.2 3.5

Base cost 'June 1991) 61.9 58.9 120.8 100.0

Physical contingencies 6.2 5.5 11.7 9.7Price contingencies 10.7 5.1 15.8 13.1

Total Project Cost la 78.8 69.4 148.3 122.7

la Including identifiable taxes of Y 8.07 million ($1.55 million equivalent).

Project Financln Plan

3.21 The detaLls of the project financing are shown in Table 3.2 below.An IDA Credlt of SDR 44.4 million ($60 million equivalent) would finance about40 percent of the total net project costs. At negotiations, assurances wereobtained that (a) the proceeds of the development credit would be made avail-

-27-

able to SMG urder arrangements satisfactory to the Association, and (b) theSHG would rtovide about Y 461 million ($88.3 million equivalent) to meet theremaining costs of the prolect. The proposed onlending tusms between theMinistry of Finance and SMG would be 20 years includi-- five years' grace at1.9 percent interest per year with 0.75 percent per year commitment fee onoutstanding balance. The foreign exchange risk would be borne by SMG.

Table 3.2: TENTATIVE FINANCING PLAN($ million)

X ofSource of financing Local Foreign Total total costs

IDA 0.0 60.0 60.0 40.5Shanghai Municipal

Government 78.8 9.4 88.3 59.5

Total 78.8 69.4 148.3 100.0

Project Management Arrangements

3.22 For the purposes of overall direction of ptoject implementation, SMGwould maintain its Leading Group for the City's 'isaor Engineering Projectscomposed of the SMG core and line agencies concerned with, inter alia, trans-portation planning and implementation, including those responsible for thefollowing:

(a) citywide spatial and economic planning,(b) citywide and district road and rail transport planning,(c) traffic management and enforcement,(d) public transport and transit planning and operations,Ce) freight transport planning and operations,(f) Shanghai Port and airport planning,(g) road construction and maintenance, and(h) sectoral finances,

which would advise the SMG on transportation policy and investment strategies,and key sectoral issues, as well as on project implementation policy andissues. The Leading Group would be chaired by the vice-mayor responsible forurban construction and transportation matters. The Leading Group would meetat least quarterly and its agenda, resolutions, and selected proceedings asappropriate, including progress reports on the implementation program, wouldbe included in a progress report to be submitted quarterly to the Bank. Dur-in& negotiations, assurances were obtained that the Leading Group and theimplementation arrangements as given in the following two paragraphs would beestablished by January 1, 1992, and maintained with the necessary staffin& andresvonsibilities satisfactory to the Association.

-28-

3.23 A Project Implementation Unit (PIU) would be established beforeJanuary 1, 1992, with a mandate from the Shanghai Municipal Government. ThePIU would be the Inner Ring Road Construction Company (IRRCC), a state-ounedcompany shortly to be incorporated. IRRCC consists of six departments (Plan-ning and Finance, Engineering and Technology, Land Acquisition and Resettle-ment, Engineering Management, Construction Supervision, and Materials andEquipment) and an administrative office, with 90-100 staff (including 30-40engineers and accountants), all reporting to a general manager assisted by adeputy general manager (see Chart 2). Technical matters would be supervisedby a chief engineer. The authorized charter of the company and its mandate asPIU would be provided to the Association before January 1, 1992. The com-pany's budget would be derived from the overhead allowance included in theproject costs and would be paid by the Shanghai Finance Bureau.

3.24 Three project teams (Sub-PIUs), one each for the Zhongshan InnerRing Road, the NMV Roads and Road Maintenance components, and the TrafficSafety and Management component would be established to carry out projectimplementation as illustrated in Annex 7.

Implementation of Physical Works

3.25 The Major Road component and related resettlement will be imple-mented by IRRCC. The Traffic Management and Safety Program will be imple-mented by the Traffic Management Division (TMD) of the Shanghai Public Secur-Aty Bureau, and the Shanghai Municipal Engineering Administration Department(SMEAD) in collaboration with the Shanghai City Planning and Design Institute(SCPDI) and the ShanghaL Urban Construction Design Tnstitute (SUCDI). Con-struction of the WV and NSC components will be administered by SMEAD throughits district organisations. The TSM program activities will be managed byTMD, which also will manage traffic signals, road markings, and installationof signm. Related civil works will be carried out by SMEAD. An understandingvas obtained at negotiations that arrangements for coordinating the TrafficManagement and Safety component satisfactora to the Association would beestablished not later than January 1, 1992. Details of the arrangements aregiven ln Annex 2.

3.26 The implementation unit for the Zhongshan Road will be staffed andrun by experienced engineers. These engineers will be assisted by foreignconsultants financed under the project. Foreign consultants experienced intraffic engineering will be recruited to assist with the Traffic Managementand Safety Program, as the Shanghai authorities have not attempted to plan orimplement a program of this scale before. Related specific implementationresponsibilities will be assigned as follows:

(a) The demolition and resettlement for the Zhongshan Road will beadministered by IRRCC. Because resettlement for the NHV road systemaffects three areas in the Central Business District (Jing An,Huangpu, and Hong Kou), each of the three area construction compa-nies was responsible for demolition and resettlement in its ownlocality completed during 1991.

(b) A Pollution Monitoring Unit would be established in the MunicipalEnvironmeital Protection Bureau, through the assignment of specificresponsibilities for this to existing staff.

-29-

(c) A Traffic Safety Monitoring Unit would be established under theTraffic Division of the Shanghai Public Security Bureau.

(d) A Development Impact Monitoring Unit would be established under theShanghai Planning Comnission. This Unit should be responsible forthe basic monitoring of the metropolitan areas physical development,building on to procedures initiated during the identification ofalternative development scenarios In the preparation of the project.

3.27 Project management consultants would be engaged by IRRCC to adviseand assist the P1U in establishing a microcomputer-based management Lnforma-tion system, development of procurement systems, and train PIU staff in proj-ect reporting and production of the quarterly Progress Report to be submittedto the Association.

Consulting Services

3.28 Consultants are required to help complete bid documents. providetechnical assistance to the implenenting agencies and public transport com-pany, carry out project related studies on urban transport, assist in environ-mental monitoring and management, and prepare a second phase project. Theseservices have been included in the project cost estimates. The proposed tech-nical assistance component for the project is presented in Annex 3. Duringnegotiations, assurances were obtained from SJG that it would engage consul-tants satisfactory to the Association to sugervise proiect construction arndconduct project-related studies.

Procurement

3.29 Satisfactory procedures for procurement have been agreed between theAssociation and Shangabi project officials. All international procurementactivities will be organized by the Shanghai International Tendering Company(SITC). Local procurement will be organised by the Shanghai Municipal Tender-Lig Company (SMTC). As far as possible, civil works components have beengrouped together to allow the maximum amount of work to be awarded throughinternational competitive bidding (ICO). The Association will review alldraft ICB bidding documents and all local competitive bidding (LCB) documentsfor civil works contracts exceeding $3.0 million, and any equipment contractscosting more than $200,000. The procurement categories and expected procure-ment methods are summarized in bible 3.3 below.

3.30 Civil Works. Nine civil works contracts will be avarded under theproject. Construction of the Zhongsban Road viaduct, the majorcomponent of the project, will be a complicated task requiring well-definedstage construction and close cooperation between many agencies in order tomaintain traffic on this vital artery during construction. The first activityrequired is the construction, concurrently with utility relocations, of trailroads along each side of the existing road. These will provide for mainte-nance of traffic and central working space for subsequent viaduct construc-tion. This work, estimated to cost $4.3 milllon ($4.2 million net of tax),will be done under two contracts usLng LCB procedures and forms of contractacceptable to the Association as the type of work and contract values (about$1.8 and 2.5 million) would not be attractive to foreign bidders. Two con-tracts for viaduct construction with a total value of $54.4 million

-30-

Table 3.3s PROCUREMENT ARRANGEMENTS($ million, including contingencies)

Procurement MethodCategory ICB LCB Other Total

Civil works 54.1 18.3 5.4 77.8(37.4) (12.6) (3.7) (53.8)

goods and equipment - 1.0 0.9 1.9(0.7) (0.9) (1.6)

Technical assistance 4.6 4.6(4.6) (4.6)

Resettlement - 56.2 - 56.2(0.0) (0.0)

Taxes and overheads 7.8 7.8(0.0) (0.0)

Total 54.1 75.5 18.7 148.3(37.4) (13.3) (60.0)

I of loan funds 62.3Z 22.32 15.4Z 100.01

Notest Figures in parentheses represent the arounts (including contingencies)expected to be disbursed from the credit proceeds.

($54.1 million net of tax) will be awarded to prequalified contractors usingICB procedures in accordance with the Association's guidelines. Qualifyingdomestic contractors will receive a 7.5 percent preference in bid evaluationon these contracts. Five other contracts, with an estimated total value of$14.3 million ($14.1 million net of tax) for surface improvements on ZhongshanRoad beyond the limits of the viaduct, construction of the service roads andfor erection of the Puji Road bridge under the KWV program will also beawarded using LCB procedures acceptable to the Association. Here also thenumber, size, timing, and scattered nature of the contracts would make themunattractive to foreign bidders. However, interested foreign bidders would beallowed to bid on any LCB contracts. The six-year construction program of NMVroads and traffic management road improvements, utility relocations, signs andmarking, and street lighting, all with a total estimated cost of $5,5 million($5.4 million net of tax), will be carried out mainly by force a count. Thisprocedure is considered most appropriate because these works are small and arewidely dispersed throughout the Central Business District area. Procurementpackaging is summarized in Annex 8.

3.31 Goods and Equiipment. Five packages of goods and equipment, total-ling $1.9 illion will be procured under the project. Of this amoint, about$1.3 million will be required for traffic signals and their controls and forcomputer equipment for monitoring various project components. Imported traf-fic signals vith a value of $0.3 oillion will be procured through prudentshopping from international suppliers whose products are compatible for the

-31-

extension of Shanghai's existing traffic control system. Computer equipmentestimated to cost $0.3 million and locally manufactured traffic signs esti-mated to cost $0.7 million will be procured through LCB. Road maintenanceequipment with a value of $0.2 million vill be procured through prudent shop-ping from international suppliers.

3.32 Technical Assistance. Consultants retained for the project will beselected according to the Association's 'Guidelines on the Use of Consultantsby World Bank Borrowers." Local counterpart staff will be assigned from thevarious government departments to work along with the foreign consultants.

3.33 Resettlement. All demolition required for civil works componentswill be carried out on a force account basis by the various districtsinvolved. Construction of facilities needed for resettlement of housing andenterprises will be procured using a combination of force account and LCB.None of the work would be financed directly from the credit proceeds. How-ever, LCD for resettlement is appropriate in view of the fact that(a) households are resettled in relatively small groups (in the range of 200to 400 households) among eight sites in the urban area; and (b) domestic con-struction enterprises have had considerable experience with resettlement;SMRQDC alone has eight subsidiary companies in Shanghai. These domestic unitshave a continuing responsibility for resettlement and new housing projects.It is Important to encourage a building-up of their skills and greater innova-tion in the designs being used.

Disbursement

3.34 The proposed IDA credit of $60.0 million equivalent will be dis-bursed over a period of seven years, as follows:

- $ million -

1. Civil works 51.1 70 percent of total expendi-tures for civil works

2. Goods andequipment 1.5 l00 percent of foreign expendi-

tures100 percent of expenditures (exfactory) and 75 percent oflocal expenditures for otheritems procured locally

3. Technicalassistance 4.6 100 percent of total expendi-

tures

4. Unallocated 2.8

Total 60.0

No proceeds from the credit will be disbursed for resettlement.

-32-

3.35 A special account will be set up in a bank acceptable to the Associ-ation to facilitate disbursements for project expenditures. The account willbe given an authorized allocation of $4.0 million, representing an averagefour months of disbursements, and it w1ll be managed by IRRCC. Replenishmentwill be made on a monthly basis, or whenever the account is drawn down to50 percent of its initial deposit value. The disbursement schedule (Annex 9)which is reasonably consistent with the China profile, has been derived frcthe Implementation schedule (Annex, 10). In the case of expenditures relatingto civil works carried out by force account and contracts for works, goods,md services, each valued at $200,000 and less, reimbursements would be mademn the basis of SOEs. Documentation supporting the SOEs should be retained bythe implementation agency and made available for review by Bank Group supervi-sion missions. Project completion is estimated to be June 30, 1997, and thecredit closLng date June 30, 1998. Retroactive financing of up toSKR 2.9 million ($3.9 milllon equivalent) would be applied for expendituresfor work relatLng to the traffic management component and for preliminaryworks for the Zhongshan Viaduct made after July 1, 1990.

Auditing, Reporting, and Monitoring

3.36 The Foreign Investment Audit Bureau of the State Audit Administra-tion (SAM) will be responsible for auditing the accounts of project expendi-tures. Actual audits will be conducted for SA by the Shanghai MunicipalityAudit Bureau (SMAB), a subordinate organization of SAM. These arrangementsare being used for the Shanghai Sewerage Project and are considered satisfac-tory for this project. At negotiations, assurances were obtained from SMGthat it will cause the project accounts and the Special Account, includingstatements of expenditures (SOEs), to be duly audlted by SMAB, and will submitthem to the Assoclation within six months of the end of each financial year.

3.37 The project implementation unit (para. 3.23) will submit quarterlyprogress reports on the project to the Association, using the project monitor-ing indlces presented in Annex 11. The project office also will prepare aProject Completion Report and submit it to the Association no later than sixmonths after the closing date for the credit.

-33-

IV, ECONOHIC, SOCIAL, AND ENVIROHEMNAL CONSIDERATIONS

Economic Justification

4.1 The rapid population growth and growth of output in the Municipalityof Shanghai have created a growing damand for transportation within the SMR.At the same time, the growth of Shanghai s port and the increasing counercebetween Shanghai and neighboring provinces ha" increased the need for linksto the port which bypass the city and for links between the city and neighbor-ing provinces. Steps now are being taken to develop several road projects inneighboring provinces which connect to Shanghai's borders. This will furtherincrease the demand for through traffic corridors.

4.2 Meanwhile, severe congestion has been develoting in Shanghai due tothe low percentage of land area allocated to roads and the bottlenecks createdby the city's natural barriers--the Buangpu River and Suzhou Creek. Theseproblems have been aggravated by a long period of neglected transport invest-ments. Today, all of the transport investment options open to Shanghal areexpensives river crossings, creek crossings, the demolition of very denseareas required to make major road improvements, and difficult subsurface con-ditions for underground transport. The proposed project represents one of theleast-cost options for relieving some of the congestion and improving theefficiency of the transport system.

4.3 The strategy of the physical components in this project is (a) tointensify traffic management techniques, including the use of exclusive bicy-cle ways and busvays, in order to make the best use of the existing streetnetworks (b) to remove a major bottleneck on the most intensively used inner-city corridor; and (c) to increase capacity on the main corridor from the areasouthwest to the area northeast of the Central Business District. The inner-ring road links the major Shanghai industrial areas and the port to neighbor-ing provinces, and also serves intracity traffic. The strategy for the tech-nical assistance components is to build upon the intensive work undertakenduring the preparation phase of this project and to lay the groundwork formore comprehensive planning of transport and related infrastructure for areadevelopment.

Traffic with and without the Prolect

4.4 Traffic on the existing roads is already a major impediment to effi-cient movement within the city. Without the project's investments in bicycleways and traffic management, the extreme congestion of peak period inner-citytraffic, caused by the conflict of buses and bicycles, could not be relieved.The recent increase in bicycle traffic, a response to the growing inadequacyof bus service, also would continue. Every increase in bicycle traffic mixedwith other traffic would further slow peak period movements.

4.5 Without the project's investments in Zhongshan Road, the onlythrough road from southeast to northwest and the key link to traffic fromother provinces would be fully saturated during the long morning and eveningpeak periods early in the 1990s. A significant portion of Zhongshan Roadtraffic is already diverted (south) to the system of inadequate streets androads along the northern edges of the Central Business District (north), to

-34-

narrow and indirect roads through the major industrial areas around Shanghai.On both indirect routes the conflict with local traffic is severe, and thisproblem would get worse with normal growth in demand and with the new routesbeing completed to the border of the province from adjacent provinces.

4.6 The project partially alleviates existing traffic problems ratherthan offering comprehensive long-term solutions. Nevertheless, each of theelements of the project fits within any rational transport developmenL plan.The traffic management component, with the creation of bicycle vays and bus-ways, will provide immediate and significant relief to peak period congestion,but it is only the first step in a system that must eventually provide a moreextensive bicycle network, including creek crossings, and the development ofdedicated busways and mass transit systems. Investment in some higher-capa-city roads in the city also is needed. The Zhongshan Road investments willrelieve present cor.gestion and will allow currently diverted traffic to use amore direct route. In the long run, however, traffic from the adjacent prov-inces to the industrial areas and the port cannot be accommodated on ZhongshanRoad, even with the project's improvements in capacity. A second ring roadwill be urgently required by the end of the century. By this time, ZhongshanRoad will be fully utilized as a ring road for the central buainess district,and as a link with major suburbs that are developing to the west.

Economic Rates of Return

4.7 The economic return for physical investments in transportation wascalculated using 1990 prices in renminbi and adjusted to reflect economicshadow values. According to the regulations governing infrastructure develop-ment for the Municipality of Shanghai, there is an associated cost for thedevelopment of housing, commercial, and industrial space and related infra-structure to "replace the buildings that are destroyed to clear the rights ofway for these investments. Because the standards of demolished housing arelower than community standards, about four times as much floor space is beingconstructed as was destroyed. In order to isolate transport investment forpurposes of economic evaluation, one quarter of the cost of resettlement wasallocated to the road investment (i.e., the cost of building and infrastruc-ture for the replacement proper). This is consistent with the Bank Grcup'spractice in economic analysis, which focuses on the benefits and costs attrib-utable specifically to a project.

4.8 A separate calculation of benefits and costs was done for ZhongshanRoad, a relatively free-standing investment. The imprcvements in the innercity--traffic management, bicycle way development, buaway development--areinterdependent, and thus they can only be evaluated as a single investment.

4.9 Project benefits were estimated using present and projected vehicleoperating costs and time costs with and without the project. Details of thecalculations of user cost savings are shown in Annex 12. For Zhongshan Road,project benefits were based on current traffic and projected normal trafficgrowth. No generated traffic was assumed, but the return of traffic, which isnow diverted to other roads in the network in the most congested part of theZhongshan Road corridor, is incorporated. For the inner-city investments,first-year benefits were calculated, and the rate of return was estimated asif these benefits would not increase with traffic growth. The reason for thisis primarily practical; the projected network traffic assignment for the cen-

-35-

tral business district and contiguous area is a complex and time-consumingcalculation with the available model. Thus, a single year's projections, withand without the project, were used in the calculation. For both the ZhongshanRoad and the inner-city investments, savings in tine costs were estimated by aprocedure which was designed to value only work-related trips. This has theeffect of counting only one out of three hours saved in the benefits of theproject. Each of the procedures discussed above tends to impart a conserva-tive bias in the estimate of project benefits.

4.10 As shown in Annex 12, the calculated economic rates of return (ERRs)are 18.1 percent for the Zhongshan Road investment and 32.1 percent for theinner-city investment. There is little risk that the benefits will not mate-rialize, as they are based on a conservative estimate of growth in theZhongshan Road case and, in effect, on the relief of present congestion in thecase of inner-city traffic. The risk of lower-than-estimated ERR derivesmainly from the posslbillty of real cost overruns and the possibility of pro-tracted implementation periods, which would have the effect of delaying bene-fits. A delay in beginning the project would tend to raise the ERR in thisproject, as in all projects with growing demand. For the traffic managementinvestments, detailed designs and costing remain to be done throughout theproject implementation period, so some risk of cost overrun is present. Ananalysis of the sensitivity of the ERR to project cost estimates is includedin Annex 12. This analysis shows that a 15-percent cost overrun on ZhongshanRoad, and a 30-percent cost overrun on the inner-city investments would stillproduce rates of return well in excess of the cutoff rate of 10 percent. Itseems likely that the main physical components will take longer than planned.However, similar projects have been implemented by the municipality in lessthan two years, as compared with the four years that have been allowed in theERR calculation between the start of implementation and the beginning of proj-ect benefits. Nevertheless, a sensitivity to delayed benefits has been calcu-lated. Assuming a two-year delay in all benefits (i.e., a 50 percent imple-mentation period overrun), the ERR are 16.9 percent and 25.2 percent forZhongshan Road and the inner-city investments, respectively.

Environmental Impact

4.11 The Project is expected to have a positive environmental impact dueto net reductions in engine emissions (associated with higher vehicle speeds),reduced traffic accidents, and improved housing and sanitation conditions forfamilies relocated under the Project. These issues are discussed in Armex 5,and a further report on resettlement is in the project files.

Project Risks

4.12 Delas in Construction of the Zhongshan Road Viaduct. The risk ofdelays in constructing the viaduct are moderate. Four years have been allowedfor construction, rather than the two suggested initially by the SMG. Theeffects of a two-year delay in the beginning of benefits, beyond the four-yearconstruction period provided for, would reduce the ERR by only 1 percent (fromapproximately 18 percent to approximately 17 percent).

4.13 Delavs in Demolition and Resettlement. Delays in demolition andresettlement often are a major risk in projects of this kind, particularlyvhere land acquisition is iAvolved. However, in this case the risk is low.The land needed for resettlement already is available to the agencies con-cerned and much of the Zhongshan Road demolition is already completed. Thehousing to be provided, together with cash compensation, is a strong incentivefor households to move when requested. SMG has a great deal of experiencewith demolition and resettlement and could include this project's resettlementas a small part of its already ongoing resettlement program.

4.14 CGongestion of the New Viaduct. The diversion of traffic toZhongshan Road Viaduct could be in excess of expectations and could result insevere congestion before other traffic routes are available. This congestionshould be minimized by proceeding with the planning and implementation oflonger-range improvements and additions to the transport system, specificallythe Second Ring Road as soon as possible as part of the second phase of theprogram.

-37,

V. AGREEETS REACHED AND RECOIEKNDATION

5.1 The following agreements were reached with the Borrower during nego-tiationss

(a) Shanghai shall furnish to the Association, comencing June 30, 1992,details of the municipality's medium-term transportation investmentplan and subsequent annual investment plans, for the Association'sreview and comments until completion of the project (para. 2.44)S

(b) Shaunhai shall carry out the resettlement of the people affected bythe project, in accordance with the plan agreed with the Association(para. 3.13);

(c) the proceeds of the development credit would be made available toShanghai under arrangements satisfactory to the Association, andShanghai would provide about Y 461 million ($88.3 million equiva-lent) to meet the remaining costs of the Project (para. 3.21);

(d) Shang!Iai shall establish by January 1, 1992, and maintain the Proj-ect Implementation Unit (PIU) with the necessary staffing andresponsibilities satisfactory to the Association (para. 3.22);

(e) Shanghai shall furnish the Association by January 1, 1992, arrange-ments for coordinating, planning, and implementing the TrafficSafety and Management Program (para. 3.25);

(f) Shanghal shall engage consultants satisfactory to the Association tosupervise project construction and conduct project-related studies(para. 3.28); and

(g) Shanghai shall submit audit reports on the project accounts includ-ing the special account and statements of expenditures (SONs) whichhave been prepared by SMAB within six months of the end of eachfinancial year (para. 3.36).

5.2 Understandings were reached on the following and recorded In theMinutes of the Negotiationst

(a) the formats of the presentation of the municipality's medium-termtransportation investment plan (para. 2.44);

(b) the various steps agreed to be taken and the schedule for resettle-ment monitoring and reporting to the Association (para. 3.13); and

(c) Shanghai making available the necessary local counterpart fundsneeded to finance the project (para. 3.21);

(d) arrangements for coordinating and implementing the Traffic Manage-ment and Safety Program, (para. 3.25).

5.3 On the basis of these agreements and understandings, the projectwould be suitable for an IDA Credit of SDR 44.4 million (860.0 million equiva-lent) to the People's Republic of China. The credLt will be on standard IDAterms, with 35 years' maturity.

-38- ANNZX 1Page 1

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

CHINA

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT

Urban Transport Constraints to Growth in Shanghai

Present Condition of Urban Transport

1. The urban transport system in Shanghai is inadequate for a city ofits size and importance. These inadequacies will become more pronounced withShanghai's growth as a population and production center and as a port of entryand exit for overland traffic to its hinterland. Present problems include anacute shortage of road space, vehicular congestion on important road freightroutes, mixed traffic on most streets and roads of the network (leading to lowaverage speed as bicycles impede motor traffic), an aging and underpoweredtruck fleet, a ferry fleet in need of more boats, and an overcrowded bus fleetrequiring more vehicles. Traffic engineering has taken only preliminary stepsin maximizing flow on the road network. There are few routes reserved forbicycles, no priority lanes for buses, and few streets and roads designatedexclusively for motor vehicles.

2. In the 12 urban districts which make up Shanghai City, the roadspace occupies only about 5 percent of the land surface--the lowest concentra-tion of roads in any major city in the world. Cities in developing countriestypically devote 15 percent or more of the land surface to rords, and devel-oped countries often devote from 20 I!;rcent to 25 percent for this purpose incity centers. The average road width in Shangnai City is only 15 meters, andfew roads inside the inner-ring road are as wide as 24 meters. The HuangpuRiver splits Shanghai into two parts, with about 25 percent of the city'spopulation residing on the eastern side. Until 1989, only one tunnel linkedthe two sides of Shanghai proper, otherwise dependent on an extensive ferrysystem but with limited vehicular capacity. The newly completed Yanan Tunnelwill help reduce delays in vehicular river crossings. The nearest bridge tothe city center is 20 km upstream. Thus, by any standard, Shanghai has verylimited transport infrastructure.

3. Congestion is common throughout the day on the urban road network.On some critical links, traffic reaches saturation levels during rush hours,so that added vehicles only slow traffic, with no increase in throughput. TheDapu Lu Tunnel, designed to carry 5,700 vehicles a day, now carries about9,000 per day, with long lines and maJor delays at peak periods. The innerring road (Zhongshan) is heavily congested during a long morning peak period,with traffic at several major intersections approaching saturation. The cen-tral business district is also heavily congested, which slows bus traffic andimpedes bicycles and pedestrians. Furthermore, roads in the central businessdistrict can accommodate only a few trucks operating under special licenseduring an average day. (Other truck traffic is diverted to Zhongshan Roadwith the result that trucks comprise 80 percent of its traffic.) Businesseswhich depend on truck traffic cannot schedule pick-up and delivery during the

-39- ANNEX 1Page 2

day in most cases, which results in efficiency losses for commercial and manu-facturing firms. Congestion, rather than the shortage of vehicles, is themajor obstacle to effecting needed increases in bus passenger transportationuntil traffic engineering and management has improved the priority of bustransit. Currently, buses on the main city routes are slowed to the speed ofa bicycle during most of the day, and during rush hours, buses and bicyclesalone nearly saturate urban road space. Only 4 percent of the nonwalkingtrips in Shanghai are taken using forms of transport other than bicycles andbuses. Thus, the relief from congestion available for most cities in thedeveloping world, namely the diversion of motor vehicle traffic to buses, isnot imuediately available to Shanghai. The diversion of bicycle traffic toits own network, and the shift of cyclists to buses, which use road space muchmore efficiently, are the main possibilities for relieving congestion inShanghai.

4. Public transport in Shanghai is a major public enterprise. Busesaccount for 56 percent of the nonwalking trips in Shanghai City, and 42 per-cent of such trips in the municipality as a whole. This translates to about7 million trips per day in the city and 9 million trips in thie whole munici-pality. On the inner ring road, peak period bus trips approach 30,000 perhour, on some other major thoroughfares, they are nearly 20,000. On most citystreets, however, throughput of bus passengers is relatively low and speedsare slow--less then 12 miles per hour, in spite of wide spacing between stops.(This spacing averages 700 meters and serves to eliminate demand for shorttrips.) Generally, bus transportation is unsatisfactory, in that it inducespassengers to shift to bicycles, resulting in private improvement for the newcyclists but greater inefficiency for the system as a whole, as these cyclistsfurther obstruct the network. Buses are extremely crowded; passenger loads of9 persons per square meter of bus floor space considered normal, and 12 per-sons per square meter not uncommon dutring peak periods. (At 12 persons persquare meter, standing passengers cad;uot be further compressed.) Long linesand long delays are also normal during peak periods.

5. Ferry services are the dominant form of transport linking the twoparts of Shanghai across the Huangpu River. They are the only services avail-able for pedestrians and bicyclists, and they also handle heavy vehicle traf-fic. About 1 million persons per day use the ferry service, which operates 20lines and 65 ferries for passengers, and 5 lines with 20 ferries for vehicles.Congestion is not a major passenger service problem, but weather conditionssometimes interrupt service. Long vehicle delays are common on some of thevehicle ferry lines.

The Medium-Term Transport Investment Plan and its Rationale

6. Shanghai's investment in transportation infrastructure was limitedduring the municipality's period of slow growth, and only now is it approach-ing reasonable levels. Investments in transportation infrastructure increasedfrom Y 75 million in 1983 to about Y 425 million, which is equivalent to about6 percent of municipal tax receipts after deducting transfers to the centralgovernment. During the closing years of the current plan peric-, which endedat the close of 1990, the bulk of the transport infrastructure investmentprogram has been allocated to nine ongoing projects listed in Table 1. Thefinal cost of these investments will be approximately Y 4.6 billion, of which

-40- ANNEX 1Page 3

Table 1i EXISTING PROCRAM OF ONGOING AND PROPOSEDMAJOR TRANSPORT INYESTMENTS

(Y million, 1991 prices)

1990 1991 1992-99

On2oin ProiectesZhongshan Rlng Road 113 229 333Wusong Dam Bridge 3 54 165Nanpu Bridge - 200 670Xujia Huei Cross Road 10 15 0Chao Qi Road Link 20 20 0Nonmotor Vehicle Routes 17 12 19Traffic Management 1 4 12Metro Line 1 400 400 1,189

Subtotal 564 934 2,3B8

Hiahway Links to InteriorsHangzhou Highway 270aNanjing Highway 616

Jiangeu Road 162quingpu-Ping Wan Road 594Outer Ring Road 648

Subtotal 2,291

Inner City Improvements:North South Corridor 1,081Chengdu Expressway 1,081Wusong Road Widening 162Tibet-Hetlan Road 162Chengdu Road Widening (from Yanan) 432

Subtotal 2.917

Port, River Crossings, and Pudongs

Pudong Outer Ring Road 324Long We Road (near new port) 216Yangao Road, Pudong 324Ninguo River Crossing 972Nenjiang Tunnel 864

Subtotal 2,701

Metro Line No. 2 1.189

Total 1992-99 11,486

-41- ANNEX 1Page 4

about Y 1.5 billion is bein$ spent during the period 1990191; this representsan average of about Y 750 million per year.

7. Beyond 1991, in addition to completing the project carryover fromthis plan period (about Y 2.4 billion will be carried over), planners haveidentified several major investments in transportation infrastructure for therest of the decade which are at various stages of preparation (see Table )).These investments have -ot yet been officially approved, nor has financingbeen arranged, so at this stage the cost estimates are very approximate. Thetotal cost of carryover and proposed new investments during the 1991-99 periodcomes to Y 11.5 billion in 1991 prices or about Y 1,440 per year. Shanghaiplanners assume an upper limit of about Y 800 million per year available fortransport investments (excluding possible special financing for Metro), andthey note that some prioritization will be necessary.

8. The discussion above omits work of major importance in traffic man-agement, the creation of bicycle ways and bus priority routes, and safetyenhancement, in addition to work started during the current plan period.These activities and a long list of minor investments, such as for minor engi-neering works and the building of minor link roads, could add up to Y 20-40 million per year. Without these minor investments, the present networkcannot be used optimally, and major new investments will not serve as substi-tutes.

9. Bus and ferry investments are also required to make up a backlog ofservice requirements and to allow for growth. At present, bus and ferry oper-ations are under review, and proposals for improving this efficiency andfinancial management soon should be forthcoming. No major impediments toincreasing ferry services appear to exist; improvements are largely a matterof updating charges, increasing operatlonal efficiency, and investing inincreased capacity. The bus company can also improve efficiency and financialperformance. For this, more rolling stock is needed to augment its capacitygreatly. Improving bus operations also will require that, at least on a fewmajor routes, the right of way be cleared of slow-moving NMV traffic, andbuses be given priority of movement or exclusive lanes. For the moment thisis Impossible, since bicycles make use of all streets and have no alternativeroutes for commuting. However, the widespread creation of NMV routes, sched-uled to begin in 1990, will make possible designated bus lanes and majorimprovements on other motor-vehicle-only roads. With sufficient investment inbuses, passengers that are now crowded out, using bicycles as a second bestalternative, could then shift to buses, further adding to effective roadspace. For these improvements to proceed, it will require a large investmentin new and replacement rolling stock. As a rough estimate, bus and ferryinvestments could come to Y 200 million per year, including depots, rollingstock, and repair facilities. About three fourths of this amount will beneeded for replacement of vehicles. The role of bicycles in Shanghai urbantransport strategy is discussed in the attachment to this annex.

10. Shanghai does not have a comprehensive strategy for meeting itsurban transportation requirements, nor does it have a clear rationale forplanning transportation investments. Furthermore, even the extensive list ofinvestments above does not allow for growth in the urbanized area of Shanghai.Yet another set of investments is needed for this purposes preliminary land

ANNEX 1-42- Page 5

use plans call for trunk roads and imply secondary roads not included in thetransport investment list. There is a serious risk that heavy investment willleave comparatively inexpensive but critical needs unattended.

Affordability Issues in Transport Development

11. Unlike most major cities in the developing world, Shanghai must payits own way in the development of infrastructure will little assistance to beexpected from the national government. For planning purposes, therefore, themunicipality could be compared to a small country. Typical levels of trans-port investment in developing countries are close to 5 percent of GDP. SinceShanghai is a major port and has responsibility for providing infrastructurefor transit to the interior, a total transport investment at least equal totypical developing countries is reasonable and should be affordable consider-ing Shanghai's relatively high per capita income. Assuming that total trans-port investmeuit In Shanghai was close to this average, and allowing 2 percentof gross regional product (GRP) for necessary investments in railways, ports,waterways, and airports in the province, about 3 percent of GRP would beavailable for investmerts in roads and rapid rail services in Shanghai. Thiswould imply a budget ftr road and rapid rail services of roughly Y 1.4 billionper year.

12. Although ,gh compared with historical levels, this investment isstill below the expenditure required to finance the needs evidenced byShanghai's present transport situation, which is near crisis, and its economicgrowth prospects, assuming these are not impeded by infrastructure shortage.As discussed above, investments beyond 1991 have not been costed or scheduled,and many obvious needs have been left out. To spell out these investmentneeds will require additional study and planning, including improved growthscenarios and intensive work with thp traffic assignment model. In the mean-time, a rough scheduling of transport investment needs has been attempted inorder to provide a framework for planning. This schedule is presented belowafter a discussion of fiscal constraints and urban transport.

Fiscal Limits to Transportation Investment

13. User fees are a significant source of income and have potential tofinance a growing proportion of investment needs. At present, both the busand ferry companies make small losses on operations, on annual sales of ser-vices of about Y 325 million by the bus company and Y 30 million by the ferrycompany. To make up their deficlt and cover their own investment costs asestimated above, bus and ferry fees voulJ have to increase by about 75 per-cent. This would still leave bas fares among the lowest in the world. Forthe ferry company, the increase in fees would have to be borne mainly bypedestrians and cyclists, who are now heavily cross-subsidized by ferry vehi-cle traffic and pay very low rates. Other direct user fees are tolls on tun-nels and bridges, which amounted to Y 24 million and Y 8 million, respec-tively, in 1987. With the Yanan Tunnel nearly completed and three new cross-ings planned before the turn of the century, tolls could become a major reve-nue source, equal perhaps to 5 percent of total annual transport investment.Shanghai also levies taxes on vehicles and transport that could be consideredas user fees for transport infrastructure. These are (a) the Highway Main-tenance Fee, a tax on vehicle and boat use, which yielded Y 413 million in

-43- ANNEX 1Page 6

1987; (h) the bicycle tax, which yields about Y 20 million per year; and (c)other vehicle taxes (vehicle and boat utilization tax) which yielded Y 388million. In total, user fees other than bus and ferry fares yield about Y 900million per year, nearly two thirds of the investment suggested by the 3-per-cent-of-GRP rule of thumb. By international standards, road transport usersin Shanghai pay a high percentage of transport costs.

14. A variety of other taxes unrelated to transport are partly allocatedto transport investment, and user fees do not accrue entirely to the transportbudget. This is only a matter of rules for revenue sharing; in terms of fis-cal affordability, the bottom line appears to be that in addition to thedirect and indirect user fees and the self-financing of bus and ferry invest-ment, additional resources of a...out Y 500 million per year would be requiredto meet the Y 1.4 billion investment target. One possible source would be anincrease in the vehicle tax rates, which are modest for motorcycles, trucks,and buses (Y 60 per year). Special license fees for use of the Central Busi-ness District (CBD) (trucks are already licensed without fee for daytime use,and additional restrictions may become necessary) also could yield significantrevenue. Another major and untapped source would be a municipal vehicle fueltax, the backbone of the user charging system in many countries.

15. On balance, it appears that Shanghai has no insurmountable fiscalimpediment to increasing its road and rapid transit investment to something inthe neighborhood of 3 percent of gross regional product.

Determination of Urban Transport Priorities

16. The first priority must be to use the existing infrastructure asefficiently as possible. Shanghai has developed a traffic assignment model,that, when simplified and enhanced, could be a valuable tool in identifyingand evaluating the many small investments that are needed to get greater ser-vice from the present system. Examples of these small investments are linkroads, NMV systems, bus priority routes, and minor engineering works.

17. Shanghai is now undertaking a major investment in a subway line,which will serve a route of 17 km. Other lines are being planned. The costof the present line is approximately $50 million per km. To put this sum inperspective, the 17-km line comprises about one-half of Shanghai's entiretransport investment of Shanghai in the previous five-year plan. If itachieves world class utilization rates (comparable to the most heavily usedlines of the Paris or Mexico City subways), the line will transport 60,000persons per hour during peak periods. Considering Shanghai's density, thismay occur. However, it is doubtful that such an expensive mode can be thecore to the urban transport system for passengers. Therefore, less costlyalternatives should be evaluated carefully.

18. Surface road systems (light rail), using single traffic lanes andstopping for traffic lights, have achieved volumes of up to 20,000 persons perhour, at costs of less than 10 percent of the cost of the Shanghai metro.Dedicated bus lanes can also achieve very high volumes. Planning for allhigh-density corridor movement systems, including metro, should start immedi-ately, using the traffic assignment model among other tools, so that an alter-native is available before the second Metro line is due to start construction.

-44- ANNEX 1Page 7

Halting metro planning without some high-volume alternative is unreasonable,as is opting for such an expensive system as metro without studying all possi-ble alternatives.

19. Shanghai must improve its plan for the expansion of population andemployment, with realistic and affordable transport infrastructure to supportthis growth. At present, there is an insufficient basis for estimating futurepopulation growth. Statistical work has concentrated on the registered (i.e.,official and permanent) populationt the mobile population, which makes up alarge and growing share of the city's actual residents, has been studied onlyperiodically on an ad hoc basis. Thus, reasonable guesses about the growth ofthe mobile population can vary widely; this introduces a wide range into theprojections of total population. A plausible method is required to norrowthis range, based on firmer analysis of the trends in mobile population.(Except for terminology, this is the familiar problem of estimating migrationinto a rapidly growing urban labor market.)

20. With improved population projections, Shanghai will be in a positionto improve plans for the expansion of its urbanized areas. Shanghai's offi-cial "Comprehensive Development Plan' is already out of date due to populationg.-owth and location decisions that are inconsistent with its basicassumptions. The restructuring of industry and emergence of a housing marketwill be increasingly driven by market forces leading to locational choicesdiffering from planned land use. A new framework, the draft Development Sce-nario (DS), is still heavily influenced by normative considerations of landuse, but it takes a more realistic view of actual population growth and loca-tion developments. Like the Comprehensive Plan, however, the DS incorporatesplans for major infrastructure links which are not costed out, and cost con-siderations were not dominant in the conception of the use of space and theresulting requirement for trunk infr'tqtructure links. Even on casual inspec-tion, the bulk of investments implied by the DS are clearly unaffordable.New, empirically-based expansion plans are needed, and these must be based ona realistic estimate of affordability. It would be useful to determine howmuch of the required expansion area over the next decade could be served bythe trunk roads that are currently planned primarily as links to the interior,as these links are required under any circumstances.

21. In addition to the roads necessary for its own expansion. Shanghairequires upgraded and expanded links to Its economic hinterland. Shanghai andZhejiang, the province to the south, are increasingly integrated economically,and industrial specialization will further increase commerce between the twoprovinces. Both road and water links south from Shanghai are fully used. Twomajor projects in the plans for post-1992--The Shanghai-Hangzhou Highway andthe Shanghai-Quingpu-Pung Wang Highway--will add needed capacity on this cor-ridor. The planned Jiangsu Road investment and the Nanjing Highway invest-ment, major elements in the post-1991 investment list, are also required toserve Shanghail's dense economic hinterland and handle traffic to and from itsport. Work on an outer ring road, particularly to the west and north of thecity, is also Important, partly as a defensive measure. At present. the natu-ral route of most of the traffic from Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces includestravel on Zhongshan Road, vhich is already highly congested and which alsoserves a beltway fuiction for the clty proper. An outer ring road would alsoserve the present industrial and Northern Railway Terminus area, which is

-45-Page 8

Table 2: MODIFIED PROGRAM OF ANNUAL INVESTMENTS FOR URBAN TRANSPORT

8-yearY million/vear total

1992-95 1996-99 1992-99

Ongoing Projects /a 597 2,388

New investments, by functions

Optimum use of existing infrastructures- NMV routes, minor links, traffic management 20 40 240- Bus and ferry investments 200 800

Metro 2 or alternative la 100 200 1,200

Area expansion and links to hinterlands- Major highway links to interior la 286 280 2,291- Port, Puttlng, and river crossings la 338 338 2,701- Other primary and secondary roads orarea expansion 100 200 1,200

Major road redevelopment in inner city la 100 629 2,917

Total 1,144 1,693 11,349

La See Table 1 for listing of projects.

currently heavily congested with traffic originating in the area and transit-ing to the port. Shanghai cannot afford to accommodate this traffic viaZhongshan Road, since it will be needed to serve the traffic needs of the cityproper.

22. Major traffic volume can be expected between the new industrial-andresidential areas of the city and the central business district. This wasrecognized in the present plan which included both the Na Matu Bridge and aNinguo River Grossing (commenced in 1991), partly to cater to the needs forintegration between the city center and the east bank. Similarly, westwardexpansion, proceeding faster than planned, will require added capacity onstreets and roads into the city, and its own economic development willincrease the commercial and industrial traffic load in the inner city.

23. Plans must be made to handle this new traffic within the city, par-ticularly arising from the river crossings, which will dump a concentratedstream of traffic onto the west bank of the Huangpu River, where there is nomajor highway to receive it. The planned North-South Corridor development isneeded on about the same schedule that Na Matu and Ninguo Bridge projects arecompleted. Otherwise traffic from the east bank will begin to compete with

-46- ANNE IPage 9

present downtown traffic, even if its destination is not the city center.Other major traffic corridor improvements will also be needed, although stud-ies do not yet support particular choices. Several are included in the post-1991 investment list.

Quantification of Transeort Investment Priorities

24. Table 2 makes no pretense at accuracy. Its purpose is to aid in thediscussion of affordability of high priority transport investments after thecurrent plan period, i.e., commencing In 1992. In addition to the obvioussources (the current plan and the post-1991 investment list), allowances havebeen included for high-priority additional investments in traffic management,nonmotor vehicle routes, minor road links, bus and ferry fleets, and for pri-mary and secondary roads for area expansion.

25. Annual investment estimates after 1991, at about Y 1.2 billion,matches the affordability rule of thumb discussed above (3 percent of GRP).It is not at all obvious where the investments (summarized in Table 1) shouldbe cut, if reductions will be necessary. Substitution of the Metro Line 2investment with cheaper and more flexible light rail (or slow development ofMetro) is already implied by a total Metro 2 budget of only Y 1.1 billioncompared to Y 2.5 billion for Metro 1. Area expansion investments are lessthan half those implied by the DS, and already assume that most links to thehinterland can be used as access to new areas. Scaling down or postponingsome major inner city redevelopments, and slowing the Pudong development seemto be the main possibilities for keeping investment plans roughly in line witha 3-percent-of-GRP limit in the next few years. We can conclude, however,that with careful planning and programming, the priority transport needs ofShanghai are affordable, from the point of view of Shanghai's income and con-sidering the rest of the decade as a whole. The fiscal problems involved intrying to realize investments of Y 1:4 billion per year have been discussedabove and do not appear to be insurmountable at present levels of GRP. Assum-ing normal growth, the same arguments can be extended t( the projectedY 1.7 billion investment level later in the decade.

Next Steps

26. The Shanghai transport infrastructure problem is partly transitory,making up for decades of comparative neglect of needed investments. Further-more, the tax base of the municipality could be expected to grow quiterapidly, and major improvements could be made in revenue yield, f-r example,by taxing property which is greatly undertaxed by international standards.Improved infrastructure will further enhance the base of the property tax.For all these reasons, Shanghai would appear to be justified in borrowing asignificant proportion of its transport investment needs.

27. A finer definition of urban transport investment priorities willrequire, as stressed above, sophisticated use of traffic models, improved areaexpansion plans, and investigation of transport technology alternatives suchas bus lanes, NMV routes, light rail systems, and combined transport develop-ment and land development or redevelopment. Shanghai should seek to tapinternational experience in these fields as well as in land development and

-47- -Page 10

redevelopment, and ccst recovery systems both for trunk infrastructure andsecondary and tertiary route development.

28. In considering possibilities for future Bank involvement, it may beuseful to think of the present project as the first phase of a continuingprogram along the same lines. In the project or in studies related to it,Shanghai has begun to expand its nonconstruction measures to improve transport(traffic engineering, a pilot program for traffic safety, construction of NMVlanes). The project has also attempted to make practical use of the trafficassignment model, which is now being improved. In addition to evaluatingprevious investment choices, eventually the model will be useful in settingnew priorities. Improvements in the planning for the city's area expansion,begun in a project-related study on Development Scenarios, should be followedup with further pragmatic, least cost development objectives. Technicalassistance provided during this project preparation has made a major start inanalyzing management improvement and the investment needs of public transport;this needs to be sustained in the coming years. Finally, a series of techni-cal assistance studies financed by the project itself will lead directly toidentification of priority investments.

-48- ANNEX 1AttachmentPage I

CHINA

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT

Bicycle Transportation in Shapghai

Bicycle Popularity

1. Within the city of Shanghai and its 10 adjacent counties, more than12 million people in 1986 made 21 million daily trips for working, shopping,and for other purposes. Of these trips, 33 percent are estimated to have beenmade by bicycle compared with 38 percent by walking, 26 percent by bus, and amere 3 percent by other vehicular modes. The bicycles and their riders trav-eled some 18 million km, competing for scarce road space with buses, trucks,pedestrians, and hawkers in Shanghai's narrow and congested streets. Thebicycle fleet in Shanghai is the largest in the world, at 6.8 million, and isgrowing at 17 percent annually. Bicycle ownership in Shanghai is nowapproaching 1.9 per family on average. A recent sample survey It of owner-ship by occupation and residency revealed the following distribution:

Percentage of personsNo. of persons interviewed owning a

Occupation interviewed bicycle

Worker 122,278 38.6Student 23,378 9.7University student 5,952 18.3Unemployed 47,007 S.7Farmer 12,764 39.1Suburban dweller 10,273 75.0

2. Polloving liberation in 1949, China increasingly encouraged the useof bicycles as the preferred means of transport for urban travellers. Thispolicy was consistent with wages and incomes policies and strict limitationson vehicle ownership, as well as residential and employment location strate-gies which housed workers within reasonable cycling distance (about 5 km) oftheir respective workplaces. Bicycle production blossomed from just threefactories producing 14,000 bikes per year in 1949 to 115 factories i2 1983

1; Powills, H. A., J. R. Hamburg, J. H. Vance. "Transportation Planning forBicycles in Shanghai.- Paper prepared for 70th Annual Meeting of Trans-portation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 1991.

_49_ AiNNWX .AttachmentPage 2

vith a combined annual production of some 30 million.2I Passenger bicycleeare relatively inexpensive in China, equivalent to about one month's salaryfor a worker. Designs are generally sturdy and durable, vith heavy componentsand simple gearing arrangements, based on British designs prevalent during the1930s. As part of their employment benefit package, enterprises providetransportation subsidies to their employees, which include maintenance allow-ances as well as vouchers permitting purchase of good-quality bicycles at agenerous discount. The economic impacts of bicycle usage extend to a thrivingservice sector for tire repairs and maintenance.

3. The flat topography characteristic of many Chinese cities, includingShanghai, facilitates more than just passenger transport by bicycle. Freightmovements in the form of local deliveries are frequently made by flat-bedtricycle; some 300,000 such vehicles ply the streets daily. This extensiveuse of nonmotor vehicle modes coupled with tax disincentives has enabled thegovernment to limit the number of private motor vehicles. Shanghai currentlyrestricts the number of automobiles in private ownership to less than 1,000.Motorcycles are similarly controlled.31

Pros...

4. The advantages of a bicycle-based transportation system are mani-fold. Mobility is high, time and cash cost of travel ls low for users, andenvironmental and health impacts are generally positive. A significant indus-try has grown to supply and serve users and contributes to exports. In caseswhere adequate separation of mixed traffic occurs, serious accidents are low.For example, in China's third largest urban center, Tianjin, where bicycle useis even more intensive and separation of motor and nonmotor vehicles along thecity's generally wide streets is comm nplace, the accident rate is about 80percent lower than in comparable developLng country cities. The rate inShanghai's congested narrow streets more closely resembles the norm (about 100fatal accidents per million population), which is also due in part to theabsence of uimediate first aid to victims.

21 Recent investments Include IFC investment No. 1020 in the Shenzen ChinaBicycles Co. Ltd (1987). The output of this factory and many others inChina is partly directed to export. Chinese-made bicycles are reportedlypopular in many developing countries, notably in India and severalAfrican countries. Several manufacturers (including joint ventures withforeign investors) are attempting to stimulate further demand and improvemarket shares with improved designs and marketing methods.

3/ The Shanghai registered motor vehicle fleet totaled about 200,000 in1988; the majority of which were trucks (53 percent). Cars and motorcy-cles owned mainly by various work units totalled about 20 percent and17 percent, respectively. Buses (including a public transport fleet ofabout 5,500) constitute about 10 percent of the fleet.

-50- ANNEX 1AttachmentPage 3

...and Cons

5. Notwithstanding its popularity, bicycle usage in Shanghai for thefuture faces two considerable problems. First, bicycles do not make optimaluse of Shanghai's scarce road space, especially dovntown. Second, the closerelations between home and workplace which encourages bicycle useage are some-what of an obstacle to modernization of Shanghai's economy. A third lesstangible problem is a misconception, nevertheless growing, that bicycles as amode of travel do not somehow equate with progress.

6. Network Capacity. The conflict between bicycles and motorized traf-fic creates serious congestion and travel time losses (particularly in thecity core, which although only 1.5 percent of the municipal area accounts forabout 50 percent of all trips). Average traffic speed in Shanghai is around15 km per hour. Buses are particularly hampered by mixed traffic conditionsand average bus speeds around 8 km per hour are often lower than that of thebicycles. This imposes serious capacity constraints on the available roadspace since a bikeway is capable of carrying about 6,000 passengers per hourwhereas the capacity of an equivalent bus lane could be as high as 20,000passengers per hour.4/ Parking of bicycles at downtown destinations addsfurther to congestion. Although often organized in pay parking spaces, bicy-cles typically occupy limited sidewalk space. The resulting congestion andspillover tend to force pedestrians into the road, which further negativelyaffects traffic flows and creates traffic hazards.

7. Shanghai's solution to street capacity maximization is to segregatebicycle and motor vehicle traffic either in exclusive street networks or,where sufficient width of street exists, in semi-exclusive traffic lanes withphysical barriers separating the different flows, and to implement trafficengineering and control measures to Legulate flows at crossings and intersec-tions. Considerable attention has been paid to this solution in the projectas described in the main body of this annex.

S. In addition to physical facilities being provided, the role of traf-fic regulation and enforcement will play a major role in ensuring that theefficiency Rnd convenience of Shanghai's segregated network will materialize.However, the ability and capacity of the traffic police to influence the oftenundisciplined behavior of Shanghai's cyclists and motorists at intersectionsand along one-way systems have not been demonstrated clearly. Experiencedgained under the proposed project will help contribute to development of therequired capacity and measures called for, including more self-operatingintersection designs and signal control systems.

9. Strategic Planning. A great deal of Shanghai's industry and com-merce (including noxious trades) is located in areas of mixed land use, muchof it in the aging buildings of the central area once erected for other pur-poses and now an inefficient basis for modern processes and production lines.

4/ Automobiles, with an average occupancy of 1.5 (not including the profes-sional driver normally employed in China), would face a lane capacity ofabout 1,200 passengers per hour.

-51- ANPNEX 1AttachmentPage 4

Future economic growth in Shanghai is likely to entail industrial restructur-ing and relocation, coupled with the divestiture of housing and enterprises'other social welfare responsibilities. This will, among other things, facili-tate greater labor mobility and freedom of locational choice for industriesand residents. These choices will reflect, in large part, trade-offs betweenhousing and transportation costs. Lotnger commuting distances will arise asthe city spreads and will likely increase the significance of public transportmodes. Adequate provision of an attractive, convenient public transport systemwill become a major objective for a growing Shanghai. Bus passes are alreadyprovided to workers at a heavily subsidized price both to compensate forlonger journey times and to encourage public transport useage.

10. By the year 2000, trip demand ia estimated by Shanghai's transportplanners to total 32 million, nearly So percent more than in 1986. By then,about 10 million bicycles are estimated to be in Shanghai. Many families willalso by then have relocated to the satellite townships (now under constructionat a rate of 80,000 units per year) ringing the city, and the average worktrip length will at least have doubled along roughly radial routes across thecity. In this scenario, the number of public transport trips is expected bythe planners to grow dramatically, to serve about 80 percent of the totaldemand from its present level of 26 percent. This should be achieved byimproved public transport services, including the subway line now under con-struction. Additional arterial roads are under construction, and a reductionin the congestion of secondary roads is anticipated. Bus speeds are expectedto rise and services improve through traffic segregation measures, such asexclusive busways. The role of the bicycle, though much diminished, will beas in the past to serve relatively short trips, including "park and ride'journeys.

Nonmotor Vehicle Options

11. Careful planning of future residential and industrial location coulddo much to maintain the current role of the bicycle and disperse the conges-tion implied in the year 2000 scenar.'.o described above. Experience in othercities indicates that as populations decentralize, trips become lateral ratherthan radial, hence the prospect of nearby employment and convenient accesscould remain if industrial and commercial locations were well coordinated withresidential locations. Also, in new estate developments, the opportuwliy toassign adequate space for segregated bikeways, parking, and footpatFs (tominimize vehicular access) should be taken at the outset. Future technicalassistance to Shanghai for land management and residential/industrial develop-ment design would help Shanghai's land use planners and developers devisesuitable plans and measures. Tools for the analysis of alternative scenariosand strategies already exist in Shanghai and would be further developed underthe project.

Postscript

12. The bicycle is demonstrably an appropriate technology for urbantransport purposes in China's cities. The Bank has supported, indeed pio-neered, the application of appropriate technologies widely in many sectors andnumerous operations worldwide. The significance of such technologies in con-

-52- ANNEX 1AttachmentPage 5

tributing to affordable, replicable solutions to the burgeoning demands ofurban dwellers is unfortunately not always appreciated and often is viewed asa second-class solution. Close attention to information and education of theusers, planners, designers, and administrators is essential in establishingthe technology. In China more generally and Shanghai's case in particular,the persuasion is largely unnecessary since the system is already in place.However, if this efficient, private, human-powered urban transport system isto survive in Shanghai, new measures must be found to adapt it cost-effec-tively to the demands of a growing megacity and enable it to compete with theclamor for motorized alternatives in the face of growing expectations in thestandard of living.

-53- ANNEX 2Page 1

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

CHINA

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT

Traffic Management and SafetZ

PART It TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT COMPONENT

Objectives and Scope

1. The traffic management component is designed to increase the capac-ity of the transport network in and around the Central Business District (COD)and reduce congestion caused by conflicts between inherently Incompatible roadusers (bicycles, pedestrians, and motor vehicles) competing with one anotherfor limited road space. This component would contribute significantly toimproving the efficiencl of the transport network by providing priority forthe movement of people and goods in locations essential to the economic well-being of the city.

2. The traffic management component comprises low-cost small-scaletraffic engineering and control measures designed to Improve travel conditionsfor cylists, pedestrians, public transport, and commercial vehicles in andaround the CBD of Shanghai.

3. These measures provide thp basis for the implementation of the fol-lowing three priority traffic management action programs (which are illus-trated in Maps 22043, 22117, and 22118),

(a) the NHV action program: the establishment of an exclusive NonmotorVehicle (NMV) route network, 19.4 km in length, in and around theCBD;

(b) the CBD action programs the development of a comprehensive trafficmanagement system for the CBD road network, 26.2 km in length; and

(c) the N8C action programt the implementation of the first stage ofthe North-South Corridor (NSC) improvement program comprising theestablishment of an exclusive busway, 1.1 km in length, along theWaitan and traffic engineering and control measures to the north ofthe recently constructed Wusong Bridge.

4. The component would include provision of the following traffic engi-neering and contgol measures:

(a) the provision of 67 new sets of traffic signals (of which 27 or40 percent would be linked to the existing Area Traffic Control(ATC) system);

-54- ANNEX 2Page 2

(b) the modification of 19 existing sets of traffic signqls (of which 12would be linked to the existing ATC system);

(c) the channelization of 108 intersections and some 2.2 km of streets;

(d) the provision of 1,455 sets of traffic signs and associated lanemarkings along 45.4 km of streets;

(e) the construction of six missing links in the proposed NMV network;and

(f) the provision of bus priority facilities (including the establish-ment of a 1.1-km busway).

5. The summary cost estimates of the traffic management component arepresented in Annex 2, Table 1; the unit costs and quantities are presented inAnnex 2, Table 2; the implementation program (showing the annual developmentof the action programs which comprise the traffic management component) ispresented in Annex 2, Table 3; the implementation schedule (showing annualphasing of civil works and equipment) is presented in Annex 2, Table 4; andthe expenditure program is presented in Annex 2, Table 5.

The Nonmotor Vehicle Action Program

6. The Nonmotor Vehicle (NMV) action program would increase capacityfor bicycles (and other nonmotor vehicles) by the provision of 19.4 km ofexclusive NMV routes each 2 x 4 lanes wide (thereby providing a total of77.6 km of bicycle lane in each direction) through:

(a) the establishment of a network of ten NMV routes from the conversionof 17.8 km of existing, buL little used, secondary roads for exclu-sive NHV use; and

(b) the construction of 1,6 km of missing links at six strategic pointsin the proposed *exclusive NWV network;

7. The NMO route network would reduce congestion to buses and othermotor vehicles caused by bicycles (and other nonmotor vehicles) along heavilytrafficked routes by rerouting NMVs to parallel exclusive NMV routes. It wouldalso contribute to improving the efficiency of the transport network by:

(a) making better use of existing, but under-used, road space;

(b) allocating road space in a more rational manner and in a manner moresuited to road-user needs;

(c) reducing delays for NMV and vehicular traffic; and

(d) reducing the risk of accidents.

8. SMO began the Implementation of the NHV network in 1990. The proj-ect would include the second phase of a comprehensive, long-term, exclusivelNW network development program and would comprise the following componentst

55 ~~~~AM=E 2Page 3

(a) provision of approximately 575 sets of traffic signs, 1,000 m ofchannelization, miscellaneous road markings, etc., for converting17.8 km existing streets to exclusive NKV use8

(b) the provision of about 39 sets of traffic signals, the modificationof three sets of traffic signals, and the channelization at about 39locations for modifying or improving intersections between the pro-posed NIV routes and existing motor vehicle streetes and

(c) the construction (and associated demolition and relocation) of some1.6 km of exclusive NMV roadway to provide missing links at sixstrategic points (including the construction of an exclusive WVbridge across the Suzhou Creek at Puji) in the proposed NMV routenetwork.

9. The unit costs and quanties of the NkW action program are presentedin Annex 2, Table 6, and the NMV action program implemeutation schedule ispresented in Annex 2, Table 7.

The CBD Action Program

10. The CBD action program is designed to improve the performance of theCBD road network to meet the needs of pedestrians (pedestrianixed streets,sidewalk improvements, etc.), bicycles (IKV lanes, etc., to complement the NHYaction program within the CBD), buses and their passengers (but priorityfacilities, bus stop improvements, etc.), $through* traffic (use of streetsaround the CBD to form a motor-vehicle-only 'ring road'), and essential com-mercial and emergency vehicle access (use of selected streets within the CBDto form a commercial distribution network, demarcation of 'loading bays., one-vay streets, etc.).

11. The project would include the first six-year phase of a comprehen-sive, long-term CBD traffic management program and would comprise the follow-ing componentsi

(a) the provision of approximately 600 sets of traffic signs, 1,200meters of channelization, and mlicellaneous road markings, etc., forconverting 26.2 km of existing streets to exclusive motor vehicleuse, to one-way systems, to counterflow bus lanes and NMV lanes,etc.s and

(b) the provision of about 16 sets of traffic signals, the modificationof about 11 sets of traffic signals, and the channelization at some61 locations for modifying or improving critical intersectionswithin the CBD motor vehicle network.

12. The unit costs and quantities of the CBD action program are presen-ted ln Annex 2, Table 8, and the CBD action program implementation schedule ispresented ..n Annex 2, Table 9.

-56- ANNEX 2Page 4

The North-South Corridor (NsC) Action Program

13. The NSC action program is designed to impro..e public transport oper-ations along the Bund and across Suzhou Creek. It complements the construc-tion of the Wusong Bridge, which opened for traffic in June 1991. The con-struction of Wusong Bridge and the NSC action program represent the firststage in the improvement of the North-South Corridor linking Vusong withNanmatu via the COD. This corridor carries the highest bus passenger volume3(estimated to reach 60,000 passengers per hour in both directions) in metropo-litan Shanghai. The NSC action program is, therefore, designed to provideurgently needed capacity for bus movements along this heavily trafficked sec-tion of the North-South Corridor. The program would be implemented during1991/92 and would comprise the following:

(a) the conversion of part of the existing carriageway along the Bund(saoe 1.1 km in length) into an exclusive busway and the conversionof the existing Waibaidu Bridge to exclusive bus use (now thatWusong Bridge is complete);

(b) the provision of approximately 280 sets of traffic signs, 700 m2 ofbus lay-bye, 3,300 m2 of bus stop platforms, the rerouting of1.35 km of overhead trolley bus power lines and miscellaneous roadmarkings, etc., to establish the buavay and associated traffic man-agement measures to the north of Sushou Creek; and

(c) the provision of about 12 sets of traffic signals, the modificationof five sets of traffic signals, and the channelization at eightlocations to modify or improve critical Intersections within theproposed NSC bus and motor vehicle network.

14. The unit costs and quanties of the NSC action program are presentedin Annex 2, Table 10, and the NSC action program Implementation schedule ispresented in Annex 2, Table 11.

PART Its TRAFFIC SAFETY

15. The Traffic Safety component would provide the Shanghai Public Secu-rity Bureau (SPSB) with the computer equipment needed tos

(a) modify accident reporting and data collection procedures to improvethe quantity and quality of basic accident datal

(b) carry out the analysis of accident data to identify blackspot loca-tions and contributory factors, and to permit the design and imple-mentation of effective accident prevention measures:

(c) identify, design, and execute remedial traffic engineering and con-trol measures at specific locations or times of day; and

-57- ANNE 2Page 5

(d) monitor the effectiveness of the above measures in accident andinjury reduction.

16. A pilot scheme would be carried out initially in one city districtselected as being representative in terms of the characteristics of accidentscurrently occurring in Shanghai. The results of the pilot scheme would be usedsubsequently to replicate in other city districts those measures which provedeffective in reducing accidents and injuries as part of a comprehensive traf-fic safety program.

17. The project would include the financing of the following equipments

(a) one personal computer with a large-capacity hard drive of 120 Mega-bytes or more (equivalent to an IBM PS/2 Model 70 with 120- megabytehard disk, 25 MHz clock speed) estimated to cost $11,300 equivalent;

(b) one color monitor (compatible with the computer described in para. 3(a) above) with high resolution (equivalent to an IBM 8514 high-resolution monitor) estimated to cost $1,551 equivalents and onecompatible high-resolution display adaptor (equivalent to an IBM8514JA display adaptor) estimated to cost $1,291 equivalent;

(c) one color printer estimated to cost $1,400 equivalent;

(d) two digital terminals with Chinese characters (VT320 or equivalent)estimated to cost $550 equivalent each;

(e) a GKS software package for VMS 5.0 estimated to cost $4,000; and

(f) one plotter, continuous feod, 36 inches wide (Calcomp or equiva-lent).

-58- ANSX 2Page 6

361f COST TA=

IT4 t#4NNV PROORAH 1 COD PROORA N 8 CPROORAN TiOTL PT RO RRA"

Local a.n Total NW Local Forelpn Total CD Local Foreign Tetet mC t Loa Pe.reoi Total TOT

:AI Traffic Slg,aloe I 1.i 0.62 2.80 S3: 0.72 0.86 1.00 18I: 0.84 0.0 C '6 353: 3.02 1.20 4.22 11$

2 0.) 7 :

11M: Signals 883 8o SOS : 243 303 263 16x 1 18 : 1 100 1o"s~ , . ,, .1. ,t: ,::

:6: Traffic Sigtal. : 0.05 0.04 0.09 Ol: 0-.2 0.49 0.? 11o : 0.20 0.02 0.22 ION: 0.82 0.88 1.00 aS:

: ipra4d) :::::3 Uplrad.d Signl: I so as : 8n 66 713 38 43 213 l: 0 1006 100i

.. . . ........ I.. .. ............... . . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . ......... .. - .: ...... ... . ,......,...,...

:C: Camwelimation : 1.88 0.00 1.88 88: .99 0.00 8.99 893: 0.80 0.00 0.50 283i: 5.87 0.00 .867 1m3:(Junctiomn)

Jtlon 243 o 23 : 6 0 a : as Os a t low O31003

:0: Chaaellatien : 0.20 0.00 0.20 ot: 0.59 0.00 0.89 96: 0.00 0.00 0.00 *1:s O.?* 0.00 0.79 24:: illdblockI) s : a t

: SNldsloc : 28 06i 283 : 786 0 786 t 03 06 03i :136 C6 1003 :

... .......... 2 ............ ........................:. . . . . . :. ... I..........

Il: Sign aWd i4rlin I 0.88 0.00 C.88 IS: 0.88 0.00 0.88 on: 0.20 0.00 0.21 186: 1.02 0.00 1.02 8S:

: SgaWrdg: 83 0 63 : 87t383 : 93 0 7 : :06 03 10

.................... .. .. . .... .. ,. . ., .. I...................:Ft Nianing L4nk0 : 24.10 1.88 50.74 Mt 0.00 0.00 0.00 GOl 0.00 0.00 0.00 05: 26.10 1.88 20.74 66i:

nslng lo : ion0 Ol t 1001 03 0 5a an as as on : I00ll IOii 100tt . .. ........ ... :.. ... ... I... ... .... s................ ............. .. ........ ... ........ .. ..... .t.......... t....... . . ......... ..... :

tOt &M p1CIlitleo I 0.00 0.00 0.00 Olt 0.00 0.00 0.00 01: 0.40 0.00 0.40 US: 0.40 0.00 0.40 1St

3Saailte . 3 ,3 ,, , ,3 ,3 , 3 .100 0. 190 . 10. 0.. 100I * gm« UtatliOies I asi an an t 401 OSi an I IGOD as lOi t I co lowS t

:S9 A C08TS 7.91 2.1 80.19 SOON3 S.95 0.6 0.o0 0s: 1.91 0.15 9.26 1005: tJ.79 8.82 3.10 10Wm:

Aidult eatlbon t1.89 0.00 1.89 6ti 0.81 000 0.81 Sol 0.10 0.00 0.10 81: 1.80 0.00 1.00 85:

tTOTAO NW COMS 2 39.8t 2.90 81. 10 6.20 0.65 7.11 10i 2.01 0.20 2.26 1063: 37.8 8.39 40.90 1063:

Plum : 6.00 0.2e 0.06 2.Oi 195 *.1S 2.13 1SU: 0.45 0.06 0.48 Mi: 8.2S 0.44 0.66 M2-:

t.S

ot-o orlo o.-o2

0:0 o00'0 o 'o t al3 1 " Je g0 : oeJiR inwe Sol 10i () (a)

o-o COl 010 t0 p a" iOtt o ot-pin d"S s1 CL) $ 1 IJIj gmtO;

:~~~~~~WV a 1 110 : :*31* *- It'S : d I ^ l..it

....... ....... ....... ....... ......... . . . . . I.......... ............ ... .... ...

"It u 8* 99t re o.u '9 $ 0Oem' 3 i I ;w * $ t J 5)9:WL RIQ Celt 931 i C. t 3) t A" ot t ti) 2w Sdt

030 eo-o 03L0 2 90.t s 2 mqt : rS ,() 2UtO oo'o uo s oon 2 .B@ t 2 o (a) I a 0v 9

* o Colo a,*0 O "VT0Q 901#-qw C)aIg1110a a

2' 99.0 00C0 CLI0 0 9:0 J" B 9 t (3) £

' 01 00 10 9 S ' 6 : O g000 J OnV (a) I$ *()0 Colo 0 2 01O U 2 oniu Jed O9! on 00 ~ O (1) No#uvzrimwoo mmii-ts

901 W O 33 O 4 1 : : e 9*js_ s :

s ozo moD s0o : a Ogs3 0 o0o0 0000 2: s v:> o0 O pos (a):B0 60 'o O 2 t oe 0 000 o o$9 ooo*" 09 39-u4 (a): S16 I 1J:6 2

:z :, ,al :0- 'to : 90

...... . . .. ...... .. , . . .. . . .. ,,,, I ........... ....... .. .. ..

IL' 0tl5 t a O 2 08 000't 000'03 2' 9jyl-U (£) 2

2 400 00o0 o 0e0 a s 0* 0 00083 OOO'S 2 ((P.1o W /)g*¢ (:): ?e^7 S nn-l t *p. : f'tJ 2n f p^~tf pS 2

2sne 1JC"l2 i"8}g*l> (til 2 tS0WJ? =1 ^ 2

2:,"Hp (cg) ( * 24 Io9 (MO (W4 ( qW (qW 2 2

a 2 2 a 0J % 3g Lb A 2

AM"A*mvI sew smu =&v&

AWa0ms hmDdwKmL #*hXtd1m I"w"

WWI. 1U 3ro 4 2

£ 31tSwjtz 9olb

-60- - 2Page 8

Fl le s9VW@AMlAPUL:V. 1O0o-0w9pp TAU. 3

WIA"t IWI0P"UM4 lRDU09? 9501901RA95 ICWMA09ff csoiuit

tAC~~~6w T Sui n A aA eI os

t t:I( Co" I Km Co"t KM Cat Km KItM Cost:K Coo 1 t , Kee Cot I (RNa. .e)s I() (t.O)t (S) bb.G)i (1) Ote): (t M PA.w) i(91) (ftb. 0t (s bu) t)

t NefzWV t1.6 * .25 I 9.00 0.00 0.00 't US .98 ON 1.49: 250 1.49t NW Rout. 2 82.0 .20: 1009 7.20: 0.00 : 0.00 0.00: 0.00 0.<00

I NWRwte a .2.4 S."9 100 5."9 0.*0: 0.00 t 0.00: 0.00: 0.00 N W Rount 6 : 1.5 0.60: 0.00: 805 4.80 809 4.80 O.00: 0.00 o0.00:

WV Rtouto a I 2.9 0.72 t 100 0.72: 0.00: 0.00; 0.00 0.00: 0.00NM1V Raulto 6 : 1.4 0.86 U09B 0.85 : 0.00 : 0.00 : 0. 0.00: 0.00WV Rout$e 7 .4 0.15 : 0.00: 505 0.17 50i 0.17 t 0.00: 0.00: 0.00: NlW Route a t 1.0 0.25: 0.00 8X0 0.12 501 0.12: 0.00: 0.00: 0.00lo1w Rout* 9 : 1.1 0.27: 0.00 US 0.14 80 0.14 0.0 0.00: 0.00

I ,.,........,... .. ... ,,............................,.,,.,,:.,. ........ .,,,, ............. ........ .. .. .. ... .. .. .. ..#0WRot 0 .009 : 10609: 0.0: 0.0: 0.0: 0.0 :.

tta St (i.oCate): : 17.8 80.15 14.78S: 14 4.78 tI C4 4.78: 45 2.q0 25S 1.49 25 1.40

ob-4otea* I : 2.0 0.7: 786 0.81 :25 0.7 I 0.00: 0.00: 0.00: 0.00Sob44t.rl* 2 s 6.8 1.6 t 0.00: 201 0.80 t 409 0.65: 401 0.65: 0.00 0.00:Sub-Wteotr S : 5.5 1.4: 0.00: 10% 0.14: 206 0.29: 256 0.50 : 255 0.36: 206 0.29

&-W* 4 : 4.6 1.18 0.00: 20a 0.80: -s 0.80 M 0.80 25 0.80: 0.00:t Sb-Nbu* B , 8.0 0.78: 0.00 g5o 0.19: S 0.19: 2 0.1: go 0.19: 0.00;*AN te 0 : 4.8 1.10 s 0.00: 2I0 0.25 IOXS 0.56 : 2 Q5 O.2S: 0.00 0.00:

I t ~ ~ ~ : I : ; : :Stubte.tl (basesC)t t20.2 0.80 t n 0.81 21 1.40 29 1.8: 28 1.77 2 o0.85s 4 0.29:

tc: MC v. 5 - '

I $outh (ar) : 1.1 1.85 S 0.00 tS0 0.00 I a 0.66: 0.00: t 0.00 0.00:NAt Ohm") 0.5 0.79: 0.00: 806 0.40 t 80 0.40 0.00 0.00: 0.00;

. t,t:. . :.: : :

s &btotl Siues Ca): : 1.4 2.N 1 06 0.00: 503 1.00 t 50 1,08 0 .0.00: 0 0.00: 05 0.00:

Am eooa OtM lH peaat :45. 92.10 t 21 t8.24t 1 7.811 24S 7.79: 175 4.71 06 2.81 * 1.77: t

r sI , an lnt, w I .s5UUIWU Y.WW** -, pim~ bqwlU"Wo*UU.

-61- N 2Page 9

Pi I*:SN4#4SI\A53\AX8lL3J10..o-69gg.w p 16.4

8V61512 UPULITDM 1 ?tR PROJIRA53I W14SDW P E

, SW IM S --*-

:CSChinTa :-Rs... )--.... Cas : cost I Cost Cot t Ct

:NOV. CID, OC Pogrems) 'Le", Flatn Tota (3.1.): (5) (R.D): (l) (.e))-): ( 3) ).:): ( (.-.)

ii. 1.10 WUIIIU

Ooaoi tlos :17.60 0.10 17.0: 6 811.40 8as 0.62 J0.41 1 to 2.6? 7 1.J4 : 73 1.84 tP.eottlou.nt : 0.00 0.00 0.00 ON 0.00: va 0.00: Os 0000 I 0 0.90 at 0.00 t 050 .CO:X vsXlislee I 0.09 0.00 0.09 100 0.09 : 0a 0.00: On 0.00 I an 0.00 as 0.00 011 0.00 :

............. ..... .......... . . . ..........

ISuqb-Total (1) 17.69 0.1 16.07 5 03 11.49 : 0 0.62 Ot 0.62 : 05 2.07: 03 1.34 V0 1.84:2. CIilv Wto I 5 : 2 :

Miosing Links : I0. 0.00 0." 65 .44" 00 0.00: t 0 0.00 t 1 0.12 I 03 0.06 I 0 0.06: Puji Steidg : 8.61 1.38 8.29 0 0.00: SOII 5.44 SOS 3.49: 05 0.00 N0 0.00 00 0.00:uo Fustibe* : 0.40 0.00 0.40: 00 0.00: 0 0.28: 803 0.20: 00S 0.00: 00 0.00 : 00 0.00:Signal* :1.69 0.00 1.69 : 0.60: 23 0.44 : 2 0.49 1111 :.21 SS 0.10 2 0.05:CheomllWlan : 6.68 0.00 6.80: 2Us 1.14: 212 1.42 271 10: 1t 1.25 : 0.60: S 0.23:

.. . . . . ......... . . . . . .......... .. . . . . ..... . . . ,.,.,,.,..... ... , , .. . ............

Sob-Totol (2) :18.2= 1.6 16.61 t 141 2.89 S .5 a .99 t10 1.69 S S 0.76 26 0.83:a. Od.: t :

: igsi,loot* :1.6a 1.76 8.41: 8 1.10: 281 0.8 I M 0.53: 113 0.85: a 0.1 6 21 0.06:sigw, ate" 1.02 0.00 1.02 t 20d 0.25l 26 0.17 201 0.80 11t 0.11 t5 0.06 26 0.02:

.. ...... - .... - ........... . .. t. : .

U1A-Total (8) : 2.07 1.76 4.48 2 813 1.86 24 1.6 213 1.181: 111 0.49 II 0.24 I 26 0.11

:~~~~~ VW.1vlt, 'U) 7JW.Nu . 4v VW IV.= t.s 30 Ma I. w%xXw sr. WV *.f:

uss-ouiv l.o1 0.:1 0.00 0.oww 2Iy 0. 1.s aus 0. Is 571111 0.0: In 0.01 I Its 0.08 t So 0.09

*FinalI &a. 2.05: 1.09 O.C0 1.0Ott 42 0.04 : SONl 0.42 s 2 0.82 1990. o.n 9 0 .10 t 06 0.00t

Conot. Son. 0.$8S 0.20 0.00 0.20a: 18 0.06 s t0.4 :I 21 0.06: t 101 0.04: 1" 0.04: IS 0.00:.. . . . . . ..... . . . . . . . .... . . . ..... .... .......... ,.:.,,.:.... t .,,,......,,, ,,,....I ........... :I

Sub-T otl : 1.80 0.0Ct 1.60: 100 0.18: 824 0.61 : M6 0.48 : 5 0.32: 113 0.20 go 0.06:

X ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ :ro .. u.. w.g:ps,q : t u. I 1 . : n.gO uLU

Phy,loil Ccmt1inacioo :I .76 0.14 4.09 :8 1.84 s 1 0.79: 30 0.0:2 1 0.1: 63 0.28 43 0.18

Price CoertAtnes,oI 0.2s 0.44 6.53 . 15 0.4: t Ia 1.06 : I 2.10 : 1 1.98 : 1 1.27: 11311 1.14:

Tta76l Coet: :49.5 4.09 S8.0 8 517. I 1S3 9.07 t 213 11.2? : 145 7.58 1 a5 4.06 t 61 8.1:

-62- A0S 2Page 10

IRWWIC _A TV c.ll

I IL~~ T U w U U S- I .. . . 5 U 1 .. S a * z- vr c ................. e..

:910GW) :.b.Z): 0 - .F W: .Z ?, ,) ), .W) ): .e) 3 :..

: t ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~:I :1 1 19) ,il :99 :199

I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

:Ibe Cast 81.8: t14.86 473: 26.08 64O: 251.5 01t 26.36 906: 80.08 981: 81-.8 1006:

: PlbylcsI : 8.18 : t.49 471: 2.01 646: 2.52 601: 2.64 6o01 5.00 953: .15 tO06:: Pr le 6S.06 : 0.01 l811i 1.65 27: 2.99 491: 4.28 701: 5.09 841t: 6.06 100L :

:%lou Cst : 40.74 : 17.15 425: 28.78 M6t6 60.65 Mt: 85.48 67: 16.12 9431: 40.74 100l6:,......................................................................... I...........................................................

:0D PR0OO1A : : : :

:Rww Cost 7.11 o0.e8 IS: 2.02 1S: 4.08 S71 1.92 68- 6.1 M6.: 7.11 1006:

Ph 1y;esl 0.71: 0.06 75: 0.2 M61: 0.41 573: 0.89 On: 0.86 966: 0.71 1005:Price . 2.18: 0.0 1S: 0.27 113: 0.68 891: 1.51, 713: 1.94 915: 2.13 100S:

:T7.1l Cost O 0.9": 0.91 66: 2.40 5: 5.8 61 5: 0.02 6l1: 9.48 981: 0.95 1001:...................... ............ ................ ............... I................................................... ..............

:9~P~1 : , : : : .:

loom Cost s 2.26 t 0.0S 11$ 1.18 Mt 2.26 1o0o: 1:.26 lw; 2.261 1006: 2.26 1006sCestlngoet. : : : :

ph7 .14sI S 0.2: 0.00 I3: 0.11 5t1: 0.28 1006 0.28 100lt 0.2I 10001t A 0.2 1t PriCo C .4:: 0.0 06: 0.18 866J: 0.40 100: 0.46 06: 0.48 1003: 0.41 10011:

sTe.t Cost . 2.90 0.06 I5: 1.45 491: 2.9? 1006: 2.9 t 100t: 2.97 1001: 2.9? 1100:

*4L t~~ ~ ~~~ ~~~~~~ : - t

some Coms 40*.9 t 15.42 181 28.25 61: 8149 ?3 86.86 6M6: 89.09 961: 40.90 1.0o::C..tlaosumelo : I I S : : I

ph7t.si ' 4.06 : 1.84 Mt 2.83 573t 8.18 7M1: 8.66 6O: 8.91 O96: 4.00 1001S Prico s 0.66 0.S4 10I 2.10 25t 4.80 *03 0.28 71i: 7.82 1sil O.ff 1006:

7ts5 CosI : 8.65 : 17.00 Mt WAY Sol 66.98 M: 46.46 6l 89.8 945: 82.65 101:

-63-AN 2Pasge 11

Fi I*:S#NWAFR%A31WMl 10-ft-OW TAM a

SIW0W MRWPOUrr TRM*W i#Wr

N Wr mom - Wm? Cmt A01wXt

U -I w a I r v WJ"III II a t I I:V Civil 1.1t S t O*l lereI t l Tot

t : si\i-}~~~~~~~~~~~~~:oAx SoU iLem Felo s t e

X : t tAt~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~O) 14) ob) CUM : (Uhil): ob6.e) oWb6.o CASb.a)

sNN~a.. awqAI.D~ 2 I~~J Ie~ujcwIru. 237 20..15m WOW V W&Z,'Aw £22 V.96-- 2,.3 J..do

t v{(2) SCATS(uIe amrlllor) I 2@.000 0.00 0 a 0s: 0 0.00 0.00 0.00:(3) Mon-SCATS : 20,000 M0,00 $.O000 25 1.al 0.00 1.13:

t :~~~~~~~~ .......................... ................................ : . .... ........ 1 .... . ....... ...... .... ... ...

Sub-rtetl A . : l: 1.76 0.62 2.39

:8tStI IRAFUtC SIOELfS t (1) NObi-SCATS tO SCATS 2s.000 0 0 t12.000 I 0.03 0.04 0.0o(2) U ificatice of SCATS : 20,000 @0,000 0 61,20: 0: 0.00 0.00 0.00(3) SCATS b Uta-SCATS t 0 0 10,000) 01 2: 0.02 0.00 0.02

: : ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~................ . ... ....... . ........ . ... ,, , ........ ........- ....... ....... .... ...........:

: Sb-Totel i : : 0.05 0.04 0.09

:C:cACrtON aWOJZArTIl : (1) Sanic : 30,000 per ltereecti;en : 36 1.05q 0.00 1.08:2 (2) Co.emple 74.000 per Inlere.eien a 0. 0.00 0. 152 (3) Very Ceou 2m:110,000 per I"ter.tI n 1 0.15 0.00 0.1 :2t . . . ... ........... . . . ...... ......... 2 ..................... ........ .... .......

Sob-Trol c : 39: 1.16 0.00 1.3l.1

t0:Sj10O.0 0 0911ZATtOm : (1) luel c : 200 pW I lame Wr I 1000 2 0.20 0.00 0.20:t (2) Cowles t iam pedI llr new t 0 S 0.00 0.00 0.00:

.1 ; , t , t .................. .............. ... ......... ....... ....... 2.....

2 2 Stb-r oI 0 : 1000 : 0.20 0.00 0.20:: t t t ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~t I

te:s5 AM OI(DQJ t (1) Treffc 8IIS * 600 pt Spe PR i 0.29 0.00 0.29t (2) Lian bhrklna t2 1 I.two va t 604 a 0.0 0.00 0.00:

t 2 . ........ 2.......... ........... . ......... 2.................. ....... .............

I I bI@10I g : 2 0.16 0.C0 0.6 2

: tttP:NMISUD t S (1) om.itiSenN8 t 1.810 er tA (6 14.3 t) t ISM l 7.60 0.18 17.96

2 2 (2) Coo\g4,uetI 4 t I 1u - oh Fe 0.87 t SiOS I 6.111 1.16 7.76o:2 2 X ....................... ......................... 2...... ..... ....... .......2.....

a 6*-lesalP 2 2 a @0.18 1.86 6.64 t

t 2 2 2 t tt:t05 FACILIIU I (1) be Step widerning t 140 per s2 0t 0.00 0.00 0.00 t

I (2) &so St" louds I s0 per w : 0.00 0.00 0.00 ta (S) 7Tol lay 6au tVreo :0,11000 Wear t a 0.00 0.00 0.00 t

t t2- t-----t.. ... ....... ..... t .. . ............ ........ ... - tt t &3Tptel C t t 0 t 0.00 0.00 0.00 :

tT II a. W n * F C u v i Wa p p. so.ae I

,%~IAI~; UMinDi *w,m a OINiruug VI Wu;g * euWia..a JumuIne M y W o2211.e %W. VI VuJi m*gJ 0 .aI " IUMeu to3 swig

ANNEX 2-64- Page 12

P1 l,:U~~39~hPR~53TUL2RM1X VA1049M c?WA IWW@A I eUIRPOUt t pm ay 1pjjxT

#1W DCTI06 nwrf li WVUN6. A

tlO4Ut P@i tet0a 7 5: (3) (%6.v): ) (" :1) (>.a: MI (W.N)f () (rAb-O): (3) -ae

*1. su.u.,a

* eelg4i.e :17.80 0.1 17.98 6 11.40 : St 0.82 St 0.02 : 15 2.67: 73 1.84 : 71 1.84t Rsbtlooelb t 0.00 0.00 0.00 t 01 0.00 I 1tA 0.00t 01 o 0.00 t 0.00I 03 0.00 t 0 0.00C: I Ittie s 0.09 0.00 0.09 10o 0.09 : 01 0.00D I 05 0.00 t 03 0.00 03 0.00 : 01 0.00:

: ~~~~~~~~~~~~. . . . . ..... .... .. , . . . . ........ I.. .. . . . . .. . .. . . ...........: gb-Tobal (1) :17.89 0.16 18.07: 64 11.4: 0.62 St 0.62: 16 2.37 71 1.34 71 1.84

:2. Clvi VorkI :W: :Miesirg Lnles : 0.68 0.00 0.S8 C*i 0.44": Os 0.00: 01 0.00: 18S 0.12: 0.00: 91 0.00Pgji or Ide 8.61 1.39 0."9 : 01 0.00: NS0 8.49 501 8.49: 01 0.00: 01 0.00 01 0.00Si-gle :0.86 0.00 0.66 68 0.60: 14 0.12: 14S 0.12: 41 0.04: 2 0.02: 2 0.08:ChinoilItat4len : 1.56 0.00 1.56 61U 1.00: 141 0.25:: 141 0.22 . 41 0.07 : Zl 0.08:: 21 0.06

sub-Tal (2) : 6.75 1.86 10.12 201 2.00: Sol 3.64: -11 3.64: 21 0.22 t 11 0.11: 11 0.11:8.Oitd : : : :::

: gnslo, *to :0.48 0.67 1.89: 611 1.01: 14 0.22: 14 0.25: 41 0.07 25 0.03: 3 0.06:signs ate t0.86 0.00 0.368 1 1 0.23: U1 0.00: 141 0.06: 4 0.02: 2 0.01: 2t 0.01:

:~~~~~~~~~~~. . . . . . . . . . ...... . . ...... . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . ............. : ..,.::.:.: S-,Toel (a) : 1.209 0.67 1.96 t 6311 1.24 : 141 0.27: 141 0.27: 41 0.08: 2i 0.04: 21 0.04

= a-I*"# %114131 -2.9 Mu -0.1_ Wma w.w: Fe M M.-t is M *0^9 Mt11I 9 a

indWm 1 w z . : - :Admnletiretin 1.911: 0.39 0.00 0.89 : 251 0.10: 8011 0.12: lag 0.061: 1ll 0.09: la 0.04: S 0.02:Final Eno. 2.411: 0.64 0.00 0.64 t 0S 0.00: 406 0.84: 50 0.25: 203 0.17: 101 0.00a 0 OR 0.00:C:not. SBn. 0.5: 0.715 0.00 0. IS: 20 0.00: 20M 0.03: 201 0.0: 23 0.08: Ol 0.03 1 0.00:.. .. : ... ... I . . . . ....... . .. . . . . .. .. .. . .. . .. . . .:.:.,.:.:.:. .. , . .. . .... .. ..

: b.Tota : 1.39 O.00 1.39: 91 0.18: 65M 0.49: 98M 0.84: 191 0.26 : 1I 0.18: 11S 0.02

:11 :y.a n. : :, qu i w~ u .a : *u ,a:o .. : :ppO

P:h4slcul Conthasltlatoe 2.95 0.29 8.16 I 471 1.49 II1I3 0.62: 1 0.91 : 1 10 0.89 S S 0.1 t: S1 0.15Price Coptinganci.e : 8.60 0.28 0.00 a 1111 0.61 141 0.34: 22 1.84: M 1.27: 141S 0.84 * 161 0.90

:e.ta Coott :9.04 2.70 40.74 : 4A 17.16 i 160 6.66 t 173 6.92 i 2 4.01 i 6N 2.t4 i 6t 2.6S2

na.A *ip in&.o 1^aI a p t m a a 8 - a A" J

t 010 00o0 00cl 1 S I"01-qJiS I

.... .. , . . . .. I ........ t. .---...--.-t----'-'---'''''-'-'-- .

Colo 0010 000 0 " .4" 00@.0I1' St9Iq Om & 11 (S) s:oo eColo Colo 'V a"bat e opalg. wgeq ) S5)I00-0 00-0 00-0 I 0 a *ed 4T ogutO-VIA ^S .e (t) ' mz.ru:wi wino

OO0 0010 0O I * 169011 S

I00O0 0010 0010 '0 12,30 im *j0 - 33 I A"I"ll"O9*IP (a) £

Ioo cOo coo ¢o o t Up g1:t o 0 t) D d g0't a G8ataIigmo (t) t Og?aiw'i64d3

3 ego 0 000 so0o t3 3 3 3 I"Olns I .. . . ... ..... ........ .......... . . .. . . . ....... .. .. I, .... ... .... ...

I 9000 Col o solo I st : IIjo *n Cs) s 3

I06'0 00C0 Colo ; 009 3 Om aed 000 t e I6s a-A, (1) 5 M)OWI 0w 6313Sms93

'or0o 00'0 9 0 Om OO0t 3 a

S ............ ....... ....... . ....... ................ . . ........ ............ . .

3 910 00o0 00 0001 joom Je"uI aed as9 3 oi"o (a) I I

t0 00-0 9040 005 t 05 l -Bad 005 t *it% () 0) w Dzr,mc Sm ti0a

t oo9 e o000 44 to 3 o gat-90 1 I S, ....... ...... .. . ..... , , ...... :......... I ;.... . ...... ........ .................

t 09B1 CO O sll t 00a..w,ual JiD 0W0 00- Xog4 LJDA (C)I 001' 00'0 colt K : 0 90*JO6J s B od cOOgU : ss;doo (a)I *8 ' 00'0 "90 39 ugJ*9Iset* 4Jd 0o000 I DI96 CO)I NOrINMc _NDNWb ;

: *o 1 o 6 3o 99 30 it 6 9o-qnS

....... . ..... . ..... - 1 -" ' l .... ,1.... ....... . ....... ........ ........

00o0 oOln 00e0 I 0 as W0'0s 0 0 SOV o : *--w OS uS (e) 3

00C0 0010o o 0 0 w00 O 00:' B 0000z3o aim'B AO io an,,*9 (a)ao 6o solo ut 0005'19 0 0 ooo0sz SMWS °9 sm-uq (C) Simi$ %I&M DISU:8

8001 sol0 UI-O 91t....... .... ..... ............. ...........

:30 zZ 000 40 u0 093 000D'0 e 00' oOWO IsG-uq- (5) :t0'0 4'00 00 : IS 0 00o0o 0009o5 (JoI It9 O/)S4OS (a): )

(t'~) (0.9011) (aqO 3 C("tun) (WIr) C4 Cqu (VW*UI*~~ § 3 3 *iJ@ *O@ 6908 9: @9 . . . . .. 3.3

: FWYA, wdelojei Ieae: I MA I I

£Trew eSd t

? XZMIW , O t 0 t

- 9vlI

ANN1EX 2-66- AM= 2i-66 ~~~~~~Page 14

PiI S.A:W4A0RASTWAL0610-Clea-41001 UAWLE9

soat "MralOUr TI-tIt O PW WJOTIAFIC _6N 06 n

CO AOff nAWM IIULWAnT S@4.B

..W WOLR '-P *I2 ' ..US 1K * Lp s ,d 0 , L ,

tLegoi FWan 0 Tote: (3) *% .0)t CB) (Rb.0)t :(f) b.6): (3) (PA.s): (3) (R .0): (3) tb.a)

om lltlon , 0.00 0.00 0.00 : 03 0.00 t 00 .00: 0 0.00 t l 0.00: as 0.00: 03 0.00:Rmeotooent t 0.00 0.00 0.00 06 0.00 I Os 0.00 * a 0.00: as 0.00: O 0.00:1 0o 0.00:v: tttte. : 0.00 0.00 0.00 O 0n 0.00: on 0.00 06s 0.00 : 03 0.00 as 0.00 : 0 0.00:

. t ........... .. t ............. ....... *,,.

Sub-Total (1) : 0.00 0.00 0.00: 06 0.00: 0 0.00: 0 0.00 as 0.00: 0o 0.00: 06 0.00::2. Civil 1ore , : t

0.00 0.00 0.0 06 0.00: 0. 0.00: 06 0.00: 06 0.00: 0s 0.00: 0o 0.00:: ........ . ...... : 0.00 0.00 0.00: 06 0.00: 06 0.00: Os 0.00 06 0.00: 0S 0.00: 06 0.00: : ign1aDl . ...... : 0.f6 0.00 0.65: 7r 0.05: 213 0.18 293 0.19 28 0.1l: 12 0.0 4S 0.09::m ewseiatilon s llst>| - .: 4.80 0.00 4.58: 73 0.84: 213 0.95 : 2" 1.83: 26S 1.20: 1 0.87: 43 0.19:

I ............ I............. .. .. .. . .: .. . . . . . .,. ..... . : .. . . . . .. . . . . ..........

Sub-Total (2) : S.29 0.00 5.28: 7S 0.89: 213 1.00 29S 1.52: 26S 1.86l: 11 0.65: 43 0.22

:. ode : : : :ISignals stst : 0.85 0.8S 1.20 13 0.09 s 213 0.25 : 293 0.35 : 263 0.81 121 0.15: 43 0.05:Sign, et:c : 0.80 0.00 0.8 : 73 0.06: 21 0.08: 293 0.11:t 253 0.10: 121 0.05 : S 0.02

:~~~~~~~~~~. . . . . . ....... ........ . ............ . . . ..... .. . .. . . .............

S 8ub-Ttl (3) : 0.18 0.06 1.57 S 7 0.1t2 213 0.82 293 0." 263 0.41 s 11 0 0.20 : 43 0.07

I m-goof t I4 J ; : ..s v. 9. . w :M Iv. I mm -. i: Io V.30 ;.1 in .Wy

Ad4lnistretion 1.83: 0.09 0.90 0.00: 611 0.00 t 20 0.02 : 20 0.02: i3 0.00: 206 0.02: 1331 0.01

Fi nol ag. 2.6:t 0.19 0.00 0.19 10 0.0:2 t J04 0.06 I 8 0.00: 2XS 0.0: 3 10 0.802: 06 0.00:CU,OS SPo. 0.3:. 0 .o 00 .05: 0.0 : o o00.0 18C51 0.01: 20 o0.Ot: t a O.O: 530.00:.... . ...... .. ., . t ... : . .......... : .. .............

: ub-Totol t 0.O1 0.00 0.8 83 0,0: 2 0.0: gm 0.00: o,a0 0.06: 143 0,06: a3 0.012 t : : S : :

t8GMTI1 s * 5. ; 5 .t1 * .*.wW * 2 V.U It 1 v.W

Phtjoie Cotinomis t 0.08 0.06 0.71: I 0.5 213 0.13: 20 0.21 : 203 0.10 1 U6 0.06 4 0.0: tPrice Cotingencies :1.W8 0.13 2.15: 190.03 1 0.14 t 5 0.35: 80 0.00 9 0 0.48 t 0.13:

:Total Ctab: :8.7 1.00 9.95 t 60.01* 193 1.61 1 5 2.68 t 1 2.71: 146 1.41 5 3 0.51 t

-67- AMNKX 2Page 15

Pil:EH\FaTlRElOz10t ' ~~~~~~~~~~~~TAM tO

P1 l.:W0\UPMTILE1:10-Oc4bap

IRAW iEcTMWr cR 1 W"IC AVW4 NIQW - emI 0T cog' R47175

ss*|~~~~~~~~~~~~~ .4b -- I - R 6 1. r0 * xt,., I~ u ..*

civClil Signl Cntritere : : L i Pero.ln T1 5

tV.e*." *at o a1 PS lgtn I :kg3 : : , ) (1d.) (PA) (US6) s (Units) i Qbe.) (Rd..) OW6..) I

:A-NO ~WMIRM I ¶tJ WRI@OUgNIW0I ,ur I 91,wv VOMJ. V 61m I a U.@ iJ-.J

t :() 9CATS(e/o canebl er) : 2S,000 20,010 0 t 0 0.00 0.00 0.0<O(3) lon-mTSC : 20,000 20.000 s,000 s0 7: 0.392 0.00 .32:

: : ~~~~~~~~.......................... ..................... :t........ ..... : ....... .. . ....... ... .... ....Sub-ToCto A 12: .. 0.4 0.22 0.76

:e:EW(WVsThAFIC ssL (1) Non-SCATS to SCATS : 28,000 0 0 812,000 : 0: 0.00 0.00 0.00t(2) Moditicatlen of SCATS : 20,000 20,000 0 1.200: 5: 0.20 0.02 0.22:

:3: (3) SCAIS to Non-SCATS 0 0 10.000 SO: 0 t 0.00 0.00 0.00, , .............. ~~~~............ ....................... . .... ........ ..... : ....... ...... .... ...... ........:

Sub-7t0"i S : 5 0.20 0.02 0.22:

:C::JUTIGN WAN14LIZATIQN : (1) Slic 9 80,000 per Intersection 4: 0.12 0.00 0.12(2) Coaplex 75.000 per mnt ter,ein : 9 0.28 0.00 0.28(a) Very Clwle* :150,000 Ope Interneetlon t I: 0.IS 0.00 0.18

: ~~~~~~~~t .... I .. ,::........ .......... ... .. ......... .. ........ . ........ ....... ....... ....... 2

9:b-,t'al C : : a 0.0 0.00 0.80:3 : 3........... :tDItNiDU CLOH4 IATIO4 t (1) 8soIc t 200 per lner tr : 0 t 0.00 0.00 0.00:

(:) Ceaples : am80 per Iner etr r t 0.00 0.00 0.00. : . . . ..... :........ .......... ....... ....... ......

Sub-Tetl 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

tE:S1 AND KDSR 2 : (1) Traffi c8 : 0 pe r ar : D: 0.14 0.00 0.14:(2) leU arktinS I #Wm am 15S0 3 0.14 0.00 0.14

: . . . . . ..................... ............................... t ........ ....... ....... ........2 Sub-TOtal E : I :I. 0.00 0.2O8

t t : t : :~~~t

:%PttDl LD8 : (1) Dolitlan%8 1,160 per 0C (o 1:4.8 a4) I 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 t3 t (2) Cwatruetletm4 1 Iwuo am eo Fe 80,87 t ? 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 :

t X ~~~~~~~~~.......................... t................................ t ............ t ....... ...... .... ...... ........

t t Sub-Total p : 0.00 0.00 0.00 3

:OtVA MCIL : (1) . Step WIdening a 140 pa tS t 0 0.1t 0.00 0.10:*a (2)e at"gIlumde I 80 per :l * a8800: 0.10 0.C0 0.10:t (a) Trolle am Wire ft0.wo 000 ka : 1.88t 0.3 0.00 0.20:

t tt.. .......... ............ .. ... ....... . ... ....... .... tI t u-Total C t 0.40 0.0 0.40 s

tT U I A t. ' U Ob U at .aa,

nu,m~6:Lao, eauW monin; ~umoun. men. sos jneumep e Va;no ~.mu,ruj urcIla r se.e,uw e; .0 ore

-68- ANIEX 2Page 16

PI,:Q9AAS1Tin. t:10 10-0#-6%g 1SI

NBCDCr MMM W 05W 04ML

I~~~~~NSC WtU ttARel SQll

I

tILea Feel TA6rtt MW~4 (11) .%): (tl) tb.0): M M............................ ),to .*) i Z)

: Ocotit 0.00 O.OD 0,00 I 011 0.410 I on 0.00 I OIS 0,00 as0 0.00 2 400 0.00: I a 0.00:.: Rt_mt0.00 0.00 0.00 Om O.CO I 0.00 I on 0.00 Os 0.00 I ON 0.00: O .

t UtttXtt X ~~~~0.00 0.00 O.CO z X 0.00 I Om 0.00 I 05 0.00: of 0.00 , 05 0.00 Os 0al o.o~s:............ . ............. . ., ..... ..:... . .. .: : ,X Sub-Tei (1) :L0.00 O.CO 0.00 I a 0.00: OJ 0.00 OS) 0.00 *I) 0.00 t (ox 0.00: OX O.CO:

:2. C2i2 I Work::s:*:n ..... . .. ........ : o.oo t0.00 0.00 0.00 as 0.00 00 0.00: Os 0.00 Os 0.00 2 s 0.00: Os 0.00::m BuettSite.. 0.40 0.00 0.40: 00 0.00 0M 0.20 0M 0.0 0 OS 0.00: as 0.00: O 0.00*

0.00 0.00 0.0 o05 0.00 0.00: t 6S 0.0 1 OS 0.00: 05 0.00 Os 0.00: ClTottnallsatlen (1)...... : S0.0 0.00 0.00 O S 0.00 so 0.200: WS 0.20: aS 0.00: Os 0.00 : ox 0.00

:. ............. :. , . : : .: t ISub-Tol (2) 01.00 0.00 1.02 ON 0.00 US O.00 :an 0.09 0 4OX 0.00 : g 0.00 O0S 0.00:

Ru. 6t; o :0.40 0.0 0.402 OS 0.00: a 0.1 S 0.20 01 0.00: 0 0.00: O 0.00:

I slt.. 0.87 0.00 0.217: 0 0.00 s01 0.14 SO 0.18: OSl 0.00 O 0S 0.00 ox 0.00: ............. 0.0 ...... 00 0.0...0.: SOS.0.25: 0.28 : OS,.00: 0. .00 : .... 00:

6ub-rTotl (2) 1.u6 0.002S9 00 0.009: 0.40 so 0.00 OS 0.00 O .00 0 .: 0.00 I

:6. Sue mm :g ' I - ' on

:AdSinPt,n a.: 0.86 0.25 0.62: O0 .00: 80 4= 0.81 480 0.01: OS 0.00 a OS 0.00 a Os 0.00Pi "A1 En. 2.8i: 0.6 0.00 0.0 : O0S 0.00 40 0.02 s 201 0.01: OS 0.00 : OS O.O: OS 0.00:C -t ta. (8. *t: 0.01 0.25 0.01 t 0 0.00: anS 0.01 I an 0.01: OS 0.00: I0 0.00: OS 0.00:

t.............. ........ t ........... t . I .. : : t , .:t Sb -To2.66 0.00 0.00 0.10 : 400 0.0W 400 0.00: 20 0.03 : as 0.00 0 OS 0.00 I S 0.00:

t pCU.t. QI* 0.86 : 0.01 0.00 0.01 : IO 0.00: 800 0.01 t 40 0.11 s OS. 2 oS 0.00 OS 0.00:i Pric*a Cantinalso 0.42 0.02 0.48 s (1 0.00 8A 0.11 I1on 0.1o OS 0.c: t oS 0.00: OS 0.00 tTetel CeeOs : 2.66 0.80 2.97 : 5 0.00: 460 1.41 t W1 1.82: OS 0.O:W 0 0.00 : 0a 0.00 2

-69- 3Page 1

STAFF _PPRAMSUL REMMRT

SHASA EROLITA tRSP POCT

Technical As$Ietenve Summar

Beneficllry Procurement Et. stf Est. costitem beedription gency aency month. ( 'O"0)

Cl. Zhongehln IRR construction supor-vislon and project mensegemnt support IRRCC SITC 06 1,068.1

Ct. Traffic management support 1ID SITC 80 478.9

Ca. City Comprehenslve Transport PlanningInstitute SCC1PI SITC 80 478.9

C4. Identification of urban transportInvestmnt priorities sCCIPI SITC 60 967.9

CS. Preliminary feesibilty studies preparation SCC1PI SIT5 so 711.6

CO. Transit Company support SCC1PI/STC SKTC s0 470.9

CT. Inst. deelopment equipments(e) road maintenance monitoring equlpment SED SITC n.e. 212.6

lb) project managemet cmputing eqipmnt 1RCC SMTC n.e. 60.0transportation analysie coaputlng equip. SCCIPI SSTC n.e. 8 0.4

d) traffic safety monitorlng computing equip. TOD SMTC n.a. 28.0

Touts 206 4.2.4

Notos MRRCC Inner-Ring Road Construction CompanySCCTPI Shanhai City Comprohensive Transport Planning InstltuteSCPDI Shanhui C4mprhn_ ve Planning and Design InstituteSETC Shnhai Interntional Tonderlng CompanySMEAD Shanghai Municipal Englneerlng Adeinistration DepartmentSMYC ShanhaI Municipal Tenderlng CompanySPS Shangha Public Securlty BureauSTC Shangha Transit CompanyTMD TraffIc Manaqe t Olvision (of SPSS)n.G. not appicable

_70_ ANNEX 3Page 2

CBINA

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT

Technical Assistance

Cl. ZHONGSHAN INNER-RING ROAD

CONSTRUCTION, SUPERVISION, AND PROJECT HANAGESEN? SUPPORT

Terms of Reference

1. The Municipality of Shanghai, throt.gh its Construction Commission,is about to commence Implementation of a World Bank-assisted project toimprove transport in the city through investment in arterial road improvementsand traffic management and safety measures, as well as through an extensive,related resettlement program, together with various institutional developmentmeasures and investment studies. The project will be carried out under thedirection of a leading group drawn from the participating coumissions andagencies, and will be assisted by a project implementation unit (PLU), whichwill coordinate the activities of the various project implementation teamsinvolved in carrying out the physical components and technical assistancecomponents. Consultant assistance will be required in two areas: supervisionof construction for the Zhongshan Inner-Ring Road and overall project manage-ment by the PO.

Part Is ZBONGSAMN INNER-RING ROAD

General

2. The Shanghai Construction Commission will Implement an improvementproject for the Northern Zhongshan Road beginning about 1.5 km north ofChangning Road and ending just south of Hutai road, a distance of about5.2 km. The improvement works would include a 5.2-km, 4-lane viaduct with twoexit and two entrance ramps and widening and reconstruction of Zhongshan Roadover the same length. The surface improvements would provide four motor vehi-cle lanes with separated bicycle and pedestrians lanes, but would not includereconstruction of intersections between Zhongshan Road and crossroads, whichwill be carried out in a subsequent phase. The project will be accomplishedwith two contracts for initial surface road works and two contracts for theviaduct, ramps, and remaining surface road work. Construction is expected tobe completed in a period of 24 months. Prior contracts awarded for buildingdemolition and utility relocations would not be included in the consultantservices described below.

3. The supervision organization will be the Shanghai Municipal Engi-neering Supervision Company (SMESC), which will report to the Inner-Ring RoadConstruction Company (IRRCC), the agency responsible for project construction.(See Chart 2.)

-71- 3Page 3

4. These consultant services are for foreign experts to train andadvise SNESC on supervision methods and techniques used by internationalorganizations. The actual performance and responsibility of the constructionsupervision will be with the SMESC staff, who report to IRROC. About 46months of Individual assistance will be needed.

Ob3ective

5. The objective of these consultant services is to train and advisethe local staff in the proper methods and procedures to ensure that all thecivil works are carried out in full compliance with the engineering designsand technical specifications and in accordance with the international condi-tions of the construction contracts.

Definitions

6. In these terms of reference, the following terms are defined forthis assignment:

(a) Contractors The construction firm with which IRRCC has a civilworks contract for this project.

(b) Contract: The contract agreed between the parties mentioned in (a)above.

(c) Works: The works to be executed in accordance with the contract.

(d) Engineers The Chief Supervision Engineer of SMKSC.

(e) Resident Engineer: The 5np,gneer appointed by the Chief SupervisionEngineer to represent him at the construction site and in all mat-ters pertaining to the contract therein.

(f) Employers The IRRCC.

Scope of Work

7. The consultants are to train and advise the SMESC on matters relat-ing to supervising the contractor's work, including the approval of materialsbrought to the site, workmanship, and proper measurement and record- keeping.Areas to be covered in the formal training program conducted before the effec-tiveness of the first civil works contract will cover such items as the fol-lowing:

(a) organization and administration of supervision teams;

(b) materials testing for compliance with technical specifications;

(c) quality control relating to contractor personnel's workmanship;

(d) methods, timing, recording, and reporting of quantity measurements,

-72- ANNEX 3Page 4

(e) preparation of systems and procedures for recording the contractprogress, quality control testing, project costing, variations dueto change orders and force majeure, monthly certificates, etc.;

(f) legal aspect of contract Implementation and supervision;

(g) auditing procedures for reviewing contractors' account, invoices,and claims for compliance with the contract conditions;

(h) labor relations and safety measures to be applied to the contractsite; and

(i) other areas necessary for supervising civil works contracts.

8. There should be at least two consultants, with substantial experi-ence in construction to conduct this training course for Chinese supervisionpersonnel. Materials for the course will be made available to SMESC, inEnglish, at least six weeks before the start of the course so that it can betranslated into Chinese. These materials should be in such a form as tocomprise a construction manual when consolidated. (See para. 11).

9. During the course of construction, about 24 months, the consultantswill provide advisory services to the supervision team (SMESC). The advisoryservices will cover all aspects of the construction process as covered inpara. 7 above. The consultant team will consist of the specialists agreedwith the owner. The specialists will be assigned to coincide with theappropriate work activities, i.e., the paving specialist will be assigned whenpaving operations are in progress, etc. Although the consultants will nothave direct supervision responsibilities, they will be expected to provide the.necessary on-the-job training to SM$,*J and both formal and informal trainingto the supervision team during the course of the construction as necessary forthem to perform their function at the level of international standards for theareas covered in pars. 7 above.

10. If requested, the team leader will assist and advise in the evalua-tion of contractor bids, along with IRRCC and SMESC personnel, and will pro-vide any training in bid evaluation that may be warranted.

Reporting

11. Inception Report. Within four weeks of signing the contract, theconsultants will be expected to furnish SMESC a plan for the initial trainingprogram. 11

l1 A construction supervision manual has been prepared, in both English andChinese, for use on another highway construction project in China. Theconsultant, along with SMESC, will review this manual and suggest anychanges or additions which may be appropriate to adapt the manual for usein the training program and during construction and considering thefuture use of the manual on other civil works construction projects inShanghai.

-73- ANNEX 3Page 5

12. Training Materials. At least six weeks before the start of thetraining course, the consultant will make the necessary training materialsavailable to SHESC for translation).

13. Monthly Reports. The consultant, together with SESC. will provideIRRCC brief monthly letter reports stating major accomplishments, difficul-ties, unresolved problems, recommendations, and plans for future activities.including training plans.

Support 8MECC Is to provide the Consultant

14. Adequate air-conditionedlheated space will be provided for thetraining courses. The facilities will be equipped with furniture, audiovisualequipment, blackboards, etc. that are required to carry out such courses andconducive to the learning process. Particularly, audio equipment will beprovided as necessary for the translation required during the training sea-sions.

15. Translation services from English to Chinese will be prcvided bySMECC for both the written materials and for the training course.

16. On the construction site, the contractor will be required to provideoffice *nd working space for both the consultant and SMESC personnel.

17. IRRCC will provide at least two vehicles on the site for the exclu-sive use of consultants for perfonuing their duties.

Part Ils PROJECT MANAGEMENT SUPPORT

A. General

18. In addition to assistance in construction supervision, suitablyqualified eonsultants will be required to advise and train the PIW in design-ing and establishing processes and means to coordinate and monitor the projectimplementation. The duration of the assignment is expected to be about 17months and would entail about 20 months of individual assistance.

B. Scope of Services

19. The scope of the advisory services and assistance is as follows%

(a) to establish and carry out training for a micro-computer-based man-agement information system (including standard reporting formats) torecord and monitor progress with (i) planning and engineering, pro-curement, construction; (ii) project budgets, expenditures, andcredit disbursement; and (iii) key monitoring indicators;

(b) to assist and train staff in developing procurement systems consis-tent with Bank procurement guidelines, including bidding proceduresand bid evaluation for goods, physical works, and technical assis-tancel and

-74- ANNEX 3Page 6

(c) to establish and train PIU staff in a project-reporting system,including format and content for a quarterly report in English forsubmission to the World Bank, which would include plans and progressof key activities (planning, procurement, physical construction,technical assistance, and disbureement), monitoring indicators(including resettlement), and a sunmmary of major issues and proposedsolutions and responsibilities.

4. The advisers are to be experienced in managing and monitoring majorconstruction and institutional development projects with particular referenceto metropolitan transportation and World Bank procedures. Experience in (i)establishing and operating microcomputer workstations and a comon data base,word processing, and spreadsheet analysis software, and (Ui) training class-room and on-the-job methods) is essential. Fluency in Mandarin, as well asEnglish, will be an advantage. Offices, equipment, and computer workstationswill be provided by the PIU.

-75- ANNEX 3Page 7

CHINA

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAN TRAZSPORT PROJECT

C2. TRAFFIC MANGEMENT CONSULTANT ADVISORY SERVICES

Outline Terms of Reference

Objectives

1. Consultant advisory services are required to assist the Shanghaiauthorities in the implementation of the Traffic Management Component of theShanghai Metropolitan Transport Project and in the establishment of TrafficManagement Guidelines for application in the Shanghai Metropolitan Region.The Traffic Management Gomponent comprises the following programs;

(a) a Nonmotor Vehicle (NWM) action program;

(b) a Central Business District (CBD) action program; and

(c) a North-South Corridor (NSC) action program.

Scope of Services

2. Part As Implementation. The Traffic Management Component (andancillary NMW, CBD, and NSC action programs) comprises various intersectionand midblock channelization projects, as well as installation or conversion oftraffic signals at many locations. Tlite consultant will assist the Shanghaiauthorities in the followings

(a) the establishment of a detailed implementation schedule for civilworks and procurement of equipment;

(b) detailed design and supervision;

(c) the establishment of criteria and key indicators for the monitoringof the performance of the respective and localized traffic engineer-ing and control measures; and

(d) monitoring progress in implementation and subsequent performance(including the costleffectiveness).

3. Part B: Design Guidelines. The SCTPT "Design Manual" would beexpanded to include more detail in typical design situations that reflect avariety of conditions which can be encountered in Shanghai's traffic network.The guidelines would be prepared to enable local engineers more effectively todesign and monitor traffic engineering and control measures, which respond tothe current and future traffic conditions specific to Shanghai. The DesignGuidelines would comprise, inter alia, the followings

-76- ANNEX 3Page a

(a) the procedures and techniques to be adopted in the functional analy-sis of the performance of Intersections, street segments (betweenintersections), corridors and other special circumstances;

(b) clarifi.cation and definition of detailed design objectives andrequirements applicable to traffic management policies and proce-duress and

(c) preparation of detailed functional design concepts for the typicalelements which comprise Shanghai s traffic network.

Time Schedule and Reportng

4. The Consultant Advisory Services are expected to require 30 staff-months of a qualified traffic engineer familiar with Shanghai traffic condi-tions. The services are expected to be carried out between 1992 and 1995.

5. Concise annual reports will be submitted to SCPDI summarizing progress onParts A and B above.

-77- AYM 3Page 9

CHINA

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAN TUANSPORT PROJECT

C3. METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT INSTITUTE

Outline Tems of Reference

Oblectives

1. Responsibilties for urban transport planning and management inShanghai are currelutAy fragmented and transportatLon planing Ls carried outby an ad hoc team--Shanghai Comprehensive Transportation PlannLng Team(SCTPT)--with staff seconded from interested agencLes. In order to improvesector effLcLency and to establish a permanent transportation planning capa-bility, Shanghai Municipal Government (8MG) is considerLng the establishmentof a Shanghai MetropolLtan Transport Institute (SMTI), under the directauthorLty of Shanghai Municipal Construction Comuission (SMCC). SMCC wishesto appoint consultants to assist it to carry out a feasibilLty study of theproposed Transport Institute.

Scope of Work

2. The role of SMTI would be to direct and coordinate urban transportplanning and management within Shanghai Municipality (interurban and Lnter-national transport would not be the direct responsibility of SMTI) and itsresponsibilit.es would include the following:

(a) preparation of a Comprehen.ive TransportatLon Plan, including bothshort- and long-term propoials. together with phased and costedimplementation schedules;

(b) technical directLon and coordination of urban transport plannlng byother municipal agencies;

(c) execution of feasibility studies of proposed major transport proj-ects;

(d) establishment of an urban transport data base, to be used by allrelevant agencLes, linked to SEIC and Statistical Bureau data basest

(e) assembly and dissemination of relevant technical information tolnterested organizations in Shanghai, and possibly elsewhere inChina; and

(f) organization and coordination of research and development related toShanghaL urban transport.

3. SMTI would be developed into an executive municipal agency, startingfrom the existing SCTPT organizatLon and staffing, and would employ its ownstaff, with the exception of representatlves seconded from the Public SecurityBur&ou.

-78- ANNEX 3Page 10

4. A high-level advisory board would be established, comprisLng seniorexperts from SMG and outside bodies (e.g., universities) to provide technicalguidance to SNTI executive management.

5. The consultants will assist SHCC too

(a) specify activities to be carried out by S14TI and to define SCOTI'srole and responsibilities within the Shanghai Municipal Government;

(b) propose an organizational structure and specify the responsibilitiesof each department/section;

(c) determine Uw-.an resource requirements (by level of experience andprofessionalltechnical qualifications), and suggest recruitment andtraining policies;

(d) determine material resource requirements (e.g., computers, vehicles,etc.);

(e) prepare a detailed plan and timetable for the transfer of respon-sibilities to SMTI from existing agenciess

(f) prepare Indicative anrnual operating budgets for the transfer periodand for the first full year of SKTI operations; and

(g) describe the anticipated net benefits and costs of the recommendedSMTI arrangements.

Time Schedule and Reporting

6. The Consultant Advisory Services are expected to require 30 staff-months of high-level managers, with personal experience in running a largegovernmental or mnwicipal transport department. The inputs may be providedduring several missions, to be carried out over an 18- to 24-month period. Atleast one consultant must be fluent in Chinese.

7. Concise progress reports will be submitted to SMCC and the VorldBank on completion of each mission to Shanghai. A draft final report will besubmitted to SMCC on or before the end of month 12 and, following receipt ofwritten comments from SMCC, the consultant will prepare and submit a finalreport to 8NCC within one month. All reports will be submitted in English andChinese.

-79- A.X 3Page 11

CHINA

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT

C4. IDENTIFICATION OF URBAN TRANSPORT INVESTMENT PRIORITIES

Outline Terms of Reference

OW ectives

1. The Shanghai City Comprehensive Transport Planning Institute(SCCTPI) wishes to appoLnt consultants to assist with their ongoing work pro-gram to identify transport investment options for the period 1990-95 and 1995-2000 (within realistic budget envelopes and consistent with agreed developmentscenarios), to assist the team in establishLag transport investment prioritiesand in developing an affordable and cost-effective transport plan.

Scope of Work

2. The consultants will work with other team members to undertake ana-lyses at three levelss

(a) spatial development strategy and major lnfrastructure;

(b) investment programming; and

(c) area studies.

3. In order to prepare a reconmended transport strategy, the consul-tants will assist the term to:

(a) define realistic estimatee of transport sector resource availabil-ity, from both public and private sectors;

(b) conflnm major spatLal options for urban infrastructure (taking intoaccount transport, water supply, sewerage, electricity, public hous-ing) within the framework of development scenarios prepared bySCCTPI; and

(c) test transport investment and policy options. in conjunction withthe development scenarios, using the SCCTPI computer model.

4. The consultants will then assist the team tot

(a) establish transport infrastructure investment priorities; and

(b) prepare affordable five-year infrastructure investment and policyprograms for 1990-95 and 1995-2000.

5. Within the time and resources avaLlable, the consultant will assistthe team with one or more detailed area studies to develop coherent and viable

-80- fNEX 3Page 12

traffic plans for key areas (e.g., Second RLng RoadlZhongehan Roads Ninguol/enJiang River Crossings; Hongkou area; North-South Corridorl etc.).

Time Schedule and Reporting

6. Particular attention will be given to cost-effective ways to developseoregated networks for public transport (rail and bus) and for nonmotor vehi-cles, and to the future coordination of metro with other transport modes.

7. The Consultant Advisory Services are expected to require 60 otaff-months of qualified transport planners, urban planners, and economists over aperiod of two years.

ANNEX 3Page 13

CHIMA

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT

CS. PREPARATION OF PRELIMINARY FEASIBILITY STUDIES

Outline Terms of Reference

Ob3ectives

1. Shanghai Municipal Construction Commission (SMCC) wishes to appointa consultant to assist nominated design institutes to carry out prefeasibllityand feasibility studies of priority transport infrastructure schemes identi-fied by the Shanghai Comprehensive Transportation Planning Team (SCTPT) andShanghai City Planning and Design Institute (SCPDI).

Scope of Work

2. The consultant will work vith one or more design teams nominated by8NCC on preparation of high priority transport projects (e.g., Second RingRoadlZhongshan Road: Ninguo/Nen Jiang River Crossings, North-South Corridor,etc.) and will provide assistance withs

(a) traffic demand forecasting

(b) identification and analysis of design and management options

(c) matching design standards to projected traffic demands

(d) economic, operational. and environmental evaluation procedures

(e) prioritization and preparation of phasingistaging plans

3. The consultant will assist the design institutes to specify andinterpret SCTPT model runs and, if appropriate, to specify and carry out al-ternative or complementary transport demand analyses.

4. A reasonable range of design alternatives must be identified andevaluated for each scheme (e.g., alignments, standards, intersection configu-rations, ttaffic management, etc.). The consultant will assist the designinstitutes to perform these tasks and to match proposed design standards toanticip4ted traffic demands.

5. A major objective is to systematize the use of economic and otherevaluatton techniques to appraise alternative schemes and to optimize individ-ual scheme designs. The consultant will assist the design institutes toestablish suitable standard parameters and methodologies for this purpose.

-82- ANNEX 3Page 14

Time Schedule and RePorting

6. The Consultant Advisory Services are expected to require 50 staff-months of a qualified urban planner, transport planner(s)/economist(s) over atwo-year period.

7. Concise progress reports (in English only) will be submitted to theclient and the World Bank on completion of each mission.

-83- ANNEX 3Page 15

CHINA

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAR TRANSPORT PROJECT

C6. SHANGIAI TRANSIT COMPANY SUPPORT

Outline Terms of Reference

Ob1ective

1. To identify and prepare a program of priority investment and manage-ment improvements to improve public bus transportation services and finances.

Scope of Work

2. For bus transit, the consultant will work within a team tot

(a) prepare a schedule of bus fleet requirements for 1990-95 and1995-2000 and to set out a bus rehabilitation and procurement pro-gram;

(b) assess the need for improvements and/or additions to existing busdepots, workshops, and terminal facilities, and prepare proposalsfor recommended investments, taking into account proposals for routerationalization, integration of metro and bus services, and evolu-tion of the bus fleet;

(c) identify measures to increase bus efficiency and productivity.

Part IIIs AGENCIES

3. Work under these TOR will be carried out under the technical leader-ship of SCTGPT (subsequently STI). The team will work closely with stafffrom Shanghai City Planning and Design Instituted (SCPDI), Shanghai MunicipalEngineering Administration Department (SMEAD), Shanghai Transit (STG),Shanghai Metro Corporation (SMC), Shanghai Public Security Bureau (SPSB), andother agencies as required.

Part IVs SCHEDULE

4. Technical assistance vill be provided over a two-year period, tobegin as soon as possible.

Part Vt RESOURCES

S. An estimated 30 staff-months of international consultant input willbe required.

-84- ANNEX 4Page 1

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

CHINA

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT

Walor Road Investments

Zhongshan Inner-Rirj Road

Objectives

1. The objective of this project component is to reduce traffic conges-tion and improve safety on the most heavily traveled portion of Zhongshan Roadwhich, when eventually Improved throughout, will comprise the inner-ring roadof a comprehensive transportation plan for Shanghai.

Background and Description

2. The western sections of Zhongshan Road (see Map IBRD 22042)presently carry high volumes of traffic movlng between the large industrialand port facilities north of the central city and the hinterlands to the westand south. Traffic volumes on some sections are already near the road'scapacity during peak hours, and serious congestion and delays occur at allintersections with arterial cross-streets.

3. A prefeasibility study for improving the most heavily traveled 19-km sectlon of the inner-ring road wan carried out by the Shanghai Municipalingineering Design Institute (SMEDI). The study recomended that first prior-ity be given to improvement of about 10.7 km between Guangzhong Road on thenorth and Changning Road to the south and proposed an elevated, limited accessviaduct over the road together with surface road widening and improvements atintersections. In November 1988, a detailed feasibility study of the 10.7-kmsectlon was begun by a team composed of staff from SMEDI, the Shanghai Munici-pal Engineering and Construction Company (8MECC), and the Shanghai Urban Con-struction Design Institute (SUCDI), with assistance from a French consultingfirm, BCEOM. Various alternative improvement schemes and stage constructionpossibilities were investigated. The report. completed in March 1989, recom-mended construction of a four-lane elevated viaduct about 5.2 km in lengthbetween just south of Jin Sha Jiang Road and HutaL Road, with "diamond" typeaccess and exit ramps at four locations, including the eastern terminal.Further study resulted in reducing the number of ramps to four at Wuning Road(two access and two exit) with the viaduct descending to surface level at bothterminals. Surface lmprovements on Zhongshan Road would provide four motorvehicle lanes, two 4-m segregated bicycle paths and two 3-m pedestrian walk-ways. In addition, added turning lanes, channelization, and traffic signalswould be provided at all five main crossroad intersections spanned by theviaduct as well as at one intersection to the south of the structure and threeto the north. Improvements on Zhongshan Road would extend over a total lengthof 10.7 km.

-85- p 4

4. The agreed improvements would be divided into two parts for execu-tion. Part I would consise of the viaduct, the access and exit ramps atVuning Road and surface road widening and reconstruction under the viaductonly between intersections. Part II would consist of (a) widening ZhongshanRoad for about 1.5 km from the end of the viaduct south to and including theintersection of Jin Shan Jiang Road and including the widening of the existingbridge carrying Zhongshan Road over the Wusong River (Suzhou Creek); and(b) channelizing and signalizing all nine principal intersections affected bythe project (para. 3) together with limited improvements on the cross streets.

Cost Estimates

5. The estimated cost prices of the proposed Part I improvements isY 556.15 million ($106.54 million) including demolition, resettlement, engi-neerint.. and administration and allowances for physical and price contingen-cies. This estimate is based on quantities taken from nearly completeddetailed engineering to which have been applied standard unit prices issued bySMG. The estimated cost of the surface improvements under Part TI isY 132.53 million ($25.4 million), which also includes demolit im, resettlementengineering and administration, and allowance for physical and price contin-gencies. The estimate was derived from detailed estimates prepared for simi-lar improvements proposed under the traffic management component of the proj-ect (Annex 2). Details of the appraisal cost estimates are given in Annex 6.

Detailed Engineering and Tender Documents

6. SMECC is responsible for the detailed engineering and preparation oftender documents for the viaduct, ramps, and related surface improvements(Part I), all of which will be completed in mid-1991. SMEDI and SUCDI areassisting in preparing the detailed engineering and plans and the ShanghaiInternational Tendering Company (SITU) and the Shanghai Hunicipal EngineeringTendering and Consulting Company (SHETCC) are helping, respectively, to pre-pare bid documents for ICB and LCB as well as to prequalify contractors andevaluate tenders. Assistance in both detailed engineering and document prepa-ration was provided by the French consulting firm, BCEOM. The design stan-dards and procedures used, including consideration of seismic activities inthe area, are appropriate.

7. SMECC is also responsible for preparing designs and tender documentsfor the surface improvements under Part II. SMEDI, SUCDI, and the PublicSecurity Bureau are assisting in the design work. SMETCC will assist in pre-paring tender documents, prequalifying contractors, and evaluating tenders.

INmlementation

S. Construction under Parts I and 1I will be carried out by a combina-tion of ICB, LCB, and force account. The demolition of buildings required forsurface road widening is being done on a force account basis by the districtsInvolved, in accordance with Shanghai Municipal Government regulations. Sincethe regulations also require that relocation of utilities be done by therelated utility enterprises, this work is under way via force account agree-ments signed by S8ECC. Construction of new housing and factories for thosedisplaced by demolLtion is being carried out under contracts awarded after

-86- ANNEX 4Page 3

LCB. Details of the resettlement program for the project are given in Annex5.

9. Under Part I, initial construction work will consist of building newpavements (temporaty roads) along the outer edges of the widened surface road-way to provide for maintenance of traffic during subsequent viaduct substruc-ture work. This construction will be done under two unit-priced contractsawarded to prequalified contractors through LCB. Two unit-priced contractsfor viaduct and ramp construction, including completion of all remaining sur-face road work will be awarded through ICB to prequalified contractors. Con-tractors would be prequalified for one or both contracts, and the latter situ-ation would be allowed to bid for individual contracts or both combined.Viaduct and surface road lighting and signs would be installed on a forceaccount basis by the utility company and the Shanghai Traffic Safety Bureau,respectively.

10. Designs, plans, and tender documents for Part I construction will becompleted in mid-1991 with the first construction work starting in about thethird quarter of that year. All civil works, including lighting and signing,are scheduled for completion in mid-1994. This is a complez project, whichwill require close attention to work coordination and execution to avoiddelays. Close supervision by the responsible municipal agency the Inner-RingRoad Construction Company (IRRCC) is essential. Well-timed Bank supervisionvisits, particularly in the early months of implementation, would be of con-siderable assistance in ensuring timely completion.

11. For Part II, initial construction would consist of widening andimproving the 1.5 km of Zhongshan Road south of the viaduct. Two contractsfor this work would be awarded to prequalified contractors aftet LCB. Cross-road intersection channelization and improvement works vould also be carriedout by contract after LCB. Designs, plans, and bid documents for the 1.5 kmimprovement works will be completed by mid-1992 with construction work begin-ning in the third quarter of that year and completed by the end of 1999. Thestudies for crossroad intersections would be completed by late 1992 with con-struction and installation of signs, signals, and marking extending through1994.

12. Supervision of all Part I and II construction will be done by theShanghai Municipal Engineering Supervision Company (SMESC) reporting toZIRRCC, the responsible agency. SMESC provides field supervision for practi-cally all civil works in Shanghai and has considerable experience and exper-tise in this regard. Mowever, since this is the first road project subjectedto ICB, a nomInal amount of technical assistance by foreign experts is neededto train and advise SMESC staff on supervision organization, methods, andtechniques used by international organizations to ensure that all work undercontracts aCarded after ICB is carried out in compliance with the engineeringdesigns and in accordance wit1. the international conditions of the construc-tion contracts. The experts would also prepare a draft construction supervi-sion manual which could be used in other projects in Shanghai and, eventually,in other areas of China. The terms of reference for the consultant services,estimated to require about 46 man-months, were agreed at negotiations sad areshown in Annex 3.

-87-Page 1

STAPF APPRAISAL REPORT

CHINA

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT

Resettlement and the Environmental Iapact of the Project

A. Resettlement

Background--Ongoing Resettlement Activities in the Municipality

1. The scale of demolition and resettlement in Shanghai is substantial.During the three years 1985-87, somewhere between 50,000 and 60,000 housingunits were demolished, which displaced households at a rate of about 20,000per year. During the three years 1986-88, one municipal entity alone, theShanghai Municipal Engineering Construction Company (SMECC), which is respon-sible for planning and managing the construction of a large proportion ofurban infrastructure projects, and which will be responsible for the ZhongshanRoad improvements, undertook the demolition of approximately 388,000 m? ofresidential, manufacturing, and commercial space. Approximately 202.000 m2 ofthis total was in residential space; 7,683 households (approximately 42,000persons) and 936 enterprises had to be evacuated.

2. The impact of the demolition and resettlement process can besignificant. Demolition results in loss of output from enterprises and socialdislocation. But the demolition and resettlement process provides majoropportunities for attracting higher-rpnt uses to redevelopment areas andaugmenting municipal revenues through the sale or leasing of use rights. Italso provides opportunities to create better-located and more efficientfacilities for enterprises and improved housing and residential environmentsfor relocated households.

The oDlectives of Resettlement

3. The municipality's long-term demolition and resettlement program,within the comprehensive plan for Shanghai, has the following objectivest(a) improvement of housirg, infrastructural, and environmental quality forhouseholds; (b) promotion of economic development tkrough the provision ofurgently-needed new infrastructure and improvemenits to existing infrastruc-turel and (c) more efficient land use.

Policies, Principles, and Standards

4. Housing and new space for enterprises in resettlement areas gener-ally is physically superior to the demolished structures. Thi space standardsused appear to be a pragmatic reflection of what is considered desirable andWhat it takes to ensure that households and enterprises move fairly promptly.

S. Shortages of funds, difficulties in the planning of demolition andresettlement, difficulties in the design of new settlement areas, and diffi-

-88-ANNEX 5Page 2

culties in the management and coordination of new construction result in sub-stantial differences in the quality of the new areas and in the time requiredfor resettlement. Some agen :ies plan and provide new space prior to demoli-tion. In other cases there are delays of three years or more between demoli-tion and resettlement. In October of 1988 SMECC estimated that it had a back-log of approximately 400,000 m2 of permanent residential space for relocatees(representing approximately 6,700 households at a standard of 60 m2 per house-hold). A year later the situation was essentially the same, with approxi-mately 6,200 households for which S1ECC was responsible in temporary housing.

6. Because the proposed transport project involves a significant amountof demolition, IBRD participation provides an opportunity to assist in theestablishment of a more systematic approatch to land acquisition, demolitionand urban resettlement, as an important part of the task of building up muni-cipal planning and management capacity.

The Lesal and Administrative Framework

7. One act and one regulation at the national level, together withthree Shanghai Municipal Administrative regulations, provide the legal basisand administrative instructions relevant for demolition and resettlement.These are the National Real Estate Law of 1987, revised in 1988 (issued by aStanding Committee of the State Council); the National Urban Planning Regula-tlons (lesued by a Standing Comittee of the State Council); Shanghai Munici-pal Regulations for Land Acquisition for Capital Construction Projects(Shanghai Municipal Regulation No. 119, October 20, 1980); Shanghai MunicipalRegulations for the Demolition of Buildings (January 6, 1987); and ShanghaiMunicipal Regulations for the Planning of Urban Construction (June 22, 1989).

Procedures

8. A fairly typical sequence of activities for demolition and resettle-ment associated with a major infrastructure project comprises about 30 majorsteps. The details of this process, using the proposed Zhongshan RoadImprovement Project as an example, are described in the report on resettlementin the project files. Bank participation in resettlement would help to sim-plify this process and shorten the time between demolition and permanentresettlement. (See Chart 3. The Demolition and Resettlement Procesu.)

Institutional ResDonsibilities

9. The entities responsible for each step in the demolition and reset-tlement process are identified in the resettlement report In the projectfiles. The coordination task is formidable. To facilitate on-site construc-tion in the resettlement areas, a coordination unit is set up with representa-tives from SMCC, the utility companies and, if necessary, other agencies. Aslater commente on the quality of new site development will indicate, thisaspect of the resettlement process still has considerable room for improve-ment.

0

-89- AM 3Page 3

Notes Dist. CQCU District Construction Quality Control UnitDist. MECC District Municipal Engineering Construction Co.Dist. Sec. Bur. District Security BureauDist. UCD District Urban Construction DepartmentSMCPD Shanghai Municipal City Planning DepartmentSMCPDI Shanghai Municipal City Planning Design InstituteSICQCU Shanghai Municipal Construction Quality Control

UnitSMCTPT Shanghai Municipal Comprehensive Transport Plan-

ning Team (ad hoc)81M4Ct Shanghai Municipal Engineering Construction Com-

panySME9DI Shanghai Municipal Engineering DesLg InstituteSmB Shanghai Municipal Finance Bureau81M41B Shanghai Municipal Housing and Real Estate BureauSMPB Shanghai Municipal Planning BureauSMtLB Slunghal Municipal Land BureauSMUCD Shanghai Urban Construction DepartmentUltil. Cos. Various Utility Companies (Vater Supply, Gas,

Electricity, etc.)Serv. Bur's Various Service Departments or Bureaus (Health,

3ducation, Mnicipal Gardens, etc.)Others Various Other Development Entities (for exmple,

Shanghai Municipal Residential Quarters Develop-ment Corporation, SMRQDC)

The times required for individual steps in the process which are relativelypredictable are shown In months, in parentheses, for each step. An asterisk(*) in parentheses indicates steps for which the time required variesconsiderably, depending upon the scale and complexity of the project and/orthe potential for delays resulting from slow decision-making or negotiation.

_90- ANNEX 5Page 4

The Particigation of Households and Enterprises to Be Relocated

10. Households participa.te in negotiations concerning their contractsfor resettlement, including the cash compensation to be paid, but they are notconsulted early in the programming process or in the cesign of housing orcommunity facilities in the areas in which they are to be resettled. Fullerand earlier consultation might improve the quality of housing. It also mightlower considerably the costs to households of adapting to the new areas andthe municipality's housing maintenance costs.

11. Manufacturing enterprises are consulted in the design of the facili-ties to which they are to be transferred, and an effort is made to providethem with suitable space and services in locations in which they can functionefficiently. The extent to which retail and service enterprises are consultedis unclear. They are particularly vulnerable to losses resulting from reloca-tion from central city areas to outlying areas.

The Project Components Requiring Resettlement

12. The resettlement resulting from the project is involuntary resettle-ment necessitated by the project's transport objectives. Those objectives areeconomic, social, and environmental, but they are not concerned primarily withthe improvement of the physical facilities available for economic enterprisesor with housing. The scale of the resettlement necessitated by the project,vhich requires the relocation of approximately 3,300 households (about 18,200persons if the average household size is 5.5) and 212 enterprises, makes itsfinancial, economic, social, and environmental impact significant. The reset-tlement associated with the major physical improvements in the project isswnmArized below.

13. Zhongshan Road Improvement. The demolition for the Zhongshan Roadimprovements is primarily for the widening of rights-of-way at ground level,the construction of the viaduct, and the widening and improvement of selectedintersections. Approximately 1,417 households and 120 enterprises will bedisplaced, including 980 households evacuated already from the roadsi(aebetween Langao Road and Railway Road (just to the north of Guangxin Road).Approximately 40,867 mt of gross residential floor space and 30,130 mt offloor space for enterprises will be demolished, together with the utilitysystems serving these facilities. No provision is being made for the reset-tlement of households or manufacturing enterprises in the original site area,but an effort Ls to be made to relocate retail and service enterprises nearby.Dislocated households will be relocated in two sites, Zhen Ruxi (adjacent tothe Zhen Xi pilot project) and Beixinjing, both within about 3 km of ZhongshanRoad. Approximately 980 households have been evacuated already; demolitionfor the improvement of Zhongshan Road began in July 1988.

14. The housing to be demolished is primarily a mixture of low-standardmakeshift structures and substant_.al four- to six-story housing units. House-holds have no vaterbomne sewage, many share communal taps for water supply,and the area is subject to temporary flooding in the rainy season. Many ofthe manufacturing enterprises to be relocated are occupying 20- to 50-year-oldfacilities in poor condition; the newest facility to be affected is about tenyears old. The physical facilities occupied by the retail and service enter-

-91- ANNEX SPage 5

prisee affected are a mixture of substantial and low-standard units. No high-rise structures are to be demolished. Some of the widening is to take placeon land now used for open space, involving no building demolition.

15. Nonmotor Vehicle (NWV) Rights-of-Way. The demolition and resettle-ment associated vith the NHV component of the pro4ect is limited in scale andis primarily for creating or widening bicycle and pedestrian rights-of-wvy.The project will result in 578 households and 22 enterprises being displaced.Approximately 21,964 mW of gross residential floor space and 6,926 ma of floorspace for enterprises will be demolished. No provision is being made for theresettlement of households near the original sites, but an effort will be madeto resettle at least some of the enterprises nearby. Households will beresettled in three locations--Pengpu, Zhen Xi, and Lou Shen (near Jing Dong)--all of which are relatively distant from the original sites.

16. The housing to be demolished is predominantly in old, but substan-tial, two-story and three-story brick and timber structures with old infra-structure typical of the central city. Units have piped water, electricity,and gas, but are without waterborne sewerage, and some have outside kitchens.The physical facilities occupied by the retail and service enterprisesaffected are on the ground floor of structures with mixed residential andcommercial uses. As in the case of the Wusong Bridge approaches, the entre-preneurs in retail and service activities that cannot be located nearby arelikely to suffer economic hardships as a result of their dislocation fromcenitral city locations.

The Environmental Quality of the Affected Areas

17. The environmental quality of the area affected by the Zhongshan Roadimprovements is nondescript, made up largely of roadside development. Thestructures range in quality from sulistantial to very poor, as noted earlier.They do not haœe any particular historic or aesthetic value.

18. The environmental quality of the affected NM1 areas is typical ofthe central city. Here, streets serve a variety of social, as well as trans-port, purposes, but they are heavily trafficked and are used less for non-transport purposes.

The Resettlement Program

19. The Basic Approach. The approach to demolition and resettlement forthe project will build upon the municipality's considerable experience inthese activities. Demolition is being minimized.

20. Demolition will not take place until the resettlement areas havebeen developed and are ready for occupancy. Dislocated households will beprovided with permanent or temporary housing in existing project areas forwhich no new land acquisition is required. The agencies responsible forresettlement (SNECC, $MRQDC, and the three District Municipal Engineering Con-struction Companies responsible for resettlement for the NKV system improve-ments) will utilize these existing areas for the project and later acquireadditional land, which they will transfer to the entities responsible for theareas they utilize, in compensation for the space preempted for the project.

-92- ANNX SPftS 6

21. A4 though the use of temporary housing cannot he avoided entirely, aneffort will be made to minimize it. The two principal factors causing delaysln permanent housing are shortages of funds and an insufficient number ofskilled and experienced project managers. IBRD participation in the financingof demolition and resettlement ls expected to alleviate these problems signi-f icantly.

22. An effort will be made to correct inefficiencies and deficiencies inthe design of resettlement projects of the kinds referred to earlier. To thateffect, ths project includes technical assistance to SMRQDC and $MECC, build-ing on to the experience gained through technical assistance to SMRQDC for theZhen Xi Pilot Project during project preparation.

23. The demolition acd resettlement, which are a necessary part of theproject, provide an lmportant opportunity to demonstrate possibilities forImproved demolition and resettlement practices that could be emulated in themuch larger and more complex program that is onpgoing in the metropolitan area.The innovations proposed may also be useful in other cities in China. Theywill be coordinated with work on land management, site planning, and housingto be supported by the IBID in the Mbledium-Size Cities Project.

24. Relocation Sites. The resettlement sites to be utilized for house-holds and enterprises evacuated from the Zhongshan Road Improvement area andthe 3tV system area are as shovn in Table 5.1. They have been chosen with twoconcerns in mind: (a) proximity to the areas from which households are beingrelocated: and (b) the imuediate availability of.land for the construction ofhousing and community facilities. five of the nine sites are within 4 km ofthe sites occupied originally by the dislocated households. The selectionsrepresent a reasonable compromise between being able to ensure the timelyavailability of land and the desire t;i use sites as close as possible to theoriginal locations.

25. Facilities to Be Provided in the New Locations. Households dis-placed by the project are to be resettled permanently in residential projectswhich incorporate housing, community facilities (including kindergartens,schools, clinics, and comunuity centers)> shops, recreation facilities, andlandicaped open space. Individual housing units will have indoor kitchens andbathrooms, piped water supply, waterborne sewerage, electricity, and gas. Forhouseholds, new space is provided at a standard of 4 to 5 mg per person.Standards are, to some extent, negotiable, as noted earlier.

26. For enterprises, I m2 of new space is to be provided for everysquare .eter of demolished space. Enterprises will be consulted in the designof the new space, as they are in the municipality's ongoing program.

27. A oujstantial number of households would be relocated temporarily atfirst, but eveatually (the end of 1992 is the original target date) all ofthem could be resettled permanently. In the case of Zhongshan Road, SMECCexpects that all of the 1,417 households dislocated will have to be accommo-dated initially in temporary space (980 of them already are).

28. For preliminary costing purposes, the municipality has assumed thatan average of 4.3 mi of resettlement floor space will be provided for each

-93- AM= 5PRge 7

Tjb: R E ~

Residentlul de.iltnin

Copoet ile - i S1 a w D Oetinatlnn 1X. m 110t ibn..a-n AsdI

DOfore 11/89 1,00? 71 06/8

Af90r 11/89 410 20 00/91 762 84 12/91-12/62 Zhosal N. s0 80 06/6A

an 46 t"9-SW9 oxlogJlng so a0 06/91-01/92

E,Den** Rond it

Slofor I1/6 nil nil nil

After II/" 868 100 09/92 o 00 09/o hanl K. W 81 100 09/92

8ab1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4 uim IQ agQX Dobtot.l II 1 ~S

lolore a/89 nIl nil nill

Zen 1 59 860490 89 as 04/90 Pnv 12 48 04/0W

Ze. 2 so 84 Oi/90 W 84 04/0 znsu M. 8 so 04/90

Zmo a 49 80 04/90 49 80 04/90 YanJIanoLgebn a t1 04/90

Subtatel ,5 A5 1A MB s M9

L lot ntorpries oxpect to relocato In wicinity of oriinaol alt.

A P cp.Aed teie.tlem d..tinatlen. Atuel deltinatieno l. to be fird by 08/92.Zone I ent"rpl. will relzte In Waoke4g Sw 9-Jing An; &W Slt h$no 8w-4 u.

C_s~~n.nt 5 T iSrell3 .lroIFycal 9.9.1 poll m.li P1 Tomtl

- dmab, Wn I

sofor. 11/09 9.01 53.89 0.91 62.I8 - - - - 81.6

After 11/W S.04 81.80 1.40 I.SB 6.0o 0.52 1." 96.86 84.8212.48 1.98 1.07 15.45 15.48

Smbteftl ZLL La fIjI &, ZO 12a aM

IL..glogg Read II

Sofore 11/69

After 11/69 8.69 26.48 0.00 80.88 0.99 1.88 0.00 11.82 41.68

Subotl 512143 LQ 5309 0.00 L3II SL10 1 41.6

IDforo 11/6920nm 1 0.14 8.14 0.01 8.80 0.17 0.00 0.48 0.65 3.98

Zem 2 0.18 0.96 0.02 S..s 0.26 0.00 0.32 0.60 8.75

Zano a 0.12 2.61 0.01 2.74 0.24 0.00 0.41 0.6 8.9

Subtotel .am gm 9Li aLU Lm Ii. 1Q 11.0

Tal 1AL 15tL4 84 ULM LULB La ?M 11W5.t7

-94-ANNEX 5Page 8

square meter of space that is demolished. In the case oe SMECC, during theperiod 1986-88, the ratio of new floor area to old floor area was approxi-mately 2.3 to 1. The search for appropriate Innovation will take advantage ofthe experiesce gained through the Zhen Xi Pilot Project (which is one of therelocation sites). However, it should be recognized that the 4.3-to-1 ratioarises partly from the (realistic) expectation that (a) multiple families thathave been crowded into single units in old housing in the demolition areaswill be accommodated in individual units in the resettlement areas, and(b) households being displaced during resettlement must be accommodated.

29. Unit costs for demolition have been estimated on the basis of guide-lines in the Shanghai Municipal Regulations for the Demolition of Euildings(January 6, 1987), which identify the unit costs to be uoed for differenttypes of structure.

30. Cash Compensation. Current practices have been assumed for estinat-ing the cash compensation to be paid to dislocated households. The rates ofcompensation mean that a household of five persons evacuated from a privatehouse of 25 m2, moving when requested, to benefit from the bonus payment, andrelocating in temporary housing found by the household itself for three years,would receive a total cash compensation of Y 5,700. A household moving intoSNECC temporary housing would receive Y 3,500. Details of the cash compensa-tion are available in the resettlement paper in the project files.

31. Institutional Responsibilities. The basic institutional responsi-bilities for demolition and resettlement will be those of the ongoing program.Specific responsibilities for demolition and resettlement for the three rele-vant project components will be as fnllowss

Table 5.2s RESPONSIBILITIES FOR DEMOLITION AND RESETTLEMENT

Demolition Resettlemeat

Zhongshan Road SHECC SHECC

Wusong Bridge Approaches Hong tou District SMRQDCMECC

NMV System Jing An District Jung An DistrictHuanSpu District Huangpu DistrictHong Kou District Hong Kou District

32. The Demolition and Resettlement Schedule. The schedule for demoli-tion and zesettlement, related to project construction, is described in Table5.1. For the NMY area, with the exception of the demolition of the NinghaiVegetable Market, which is scheduled for 1995, permanent resettlement wascompleted by the end of 1990. For Zhongshan Road, permanent resettlementwould be completed by the end of 1992. Given the number of agencies involvedin demolition and resettlement, the complexity of the process, and the poten-

-95- ANNEX 5Page 9

tial for delays resulting from prolonged negotiation, there is some risk ofproject implementation being delayed. However, in case of land acquisition,for example, which Is often a prolonged process, SMECC and the SMRQDC havearranged to resettle dislocated households in existing project areas for whichthe land use rights already have been acquired; they will acquire additionalland use rights later to reimburse the relevant entities for thie preemptedspace.

Resettlement Issues

33. The principal social, economic, and environmental issues associatedwith demolition and resettlement are discussed In the resettlement report inthe project files. They include the followings

(a) Social Issues

(i) the breaking up of social relationships when friends and neigh-bors in the demolition area are relocated in different places;and

(ii) the impact of resettlement on poverty; however, because of therelatively small variance in the urban household income distri-bution in Shanghai, this is loes of an issue than it is in manyother countries.

(b) Economic Issues

Mi) inefficiencies in land use and dhe installation of infrastruc-ture because of present demolition and resettlement practicesand standards;

(ii) the costs of the delays that occur in resettling households andenterprises permanently--and the avoidable losses in output andpersonal income associated with these delays; and

(iii) the additional transport costs for enterprises and householdsin their new locations.

(c) Environmental Issues

Ci) unsatisfactory design and maintenance of public spaces, thelate completion of drainage, pedestrian paths, and landscaping,the practice of leaving construction debris in public spaces,and inadequate building and infrastructure maintenance--all ofwhich result in low environmental quality in resettlement proj-ects, relative to the capital costs of the projects;

Evaluation--The Expected Impact of Resettlement

34. In evaluating the potential impact of demolition and resettlement,the concerns include financial viability, economic justification, socialimpact, environmental impact, and local acceptability.

-96- A-E SPage 10

35. Flnancial Analysis. The financial analysis for demolition andresettlement in the project has been Incorporated in the analysis for theproject, not treated separately. The cash costs involved are substantial(approximately 39 percent of total project costs), expenditures occur primar-ily during the flihet three years of implementation, and their cash flow conse-quences require careful budgeting within the municipality's overall financialplanning. The importance of this is increased by the social desirability ofminimizing the times which dislocated households will have to spend in tempo-rary housing.

36. The cash flow analysis in Annex 9 identifies the amounts requiredfor demolition and resettlement under the schedule that has been agreed upon.The cash flow analysis, in the context of the financial analysis for the proj-ect as whole. indicates that the demolition and resettlement program is finan-acially feasible. As noted earlier, IBRD participation in the financing ofresettlement is expected to make it feasible to reduce the times for whichhouseholds must remain in temporary housing.

37. Economic Analysis. The economic analysis for demolition and reset-tlement is an integral part of the economic analysis for the project as awhole (see Annex 12).

38. The economic costs recognised in the analysis comprise the economicvalues of financial costF, excluding transfer payments and depreciation, plusthe economic values of terminated rents from demolished housing, teminatedvalue added from commercial activities, and teminated revenues from demol-ished infrastructure.

39. Tn principle, the economic benefits would include the economic val-ues of cash revenues, excluding transfer payments, reduced costs for healthservices (if there are savings as a result of improved environmental condi-tions), reduced costs for environmental maintenance (if there are savings),incroments in household incomes and the value added by enterprises as a resultof increased productivity (if any) resulting from more efficient locations,improved facilLtios and services and the peychological boostl of improvedconditions, terminated operation and maintenance costs for demolished housingand enterprises, terminated operation and maintenance costs for demolishedcommunity facilities, and terminated operation and maintenance costs fordemolished infrastructure.

40. In practice, obtaining reliable estimates of all of these values isimpossible. The analysis, therefore, uses imputed quasi-market rents as aproxy for all incremental benefits. This assumes that cost savings for theprovision of infrastructural services such as water supply, as well as allincreases in household and enterprise productivity resulting from resettle-ment, are reflected adequately in the proxy values. It potentially involvessome double counting, since a part of any increase in land use rents is likelyto be attributable to transport improvements in the project, whose benefitsalready are included in estimates of transport operating cost and time sav-Ings. These transport bonefits, annualized, are therefore deducted from theestimated increments in rents. The estimates of increments in land use rentsare a result of an linformed judgment" based on the analysis of land use pro-fitability (annual operating income, minus annual operating cost) for a vari-

-97- ANNEX 5Page 11

ety of land use zones and land uses, which was carried out by the FinancialResearch Institute of the Shanghai Finance Bureau, current information oncompensation being paid for land rights, recent land auctions, and recentsales of rights at administered quesi market prices.

41. Social Benefits and Costs. The principal social benefits of theproposed resettlement that cannot be monetized readily include access toschool and health services superior to those available in or close to theoriginal site; the convenience of access to shopping facilities superior tothoaa in or near the original site; and the convenience of access to recre-ation facilities (cinemas and local park space) potentially superior to thosein the original site area. The potential value of local park space may not berealized because these spaces often are not fully developed, and/or theirmaintenance is inadequate.

42. The principal potential social cost that is difficult to monetize isthe breaking up of social relationships when friends and neighbors are relo-cated in different places and when links with schoolmates, teachers. andfriends near the originul site are lost. This could happen in the project.The relocatees from the Zhongshan Road area are to be resettled in two newlocations, including sites in Beizinjing and Zuenzi N.

43. Although the costs of lor, social relationships can be very high forindividuals, the evidence in Shanghai seems to suggest that the authoritieshave managed to identify leveis of compensation in kind (subsidized housingand facilities) and cash which equal or exceed these losses. Because of thedesire for adequate housing, there frequently is an influx of would-be relo-catees into areas designated for demolition. This is the key factor that hasresulted in the practice of announcing demolition plans as late as possibleand the registering of the original 1!opulations in demolition areas.

44. These social benefits and costs of resettlement e-< noted herebecause they are potentially important, but may or may not be reflected ade-quately in the increments in land use rents used as a proxy for economic bene-fits.

45. Environmental Benefits and Costs. The potential environmental bene-fits of th7e resettlement resulting from the project that cannot readily bemonetized include improved drainage and the elimination of seasonal flooding,improved all-weather footpaths for on-site pedestrian movement, reduced watercontamination as a result of new distribution facilities, improved air qualityas a result of relocation away from high-density inner city areas, andimproved aesthetics as a result of improved building design, site layout. andlandscaping. However, during the next several years, these benefits may bepotential, rather than actual. The drainage and pedestrian walks in reloca-tion sites sometimes are installed long after resettlement and/or their main-tenance is inadequate. The aesthetics of new project areas sometimes are lessattractive than those of the or.ginal demolition areas because of their designand/or inadequate maintenance. They tend to be more barrack-like than theindividualized two-story structures in the in.er city, and the new site lay-outs lack the intimacy and interest of the old areas in which narrow streetsserve as spaces for socializing, as well as movement, and inner courtyardsoffer opportunities for socializing with immediate neighbors, and serve as

-98- AMNEX 5Page 12

safe play spaces. 2nvironmental benefits that presently are potential, ratherthan actual, could be made actual through improved design and maintenance inthe new areas; this should be encouraged. Work on this vas initiated duringproject preparation through the technical assistance provided for the Zhon XiPilot Project and will be continued through the technical assistance to beprovided for project implementation.

46. Environmental costs that cannot readily be monetized are primarilythose resulting from the problems just mentioned. They are avoidable costs.The problems giving rise to them could be rectified by improved technicaltraining, improved management, and adequate budgeting for maintenance.

47. In principle, the environmental benefits and costs described mightbe monetized in site rents, but in the absence of a real estate market, esti-mating their values is difficult. An attempt to do so has been made in theproject economic analysis, as noted earlier. The immediate operational con-cern will be to eliminate avoidable costs.

48. Local Acceptability. There are public-relations benefLts in reset-tlement, which result from the desirability of providing improved housing in ametropolitan area in which the probleme of overcrowding and inadequate infra-structure are especially severe. The efforts of would-be relocatees to moveinto areas designated for demolition suggest that the public-relations costsof resettlement, which often are high in cities elsewhere because the poten-tial relocatees are disadvantaged and vocal, are far outweighed by theimproved housing and cash incentives provided.

49. Equity and the Impact of Resettlement on Poverty. Household incomedata for the municipality are available, but they had not yet been tabulatedby traffic zone at the time of appralsal. In the absence of this information,informal field surveys in the affected areas suggest that the households to berelocated comprise a mix of middle and lower-middle income households that 48typical of many parts of the urban area, together with some low-income house-holds, in a municipal income distribution that has a relatively small vari-ance. A majority of the households to be evacuated from the Zhongshan Roadarea occupy housing of a very low standard. The fact that the benefitedhouseholds comprise a fairly typical mix of income levels, other than higherlevels, is acceptable, given the relocation results from transport priorities,not housing priorities.

B. Other Environmental Impacts of the Project

50. The demolition and resettlement associated with the project areresponsible for a major part of its environmental impact. In addition, thereare likely to be a variety of types of environmental impact typically associ-ated with intracity transport improvements, and potentially important environ-mental implications of future developments in Shanghai's transport can beanticipated as result of the analysis undertaken in preparation for the pro-posed project. These are discussed in the materisl on resettlement in theproject files. The impacts analyzed include traffic noise: visual impact; airpollution; community severance; impact on conservation areas; disruption dueto construction; accidents; urban blight; and development potential. TheIssues are described in greater detail below.

-99- ANNEX 5Page 13

51. Traffic noise levels are likely to increase on Zhongshbu Road as aresult of increased traffic volumes. They are likely to decrease adjacent tothe NHV rights-of.way. The on and off ramps for the Zhongsban Road viaductwill have a negative visual impact on the buildings adjacent to them, but themain viaduct structure is to be in the central part of the right-of-way andshould not be visually disturbing. The visual Impact of the NMV rights-of-wayis likely to be positive in the sense that these improvements will simplifytraffic flows and reduce conflicts and delays. The levels of traffic-generated air pollutants will depend largely on vehicle maintenance and oper-ating efficiency, rather than the nature of rights-of-way provided, but in allcases the project improvements will improve traffic flowe and should reducepollution caused by vehitles that would be operating even further belowoptimal speeds and which are frequently brought to a standstill by congestion,without the improvements.

52. The potentially disruptive social effects of the demolition necessi-tated by the proposed improvement have been discussed in the analysis ofresettlement. As noted earlier, the Zhongshan Road area is of no specialhistoric or aesthetic importance. The NMV development will enhance historic-ally and aesthetically important areas in the central city. The demolitionand construction sequence has been planned to minimize traffic disruption andthe disturbance of adjacent land uses. Traii roads and service roads arebeing provided for the movement of contracting equipment and vehicles. Gradeseparation of heavy traffic on Zhongshan Road, together with improved inter-section design, signs, signals, and traffic policing, is expected to reducetraffic accidents considerably below the levels that would occur without theseimprovements. The NMV system, similarly, with improved channelization. signs,signals, and policing, is expected to mske a major contribution to reducingaccident rates.

53. The improvements generally are likely to increase, rather thandecrease, the values of land use rights in adjacent areas. The only possibleexceptions to this are the buildings and uses in the vicinity of the ramps onZhongehan Road, which may be adversely affected. The outcome would be moni-tored carefully so that exceptions can be converted to less sensitive uses, ifcost-effective. All the imuediate improvements proposed are expected toincrease the development potential of the areas they affect directly.

C. Overall Evaluation

54. Resettlement is a necessary consequence of the project. Opportuni-ties for rectifying deficiencies in current resettlement practices have beenidentified and are to be pursued throughout the project. The financial, eco-nomic, and qualitative analysis described suggest that if these opportunitiesare realised, the overall Impact of resettlement could be very positive. Theresettlement program makes highly beneficial transport improvements possible.It provides an opportunity to Improve housing conditions significantly forapproximately 2,150 households, if multifamily households living in extremelycrowded conditions in the areas to be demolished oan be housed as individualfamilies in the new settlement areas. Approximately half of these households(those to be relocated from Zhongshan Road) are among Shanghai's pooresthouseholds and are presently living in low-standard units with inadequate

.100- ANNEX 5Page 14

infrastructure. The desire for inclusion in resettlement projects suggeststhat benefits outweigh the costs of disrupted social rela:ionships.

55. The qualitative analysis of potential environmental impacts suggeststhat most are positive. Exceptions could be the potentially negative impactsof the on and off ramps for Zhongshan Road.

56. Overall, the potential benefits of resettlement, relative to itscosts, the significance of resettlement in the continuing development ofSnanghai and other major cities in China, and the potential for reducing thesecosts considerably argue for IBRD participation in resettlement in the projectin order to provide leverage for iucreasing the cost-effectiveness of theresettlement process. The benefits of this participation are expected to ex-tend well beyond the improvements achievable in the resettlement associatedvith the project itself.

CHINA

S EANGHAI ME POLITAN TRMSPORT PROJECT

$UM OF PUJC CoSTS (n milt ion)......... ...................... .............. ........................ ............................. .................................................

...................... ,

- Basn castle...- . .. . Contin wncles ------- -- ul91U)b Physical ..-... Price id --** met TJx f1igaLocat Foeign T.tat Ic Loat 1omein total cost le Cost, I If.. . . .. . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . .. .. . . . . . . . . *.. . . . .. . . . ..

* . ......... .A. lbJo arterial ra: 282.32 271.29 553.61 55.36 48.u 2.89 72.52 681.49 7.18 666.68 89.01 4A8

Al. labwnhmn I (VI&An ) 211.20 241.55 42.75 45.28 31.90 20.93 52$. 550.86 5.28 556.15 T1.9M 51.51A2. ibs1ha 11 ISurte top) 71.11 29.74 100."6 10.09 16.73 2.96 19.69 130.63 1.90 132.53 17.12 26.98

D. Traffic atety d w s 34.67 13.66 48.53 4.15 6.02 1.01 7.04 60.42 0.88 6t.30 7.9X 26.51...................... ..................... ...... .... .... .. _..... ......... ......... ......... ......... .. ..... ...... . ... ...... ......... .F

e1. an-Saw Vfeilel Raab 25.43 1."6 36.0 3.61 3.82 0.69 4.51 44.22 0.64 44.85 5.8X 7.7Sa. TON am 6.96 1.90 8.87 0.69 1.76 0.22 1.97 11.72 0.19 11.91 1.51 19.42 I3. NC Ustuwk 2.7 1.29 3.57 0.36 0.4 0.10 0.55 4.48 0.06 4.54 0.6 3.71 0 _

Ildeatat - I* projects A 9& 316.9 1 IS.15 40.14 60.21 54.65 24.91 79.56 741.91 8.07 749.98 96.98 45.11 U a

C. Te"dcal Aaastuw 0.00 22.07 22.0 0.00 0.00 1.88 1.8 23.94 0.00 23.94 3.12 100.5 .... *............... .... .. . . . . . . ...... ...... ...... ...... ..C/C3. Pr"jet Ipl_emtatlin 0.00 7.40 7.40 0.00 0.00 0.78 0.78 8.18 0.6 8.18 1.12 100.08C4. Ut Il nt Priorities 0.00 4.85 4.62 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.37 4.00 0.00 5.06 0.51 100.02 1CS. ft fbiltat St iore 0.00 3.65 3.85 0.40 0.00 0.23 0.23 5.08 0.00 4.00 0.42 100.02£6. marep. lrmpet asatitut. 0.00 2.31 2.31 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.22 2.53 0.00 2.53 0.31 100.02Cr. _ueb fo Trueit Co. stti 0.00 2.31 2.31 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.19 2.50 0.06 2.50 0.32 100.01CB. Bond K§atmena EWpm* 0.00 1.04 1.04 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 1.11 0.00 1.11 0.12 100.08e9. c _ur Iqis for C6. 0.00 0.52 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.55 0.00 1.55 0.11 100.18

Toutl prlect cost 316." 3.U 241.2t 60.21 54.65 6. 81.43 745.05 8.07 M.92 100.0 47.111... ...... ...... ..... O.*.. ........ ...... ......_ _.............. ...... ............ ...... ............ ...... ............ ..... ............ ...... ......... ...... ............ ...... ............ ...... ........ ......... ........... ......... ......F.... ............ .

For explntory notese,se page 2.

Øw

-102-

STAP APPRAISAL REPORT Annex 6CHINA Table 6.1

SEANGAil MlEROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT Page 2

Project Costs

UptSmtory notes On parMeto s and a8suqt IO eW for cost tables............. ........................... _....._ ...... _ _...

la lctlUdirg orbeads total: 4.6,* i.e. oWnistretion I.o0; p wmnt 0Arwry n desigms 2.8k; ard cantrnltfn sw4rviefon 0..

lb OffIlist sxcae rate MIJ a RMI(T) 5.2Z/c Physacat cantingCyt laotance: 1O.0kId Ambt nf tation ratest:

1992 1993 19P 1995 1996 1996houatic: 10.0 6.0k 5.0k S.0k 5.05 .xForefgn: 3.6 3.5 3.45 3.6k 3. 3.2

Inftlation fators:1992 1993 191 199 1996 1996

0oestlc: 1.025 1.14 1.218 1.279 1.363 1.410Forslgn: 1.009 1.055 1.093 1.132 1.173 1.21S

Price Intreae 1/90 through 5/91 estlaoted to bet

Uonetf : 10.3XFareign: 5.5S

/e Taxes Capplfed to local costs only) 2.0kIf Land requisition Inctudes 40.0X Indirect for.

estimated foreign exhn, needws U 69.45 .dt t on

J

414P

tSNbIIO# go P..MqIP "Om" ~ )W SGU z" 33.I )MI@ hO 10O0 0) )Uh)SAY& S Mm 2 U WO ofO9u)Pwi pit s igJeuiq sopZpu oJuq go "UNW1013 eJM0la~ Pow Pom U)rIu.3n Mpn p i~j(1u.wjfb.) ePsa PU, WA361#s 1813SU1P3 OWII@JWSmW S*JM j(13 aglp4iaUl a/WI5IsAJGw~t PU 9UUIJSUIOS "PS4JSA X3SjOJ W.sfAeu.J wuotqim b;ip1luiE qi1-# upw.Jd )IPS~~~~310JOA~M) *0W P1Ju -, M )180q SwuJAO6 ,sd.iow. l"*mo . us ;PuI1 el

o A.

=00 1 9lOt 1 6u tol 64" 1"7 'wi PUBJ

O/Mov 80*0 01tfi 1 091 ' itf ore or. 19O1 In~SW" 92,0 U O AV099 LO90 W M 1W)L IN

Ult 6 Si % U 0010 S - 6 :OO 00.0 Insolo 000 soloore 00.0 ore0 or. WA

$4 --- ..... ..... ..... ..... ........ _...,,,...,..

Mot 60 06U "- o "l a-0 "*0 1O 3j s|s 65, WU ro ore woe pi:0-rns v tUWpWJ.

'U wU 1

6lt Rol on, W 96-£ S-t %-2 on

sf~~~~~~~.. .. 1 . - .... ..... .. ... .... ..... .. ..... .. ....................

%9ffl 605 St. Colo SVS 000 0090 :

X~~~~~~~U" tlg §! x; s t 91,0 . VB. - 0'6Z 1,9*o m;zeooo!S~~~~~~~~-- ..... ... .. , ..... .. ..... .. ... .. ....... .. ..... .. .. I W,S~~2'6 IWif 0fS *U rmf'92W qn sa a

X~~~~~ IISS 15U lIWUiU0 "'2 z t:G IWU t"11 ',....... .. .. .............. ....................

............................................... ..............................................................................

*1 '621Jl 1IA1:l e pJWl .0 WWIt...................... ~~~~~~~~NYl ............................ ,WU ,. .. UIO_ ____...... ,, 3,

I 1 9 *-qi3 OM 9903U XCQVUffTdX9 JZO5

uDpp6.r*w USI432J4WD

X0@ W@0 00.0 0Cr0 orlo O0(i 01 00ro ore or. oo*o or ore0 t.uN.jssy9 jsoswpe

zi5f5 Noe004 S-t9`I6 U 9?S O 90S5WS £''"ZgS6-0C @6 -UIt IA L?0SVS-I 9519 0131Z iSsOWIWO0 %50 6VZ1 alo 9il~ £50 0010 "00 ZZ00 9LZ 91'? SIu 3u8 uSiStiA.Ut DI)2U330Mo ~~we ZP'2 9r94i U20 96f1 w we S00. £90 IZ. ?t'21 21.21 *iu an2 JBUSB4I1S3 IGWI9o wIt UW Wo) if*j 9tt ol oro i 9WO £915 ff05 DAB on )u=M. SDU Po SuPv.. O . .S . .. . . .. .. .. .... .... ... .............. ..

s 0 2Y0 iwe wo Colo 00z Cole wez we W610 90#: W6000u441w u 0.s)

vo-O 0-0 ore 0ore o@o0 ore0 0oe 00 00r0 00-0 ore0 WO- 33 t(3u=3I*I '6)s31Js433 qseWe W2l VO,St drO 5V1t OS*! 00r0 OS*? 60t "lot 00'0 prOt vs uao

o 04 ~XRS1A 165Z W?St £LO WM1 90r51 W9* S9*9 £V'Ot LWI90 WUL WIg 631 IF J41103 3-'PWgAWU? W?'J W6ill Wor 6VOI £5*(t 11@t "'I W01, WM.0 W07 IZ*lE 631 ) 8 =4 3W0@ 3M IA31 we~99 SO 671 cl uzt90 Igoe We or: wee aml Cr9o ml St 3OJ3U**P*19

MOC u7lz 60019 Cr09 1,L9 299t 110 "IS 9lS "'AS 157.2 tl05 vi aWp4830)0 8830141f14I~ ~ ~i X0.f e9o S£*104 6z 90*fp1 10*I WIl 019 "Is £VW £9Wu srzs on131uoWAt 1L-9 1211f WI) 29'99 WI. St". 90't 125 O27.5 15.t 1V6t VA II~lg*J5 U9-15 WORg~ " 69VA0 011t St'? Cr11t WUL 90911 95`V WM10 233 ml11i-aspb JAD

of 4503 P/ 4500 1841ij9j101~401 01iW* m t"iejow100 dOSM O/tijJOd 191 4 - ---- 14d--- 19013413 1(619) Wm Aauyt on) I AJOWv33S .. 1% . 6SI00b14u*3..... 4603o ..... 800d -ad"

(WilliS aN) 1S503 133MO8d 0311V136I (iLlWA) I U*VSNSIO 19V

woii%,d loimstw avirxo.MIoUM nnDWNs

Ins * I *9 ejqvj.O 00 *0zw~ £oWutmdx. ioa

69lo WroO 00S 0010 00fI 0061 we W9&0 or@o 00Ol WvO Orow

sol 200 Or We 9O soro we Ooe Oro or0 wg wor 00o0

t IrO30* ire 00.0 0O'0 00.0 .0010 00r Cole solo '30*0 ore0 WO1 s8=338I,v )wpaq3S

*f....... ... 0.........0. ... .. .. .. 0

269gz 10loot £51Et 0si £90l 49`61 WE U091 r0@i0 wool M-a itL 'oq

o4 200 %S0 we0 we D.4 WOl WCe fit,* Iso we 00.0 VVIO WiOtjAJai 11U)0

1oo VZ IVlt 9010 ttVf 9VS0 000 WGl WC CSz Colo OIL"? S*1J0i.3s 3Suld

Woo f t " BI ti 9*o. r 10 0gi9otso sl OrG0 silt oioiasJ3uhUv

* ~~~~ ~ wo *V9 E9.S WCS ?S59 "1 00re " Wo "It ore0 WVs

I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~.. ... ... ... ...... ... ..................

W 0o WOo 0040 0010 Cole Or0 we 00O Go's OS*@ "or oreo 1(3'uIlft '6)51.30A) SP=

WVA WL6 997L SF0o 1'zI 9S0Z 010o "rz wo WO6 IVO VIS 931 335 iii1i PM sots

WV5 %91vt 694 Ail0 z5oie not WO1 0L1r Win 1191 WV 960fI 931 3315 wjej WIS S3Wf33WIMa-

5 .~ ~.... ..... .... ....... ..... ..... ..... ...........35~

(to)4 K 1 Z3Odeiis SIUOil3V33 IUIhII Z

xzlo ulo 10 P tot 9V19 z3r otd WLadSV 910V WIVJUI IuDkIVR9S:*J IA1

cUINASHA1I4GI NITROPOLITAW TRANSPORT PlROMCT

31. =-MS VEISCLI ROM - OETAIU POJCT =TS1 (O MUilion)...... .......... 9..... .. ...................................................................................................................... .....................................................................

ame. Pre.'.... @t. .-------- Cntinn c08 ----... Tot .... cste y a lte AuW M (6r St"t VIDv U.caI -- me T -- t Tax *gla typ Laes Fweuig Tutt /C Loel Foroitn Total cat /41 COst cs i......... ................................................................. ,........

Led bW1sitin 11.84 8.50 20.33 2.0 1.61 0.54 2. " 26.52 0.29 24.6 5.3% .39.910inlt1un od ettline 11.77 6.46 20.3 2.02 1.61 0.54 21S 26.41 0.29 24.70 55.12 39.91Utilities r.tecatin 0.06 0.06 0.10 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 0.11 0.32 36.1

civit IISu 10.59 1.4 12.06 1.20 1.71 012 1.63 lS18 0.27 1.35 34.22 11.21... . .. . *.a. ... .............. ........... . .... . ... ,. ..... . ......*. ... ....., ...; Traffic steals .J6 0.00 0.96 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.10 1.16 0.02 1.18 2.62 O.1c uwwalifztien 2.69 0.00 2.69 O.27 0.27 0.00 0.27 3.23 0.06 3.29 7.3X 0.02winin lh*s 0.15 0.00 0.75 0.66 0.11 0.00 0.11 0.94 0.02 0.96 2.12 0.02 pg1r1111 6.19 1.46 7.64 0.76 1.23 0.12 1.35 9.75 0.16 9.91 22n.X 1.3 V=

OasE (Iterfals, ftdpm*nt 1.42 0.71 2.13 0.21 0.15 0.03 0.18 2.L 0.03 2.55 5.72 31.72 4 ' ............................ ........... ..... . ..... . ..... . ..... . ..... . ..... . .... ..... . ..... .. .. .. Truffle Simms a sign 1.42 0.71 2.13 0.21 0.15 0.03 0.18 2.S5 0.03 2.55 5.72 31.71 8

INVlnerIng aed Addaistratm 1.59 0.00 1.9 0.16 0.35 0.00 0.35 2.10 0.04 2.14 4.3 0.M r ---.------- ........... ............--.... . .. . .. ... ... ..... ... .. .. . .... ...... .. ..... ... .... ...... .. ..... ... .... .Adilnstration0 0.45 0.45 0.04 0.09 0.o@ 0.09 0.58 0.01 0.59 1.3 0.0 Fiem oniuInew re 0.97 0.97 0.10 0M 0.00 0.23 1.29 0.03 1.31 2.01 0.0% CtmtrVntim ssvision 0.17 0.17 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.64 0.23 0.00 0.23 0.51 0.02 sItAotat 25.43 10.66 36.09 3.61 3.62 0.69 4.51 4.22 0."4 44.65 100.02 27.71 -........ ..... ..... .. ,.... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... F

tentical Aasistanm: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.M..._................... ..... ......... ..... ....... ..... ..... .. .. * ... ..... ....... ..... ....... ..... ..... .. .... .. .... ..

0.00 0.0 0.0J 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.L 0.00.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0. 0.0M

TWAL 25.43 10.66 36.09 3.61 .82 0.69 4.51 4.22 0.64 44.5 100.02 27.7X S 2..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .... . ..... , . 5~-...

° ..................................................................................... ............ . ..........................................

EPor axpl atory 00t6st Se Table 6.1.

*I 9 slq; aess 'UOvQou AaozwsMdxm oao...... .......

iL ~~~..... .. .... .. .... . ..... .. .... .. .... .. ... . . ..... .. ... . .. .... . ...... .. ..WU 10lo 0X91, sF0 OZF91 S 5Z 0 OFZ 91W . 0O*f £o6 W 1

0e0 io 00o0 00-0 0040 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 ......We ir0 00'0 00*0 00.0 00e0 0o@0 . 0 oo o ooo....... .... ... 0,. ..... .... . ..... 0..... .... ... ..... ..... ..... * ................

wre u0s 00.0 0o-ooo oe ino oe o 0o oe o oo o OD 000 00.0 sIIW)SsU )U21uwl

Q ..... ..... ~~~..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... .....* ..... ..... ..... ........i =0 atl oo 50*91 0 T 0*9t ZS'Z Zf*0 OZ*Z *j I ZW OZ*1 SZ waowusXO0 XS'O solo sol 18@0 ZOO 00-0 z0 tie 900 900 U1s 5Iu3um

aSd SD 5 Z, 10*0 ti'o 100 0090 0-0 £0.0 £s£0 £0 slJo OSU19eu*i52 XO20.0 1£ ZZOW0 WO Or bO o~* oo o go o .w o o si o W}J3J3S5UqI:s ~~~~~~........... . .......... ..... . ..... . 0..... ....... ....... ....... ....... ......... ..............................

* 0 290t SCL 10-0 £L*0 £1O 00 @0 £1£0 Solo 50 0000 ssO WIISJ4IUMV pRw 46WI5uO 9 %.O L Zf Ore f0*0 667 £ Ol*O Z9£O 9Z Zt'2 62W l, 511 lld (093) mdl881MaIa sI,f,wJx6las g119* zr et e0 66 O o ZZo O e tre 0t err £ 0 z r 9 S ll Sd (3) OIs/'SIDAIS 31#JlA... .... . ..... . ..... . ..... . ..... . ..... . ..... . ..... . . .... . ..... . ..........................

I' zrsU-lS 5|St wt' ire- ff-l £o 0 e £ 09o0 es.O Sri5 oZ srz :(3umdpf 6)3lJPI)a qm

0O =1 19 t W9" I *0 a't OZ'O 00*0 0FI iO0 60 @@'@ 66s Vd131 lad /S=10 0 wit Es 9609 ttZ § a 9 J21 & 00 a |O*& 05-S so' Or Goe wil ad8 Bu s NSA 0

We ie 1 1 V 9 r W0r ~ r 9q. 11Iire 5t'O 0ore 00G0 000 00-0 0010 00-0 00-0 00@@ Olre 10 VA Vi i l Cl) Ym1 -5n3I 1O

0-0 i. 00 00'0 00-0 00D0 00-0 C0o0 0010 00-0 0010 00-0 fWlatgt9IIv PA"....................................... ;........................;...........................................*...........0.........

0I I 3902 P 3303 piI01 1 / 1301 uS 1j01 0d4 e/ti&M os 1....... so.lid . .....- 1931&44 q/C6/9) 3US Amw on I I AJe6)3X . 001 -........... slalSOuluo ........ ..... S03 mg IISB *- a--d 3'3

.......................... . ............... ......................................................................................................................... *.(wilo GMa) s5393 133fI 031V130- &N3NVN - A13S 31JMVU 'Z'

ja:u . 1*5asivu Umbamm ratIs

%0O

Xo~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 9 srlj oo xnwfeli

S4 z ~~~.... __....... ,,*_*_.... ................................................ ...................S C.PI 0

0 Z .....-- ..... .... - -. .... --. -..-. -.-.... .....14 l xrais Wol Wf ire WU Si Belli we 1

wmIwo01 not irs0 oe sr- g-0 gre 00e0 0re0 ao Ma ore 3 dug .min U I1 A 6P4 zrwl Olt9 tilt Ooe 0' le re0 sae r0e0 "I, "It oge t w fI 'lv~~~~~~~ ... ..... ..... .. &.. ... ..... .- --.. -.....- ..... ..... .... _. .........wooe 2069 o wi 0ore wi 1 e0 804 e oe0 ogl no "I ore oto ywNJ ol'os '000 "-2 WO 0S'? W'0 G0 '0 '0 WO rZ Irt ZD' GEa 4M `03 3 1 100 *0tA 20et %9401. WI 00ore o i o WOe wre ore0 e0-0 it' ore e0A0 OS£ MJ1 38ms *93Iwool %I WV Cole WIt a's a"s ore ole sr sel ole eo s spms Au s q..a=. 5Wootl not OOS WOre ie VO0 Wo 0 O OVr 9t e WIOV o 0r ui t Aw s1Iw *0

I X~~0*00t Xrt 061 05- 0*0 OS-2 "'O `0 '0 "*0 Solo WI£t'Z 000 £'t VAG U *J#l 1f 'P3OOl z1691, SR w r0e0 srt Oe WOe we 0re0 KWI wi W 91 #018 * l'uI 0'3... ............. .+..... ..... .. *.. ... .... .. .. ___. ....... ... _ .... ......... _ ..... ....... ..... ....... .....................10oe wrO on in ogle Woin full IOva 0ore Cole 0oson 0mu ore0 wsmewzvs 1qm,....................... ....................................................__._._._..................... ____.__ .................. __._.........................._..... a..C. .. ~~~~= 05.... W4 . ....

fl....f(6/) AN=w.t

.1 $69 P0 1 3S 1 W3@ 'ieO 691 31 131*1 dIS im1... _ ...... ,,,,b, --.- 6--.mew... ... -., ,,....... ..- ,..................,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.......................................,..

16J'N9 90 hIP Mu) SUM 1h1Ua unVtI - IUIVUWL W UUVIW WINNZIA 1 3

vm'a

-109-

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

CHINA

SANGBAI METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT

Project Management Organization

Shanghai Municipal Leading Groupfor the

City's Major Engineering Projects

Inner Ring Road SCCTPIConstruction (CoordinationCompany - & management of

(PlU) T Te_hnical Aset.

rHEAD SPSB T l

(Sub-PIU 01) (Sub-PIU #2)

Zhonughan MV & NSC CBD Tech. Asest.Road

Parts Al-AS Parto B1,B2 & 54 Parts 83 & 85 Parts C3-C6Part Cl (T/A) Part C7(a) Part C2 (T/A) Part C7 (c)and C7 (b) and C7(d)

Notes Parts A and B of the project refer to (a) Zhongshan Inner-Ring Road(Annex 4), and (b) Traffic Safety and Management components (Annex 2).Part C of the project refers to the technical assistance component (seeAnnex 3).

PIU - Project Implementation UnitSCCTPI - Shanghai City Comprehensive Transport Planning InstituteSMEAD - Shanghai Municipal Engineering Administration DepartmentSPSB/PTD - Shanghai Public Security Bureau/Traffic Management Division

- 110 - ANNSX 8

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

CHINA

SWNGUAI MMOPOLITAI TINSPO PROT3CT

Clvil Works Contract Procurement

ProcurementNo. of Value method

Civil works item contracts tS million) ICB LCB Other

Zhongshan viaduct 2 54.4 2 - -

Zhongshan trail roads 2 4.3 - 2 -

Zhongshan surface improvements 4 12.4 - 4 -

MIV bridges 1 1.9 - 1 -

-111 - ANNEX 9

Page 1

STAF APPRAISAL REPORT

CHINA

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT

1 bursement Schedule, Allocation of Credit Proceeds, and Expenditure Plow

Table 9.1: DISBURSEMENT SCHEDULME

Bank FY (7/1-6/30) FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 PY97 FY96

Annual ($ million) 6.0 3.1 15.0 22.1 9.2 4.6 0.0Cumulative ($ million) 6.0 9.1 24.1 46.2 55.4 60.0 60.0

Project profile (Z) 10.0 15.1 40.1 77.0 92.3 100.0 100.0China profile (1) 3.0 14.5 35.9 62.0 82.1 95.9 100.0

Table 9.2: ALLOCATION OF CREDIT PROCEEDS

Expenditurefinanced from loan proceeds /a

Total cost I of Amount a ofDisbursement category (Y million) cost Y million $ million total

Civil works 406.04 69 281.21 53.87 89.8

Goods (equipment)Foreign CIF costs 4.65 100 4.65 0.89 1.5Local costs 5.22 65 3.40 0.65 1.1

Technical assistanceBilateral assistance 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0.0SMG (loan) 23.94 100 23.94 4.59 7.6/ b

Land (resettlement andutilities) 293.55 0 0.00 0.00 0.0

Administration andengineering 32.44 0 0.00 0.00 0.0

Taxes 8.07 0 0.00 0.00 0.0

Total 773.92 313.20 60.00 100.0

la Including eligible local and foreign currency expenditures.

lb SWG is seeking bilateral grant funds for this components loan funds wouldthen be reallocated to civil works.

cu

S 1AN I ElTOPOLITAN TRMNSPORT PROJECT

iTt>IE nm ST an _m a DISBIMSE SMUiR (mm1 mIttlUn)a. ............................................ ........................... 4.............................................................. .....

... . .. .... ---------- ----- SW$ fiecat leab. ..-................................

e _* As 1991 99 1993 1 19" 199amn t am two an un on l2ow orn too Urn low

A. oiwr arterial roadst

Al. wds5n 1 210od0 M 6.1S 9C5.44 47.92 78.50 101.42 30.08 62.5 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.0O

12. IZ3OR u3 11 tsgrfa 1iP) 12.33 0.00 21.1? L.92 20.93 18.42 33.33 22.49 0.49 0.00 0.2? 0.00

B. traffic $dety d MS........................... -

St. caenl-mter vhle ba 17.63 340 3.36 4.07 3.14 4.07 4.49 0.32 2.06 0.16 1.83 0.16

Q2. TM CIO 0.20 0.43 0.95 2.49 1.12 3.01 0.67 1.58 0.35 0.76 0.11 0.2483. UC bluak 0.50 0.16 0.3? 0.94 0.43 1.14 0.25 0.60 0.13 0.29 0.04 0.09

ohbtdtal - S Jrect A B 151.23 10.34 131.2 50.23 10S.12 11.25 48.92 07.74 3.01 1.21 2.25 0.49~~~~~~~~~~ ........ ,,, ........ ,,, ...... ...... ,......... ...... ......... ...... ........ ...... ...... ..... ...- *--

C. T1edcal Aslatuu:....................

c1,C21 . Project lW idatlun 0.00 0.37 0.0 2.54 0.40 2.78 0.00 1.14 0.00 1.14 0.00 0.1?

C4. PT tuwegteI Priorities 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 21 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.08

C$. FesIbfltty Steeo 0.00 0.62 0.00 2.4S 0.00 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0o 0.00

C6. Usrip. Ir mport Imatitute 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.76 0.00 0.7b6 C -0 0.76 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.0Q

C?. Shu$mal Tlmit Co. stud 0.00 0.00 0.08 1.25 0.00 1.2S 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

CS. Read Ilantaumw Eqdju* 0.08 0.00 0.00 1.11 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.08

C9. Ceater Eq£pipwt fow C6. 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Subtolt -Put C 0.00 1.44 0.00 11.20 0.08 8.10 0.00 1.89 0.00 1.t4 0.08 0.1M...... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...... ...... .... ...... ...... ..... ...... ...... ...... ...... ......

Total eapmndlt (O M mill) 151.23 11.78 131.29 69.43 104.12 139.35 6U.92 9.63 3.01 2.35 2.25 0.67

oUsM dill) 2B.97 2.26 25.15 13.30 19.95 26.70 13.18 17.1t 0.5B 0.45 0.43 0.13

SXB dgobwsecnt (C=1 mill) 151.23 131.29 104.12 68.82 3.01 2.25

Spec. Rect ddlR n I USS OMi) 0.00 15.56 26.70 17.17 0.4S 0.13CumtaRtve 0.00 15.56 42.25 5A.4I 59.8? 60.00

Spoc O=t ue54enisiut m5S min) 6.00 Ic 12.23 23.35 18.42 0.08 0.08mulative 6.00 18.23 41.50 60.00 60.00 60.08

Special coseuAt balmuce USS min) 6.00 2.67 *0.67 0.58 0.13 0.00

............................................ -....................................................................................

O-Su-91 la E UitUS to be fud fru I3 ctedit preeds dsw IInMIB eplvtalueutslb amuy t * _eCeer 31ic Initial deposit US$6 alliton (eqaivalent tt expected peak quarterly disburwse nt)

Page IProject Iuipl.enttion Scf.Aale 02-Nr........ ............... _._.....____....... _........................ ................................ ...........................................................

.. ................ ............................... ... ..........1PRJrE l '199) * 1992 : 1993 : 1994 , 199f : 1996 :SESIPTIIN IETR JFWANJJA9N:JFMANJJASOsJFAJJASWaJFINJJASC:JFANJJASOND:JF JASVD.. ... ..................................... ..... ......... . .................. ...............................................................................A J O 2R A RTEIAL O A D S s I 5 zhansa vievwt Site P?patlan FA D: : : : 5 :LCl . RlRRRhR1RR : :3*31 Ra :tA d*:d:tMUlPAAUA: : : :Tail Roeds LCB dd6SU3C=C:CCCCCCCCCCCC:CC :Viaduct I d p _a;p: BC:a=:CCCCCC: :COCLighting FA dld llsililiiliillilll : :.......... ; ... .... i .................. ......... .. ....

.......... ................ ........... .... ...,ss,:::sThmWm Surwce Site Preparation 5A OIaD:_:_: : : 1_Rnmas FA MAIMU : :_ : : :ARU MMFA dAIdd:4|:11LAW W : :Bridg 3 & piwin tc :ddbbW:CCCCCC C: :rr Pr"lntersectfl & Drs1ns LCIi d_|; MCCCCCCCCCCCC:.XCCCCCCCi : ft CO LCII rr:dW6r t.VCCKCCCC;S)won A rwkt" LCII I : Ill:li1iJIIII: ................................ ~~~~~............ I..............I............ ........... 0... ...... 0...... .. :t :siiTA 84 f fI * 11 A .. SA .. GEN E ... Io ..... t ..... ......owAetiC 1ro site Pr_watin FA st l

FA ddWJ : :LO :'laChml§tation F1t :tidkCC.C:CCCC=SCCCCCCCt )CCcC:C t:rCPrrrrfr rHIlssinm ein s FA i dCCs s : dd"C: dM0St s "=IBrldos LCB Wdd :sAbMCC0CC : s 0 ................... i..*...... ........... ...... 0..... ..... *........ . ........ ......... . ...... ...... ...... ........ :::st:;COD Ac Jctn 1nw owls 8 Clm21tittien LCBAISIFA dd*l C:CCCC=:COCCCCCCC=CC:CC=CsCCCCC=:CCOCCMC Cr .. P.. ... ... 40........0........ ........... ......... O..: .............. O........... #..O.... ...... 2.. ........... ......... MD Alttic PrW Signls & lmitetlmn LCJfA d :::=- s : :cccc............................................

........ . .............. ........... ........ ........ ....s:s::s

n 1g1m .R.R. 04e1fs(er O b Xxutxxxs_ s:xxx3: rxxx3txlxxx3u:::traffic Man_at Suppwt O l i b s:xxvXxxxxxx 2 : :project Maagmet Swt O b : _ : tNxuxxxgxXX$XKKXXXL(x s1Urb Jransport lnwas-tt Prlorf ties O xxxb b :sstuUXXXXXx : feribfZtfty gSSies . O t : : : : s :MM: S..T. Institue O :_:xxzxxxxxxtxxxxxx:: : :xxxxSb_|§i lnit Cpnyw Study O bbixxxxvm.xxxxx::s::Ro bintomc E4Jpment 'bbbsxx s ::s: e :

IIWE: b:- bidding dwts; d: design ; ps- prequlilfiestion B:. biddivo; C:. civ(t ICB; O:. dewltition; 1:. imtallatfn M 11: rteloetfar; U: utilities; xt: tedhnfesl Istloanee. fee; fntwrmthnal copetftive biddl#v; LC0: local coMtitive bidding;OOLItS: timited iv;"ifant( psMWng; rk forc scown; Ots othe.

Al ZUNOMSRWI I (VIAWCT) - INPLEHEIITATION SCIUIL AND CAS0 FLOU....... ............. __._..... .................................................................

Expeniture flow (S pw 530 FT)Categor & Itm1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Total..... 0 ............ ..... ............... .. ...... ....... .............

Lord Reqaiitian: mU itll. 105.8 76.6 V.? 0.0 0.0 0.0 210.1.................

0lfAt1osn PctIr 803 203 0a 03 03 03 1003Eegttlmmtt g M 403 40 2 Q3 ox 1003ltititles relocation so% An 103 0 ox 03 10

CM^I Vuut mi Nilt. 9.0 69.6 151.7 9.2 0.0 0.0 321.5_...._......

Trail Road Contract UA PctIr 40X 50X 103 0s QS 0o lQ0Trail Ioad Contrat 13 S 40 503 103 03 03 0 1002Vialat Contract ZA 03% 203 5OX 30 ox 01 1003Viudint cotract 23 ox 203 50 30 as 03 10Lfghtinf a 0X 103 50s 40X 0s 03 1003Foib (Nita.ria, E*mn : a NIl. 8.0 0.0 0.o 0.0 0.0 0.a 1.0............................

Cwa .... Pcth a os ox a as a

gInzwlng aid Addfnltratfon M Nitt. 12.3 7.1 3.5 1.6 0.0 0.0 24.6......... .................. , .

Rddx mF re/ SX 40S 3SS 0 ox ox lowfimi §nzel m 20 ox ox ox ox 100CLotruction 8ofn 253 45X 303 52 lo a 100*

Subtotal RIS N1iI. 127V 153.3 182.9 92.8 0.0 0.0 536.1-------- Pctlyr 22.93 2r.a 32.9S 16.73 0.03 0.03 1003

Todhical Assistance: e mtIll. O. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0-...................

cnmtruwtien esuspvision Pft/yr 0s 0a 0o 0o 0o 0o 0O(Sae Table C)

TOTAL mUlNil. 12? 153 18 93 0 0 .1S-Pctlr 22.93 27."6 32.93 16.73 0.03 0.0X 1003

Sources: u MU Nitt. 21.0 105.4 78.5 30.1 0.0 0.0 33.otlio * 6.1 47.8 104.4 62.? 0.0 0.0 221.1…. ...... ........................................…........................................................

!09" 00'0 e000 0*Z2 Z9'1 26'2 00 u mlo 9tS8@ a'O 6r0 £££ £f6' it'2 WI U2 '11W a ssn

253 XZ'@ ZV' ID 2Y62 Zt Xf'6 .AIM. .....-::H5IM 0 0 95 o 0 2 Et lIIII anIVIo

n 10 XD s l

20 20 S20 20 20| 20S 20 e u* *--

U C O " w tZ Z~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~WW*18V1~1WPS11001 X20 ZiYO 21*?t 2S'62 IFUIt U6 JAh'.....

i~~~o = =2 us %0 ut so voeAssm 1 $msF 0 w~~ 0 95 0D XtO 710 1108IU iu1533tu'

no0 20 CSI 205 0O 0 201 202 X S w,,

4 999 9' S'O 0 5'0 5 0re t'i 9'! '11W : a

l | t w w w w w w *aN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~............... o. .........

010 ~ ~ ~ ~~ 0soHI lo 3auusdin w)w3Jsiw) *no,

2061 20 20 09 20! 110 ~~20 ON4nP a| n ¢'G ¢ O 0 %6 us O O9 Su7" I{l '@)@4tP

<; I 2001 20 20 20L 20£ 20 XOc wep0| w

Ii t .W *~* 0~ 90 woI w o 'l £a fz 010 lIII an qm 1w

no0 so a to 0 Su t 0 a (2) DISISmlJ SJS)))3a001 0 t 20 20 %0 %0 %51 Jzz Quoqsbw tg) Mla Ip=

9841 5661 6 9 61 , 166X 66 1661

(AU US .ao 2) N)5 DJIMPUSdV

MUbl OMV GW 310010 UDIAVII3WI3-1d 3MI (S3OVAUd 410UM) 11 NVUSONOEZV2

B1 ON-MTM0 VE01ICLE RISM - IWLE NTATION SIE AIND CASII FLOW.. _ . . .... .. . .... . .... . . ... .. .. .. . . . ... ...... .......... _ .... .. .. ....

Experdi ture flow CZ per sUBPTcatgory & Iten

1991 1992 1993 1 1995 1996 total

La.d. R sitiont so Rill. 15.9 0.? 0.7 4.0 1.7 1.7 24.8

olittamn ad rmttelat PCttyr 64X 31 31 l6 7X 71 llW00s1 0t O1 01 01 OX o

Utilities rstoatiui 1001 ox 0 01 01 Os 1001 ta

Clvit Vrwb: S Will. 3.S 5.6 5.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 15.3...........

Traffic o1snlt PCt*yr 641 1'4 1I4 4 21 2S 1001Cbwm,litaticn 64a 141 141 41 21 2X 1001Risafeg Iirks 641 0x ox 1n 91 91 1001Brhle. 01 so5 s50 ox as 0% 100

e (stwalats, Eqpipfnt): aB Kitt. 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.6.......... ,...........Traffic 8lnmOIs & isig Pct/r 64X 1b1 141 416 21 2 1001 I i

EaineirIw ad Ahinistratian US 1i11. 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.1 o......... .............................................

Aftnistretimn Pcttr 251 301 151 1S% la5S 1001fin al iuih IeO1 401 301 201x 1n ox 1001Cultruttlmn utpervisin * 201 20n 201 201 20tS 01 100

OllllStoutiS IDIl. 21 7 7 5 2 2 4.65...... ftPet/y 47.3X 16.61 16.11 10.7X 4.92 4.41 1001

Technical Assistwes: - Milt. 00 0 0 0........ ..............

...... ....... Petyr 01 0 01 01 OS 01s 0ftt/W ox 01 1 0 1 Ol 0

TOTAL UISlBNitt. 21 7 7 5 2 2 44.85-Ptlyr 47.31 16.61 16.11 10.71 4.91 4.4b 1001 4

Sources: SW R1B Ntil. 17.63 3.36 3.14 4.49 2.04 1.83 32.48130D * 3.60 4.07 4.07 0.32 0.16 0.16 12.37

.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. *

31 AlM-HMOH VEHICLE VOADS - IIULH TATIEI SCHEDU AIM CASH VWJI........... . ............... .. .. .. ...... ... .. .......... A.....................Z

Expltwe tlo Cl psi 63 fO)catego & litem

1991 1992 1993 1994 199S 1996 Total

La6 h_p1sttien: RIU alti. 15.9 0.? 0.7 4.0 1.7 1.7 24.8..... ..................

Dentition oW rosettlaunt ftt:vr 642 32 32 16" 72 71 O"~~~~0 ox as os ox a ot ox

Utfilitiesrtae cz 15 m ox 0 Os 0X as Ieon

Civil this: . 3t1t. 3.5 5.6 5.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 15.3...........

traff le stas 0tlt " UZ 14X a 2 2 1 w

Chutizotl n 642 142 14X 4 222 a 100tnheimagtit"s 642 ox a 1in 92 91 10o1Uridwe Os so5 51 0 0u s 02 Os 100

Good aterialst. Epuht me Kill. 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.6............................

Traffic stoats & sals PcttY 642 141 142 a 21 22 1002

&ariwsrierai ed Add*istraticn INUtl. 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 O .0 2.1

Adnistration ftt/Yr 252 m 152 5S In St t100Fink u§iaisr OH 401 302 202 10f ox 1002

Comsstrimtmiqisrin 202 201 20 202 201 0a 1002

Subtotatl m Nlt. 21 7 7 5 2 2 44."5........ ftt/y 47.3 16M.4 16.1 10.72 4.91 4. 1002

ToWed t Asslstarz 31mt111. S 0 0 0 0 0..... ........ _ ,,.__

..t/yr ox W aos 02 0 a ox.ox ox OX 02 o0 x ox 0

TOTA. 1 Kittll. 21 7 7 5 2 2 44.85.ft/y 4T.31 16.6 16.Z 10.7O 4.9 4.42 1002

Soure: OM S115 Nit. 17.63 3.36 3.14 4.49 2.04 1.6 32.48 0

15II * 3.60 4.07 4.07 0.32 0.16 0.16 12.37.................................. ................ ....... ... .. 0...............

02. COI tRAFFtC NAIAGENU -IMPLINWATEON SCEDULE AND CAS FLOW

ExpedIitwe flow (X w per FT) TCtegoy 8 ItaDJ1991 1m 193 19 lf 19 To

Lend ReIetion: R pill. 15.9 0.7 0.7 4.0 1.7 1.7 24.8............. ........ ;;; MiDenUtinuf ett lemiio mt t Pct/'yr 641 39 32 1 71 71 10

0 1 o0 OK Os Os a2Utilities relocattin 1001 01 0s ox 01 ox 1001

Civit Vorbi m N"il. 3.5 5.6 S.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 IS.3

trafff¢ lineis Pft/yr "S 14X 141 2 2 lQO Oimteztation a 64% 14% 141 41 2 21 100xHissing links 61 01 OX 1n 9X ox 1001BrkIds O* SO S0o ox 0s 0t 1001

G0. (Ntaterfals. EwpMft): UB1 It. 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.6............................

Traffle sismIs & sln fctyr 641 14 14X 41 21 21 1001

Enineerli end A inistratfen as mill. 0P. 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.1 ... __.__... . .. . .. . .. . ..

Admnistration Pottyr 251 30% 151 15 101 51 100XFirmt eMwineerg Os 0 40 3OX 20X 1OX OX 100Castnetimn sIWvisio 201 201 201 201 20 01 10x 1.

ElsDtot uUmItI . 21 7 7 5 2 2 M.8S..... I.. Pcttyr 47.31 16.41 16.1X 10.71 4.9% 4.4X 1001

Tetdmeil Asslstmwe: 0 Pitt. 0 0 0 0 0 0....................

O..*.* .Pt/yr 0t 0% ox 01 01 o1 o0...... ox....... .......... O% 0 0 0 0 ox Os

MIAl. m Illtl. 21 7 7 S 2 2 4. 8Patwr 47.3X 16.61 16.11 10.J 4.9% 4.4 100S 0%

Sourcss SG INS NH ilt. 17.43 3.36 3.14 4.49 2.04 1.83 32.48two 8 3.60 4.07 4.07 0.32 0.16 0.16 12.37................. ................................................................... _I ............................... ....... ..............

oo**o@*v-*****won**6*-****---v--****----^-**............ ....... .............. .................... _.* o. . *___... ........;..*X

solo 0S'S S00' 00o0 110-0 000 ogl *e 111N ON S 3993UWS

301 S1t Zs o 0 A 3 3....40 t6oo lot I 6-1 109 l '1 MN UU Wm

1051 0 10 0 so 101 so * 93 JW dp * G IV3=U 'd3ml 0 s0 20 01 10 S AO 00 w0p 0 WI ,,,

L'l 0'S 00 0'0 090 VI 0'0 *11|" I

4 3001 30 xootS 1us 3m so1 A . *3Mul *1'3' * 3

*~ 1001 50 IOD 30 501 IGOS 100 *@aJI/ USp WiA Iqu8 11001 10 1 10 20 10 * a 03aMdW SMIl1a' 33001 10 31 0 us1 10s 101 a03JD RJOdI iwS M S d '13

H ..... s--- ........... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~....................za1001 10 101 301 "10 11 1

f .~~..................................................................................................... .................. I)1@A0 966l 1661 "61 f661 166 1 w

(UAU zan 1w) no); .jmipwdmb

SV3U OM W 31MMMOS 0lVIN03WRI * IUVSISSV W3IWUI3 '3

-120- ANNEX 11Page 1

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

CHINA

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT

Performance Heasures for MonitorinAResettlement and Other Environmental Impacts

Supervision

1. The following provisions are proposed for monitoring demolition,resettlement, and other environmental impacts.

(a) Objectives

(i) To evaluate the actual physical progress vith demolition andresettlewmnt relative to planned progress, as a basis fordetermining whether the schedule for planned transport improve-ments is likely to be met, and for taking corrective action ifdifferences between actual and planned progress indicate thatthis is necessary;

(ii) to identify actual expenditures for demolition and resettle-ment, relative to planned expenditures, as a basis for deter-mining whether implementation is proceeding within the finan-cial constraints established during appraisal, and takingcorrective action if tiffferences between actual and plannedprogress indicate tbat this is necessary, and as a basis forIBRD disbursements;

(iii) to evaluate the actual physical, financial, and economic char-acteristics of the demolition and resettlement component of theproject, relative to planned characteristics, to determinewhether the economic, social, and environmental objectives ofthe project are likely to be met, and taking corrective actionif differences between actual and planned characteristics indi-cate that this is necessary; and

(iv) to monitor the environmental impacts of the project duringimplementation, and to institutionalize a system for theirpermanent monitoring.

(b) Performance Measures

(i) physical completion of demolition and new construction, bylocation;

(ii) financial expenditures, by demolition and relocation area andby item;

-121- ANNEX 11Page 2

(iii) the composition of financial expenditures and the implicationsof this for economic costs:

(iv) numbers of households relocated (a) in permanent housing, and(b) in temporary housing, from/to each location;

(v) numbers of enterprises relocated from/to each location;

(vi) physical characteristics of the permanent and temporary reloca-tion areas, including the degree of coordination in site devel-opment;

(vii) informal evidence of relocatees' satisfaction with new facili-ties (for example, actual uses of space, compared with planneduses);

(viii) levels of traffic noise in adjacent residential buildings,before and imuediately after the improvements to ZhongshanRoad, the Vusong Bridge approaches, and the NHV system;

(ix) levels of traffic-generated air pollutants in and adjacent tothe rights-of-way developed in the projects

(x) the disruption of traffic affected directly by the constructionand/or land uses in areas adjacent to the project areas;

(xi) traffic-related accident rates in areas affected directly bythe project; and

(sii) land use and imputed values for use rights in areas adjacent tothe improvements undertaken in the project;

(c) Procedures

2. The performance measures (i)-(ix) will be monitored quarterly; mea-sure (x) will be monitored monthly during construction; measures (xi) nmd(xii) will be monitored annually. Progress reports will be submitted to therelevant commissions in the municipality, and the municipality will submitcopies of these reports to the IBRD, together with other project monitoringreports required by the IBRD.

3. The data on which the monitoring of demolition and resettlement isbased will be available to the IBRD on request and will include the originalsurveys of the sites, households, and establishments in the demolition areas;the original programs for demolition and resettlement, with records of anychangesl and the original project designs and budgets for the relocationareas, together with any changes; as well as the quarterly reports of themonitoring units.

4. The monitoring unit responsible for monitoring resettlement, as apart of the basis for its quarterly reports, will undertake random samplingsof the households and enterprises surveyed in the demolition areas and in the

-122- AMNN 11Page 3

relocation areas, to evaluate the actual consequences of relocation, relativeto expected consequences.

(d) Institutional Resj,onsibiliUt and Staffing

5. Four project monitoring units in existing agencies, vith appropriatefull-tine staffing to be agreed upon prior to negotiations, will be maderesponsible for monitoring resettlement and environmental impacts. The unitsvill be the followingt

(a) a Demolition and Resettlement Monitoring Unit, to be establishedunder the Planning Commission or the Capital Construction Comnissionand working in collaboration with the relevant District MunicipalEngineering Construction Companies (which presently monitor demoli-tion and resettlement informally and assist in resolving conflictsand eliminteing bottlenecks in construction);

(b) a Pollution Monitoring Unit in the Municipal Environmental Protec-tion and Sanitation Bureau (possibly through the assignment of spe-cific responsibilities for this to existing staff);

(C) a Traffic Safety Monitoring Unit, under the Traffic Division of theShanghai Public Security Bureau; and

(d) a Development IMpact Monitoring Unit, under the Shanghai MunicipalPlanning Bureau. (This unit should be responsible for the basicmonitoring of the metropolitan areas physical development, buildingon to procedures initiated during the identification of alternativedevelopment scenarios in the preparation of the project.)

-123- Annex 12Pag^e 1

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

CHINA

SHANGHAI HETROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT

Analysis of Project Benefits

1. Economic analysis has been done separately for the two main compo-nents of the project: (a) Zhongshan Road viaduct and surface improvements,and (b) Inner city traffic improvements which include traffic management,nonmotorized vehicle network creation, and the Wusong Bridge approaches.Savings in road user cost were used to measure the economic benefits for bothcomponents. Road user costs were divided into vehicle operating costs (VOC)and the cost of passengers' time; freight time costs. which are smaller butnot insignificant, were ignored for the sake of simplicity. VOC include fuel,tires, vehicle maintenance and depreciation, insurance, and labor, for themain vehicle types in use in Shanghai (five classes of vehicle). The cost oftime was calculated based on average passenger occupancy for each vehicletype. Both VOC and time cost savings result from a reduction in delays and anincrease of speed as a result of project investments.

Zhongshan Road Viaduct and Surface Improvements

2. Zhongshan Road traffic is already diverting to a network of inade-quate streets to make the journey around the main business district ofShanghai from northeast to southwest. About 40 percent of present Zhongshantraffic demand is estimated to be diverted in the most heavily congestedsouthwestern portion. By the time tlhe project starts, the without-projectcase would find this portion of Zhongshan completely saturated during peakperiods, and nearing saturation during off peak periods. Further diversionwould be cumulative and rapid. and would quickly raise costs in the network ofstreets in the Zhongshan corridor. With the project, which more than doublescapacity in the highly congested southwestern section of Zhongshan by means ofa viaduct, and makes minor improvements in the northeastern portion of theroad, congestion is relieved on both Zhongshan and the network of streets inthe Zhongshan corridor. To the southeast, the project includes road-wideningto the Wusong River, and two additional traffic lanes and a bicycle laneacross the river. Beyond the river, congestion is relatively minor. Thenortheastern section of Zhongshan will reach serious congestion levels in afew years, but comparative economic analysis showed clearly that heavy invest-ments on that part of the road should be delayed. The increasing congestionof this part of Zhongshan Road is taken account of in the rate of return anal-ysis.

3. The method for calculating VOC was to develop empirically determinedfunctions relating vehicle speed to the ratio of traffic volume to road capa-city, (V/C ratio), and to calculate VOC on the basis of vehicle speed anddelays, for each of five vehicle types, for vehicles using the Zhongshan Roadand for those using tne network of streets in the Zhongshan corridor. Normalgrowth of traffic was then assumed, and traffic was assigned according to

-124-Annex 12Page 2

historical proportions until Zhongehan Road was saturated, then the trafficwas diverted to the nearby network, and finally divertud outside the corridoraltogether. Separate traffic assignments and cost calculations were made formorning and evening peak traffic, for normal daytime traffic and for nighttraffic. In this type of model, each year produces higher VIC ratios anditcreased diversion, leading to higher total VOC, with or without the project.With the project, however, the escalation of cost is from a lower base, and inthe long run, benefits persist because more vehicles can use Zhongshan Roadrather than the more indirect and slower routes of the corridor network.

4. Detailed economic return analysis was done by consultants, based ona complex traffic model which calculates V/C ratios and speeds on the roads ofthe Zhongshan corridor. This was supplemented by updating counts and speedobservations done by the consultants. These are included in 'Comparison ofOptions, Economic Evaluation," March 1989, updated in "Economic Evaluation ofSchemes 3, 3A, and 5,' both available in the project file. Both volumes areprimarily concerned with choosing among various alternatives--longer orshorter viaducts, greater or smaller investments in surface improvements--andthey were quite valuable for that purpose. No single analysis, however, pre-sents the results of the exact combination agreed upon by the appraisal mis-sion. For this reason and other more technical reasons (e.g., differences inanalysis period and in scrap values), the VOC savings have been recalculated,using the functions relating speed to density, and VOC to speed, as estimatedin the consultants' report. The results are sunmarised in Table 1, and a sam-ple of the detailed analysis of average VOC for one section of the road isincluded as Tables 2a and 2b. The complete detailed calculations are avail-able in the project file.

5. Time cost savings were calculated by the consultants using the samebasic speediflow parameters that were, used for VOC estimation, and addingobservations about passengers per vehicle for each vehicle type. The result,in numerical terms, is rapidly increasing time savings and value of timesaved. Because passengers ha"e alternatives such as bicycles over the compar-atively short distances in flat terrain, the low projected speeds and hightime costs in the-without-project case seemed possibly overstated. Therefore,time savings have been reestimated, based on detailed analysis of first yearsavings that are firmly grounded in present observations (see Table 3). Slowgrowth in time savings, less than one third of projected traffic growth, isassumed thereafter.

6. Two key assumptions in the rate of return calculation may lead tounderstatement of the internal rate of return. First, traffic growth assump-tions are well below recent traffic increases. This partly reflects provin-cial governmental policy to control the vehicle fleet administratively, butbecause the primary traffic category on Zhongshan Road is comnercial trucks,the fleet control policy may not be consistent with production goals andincentives. To the extent that the traffic growth rate is underestimated, theVOC savings are underestimated. Second, the evaluation of time cost savingsfollows the normal Bank practice of placing very low values on time, or count-ing only a portion of the passenger hours saved, which amounts to the samething. In the calculatLon used for appraisal, only 30 percent of the passen-ger hours saved were included in the calculation of value of savings (meant to

-125- Annex 12Page 3

approximate the proportion of work trip hours), and they were evaluated at arate equal to average hourly earnings for the province.

7. As shown in Table 1, the rate of return based on these methods andobservations is 18.1 percent. A 1S-percent increase in cost would lower therate of return to 16.5 percent. A two-year delay in benefits, which wouldimply a 50-percent t)Ne overrun, would lower the return to 16.9 percent. AllCosts and benefits are calculated in border prices using the conversion fac-tors shown in Table 4. (Calculated at market prices, the rate of return isslightly higher.)

Inner City Improvements

8. Traffic conditions in the Central Business District and District 9,directly across Suzhou Creek to the north, are the most heavily congested inall of Shanghai. Buses compete with bicycles in a very sharp morning andevening peak, each lasting approximately an hour and collectively accountingfor about 30 percent of bus traffic and 46 percent of bicycle traffic. Duringthese periods, the streets are effectively saturated, with Lpeeds for bothbicycles and buses in the neighborhood of 8 km per hour. Automobile and trucktraffic is more evenly spaced throughout the day. Although sharing the even-ing peak, they compete little with bicycles and buses in the morning rush.Hence, their average daily speeds are higher. The Waibaidu Bridge acrossSuzhou Creek is a bottleneck to traffic between the CbD and District 9, slow-ing traffic flow on the most heavily crowded corridor in the city.

9. The improvements financed through this project directly address themost serious traffic problems ln the inner city and comprise a package of themost necessary improvements. The nonmotor vehicle roads will make a massiveimprovement in peak hour performance. Prior to the project, 82 percent ofbicycle flows in the CBD will be in mixed traffic. After completing the NMVnetwork, only 20 percent of bicycles will initially be competing with othervehicles. The project also creates a buses only network along the riverfrontside of the CBD and across Suzhou Creek, using the existing Waibaidu Bridge,which will become an exclusive bus brldge. The parallel Wusong Bridge, forwhich the project provides the approaches (the bridge itself being aby-product of a necessary floodgate, nearing completion), will have abouttwice the capacity of the existing bridge and should remove the bottleneck tononbus traffic. In addition to the many vehicle-only streets that are createdwith by routing bicycles to NHV routes, the project will also create one-waypair bus lanes going both north and south and east and west through the CBD.Finally, the existing street system, and still more the special-purpose streetsystems being created by the project, will be engineered to handle trafficbetter, particularly at intersections.

10. For calculation of vehicle cost savings and time svings on thisintegrated package of projects, the investments have been lumped together (the

-126- Annex 12Page 4

Wusong Bridge approaches,11 Traffic Management and Safety, and NMV Roads)since the benefits accrue to the package of measures. For example, the cre-ation of NMV routes, though convenient for cyclists, could make little costsavings without the traffic engineering and creation of bus-only and motorvehicle-only routes. The Vusong Bridge would relieve a bottleneck, but alarge part of the benefits are from the creation of a bus route over WaibaiduBridge and along the CBD. Traffic engineering would have more limited possi-bilities without the NMV routes. Practically eneaking, none of these invest-men~.s would be economical without the other two.

11. The method of calculation was to use the speed/flow relationshipsemerging from a complex origin and destination model to determine speeds withand without the project for 1994. Using the model of speed/VOC relationshipscreated by the consultants for the city streets on the Zhongshan corridor net-work, the VOC with and without the project were calculated, and time costsderived exactly as in the Zhongshan corridor. It was not practical to run theorigin-destination model for a series of years, since each run takes severaldays. Therefore, first-year (1994) savings were assumed to continue for thelife of the project. This is surely an understatement of benefits, but nopractical alternative exists. The calculated rate of return by this method is32.1 percent, not unusually high for this type of intervention. A 30-percentincrease in cost would reduce the rate of return to 26.9 percent. A two-yeardelay in benefits would reduce the rate of return to 25.2 percent. The sum-mary rate of return calculation is shown in Table 5. Complete detailed calcu-lations are available in the project file.

1/ The Wusong Bridge soproach roads were appraised as part of the projectand included in the network analyzed as part of the economic evaluation.The approach roads were constructed in 1990/91 with local funds and areno longer part of the project. Since the approaches contribute signifi-cantly to the costs and less so to the benefits, the analysis of theproject components shown in Table 5 underestimate the IRR attributable tothe project-funded components.

-127- Annex 12Page S

TABLE 1: SUMMARY RATE OF RETURN CALCULAT IONS, ZRONCSNAM ROAD IMPROVEMENTS AND VIAOUCT

TOTAL 1/ TOTAL VEHICLE OPERATING COST VALUE TOTAL NET NET COSTS ENFITSIIVEST- NAINTE- SAVINGS OF UENEFITS BENEFITS ENFITS PLUS 15 DELAYEDET COST AINCE DAYTINE NIGhT TOTAL TIME AT LOCAL ECO IC Tn YEARS

COST TRAP#IC TRAFFIC SAVO PRICES PRICES 2/l ii fif Iv v vi vii viii

wV+i *V1fi*j4 e

1990 -23.09 -23.09 -30.95 -35.59 -24.761991 -115.58 -11S.58 -154.93 -178.18 -123.951m -170.75 -170.7s -228.89 -263.22 -183.111993 -100.51 -100.51 -134.73 -154.94 -107.791994 -0.10 19.45 1.29 20.7? 44.30 65.04 64.94 71.34 71.34 -37.181995 -0.10 21.S5 1.39 22.98 45.19 68.16 68.06 75.1T 75.17 -72.721996 -0.10 23.75 1.50 25.25 46.09 71.34 71.24 79.06 79.06 79.061997 -0.10 27.99 1.62 29.61 47.01 76.62 6.52 85.68 85.68 85.681998 -0.10 46.53 1.75 48.29 47.95 96.24 96.14 111.11 111.11 111.11

1999 -0.10 56.66 1.89 S8.55 48.91 107.46 107.36 125.52 125.52 125.522000 -0.10 54.99 2.05 57.04 49.89 106.93 106.8 124.52 , 124.52 124.522001 -0.10 60.12 2.22 62.34 50.89 113.22 113.12 132.46 132.46 132.462002 -0.10 as.19 2.41 8T.60 51.90 139.50 139.40r 166.S8 166.58 166.582003 -7.40 104.87 2.61 107.48 S2.94 160.42 153.02 183.90 183.90 183.902004 -0.10 1iO.90 2.84 105.73 54.00 159.74 159.66 192.4S 192.45 192.452005 -0.10 111.32 3.08 114.41 S5.06 169.49 169.39 204.90 204.90 204.902006 -0.10 119.97 3.35 123.33 56.18 179.51 179.41 217.70 217.70 217.702007 -0.10 129.09 3.65 132.75 57.31 190.05 189.95 231.16 231.16 231.162008 -0.10 132.49 3.98 136.47 58.45 194.93 194.83 237.19 237.19 237.192009 -0,10 138.03 4.34 142.37 59.62 202.00 201.90 246.10 246.10 2U.102010 -0.10 143.85 4.74 148.58 60.81 209.40 209.30 255.63 255.43 255.432011 -0.10 149.96 5.17 155.14 62.03 217.17 217.07 265.24 265.24 265.242012 -0.10 154.85 5.66 160.51 63.27 223.78 223.68 273.52 273.52 273.52

2013 -7.40 156.71 6.19 162.90 66.54 22W.44 220.04 268.13 268.13 268.13

2014 -0.10 156.90 6.78 163.68 65.83 229.S1 229.41 280.23 280.23 280.232015 -0.10 1S6.87 7."4 164.30 67.16 231.45 231.35 282.36 282.36 282.36

2016 -0.10 156.84 8.16 165.00 68.69 233.48 233.38 284.61 284.61 284.612017 -0.10 156.61 8.96 165.57 69.86 235.43 235.33 286.74 286.76 286.742018 -0.10 156.11 9.85 165.96 71.2? 237.21 237.11 288.64 288.64 288.66

INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN 0.1809 0.1646 0.1694

1/ Investment costs differ from finantial cost tables becruse only replacement cost of housing is inctuded here.According to practice of the municipality of Shanghai, 4.2 sq. meters of housing will be constructed for eachsq. ceter of housing destroyed. This entire cost Is irrluded In the cost tables.

21 Conversion factors derived from Table 4 have been applied to investment cost, maintenance cost,vehicte operating cost savings. Conversion factors have been appiled to time cost savings on the asswqption that

of the labow hours s8ed, S of 6 ere unskilled labor.

-128- -Page 6

Table 2A: VENICLE OPERATING COrT ZIGI N RO SUCTION Cl-C, OFF PM, VITUT "wOJCT

TAFPIC CAPACITY L ATs Loan Parmters for VOC calcutation 3/ Peramotere for VC calculation 4/VOLUN VI0 FAT A lKPNf ATS 2/ Al A2 13 A4 AS e1 62 83 54 esV/KP/R MILLIONS ZNtLLIO

191W 15.93 21.87 0.73 16.55 2.92 1.20 1.16 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15 *0.23 -0.21 -0.251992 16.90 21.8? 0.77 17.30 2.85 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.S5 1.96 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.251993 17.93 21.67 0.62 16.40 2.80 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 *0.1 -0.15 -0.23 .0.21 40.251994 19.03 21.87 0.8 15.s 2.n 1.20 1.14 1.8 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.231 9 20.19 21.87 0.92 14.10 2.M 1.5 1.tb 1.5 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15 .0.23 -0.21 *0.251996 21.4 21.87 O.9" 13.20 2.58 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 *0.1? -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.251997 21.8? 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.1S -0.23 -0.21 -0.251998 21.87 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.251999 21.8? 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 *0.252000 21.87 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.1S -0.23 .0.21 -0.252001 21.87 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 *0.17 -0.1S -0.23 -0.21 -0.252002 21.8A 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.1? -0.15 .0.23 -0.21 -0.252003 21.87 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.8 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.25Z004 21.8? 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.252005 21.87 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.30 1.14 1.5 1.51 1.94 -0.1? -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.252006 21.87 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 *0.252007 21.87 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 .0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.252008 21.8? 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.5 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.252009 21.8? 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.252010 21.87 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.252011 21.8? 21.87 1.00 10.0O 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.252012 21.87 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.252013 21.8T 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.1? -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.252014 21.8? 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15. -0.23 -0.21 -0.252015 21.8? 21.8e 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.1 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.252016 21.8? 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.5' 1.96 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.252017 21.87 21.87 1.00 10.00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.17 -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -0.252018 21.87 21.8? 1.00 10*00 2.30 1.20 1.14 1.58 1.51 1.94 -0.1? -0.15 -0.23 -0.21 -*0.2S

Sourcea DWtailed roto of return calculatlons In project file, ihichcontains catculatIons tor each road section, peak mnd off peak.for the qlfth project" and the "without proje tmP mese.

1t Averae traffic speed (ATS) calculated as: ATS* tifme e to tho pzow b times loed factor.2/ For each vehicle type, Vehicle Operating Costs are caLculated usinm the equation:

VOC-e bnaturl loo of ATOS3/ For eath vehicle type, thos are the psranteor (a) In the equation of note 2.4/ For eath vehicle type, these are the peroneters (b) in the equation in note 2

-129- Annex 12Page 7

Table 2B: LINE BY LINE CONTINUATION Of TAOLE 2A i/

VOC per km for five vehicle types 2J Traffic percentage by vehicle type 3/ AVERAGE TOTAL

VOCI VOC2 VOC3 VOS6 VOCS tYPEl TYPE2 TYPE3 TYPE4 TYPES VOC Crab VOC 4/

PER N)

1991 0.71 0.69 0.91 0.90 1.21 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.78 12.42

¶992 o.n 0.70 0.93 0.91 1.23 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.79 13.391993 0.73 0.71 0.94 0.92 1.23 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.80 14.3?1994 0.74 0.72 0.96 0.94 1.26 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.81 15.471995 0.76 0.74 0.98 0.96 1.28 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.83 16.701996 0.77 0.73 0.99 0.97 1.30 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.84 17.971997 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.401998 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 O.-7 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.401999 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402000 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.6T 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.40

2001 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402002 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402003 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402004 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402005 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402006 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.3? 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402007 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402008 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402009 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402010 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402011 0.81 O.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402012 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.40

2013 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402014 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402015 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402016 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402017 0.8t 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.37 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.402018 0.81 0.79 1.06 1.03 1.3V 0.04 0.67 0.03 0.18 0.08 0.89 19.40

Source: See Table 3a.1/ To make the presentatfon readable, continuation to a second table was necessary.2/ Tese are results of the calculation along each line, showing the VOC per km of

each vehlete typo as a function of the volume of traffic projected for each yew.3/ These are weights reflectine the composition of traffic by vehfcle type for purposes

of calculating average vehicle operating costs. The five types of vehicle aresmall paSsenger vehicle, small and medium freight vehicle, large passenger vehicle,large freight vehicle, end articulated vehicle, represented by Types 1-5.

4/ Total Vehicle Operating Cost, in million 38 for this section of the road, In ecuh

year In the without project case.

-130- Annex 12Page 8

Table 3: VALUE Of TIME SAVEO. ZIONHAN ROAD IMPROVEMENTS AND VIADUCT, INITIAL YEAR, 1994

Calculation of vet.e of time swithout project

VEHICLE LOAD SPEED VEHICLE PASSEIGER WORITRIP VALUEKM 1/ FACTOR 2IKPH HOURS 31 HOURS 4/ MS Si OF TINE

RNSCNIL)ZHONG' UIAROADC1-7 PEAK, 13.SO 1.00 10.00 1.35 25.2? 7.58 19.03C8-12 PEAK 15.75 0.8S 15.75 1.00 18.7 5.62 14.10C1-C? OFF PEAI 19.03 0.87 15.30 1.24 23.28 6.99 17.53C8-C12 OFf PEAK 18.29 0.61 21.80 0.84 15.71 4.71 11.83

CORRIOOR NEtUORK PEAK 108.89 0.79 17.06 6.38 73.78 22.13 SS.S6CORRIDOR IETWORK OFF PEAK 145.36 0.60 22.19 6.5S 72.19 21.66 54.36

HOWS, VALUE TOTAL 17.3? 228.95 68.68 172.40

Calculation of value of time with projectZH0NGSIIANROADCl-7 PEAK, GROUN 6.62 0.4S 27.50 0.24 4.S1 1.35 3.39CIt- PEAK, VIADUCT 16.33 0.4S 63.29 0.26 4.83 1.4S 3.64C8-1Z PEAK 15.75 0.7 17.50 0.90 16.85 5.0S 12.69Cl-C7 OFF PEAK GROUND 7.73 0.32 32.30 0.24 4.48 1.34 3.37Cl-C7 OFF PEAK VIADUCt 18.91 0.32 68.24 0.28 5.19 1.56 3.91C8-C12 OFf PEAK 18.29 0.55 23.6S 0.77 14.48 4.36 10.90

CORRIDOR hiTTWORK PEAK 97.09 0.70 19.17 5.06 5S.81 16.74 42.03CORRIOOR ENdORK OFF PEAK 13S.85 0.56 23.40 5.81 63.98 19.19 48.17

HWAS, VAUIE TOTAL 13.S6 170.12 51.04 128.10

VALUE OF TIME SAVED (MILLION RMM) 6/ 44.30

Source: Detaited rate of return calculations in project fite.1/ Millioms of vehicte km per year In each section of road. Note that the totals differ

in the with project case from those In the without project ce because some trafficnw diverted frm Zhonoshan rosd to altloed to returm to the shorter 2hormshan route.The difference Is minor for the first year (about 4 million vkm) but i1ortnt loter.

21 Defined as the votume of trafffc divided by capacity for each road sectfon.3/ Millfons of vehicte hours per year. Defined as traffie volume divided by speed.41 ased on a weighted average of passengere per vehicte for the ffve vehiclo types used in the

In the economic analysis. For Zhougshan Road traffic and traffic diverted fromZhonshan, this average 1s 18.7; for the streets In the Zhongshan network, 11.2.

S/ Assuamed to be 30X of trips.61 Difference between value of pessanaers time In with prosect cae cowpared to

without project case, fn mill0in of MEM.

-131- Annex 12Page 9

TABLE 4: ECONOMIC COST CONVERSION FACTORS, 1990

FINANCIAL COST CONVERSION ECONOMIC COSTCOMPOSITION % FACTORS CONPOSITION %

CONSTRUCTION COSTSLabor: Unskilled 9.00 0.80 7.20Labor: Skilled 3.90 2.00 7.80Equipment 11.60 1.50 17.40Materials 1/ 32.90 1.20 39.48Cement 7.70 3.00 23.10Steel 4.10 1.90 7.79Timber 4.00i 0.80 3.20Bitumen 1/ 1.40 1.20 1.68Diesel fuel 4.00 1.10 4.40Gasoline 1.00 1.60 1.60Overheads 20.40 1.00 20.40

Total 100.00 134.05

VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS 2/

Labor: Unskilled 11.93 0.80 9.54Equipment (Dep.) 21.07 1.50 31.60Diesel fuel 4.82 1.10 5.30Gasoline 20.30 1.60 32.49Tires 5.33 1.00 5.33Maintenance 25.63 1.40 35.89Overhead 10.91 1.00 10.91

Total 100.00 131.07

Source: Conversion factors from "China: Conversion Factors", January 1990

1/ No converrion factors were calculated in the above sourcefor bitumen and general materials. The factor for roadinvestment was used.

2/ Based on the average of 5 vehicle types usedin the economic analysis.

-132- nex 1.2

Paso 10

Tabl.o 5s uMuv s_rOA hhlMUw OClLawt.auO, 1s* A,FI IS. mvIC UR" AM Nmt , AM N0-OTO,IM V-CR1 =OaSnou wISttio

POW= INWTNSNT 11 PAIIMtl UI CM? S*VIIU 21 MET O. W T. _nT InEltMM M MM OAL AT lit OF 11 VOC tiNS 651n11 UIlt8 PLUI O3LAlYE

YEARlY At NOWKT AT ISIC 1w 138PICIu PmiCnS 3

1990 .0.66 -0.71 -8.47 -9.8 -9.84 -13.19 -17.15 -10.55199" -1.22 -. 90 .3.02 -n1.14 -21.14 -28.34 -36.84 -22.6799 -V.95 -3.66 -2.93 -36.34 *36.54 -48.98 -43.68 *39."

193 -14.07 -2.51 -1.9r -18.35 *18.J5 -24.8 -32.33 -34.871994 -0.24 -1.24 -0.89 -2.3 3.35 31.31 32.19 32.42 31.47 -9.801995 -0.39 -0.80 -1.19 3.3 31.21 33.37 34.01 33.53 -g.311996 -0.45 6.70 62.41 6B.6 70.59 70.41 32.421997 -0.45 6.70 4.41 66.6 70.5 70.61 34.019 -0.45 6.70 62.41 6.6 70.59 70.61 70.411999 .0.45 6.70 42.41 68.6 70.59 70.41 70.412000 -0.4 6.70 2.41 46.46 70.59 7041 70.412a00 -0.45 6.0 62.41 68.6 70.59 70.41 70.412am2 0.45 6.70 41.41 68.6 I0.9 70.41 70.412005 *0.4s 6J.O 62.41 64. M0.59 70.41 70.412004 -0.45 6.70 62.41 48.6 * 0.59 70.41 70.412005 -0.45 6.70 62.41 48.66 tO."9 70.41 70.412006 -0.45 6.70 62.41 do." 70.5 0.41 70.41

Z007 -0.45 6.70 42.41 66.66 M.5 7.41 70.413008 o0.45 6.70 6.41 66. 0.59 70.41 70.412009 .0.45 MO 62.41 6.6 T0.59 7.41 70.412010 .0.45 6.70 62.41 G6." 70.59 70.41 70.41211 *0.45 6.70 62.41 66.66 70.5 70.41 70.412012 .0.45 6.70 62.41 6.6" 7.59 70.41 70.412013 .0.45 6.70 62.41 48.66 70.59 70.41 70.412014 .0.45 6.70 42.41 6.6 70.59 70.41 70.412015 -0.45 6.70 63.41 66.6 70.59 70.41 70.412016 -0.49 6.70 U.41 66.6 70.39 70.41 70.4?201? -0.45 6.70 62.41 66.6 70.59 70.41 70.412018 -0.45 6.70 62.41 6a.6 7C0.59 70.41 70.41

Intnmt rato of r,ewnt 0.3215 0.2690 0.2018II 8eo lnote 1, Tcbtb IV/ lwm _SrIp prc tho butk of TI nd 1M woerk ll be cuptoted by end 1993. Onm half of yearly befIts

hwe bse oaw for tho follteing tw yean Wn miner wrks ar being copleted.SI Sea 10o 2, Tdoo I

-133- ANNEX 13Page 1

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

CHINA

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAN TRANSPORT PROJECT

Selected Documents and Data Available in Project Pile

Item No. Description

1 Financing Urban Transportation in Shanghai, Remy Prud'houe andRichard Darbera, January 1989.

2 Shanghai: Development Scenarios Land Use Scenarios for TransportFinance, Shanghai City Planning and Design Institute and GroupeHuit.

v Phase 1 Report, January 1989

• Final Report, August 1989

3 Zhen Xi Pilot Project, Shanghai Municipal Residential QuartersDevelopment Corporation and Groupe Huit, October 1989.

4 Bus Transportation in Shanghai: Stoppin the Decay. RichardDarbera and Bernard Nicot, November 1989.

5 Shanghai Ferry Company, Rilhard Darbera and B. H. Nicot, November1989.

6 Report on Safety, ShanghAi Comprehensive Transportation PlanningTeam and Barton-Aschmaa Associates, Inc., September 1989.

7 Strategy for Transportation System Management, ShanghaiComprehensive Transportation Planning Team and Barton-AschmanAsso-iates, Inc., September 1989.

8 Resettlement. Prepared by World Bank Appraisal mission, October1989.

9 Shanghai North-South Corridor Study--Shanghai City Planning andDesign Institute and BCEOM French Engineering Company. FinalReport, March 1990.

10 Zhongshan Road Detailed Feasibility and En4ineering, ShanghaiMunicipal Engineering Construction Company (SMECC), ShanghaiMunicipal Engineering Design Institute (SMEDI), and BCEOM FrenchEngineering Company.

-134- ANNEX 13Page 2

• Technical Proposal, September 1988, prepared by BCEOM incollaboration with IAURIF, SOFRETU, and TRANSROUTE.

* Inception Report, December 1988.

• Structural Feasibility Study, February 15, 1989, and March1989, prepared by BCEOM.

o Monthly Report, February 15, 1989, prepared by SCEOM.

e Work Papers No. 0. to 08, March 1989, prepared by BC1OM,SMECC, and SMEDI.

o Detailed Feasibility Study--Final Report, March 1989.

o Plans, March 1989, prepared by BCEOM, SMECC, and SMEDI.

* Detailed Engineering Report (Part A: Technical Report),September 1989, prepared by BCEOM, SHECC, SMEDI, SUCDI.

* Detailed Engineering Report (Part Bh Cost Estimate andEconomic Study), September 1989, prepared by BCEOM, SHECC,SHEDI, AND SUCD!.

* Comparison of Options (prepared by BCEOM, SM3ECC, andSMEDI)s

(1) Capacity Study(2) Economic Evaluation

11 Traffic/Transportation Study, December 1989.

12 Zhongshan Inner-Ring Road--Feasibility Study (SHEDI).

* First Stage--Drawings of Traffic Safety Facility, June1989, prepared by Shanghai Municipal Engineering DesignInstitute (SHEDI).

* First Stage--Drawings of Bridge Design, Section B, June1989, prepared by SHEDI.

o First Stage--Design Drawing of Detailed Engineering 2.Section A (Chang Ning Road--Wu Ning Road), June 1989,prepared by SMEDI.

o First Stage--Design Drawing of Detailed Engineering 3.Sections A and B (Chang Ning Road--Hu Tai Road), June1989, prepared by SMEDI.

13 Prefeasibility Study for Partly Harnessing Pro3ect of Relaxing RoadTraffic in Shanghai Urban Area.

ANNEX 13-135- Page 3

e Scheme Drawing, September 1988, prepared by ShanghaiDesign Institute of Urban Construction, Shanghai UrbanConstruction Design Institute (SUCDI).

o Bicycle Ways, September 1988, prepared by SUCDI.

14 Feasibility Study for Nonmotorized Way--Puji Bridge Project(Summary), March 1989, prepared by Shanghai Urban ConstructionDesign Institution.

15 A Brief Introduction to the Maintenance and Administration of theMunicipal Engineering Facilities of Shanghai Urban District,February 1989, prepared by Shanghai Municipal EngineeringAdministration Dept.

16 Shanghai Urban Studies Project, Vol. 4--Public Transport Report,prepared by Maunsell & Partners, Pty., Ltd., Pak-Poy & Rneebone,Pty., Ltd., with Binnie & Partners, Pty., Ltd., R.J. Naim &Partners, Pty., Ltd. and Coopers & Lybrand.

17 Partly Harnessing Project--Bicycle Ways, Construction Drawings,March 1989, prepared by Shanghai Urban Construction DesignInstitution.

18 Chengdu Roads IAURIF, March 1989.

19 Quyang Residential Quarter on the Rise, July 1986, prepared byShanghai Municipal Residential, Quarters Development Corporation.

20 Minor Reconstruction Proleet for Betterment of Shanghai Het%rolitanTransport--Complement to tihe Nonmotor Vehicle Route Component, June1989, prepared by Shanghai Urban Construction Design Institute(SUCDI).

21 Approach and Road Project of Wusong Road Dam Bridge, June 1989prepared by Shanghai Urban Construction Design Institute (SUCDI).

22 Feasibility Study Report.

23 Figures.

24 Approach and Road Projecti Wusong Road Dam Bridge, South ApproachDesign Drawings (modified), Shanghai Urban Construction DesignInstltute, February 1990.

CHWaawn 1: SHAG hM12M ADCIRY S

o ch

A~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

w~~~*Vo

akftn~~~~~~* fwg a~i u4

dusby &BMltov~~~ EVd bji ctd wy

ILM' ' I b

, I . . . . ._,I

HWHtkl~~~ -8.i

l t n A & _: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~od gm Ch- , __ _ w. _ - ShlWdlhlD>~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~kotfl

EL rmirevsrS w <bCdcn om*

Chart 2: PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND CONSTRUCTION SUPERVISION ARRANGEMENTS

I ,I

|Admlinls;retle P roJect Man;.|

Plannlng Engineering Engineering Construction Materiels Landa a Manag3emnt Supervislon a Requtltion

Finance technology Equipment a Settloemnt

ChiefSupervision

Eng I mnr

Conseruetion

Consu1 t

Reelon > uetIlity _Engineer |1Contractors

Typile1Organization

Supervision

Netot IR*CC - Inner-Ring Road Conetruction CompanyPIU - Project Implmemntatiotn Unit

Chart 3: THE DEMOLMON & RESEREMENT PROCESS

l_ la

.~ .

C H I N A 1I_A

SHANGHAI METROPOLITAN ) - -l

TRANSPORT PROJECT X BAOSHANSHANGHAI METROPOLITAN AREA T. Nf' - DISTRICTI

NO"0I0R Ve e A CTION PROG1M_ I1011OO0 NMV ROUTS BAOSHAN

STING NV ROUTES DISTRICTDFNGHA INNE{lR W4 ROAD, WLs;* t

,1 SulF^cEurvionENn / t NORT- _

0 INRMTEIIoN IMPgOVEMENTS _/E\\_-x 9

C{NWRA1.BUSINESS OWRICT t ^ I -- ;

ROAD3ro N0

RAILROADS~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

K"ls 'DilpiRICT~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Ma 9

zi = ¢~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- IW :K N S

Uw __I

_ -. .~ ,

-~~~~ tl ;

TRANSPORTIMON RL.L STATION o

PARK --

ti

C~~~ ' , - - Jlt \ -~ ~~A _ rh- J a r-~r-~~S 3a _\f';_

* > . .- - -- __ .P4 A RCv v Z < : j. .st

CHINAA

- , . ~ .a5 r- 4-&-~ Jg SHANGHAI METROPOLITANR ~ ~ ~ ~ i~F w r~}~ TRANSPORT PROJECT1J.. Pt7M A -g ow * t t B e]Traffic Management

f ,) - S U U G G Q t 5 TRAFFIC SIGNALS

* [ 3 FIXED TI_ g S - e ' M E-0 FUM~~~~~~~~~~~~ XITN UPG1MED

O O Y S 2 2 z t RA fiRD- g g g ~~~~~~~~~~~~CI-jAN EUATION:

oiw 3 go n M ID BILO C Kt0~~~~~E

CHANr ItE RD. %M

HUHA)PARK

\ ; r > r -w~-

T--NSPORTATON RRI STATION

s -- o-''- vwo h h ,-_ -.

,- 4 N',b -,g%W _t/lf -~

-- ~- \- ;-- ) :uts t @~ ' C H I N A

-SHANGHAI METROPOLITANTRANSPORT PROJECT

Non-Motor Vehicle Action Program

NON-MOTOR VEHICLE ROUTES:

PROPOSED-EX-E CLUSIVE ROUTES

-~--....EXCLUSIVE LANES

CHANG ' ' I w ;

CfALDR9 N'S

w- or&

7TRANSPCV~ATION RLIL STATION

20 ~~~~~~~~PARK

. I_

B3EIJING! RD.

_~~~~~~P ,MA.P

t TSPATAT10N RR STAT10N -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~AR

-~~~~~j

PD. ~ . - 7 AE

-- CHINA,' ,

SHANGHAI METROPOUTANTRANSPORT PROJECT

.. OPLE North-South Corridor Act,on Program

- .,, . . , s ~~- _,,SON BRDGRA

PAPK~~~~

v % ~~U-- -hl;.' .-. -~ ~, * ---- S_ 4 *~X,

0 r>g1--Q-4~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~UO G BRI E -r \ ,hAMGPS:--

-- - o¢w % 4 T>NSPORT~~~~~AMO PROJECPEOE~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C US PRORT , %.1lSC HEMES

~~~~~~- -- - -.- -I/. g -~ _ N G B EBUS - -i -X V

_ < -s 5, _-^ ._^ -- ------- E tF - \ 0~~~~~~~~~~~~BLIWAY

I-IIJ._I-NA- .__-_ AXB RM ON I

-"- ' , ~ ~ ~ ' - , 'r ~ -' ' 4 t. ~ "- ~ vi _ _ w ' } t \, ~ C D fARKP O G A