? ? ! ? ? ! © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 1 ? Evaluating Causal Claims ?
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Transcript of ? ? ! ? ? ! © EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 1 ? Evaluating Causal Claims ?
學生思維訓練課程學生思維訓練課程學生思維訓練課程2© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau
I hope the seat belt sign
is not turned on so
frequently! The plane
shakes so violently every
time it is turned on!
Is there a problem in the child’s reasoning?
學生思維訓練課程學生思維訓練課程學生思維訓練課程3© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 3
Is There a Relationship Between Ice Cream Sales And The Number of Shark Attacks?
Months
Ice CreamSales
0
100
00
200
00
Jan Jul Dec
Months
No. of Shark Attacks
0
4
8
Jan Jul Dec
學生思維訓練課程學生思維訓練課程學生思維訓練課程4© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau
• What is the evidence?
• Is there a bias?
• Is the research approach appropriate?
Is There a Cause And Effect Relationship Between Youngsters Watching Violence Films And Their
Violent Behaviours?
© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 5
Distinguish Between Fact, Opinion and Reasoned Argument
First of all, you should learn to distinguish: Fact Opinion Reasoned Argument
This is Because…
Evidence?
??! ??!6© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau
Good Thinking Requires Information and Reasons
Fact:
Tung Chee Hwa was the first Chief Executive of Hong Kong.
Opinion:
Mr Tung was a good Chief Executive.
Reasoned Argument:
Because of the differential appeals and concerns from different parties, groups and walks of life, the government should try its best to implement a policy that is favourable to all people.
學生思維訓練課程學生思維訓練課程學生思維訓練課程7© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau
I hope the seat belt sign
is not turned on so
frequently! The plane
shakes so violently every
time it is turned on!
Is there a problem in the child’s reasoning?
© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 8
What is Correlation?
Months
Ice CreamSales
0
100
00
200
00
Jan Jul Dec
Months
No. of Shark Attacks
0
4
8
Jan Jul Dec
??! ??!9© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau
What is Correlation?
Is there a relationship between ice cream sales and the number of shark attacks? What kind of relationship is it?
© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 10
What is Correlation?
Ice Cream Sales
No. of Shark Attacks
© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 11
What is Correlation?
B rises when A rises. B falls when A rises.
Does correlation mean a cause and effect relationship?
PositiveCorrelation
NegativeCorrelation
© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 12
Can You Identify the Type of Relationship?
Family Factors
Rebellious Teenager
Rebellious Teenager
Low Levels of Education
When A and B are
correlated
Low Levels of Education
Rebellious Teenager
Low Levels of Education
© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 13
What is Correlation?
CorrelationCause and
Effect Relationship
??! ??!14© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau
Some Examples
Many private tutorial centres publicise the number of their students who got As or even straight As in public examinations.
學生思維訓練課程學生思維訓練課程學生思維訓練課程15© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau
• What is the evidence?
• Is there a bias?
• Is the research approach appropriate?
Is There a Cause And Effect Relationship Between Youngsters Watching Violence Films And Their
Violent Behaviours?
© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 16
Attractive Product Claims
Research Example:
Is laser fat reduction treatment effective?
Results in a week!
100% Safety Approved!
Proven Effectiveness!Money Back
Money Back
GuaranteeGuarantee
© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 17
Attractive Product Claims
What questions would you ask to find out if the treatment is actually effective?
Hints:
Who will be the participants?Can everyone participate in the experiment?
How to choose the participants? Do all participants receive the same treatment?
© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 18
Thinking about Result of Consumer Research
Random Sampling
© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau 19
Thinking about Result of Consumer Research
Laser Fat Reduction Treatment
No Laser Fat Reduction Treatment
Control Experiment
Experimental Group vs. Control Group
??! ??!20© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau
Thinking about Result of Consumer Research
Other Methods of Control•Placebo •Double Blind Study
• Significance of Result (that probably happened not by chance)
??! ??!21© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau
How May Our Thinking Be Affected?
• What is Fallacy?- Errors in Reasoning and Logic
• Common Fallacies• Guilt by Association / Virtue by Association• Popularity & Testimonials• Weak Analogies• Appeals to Tradition
??! ??!22© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau
Guilt by Association andVirtue by Association
• Juvenile delinquent and reputation of school (Guilt by Association)
- If a student commits an offence, people will think that other students from the same school have bad behaviour too.
Can you think of other everyday examples of Guilt by Association and Virtue by Association?
•Favourable teacher and university (Virtue by Association)
- Your favourite teacher graduated from a certain university. Therefore, that particular university must be a good university.
??! ??!23© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau
Popularity & Testimonials
• Cosmetic products• Mobile phones
Can you think of other everyday examples of “Popularity & Testimonials”?
- Celebrity spokespersons and popularity terms such as “best-selling” or “most popular” are often introduced in the adverts of cosmetic products and mobile phones.
??! ??!24© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau
Weak Analogies
• Time spent on sports and study - Athletes train very hard for their successes. If they spend
the same amount of effort on their studies, they will get the same rewarding results.
Can you think of other everyday examples of Weak Analogies?
• A Man’s car and his girlfriend- We can infer the way a man treats his girlfriend from
the way he treats his car.
??! ??!25© EDB; D. Halpern, K. Ku, I. Ho, K.T. Hau
Appeals to Tradition• Husbands should work and wives should be
housewives - According to tradition, husbands are responsible for
earning money and wives are responsible for keeping the household.
Can you think of other everyday examples of Appeals to Tradition?
• School should finish early in summer - Schools used to end early in summer because of the hot
weather and the lack of air-conditioning in schools. Although most schools are now equipped with air-conditioning, we still feel that schools should end early in the summer.