- 1 - EMCDDA Conference: 'Identifying Europe's information needs for effective drug policy' 'What is...

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- 1 - EMCDDA Conference: EMCDDA Conference: 'Identifying Europe's information needs for 'Identifying Europe's information needs for effective drug policy' effective drug policy' 'What is happening to heroin? 'What is happening to heroin? Methodological challenges in Methodological challenges in understanding understanding trends in heroin production and supply‘ trends in heroin production and supply‘ By By Dr. Thomas Pietschmann Dr. Thomas Pietschmann Policy Analysis and Research Branch Policy Analysis and Research Branch UNODC UNODC Lisbon, 6-8 May 2009 Lisbon, 6-8 May 2009

Transcript of - 1 - EMCDDA Conference: 'Identifying Europe's information needs for effective drug policy' 'What is...

Page 1: - 1 - EMCDDA Conference: 'Identifying Europe's information needs for effective drug policy' 'What is happening to heroin? Methodological challenges in.

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EMCDDA Conference: EMCDDA Conference: 'Identifying Europe's information needs for effective drug policy' 'Identifying Europe's information needs for effective drug policy'

'What is happening to heroin? 'What is happening to heroin? Methodological challenges in understanding Methodological challenges in understanding

trends in heroin production and supply‘trends in heroin production and supply‘

ByByDr. Thomas Pietschmann Dr. Thomas Pietschmann

Policy Analysis and Research BranchPolicy Analysis and Research BranchUNODCUNODC

Lisbon, 6-8 May 2009Lisbon, 6-8 May 2009

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28,500

160,000

130,300

27,70021,50032,800

29,625

26,837

1,5002,500

157,000

63,674

104,000

165,000

193,000

50,800 201,000

142,100

281,600

235,700

151,500

237,800

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Hec

tare

s

Myanmar Lao PDR Afghanistan Rest of the world Total Trend

Global opium poppy cultivation, 1990-2008

Source: UNODC, 2008 World Drug Report, June 2008 and UNODC Surveys .

-15%*

* Preliminary estimates

Comparisons:Comparisons: Greater London: 157,900 ha Greater London: 157,900 ha New York City: 95,300 ha New York City: 95,300 ha Berlin: 89,200 ha Berlin: 89,200 ha Vienna: 41,500 haVienna: 41,500 haLisbon: City: 8,480 ha Lisbon: City: 8,480 ha Metro: Metro: 295,740 ha 295,740 ha

Mauritius: Mauritius: 204,000 ha 204,000 haComoros: 186,200 haComoros: 186,200 haHong Kong: 109,500 haHong Kong: 109,500 haBahrain: Bahrain: 71,600 ha 71,600 haMalta: 31,600 haMalta: 31,600 ha

Montenegro: 1,381,200 haMontenegro: 1,381,200 haJamaica: 1,099,100 haJamaica: 1,099,100 haSingapore: Singapore: 682,700 ha682,700 ha Brunei Darussalam: Brunei Darussalam: 576,500 ha576,500 haCape Verde: Cape Verde: 403,600 ha403,600 haLuxembourg: Luxembourg: 258,600 ha 258,600 ha

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Global illicit opium production, 1990-2008

7,700

3,416

8,200

6,100

4,100

2,693

4,565

410

1,583

1,303

312

315

460

895

6,610

4,3464,691 4,620

1,630

8,870

5,7645,620

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,00019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Met

ric

tons

Afghanistan Myanmar Lao PDR Rest of the world Total

Sources: UNODC, 2008 World Drug Report and UNODC 2008 Opium Surveys in Afghanistan, Myanmar, Laos.

-6%*

* Preliminary estimates.

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Survey methodology

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Methodology:

Sampling approach combines analysis of satellite images and extensive field work

Poppy cultivation estimate: IKONOS satellite images (4 m resolution in 2004; 1 m resolution in 2008)

Sampling frame: 23 Landsat 7 satellite images (30 m resolution)

Afghanistan Opium Survey: ground surveys 1994-2001; satellite/ground surveys 2002-2008

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Irrigated agricultural land

4 km

River

Opium fields(artificialcolor)

Low density area in Mihtarlam district, Laghman Province (4 m resolution satellite image IKONOS)

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OPIUM SURVEYOPIUM SURVEYSatellite surveySatellite survey: : • 21 provinces covered (up from 19 provinces in 2006), out of 3421 provinces covered (up from 19 provinces in 2006), out of 34• 118 survey blocks of 10 km x 10 km covered with total of 236 images118 survey blocks of 10 km x 10 km covered with total of 236 images• Very high resolution satellite images used (IKONOS); 1 m resolutionVery high resolution satellite images used (IKONOS); 1 m resolution

Village surveyVillage survey::• All 34 provinces coveredAll 34 provinces covered• 134 local field surveyors134 local field surveyors• 1,529 villages visited (4.9% of all villages)1,529 villages visited (4.9% of all villages)• 1,529 village headmen and 3,050 farmers interviewed (socio-economic)1,529 village headmen and 3,050 farmers interviewed (socio-economic)• Basis for poppy cultivation estimate for 13 provinces not covered by satellite Basis for poppy cultivation estimate for 13 provinces not covered by satellite imagery imagery

ERADICATION VERIFICATION SURVEYERADICATION VERIFICATION SURVEY::• All 17 provinces with reported Governor-led eradication coveredAll 17 provinces with reported Governor-led eradication covered• 131 eradication verifiers and 27 eradication survey coordinators131 eradication verifiers and 27 eradication survey coordinators

Survey methodology (2008)

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Sampling frame and selected cells for satellite survey, 2008Sampling frame Sampling frame (arable land): (arable land):

based on Landsat-7 based on Landsat-7 images (2002/03) and images (2002/03) and Landsat-7 EMT 2006 Landsat-7 EMT 2006

Coverage: Coverage:

7% of arable land in 21 provinces7% of arable land in 21 provinces

Opium poppy Opium poppy identification: identification:

based on 236 high-based on 236 high-resolution (1m) resolution (1m) satellite images satellite images

(IKONOS; 10*10 km(IKONOS; 10*10 km22) ) for 118 locations for 118 locations

covering 21 covering 21 provincesprovinces

Higher proportions in key provinces:Higher proportions in key provinces:Nangarhar: 25%Nangarhar: 25%Nimroz: 18%Nimroz: 18%Kandahar: 13%Kandahar: 13%Helmand: 16%Helmand: 16%

Accuracy of Accuracy of identification: identification:

95% - ground truthing 95% - ground truthing of 3560 fieldsof 3560 fields

Result: Result: 157,000 ha157,000 ha

90% probability: 130,000 ha - 190,000 ha

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Village sampling frame and selected villages, 2008Sampling frame (all Sampling frame (all

villages): villages): 31,23031,230

Selected villages: Selected villages: 1,529 (4.9%)1,529 (4.9%)

in 357 districtsin 357 districts

Interviews: Interviews: 3,050 farmers and 3,050 farmers and

1,529 headmen1,529 headmenon various socio-on various socio-economic issues economic issues

by 134 field by 134 field surveyors and surveyors and

ground survey in ground survey in 13 provinces13 provinces

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29,0

00

25,0

00

32,0

00

34,0

00 54,0

00

57,0

00

58,0

00

64,0

00

91,0

00

82,0

00

8,00

0

74,0

00

80,0

00

131,

000

104,

000

165,

000 19

3,00

0

157,

000

71,0

00

58,0

00

49,0

00

51,0

00

41,0

00

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

he

cta

res

Opium poppy cultivation trends in Afghanistan, 1986-2009Opium poppy cultivation trends in Afghanistan, 1986-2009

Soviet period Warlord period Taliban period new Afghan Govt.

?

-19%

Sources: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008 and UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment, January 2009.

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2006

2007 2008

Increase in poppy free provinces 2006-2008

6 provinces in 2006 13 ………….... 200718 ……………. 2008

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36,6

21

4,09

5

8,31

2 20,5

81

1,15

1

4,73

3

106

337

500

310

16,5

93

9,00

9 15,3

36

4,85

3

200

13,7

89 25,0

40

19,2

67

4,88

2

766

10,5

31 19,5

10

19,8

20 28,6

19

22,0

66

48,3

69

101,

900

133,

546

132,

760

46,1

47

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

hect

ares

Eastern Region Central Region North-Eastern Region

Northern Region Western Region Southern Region

Regional dynamics of opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan (ha), 2004-2008

Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008

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98% 98% in 7 in 7

provinces of provinces of south & south & south-south-

western western AfghanistanAfghanistan

Afghanistan – opium poppy cultivation in 2008

Area under poppy cultivation:

157,000 ha

Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008

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Opium poppy cultivation trends in 2009 (Rapid Assessment)

Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment, January 2009

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Strong positive correlation

between security and non-cultivation of opium in 2009

Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment, January 2009

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Opium, morphine and heroin production

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Yield SurveyYield measurement (data for 2008): Yield measurement (data for 2008):

17,541 capsules from 1,707 plots from 569 fieldsin 198 villages

Yield: 42.5 kg/ha in 2007 90% CI: 41.5-43.5 kg/ha

48.8 kg/ha in 2008 90% CI: 47.1-50.4 kg/ha

Yield (Y): based on non-rectangular hyperbola:VC: Mature poppy capsule volume (cm3/m2)

Yield formula (non-rectangular hyperbola)

0102030405060

0 500 1000 1500mature capsule volume (cm3 / m2)

Dry

opi

um y

ield

(k

g / h

a)

Total productionTotal production: 8,200 tons in 2007 90% CI: 7,530-8,960 tons 7,700 tons in 2008 90% CI: 6,330-9,310 tons

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160

6,10

0

8,20

0

7,70

0

200

350

450

488

275

225

200

875

1,12

0

1,20

0

1,60

0

2,00

0

2,00

0

2,30

0

3,4

00

2,30

0

2,20

0 2,80

0

2,70

0

4,60

0

3,30

0

3,40

0

3,60

0 4,20

0

4,10

0

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

met

ric

ton

s

Afghanistan opium production, 1980-2009

-6%

Soviet period Warlord period Taliban period new Afghan Govt.

?

Sources: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008 and UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment, January 2009.

,

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60% (= 4,438 tons of opium) refined in Afghanistan

required: some 11,000 tons of chemicals

incl. 1,200 tons of acetic anhydride(range: 630–2,520 tons of acetic anhydride)

Manufacturing of Afghan morphine/heroin in 2008

Opium produced: 7,676 tonsless seizures: 123 tons less consumption: 156 tons----------------------------------------------------Available for export: 7,397 tons

630 tons of morphine / heroin

for export

7:1 ratio

Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008

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Laboratories, markets, border crossings, 2008

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Opiate prices

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Opium production and fresh farm-gate prices, 1997-2008

2,804 2,693

4,565

3,278

185

3,4003,600

4,200 4,100

6,100

8,200

7,700

34 3340

28

301

250

283

92102

9486

70

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

opiu

m p

rodu

ctio

n in

met

ric

tons

0

100

200

300

fres

h fa

rmga

te o

pium

pri

ce

in U

S$/k

g at

har

vest

tim

e

Prices

Production

Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008

Indication of stocks

Price information collected from some 3,000 farmers in some 1,500 villages across the country

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Dry opium prices at trader level in Nangarhar and Kandahar, March 1997-March 2009

$102

$73

July 2000 poppy ban announced

Sept 11, 2001 Jan 02: New poppy ban

Aug 02: renewal of poppy ban

Autumn 2004; Fear of large-scale eradication

Growing opium production in southern Afghanistan (2005, 2006, 2007; stable in 2008); rising stocks, 2006-08

2005: Eastern Afghanistan: reductions of opium production

Growing opium harvests in 2002, 2003 and 2004

Start of air strikes

1999 peak production in 1990s

2006/2007: Eastern Afghanistan: rise in opium production

Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Price Monitoring, March 2009 and previous years

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Average dry opium prices in Afghanistan, October 2004-March 2007

-17%-15%

-23%

-1%

Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Price Monitoring, March 2009 and previous years

Information collected each month from some 200 farmers and some 190 traders in 15 provinces (out of 34 provinces)

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Dry opium prices in Afghanistan, January 2005 - March 2009 Trend towards

“unification” of Afghan opium market

Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Price Monitoring, March 2009 and previous years

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Gross income per hectare of opium poppy / wheat, 2003-2008

Average crop production costs in 2008Opium*: 45% of farmgate valueWheat: 20% of farmgate value Average net income: Opium: $ 2,585 per ha

Wheat: $ 1,300 per ha Ratio (opium : wheat) 2 : 1

Ratio 27 : 1

Ratio 9.5 : 1

Ratio 3 : 1

Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008

* Costs for seeds, ploughing, weeding, fertilizers, lancing & opium collection

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- 27 -UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment, January 2009.

Prices of opium and foods grains in Afghanistan in January 2008 and January 2009

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Dry opium and heroin prices in Afghanistan, January 2006 - March 2009 3,203

2,203

157

90

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

her

oin

pri

ce in

US

$ p

er k

g

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

opiu

m p

rice

in U

S$

per

kg

Afghanistan heroin (left-scale) Afghanistan opium (right scale)

January 2006 - March 2009:Heroin (Afg.) - 31% ($2,203) Opium: -43%

Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Price Monitoring, March 2009 and previous years

Herat: - 59% ($1,602)Kandahar: - 47% ($ 2,320)Takhar: - 29% ($ 2,097)Nangarhar: - 23% ($ 1,817)Badakshan: - 13% ($ 2,383)Balkh: + 15% ($ 3,000)Peshawar (Pak.) - 7% ($ 3,101)

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Export routes and value in 2008 - best estimates CENTRAL ASIA

15%; range 5%-22%121 tons of heroin (19%; 8%-25%)293 tons of opium (10%; 1%-18%)

(US$ 0.5 bn)

PAKISTAN 27%; range 18%-35%

258 tons morphine & heroin (41%; 28%-51%)202 tons opium (7%; 3%-11%)

(US$ 0.9 bn)

AFGHANISTAN’S EXPORTS

630 tons of morphine & heroin2,960 tons of opium

(US$ 3.4 bn)(Range: $2.7–$4.3 bn)

IRAN 57%; range 48%-65%

246 tons of morphine & heroin (39%; 32%-44%)2,464 tons of opium (83%; 71%-96%)

(US$ 2.0 bn)

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Trafficking from Afghanistan to Europe, 2008

Sources: UNODC, 2008 Afghanistan Opium Survey, UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data / DELTA, UNODC, Individual Drug Seizures database.

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0000122336689101213141616182028486274808493110118121127129130130135150169178189227312326431484501515519522548

1,0031,0091,0441,0741,165

1,5501,900

2,4472,938

4,75910,057

13,39713,863

25,58015,8992,87413,2285,0384,5932,9332,440

9,681

169

- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

IcelandMoldova, Rep.

ArmeniaFinlandCyprusLatvia

SlovakiaBelarus

MontenegroEstonia

LithuaniaNorway

LuxembourgBosnia &

AzerbaijanKenya

SwedenGeorgia

MaltaCanada

Czech Rep.South Africa

DenmarkP ortugalCroatia

HungaryScotlandSlovenia

SyriaAustriaNigeriaAlbania

Tanzania, U.R.Romania

United Arab EmiratesSwitzerland

Macedonia, FYRIreland

P olandYemen

SpainGreece

TurkmenistanKyrgyzstan

SerbiaUzbekistan

UkraineNetherlandsKazakhstan

BelgiumEngland and Wales*

IndiaFrance

GermanyBulgaria

TajikistanItaly

USARussian Federation

ChinaAfghanistan

TurkeyP akistan

Iran

kilograms

heroin morphine

* Data refer to 2006

Heroin/morphine seizures in 2007 along main trafficking routes to Europe

2,142.1

13,863

25,580

13,397

3,3303,485 7,677

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

'Balkan route' Northern (Silk)Route)

West and CentralEurope

kilo

gram

s

West and CentralEurope

East Europe (otherC.I.S.)

Central Asia

Other South-EastEurope

Turkey

Iran

Pakistan

Heroin and morphine seizures in 2007 in countries along the main Afghan Heroin and morphine seizures in 2007 in countries along the main Afghan opiate routes to Europe and to other main destination countriesopiate routes to Europe and to other main destination countries

79%79%

10%10% 11%11%

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Heroin and morphine seizures in West and Central Europe and along the extended ‘Balkan route’, 1995-2007

6,255 6,381 6,557 6,514 7,92711,841 10,644 9,629 8,481 9,288 8,012 7,595 7,364

407 384 479 774365

2,2651,792

931 1,644 1,8921,342 1,790 1,9894,396 5,579 4,173 5,406 4,303

8,8384,796 10,472

5,714

13,577

8,723 10,842 13,39713,121 11,23520,936

25,186

26,953

12,669 16,390

17,593

12,493

21,27225,580

10,7605,872

6,156

3,364

4,974

12,553

8,756

12,710

24,744

24,341

35,47713,863

28,794 13,498

34,141

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

kilo

gram

s

West & Central Europe Other South-East Europe excl. Turkey Turkey Iran Pakistan Trend

IRAN: Heroin seizures: 13.3 tons in 2007;19.8 tons in 2008 (Source: Drug Control Headquarters)

TURKEY: Heroin seizures: 9.1 tons in 2007; 10.3 tons in 2008(Source: Ministry of Interior)

Source: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data.

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Heroin and morphine seizures along the Northern Route (Silk Route), 1995-2007

Source: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data.

18 26

2,1261,014 1,360

3,237

5,144 4,707

6,825 6,309

3,870 3,651 3,330

10 63

30

458698

986

1,298844

3,256 3,909

4,681

2,449 2,938

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

kilo

gram

s

Central Asia Russian Federation Other East Europe (C.I.S.) Trend

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Additional information requirements:• More systematic and detailed information on transformation ratios of

opium to morphine and heroin (improved cooperation with Afghan authorities, DEA, and international coalition forces in Afghanistan);

• Better information on stocks and on trafficking flows (UNODC in cooperation with national authorities);

• Systematic price and purity monitoring in countries around Afghanistan (Pakistan, Iran, Central Asia) – planned to be done under the auspices of UNODC;

• Systematic price and purity monitoring along main trafficking routes to Europe (Turkey, Balkan countries, key EU consumer countries) – to be undertaken by EMCDDA in cooperation with UNODC?

• Improvements of Member States (including European Member States) reporting of individual drug seizures (as required under the international drug conventions) and sharing of strategic intelligence information ; (cooperation with WCO and Interpol as well as with Europol/EMCDDA);

• Updated information on extent of heroin use and on per capita consumption in consumer countries (current cooperation between UNODC and the European Centre for Social Welfare Policy and Research – to be extended to EMCDDA?)

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For more information:http://www.unodc.org

/

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION