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2 TË p 3 cña Dù th¶ o B¸ o c¸ o cuèi cïng bµ n chi tiÕ t vÒ dù b¸ o nhu cÇ u. 3 KÞ ch b¶ n ®∙ ®îc lË p víi sù t vÊ n cña Bé KH§T vµ ViÖ n CLPT. T× nh huèng cao gi¶ ®Þ nh tû lÖ t¨ ng trëng hµ ng n¨ m lµ 7.6%, 7.9% vµ
6.7% gi÷a 2000-2005, 2005-2010 vµ 2011-2020, trong khi t× nh huèng thÊ p gi¶ ® Þ nh 6.4%, 6.6% and 5.2% cho cïng c¸ c giai ®o¹ n 4 Lu© n chuyÓ n giao th«ng néi tØ nh kh«ng ®îc tÝ nh trong Dù b¸ o nhu cÇ u 5 Qu¸ tr× nh ph© n c«ng ®∙ ®îc m« t¶ chi tiÕ t trong TË p 3 cña b¸ o c¸ o. Mét lo¹ t c¸ c kho¸ ®µ o t¹ o ng¾ n ®∙ ®îc tiÕ n hµ nh cho mét sè
thµ nh viª n ®èi t¸ c cña ViÖ n CL vµ PT GTVT trong qu¸ tr× nh Nghiª n cøu.
Nghiª n cøu ChiÕ n lîc Ph¸ t triÓ n GTVT Quèc gia (VITRANSS) !"#$%"#$%&'($%)*+$
B¸ o c¸ o chÝ nh, TË p 3
2-3
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6 Tû lÖ néi hoµ n kinh tÕ (EIRR) ®îc íc tÝ nh cho hÇ u hÕ t c¸ c dù n CSHT nh» m lµ m râ tÇ m quan träng t¬ng ®èi cña tõng dù n. 7 Nh÷ng u tiª n cña ChÝ nh phñ ®èi víi c¸ c dù n GTVT nhá vµ khu vùc ®« thÞ , n«ng th«n cÇ n thiÕ t cho ph¸ t triÓ n ®Ê t níc nhng ngoµ i
ph¹ m vi VITRANSS còng ®∙ ®îc xem xÐ t trong viÖ c ph© n bæ nguån vèn t¬ng lai cã thÓ cã ®îc ®èi víi ngµ nh GTVT. 8 T¨ ng trëng GDP vµ c¸ c nguån cÊ p vèn tiÒ m n¨ ng ®∙ ®îc c© n nh¾ c.
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B¸ o c¸ o chÝ nh, TË p 3
2-4
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B¸ o c¸ o chÝ nh, TË p 3
2-5
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Nghiª n cøu ChiÕ n lîc GTVT Quèc gia (VITRANSS) B¸ o c¸ o cuèi cïng
B¸ o c¸ o chÝ nh, TË p 3
2-6
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Nghiª n cøu ChiÕ n lîc Ph¸ t triÓ n GTVT Quèc gia (VITRANSS) !"#$%"#$%&'($%)*+$
B¸ o c¸ o chÝ nh, TË p 3
3-1
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Gia
sóc
, thÞ
t
TÊn/ngµy
1999
2010
2020
$ $
601
1,097
2.006
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
No. of Passengers (000) Pass- Kms (mil.) 1999 2010 2020 1999 2010 2020
Sè lîng HKSè lîng HKSè lîng HKSè lîng HK
(000 HK/ngµ y(000 HK/ngµ y(000 HK/ngµ y(000 HK/ngµ y))))
HKHKHKHK----KmKmKmKm
(TriÖ u/ngµ y)(TriÖ u/ngµ y)(TriÖ u/ngµ y)(TriÖ u/ngµ y)
159
303
536
0
125
250
375
500
625
241
433
717
0
200
400
600
800
Freight(000 ton) Ton- Kms (mil.) 1999 2010 2020 1999 2010 2020
TÊ nTÊ nTÊ nTÊ n----kmkmkmkm
(TriÖ u/ngµ y)(TriÖ u/ngµ y)(TriÖ u/ngµ y)(TriÖ u/ngµ y)
Hµ ng ho¸Hµ ng ho¸Hµ ng ho¸Hµ ng ho¸
(000 tÊ n/ngµ y)(000 tÊ n/ngµ y)(000 tÊ n/ngµ y)(000 tÊ n/ngµ y)
0
100
200
300
400
77
219
388
Nghiª n cøu ChiÕ n lîc Ph¸ t triÓ n GTVT Quèc gia (VITRANSS) !"#$%"#$%&'($%)*+$
B¸ o c¸ o chÝ nh, TË p 3
3-5
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Nghiª n cøu ChiÕ n lîc Ph¸ t triÓ n GTVT Quèc gia (VITRANSS) !"#$%"#$%&'($%)*+$
B¸ o c¸ o chÝ nh, TË p 3
3-6
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Nghiª n cøu ChiÕ n lîc Ph¸ t triÓ n GTVT Quèc gia (VITRANSS) !"#$%"#$%&'($%)*+$
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3-7
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B¸ o c¸ o chÝ nh, TË p 3
3-8
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3 - 8
Nghiª n cøu ChiÕ n lîc Ph¸ t triÓ n GTVT Quèc gia (VITRANSS) !"#$%"#$%&'($%)*+$
B¸ o c¸ o chÝ nh, TË p 3
3-9
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2Qui m« cÊ p vèn c«ng céng theo GDP cho ngµ nh GTVT n¨ m 1996 nh sau: Brunei Darussalam (2,9%), Malaysia (2,4%), Myamar (2,3%), Philippines (2,0%) vµ Th¸ i Lan (7,3%): Ban Th kÝ ASEAN
Nghiª n cøu ChiÕ n lîc Ph¸ t triÓ n GTVT Quèc gia (VITRANSS) !"#$%"#$%&'($%)*+$
B¸ o c¸ o chÝ nh, TË p 3
3-10
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Nghiª n cøu ChiÕ n lîc Ph¸ t triÓ n GTVT Quèc gia (VITRANSS) !"#$%"#$%&'($%)*+$
B¸ o c¸ o chÝ nh, TË p 3
3-11
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B¸ o c¸ o chÝ nh, TË p 3
3-12
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B¸ o c¸ o chÝ nh, TË p 3
3-15
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B¸ o c¸ o chÝ nh, TË p 3
3-16
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