Inference about a population proportion BPS chapter 20 © 2006 W.H. Freeman and Company.
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency Open Book Scenarios Workshop 2 Richmond 2-3 October 2006.
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Transcript of © 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency Open Book Scenarios Workshop 2 Richmond 2-3 October 2006.
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Open Book ScenariosWorkshop 2 Richmond
2-3 October 2006
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Binder Filing Instructions1. Place pages 9 and 10 at end of
Master Contents list (before Tab1)2. Replace pages 5-1 – 5-3 with new
pages 5-1 and 5-23. Place ‘Workshop 1 Report’ after
Tab 10 (Pages 10-1 – 10-35)4. Place ‘Workshop 2 Pre-Reading’
after Tab 11 (Pages 11-1 – 11-17)5. Place ‘Workshop 2’ after Tab 12
(Pages 12-1 – 12-30)
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
The Next Two Days
Melanie
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Day One
1. Map Conversations2. Rate and Rank Critical IMPAXES3. Develop Influence Maps of
Nine Plausible Worlds 4. Create and Share Internally
Consistent Worlds
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Day Two
5. Thought Leader Challenge to Indicative Worlds
6. Generating and Synthesising Indicative Worlds (Proto-Scenarios)
7. Develop Timelines of theseProto-Scenarios
8. Craft Basic Scenario Narratives
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency Learning to be Strategic
EPISODE 3
Challenges Scenarios
Designs Testing
Scenario
Narratives
EPISODE 2Learning to Generate
Scenarios
INSPECT
Influences
Environmental
Critical
Logics
Uncertainties
Scenario
Scenario Planning as an integrated ‘Structured Episode’ Experiential Learning Process
Identification
EPISODE 1
Learning to Identify and Focus Issues
Question
Design
Analysis
Framing
Key Factor Issues
Plausible
Strategy Strategic
Strategic
Question
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Hundreds of Different Influences
From
Eight Easy Stepsin
to Four Different Scenario
Narratives
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
SESSION 1:BRINGING OURSELVES
UP TO SPEED
Richard
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Mapping the move from hundreds to fifty
KEY
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Analysing the Maps: A ‘Meta’ Activity
KEY
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
SESSION 2:Renewing, reviewing and rating
the IMPAXES
Oliver
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
The IMPAX MatrixHIGHEST
LOWEST
LOWEST HIGHEST
IMPACT
UNCERTAINTY
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
HIGHEST
LOWEST
LOWEST HIGHEST
IMPACT
UNCERTAINTY
The IMPAX Matrix
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Please record your group colour and notes on the
table sheet provided
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
SESSION 3:Developing critical
influence maps
Howard
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Influence Mapping
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Please record your group colour and notes on the
table sheet provided
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Future Present
From Influence Map to Plausible World
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Please record your group colour and notes on the
table sheet provided
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
SESSION 4:Presenting Plausible Worlds
Melanie
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Presenting Plausible Worlds
• Listen to each presentation.
• Discuss the presentation.
• Note ‘closeness’ to your world.
• Decide on a closeness rating.
• Record your rating
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Please record your group colour and notes on the
table sheet provided
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Tomorrow’s process will demand clear heads
so, tonight, please be cautious.
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Day Two
5. Thought Leader Challenge to Indicative Worlds
6. Generating and Synthesising Indicative Worlds (Proto-Scenarios)
7. Develop Timelines of theseProto-Scenarios
8. Craft Basic Scenario Narratives
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
SESSION 5:Critical Reflection
Melanie
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Critical Reflection• Recall – what you have learnt (cognition)
• Relive – new ways of learning and thinking, and their impact (metacognition)
• Re-interpret – insights about the meanings you construct (epistemic cognition)
• Respond – action on reflection
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
SESSION 6:Views from Thought Leaders
and Plenary Discussion
Oliver
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Thought Leader Challenge• Danny Kennedy, Campaign Manager of Greenpeace• Dr Helen Caldicott, author of Nuclear Power is not the
Answer• Jay Ogilvy, GBN futurist• Jim Kunstler, author of The Long Emergency• Mary MacLeod, Director of National Family & Parenting
Institute UK• Dr Terry Turney, Director of Australian CSIRO
Nanotechnology Centre• Wendy McCarthy, Director of McCarthy Management• John Peterson, President of the Arlington Institute US
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
SESSION 7:Generating Indicative
Worlds (Proto-Scenarios) through synthesis
Richard & Matthew
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Proto – Scenarios: Group consensus
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Proto – Scenarios: table of rankings “1 – 8” unlike to like:
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Proto – Scenarios: radar inter-graphic
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Orange
Green
Purple
Blue
GoldBlack
Red
Pink
Aqua
Orange Green Purple Blue Gold Black Red Pink Aqua
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Proto – Scenarios: working with the table of results, we can see the following:
Low degree of likeness(scores of 1 or 2):
Orange – gold, black, aquaGreen - pinkBlue – greenRed – orange, purple, aquaPink – greenAqua – orange, green, red
High degree of likeness(scores of 6 or 8):
Blue – blackGold – blue, black, purpleBlack – pink, blue, goldRed – blackAqua – blue, pink
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Proto – Scenarios: a possible picture of relative locality
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
SESSION 8:Building proto scenarios
Howard
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
This is a world in which …
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
• Write ten short sentences describing your world, brainstorm them in your group. They should be things about your world, each starting with:
“This is a world in which…”• Be very specific.• Mention things you can see, smell, hear, taste and touch.
Make them real.
Do you notice any tensions dilemmas or surprises about what it is like to live in your world?
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Please record your group colour and notes on the
table sheet provided
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
SESSION 9:SCENARIO NARRATIVES
Bernard
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Without stories, maybe
we’re just monkeys
with bank accounts
Why write scenario stories?
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
The scenario writer at work
As the next step, I write a scenario… minutely setting down, not only the scenes as they follow, the actions of the personages engaged, the sense of all they have to say, but even the ‘stage business’.
P Simpson 1884
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Scenario narratives transform the indicative timelines into stories.
We create stories about the future peopled with characters who portray what you have conceived; stories that brings the future to life dramatically. And stories which ultimately help us re-perceive the present; to learn from the future
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
Ideally, by creating drama, a scenario narrative also
exposes the tensions inherent in each future.
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
SESSION 10:Developing timelines
for proto-scenarios
Howard
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
SESSION 11:
THE NEXT STEPS
Oliver
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
OCTOBER• Prepare and distribute W2 report• Retain scenario building groups (SBGs) as created for
CONCERTO; SYMPHONY;FUGUE; SONATA• Draft scenario narratives from W2 and distribute
narratives to the SBGs for naming, and refinement “on line”
• Review of next draft by Mentor Groups –
OLIVER SYMPHONY
RICHARD SONATA
HOWARD CONCERTO
MELANIE FUGUE
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
NOVEMBER• Distribute scenario summaries to Virtual
Teams for comment “on line”
• Distribute scenario summaries to Reference Group for review at RG F2F meeting in mid-November
• Finalise scenario logics and scenario ‘influences’ table
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
DECEMBER
• Prepare draft scenario book
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
JANUARY - FEBRUARY
• Prepare Early Warning Signals with SBGs ‘online’
• Write scenario cameos• Complete all scenario book draft materials• Distribute scenario book to Mentor Groups
for review• Amendment, design, editing and passing for
press
© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency
MARCH• W3 “Scenarios to Strategy”
• 5-6 March 2007 Rydges Melbourne