© 2001 Six Sigma Academy© 2003 Six Sigma Academy1 Bank Exercise Champion Workshop.

1© 2001 Six Sigma Academy© 2003 Six Sigma Academy

Bank Exercise

Champion Workshop

2© 2001-2003 Six Sigma Academy

Why use simulation?

In very general and abstract terms, simulation is used to• Describe behavior of physical and business systems• Construct hypotheses or theories to explain behaviors• Predict behavior of future systems• Perform what-if scenarios for existing and proposed designs


Why use simulation in DFSS?

Specifically, in DFSS and business context, simulation is used to• Study designs before piloting or modification• Manage risk by preventing defects and reducing costs• Eliminate unforeseen barriers, bottlenecks and design flaws• Allocate necessary resources to assure stakeholder satisfaction• Build predictable, controllable and optimal designs• Facilitate communication among multifunctional team


What is simulation?

A useful definition:

Simulation is a disciplined process of building a model of an existing or proposed real system and performing experiments with this model to analyze and understand behavior of selected characteristics of real system so as to evaluate various operational strategies to manage real system

We will dissect this long sentence to make sense.


Simulation as a Disciplined Process

Simulation is a disciplined process of building a model of an existing or proposed real system….• Simulation has to be designed and performed in a systematic fashion• A model is an approximation of part of a real system.

• Model building is an important step. Necessary but not sufficient• A model is not simulation in itself. We simulate a model.

Model Rev 1

Real System Existing or ProposedProduct or Process


Simulation as a Means to an End

• Simulation is a disciplined process of building a model of an existing or proposed real system and performing experiments with this model to analyze and understand behavior of selected characteristics of real system …...

Model Rev 1

Experiment Analyze

Understand

Real System Existing or ProposedProduct or Process It is impossible to replicate all of

reality in simulation. Only a handful of selected characteristics can beadequately modeled and analyzedto provide meaningful results.


What is simulation?

• Simulation is a disciplined process of building a model of an existing or proposed real system and performing experiments with this model to analyze and understand behavior of selected characteristics of real system so as to evaluate various operational strategies to manage real system

Model Rev 1

Experiment Analyze

Understand


Real System Managed or Modified


Simulation as an Iteration

Simulation process is not a one time deal. Simulation is revised and enhanced as our understanding of the system increases with each iteration

Model Rev 1

Experiment Analyze

Understand

Model Rev 2

Experiment Analyze

Understand

Model Rev n

Experiment Analyze

Understand


Real System Managed or Modified


How Simulation is Used in DFSS

• Estimate behavior and performance of existing or proposed designs• Combine sub-designs logically to study complex systems• Quantify risk of proposed design changes• Locate areas of leverage, costs and values systematically• Compare behavior and performance of alternate designs • Redesign system to meet design intent

Identify ValidateDesign Optimize

Cust & BizRequirements

Definition

Gate

1

Gate

2

Gate

3

Gate

4

Gate

5

Gate

6

ConceptualDesign andFeasibility

PreliminaryDesign

Detail Design

Product& ProcessValidation

Transition

Gate

7

Gate

0

Prototype/Pilot


When is Simulation used in DFSS?

• Simulation is used throughout DFSS process, but especially in• Preliminary design – to select effective designs• Detail design – to optimize selected design

Example Preliminary Design Detailed Design

Business Select way to merge Scheduling work forceApplication multiple service centers Layout of calling station

Select type and location Menu of food itemsfor a new restaurant Kitchen layout

Product Selection of Engine Design of fuel linesApplication Diesel, fuel injection etc Dimensions of cylinders

Bridge type: steel, concrete Design of connectionsLocation, number of lanes Foundation dimensions


Use of Simulation in Preliminary Design

• Determine if proposed preliminary design meets functional requirements

• Evaluate how high level design (structure) and inputs will impact overall system output and performance

• Compare performance of high level design alternatives• Assemble behavior of sub-elements to predict overall performance• Perform sensitivity analysis to study importance of sub-elements• Redesign product and service as needed

Simulation shows if preliminary design model can potentially meet functional requirements


Use of Simulation in Detailed Design

• Determine if proposed detailed designs support overall design• Assess risk of failure of sub-elements in providing system integrity • Evaluate how sub-elements impact overall design performance• Compare performance of detailed design alternatives• Perform sensitivity analysis to study critical system attributes• Redesign sub-systems as needed

Simulation enables optimization of detailed design model


General Areas of Applications

• Operations management of complex process systems• Design of production and queuing systems• Capacity planning and inventory control• Resource and project scheduling

• Physical sciences, pharmaceuticals, engineering and manufacturing• Social sciences, economics and policy making• Ecological, biological, epidemic and environmental studies• Financial applications: fiscal products and management

• Bank operations, transactional processes, loan management

Where does it not apply? It Applies to All Situations.


Simulation Exercise and Example 1

SigmaBank prides itself for giving personable service to its customers. Currently there is only one teller, Pat. There is a belief that customers have to wait too long. Customers arrive every 7 minutes and teller services take 3.5 minutes. SigmaBank wants to know the following:

• What percentage of customers have to wait?• What is average wait time? Maximum? Minimum?• What is duration of an average customer visit? Max? Min?• How busy is our teller, Pat? (% utilization)

How do you plan to proceed? Take 5 minutes to answer these questions. Discuss. Do answers appear real? Explain.


Simulation Example 2

SigmaBank prides itself for giving personable service to its customers. Currently there is only one teller, Pat. There is a belief that customers have to wait too long. Customers seem to arrive anywhere between 2 to 12 minutes and teller services take anywhere from 1 to 6 minutes. SigmaBank wants to know the following:

• What are average arrival and service times now?• What percentage of our customers have to wait in this scenario?• What is average wait time? Max? Min?• What is duration of an average customer visit now?• How busy is our teller, Pat?

First, take a few minutes to jot down your answers to the above questions. How will you check your answers?


Simulation Steps

Project Definition 1 Assemble multifunction team2 Define simulation objective3 Define system boundaries and scope4 Establish project plan

Problem Definition 5 Identify and formulate problem6 Formulate conceptual model

Data Definition 7 Establish DOE scheme8 Collect system data9 Prepare and process data

Model Definition 10 Model translation11 Verification and Validation

Experimentation 12 Set experimental conditions13 Perform simulation runs

Output Analysis 14 Analyze output15 Interpret and present results

Implementation 16 Document results and actions17 Outline next steps

© 2001 Six Sigma Academy© 2003 Six Sigma Academy1 Bank Exercise Champion Workshop.

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Transcript of © 2001 Six Sigma Academy© 2003 Six Sigma Academy1 Bank Exercise Champion Workshop.