D422Lot1.SMHI.5.1.1B: Detailed workflows of each case-study on … · 2019-02-18 · The results of...

C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B |

Copernicus Climate Change Service

D422Lot1.SMHI.5.1.1B:

Detailed workflows of each case-study

on how to use the CDS for CII

production and climate adaptation

Full Technical Report:

Impact assessment of climate change

on water resources and agriculture to

guide optimal reservoir operation and

best crop management practices

Archana Sarkar1, Surjeet Singh1, Ilias Pechlivanidis2, Survey Daman Sharma1

1National Institute of Hydrology (NIH)

2Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)

REF.: C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI D5.1.1B

C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B |


Summary

Banas river basin is the largest basin in the state of Rajasthan with over 45,000

km2 area. The basin falls in an arid region of the country with very low water

availability and recurrent droughts. Banas is a seasonal river that dries up during

summer. It feeds the Bisalpur reservoir where a dam was constructed during the

year 1999 which is used for drinking water supplies to major cities and irrigation

to the command area downstream. The reservoir faced shortage of water

availability in the recent years impacting the water supplies as well as agriculture

production. This case study explores the effects of climate change on the water

availability in this reservoir and management of cropping schedule for better crop

yield in the command area.

The data provided within the C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI contract, available on the

Climate Data Store (CDS), have been used to produce climate impact indicators

(CIIs). For the analysis, 2 degrees bias corrected monthly precipitation and

maximum temperature data of 18 GCMs for RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 for the historical

as well as future time periods up to 2100 to understand the variability in climate

in future time horizons, were used. The CIIs developed for the Banas basin are

monthly precipitation which provides useful information for the rain-fed crops;

monsoon precipitation which gives an indication of water availability in the

Bisalpur reservoir as it gets its major inflow during the monsoon period; and

mean monthly maximum temperature which provides useful information for the

sowing time of crops for a better yield, especially for mustard & wheat crops.

The mean ensemble results show a likely increase in the monthly as well as

monsoon precipitation for future time horizon up to 2100 which is good for this

semi-arid region. However, the mean ensemble of maximum monthly

temperature also shows a likely increase in the coming years indicating more

evaporation from reservoir and more evapotranspiration from agriculture fields,

thereby enhancing the crop water demands.The State water resources and

agriculture department can use this information for planning adaptation

measures like additional water storage structures for any spillovers during high

precipitation years, artificial groundwater recharge schemes, reducing

evaporation from the reservoir, short duration variety crops, less water intensive

crops and water efficient irrigation technologies like micro-sprinkler and drip

irrigation.


C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B |

Contents 1- Case study description ........................................................................................................ 4

1.1 Issue to be addressed ......................................................................................................... 4

1.2 Decision support to client .................................................................................................. 5

1.3 Temporal and spatial scale ............................................................................................... 5

1.4 Knowledge brokering ........................................................................................................... 5

2- Potential adaptation measures ........................................................................................ 5

2.1 Lessons learnt ........................................................................................................................ 5

2.2 Importance and relevance of adaptation .................................................................... 6

2.3 Pros and cons or cost-benefit analysis of climate adaptation ............................. 7

2.4 Policy aspects ......................................................................................................................... 7

3- Contact ...................................................................................................................................... 8

3.1 Purveyors ................................................................................................................................. 8

3.2 Clients/users ........................................................................................................................... 8

4- Data production and results ............................................................................................. 8

4.1 Step 1: Ensembling Climate Variables ......................................................................... 9

4.2 Step 2: Mapping .................................................................................................................. 10

4.3 Step 3: Adaptation Measures ......................................................................................... 21

5- Conclusion of full technical report ................................................................................ 21

References ......................................................................................................................................... 23


C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B | 4

1- Case study description

Rajasthan is the largest state of India with 10.4% of the country’s area and

5.5% of its population, but only about 1% of the country’s water resources

producing 5.49% of the nation’s total food grains and 21.31% of its oil seeds.

The Bisalpur dam project plays an important role in the economy of the western

Rajasthan region of the Banas river basin providing water for drinking to various

cities and irrigation in the Tonk district. However, the present water resources of

this region are not enough to cater to the needs of the increasing population,

including agriculture and non- agriculture demands and climate change will act

as an additional stressor. Thus, it is vital to assess the effects of climate change

in order to have optimal reservoir operation and adapt to best crop management

practices.

1.1 Issue to be addressed

The Banas River Basin is the largest river basin (45833 km2) within the

Rajasthan State of India. Banas is a seasonal river that dries up during the

summer, but it is nonetheless used for irrigation. Bisalpur drinking water cum

irrigation project is constructed across river Banas with an ultimate irrigation

potential of 55224 hectare (irrigation during the months of October to March for

the Rabi crop), besides providing 458.36 million m3 of drinking water for Jaipur,

Ajmer, Beawar, Kishangarh, Nasirabad and other enroute cities, towns and

villages. An estimated 150 million USD of extra agriculture was produced in

2014-2015. An increase in temperature in this region has been observed from

historical data. This may lead to shortening of the crop growth period, increase in

crop water requirement and reduction in crop yield. The water availability in this

reservoir in coming years will play a crucial role in the overall economy of the

entire region including other socio-economic issues. Following Figure 1 shows

map of the Bisalpur project and photographs from the field showing water

pipelines for transport of drinking water and canals from the reservoir for

irrigation in the command area.

Fig. 1: Map and photographs of Bisalpur Reservoir (upstream and downstream both)


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1.2 Decision support to client

The government of Rajasthan recognised the water resources and agriculture

vulnerability being in the state with one of the lowest adaptive capacity which

makes immediate action on climate change crucial. The Rajasthan State Action

Plan on Climate Change (under Prime Minister Council on Climate Change)

proposes many strategies for state mission on water resources and agriculture

among other sectors. The methods and results generated in the present study

will help the clients namely, Water Resources Department and Agriculture

Department of Rajasthan State in their actions like: (i) Setting up dedicated

facilities with advanced computing systems and customize information on

impacts of climate change for regional water basins/sub basins/watersheds; (ii)

Conducting training programs for government officials to facilitate the

understanding of the impacts of climate change on water resources and

familiarize them with modelling outputs and its significance for decision making;

(iii) Educating farmers about matching land-use systems with water availability

by adopting water efficient practices and low water requiring crops for

agriculture, etc. Moreover, all the information produced within this study will be

open source which will prove to be useful for other socio-economic sectors in

terms of climate change awareness.

1.3 Temporal and spatial scale

The results of this case study will help decision making at a local/regional scale

(approximately 40000 km2 including Banas catchment upto Bisalpur dam and

the downstream irrigation command area). The adaptation measures will be

implemented over 20 years period.

1.4 Knowledge brokering

Field visits have been made to interact with clients and other stakeholders

including farmers. We have presented the objectives of the project to clients and

taken their feedback on the type of CIIs that will help them in their decision

making of reservoir operation and crop management practices.

2- Potential adaptation measures

2.1 Lessons learnt

Rajasthan State’s economy is predominantly agricultural and rural with

fluctuations in the growth rate of the NSDP (Net State Domestic Product)

because of the uncertainties in agriculture as it is almost entirely dependent on

rainfall. The frequency of occurrence of droughts in the Banas basin is once in 4

to 5 years. With a rising demand for water for both agriculture and non-

agriculture purposes the share of water for agriculture is set to reduce to 70% by

2050. Climate change challenges the path of sustainability in the agriculture

sector. Through its direct and indirect impacts - on crop yields, pests and


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diseases, land and water resources - climate change is expected to affect

agriculture through multiple pathways, thereby having an effect on livelihoods

and the overall food security situation in the region.

During our interactions with WRD, Rajasthan, we learnt that irrigation from the

Bisalpur Dam started in 2004 which continued up to 2010. Then due to less

rainfall and less inflow, no irrigation was provided for next four years (2011-

2014). Irrigation resumed during 2015-2016. Then in 2017 irrigation supply was

curtailed to half, only from November to December against normal supply from

November to February due to less inflow (less than normal rainfall in monsoon)

in the Bisalpur reservoir. In the year 2018, again the inflow to the reservoir was

less than normal and no irrigation was provided to the command area in the post

monsoon cropping season of 2018. We also learnt from the Agriculture

department and local farmers that in recent years the yield of mustard crop in

the command area which constitutes about 75% has reduced because of rise in

temperatures. We learnt that the information generated through stakeholder

consultation is very important for development of appropriate CIIs.

2.2 Importance and relevance of adaptation

Climate change is likely to further exacerbate the already strained conditions for

water resources and agriculture in the Banas basin. The present water resources

management practices do not consider the effects of climate change as the

climate impact modelling has not been carried out for this region so far. At

present, the surplus water at the end/during monsoon season every year is

released from the reservoir without any knowledge of future climate and if there

is less inflow in the succeeding year, irrigation supplies is curtailed. The results of

present study about water availability in the Bisalpur dam for future time periods

will help the WRD in the planning of increasing the reservoir capacity if there is

surplus water or bringing water to the reservoir through river interlinking if there

is water deficit as this reservoir is lifeline of some major cities for drinking water

and irrigation in the Tonk district.

Agriculture is a sector that requires constant adaptation in order to maintain

yields. In the drought-prone Tonk district, where communities have learnt to

cope, successive droughts over wider geographic areas, combined with other

stresses are now threatening to overwhelm coping capacity in ways that might

become the norm with climate change. The temperature trends in this area are

on the rise threatening the yields of the major crop, the mustard crop. The

information on future temperature scenarios on monthly and seasonal scales will

be very helpful for the agriculture department for best crop management

practices like, changing the cropping schedule; production of short duration

mustard variety; growing new crops such as vegetables, fodder and higher value

medicinal crops for commercial sale; and growing crops with low water.

Long-term adaptation strategies could be developed on the basis of CIIs

produced using CDS global climate data, and hydrological models, e,g, future

scenarios of water availability will be helpful in improving reservoir operation,


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future scenarios of temperature and precipitation will help in best crop

management practices.

2.3 Pros and cons or cost-benefit analysis of climate adaptation

Manifestations of a changing climate are being observed as the duration of

seasons change. It is observed that summers are expanding and the winters are

shrinking. Temperatures in early March have been on the rise which makes the

cultivation of wheat more challenging. The farmers are facing loss of crop yield

due to rising temperatures and the curtailed irrigation supplies. Decreasing

productivity of crops and livestock animals is also being observed. Decline in

pasture lands and lesser milk cows and buffaloes are being experienced. As a

result of all these changes, the real income is also declined. The increasing

population in the cities are demanding more water from this reservoir for

drinking purpose. The climate adaptation in terms of better management

practices will bring direct benefits like more water for supply to cities and

increased/sustained crop yield as well as indirect benefits in other related socio-

economic sectors.

2.4 Policy aspects

Under the India’s National Action Plan on Climate change (NAPCC), one of the

eight missions, namely National Water Mission, Indian Ministry of Environment

and Forests (MoEF), has developed a common framework that can facilitate the

States to prepare their State Action Plans in line with the broad objectives of the

NAPCC. It has been clearly laid out in the Rajasthan State Action Plan on Climate

change (RAPCC) that the State is highly vulnerable to climate change due to

already existing water scarcity conditions. However, the water rates in the state

do not convey a sense of scarcity among the stakeholders, thereby leading to

increase in water losses and water use inefficiency (http://envfor.nic.in/ccd-

sapcc). Sectoral policies like subsidies for irrigation (power, pumps) and other

inputs in agriculture sector indirectly have adverse impact on water resources.

The environmental cost arising out of wasteful water use practices are not

internalised. The farmers at the head end region of irrigation projects tend to

over irrigate and also shift their cropping patterns towards water intensive crops,

exerting pressure on limited water resources of the state

(http://rajwater.gov.in/sprdws.pdf).

3- Contact

3.1 Purveyors

Archana Sarkar, Surjeet Singh

http://envfor.nic.in/ccd-sapcc

http://envfor.nic.in/ccd-sapcc

http://rajwater.gov.in/sprdws.pdf


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National Institute of Hydrology (NIH), Roorkee, India

3.2 Clients/users

Water Resources Department, Government of Rajasthan, Rajasthan.

4- Data production and results The observed rainfall and temperature data have been collected from the India

Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune and are used in the historical trend

analysis for the study area. Information on crop failures was gathered through

interaction with the local farmers of the study area. The CDS data were used to

develop the CIIs. The water availability is more often falling short in the Bisalpur

reservoir affecting the drinking water supply to major cities and rising

temperatures are resulting in crop failures during the sowing stage of Mustard

crops and milking stage of Wheat crops. These concerns were reported by the

field engineers and farmers of the area which was the main motivation to take up

this study. The aim was to generate scenarios of anticipated climate change

through development of CIIs so that the stakeholders may opt for suitable

adaptation from among the suggested measures to cope with the climate

change. The workflow is presented in Figure 2 below:

Fig. 2: Work Flow

4.1 Step 1: Ensembling Climate Variables

The following data were downloaded: CII (Global), 2.0° x 2.0° resolution bias

adjusted monthly data of 19 model ensemble (max, mean & min) for the current

situation (historical simulation 1971-2010) and for the RCP 4.5 & RCP8.5

experiment for all the three future time periods (2010-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-

2100).

The CIIs developed for the study area, i.e., Banas basin are monthly

precipitation, monsoon precipitation, and maximum monthly temperature. The

http://nihroorkee.gov.in/

http://nihroorkee.gov.in/

http://water.rajasthan.gov.in/wrd


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ensemble of essential climate variables used to calculate the CIIs for both RCPs

4.5 and 8.5 are available in the CDS catalogue.

4.2 Step 2: Mapping

The spatial - temporal variability of the CIIs are mapped in the form of anomalies

(mean, min & max of ensembles) in the future time periods (near century: 2011-

2040, mid-century: 2041-2070, end-century: 2071-2100) with respect to the

reference period (historical: 1971-2000) for both emission scenarios (Moderate:

RCP4.5, High: RCP8.5) and used to understand the variability in climate in future

time horizons. The CIIs developed for the Banas basin are monthly precipitation

for the monsoon month which provides useful information for rain-fed crops;

monsoon (months of June, July, August & September) precipitation which gives

an indication of water availability in the Bisalpur reservoir as it gets its major

inflow during the monsoon period; and mean monthly maximum temperature

which provides useful information for the sowing time of crops (especially

mustard & wheat crops) in order to have a better yield of the crop. The results

presented in the following section mainly contain maps showing anomalies in the

mean ensembles.

Results:

Monthly Precipitation

Figures 3 & 4, present the variability of monthly precipitation using mean

ensemble in Bisalpur reservoir catchment and command area in future time

periods under moderate emission scenario (RCP4.5) and high emission scenario

(RCP8.5) respectively. The observations are given in the following sections.

Variability of Monthly (JJAS) Precipitation under Moderate Emission

Scenario (RCP4.5)

For the mean of ensembles, the maps show very different variability of

precipitation for all the four months. The following sections present the

observations of each month.

Variability of June Month Precipitation under Moderate Emission Scenario (RCP

4.5)

In the month of June, the precipitation in the North West (Ajmer and part of

Tonk districts) of the basin is likely to increase over time due to climate change.

Comparing period 2011-2040 with 1971-2000, the area will receive about 30%

more precipitation. Comparing 2041-2070 vs 1971-2000, the same area is likely

to get only 9% more rainfall. Comparing 2071-2100 vs 1971-2000, the increase

in precipitation may be 25%. For the South West (Rajsamand, Udaipur, part of


C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B | 10

Chittaurgarh and part of Bhilwara districts) part of the basin figures are slightly

different. Precipitation in the period 2011-2040 is likely to be 40% higher than in

the period 1971-2000. Comparing the period 2041-2070 vs 1971-2000 the

increase in precipitation is likely to be very less, namely 3% along with likely

decrease in majority of this part by 3%. Comparing 2071-2100 vs 1971-2000,

there is again increase in participation up to about 23%.

Variability of July Month Precipitation under Moderate Emission Scenario (RCP

4.5)

In the month of July, the precipitation in the North West (Ajmer and part of Tonk

districts) of the basin is likely to decrease in near century and then increase in

mid and end centuries due to climate change. Comparing period 2011-2040 with

1971-2000, the area will receive about 10% less precipitation. Comparing 2041-

2070 vs 1971-2000, the same area is likely to get about 13% more precipitation.

Comparing 2071-2100 vs 1971-2000, the increase in precipitation may be only

7%. For the South West (Rajsamand, Udaipur, part of Chittaurgarh and part of

Bhilwara districts) part of the basin the anomalies are slightly different.

Precipitation in the period 2011-2040 is likely to be 4% lower than in the period

1971-2000. Comparing the period 2041-2070 vs 1971-2000 there is likely

increase in precipitation by about 10%. Comparing 2071-2100 vs 1971-2000,

the increase in participation lowers to about 6%.

Variability of August Month Precipitation under Moderate Emission Scenario (RCP

4.5)

In the month of August, the precipitation in the North West (Ajmer and part of




to get about 16% more precipitation. Comparing 2071-2100 vs 1971-2000, the

increase in precipitation may be 30%. For the South West (Rajsamand, Udaipur,

part of Chittaurgarh and part of Bhilwara districts) part of the basin the figures

are slightly different. Precipitation in the period 2011-2040 is likely to be 10%

higher than in the period 1971-2000. Comparing the period 2041-2070 vs 1971-

2000 the increase in precipitation is likely to be more, namely 25%. Comparing

2071-2100 vs 1971-2000, the increase in participation continues up to about

45%.


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Fig.3: Variability of Monthly Precipitation (mean ensemble) in Bisalpur Reservoir Catchment &

Command Area in Future Time Periods under Moderate Emission Scenario (RCP4.5)

Variability of September Month Precipitation under Moderate Emission Scenario

(RCP 4.5)

In the month of September also, the precipitation in the North West (Ajmer and

part of Tonk districts) of the basin is likely to increase over time due to climate

change. Comparing period 2011-2040 with 1971-2000, the area will receive

about 48% more precipitation. Comparing 2041-2070 vs 1971-2000, the same

area is likely to get about 58% more precipitation. Comparing 2071-2100 vs

1971-2000, the increase in precipitation may be 75%. For the South West

(Rajsamand, Udaipur, part of Chittaurgarh and part of Bhilwara districts) part of

the basin the figures are slightly different. Precipitation in the period 2011-2040

is likely to be 40% higher than in the period 1971-2000. Comparing the period

2041-2070 vs 1971-2000 the increase in precipitation is likely to be less, namely


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35%. Comparing 2071-2100 vs 1971-2000, the increase in participation goes up

to about 85%.

Variability of Monthly (JJAS) Precipitation under High Emission Scenario

(RCP8.5)

For the mean of ensembles, the maps show quite different variability of

precipitation for all the four months of monsoon. The following sections present

the observations of each month.

Variability of June Month Precipitation under Moderate Emission Scenario (RCP

8.5)

In the month of June, the precipitation in the North West (Ajmer and part of

Tonk districts) of the basin is likely to decrease in near century and then increase

in mid and end centuries due to climate change. Comparing period 2011-2040

with 1971-2000, the precipitation in this area is likely to decrease by about 5%.

Comparing 2041-2070 vs 1971-2000, the same area is likely to get about 35%

more rainfall. Comparing 2071-2100 vs 1971-2000, the increase in precipitation

may be 50%. For the South West (Rajsamand, Udaipur, part of Chittaurgarh and

part of Bhilwara districts) part of the basin figures are different. Precipitation in

the period 2011-2040 is likely to be 3% higher than in the period 1971-2000.

Comparing the period 2041-2070 vs 1971-2000 the increase in precipitation is

likely to be 30%. Comparing 2071-2100 vs 1971-2000, there is again increase in

participation up to about 65%.

Variability of July Month Precipitation under Moderate Emission Scenario (RCP

8.5)

In the month of July also, the precipitation in the North West (Ajmer and part of

Tonk districts) of the basin is likely to decrease in near century and then increase

in mid and end centuries due to climate change. Comparing period 2011-2040

with 1971-2000, the precipitation in this area is likely to decrease by about 60%.

Comparing 2041-2070 vs 1971-2000, the same area is likely to get about 20%

more precipitation. Comparing 2071-2100 vs 1971-2000, the increase in

precipitation may be 44%. For the South West (Rajsamand, Udaipur, part of

Chittaurgarh and part of Bhilwara districts) part of the basin the anomalies are

almost similar. Precipitation in the period 2011-2040 is likely to decrease by

about 50% compared to the period 1971-2000. Comparing the period 2041-2070

vs 1971-2000 there is likely increase in precipitation by about 13%. Comparing

2071-2100 vs 1971-2000, the increase in participation is about 35%.


C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B | 13

Fig.4: Variability of Monthly Precipitation (mean ensemble) in Bisalpur Reservoir Catchment &

Command Area in Future Time Periods under High Emission Scenario (RCP 8.5)

Variability of August Month Precipitation under Moderate Emission Scenario (RCP

8.5)

In the month of August, the precipitation in the North West (Ajmer and part of




to get about 40% more precipitation. Comparing 2071-2100 vs 1971-2000, the

increase in precipitation may be 80%. For the South West (Rajsamand, Udaipur,

part of Chittaurgarh and part of Bhilwara districts) part of the basin the figures

are similar but slightly on the lower side. Precipitation in the period 2011-2040 is

likely to be 15% higher than in the period 1971-2000. Comparing the period

2041-2070 vs 1971-2000 the increase in precipitation is likely to be more,


C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B | 14

namely 35%. Comparing 2071-2100 vs 1971-2000, the increase in participation

continues up to about 70%.

Variability of September Month Precipitation under Moderate Emission Scenario

(RCP 8.5)

In the month of September also, the precipitation in the North West (Ajmer and

part of Tonk districts) of the basin is likely to increase over time due to climate

change. Comparing period 2011-2040 with 1971-2000, the area will receive

about 60% more precipitation. Comparing 2041-2070 vs 1971-2000, the same

area is likely to get about 100% more precipitation. Comparing 2071-2100 vs

1971-2000, the increase in precipitation may be 160%. For the South West

(Rajsamand, Udaipur, part of Chittaurgarh and part of Bhilwara districts) part of

the basin the figures are almost similar but on a lower side. Precipitation in the

period 2011-2040 is likely to be 50% higher than in the period 1971-2000.

Comparing the period 2041-2070 vs 1971-2000 the increase in precipitation is

likely 110%. Comparing 2071-2100 vs 1971-2000, the increase in participation

goes up to about 145%.

Monsoon Precipitation

Figures 5 & 6 present the variability of monsoon rainfall in Bisalpur reservoir

catchment and command area in future time periods under moderate emission

scenario (RCP4.5) and high emission scenario (RCP8.5) respectively. The

observations are as follow:

Variability of Monsoon Precipitation under Moderate Emission Scenario

(RCP4.5)

For the mean of ensembles, the maps show that precipitation in the North West

(Ajmer and part of Tonk districts) of the reservoir is likely to increase over time

due to climate change. Comparing period 2011-2040 with 1971-2000, the area

will receive about 21% more precipitation. Comparing 2041-2070 vs 1971-2000,

the same area is likely to get 23% more rainfall. Comparing 2041-2070 vs 1971-

2000, the increase in precipitation may be 32%.

For the South West (Rajsamand, Udaipur, part of Chittaurgarh and part of

Bhilwara districts) part of the reservoir figures are slightly different. Precipitation

in the period 2011-2040 is likely to be 23 % higher than in the period 1971-

2000. Comparing the period 2014-2070 vs 1971-2000 the increase in

precipitation is likely to be a bit less, namely 21%. Comparing 2071-2100 vs

1971-2000, the increase in participation continues up to about 37%.


C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B | 15

Fig.5: Variability of Monsoon Rainfall in Bisalpur Reservoir Catchment & Command Area in Future Time Periods under

Moderate Emission Scenario (RCP 4.5)

Variability of Monsoon Precipitation under High Emission Scenario: RCP

8.5

For the mean of ensembles, the maps show that the likely increase in

precipitation is larger than for RCP 4.5. Comparing period 2011-2040 with 1971-

2000, the area could receive 49% more precipitation. Comparing 2041-2070 vs

1971-2000 similar projections may be expected. Comparing 2041-2070 vs 1971-

2000, the increase in precipitation is likely to be about 69%.

For South West of the reservoir the projections are almost similar to those of the

North West. Precipitation in the period 2011-2040 is likely to be 49 % higher

than in the period 1971-2000. Comparing the period 2014-2070 vs 1971-2000,

the increase in precipitation will be again 49 %. Comparing 2071-2100 vs 1971-

2000, the increase in participation continues up to 73.7 %.


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Fig.6: Variability of Monsoon Rainfall in Bisalpur Reservoir Catchment & Command Area in Future

Time Periods under High Emission Scenario (RCP 8.5)

Monthly Maximum Temperature

Figures 7 & 8 present the variability of monthly maximum temperature (mean of

ensembles) in Bisalpur reservoir catchment & command area in future time

periods under moderate emission scenario (RCP4.5) and high emission scenario

(RCP8.5) respectively. Unlike the dissimilar variability of precipitation in the

northern and southern part of the study basin, the variability of maximum

monthly temperature is uniform in the entire basin for various scenarios. The

observations are as follow:

Variability of Monthly Maximum Temperature under Moderate Emission Scenario

(RCP4.5)

For the mean of ensembles, the maps show that the likely increase in monthly

maximum temperature continuous for the future time period for all the four

months under consideration, i.e., November, December, January and February.

These four months are the main months of cropping in the command area of the

Bisalpur reservoir.


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In the month of November, where the historical mean monthly maximum

temperature is about 30oC, the area could see an increase in temperature by

about 0.4oC during the period of 2011-2040 compared with 1971-2000; an

increase in temperature by about 1.6oC during the period of 2041-2070

compared with 1971-2000; and an increase in temperature by about 2.4oC

during the period of 2071-2100 compared with 1971-2000.

In the month of December, where the historical mean monthly maximum







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Fig.7: Variability of Monthly Maximum Temperature (mean ensemble) in Bisalpur Reservoir

Catchment & Command Area in Future Time Periods under Moderate Emission Scenario (RCP4.5)


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In the month of January, where the historical mean monthly maximum






In the month of February, where the historical mean monthly maximum






Variability of Monthly Maximum Temperature under High Emission Scenario (RCP

8.5)

For the mean of ensembles, the variability of monthly maximum temperature

under high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) is very similar to RCP 4.5 moderate

emission scenarios with enhanced rates of warming.

In the month of November, where the historical mean monthly maximum






In the month of December, where the historical mean monthly maximum






In the month of January, where the historical mean monthly maximum






In the month of February, where the historical mean monthly maximum




C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B | 20





C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B | 21

Fig.7: Variability of Monthly Maximum Temperature (mean ensemble) in Bisalpur Reservoir

Catchment & Command Area in Future Time Periods under High Emission Scenario (RCP8.5)

4.3 Step 3: Adaptation Measures

Adaptation measures for the agriculture and water sector are envisaged based on

the changes in the CIIs and reported back to the stakeholders.

Recent lessons

The recent monsoon years (2017 and 2018) witnessed less inflow in the Bisalpur

reservoir due to which the irrigation supply (from October/November to March)


C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B | 22

to command area was curtailed to 50% during 2017 and no irrigation supply in

2018 which badly affected the crop production and livelihood of the farmers

dependent on the irrigated crops (information supplied from WRD, Rajasthan).

Although the Climate impact indicator in terms of monsoon rainfall shows an

increase in all the coming centuries up to year 2100, the mean monthly

maximum temperature also shows an increase in all the coming centuries up to

year 2100.

Adaptation measures

In view of climate change and rise in temperature, there will be more

evaporation from reservoir and will affect the water availability. Also rise in

temperature will result in more evapotranspiration from agriculture fields which

will enhance the crop water demand. Therefore the following 7 adaptation

measures are suggested to cope with the climate change.

1. Less water intensive crops shall be promoted in order to meet the water

demands.

2. Short duration variety crops can also be promoted.

3. In order to create more storage for catering the higher rainfall and

subsequent higher inflows, increase in dam height will also serve the purpose.

4. Additional water storage structures can be created in the downstream to

store the surplus spillover water during high rainfall years.

5. Water-efficient irrigation technologies like micro-sprinkler and drip

irrigation shall be practised to conserve the loss of water from seepage and

evaporation.

6. Artificial groundwater recharge schemes shall be promoted to conserve the

additional monsoon runoff underground.

7. There is need of awareness raising campaigns on the impacts of climate

change and use of efficient water utilization among farmers and local

communities.

5- Conclusion of full technical report

The study presents the important issues of water availability in Bisalpur reservoir

and changes in temperature in the Banas basin in view of climate change. It

comprises the development of rainfall and temperature CIIs relevant to the study

area and presents mapping of these variables in the study area for future time

periods of the current century up to 2100. The results indicate the variation of

rainfall and temperature during the three time slices. Various adaptation

measures are also proposed to cope with the impact of climate change.

Accordingly, the adaptation measures can be taken by the project authorities in

various parts of the study area. The presented scenarios of CIIs along with the


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proposed adaptation measures will help in enhancing the water availability of

Bisalpur reservoir as well as management and minimizing the crop losses.


C3S_422_Lot1_SMHI – D5.1.1B | 24

References

Rajasthan State Action Plan on Climate Change 2014). Report of Government of

Rajasthan, India. Downloaded from http://envfor.nic.in/ccd-sapcc on 09/09/2017

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