Центральная Азия и Кавказ 2006 №01(43)
Transcript of Центральная Азия и Кавказ 2006 №01(43)
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
1/176
1(43), 2006
1
CA&CC Press
20061(43)
-
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
2/176
1(43), 2006
2
/: (994 - 12) 497 12 22 E-mail: [email protected]
/: (46) 920 62016 E-mail: [email protected]
(, )/: (994 - 12) 499 11 73 E-mail: [email protected]
()/: (7 - 3272) 67 51 72 E-mail: [email protected]
().: (996 - 312) 51 26 86 E-mail: [email protected]
().: (992 - 372) 21 79 03 E-mail: [email protected]
().: (998 - 71) 184 94 91 E-mail: [email protected]
(): (+994 50) 3006694 E-mail: [email protected]
().: (374 - 1) 54 10 22 E-mail: [email protected]
().: (995 - 32) 98 96 33 E-mail: [email protected]
().: (972) 2 5882332 E-mail: [email protected]
().: (49 - 89) 3003132 E-mail: [email protected]
().: (86) 10-64039088 E-mail: [email protected]
(). (7 - 495) 3163146 E-mail: [email protected]
().: (380-44) 524 79 13 E-mail: [email protected]
: 620720-0459
: 22 339
: M-770
CA&CC Press.
: 969713-2695
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
3/176
1(43), 2006
3
, , ()
, () ,
( ) , ,
() - ()
, , -
() ()
, ()
, , , ()
, ,
. .. , ( )
, , ()
, () , ()
, , () . ()
() ,
() ,
- ( ) ,
() , ,
()
, , ( ) , , () , , - , () ,
. () ,
()
, ()
, ,
:
CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUSHubertusstigen 9. 97455 Lule
SWEDEN : www.ca-c.org , 2006
CA&CC Press, 2006
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
4/176
1(43), 2006
4
-
1(43) 2006 .
. .
........................................................... 7
. . ..................... 16
. . : .......................... 29
. . -2005 : ........................................................... 42
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
5/176
1(43), 2006
5
. . -2005 : .................................... 52
. . ......... 64
. . : - (19921996) ...... 72
. -. ............................................ 86
. . - ........................................................................... 95
. .
....................... 107
. , :. .
............................................................................ 119
. . ................................................... 133
. . ( ) .................................... 143
. . : ............................... 149
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
6/176
1(43), 2006
6
:
.
.
.
. . ..... 161
. . : ........... 167
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
7/176
1(43), 2006
7
,
(, )
-
, , -
2005 - -
- (). . , - , ,
,
- , , -, . - , - , -, - - , -
.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
8/176
1(43), 2006
8
. -
, . 1990- , , . - () .
, - . , 2003 - , . () --, , - . 1990-
( ) , , - .,
, . - , , , - . , - , 10 , 2000 30 . , , 23 , - , : 1520 . , - 10% , 60%. , - 1.
, - , . - : , , , - () . , - , - . -
, , - .
. , , -, . , , , ,
1 .: , 2001, 12. . 19; , 2005, 4. . 39; , 2004, 1 (31). . 106.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
9/176
1(43), 2006
9
- . , ,
, -, . , , -
.
n -, , , , - .
n -, . , . - - , , , - . , .
( 1991 .) - , . . - (). , , , ( ) -.
, . 1994 , , , , 2. , , . 2005 - 30 .
, , - , 3,55,6 3. - 10 4. , .
1990- , , . , 1980 14,7 , 1990- 12,5 , 1996- 9,1, 1998- 11,4 , 2003- 15,4 . 50% - 5.
2 .: .. . ., 2004. . 233.3 .: . . 24.4 .: , 2005, 4. . 39.5 .: Bulletin OPEC. Vienna. IX. 1997. P. 7; , 1995, 2. . 4546.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
10/176
1(43), 2006
10
, 2003 - .
, . - .
- . -
, . - , - . 1993 , 926- ( ). , - , - .
( 1 411 ). 1990- , - - . - , ( )
6. 1516 . , .
, 1993 -. 1998 . , ,, . ( , .) 2,9 ., 1 730 , 50 . , . - (), (), (), (), (), (), (), ( ) (-). 2002 ( ) - , 2005 7.
, , , , , . , -
6 .. . . . 273; , 2005, 2. . 46.7 .: .. . . . 7273.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
11/176
1(43), 2006
11
, . -, . -, -
50 , . -, : - , , . (2005 . - .. . , , , - , 8.) , , , .
, , , -, . ,
, .
?
, - - . - . . , -
., , .
, . . 9, 130 . . - 0,16 . , . , 2025 . : , , 20 700 (, , 200 ). 75% ,
3 . , 3,6 . -, , . , 20 -.
8 urriyet, 10 2005.9 .: , 2005, 7. . 18. (
. ).
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
12/176
1(43), 2006
12
, 0,12 . , 15 0,17 /.
6065 ., - 1,2% 2004 , 1 . -. . , 10.
. 0,2 ./., 0,37 /, - 130 . . 0,07% 2004 , 68 0,16 . , , .
, - . . , :
. , , 4 , ( , ). , .
, , . - : 31 ./. 2003 60 70 2005-11. , - - , .
, 15 , - 33%. , 50 , -
70% (.. 35 ). , -, -, .
1990 , , 25,8 , - , 1996-
22,9 . (25,9 ) 1998
12
. - - 1993 - . 1997 , - ().
10 , 2005, 7. . 102.11 .: , 15 2005.12 .: Bulletin OPEC, IX, 1999. P. 7.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
13/176
1(43), 2006
13
(), - (), (-), () ., 13.
, - . , . -, - 50 50. , -, , , 2000 - , 7 . 200 4 15 . -, 14.
- , 2004 58 . -, 2015 150
170 . 15, - . , -
: , , . 1992 - ( ), - -, 1 580 , 67 2,32,4 . 2001 - . , - ( )16. ( ) (). , 2004
17. - . , . - .
. . , . , - . , - (90% ). , - 18.
. ,
, . -
13 .: .. . . . 100101.14 .: . . 317; , 2005, 3. . 40.15 .: , 2005, 2. . 48.16 .: .. . . . 2, 16, 217, 273.17 .: , 14 2004.18 .: , 31 2000.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
14/176
1(43), 2006
14
, - . , -
, . ( -) .
, . -
. , -. , 3 12 19, ,, , , .
, . . - , , , -, . 1990- - (), 20.
: - , . ( - 21.) , -. , , () .
. ( - , , ). .
, 610% . , , - . .
19 .: .. . . . 368.20 .: , ., 2000, 1. . 33.21 .: .. . . . 340.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
15/176
1(43), 2006
15
- ( 1938 . -
), , , . -.
- , 50 , , , - . , , , . , , .
, , - , . , , ,
. , - , . . , , - .
. 20% , -. . - . - 200 . ( , .) , - . ( - ). (-, ) , -. , , , . ( -.)
, , - , - - -. , , , -
- . , .
* * *
, , , ,
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
16/176
1(43), 2006
16
. , , -, - , .
- . -. , - , -. , , , , - .
(-, )
. - , , . -
.
, - , - - , - .
, -,
, -. -
, -. - , -, - ,
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
17/176
1(43), 2006
17
- 3.
, - 40% . , . , - -, - - 40%. , ,
- - : - - , - -.
2 500 / , 8 000 / , - (). -, - - , - 5 000 / , - 2501 350. - 111 4.
.
- ,
- - 1. 59- - - -, . - - , 114 . - .
- , - , , - , , 2. - , , - , . 25 , 2030 . -
, - . - -, . - , - . - - - . -
1997, - 1,04 ( -) 1 000 . ( 1990 .),
1 Emphasis added. Economic Survey 20042005,Govt of India. P. 1 [http:/indiabudget.nic.in].
2 , - A 59- - [http://www.presidentofindia.nic.in].
3 .: World Energy Outlook 1999.P. 132 [http://www.iea.org].
4 .: Srinivasan MR. The Worlds EnergyResources and Needs. Nuclear Power for the 21st Century, 2122 March2005, Paris [http://www.doe.gov.in].
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
18/176
1(43), 2006
18
. ,
-, , 40 - 5% ( ), , - . - - , - - : - ; ,
- ; - , - - -; - , - 5.
70%
, - 26% 2,5% . - , - , - , - . - - ., - . - International Energy Outlook2005, -
, , -
5% 6
. 9% 7. - , - , 2020 10%8. - -
. - . , 19961997 - 34 . 9 , 20002001 78 . . - . (. . 1): 20002001 74,1 , 20032004 90,4 10. - ( 6%7% ), ,
, - . 10 -. , ( - ) 19901991 55 . 20002001 100 11. -, , -
5 Kakodkar A. Energy in India for the ComingDecades. NuclearPower for the 21st Century, 2122 March 2005, Paris[http://www.doe.gov.in].
6 .: Energy Information Administration, US
Govt. International Energy Outlook 2005.P. 12 [http://www.eia.doe.gov/].7 .: World Energy Outlook 2000. P. 306 [http://
www.iea.org].8 .: Ibidem.9 (crore)
. 10 - . .
10 .: Economic Survey 2005. Govt of India.Table 1.30, S-30 [http:/indiabudget.nic.in].
11 .: Annual Report 2003-04. Ministry of Petro-leum. Govt. of India [http:/petroleum.nic.in].
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
19/176
1(43), 2006
19
1
-
, -
, . - , . - . - 9,1 ( ) 2000 15,3 2030-12. . - . 60% .
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
1960
1970 1980 1990 2000 2001 2002 2003
- , - -
-, - -.
12 .: World Energy Outlook 2002. P. 58 [http://www.iea.org].
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
20/176
1(43), 2006
20
, - , . -
, -, . 2010 , . 2,4% ( 1,6%). .
, , - . - 40% . 60%. () 2030 45% . - -
. , , , - . - 2,4% : 4,1% , 2% 1,5%
2
(19782005)
1/6/05
0
1/6/78
1/6/79
1/6/80
1/6/81
1/6/82
1/6/83
1/6/84
1/6/85
1/6/86
1/6/87
1/6/88
1/6/89
1/6/90
1/6/91
1/6/92
1/6/93
1/6/94
1/6/95
1/6/96
1/6/97
1/6/98
1/6/99
1/6/00
1/6/01
1/6/02
1/6/03
1/6/04
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
21/176
1(43), 2006
21
. 2030 -13.
, , . , , - . - , - . - , , , - . , - - . - -
. (. . 2 3), , 1990- -, 25 . , 1315 ., 1990- . , 60 . 1 . - , , -
3
(19802003)
13 .: World Energy Outlook 2002. Foreword.
.
.
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
1980
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
22/176
1(43), 2006
22
1 ... 3 .14 1990- - . ,
, ( ). - OE, , - . ( 2000 .) - - .
, -, , , - , . , , . 43% 2025 -. 30% , OE, . International Energy Outlook 2005, : - .
, ( ) 1870- . 1900 3 . -, 1924-. , , 17 39 -, 177182 . , 2% 5% - 15. , , -, , , . - . . , - . - , -, - -. , , : ,
. , , , 20-, 16. .
14 .: Energy Information Administration. US Govt. International Energy Outlook 2005. P. 31 [http://www.eia.doe.gov].
15 .:Rabinowitz P., et al. Geology, Oil and Gas Potential, Pipelines and the Geopolitics of the Caspian SeaRegion // Ocean Development & International Law, 2004, Vol. 35. P. 1940.
16 .: Ibidem.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
23/176
1(43), 2006
23
. 68 .17, -
0,6 . -. 6,6 . 18. - , - . - , , - . , () , , - -. . . , , .
, , - . , , - , , ( ). . , -, -. , (OKIO),
40 19
. - (. . 4). . , , - . - . - , - . . - , , , - . - 20. , -
- . : ,
17 .: Dorian J. Energy Resources in Central Asia // Challenges and Opportunities in Energy. P. 30 [http://www.adb.org].
18 .: Ibidem.19 .: Baghat G. Pipeline Diplomacy: The Geopolitics of the Caspian Sea Region // International Studies
Perspectives 2002, No. 3. P. 313.20 .: Ibid. P. 320.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
24/176
1(43), 2006
24
, . - - .
- . - . -, , - . , - , -
. - , - , - , - . , , . - , -
4
106171
130605
137413
776514
520153
346737
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
25/176
1(43), 2006
25
, . , ,
. , - , . , , . -, - .
- , , , . - -, - . -
: , , , . . - . - . , , - , . , - , -, , - , .
, , , . , , , . - . - , - -, . - - -. , -
- . 11 2001 , . - . - . , . . -
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
26/176
1(43), 2006
26
, - . -
.
:
- , , - , , . -
- . , . , , - , . ( - .) . ONGC Videsh Limited(OVL) Oil and Natural GasCorporation (ONGC), , , . OVL - (), ( ) ().
. . , , , , 21. - , ., , . - , , - . - . .
- . (The Nuclear Power Corporation of India NPCIL). - 14 (2 12 ) - 2 770 . 8 (6 - 2 ), 3 960 22. ,
21 .: Annual Report 2003-04. Ministry of Petroleum. Govt. of India. P. 1718.22 .: Executive Summary of Annual Report 2004-05. Atomic Energy Commission. Govt. of India. P. 1
[http://www.doe.gov.in].
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
27/176
1(43), 2006
27
- . -
. - , , - 23.
, . - - , ( 42% 58%). - - ; 90% . - - . ,,
. - 54% , -, (25%) (22%), 80%24. . - , . - 1%, 2020 25%. - . , . .
, - , . - . , , - , - . 25 - : -
, . , - , - . - , - .
23 .: Ibid. P. 12.24 .: World Energy Outlook 2000. P. 321.25 -
.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
28/176
1(43), 2006
28
, , - ,
. . . - - . , . , , ? : - , ? - -, - . : ? .
, - ? - - ? - , . , - .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
29/176
1(43), 2006
29
:
, ,
()
(, )
- , - -
-. , - - , : , , ,, , , - . -
, - .
, - -
, - - - - -. - - .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
30/176
1(43), 2006
30
- . - , , -, , , -. - , , . , - 1. , - .
, , , - . , , - . - , , , . - , , ,
. , -
. -
, - 1990- , - - . - - , - - .
, , - -
. - - . , - - -, -
1 , - 1948 , , 1990 . : , , -, , . 2001 , , -, .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
31/176
1(43), 2006
31
, -
- . -
, , , . , - . 20042005 , - ( -), , - . - . -
, , -, . - .
- . , - 2005 , - ,
. , - , -, . - . , - , , , , .. , - -. , , - .
-
2
. -, , - , - . , , - ,
2 ., : .. .// , 1991, 2; . - - // [http://centrasia.org/newsA.php4?st=1048023480]; Collins K. The Logic of ClanPolitics: Evidence from the Central Asian Trajectories // World Politics, January 2004, Vol. 56, No. 2. P. 224138.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
32/176
1(43), 2006
32
. , -
, , - - . ( ), ( ) . ( ) . , , , .
. - , - .
, . - 3, . - - , , , - . - , (2005 .) . 4. - , - .
- . , , . -
, , , - , , , . - . , , , - . , - , -. . ( - ) , .
2004 , , - , . . ,
3 .: . . - // , 28 2005.
4 .: . : , , // , 2005, 3 (39).
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
33/176
1(43), 2006
33
, , .
. 27 2005 , ( 45% ). , ( - ) . , - , . , - . . , - , .
. ,
. 89% , . (3,9%), - . (3,6%). - 1%. , , . , - . 2005, , . , - , - . .
. - . . - ,
5 15 .5, 2005 , 27 , - . , . . , , - . , . 88% , . - 63 . , -, 85% . , 5%- () . - : , -- . , ( ) . , , - () () , , - 2005 ,
5 , , , 60% - , 25% 15% .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
34/176
1(43), 2006
34
. . . , ...
... , - . , , - 6.
, - 30% , , - (). - . - . , . , 29 2004 : -, ,
7. 2005 , .
, : 4, 2. , 2006 - , , . , , . 2005 , , . , , -
- . , , , , . -.
- 2006 , . . , . , - 8.
, - . . , -
6 [http://www.gtnews.ru/cgi/news/view.cgi?goto=8431/], 12 2005.7 , (
) 2 2004 - .
8 . (), 19921997 , 2003 , . , - 2020 .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
35/176
1(43), 2006
35
- , -
, , - .
. - ; (. ); - ; - . , , . , - - . , , , .
, , , -- . - . , -.
. - , - , - -, .
, , -
2003 ( ) . - . , -, ( ), , 2 . . -, . , , - , , ( ). , 2003 , , - , 2004 9. - , . , -
-, - . , , , -
9 99,8% (2 391 315 .). 65 - 144 , 5 535 6 323.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
36/176
1(43), 2006
36
. 510 - . ,
, , - . 19 2004
. 50 ( 131 ), , 10. - , -, . - . 400 , : , , , . : -
. , ,
, . , . , - .
- 11. . , . , , 10 . - , 20082010 , - 12. - 2009 .
, , , , - , . , - , - . , , . , , , .
10 50 1 610 -. 77% .
11 . 1985 , 1991- . 1999 - . . 2002- - , .
12 7 2005 , - , . : , , .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
37/176
1(43), 2006
37
( ) -
. , - , . . , . , . - . 2002 - , ., , -, . , , . , - - . , ,
, , - , . -
, -. , - .
. - , - . , , , -. - . -
(), , , , .
, . ( ) - : , .
- 2004 - . , - . -
26 . , 85,1% , 62 ( 489 ). 58 - (9 2005 .) 80%. . 500 -, . - 15% , 20% , , 10% .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
38/176
1(43), 2006
38
18 (15%) - . , , -
, . - , 50% . - .
. -() -, . , - - , .
, -. , -
- - , .
, - . , , . - -. , , . -, - - . - . , ,
. , , . - - , . , - , -.
- , - .
, , ,
, - 2007 . - . 13. , ,
13 1991 , , . . 1995 - 2000 . 9 2000 - , - , . . - 91,9% , , 4,17%.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
39/176
1(43), 2006
39
. , .
1990- - -, , . . - , , . , - , , . . , . , - , . .
, , , , -, , . , -, , . , , , , -, . . , - - , .
- . -
, , , , - , , . - , , -. , , , .
, -. , , -. 2005 - . , , - .
( . ) - , 14, .
-, , 19 2004. , -
14 2000 2005 62,4%, 33%. 10,2% 5,9%.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
40/176
1(43), 2006
40
- ,
1999 . () - , , - . ( . ) , , , , . - -, .
, 2004 - ( ). -
, , , . - - , . , . - . , 20002001 , , - . , , , , -. . , , (), - . -
. . 2004 -, . .
, 2004 , - ( -). , - . ( 2004 .) , - . - , , .
, 2005 , , -
, . , . - - -.
-. : -, , , . -
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
41/176
1(43), 2006
41
. . .
, . , - . . - - . , , 1 ( 10 ), -. , , -.
, -
. . , - , ( ) - - -. - . - - , , , 15 .
(4 2005 .) . . - 90% , -
14 , . , - . , , - 1989 -. . , - , , ,, 2009 . , , - , .
- . , , . -
- . ( , ) - .
15 2012 89 . . 70 . ( 500 .), .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
42/176
1(43), 2006
42
. , , - - . - : - - . , -, . , - -
, , -, , . - . , , -.
-2005 :
1
,
(, )
. 6 - 2005 , ,
1 2005 SWP-Aktuell .
- -
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
43/176
1(43), 2006
43
. -
- . - , - . - - , - , . - , -
. , - , . - - -. , ,
, - .
, - - -, . , , , - , -
-. , , - . - -.
, -
, - . , , . - , . , , - ,
-.
, - - 2003 , - , - . , , -
- - . . , - - . -
- , - -.
- -
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
44/176
1(43), 2006
44
, , . , 2005 . . - , . , , - , - .
, -
-, , - . - , , , . , -. , , - - - .
- . -
. , - -, - . , - , . - - .
, , , . , - . , . -, , , -
- .
, - , - . - - , . , -, . -
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
45/176
1(43), 2006
45
, , , -
. , , - , . , . - , , - . - , - , - . - , , - . : .
-, - , , . 1994 - , . . , - -
. 1996 , - , . , - , . - -, 2003 , , - , - . - .
2005 . , , -
. - , -. , , . - , ,, .
, 17 , . -
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
46/176
1(43), 2006
46
. , -
. , . , -, , - , , , . , . -, -, . - .
, - (1 3 ). ,
, , . . , , - . - . , - - . , , .
, - , -. 2003 , , - , . - , . ,
2004 . - , - .
2005 . , - , (), (). - - . -
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
47/176
1(43), 2006
47
, , -
. , . , -, , - . , , - , - .
, - , - - . - , - , .
-, .
, - - , - . - , , . - . - - .
. , . , -, . . , , -, . - - - , . , , , .
, , -
, , , - . , , - - . , - , . - , - , .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
48/176
1(43), 2006
48
, - 1990- .
, . , , , - .
, , . - - , . , -, , , , - : , ,
, - .
:
, , , -
, . - : - , 63 ( 125), 7, - . , - , . - (exit poll), - Government, , ., 10 Government .
, - . , . , . . , - .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
49/176
1(43), 2006
49
-2005 - .
10 , . , , - , . - , . , - ( ).
, - - .
, - . : - ? , , - . , . , . , -, , . , , - . ( ) , .
, , . , . , -, . - , - , , ,
., , -
. - . . - , . , , . , -
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
50/176
1(43), 2006
50
, - -
. - , - .
-, - . , : - -. , . . - , . - , - . , , ,
, , , - . . , -
. , , . , - - . . (, ), , , - . , . - , -
, - .
. , - , . , - . - . , , - - - . , , -
.,
, -, . -, , , - . -, , , . ,
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
51/176
1(43), 2006
51
. , , -
, , - .
?
, 2005 - . 2006-, -. : - , -
; , , - . , , , . , - . , . - , . , , , 2008 .
- , -,
. , , . , - . - - . , -, - .
, - ,
. - , , . , . .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
52/176
1(43), 2006
52
-2005
:
(, )
. ,
, . - , , - - - .
, , - . , - , 20052006
( 4 2005-). , , -, .
, - . , - , , , - , -: , , , ( ), . ,
. -
. , , , , . - - , - .
- ,
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
53/176
1(43), 2006
53
-.
. , , - . , , - , - , .
-, 1 2009 , - .
* * *
, 2005 , 2006-. - . - 1999 , , 2006- - 11 , .
- , , - 2005 , 7 4 1. , -
. , -. , - . . - . - : - - , - . -
, . - , , , - ...2
- , .
1 , 7 2005.2 , 21 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
54/176
1(43), 2006
54
, , - . -
- , . 8 3 2005 -
. 18 : - 4 ., 14 . , 13 - , , , . : . , - () ; . -, , ; . , , , - ; . , ,
; . , (), -.
, . - . . , , -3.
9 2005 , , , - 4. - - . , -2005 . ( ), - .
- , /5. 6, . - :
n - ;
3 .: . [www.akorda.kz/page.php?_id=lang=1&article_id=917].
4 .: [www.election.kz/press_208?_new.htm].5 -
[www.osce.org/ odihr/].6 .: / [www.osce.
org/odihr-elections/13442.html].
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
55/176
1(43), 2006
55
n ;
n , -
;n , -
;
n , - ;
n , -, ;
n ;
n -
-7.
, - , - .
, - . - , , 8. , , , .
, - . , ,
- , -, . , , - .
-2005 - . -, , , .
, - , .
n -, , ( ) ,
7 .: 12 2005 [www.election.kz/portal/page?328_osce.htm].
8 .: .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
56/176
1(43), 2006
56
. .
, , . , . , - . , : - . , , -. , , - ...9
n -, , , , , .. , . - , , -
. ,
, . . . - , : . , . ,- . , . . , - - - . , . , -- . .
, - , , . - , , , .
, -2005 , - . , . - 1999 , , , -
, -, . . , , - 910% , 75%, 3,54 ;
9 [www.inform.kz/showarticle.php?lang=rus&id=135656].
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
57/176
1(43), 2006
57
3 1 130 . 1999 3 440 . 2005-; 4 ; 3 ,
, , ; - 18 . , 89% . 5 10,3%10. , 2005 - 61- 117 , 11.
. , - , 4 - , . -, - , -
. , - .
-. , 1999 . . , , : , .
-2005 . - (. , . . ), : - .
, - - . - , , , - . , , , -, .
, , . - .
, , , .. : - , , , - . , , -.
10 [www.stat.kz].11 , 25 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
58/176
1(43), 2006
58
-
, -, . , - , .
, , . , , -. . .
, , , - . , -, . , -
- - .
. - , - . - , , - , -. , , , : , . -, . - , - , - , .
-2005 . , , . , - , .
. , .
. : , , -. , , . 12.
12 . .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
59/176
1(43), 2006
59
-. . , , ,
, - . - , - - . - - - , . , , , .
, -2005 , , , , - - . , - ,
, . - , - .
, ( -) . -, -. , - - , - . , - . -
, , , , .
, - , - . -, , .
-, . - . , , , , . - . , -
(, , . ) - . ( - )13.
. , . . -
13 . [www.nomad.su/?a3-200509220030].
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
60/176
1(43), 2006
60
. . .
, , . - , - . : . , - , . -.
- -, /14 . , - , -- . 15.
, . , , , . . . : - . 16. , , . , - , , , , , - . -, - . .
. , , , - , . . - . , , . -, . - , , , , , . , - , : , , , , ( . . ..) . . - , , , , , ,
. , , , 17. . , , .
14 .: OSCE: 2005 Presidential Election in Kazakhstan. Interim Report 2 [www.osce.org/item/17040html=1].15 , 21 2005.16 . [www.kub.kz/article.psp?sid=9942].17 . [www.baimenov.kz/
publ_rus.htm].
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
61/176
1(43), 2006
61
91,01
6,64
1,65
0,38
0,32
6 110 694
445 047
110 462
25 330
21 674
- ,
. . - , - . , 4 - 2005 , , . , 77% (. .)18.
( %)
1. . ()
2. . ()
3. . ( )
4. . ()
5. . ()
, . , . , . , . . .
. - , , . , - .
, 1999 --2005 . - . -, 2009 , .
. -, - -. - , . -
,
19
. . , , , , , 20, -
18 .: - . , 7 2005.19 .
!.20 .: . // , 19 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
62/176
1(43), 2006
62
, , , .
. -2005 , - . , .
, , , -. - , , - .
, ,
, - , , - . , - : . -, . , . . - , - , - .
, , . - :
n -, ;
n -, , - , ;
n -, ;
n -, -- -;
n -, , , .
-2005 , -
, . ( ) - . - - , .
, - , ,
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
63/176
1(43), 2006
63
-.
- -. , , , - --2005. , , - . - .
, - . - -, - , - .
- , (, , -), (, ). , , .
- - ,
, - , -- .
* * *
, -2005 - . - , -. , - , , 21.
. : , . . . ... 22
21 .: .. [www.otan.kz/publ040905.html].
22 , 26 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
64/176
1(43), 2006
64
, - ,
. - . , , , , .
, , - , , - . - - , , . , . , . . , - : . -, . , . . , . , -
, - . , -
, 2009 -, . - , . , , - : - - , - .
,
(, )
2005 - - -
1.
1 -
- , -
, .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
65/176
1(43), 2006
65
- - , , , . .
- . , - . , , , - , - . , -
. - . , . , , -. (4 2004 .) - , , 28 , .
, . -, , , . , , , - -
. ,
, , , , , .
, , , , (4 -
. -
. - , , -, .
: ,
- , - ( 2006- , 2008 . - 2009 . - ).
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
66/176
1(43), 2006
66
) (28 ) . ,
. , - - . , - .
- , . - 7 5%. . ... . - 7%- , - 2 .
, , , - . -, 2004 , , - . . . , 2003 ( ), 84% ,
. 5% -. 2003 - 14% , , 68% -, . 2004 . 2005 , . , , 39% , 31% .
-. , , , . - , . - , 10 , .
. , - . - 2006 , -.
2 , 12 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
67/176
1(43), 2006
67
, ,
. , - , . , - , . 22 - 2005 , , , - . 7 ( 6 ), . - . ,
, , - . , , 3.
: , - . , , .
4. , , , , . , , -
, 5
. , , , , 6. - , , , . , - , , , . : -
3 .: . 7 , 39 2005.4 -
: . -
: 32 . , 6 483 (, 28 2005). 30 . 30 - 12 - . , , .
5 (, , - ) -. , , . - ( 7 , 39 2005).
6 , 30 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
68/176
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
69/176
1(43), 2006
69
, , . , ,
, 12
. - . , - . . , , -. , . , - : , - . . . -, , , , 13.
, . , . ,
. - . . , 1 , . , 25%, - , 14.
- . , - , - -. , . . - , -
. , - 15. , 16.
, 2006 , . , , . - . , , , - . , - , 23 2003 17.
- . . -
12 , 3 2005.13 .: .14 . 24 , 3 2005.15 .: , 3 2005.16 .: , 3 2005.17 . 24 , 3 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
70/176
1(43), 2006
70
. , , , -
, , . ,
, . , 1 , . , , .
:
, 2005 , . - . , , 18. - : , . , .
2006 : - . , 1998 2002 . - , 28 2004 .
, , -
, - . , , , -19. , - . , ,, , - .
, 2006 - . , , - , 4%-, .
- , . , : , - ? , . , - .
18 , 23 2005.19 . 24 , 11 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
71/176
1(43), 2006
71
, - - -
. , -. - , - .
. , ( - ), -, .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
72/176
1(43), 2006
72
:
-
(19921996)
, ,
();
(, )
1.
() -- 1992 1996 , , -
. , () (, , ) , - , . - , , ( ).
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
73/176
1(43), 2006
73
, ,
.
2. / -
19921993
(), 1994 , , 1975 . -
, /, 1. - - 1992 - , 2. - 24 1992 . () - -3 ( , - 1991 . ). .
, : , , , , , , -
, , , . , - , . - - 1992 - . , - 4. - -. , 14 1992 -, : 5.
1 .: Brinton W.M. The Helsinki Final Act and Other International Covenants Supporting Freedom andHuman Rights. .: Brinton W.M.,Rinzler A. Without Force or Lies, Voices from the Revolution of Central
Europe in 1989-1990.U.S.A.: Mercury House Press, 1990. P. 5356.2 .: Macfarlane N. Keeping Peace or Preserving Conflicts? // Warreport, June-July 1997, No. 52. P. 34.3 .: Fuller E. Ethnic Strife Threatens Democratization. .: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Research
Report ( RFE/RLRR), January 1993, Vol. 2, No. 1. P. 22.4 .: Maresca J.J. Resolving the Conflict Over Nagorno-Karabakh: Lost Opportunities for International
Conflict Resolution. .: Crooker Ch.A., Hampson F.O., Aall P. Managing Global Chaos, Sources of andResponses to International Conflict.Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1996. P. 260.
5 .: Ibidem. , - , - , , , - (.: Ibid. P. 261).
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
74/176
1(43), 2006
74
, 1992 .
6
. - . , - , - : - 7. -, , : , - 8.
, - , , , ,
. , 1992 -, . , - - , : - . , , 6 1991 , - 9. 1992 , , - .
1993 -
, :1. ( )
.
2. , : - , ,, .
3. 10.
, , -, - . ,
. (8 1993 .) , -
6 .: Laitin D.D., Suny R.G. Thinking a Way Out of Karabakh // Journal of Middle East Policy ( ),October 1999, Vol. 3, No. 1. P. 12.
7 .: Weitz R. The CSCEs New Look. .: RFE/RLRR, February 1992, Vol. 1, No. 6. P. 27.8Laitin D.D., Suny R.G. Op. cit. P. 12.9 .: Azerbaijan, Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. New York Washington Los Angeles
London Brussels: Human Rights Watch/Helsinki, 1994. P. 2.10 Report on the Conflict on Nagorno-Karabakh. Document 7182, presented to the Parliamentary Assembly
of the Council of Europe (PACE), 17 October 1994. P. 8 [http://stars.coe.fr/doc/doc94/edoc7182.htm].
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
75/176
1(43), 2006
75
,
. , , 11. , , , . -, , - , 12.
- 1992 .
n -, ( ) . - , , 13. , - , -, , . 1993 , - . , . - - - , 14. : , 15.
n -, . , . , : . , , [ ] - 16. , ., , , .
11 .: OSCE Handbook, Field Activities, the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Dealt with by the MinskConference, 4 April 2000. P. 14 [http://www.osce.org/publications/handbook/5.htm].
12 .: Fuller E. Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the Karabakh Mediation Process. .: RFE/RLRR, 25 Feb-ruary 1994, Vol. 3, No. 8.
13Maresca J.J. Op. cit.14 .: Waal Th.D. Black Garden, Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War. New York London:
New York University Press, 2003. P. 226227 (. : Goldenberg S. Pride of Small Nations, the Caucasus andPost-Soviet Disorder.London New Jersey: Zed Books Ltd., 1994. P. 147148).
15 .: Fuller E. Armenia Votes Overwhelmingly for Secession. .: RFE/RLRR, Report on the USSR,27 September 1991, Vol. 3, No. 39. P. 1820.
16Maresca J.J. Op. cit.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
76/176
1(43), 2006
76
, - ,
17
. -, - .
n -, - - 18. - , , - . - - , , . , 1992 , 19. ,
, , - , 20.
, . , , , -. , : - , - , - .
.
n -, , - 19921993 , - - . , , , . , , - .
n -, , - . 1992 -
, - . - - .
17Maresca J.J. Op. cit. P. 261262.18 .: Ibid. P. 262.19 .: Ibid. P. 263.20 .: Walker J. European Regional Organizations and Ethnic Conflict. .: Karp R.O. Central and
Eastern Europe, the Challenge to Transition. Oxford New York: Oxford University Press, 1993. P. 5556.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
77/176
1(43), 2006
77
n -, , , . ,
. , - , , -, 1992 - .
, - , .
.
3.
19921993 ?
, 1992 - - , - . -, , - . ,
20 1992 , - , , -, 21. .
, , , - 1991 . - , , . , , , - (). , , , - 22. - ,
21 Fuller E. Nagorno-Karabakh: Internal Conflict Becomes International. .: RFE/RLRR, 13 March1992, Vol. 1, No. 11. P. 3.
22 .: Crow S. Russia Promotes the CIS as an International Organization. .: RFE/RLRR, 18 March1994, Vol. 3, No. 11. P. 33.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
78/176
1(43), 2006
78
, . , -
23. ( 1993 .) -
. . 1993 : . , , , , 24.
- . , - ,
- , - 25.
- . -- . , 1993 , , - , : ... , , , 26.
, . . , , ,
. - , - 27.
1993 , - . , , - . . , - , 28. , : -, , -,
29. , - .
23Fuller E. Nagorno-Karabakh: Internal Conflict Becomes International.24Maresca J.J. Op. cit. P. 263.25 .: Baev P.K. Going It Alone in the Caucasus // Warreport, June-July 1997, No. 52. P. 36.26Fuller E. Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the Karabakh Mediation Process. P. 32.27 .: Laitin D.D., Suny R.G. Op. cit. P. 13.28 Ibid. P. 14.29Maresca J.J. Op. cit. P. 265.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
79/176
1(43), 2006
79
-. -
. -, , ., . -, - - . -, 30, , . , -, - .
, , . - . -, 1993 , - ,
. ( ) , , - , . , , -: ... - , , 31. , , , , - .
, 1993 , -, , , , . -
, , - 32. , (- ), , , , - , . : 33. - , 822 853 34, .
. - -, .
-, 19921993 , -
30 .: Ibidem.31 Fuller E. Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the Karabakh Mediation Process (. : Fuller E. The Near
Abroad: Influence and Oil in Russian Diplomacy // Transition, 28 April 1995, Vol. 1, No. 6. P. 32).32Bremmer I., Richter A. The Perils of Sustainable Empire // Transition, 15 March 1995, Vol. 1, No. 3. P. 14.33Fuller E. The Near Abroad: Influence and Oil in Russian Diplomacy. P. 32.34 .: Annual Report on OSCE Activities, Section 2.9 on Conflict in the Area Dealt with the Conference on
Nagorno-Karabakh, 1993 [http://www.osce.org/e/docs/anualrep/anrep93e.htm].
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
80/176
1(43), 2006
80
. , 12 1994 - ,
( ) , - 35. . 1994 , - . , - . , - 36.
: . - . , 1994 . :
1. - .
2. - .
3. .
4. , , - .
5. - 37.
. . - ( 1994 .) . . . , - - . -, - 38. .
4. (56 1994 .)
- . , -
35 .: Croissant M.P. The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict, Causes and Implications. Westport Connecticut London: Praeger, 1998. P. 110111.
36 .: Annual Report on OSCE Activities, Section 2.2 on the Conflict in the Area Dealt with by theConference on Nagorno-Karabakh, 1994 [http://www.osce.org/e/docs/anualrep/anrep94e.htm].
37Laitin D.D., Suny R.G. Op. cit. P. 1415.38Maresca J.J. Op. cit. P. 266.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
81/176
1(43), 2006
81
1992 , , -
39
. , - ( -) , - . 3 . .40 . , , - 41.
, - , ,
-, , - , . -, - - 42.
- , - : - 43. , , . - .
, , - , 44. . , . , 45.
6 1995 ( - ). - 46 .
39 .: OSCE Handbook, Field Activities, The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Dealt with by the Minsk
Conference. P. 15.40 .: Migdalovitz C. A paper on the Armenian Azerbaijani Conflict (e-mail version). P. 8 [http://www.geocities.com/master8885/Forces/fas.htm].
41 .: Annual Report on OSCE Activities, Section 2.2 on the Conflict in the Area Dealt with by the MinskConference, 1995 [http://www.osce/e/docs/annualrep/anrep95e.htm].
42 .: The OSCE Budapest Summit 1994, Intensification of CSCE Action in Relation to the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict [http://www.osce.org/docs/english/1990-1999/summits/buda94e.htm].
43 .: Laitin D.D., Suny R.G. Op. cit. P. 15.44Maresca J.J. Op. cit.45 .: Ibidem.46 .: Herzig E. The New Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. London New York: The Royal
Institute of International Affairs, 1999. P. 69.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
82/176
1(43), 2006
82
.
-, , - . - .
, , , . - ( ) , , . 47. - -
, - , 48.
, , - , , . - , , - , . 49. ,
.
, , - . - , , , - 50. , - , .
. ,
. . .
47 .: Report on the Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, Document 7182, presented to the ParliamentaryAssembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), 17 October 1994. P. 10 [http://stars.coe.fr/doc/doc94/edoc7182.htm].
48 .: Ibidem.49 .: Ibidem.50 .: Azerbaijan, Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. P. 110.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
83/176
1(43), 2006
83
5.
(23 1996 .) , -
, . - , XXI , - 51. -- .
, , , - , - ( ). - , - :
1. -;
2. , , - , ;
3. , 52.
- , - -53. -. , , 54.
-, . , -. - , 55.
,
51 Giragosian R. A paper on the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and theNagorno-Karabakh Conflict: A Compilation of Analysis, Washington, July 2000. P. 5.
52 .: . 1996. 1996 . . 1, - .
53 .: 2, .54Libaridian G.J. The Politics of Promises. A paper presented at a conference on the Transcaucasus Today,
Prospects for Regional Integration. Erevan, Armenia, 23 June 1997.55 Ibidem.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
84/176
1(43), 2006
84
. - , , -
, , - 56.
, - , - , 20% . - , . - 57.
, .
, - . - , - - (. .).
,
1. .
2. .
3. .
4. , ( ).
5. , .
6. .
: Blair B. Forging a Lasting Peace, The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict.. . // Azerbaijan International,Spring 1996, No. 4 (1) [http://www.azer.com].
56Guluzade V. Karabakh, The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict // Azerbaijan International, Summer 1998, No. 6 (2)[http://www.axer.com]. .: Aliev Ya.T. U.N.Reaffirms the Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity of Azerbaijan // Azerbaijan International, Winter 1998, No. 6 (4)[http://www.azer.com].
57 .: Petrossian L.T. War and Peace? Time for Thoughtfulness // Armenpress, 3 November 1997.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
85/176
1(43), 2006
85
1996 - . , , -
-, . - . , , , . 58. , - - . .
6.
- , , , - 19921996 .
. - . - - . - 19921994 , -
- . - - - . , - .
1992 1993 - . , ( ). , .
, - . , . , -, .
58 .: Libaridian G.J. The Challenge of Statehood, Armenian Political Thinking Since Independence.U.S.A.: Blue Crane Books, 1999. P. 5556.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
86/176
1(43), 2006
86
, 1994 1996 -, ,
- . - , - - .
: - - , - , . , - , - .
-
,
(, )
- . - -
. , , ,, - - . -- -, - , - -
- -
. ,, , --, - . -, , : - . -
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
87/176
1(43), 2006
87
,
( ) , - 1949 1977 , , - , . -
, - .
. , , . , - - . 1907 , 1949 2 - 1 3. -, , , - , - , - .
, , - . - , (
-.
, - 20% - . , -, - - ,
1. -
- ().
1 .: - -, . 1416 (2005) [http://assembly.coe.int/Mainf.asp?link=/Documents/AdoptedText/ta05/ERES1416.htm], 14 2005.
2 C.: 12 1949 . .: ,1994. . 137211.
3 C.: . . 212295.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
88/176
1(43), 2006
88
). , , -
. - , . , - , , , . , -, - , -. , , . , - . -, . 100 . - 1520 . , 316 , 324 , 322 -
4
. , - , , - .
4 1949 - -, , 5. , - - . - , (- 366- ) . , . 20 (
) - , , . - , , ( ) - .
, , , , III III - 1949 . - , - , , - . -, . , ,
. . , , , . ,
4 .: The Military Balance, 20032004. Oxford: IISS, 2003. P. 66, 73; ,19 2000. . 2; , 16 2002. . 11.
5 C.: 12 1949 ...
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
89/176
1(43), 2006
89
. , -, ,
.
1992 -, , . 27 1993 , - . 6. 1992
. - , 7. 1993 -. () ( )8. 1998 , . , ( - ), , - 1992 9. 200 . 100 . - , , - , 10. , -
. , ( ) 1 700 -. , , , (1994 .) (1996 .) - 11.
, - 3 5 . , 3550 , 7086 , 80100 - 12.
, ( ) , . 3 - 1949 13.
6 .: . [http://www.abkhazeti.ru/pub/smi/93_99_99/], 9 2005.
7 C.: .8 C.: .9 C.: .10 C.: .11 C.: .12 .: The Military Balance, 20032004. P. 66, 73; , 19 2000. . 2;
, 16 2002. . 11.13 C.: 12 1949 ... . 138.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
90/176
1(43), 2006
90
, .
1922 - -. 1989- - . , -, ( ) 14. 1990 - . - - . , 1991 - , ( ). 15.
, 16. 1992 ( -, ) 17. - 1990- 1992 2 4 . . 2 . ., 510 , 30 , 25 18.
19922004 , - , , - - 19.
, , , - , 1944 . - 20.
, - . , , . - 3 -, , - , . , , - , .. , .
14 .: - , - [http://www.scirs.org/ru/geos/article_details.php?id=101&cat=History], 9 2005.
15 .: .16 .: .17 .: .18 .: The Military Balance, 2003-2004. P. 66, 73; , 19 2000. . 2;
, 16 2002. . 11.19 .: - ...20 . .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
91/176
1(43), 2006
91
, . ,
. , --, , -, ... -...21.
: ? ,
: -- ; - , (); - .
, - , -
. , -, . . - , , -. -. , - , , .
, , . , - .
, , , -. -, - .
, -
21 .: 12 1949 ... . 138.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
92/176
1(43), 2006
92
; . -
., - . , , , - . , , , , . , - , -- . , . - , - , - . , , ,
, . 1988 - .
, - 82 1 , - 22. , .. , - , -23. , 1987 , 24.
, - , , - . , - 1992 , , , , , 25. , , -, 26. -
22 .: . . .: - . .: , 1999. . 737.
23 C.: .. . : , 1999. . 147.24 .: .. -
// , 1997, 9. . 10.25 .: [http://www.icrc.org/Web%5Crus%5Csiterus0.nsf/htmlall/azerbaijan?
OpenDocument&style=custo_morenews], 9 2005.26 .: .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
93/176
1(43), 2006
93
(1999 .) 1949 27. -
, ( ). - , , , , , 28.
( 1992 .) , , , - , , - 29. , , , , 30. , , . -
- , - -31. - , - , , - 32.
- , . , , . -, , , , , - .
( ) -- , - , , -, , ,
..
27 .: 1949-c 12 C / n sz Namiq liyev. , 1999. 392 . ( 12 1949- - / . , 1999. 392 .)
28 .: .29 .: [http://www.icrc.org/Web/rus/siterus0.nsf/htmlall/georgia], 9 2005.30 .: .31 .: .32 .: .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
94/176
1(43), 2006
94
.
- , 8- - ( - 1949 .). - .
, - , . - - . , 120 , -, , - ( -). , - , , , -
, , -, .
: , ; ; - ; ; - ; , , ; , , , -, , ..
, , : - ; -, ; - ( -, ..).
, - . , , - ( ) - , , , , - . . -, , - ( )
( - ).
, - . ,
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
95/176
1(43), 2006
95
. , - , ,
, -, .
-
, -
- ()
,
(, )
2005 - ,
- . - , -
- -, 20081. , ,
, - -, - ( )2 - -
. 62-
- 2005
1 .: - [www.mid.ru], 30 2005.
2 .: . -- // , 2005, 3 (39).
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
96/176
1(43), 2006
96
, 2005 (), . , ,
( ), 20 -. , , , ( 19591969 .) 3. , - , 13 -. ( ) 142- , , - - , , ( ). -, ,
( 8 ). - 20 -72, 12 - , 3 - -23-4 -2. 53 42 . - 62- 102- (). 12- () , , . - , 2006 . 2005 ( - ) 4.
102- , , -
- ( , , ). - (
- , -
- .
- - -
.
3 .: . : - // , 7 2005.
4 .: . : - // - , 511 2005, 37 (104).
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
97/176
1(43), 2006
97
), - . -
- , , -. , - 5.
. , - , , - (). , (, )
. - 6. , , - , 10 .
. , - . , - - (SCIRS) : , ( ) - - . , (- ) -. , 2004 7. -, , - .
-
. -, . . - - -
5 .6 //
, IWPR, 2005, 293296.7 . ?
[www.pankisi.info], 7 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
98/176
1(43), 2006
98
, . - 62- - , -
( - ), - . - , - .
-:
2005 8 ( - 62- ) , - , - , . . - , - , , ,
. : ., , . , - . . , - , , - 9.
, 27 2005 (- -) - ( )10. -
8 .: Hokobyan G. Large Demonstration in Javakheti Marks Increased Tensions // Central Asia Caucasus Analyst, 6 April 2005, Vol. 6, No. 7.
9 .: . - - ( . .) // 21- (- ), 2005, 1.. 6671; : [www.regnum.ru],8 2005.
10 .: [www.regnum.ru], 30 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
99/176
1(43), 2006
99
2004 , - ,
, , - . , , , , , , 11.
2005 -, -, , , (-) . , - , . 12.
,
, - - -. - , - - , .
, , , , . 2324 2005 . ( ) - - , : . -, , -- (11 2004 .), - (2 2005 .). , - ( ) -, , - , , 13.
-
, 2324 - . , , - ,
11 .: [www.regnum.ru], 6 2005.12 .: - () . [www.
regnum.ru], 3 2005.13 .: - () [www.regnum.ru], 26 -
2005; . // , 26 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
100/176
1(43), 2006
100
, ( ). -
, -, , - - . . - 14. (, , -.)
- . , 16
-, - , 2324 2005 . , . ( , - - .) - . .
- , ,
15. , , , -, . - - .
, 2004 -- - - -, ( , -
, 1995 .), . , , -, , -
14 .: . - . .171176.15 .: . [www.civil.ge], 4 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
101/176
1(43), 2006
101
(IPAP) . , 2005 , . ,
- . , ,
- 1990-. ( ) - - -. - , , , - . . -
- , 62- .
- , , . 5 - 2005 16. . -, - (, , ). , , , -
, . , - 62- . - , , -17. 5 2005 - : , 18. , , 19. , - -
.
16 .: [www.newsgeorgia.ru], 6 2005.
17 . . .: , : . , 2005. . 157.
18 -[www.civil.ge], 10 2005.
19 .: - [www.regnum.ru], 8 - 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
102/176
1(43), 2006
102
-
-- , . -, , - , . , , , 20,
, . ( ) , - - - -.
, - . , ( ) . , - , -, - , - , .
. - . , - , - . -- .
(13 31 2005 .), . (34 ). ( -) - - . -
, , , . . , , . - , - -
20 .: [www.regnum.ru], 22 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
103/176
1(43), 2006
103
. - , . -
, .
, - (2122 . . , ), - - : , - (24 2005 - - ). , - . - , ,
, - . , - -, . -. . , - , 21. - - , - , , , - 120- . . , , , . - ( . )22. ,, , - ,
- , , 62- .
, 2930 , - , - . () - , , - - -. , - , .
- - 2324 2005 , -, . , -
21 - [www.regnum.ru],24 2005.
22 .: - - [www.regnum.ru], 24 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
104/176
1(43), 2006
104
- -
. - , . , - . . - , - - , .. - , , - , - - - . , , -
, , . , - .
, , - - - , 29 2005 . . , , - , , - . - - . : , , -
, - 23
. , , - - - -. , - , .
, , -, - - . - , , - , .
- . , - ( ) . , - . -
23 : , [www.regnum.ru], 29 2005.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
105/176
1(43), 2006
105
, , , -
.
- - - . - , - - . - ( , -
), -. : - - , - - . - , , - .
, . - - , ,
, - ( , -, ). , -- , , - , , , . - . - , , .
, , - -. , ,
( ) , 102- ( ) ( - ) . , - . , - , , - . - , -
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
106/176
1(43), 2006
106
-. ,
(), ( ). , -, , - .
- - , . - -- . (
.) , , .
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
107/176
1(43), 2006
107
, ()
(, )
1.
1963 - - , - -
. - ( ), - 1 2. 1965 () - . -, , -
. , , , .
1 , , , - ..
2 .: Manan M.A. IslamicSocioeconomic Institutions and Mobilization of Resources with Special Reference to Hall Management Fund ofMalaysia. Jeddah, 1997.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
108/176
1(43), 2006
108
() . 1975
, (), - . 1979 -. - , (). - , - , (1980).
, -, , - . .
2.
- ( ) , - , 1991 , - 1997 . , , , - , - , - 3. - , .
, - . , .. , , , . , - . , , , - , . - , , , , -
. 4. ..
, -
3 .. . .: - : / . .. . ., 2004. . 91.
4 . - . .: . ., 2004. . 4041.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
109/176
1(43), 2006
109
- - . , -
, . , - . - ( ) . , , , - , , - , , , , .
, , - (). (- )5.
. - , . - . - , , , . . , , , - . , . 6.
, - , 7, - , - GSM-, .
, , ( , , , , ), ( ).
.
, - -
. , 14 1992
5 - , () - (), . , - - -.
6 .: .. . . . 9192.7 -
.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
110/176
1(43), 2006
110
. - , , - -
, , -- . , - , . , - .
, -: - . - , , , . -, .
, - ,
-. - . - - , . , 2003 : , -- 8. - , , . 1990- 9.
3. . -
- - ( ), - .
- ( ) ( -). , , ... - -, 10. , - PR-,
. , - , 2005
8 .-. . .: - . . 116.
9 .: .. , // , 2003, 5 [www.strana-oz.ru].
10 .: . - . .: -. C. 31.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
111/176
1(43), 2006
111
500 ( 9 650 -), 10 -
11
. , - , 12. -
, 13. - - . - , , , .14
, 2004 . -, . -
, . , , - . , , .
() - , , , , - , - .. ( - -) , , - . , - . -, -
, , - 15.
, . -
11 .: // , 30 - 2004 [www.interfax.ru].
12 , , - - , , - (., : 6 2004 . [www.government.ru]).
13 - [www.tatar-inform.ru]; .
// , 6 2002, 179 (24735) [www.rt-online.ru]; .14 , 2004 , : - - -, - .
15 , - . , - , - . - , ().
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
112/176
1(43), 2006
112
, - . -
.
4.
2004 VII - .
, , . (, - , ) - (), , -
., , , - .
, - - 16. , - , - , , , , - , .
: (- , .. , ), , , -
, ( - ), ( ) . , , , .
, - . , , 1830 , , , . - . , , - , 17.
, , (), () (18181889). , - , -
16 .: VII [www.portal-credo.ru].
17 .: . ? // , 2005, 1 (54). . 3.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
113/176
1(43), 2006
113
. - , -
, , . XIX
- . - . - , , - . - , - . - (), - . , ,
, - . -, -- 18.
, , , - , (, , - () .). , , , , 19: , , , - , . , -
: , . (2:275).
, - . - - , , , - . - , (). ( ) - 20.
18 .: // : / . .. .
, 2004. . 49.19 , , . - , , -, : -, , , , , , (- 14.02.1998 . 14.02.1999 . , 1999. . 20.) -, , .
20 .: . . .: - : . . 41.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
114/176
1(43), 2006
114
- . ( 1993 .) -
. , , -, . - . . , 1998 , - ( ) . .
., 1990- - . , 28 1992 , ,
83,7% -, .
, , , -, 19501980- , . , .. - , , - - . , , . , - ( ), . 1960- .
, 1990- - , .. , . - :
n -, , - . () .
n -, . ( - ) ().
, -21. - . , -, , - .
21 -, ( - ) , -
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
115/176
1(43), 2006
115
- , 1913 63 985 , 5%
22
.n , , :
. (), , .
n -, (), - , - 23.
, , .
, .. ,
, , , , - 24. , , - - , , , ( -) .
, . , 24 2004 , - , - , - . ,
, - . , (), - .
, -. , , - . , 1990- ( - ) , , . . , 25.
, , , - , . -
. , - - - ( -Credo.Ru).
22 1913 . --, 1915. . 6. . : .. : ? .: . . 2. ., 2004. . 156. : 1/3 .
23 .: .. . . . 163164.24 .: . . 165.25 .: . . 162.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
116/176
1(43), 2006
116
. - ( , ) -
, , , , . () - , , . , , - ( ) , , , .
5.
- , . , , - , . , , , , , , 26. , , . , - . , , , , , - . - .
1970- - , . - . - : , -, - 27. , , 28.
. . , (, , ) 29. , , -
.
26 -. .: - : . ., 2001. . 76.
27 .: - [www.Takafol.ru]. . .
28 .: .., - .. . .: : . . 214232.
29 .: .. // -, 2 2004, 10 (140) [www.religion.ng.ru].
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
117/176
1(43), 2006
117
, . .
(17541834) - , , . , , , . , , : , , , , , , , , , (9:60).
2005 - . , , . , - , ., , ( ), , , - , 30.
, , - . , (, , .) - 31. , , , , (), 1/10 .
, , . -, . . , - . () : , . , 32.
6.
, , -
. , .
30 .: - . .: -: . . 83.
31 .: . . .: . . 69.
32 .: .. . .: . . 3. ., 2004. . 58.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
118/176
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
119/176
1(43), 2006
119
-
. . - : ; ; , , .
( -) , - . , - , , , - - , .
, , , ,
, - , - .
:
(-, )
; Sorenson Communications
(-, , )
. - -
- - -
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
120/176
1(43), 2006
120
. , , -. , , . , , - - -
, 1. , - 2. . , - , 80 , (, ) - : 3. - , , , 4.. , , , - ,
, . ,
, - -. -, , - . , - , - , - .
(- (IWPR)
[www.iwpr.net], [www.eurasianet.org] [www.irinnews.org]) - - . , . , - - , - .
1 .: U.S. State Department, International Religious Freedom Report, 8 November 2005.2 .: Melvin N. Patterns of Centre-Regional Relations in Central Asia: The Cases of Kazakhstan, the
Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan. .: Ethnicity and Territory in the Former Soviet Union: Regions in Conflict /Ed. by J. Hughes, G. Sasse. London: Frank Cass, 2002.
3Luong P. Institutional Change and Political Continuity in Post-Soviet Central Asia. Cambridge: CambridgeUniversity Press, 2002.
4 Khalid A. A Secular Islam: Nation, State and Religion in Uzbekistan // International Journal of MiddleEast Studies, 2003, No. 35.
-
7/30/2019 2006 01(43)
121/176
1(43), 2006
121
9
5
10
2
3
44
20
0
9
9
47
75
90
89
88
5. ( ) , -
( ), , ... - , , , -, 6.
. - (. . 1). , , 1991 , , . , 1989 2001 2,3 , 430 . , 431 . , 210 .
, 54 . . - - , , -, . - , , - . . : , - . - ... - , , . , 7.
1
(%)
: Freedom House (2005).
5Huskey E. An Economy of Authoritarianism? Askar Akaev and Presidential Leadership in Kyrgyzstan. .: Power and Change in Central Asia / Ed. by S. Cummings. London: Rutledge, 2002. P. 7980.
6 Cummings S., Ochs M. Turkmenistan: Saparmurat Niyazovs Inglorious Isolation. .: Power andChange in Central Asia. . 123.
7Peyrouse