© BP 2005 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 20051 Primary energy consumption per capita.

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005 1 © BP 2005

Primary energy consumption per capita

2BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005

If everyone had the same lifestyle as UK citizens, we’d need three planets to sustain us.

Energy and Sustainability on Planet Earth

Where are we?

- present supply & consumption

- renewables & drivers for change

- IPCC 2007 reports

What needs to be different?

- mindset

- behaviours

© BP 2005

Reliable data on renewable energy usage

worldwide is difficult to find. The following slides

should be treated with caution.

Caution on renewable statistics which follow . . .

Y


Renewables share of primary energy in 2002

Total primary energy: 410 EJ/year Renewables: 4 EJ/year

OilCoal

GasHydro

Nuclear

Renewables

WindSolar PV

Bio-mass

BiofuelsGeothermal

Solar thermal

Source: Shell 2003

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005 © BP 2005

Increasingly diverse energy supply

EJ

HydroNuclear

Gas

Biofuels

Oil

Coal

Traditional

Solar Thermal

GeothermalSolar PV

WindBiomass

0

250

500

750

1000

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Source: Shell 2002


Rapid growth in renewables . . .

RenewablesCoal Oil HydroGas Nuclear

1990-2000growth (% pa)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Source: Shell 2002


. . . with fastest growth in wind and solar

Source: Shell 2002

Solar PV

Solar Thermal

1990-2000growth (% pa)

Wind Biomass Biofuels Geothermal0

5

10

15

20

25

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005 10

© BP 2005

Consumer electricity price

US JapanGermany

Wholesale electricity price

Cost competitiveness (excl. subsidies) in 2002

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Small Hydro

Wind

Geothermal

Biomass

Ocean Wave

Solar PV

Tidal

Ocean Thermal

Unit cost ($cents/kWh)

Depending onrenewable resourceavailability!

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005 © BP 2005

* Figures based on 10 billion people.Source:adapted from UN 2000, WEC 1994, and ABB 1998.

GJ per capita *

Solar

Wind

Biomass

Hydro

Geothermal

DemandRange in 2050

0

200

400

600

800

1000

N. A

mer

ica

S. A

mer

ica

Euro

pe F

SU

Afri

ca

Mid

dle Eas

t

& N

.Afri

ca Asia

Tot

al

Availability of renewable resources

Ratio of potentially usable solar energy to current primary energy consumption is ~ 9,000


© BP 2005

Source: Shell 2002

Driver

• Environmental:

• Supply issues:

• Technology dev:

• Market structure:

Renewables growth is driven by:

1970’s

Air quality

Security of supply

R&D

Utility supplied

2000+

+ Climate change

+ Self reliance

+ Deployment

Personal choice

Y

y

An energy summary . . .-We are likely to be dependent upon fossil fuels for several decades

- New technologies (CCS, clean coal etc.) can limit CO2 damage, but they’re expensive

- Nuclear might be part of the solution but costs, risks & consequences may outweigh benefits

- Renewables might fill the gap if we re-think our entire energy systems and take energy-saving seriously


Where are we?



- IPCC 2007 reports


- mindset

- behaviours


© BP 2005Source: IPCC, 2001

Variations in Earth’s surface temperature

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Presented by R.K. Pachauri, IPCC Chairand Bubu Jallow, WG 1 Vice Chair

Nairobi, 6 February 2007

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis

Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Presented by R.K. Pachauri, IPCC Chair

andBubu Jallow, WG 1 Vice Chair

Nairobi, 6 February 2007


© BP 2005

100 0.0740.018

50 0.1280.026

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000

Period Rate

Years /decade


© BP 2005

Changes in Precipitation, Increased Drought

• Significantly increased precipitation in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia

• The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas

• Drying in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia

• More intense and longer droughts observed since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics.

• Source: IPCC 2007

Changes in Precipitation, Increased Drought

• Significantly increased precipitation in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia.

• The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas - consistent with warming and increases of atmospheric water vapour

• Drying in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia.

• More intense and longer droughts observed since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics.

© BP 2005

“Imagination is more important than knowledge”

Albert Einstein

YGlaciers and frozen ground are receding

Area of seasonally frozen ground in NH has decreasedby 7% from 1901 to 2002

Increased Glacier retreat since the early 1990s

© BP 2005


Albert Einstein

Y

Attribution

• are observed changes consistent with

expected responses to forcings

inconsistent with alternative explanations

Observations

All forcing

Solar+volcanic

© BP 2005


Albert Einstein

Y

• Snow cover is projected to contract

• Widespread increases in thaw depth most permafrost regions

• Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic

• In some projections, Arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st century

PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATEIN CLIMATE

© BP 2005


Albert Einstein

Y

1180 ppm ICE AGES

280 ppm INTERGLACIALS

GOOD

50/50

ZERO

BELOW 2oC

DESTINATIONVENUS

“AN INCONVENIENT

TRUTH”

380 ppm

450 ppm

?

X

550 ppm

© BP 2005


Albert Einstein

Y

9

450ppm ? ?

550ppm 60% reduction in CO2 by 2050

450ppm 85/ 90% reduction in CO2 by 2050

© BP 2005


Albert Einstein

Y

36

“The world is on the brink of a vast and mostly

unpleasant change that may mark the end of our

present civilization.”

Jim Lovelock

© BP 2005


Albert Einstein

Y

37

Destination Venus?

96% CO2

© BP 2005

Read the Stern Report, February 2007

commissioned by HM Treasury.

“The costs of strong & urgent action on climate

change will be less than the costs thereby

avoided“

Still sceptical about climate change ?

Y

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk


Where are we?



- IPCC reports


- mindset

- behaviours


Mindset

- radical changes in western lifestyles are possible & desirable

- there are enormous opportunities (as well as threats for those not prepared to change)


Mindset

- radical change is possible & desirable

- there are enormous opportunities (as well as threats for those not prepared to change)

AND

a coherent lead from governments, businesses and individuals is

required

A different mindset . . .

- A low carbon society is achievable & desirable

(Energy has only been cheap because we’ve ignored many of the costs)

- Define long-term goals (e.g. reduce CO2 by at least 20% by 2020 and 60% by 2050) and set policy and management to achieve them


- A low carbon society is achievable & desirable

(Energy has only been cheap because we’ve ignored many of the costs)

- Define long-term goals (e.g. reduce CO2 by at least 20% by 2020 and 60% by 2050) and set policy and management to achieve them

- Illuminate & connect consumers and producers

- Tackle behavioural as well as technical issues


Discard out-dated ideas, myths and habits

For example:

- economic growth is a sine qua non

- energy and water are cheap

- wealth = happiness

- car purchase choices are mainly about transportation

- cheap air travel is desirable



(e.g. economic growth is a sine qua non; energy and water are cheap; wealth=happiness; car purchase choices are mainly about transportation; cheap air travel is desirable etc.),

Apply systems (holistic or SD) thinking to all policies and major decisions, and



(e.g. economic growth is a sine qua non; energy is cheap; car purchase choices are mainly about transportation; cheap air travel is desirable etc.),

Apply systems (SD) thinking to all policies and major decisions, and

Work on BOTH individual consumer choices AND government & business action.

© BP 2005

We are all part of the problem.

We ALL need to get engaged in being part

of the solution.

TODAY

ConclusionY

Some pointers for individual action:

Reduce waste:

- www.energysavingtrust.org.uk

- www.carbontrust.co.uk

- www.wascot.org.uk www.ecodyfi.org.uk

Buy more locally produced food

Drive less, train, bus, walk or cycle more

Fly less, video- or tele-conference more

Holiday in Scotland – nowhere is more beautiful.

© BP 2005

www.ipcc.ch www.realclimate.org

www.climatecrisis.net

www.sd-commission.org.uk www.forumforthefuture.org

www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/

www.solonline.org www.thinking.net

www.bp.com www.shell.com

Some useful reference points . . .


Where are we?



- IPCC reports


- mindset

- behaviours

D I S C U S S I O N

© BP 2005 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 20051 Primary energy consumption per capita.

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