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Working Group 3 Contribution to the General Discussion on:

DROUGHTDROUGHTRiskRisk, Vulnerability and Impact , Vulnerability and Impact AssessmentAssessment

United Nations Inter Agency Task Force MeetingUnited Nations Inter Agency Task Force Meeting25 – 26 April 200225 – 26 April 2002

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Drought Drought Management Management ChallengeChallenge

- Why is it that despite the gradual onsite (‘creeping’) of droughtsdroughts, we are still unable to reduce the risk of droughtdrought?

- Isn’t it suppose to be easier to manage as TIME is on our side?

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Drought Drought RiskRisk

DroughtDrought: potential threat to humans and their welfare(WG 1)(WG 1)

+ 

 VulnerabilityVulnerability: exposure and susceptibility to losses(WG 3)(WG 3)

=  

Risk: probability of droughtdrought occurrence   

DisasterDisaster: realisation of droughtdrought risk 

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Social VulnerabilitySocial Vulnerability and DroughtDroughtObservationsObservations

Drought impacts are related to underlying conditions of:

** Population and Agricultural Resources(INDICATORS: population density, cropland, irrigated land, cereal

yields, food production)

** Income and Agricultural Investment (Econ. Dev.) (INDICATORS: GNP per capita, agricultural GDP, GDP growth, public

agricultural research)

** Food Security (INDICATORS: household food expenditure, refugees, adult female

literacy, infant mortality)

** Water Resources (Water Use) (INDICATORS: water resources, withdrawal, per capita withdrawal, withdrawal/resources)

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Suggestion of Four Aspects ofSuggestion of Four Aspects of Drought Drought VulnerabilityVulnerability

** Population and Agricultural ResourcesAgricultural resources are widely varying between

regions

** Income and Agricultural Investment (Econ. Dev.)Indicators of agricultural incomes highlight the

enormous disparity in per capita GNP (from over $20,000 to less than $500)

** Food Security- disparities in household status and food security

** Water Resources (Water Use)- Water resources vary widely between regions

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Drought Drought Regional IndicatorsRegional Indicators

- The crude indicators reinforce the conception of vulnerability as a relative construct. DDroughtrought does not affect all nations, economies and households to the same extent or by the same impact pathways.

- For the developed countries droughtdrought poses significant economic risks and costs for individuals, public enterprises, commercial organisations and governments, but could manage the impacts

- For the more poorer countries (droughtdrought life threatening) much of Africa is highly vulnerable on all counts;

- For most developing countries drought drought vulnerability constitutes a threat to livelihoods, the ability to maintain productive systems and healthy economies

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ConclusionsConclusions

- plethora of existing Drought vulnerability approaches/ theories (hydrobiological, natural hazards paradigm, vulnerability frameworks, Discourse theorists approach)

- vulnerability and societal definitions of drought are poorly monitored, especially in comparison to the effort spent on predicting and monitoring hydrobiological conditions

- vulnerability is dynamic. DroughtDrought is a relatively short-term event (spanning several years); vulnerability changes at a variety of time scales, from within a season to decade-long trends in development.

- more research should focus on relationships between resource, social, economic and political circumstances; on who is vulnerable and why

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ISDR IATF ChallengeChallenge

- A holistic interdisciplinary approach to drought management is required to take on the drought drought challenge

- It is recommended that a concerted action of the ISDR IATF Working Groups be initiated to identify and prioritise key needs in droughtdrought management in order to focus on realistically manageable activities.

- There is a need to improve the knowledge base on drought vulnerability. Data availability problem should be solved. Data information sources should be mapped and access to data facilitated.

ConclusionsConclusions

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THANK YOU!THANK YOU!

United Nations Inter Agency Task Force MeetingUnited Nations Inter Agency Task Force Meeting25 – 26 April 200225 – 26 April 2002