2005 NCCI Holdings, Inc. Workers Compensation State of the Line 2006 CAS Ratemaking Seminar Jeff...

2005 NCCI Holdings, Inc.

Workers CompensationState of the Line

2006 CAS Ratemaking Seminar

Jeff Eddinger, FCAS, MAAAPractice Leader & Senior Actuary

2 2005 NCCI Holdings, Inc.

Source:

Property & Casualty Results


Source:

Line of Business (LOB) 2002 2003 2004p2003-2004p

ChangePersonal Auto $139.5 B $151.0 B $157.2 B 4.1%

Homeowners $40.0 B $45.7 B $49.5 B 8.4%

Other Liability (Incl Prod Liab) $30.9 B $37.8 B $42.7 B 12.9%

Workers Compensation $29.2 B $31.1 B $34.5 B 10.9%Commercial Multiple Peril $25.4 B $27.4 B $28.9 B 5.4%

Commercial Auto $24.5 B $25.4 B $26.8 B 5.4%

Fire & Allied Lines (Incl EQ) $15.4 B $17.6 B $18.0 B 2.3%

All Other Lines $64.9 B $69.0 B $65.9 B -4.5%

Total All Lines 369.8 B$ 405.0 B$ 423.5 B$ 4.6%

P/C Industry Net Written Premium Growth By Line

Private Carriers

p Preliminary

Source: 2002-2003, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages; 2004p Total, ISO; 2004p LOB, NCCI


Source:

Line of Business (LOB)

Personal Auto 104% 98% 94%

Homeowners 109% 98% 95%

Other Liability (Incl Prod Liab) 137% 114% 117%

Workers CompensationCommercial Multiple Peril 105% 101% 100%

Commercial Auto 103% 95% 92%

Fire & Allied Lines (Incl EQ) 89% 79% 88%

All Other Lines 105% 100% 99%

Total All Lines 107% 100% 98%

2002 2003 2004p

111% 109% 105%

P/C Industry Net Combined Ratios Improved Modestly in 2004

Private Carriers

p Preliminary

Source: 2002-2003, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages; 2004p Total, ISO; 2004p LOB, NCCI


Source:

116

110

116

102

110

116

10098

105105

109 109

106106

107107 107108 108109

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004p

Percent

%Due toSeptember 11

1985-2003 Average: 108.1%

Calendar Year

P/C Industry Calendar YearCombined Ratios

Private Carriers

p Preliminary

Source: 1985-2003, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages; 2004p, ISO


Source:

18.717.3 17.3

16.517.6

19.318.0

16.917.9

19.320.9

18.319.3

12.0 11.7 11.9

15.314.5 14.214.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004p

Net Realized Capital Gains to NEPNet Investment Income to NEP

1985-2003 Average Net Investment Gain: 16.8%

Calendar Yearp Preliminary

Source: 1985-2003, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages; 2004p, ISO

Investment Gain Ratio Remains Below Historical Averages

Private Carriers

Percent


Source:

2.8

15.113.9 13.4

9.78.0

9.6

3.6

11.2

5.8

9.7 10.1

13.1

9.6

3.3

9.610.5

-2.2

6.6 6.4

-6

0

6

12

18

19851986

19871988

19891990

19911992

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004p

1985-2003 Average: 8.4%

Calendar Yearp PreliminarySource: 1985-2003, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages; 2004p After-Tax Net Income, ISO;

2004p Surplus, 2003 A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages Private Carrier Surplus + 2004 ISO contributions to surplusNote: After-tax return on average surplus, including realized capital gains

Return on Surplus for P/C IndustryIncreased Slightly in 2004

Annual After-Tax Return on Surplus—Private Carriers

Percent


Source:

Workers Compensation Results


Source:

31.0 31.3

26.3 25.2 24.2 23.3 22.325.0 26.1

29.331.1

34.5

29.130.529.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

WC Net Written Premium ($ B)

Workers Compensation PremiumContinued to Rise in 2004

Private Carriers$ Billions

Calendar Yearp Preliminary

Source: 1990-2003, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages; 2004p, NCCI


Source:

117123 122

109102

97 100 101107

115 118122

111 109105

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

Loss LAE Underwriting Expense Dividends

1.9% Due to September 11Percent

WC Calendar Year Combined Ratio Continued Its Modest Decline in 2004

Private Carriers

p Preliminary

Source: 1990-2003, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages; 2004p, NCCI

Calendar Year


Source:

13.014.0

18.116.7

14.4

16.817.6

20.421.3

20.519.5

14.0

10.7 10.4 10

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990* 1991* 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

Percent

Low Workers Compensation InvestmentReturns Continued in 2004

Investment Gain on Insurance Transactions to Premium RatioPrivate Carriers

Calendar Yearp Preliminary* Adjusted to include realized capital gains to be consistent with 1992 and afterInvestment Gain on Insurance Transactions includes Other IncomeSource: 1990-2003, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages; 2004p, NCCI


Source:

7.5

12.8

19.717.9

19.8

13.9

5.2

1.5 1.0

5

0.0

-7.5

-3.4

-8.7

-4.2

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990* 1991* 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

Percent

Calendar Yearp Preliminary* Adjusted to include realized capital gains to be consistent with 1992 and afterOperating Gain equals 1.00 minus (Combined Ratio less Investment Gain on Insurance Transactions and Other Income)Source: 1990-2003, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages; 2004p, NCCI

2004 Workers CompensationResults Improved Over 2003

Pre-Tax Operating Gain Ratio—Private Carriers


Source:

103 102

113

118122

127

114

109

10098

94

112114

118

113

107104

101

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

Countrywide

NCCI States

Percent

Workers Compensation Calendar Year Direct Combined Ratios

Countrywide and NCCI States—Private Carriers

p PreliminarySource: 1996-2003 Countrywide, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages;

1996-2003 NCCI States, Statutory Page 14 and Insurance Expense Exhibit; 2004p, NCCI

Calendar Year


Source:

28.427.0 25.9

28.5

32.0

37.5

42.0

46.0

25.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

25.2 24.2 26.129.2 31.1

34.5

23.3 22.325.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

State Funds ($ B)

Private Carriers ($ B)

$ Billions

p PreliminarySource: 1996-2003 Private Carriers, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages; 2004p, NCCI

1996-2004p State Funds: AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, KY, LA, MO, MT, NM, OK, OR, RI, TX, UT Annual Statements

Workers Compensation PremiumVolume Continues to Grow

Private Carriers and State Funds

Calendar Year


Source:

100 101

107

115118

122

111 109105

112

119

143147

144

115 114 116 118119

128

141144

136

116 117

103 101

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

Private Carriers NCCI Affiliated State Funds State Funds

Percent

Calendar Year

Workers Compensation Calendar YearNet Combined Ratios


p PreliminarySource: 1996-2003 Private Carriers, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages; 2004p, NCCI



Source:

19.8

13.9

5.2

1.5

-7.5

1.00.31.9

-2.1

8.7

3.8

-0.4

7.65.8

-6.0-7.5 -7.5

-0.7 -1.2

6.25

17.9

0.0

16.9

1

18.1

8

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

Private Carriers NCCI Affiliated State Funds State Funds

1996-2003 AveragesPrivate Carriers: +6.5%NCCI Affiliated State Funds: +5.9%State Funds: -0.4%

Percent

Workers Compensation Pre-Tax Operating Gain Ratios


p PreliminaryOperating Gain equals 1.00 minus (Combined Ratio less Investment Gain on Insurance Transactions and Other Income)Source: 1996-2003 Private Carriers, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages; 2004p, NCCI


Calendar Year


Source:

Workers Compensation

Accident Year Results

And

Reserve Estimates


Source:

p PreliminaryAccident Year data is evaluated as of 12/31/2004 and developed to ultimateSource: Calendar Years 1995-2003, A.M. Best Aggregates & Averages;

Calendar Year 2004p and Accident Years 1995-2004p, NCCIIncludes dividends to policyholders

Accident Year Combined RatioAnother Underwriting Profit in 2004

Workers Compensation Calendar Year vs.Ultimate Accident Year – Private CarriersPercent

97100 101

107

115118

122

111109

105

100

106

120

131

139135

126

106

98

94

90

100

110

120

130

140

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

Calendar Year Accident Year


Source:

15

18

2021

18

15

12

2

5

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

$ Billions

Workers Compensation Reserve Deficiencies Continue to Decline

Private Carriers

Loss and LAE Reserve Deficiency Through Year Endp Preliminary

Difference between NCCI estimated ultimate losses and LAE as of 12/31/2004 and reported in Schedule P

$5 billion of the Reserve Deficiencyin 2004 is due to Tabular Discounts


Source:

p PreliminaryReported Loss and LAE reserves from Schedule PSource: 1995-2004p, NAIC Annual Statement insurance data

Workers Compensation AccidentYear Loss & LAE Ratios

Private CarriersPercent

Accident Year

78 7779

8184

83 83

7577

69

73

85

94

10098

86

7673

74

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

At First Report

As of 12/31/2004


Source:


Premium Drivers


Source:

12.1

7.4

10.0

2.9 3.5

1.2

4.9

6.6

-0.9

-6.4

-3.2

-6.0

-8.0

-5.4

-2.6

-6.0

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005*

Cumulative 1990-1993

+36.3%


-27.8%

Average Approved BureauRates/Loss Costs

History of Average WC Bureau Rate/Loss Cost Level ChangesPercent


+17.1%

Cumulative

2004-2005

-6.8%

Calendar Year* States approved through 04/15/2005Countrywide approved changes in advisory rates, loss costs and assigned risk rates as filed by the applicable rating organization


Source:

-5.1-3.0

-2.0 -1.8-1.5-1.3 -1.1-1.0-0.7 -0.3

0.0 0.1 0.61.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.4 3.9 4.9 5.3 5.5 6.3 6.5

8.8

12.0

11.2 11.4

-20.2

12.1

-6.5

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

RI CONV

FL HI SD DC AR MO IA GA AL CT OR IL MS KS NC ME LA AZIN

NH MD TN NEVA

ID OK KY VT NM UT SC AK MT

Current NCCI Voluntary Market Approved Rate/Loss Cost Changes

Excludes Law-Only FilingsPercent

States approved through 04/15/2005


Source:

73.7%

6.7%

2.4%17.2%

Wages and Salaries

Health Insurance


All Other

Employer Costs As Percentage ofTotal Compensation

Private Industry

1994 2004

All Other includes Paid Leave, Insurance (other than Health), Social Security, Retirement and SavingsSource: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics

7.3%

17.8%1.8%

73.1%


Source:

-7.1 -7.5 -7.0-8.5

-10.4

-14.6

-17.7

-22.6

-19.2

-14.2

-4.0-0.2

-23.2

-1.6

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

Rate/Loss Cost Departure Schedule Rating Dividends

Percent

Impact of Discounting on Workers Compensation Premium

NCCI States—Private Carriers

p PreliminaryNCCI benchmark level does not include an underwriting contingency provisionDividend ratios are based on calendar year statisticsBased on data through 12/31/2004 for the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services

Policy Year


Source:


Loss Drivers


Source:

$9

.7

$9

.4

$9

.1

$9

.6

$9

.7

$1

0.3

$1

1.1

$1

2.1

$1

3.3

$1

4.7

$1

6.1

$1

6.5

$1

7.2

$1

7.9

+4.2%+4.6%

+2.4%+9.0%

+11.2%

+9.9%

+8.5%+7.7%

+5.9%+1.7%+4.9%

-2.8%-3.1%+1.0%

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

IndemnityClaim Cost (000s)

Annual Change 1991–1995: +0.3%Annual Change 1996–2003: +7.4%

2004p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/20041991-2003: Based on data through 12/31/2003, developed to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking servicesExcludes the effects of deductible policies

The Growth in WC Indemnity ClaimCosts Has Eased in Recent Years

Lost–Time Claims

Accident Year


Source:

Indemnity severity 2004p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2004Indemnity severity 1995-2003: Based on data through 12/31/2003, developed to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services, excludes the effects of deductible policiesSource: Calendar year Current Population Survey, Economy.com; Accident year indemnity severity, NCCI

2.8 2.8

4.04.7

4.24.9

4.2

2.2 2.01.7

5.9

7.78.5

9.9

11.2

9.0

2.4

4.64.2

2.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

Change in CPS Wage Change in Indemnity Cost per Lost-Time Claim

Percent Change

Workers Compensation Indemnity Severity Is Outpacing Wage Inflation

Lost–Time Claims

Year


Source:

Annual Change 1991–1995: +3.9%Annual Change 1996–2003: +9.3%

WC Medical Claim Cost TrendsDouble-Digit Growth Continued in 2004

Lost–Time ClaimsMedicalClaim Cost (000s)

Accident Year

$8

.0

$8

.2

$8

.0

$8

.7

$9

.1

$9

.8

$1

0.8

$1

1.6

$1

2.8

$1

3.9

$1

5.5

$1

6.8

$1

8.7

$2

0.6

+10.5%

+10.9

+8.4%

+11.9%

+8.5%+9.9%

+7.6%+10.1%

+7.4%+5.1%+9.0%

-2.1%+1.3%+6.8%

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p



Source:

4.53.6

2.83.2 3.5

4.14.6 4.7

4.0

5.1

7.4

10.1

7.6

9.9

8.5

11.9

8.4

10.9 10.5

4.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

Change in Medical CPI Change in Medical Cost per Lost-Time Claim

Workers Compensation Medical Severity Has Been Growing Much

Faster Than the Medical CPILost–Time ClaimsPercent Change

Medical severity 2004p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2004Medical severity 1995-2003: Based on data through 12/31/2003, developed to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services, excludes the effects of deductible policiesSource: Calendar year Current Population Survey, Economy.com; Accident year medical severity, NCCI

Year


Source:

3.2 3.54.1 4.6 4.7

7.6

9.9

8.5

11.9

8.4

12.9

15.1

12.4

14.9

11.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Change in Medical CPIChange in Medical Cost per Lost-Time ClaimChange in Rx Drug Costs per Lost-Time Claim

Percent Change

Drug Costs Are Increasing More Rapidly Than Total WC Medical Costs

Year

Medical severity: Based on data through 12/31/2003, developed to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services, excludes the effects of deductible policiesSource: Calendar year Current Population Survey, Economy.com; Accident year medical severity, NCCI; Accident year

Rx Drug Costs, NCCI estimate based on sample data provided by carriers


Source:

Workers Compensation Medical Losses Are More Than Half of Total Losses

All Claims—NCCI States

44%56%

1984

MedicalIndemnity

1994

51% 49%

Indemnity Medical

2004p

43% 57%Indemnity Medical

2004p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/20041984, 1994: Based on data through 12/31/2003, developed to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking servicesExcludes the effects of deductible policies


Source:

-4.2 -4.4

-9.2

-6.3

-4.2-3.7 -3.4

0.3

-6.5

-4.5

0.5

-3.9

-2.3

-4.5

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

Cumulative Change of –42.0%(1990-2003)

Percent Change

Workers Compensation Lost-Time Claim Frequency Continues Its Decline

Lost-Time Claims

Accident Year2004p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/20041991-2003: Based on data through 12/31/2003, developed to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking servicesExcludes the effects of deductible policies


Source:

-24%-21%-15%-22%-8%

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Fatal PermanentTotal

PermanentPartial

TemporaryTotal

Medical OnlyPe

rce

nt

Ch

an

ge

in L

os

t-T

ime

Cla

im F

req

ue

nc

y

Smallest 1/3 of Claims within Injury Type

Middle 1/3 of Claims within Injury Type

Largest 1/3 of Claims within Injury Type

Percent Change Between Policies Expiring in 1999 and 2003

Change in Lost-Time Claim Frequency By Injury Type and by Size of Loss Group

Loss Size Adjustments: 4.2% Indemnity, 7.4% MedicalFrequency = Lost-time claims / payroll; Payroll adjusted for inflationClaim count determined at 1st report. NCCI States only, excluding Texas


Source:

$1

2.1

$1

3.3

$1

4.7

$1

6.1

$1

6.5

$1

7.2

$1

7.9

+4.2%+4.6%

+2.4%+9.0%+11.2%

+9.9%+8.5%

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p


Workers Compensation Indemnity Claim Costs

Lost–Time Claims

Accident Year

Annual Change Before Adjustment for Claim Size, 1998-2002: +8.1%



Source:

$1

2.1

$1

2.9

$1

4.0

$1

4.8

$1

4.7 ? ?

? ?

+4.2%+4.6%

+2.4%+9.0%+11.2%

+9.9%+8.5%

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p


Annual Change Before Adjustment for Frequency by Size, 1998-2002: +8.1%Annual Change After Adjustment for Frequency by Size, 1998-2002: +5.1%

Impact of Changes in Claim Size Distribution on Indemnity Claim Costs

Lost–Time Claims

Accident Year2004p: Preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/20041998-2003: Based on data through 12/31/2003, developed to ultimateBased on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking servicesExcludes the effects of deductible policies


Source:

$1

1.6

$1

2.8

$1

3.9

$1

5.5

$1

6.8

$1

8.7

$2

0.6

+10.5%

+10.9%

+8.4%+11.9%

+8.5%+9.9%

+7.6%

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

Workers Compensation Medical Claim Costs

Lost–Time Claims

Accident Year

Annual Change Before Adjustment for Claim Size, 1998-2002: +9.7%

MedicalClaim Cost (000s)



Source:

$1

1.6

$1

2.5

$1

3.4

$1

4.6

$1

5.6

??

?

?

+7.6%+9.9%

+8.5%

+11.9%+8.4%

+10.9%

+10.5%

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004p

Annual Change Before Adjustment for Frequency by Size, 1998-2002: +9.7%Annual Change After Adjustment for Frequency by Size, 1998-2002: +7.7%

Impact of Changes in Claim Size Distribution on Medical Claim Costs

Lost–Time Claims

Accident Year

MedicalClaim Cost (000s)



Source:

Workers CompensationResidual Market


Source:

1.2

2.12.6

2.8

3.54.0

4.44.8

4.1

3.1

2.0

1.00.6

0.3 0.3 0.40.6

1.11.4 1.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Workers Compensation Residual Market Premium Volume

NCCI-Serviced Workers Compensation Residual Market PoolsAs of December 31, 2004

$ Billions

Policy Year

* Excludes Maine Residual Market Pool** Incomplete Policy Year Projected to Ultimate


Source:

Workers Compensation Residual Market Shares Continue to Rise

Workers Compensation Insurance Plan States* Premium As a Percent of Direct Written Premium

9

1618 17

2224

2629 28

24

17

11

8

4 3 3

13

5

1112

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Percent

Calendar Year

p Preliminary* NCCI Plan states plus DE, IN, MA, MI, NJ, NC


Source:

176

164168 166

159

143

127

112103

98 94 98 102

115119 118 116114 115 113

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

19851986

19871988*

1989*

1990*

1991*

1992*

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004**

Workers Compensation Residual Market Combined Ratios

NCCI-Serviced Workers Compensation Residual Market Pools As of December 31, 2004

Percent

Policy Year



Source:

-922

-1,361

-1,777-1,883

-2,063

-1,687

-1,190

-553

-141-14 -50 -53 -63

-240-85 -164 -174

71 11816

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

Workers Compensation Residual Market Underwriting Results

NCCI-Serviced Workers Compensation Residual Market PoolsAs of December 31, 2004

$ Millions

Policy Year



Source:

Residual Market ProgramsMitigate the Burden

Pricing Programs:– Differential/Surcharge

– ARAP/SARAP

– Removal/Reduction ofPremium Discount

– LSRP

Depopulation Mechanisms:– Take-Out Credit Program– Voluntary Compensation Assistance Program

Improved Controls:– Paid Loss Ratio Incentive Program– Heightened carrier audit process

Improved Efficiency:– Servicing carrier bid process

ARAP: Assigned Risk Adjustment ProgramSARAP: Simplified Assigned Risk Adjustment ProgramLSRP: Loss Sensitive Rating Plan


Source:

In Summary

Negatives

• Low investment returns continue to put pressure on underwriting results

• Medical severity continues rapid growth

• Calendar year results lag behind other lines

Positives

• Results are improving

• Frequency continues to decline

• Industry making progress on reserve deficiency

• Residual Market burden still manageable


Source:

End of Presentation

Thank You

2005 NCCI Holdings, Inc. Workers Compensation State of the Line 2006 CAS Ratemaking Seminar Jeff...

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