© 2015 IHS IHS ENERGY ihs.com US Coal Market Update Presentation to the Tennessee Mining...

© 2015 IHS

IHS ENERGY

ihs.com

US Coal Market UpdatePresentation to the Tennessee Mining Association

Jim Thompson, Director, North American Coal; +1 865 588 0645; [email protected]

Market Briefing

November 2015

2© 2015 IHS

US Steam Coal Market Update | November 2015

The big picture

© 2015 IHS


The fundamental issue: Gas is outcompeting most coals, and even taking significant PRB demand

• Coal-gas competition dynamics should remain similar to their current situation through most of 2016.• PRB coal will continue to be displaced

until stronger gas pricing kicks in in 2017.

• El Niño would drive strong coal-to-gas displacement through the winter. • A mild El Niño winter would significantly

reduce gas demand, mostly because of lost heating demand.

• The gas market would attempt to get some of this demand back by displacing PRB coal in the power market, pushing gas prices to around $2/MMBtu if the winter were to indeed be mild.

3

CAPP NAPP ILB PRB1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

MISO

MISO

MISO

MISO

SPP

SPP

ERCOT

Southeast

Southeast

Southeast

WECC

NYNE

NYNE

PJMPJM

PJM

PJM

Coal-to-gas delivery economics for 2016

Bre

ak-e

ven

nat

ura

l g

as p

rice

($/

MM

Btu

)

IHS Energy Henry Hub gas price outlook range, 2016

Notes: MISO = Midcontinent Independent System Operator; NYNE = New York and New England; SPP = Southwest Power Pool. Coal price adjusted to gas equivalent (10,250 btu/kWh coal versus 8,000 btu/kWh gas).Source: IHS Energy © 2015 IHS

© 2015 IHS


Coal is losing the new-build battle to gas: as coal units progressively retire they are replaced with other fuels

• Even as gas prices increase and more coal units outcompete gas, this issue will linger. Need >$8-9/MMBtu before new coal is cheaper than gas.

• CCGTs have better new build economics even before any consideration of carbon cost

• Fairly steady demand for the remainder of the decade.• Few retirements for the

remainder of the decade means that demand will hold fairly steady.

• Clean Power Plan will drive a steady decline thereafter. • Once CPP compliance begins in

2022, assuming no delay, the demand decline rate will rise. It will increase again when final compliance occurs in 2030.

4

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2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Imported coal

Alaska

Lignite

Rockies

PRB

ILB

SAPP

NAPP

CAPP

Utility coal consumption

An

nu

al c

on

sum

pti

on

(M

Mst

)

Source: IHS Energy © 2015 IHS

© 2015 IHS


Exports will grow – but much slower than before

Modest, regionally variable export growth in the longer term

• Imports will hold steady before ultimately weakening. • Long-term decline in imports will be punctuated by occasional spikes owing to domestic shortage or international oversupply.

• Import demand grows in Asia—although not in China—while European import demand declines from around 2020. • New power plant construction throughout Asia will continue to spur strong Asian demand growth.

• The United States’ ability to feed that demand remains limited, owing partly to geography and partly to a strong outlook for the US dollar relative to the currencies of Australia, South Africa, and Indonesia.

• The decline in global LNG prices has started to raise questions about coal-gas competition in Asia. If LNG prices continue to fall, this could start to curtail coal demand meaningfully.

• Meanwhile, European import demand will start to shrink around the turn of this decade as the continent steadily moves away from coal relative to historical demand, due to increased environmental regulation.

• West Coast exports are expected to grow – IF West Coast Terminal capacity can be built. • We continue to expect export growth via the West Coast, initially through Canadian terminals and then through terminals on

the US West Coast.

• The market is solid for PRB coal in South Korea and Japan, but limited elsewhere. In the long term, economics for PRB coal work into those two countries.

• The big question remains on whether US West Coast terminals can be built. Our outlook is that if they can be permitted, the market and economics will drive construction. Our base case expectation is for some new Pacific Northwest capacity; but unless the Morrow Pacific project wins its appeal against a denied permit, it will not be until the early 2020s, and there is risk of none being built. Importantly, our outlook calls for volumes that can be shipped entirely through British Columbia, albeit at worse economics.

5

© 2015 IHS


Exports: No rebound until international oversupply cured

• Weak current demand for US coal• The oversupply in the international

market will take at least until 2017 to resolve, and until then coal buying is curtailed.

• With competition from Colombian, South African, and Russian coal, few of the relatively limited purchases will be of US coal.

• Metallurgical exports are also caught in the headwinds of a strong US dollar.

• This will drive a weak 2016 for US exports.

• Some strength from 2017• There is very limited upside for US

exports in 2017, and only then because of steady destocking at European utilities. However, CAPP thermal exports are declining and will reach zero likely late this decade, and the outlook for NAPP thermal exports seems little better. Only ILB has any upside in the Atlantic, and its upside is limited by being essentially stuck in the German and UK markets—the latter of which is in decline—and in Latin America and as a petcoke substitute, neither of which have major upsides.

6

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2008

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2011

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2016

2017

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0

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40

60

80

100

120

140

Rockies met

SAPP met

NAPP met

CAPP met

Alaska thermal

Rockies thermal

PRB thermal

ILB thermal

NAPP thermal

CAPP thermal

Coal exports


An

nu

al e

xpo

rts

(MM

st)

© 2015 IHS


Production: Stronger decade, but long-term down trend

• Weak 2016 before recovery in 2017 • In 2016, weak demand and weak

exports will push production lower than current levels, reaching new lows.

• However, stronger gas prices and destocked utilities will drive a need for more coal from producers in 2017. With stable demand and export levels during 2018–21, coal producers will enjoy five years of slightly growing production.

• Downtrend to resume in 2022• With the CPP pulling down domestic

demand, and fewer US coal exports going to Europe, the downtrend in production will resume from 2022.

7

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2011

2012

2013

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2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

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2037

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2040

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Lignite

Rockies met

Rockies thermal

PRB thermal

ILB thermal

SAPP met

SAPP thermal

NAPP met

NAPP thermal

CAPP met

CAPP thermal

Coal production

Notes: Met = metallurgical.Source: IHS Energy © 2015 IHS

An

nu

al p

rod

uct

ion

(M

Mst

)

8© 2015 IHS


Near term outlook

© 2015 IHS


Near term themes

Mild winter risk

• El Niño winter would bring weak coal demand. • The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is expecting the current strong El Niño to persist well into and

possibly through the winter. This would cause a mild winter across the northern half of the country and the East and West Coasts, slightly offset by a cooler-than-normal winter along the Gulf Coast.

• El Niño fears have been the primary driver of recent gas prices around $2/MMBtu.

• IHS Energy estimates that should an El Niño–driven mild winter occur, it would lead to a loss of almost 20 million short tons (MMst) of demand from November through March.

• A mild winter would stimulate additional production cuts, likely from January, since utility contracts roll off 31 December. Increased exports and forced burns are much less likely.

• It would also delay rebalance. Our base case (normal weather) outlook for rebalance is late 2016 for most basins. A mild winter, even allowing for further production cuts, would push rebalance into first quarter 2017.

Bankruptcies and Mergers & Acquisitions

• Industry will look very different in 12 months from how it looks today• Patriot

• Alpha

• Walter Energy

• Others?

9

© 2015 IHS


10

Production slowly rationalizing: slowdown has continued in October

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

18000000

Production 12-month moving average

CAPP: Historical and outlook coal production

Mon

thly

pro

duct

ion

(MM

st)

Source: US Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), US Energy Information Adminis-tration (EIA) © 2015 IHS

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0100000020000003000000400000050000006000000700000080000009000000

10000000110000001200000013000000


NAPP: Historical and outlook coal production

Source: MSHA, EIA © 2015 IHS

Mon

thly

pro

duct

ion

(MM

st)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000


ILB: Historical and outlook coal production


Mon

thly

pro

duct

ion

(MM

st)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000


PRB: Historical and outlook coal production


Mon

thly

pro

duct

ion

(MM

st)

© 2015 IHS 11


Weak exports: unlikely to be an outlet valve like in 2012

• August exports strengthen since May. Despite stronger exports, most of the upside was in metallurgical coal. Thermal exports rose, but only 0.2 MMt, relative to a 1.0 MMt month-on-month increase in metallurgical exports.

• No near-term upside. Despite the uptick in exports, near-term exports are weak. Lineups and loading reports at Hampton Roads, Virginia, have been steady to declining slightly, and falling production in September and October similarly point to weaker exports.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

East Coast Gulf Coast West Coast Canada Mexico

Thermal coal exports by coast/border


Mo

nth

ly e

xpo

rts

(MM

t)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

Asia Indian Ocean Africa Europe Americas

Thermal coal exports by destination


Mo

nth

ly e

xpo

rts

(MM

t)

© 2015 IHS 12


Coal stockpiles: High but declining. Absent a mild winter, we should reach rebalance in late 2016

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

50

100

150

200

Imports

Alaska

Lignite

Rockies

PRB

ILB

SAPP

NAPP

CAPP

US utility coal stockpiles, historical and outlook

Mil

lio

n s

ho

rt t

on

s (M

Mst

)

Notes: SAPP = Southern Appalachia.Source: IHS Energy © 2015 IHS

© 2015 IHS


13

Exports: Uneconomic, even with discounts

• US–Europe spread steady• Europe remains out of the

money for US exports from both the East and Gulf Coasts.

• Even discounts, given fairly commonly for ILB and NAPP coal, are not sufficient to strengthen thermal exports.

• European oversupply is not conducive for much buying demand from any thermal exporter.

Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15505560657075808590

-20-1001020304050

Arbitrage CAPP delivered IHS McCloskey NW Europe Marker

Arb

itra

ge

(US

do

llar

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)

CAPP delivered to Europe via East Coast


US

do

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Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15

-40

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CAPP Arbitrage ILB Arbitrage CAPP deliveredIHS McCloskey NW Europe Marker ILB delivered (undiscounted)

Arb

itra

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do

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)

ILB and CAPP delivered to Europe via Gulf Coast


US

do

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s p

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on

© 2015 IHS


Imports: Continued weak outlook

• Imports will continue to decline.• Amid the downturn, Colombian

imports will remain viable in times of domestic shortage, particularly when international prices are weak.

• The import arbitrage is currently open, but with domestic stockpiles high and the possibility of a mild winter, import deals are few.

14

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Colombian-CAPP arbitrage Colombian CAPPILB

Arb

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(US

do

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)

CAPP versus Colombian coal, delivered to coastal Florida


US

do

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on

© 2015 IHS


Prices: Upside to Cal 17 prices

• We expect a weaker gas outlook for 2017 and 2018. • IHS Energy is now calling for a

$2.99/MMBtu (nominal) average for Henry Hub in 2017 and 2018.

• Although that price will be sufficient to return displaced PRB coal in Texas and the Southeast to economic status, it will not be sufficient for ILB coal to regain any market share from gas.

• Stronger Cal 17 pricing? • At a 2017 gas price of $3.11/MMBtu we

saw around 30 MMst of extra coal demand relative to 2016 levels, but we now see only an additional 20 MMst.

• However, with rebalance likely to occur in late 2016 or early 2017, we definitely expect significant extra buying from utilities that will need to get from producers the portion of coal they are currently pulling from their stockpiles. As a result, we anticipate stronger 2017 pricing.

• See the accompanying MS Excel file for our complete coal price forecasts.

15

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

NAPP (13,000; 4.0) CAPP (12,500; 1.5) ILB (11,800; 5.0) PRB (8,800; 0.8)

Rockies (11,700; 0.8)

Coal prices

FO

B m

ine

pri

ce (

real

201

3 d

oll

ars

per

sh

ort

to

n)

Notes: (#,#) = (heat content in Btu per lb, sulfur content in lb sulfur dioxide per MMBtu.Source: IHS Energy © 2015 IHS

16© 2015 IHS


Coal basin supply and demand outlooks

Note: For details or subscription information, please contact James Stevenson. [email protected]; +1 617 914 0230.

mailto:[email protected]

© 2015 IHS 17


Balance: US coal supply and demand

US coal supply and demand balance (MMst) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Production 1,145 1,172 1,074 1,084 1,097 1,020 986 1,002 926 807 905 915 926 930Imports 36 34 22 19 13 9 9 13 12 8 6 6 6 6

Utility demand 1,018 1,041 950 961 934 825 847 849 787 747 791 788 799 801Industrial demand 83 80 64 73 70 66 67 66 65 64 63 62 61 60

Metallurgical exports 32 43 37 56 70 70 66 63 48 36 43 46 46 48Thermal exports 27 39 22 25 38 56 52 34 30 24 25 26 28 29Total exports 59 81 59 82 107 126 118 97 78 60 68 71 74 77

Utility stockpiles 148 162 189 175 172 185 148 151 159 105 96 98 98 97

Note: For greater detail, see accompanying Excel file.

Sources: IHS Energy, MSHA, EIA, US Customs © 2015 IHS

Key changes to supply-demand outlook

• Changes to 2016 production reflecting current oversupply and significant roll-off of contracts at the end of this year.

• Near term stockpile, consumption and export updates.

© 2015 IHS


18

CAPP: Fundamentals improving; price reaction slowShort-term outlook

• CAPP production is slowly rationalizing. Contract roll-off will drive further production cuts after 31 December.

• Rebalance will be in very late 2016. Buying before then will drive slow price upside, but a return to cost for prices will not occur until 2017. We remain bullish because prices remain well below cost, but temper our expectations for near-term upside owing to the high stockpile situation.

• There is significant risk of a delay to the timing of rebalance if El Niño drives a mild winter.

J F M A M J J A S O N D

0

5

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15

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25

30

35

40

Series1 Range, 2007–13 2014 2015 2016

CAPP stockpiles


MM

st


0

50

100

150

200

250

Series1 Range, 2007–13 2014 2015 2016

CAPP days cover


Day

s co

ver

© 2015 IHS 19


CAPP: Steady demand declineLong-term outlook

• CAPP’s relevance to the US thermal market is dwindling, with 2020 domestic demand now expected to be slightly above 20 MMst, barely an eighth of 2007 levels. Industrial demand has held steadier but is also declining. And it will become irrelevant to the international market around 2020.

• CAPP’s longer-term future is tied to the global metallurgical coal market, but the strong US dollar (current and outlook) will limit this competitiveness. Although we continue to see a home for US metallurgical coal in Europe, we now expect steady metallurgical exports (after weak years in the near term), a stark change from the growth we expected at the start of the year.

CAPP coal supply and demand balance (MMst)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

ProductionMetallurgical 47 57 48 51 60 55 53 52 41 33 30 33 32 32

Thermal 178 177 146 132 124 93 75 66 52 42 44 37 36 32Total 225 234 195 183 184 148 128 117 92 74 74 70 69 65

Consumption Utility demand 173 177 134 126 105 69 57 54 46 37 33 27 27 24

Industrial demand 28 27 22 25 24 22 22 23 22 22 21 21 21 20Total 201 204 155 151 129 91 80 77 68 59 55 48 47 45

ExportsMetallurgical 20 25 23 31 40 40 40 34 23 17 20 20 20 20

Thermal 2 7 6 6 12 20 17 10 5 3 2 2 1 0Total 22 32 30 37 52 60 57 45 27 20 22 22 22 20

Utility stockpiles 25 23 33 27 29 27 18 14 10 6 3 3 3 3Days cover 49 41 88 67 93 99 74 107 81 63 44 44 44 44Note: For greater detail, see accompanying Excel file.


© 2015 IHS


20

NAPP: Stockpiles slowly declineShort-term outlook

• Stockpiles continue to fall slowly.

• Rebalance will not be until fourth quarter 2016. The basin is at the highest risk from El Niño given its northern burn locations. Any weak demand due to mild weather will delay rebalance and drive further production cuts as utility buying slows.

• We expect weak pricing to continue in 2016, but with some upside from current levels as utilities gradually increase buying as stockpiles fall further, assuming no mild winter. A mild winter will probably hold 2016 prices near current levels. We are bullish on 2017 prices.


0

5

10

15

20

25

Series1 Range, 2007–13 2014 2015 2016

NAPP stockpiles


MM

st


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Series1 Range, 2007–13 2014 2015 2016

NAPP days cover


Day

s co

ver

© 2015 IHS 21


NAPP: Slow decline could get fasterLong-term outlook

• NAPP has a bleak long-term outlook, given uneconomic dispatch relative to natural gas.

• Despite better economics and a flurry of recent builds, the outlook for combined-cycle gas turbine builds in NAPP-burning areas (primarily PJM) is fairly weak. This is currently the saving grace for NAPP coal, which would otherwise face a faster downturn in demand. However, it is a vulnerable position, and any new gas generation will displace coal.

NAPP coal supply/demand balance (MMst)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Production

Metallurgical 25 26 24 27 28 27 26 25 20 18 24 25 25 25Thermal 107 109 102 103 105 100 98 110 99 90 98 97 98 96

Total 132 135 127 130 133 127 125 135 119 109 123 121 122 121Consumption

Utility demand 95 95 93 93 88 82 88 93 85 81 88 86 87 87Industrial demand 24 23 19 21 20 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 18 17

Total 119 118 111 114 109 101 107 112 104 99 106 104 105 104Exports

Metallurgical 5 9 6 15 20 20 15 14 15 13 13 14 14 14Thermal 7 6 4 3 5 5 5 4 5 3 3 3 3 3

Total 12 15 9 18 25 25 19 18 20 17 17 17 17 17Utility stockpiles 12 15 21 19 18 19 18 23 18 11 11 11 11 11Days cover 41 46 73 54 83 97 45 70 69 43 44 44 44 44



© 2015 IHS 22


ILB: Upside, but not in the near termShort-term outlook

• Low demand due to low-cost gas will likely not be alleviated until 2019.

• Oversupplied international market is driving weak exports.

• Weak domestic buying is due to high stockpiles.

• Rebalance will not occur until fourth quarter 2016 or first quarter 2017.

• Gradual upside to prices is expected from mid-2016 as utility stockpiles approach normal levels and utility buying strengthens.


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Series1 Range, 2007–13 2014 2015 2016

ILB stockpiles


MM

st


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Series1 Range, 2007–13 2014 2015 2016

ILB days cover


Day

s co

ver

© 2015 IHS 23


ILB: Good medium-term prospects remainLong-term outlook

• As gas prices gradually strengthen from 2019, more ILB units will find themselves in the money.

• Additional demand results from CAPP displacement and to a lesser degree from other US coals (8 MMst of PRB coal, likely from later this decade).

• After a healthy medium term, the basin will go into decline. While its dispatch position relative to natural gas will strengthen, steady retirements will drive lower demand from the early 2020s.

• Exports will grow in the medium term, but not much, and they too will decline as UK demand for ILB coal shrinks. There should be a solid export base load for a long time in Germany, provided the country does not further regulate itself away from coal. However, there is little upside once this decade is passed. The other homes for ILB coal will be in Latin America, where coal demand growth rates will be steady but slight, and as a substitute for petcoke at certain generators (mostly also in Latin America).

• Exports to India are not expected to be a major feature of ILB coal, primarily because of the strong US dollar and weak currencies of competitor countries.

ILB coal supply/demand balance (MMst)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Production 96 99 102 105 117 128 132 137 130 122 149 153 157 159Consumption

Utility demand 84 88 89 91 98 100 108 121 112 114 130 135 139 141Industrial demand 12 11 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8

Total 95 100 98 101 107 109 117 131 121 123 138 143 147 149Exports 4 7 3 3 9 15 13 6 9 7 8 9 10 10

Utility stockpiles 10 9 14 15 15 19 21 21 22 14 16 17 17 17Days cover 40 35 54 60 64 57 59 59 65 39 44 44 44 44



© 2015 IHS 24


PRB: Production falls to weakest levels since JulyShort-term outlook

• During October, weekly railcar loadings of PRB coal have progressively shrunk, and are now at levels not seen since July. With the downward trend, high stockpiles, weak buying, and the growing possibility of a mild winter, production will continue to decline. Contract roll-off on 31 December will likely further stimulate cuts.

• We believe that lost production from flooding in June has now been fully made up.

• We maintain our bullish outlook for 2017 PRB pricing, owing to utilities having fully destocked by then, and stronger gas pricing.


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Series1 Range, 2007–13 2014 2015 2016

ILB days cover


Day

s co

ver


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Series1 Range, 2007–13 2014 2015 2016

PRB days cover


Day

s co

ver

© 2015 IHS 25


PRB: Good economics relative to natural gasLong-term outlook

• After being hit by coal-to-gas displacement this year and in 2016, stronger gas prices should spell the end of long-term PRB displacement by gas. Some plants will remain at risk during times of low gas prices, but these will become fewer and fewer as gas prices rise faster than coal prices from late this decade.

• As a true base-load coal, from 2017, PRB coal will be much more manageable from the perspective of buying coal and running the plant as opposed to plants burning other coals.

• We maintain our expectation for export growth. This could start as soon as 2017 if the Morrow Pacific project can get up and running, but significant growth will likely not occur until the early 2020s.

PRB coal supply/demand balance (MMst)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Production 480 496 456 473 468 425 416 426 415 336 388 398 404 412

Consumption Utility demand 446 465 443 462 457 404 427 411 385 361 386 388 391 396

Industrial demand 6 5 4 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4Total 452 470 448 467 462 408 432 416 389 365 390 392 395 400

Exports 13 17 7 11 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 8 12

Utility stockpiles 80 89 83 78 86 94 70 73 60 60 60 60 60 60Days cover 62 73 64 63 83 77 54 71 49 51 51 54 53 51



IHSTM ENERGY

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