© Datamonitor 1 Global Consumer Trends The 10 mega-trends shaping the future of consumer packaged...

© Datamonitor1

Global Consumer Trends

The 10 mega-trends shaping the future of consumer packaged goods

© Datamonitor2

Agenda

• Introduction

• The 10 mega-trends

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Introduction

• Why global?

• Why consumers?

• Why trends?

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The determinants of consumer behavior

Latent Applied

Thoughts

Actions

Values

Occasions

Attitudes

Behaviors

.

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Rule #1

Trends last at least 10 years

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Distinguishing between trends and fads

Factor Trends Fads

What is driving it?

Substantive drivers e.g.Demographics

LifestylesValues

Technology

Transitory factors e.g.Pop cultureCelebrities

FashionMedia

How accessible is it?

Accessible to the mainstream Limited to a target niche

How broad is it?Crosses product category and industry

boundaries as well as demographic groups

Limited to very specific product categories and rarely crosses

demographic groups

How long it lasts At least 10 years A few seasons at most

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The 10 mega-trends

• Age complexity

• Gender complexity

• Lifestage complexity

• Income complexity

• Convenience

• Health

• Sensory

• Individualism

• Homing

• Connectivity

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Age complexity

Kids growing up young

• Age-specific psychological states among children are contracting, thanks to media and marketing

• Youths aspire to be older:

US Youths: Current age Aspired age

12 17 13 17 14 18 15 18 16 18 17 19

Sources: Developmental Differences in Children and the Challenge of Developmental Compression, Cohen and Cahill, International Journal of Advertising and Marketing to Children; Teenage Research Unlimited

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Age complexity

Kidults – adults acting younger

• Contemporary adult attitudes and behaviors increasingly reflect a youthful disposition

“While the age gap between generations has never been bigger as people have children later in life, the attitudinal gap has never been smaller”

IJMAC, October 2003

Seniors enjoying a 2nd youth

• Wild elderly – retirees who can’t take their age seriously and want to have fun

• Seniors see themselves as 12-15 years younger than they actually areSources: Advertising Age; MORI

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Age complexity

• Products for kids growing up young

– Solero Shots – ‘swigging action’ to mimic adults drinking

– Junior Horlicks – adult brand repositioned for children

• Adults acting younger

– Macleans 40+

– Sun Valley String Cheese ‘with real olives’

– L’Angelica Anti-Age tea

• Ageless marketing

– Evian ‘Makes you feel young at heart’

– Weetabix ‘Energy for Everyone’

– Nescafe Energo - a ‘universal’ fortified coffee drink for energizing mind and body

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Rule #2

For every trend there is a

counter-trend

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Age complexity

Counter-trend: age as identity

• Some seniors are proud of their age

• They want to demonstrate their superior wisdom and abilities – the fact that they have ‘mastered the art of living’

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The 10 mega-trends

• Age complexity




• Convenience

• Health

• Sensory

• Individualism

• Homing

• Connectivity

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Gender complexity

The feminization of society and men

• Increasing economic wealth of women

• Men taking a more active role in parenting

• Metrosexuality among men– “Men have now claimed the right to think and act for themselves.

Trendsetters and celebrities have broken stereotypes giving men the freedom and confidence to revolutionize the image that they want to portray of themselves.” (Brand manager, Parfums Jean Paul Gaultier, quoted in Cosmetics International, July 2003)

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Gender complexity

Counter trend: gender as identity

• Among men:

– Lads’ mags as a backlash to the feminization of society

• Among women:

– Independence from men

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Gender complexity

Counter trend: gender as identity

• Products targeting gender as identity

– Nestle Yorkie bar

– LUNA bars

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The 10 mega-trends

• Age complexity




• Convenience

• Health

• Sensory

• Individualism

• Homing

• Connectivity

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Lifestage complexity

(Millions of Europeans 1995 2000 CAGR 95-00 2005 CAGR 00-05

living as)

Singles 70.4 75.6 1.4% 81.0 1.4%Couples Without Kids 77.5 80.6 0.8% 82.0 0.3%Nuclear Families 154.1 143.9 -1.4% 132.7 -1.6%Single Parent 27.4 28.4 0.7% 29.4 0.7%Empty Nesters 54.5 58.9 1.6% 63.7 1.6%

Overall 383.9 387.4 0.2% 388.8 0.1%

Demographic complexity is creating more fragmented family structures across Europe

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The 10 mega-trends

• Age complexity




• Convenience

• Health

• Sensory

• Individualism

• Homing

• Connectivity

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Income complexity

High income groups spending on ‘anti-luxury’

• Downshifting and simplifying

• Getting a bargain

• Spending on needs and not wants

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Income complexity

Lower income groups spending on luxury on a budget

• Budget Living

• Sacrificial consumption

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Income complexity

• Capitalizing on the increased desire for professionalism

– Max Factor – ‘The makeup of makeup artists’

– Orbit Professional chewing gum

– Pravek’s Herbal Slimming Tea developed by Ayurvedic doctors

• Aspirational products for mid-income consumers

– Wolfgang Puck Soups

– Frozen Dessert soufflés from the Bistro Garden restaurant

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The 10 mega-trends

• Age complexity




• Convenience

• Health

• Sensory

• Individualism

• Homing

• Connectivity

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Convenience: values and attitudes

Fitting in many competing demands on time

83%

60%

40%35%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Family Work Friends Leisure Religion

Percentage of global respondents that

consider the following to very important in

their life

Source: World Values Survey

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Convenience: behaviors

Multitasking

One-stop shopping

Consuming on-the-go

Top-up shopping

Eating light

Grazing

Last-minute planning

Outsourcing

Seeking quick fixes

Pit-stopping

Creating a home from home

Compact living

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-7.3

5.4

-3.2

10.6

-1.7

5.5

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Breakfast Morningsnacking

Lunch Afternoonsnacking

Dinner Eveningsnacking

Change in eating occasions per head per year 2002-2007

Fragmenting eating occasions across Europe

Convenience: behaviors

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Convenience: best practice

• Easy-to-use– Sotoco’s Spoonty is a ‘tea spoon’ to replace the tea bag

– Itoham Foods ready meal comes in a disposable metal pan that acts as the heating pan and the bowl

• Space efficient– Coca Cola’s Fridge Pack Vendor

– Kirin ‘Tarunama’ Ichiban Shibori

• On-the-go innovation– Self-heating Hotcan ready meals

– Aldo's Pizza Bar – pizza to heat in a cup

– Campbell’s Soup At Hand – portable soup

– H2O No Gas water in a slim hip flask with belt clip

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The 10 mega-trends

• Age complexity




• Convenience

• Health

• Sensory

• Individualism

• Homing

• Connectivity

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Health: values and attitudes

Greater value is being placed on healthiness and wellbeing

• Health awareness and concern is growing

• Ageing populations mean greater health concerns

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Health: behaviors

• Exercising

• Adopting regimes

• Dieting

• Seeking nutrition

• Information seeking

• Self-medicating

• De-stressing

• Acting holistically

• Seeking total solutions

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Health: behaviors

Occasional usersLoyal users

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2002 2007

42.6 78.0

166.7

226.3

CAGR

7.8%

Natural and organic food and drink consumers in Europe (m)

Seeking nutrition

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Health: best practice

• Functional drinks and cosmeceuticals:

– Pokka Amino Lemon drink helps the over 50s retain a youthful appearance

– Orchard Maid and Addera Probiotic Drink with a ‘probiotic straw’

– Kanebo Collagen Suplipet drink with collagen

– Inneov fermete skin firming tablets

– SP Marine Super P anti-hypertension drink

– Yakult’s Lemorea anti-hypertension drink

– Benecol cholesterol lowering dairy drink

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Health: best practice

• Better for you food for kids:

– Congelados Patitas – drumstick shaped breaded vegetables

– McCain Smiles pre-cooked in a polyunsaturated oil and are cholesterol free

• Natural health innovation

– Frito-Lay ‘Natural’ snacks

– Asahi’s Aqua Blue made with deep sea water

• Total health solutions

– Wisdom’s YerbaMate Royale natural tea for losing weight, boosting energy and alertness

– Campbell's Ignite Frozen Entree – no artificial flavors; 16 essential nutrients; 2 servings of veg; high in protein

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Rule #3

There are rich pickings when

products satisfy two or more mega-trends

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Health: crossover trends

Health on-the-go

• Putting healthy products into on-the-go formats

– Norwegian Jake's BackPack Lunch in a canister

– Deli Dashers Salad Bowl

– Friesland Breaker yogurt in a resealable pouch

– Jt Aka Oolong RTD tea enriched with vitamins in a resealable bottle can

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The 10 mega-trends

• Age complexity




• Convenience

• Health

• Sensory

• Individualism

• Homing

• Connectivity

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Sensory: behaviors

• Seeking experiences

• Going to extremes

• Seeking sensations

• Exploring new cultures

• Seeking professionalism

• Trading up

• Experimenting

• Seeking authenticity

• Not compromizing

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Sensory: best practice

• New taste sensations

– Authentic: Steaz Green Tea Soda ‘micro-brewed’

– Authentic: Farm Route Food Pot Pie from named farms

– Novel: Strathmore Still Spring Water in chocolate flavor

– Ethnic: Lurpak with Mediterranean herbs

• Flavor cues in packaging

– Pom Wonderful juice in pomegranate shaped bottle

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• Extreme and intense

– Percol Rocket Fuel tea with an ‘explosive caffeine kick’

– Sprite on Fire with an ‘unique burning ginger sensation’

– Magma Cinnamon Schnapps Liqueur with a ‘hot peppery taste’

– Virgin Sours ‘sour soda’

– Herman Goelitz’s Harry Potter ‘yuck flavor sweets’

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• Interactive sensations

– KP Skips with ‘fizz sensation’ that turns tongue yellow

– Nestle’s Jambos – lick jam to reveal picture

– Sakito Juice Drink ‘Thumb it, punch it, drink it’

• Experiential products

– L’Occitane ‘holiday scents’ perfume

– Crest Whitening Expressions

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Sensory: crossover trends

Sensory + Convenience = Fast casual dining

• Fresher, better than quick service restaurants…

• …but quicker, less formal service than full service

• Driving growth in the foodservice industry

Sensory + Health = Mediterranean diet

• Has been promoted as a healthier alternative to traditional diets since the 1960s

• Considered to be tasty as well as healthy, driving it to a value of €117bn in Europe

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The 10 mega-trends

• Age complexity




• Convenience

• Health

• Sensory

• Individualism

• Homing

• Connectivity

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Individualism: behaviors

• Getting rich quick

• Being exclusive

• Living alone

• Being individual

• Multi-lifestyling

• Having it your way

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Individualism: best practice

• Customization innovation

– Jones Soda – create your own labels

– Coca-Cola’s Style-a-Coke shrink wrap system

– Lavazza pod tea bags

– FreshDirect offers a customized online shopping experience

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The 10 mega-trends

• Age complexity




• Convenience

• Health

• Sensory

• Individualism

• Homing

• Connectivity

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Homing: values and attitudes

The value placed on home and family

• Increasing importance of the home

• In the western world there is a growing desire for family life…

• …although family values have remained strong in Asia and Latin America

• Links between home, family and tradition

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Homing: best practice

• Products that offer ‘at-home third place’ experiences

– Kraft Parmesan ‘restaurant-style’ shaker

– Pizza Express restaurant pizzas in supermarkets

– Nichirei Beef Stew based on recipes from Tokyo’s famous Nihonbashi Taimeiken restaurant

– Heineken Beer Tender

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Homing: best practice

• Indulgent products for everyday treating

– Coca-Cola’s Barq’s Floats is a ‘treat’ not a thirst quencher

– Pepsi Vanilla – nostalgic sweet indulgence

– Cadbury’s Almond Biscotti dream with premium ingredients

• Innovation in safety

– Cloud Juice – water bottled from ‘pure rain’

– Black Forest Pearl Mineralwasser – mild, low sodium bottled water “ideal for babies and older people”

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Homing: trend clash

The debits and credits consumer

• Behavior characterized by moving between periods of unhealthy behavior (debits) to healthy behavior (credits)

• Represents a clash between health and indulgence

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The 10 mega-trends

• Age complexity




• Convenience

• Health

• Sensory

• Individualism

• Homing

• Connectivity

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Connectivity: values and attitudes

Beyond family and friends…

• Communities– Community feeling

• Nations– Ethnocentrism

• The world– Environmental concerns

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Connectivity: behaviors

• Being connected

• Replacing family with friends

• Being cool

• Word-of-mouth

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Connectivity: best practice

• Shareable product innovation

– Masterfoods Celebrations

– Doritos ‘Friendchips’

– Eat Smart Vegetable Party Tray

• Products that facilitate connections

– Britvic J2O – ‘fit in with alcohol drinkers’

– Molson Twin Label beer – socializing aid on label

– P&G Pringles with Trivia Pursuit printed on crisps

• Cool packaging

– Asymmetric bottle that ‘evokes the fluidity of water’

– Shasta Shotrz in funky ‘shorts’ design and size

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Connectivity: crossover trends

Connectivity + Homing = Entertaining at home

• Entertaining at home occasions in Europe and the US will grow at 1% p.a.• Related spending will grow at 3-5% p.a.

• Product innovations– Fosters CoolKeg targets the barbecue occasion

– Stella Artois Dining Pack

– Spa Reine Rolling bottled water

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Conclusions

Use the rules

1. Track long-term mega-trends

2. Spot early opportunities amongst counter-trends

3. Find crossovers that combine two or more trends

4. Use fads when they allow you to reinterpret mega-trends

5. Look for unmet needs where consumer behavior is contradictory

© Datamonitor 1 Global Consumer Trends The 10 mega-trends shaping the future of consumer packaged...

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