Post on 26-Mar-2015
WIODWORLD INPUT-OUTPUT DATABASE
construction
Marcel Timmer
Groningen Growth and Development Centre
University of Groningen
(WIOD Conference, Vienna , 26-28 May, 2010)
This project is funded by the European Commission, Research Directorate General as part of the 7th Framework Programme, Theme 8: Socio-Economic Sciences and Humanities.
Grant Agreement no: 225 281
This presentation
Why WIOD? GTAP, OECD, IDE, USITC, …..
Construction process in past year
Challenges ahead
Aim: to inform and invite comments
Possible applications
Production and consumption of Greenhouse gas emissions Nakano et al. (2009, OECD), Davis and Caldena (2010, PNAS) Quarter of produced CO2 emissions is not ‘consumed’ in same place OECD net import is about 15-20% of own production China, Russia and Middle East are large net exporters
Trade in value added Series of studies, mostly two regions (US and rest of world) Trade imbalance in value added terms much less than in gross terms Different angle on competitiveness and trade policy effects Link international trade and (wage) inequality within countries
Almost all studies so far are lacking time-series perspectives
WIOD characteristics
Supply and use tables as the basis Time-series benchmarked on National Accounts data Explicit attention for (trade in) services Constant price tables
Satellite accounts (socio-economic and environmental) Based on offical statistics with maximum of transparancy
in calculations
WIOD: Data and Coverage
SUTs and IOTs in current and constant prices Harmonized national supply and use tables (purchasers’ and
basic price) Bilateral trade flows of goods and services Inter-country SUTs Inter-country IO tables
Socio-economic accounts : labour and capital types Environmental accounts : energy, air emissions, natural resources
The tables in the WIOD-database will cover period from 1995 to 2006: 27 EU countries and 13 other major countries 35 industries and 59 products
List of Countries
• EU-27• plus13 non-EU:
- Canada - China
- United States - India
- Brazil - Japan
- Mexico - South Korea
- Turkey - Taiwan
- Russia - Indonesia
- Australia
Structure of national supply and use table
Total
C I G
Total supply by product
Gross value addedTotal input by
industry
Imports
Total use by
product
Domestic final use
Total output by industry
Intermediate useDomestic final
useSupply
product industry
Total
country A Exports
country A
ind
ust
ryp
rod
uct
Intermediate use
Domestic supply
Structure of national supply and use table
Total
C I G
Total
country A Exports
country A
ind
ust
ryp
rod
uct
Intermediate use
Domestic supply
Intermediate useDomestic final
useSupply
product industry
Imports
Total use by
product
Domestic final use
Total output by industry
Total supply by product
Total input by industry
Capital by type
Profit
Energy use (by type)Air emissions
Natural resources
Labour by type
Structure of inter-country SUT for country A
C I Gcountry
Bcountry
C
country B
country C Imports from C
Exports to B
Exports to C
pro
du
ct
country B
country C
Re-exports
Domestic final use of imports
from B
Domestic final use of imports
from C
country Ap
rod
uct
Intermediate use of domestic output
country A
ind
ust
ry
Domestic supply
pro
du
ct
Total use of
domestic output
Domestic final use of domestic
output
Total Use
Supply
product
Exports toIntermediate useDomestic final
use
industry
-
Total use of imports
from B
Total use of imports
from C
Intermediate use of imports from B
Intermediate use of imports from C
-
Re-exports
Gross output
Total supplyGross value added
Imports from B
Structure of inter-country input-output table for the world (industry-by-industry type)
Total output in AGross value added
Total output
in B
Total output
in C
Intermediate use by A of imports from B
Intermediate use by A of imports from C
Intermediate use of domestic output by B
Gross value addedTotal output in B
Gross value added
Total output
in A
Final use of domestic
output by A
Total output
ind
ust
ry
Final use by A of imports from
B
Final use by A of imports from
C
Final domestic use (C, I, G)
Intermediate use by B of imports from A
Final domestic use (C, I, G)
Country A
country B
country C
Intermediate use industry
ind
ust
ry Intermediate use of domestic output by
A
ind
ust
ry
country A
Country ACountry BIntermediate use
industry
Intermediate use by B of imports from C
Country CIntermediate use
industry
Intermediate use by C of imports from A
Intermediate use by C of imports from B
Intermediate use of domestic output by B
Total output in C
Final use by B of imports from
A
Final use of domestic
output by B
Final use by B of imports from
C
Country B
Final use of domestic
output by C
Country CFinal domestic
use (C, I, G)
Final use by C of imports from
A
Final use by C of imports from
B
Differences NAS versus SUT statistics: reasons
National Accounts data is revised over time Revisions of basic data Reclassification of activities Methodological changes Change in classifications
But this is not (always) followed by revisions in (public)
SUT data, in particular outside Europe
Differences NAS versus SUT statistics: value added in some industries, India
1998 2003 2006Food, Beverages and Tobacco -12.8% -27.3% -25.2%Leather, Leather and Footwear -16.1% 6.0% 26.1%Coke, Refined Petroleum etc. -18.2% 31.0% 19.3%Machinery, Nec -15.0% -4.5% 13.4%Electrical and Optical Equipment -53.2% -32.0% -33.9%Total -2.6% -1.0% -1.0%
Past year work done
SUTs time-series (RUG, IPTS, HTWG) Trade in goods and services (WIIW) Inter-country IO tables (RUG, WIIW) Socio-economic accounts (RUG): building upon EU
KLEMS project Environmental accounts (IPTS): building upon EXIOPOL
project
WIOT construction process Public
statistics National accounts Supply and use tablesInternational trade
statistics (time-series) (infrequent) (time-series)
Total Final demand by type Supply (Basic price) Imports and exportsTotal Export/Import Use (Purchasers' price) on bilateral basis
Value added by industry (Input-output table) - of goodsGross output by industry (Valuation matrix) - of services
(Import matrix)
HarmonisationEstimation
Supply (Basic price)Use (Basic price)Valuation matrix
Estimation
Supply (Basic price)Valuation matrix
Domestic use (Basic price)
Estimation
Time series World input-output tables
Bilateral import shares by use
Import use (Basic price) by delivering country
Time series for each country
Time series for each country
For each country
Methodologies
1. Time-series of SUTs at purchasers’ prices Extrapolation and benchmarking of SUTs to National Accounts
statistics: Total Final demand by type Total Export and total Import Value added and gross output by industry
Based on SUT-RAS method (Temurshoev and Timmer 2009)
2. From SUTs at purchasers’ prices to basic prices Construction of margins of wholesale, retail, motor, transport and
net taxes at product level Estimation of valuation matrices based on structure in margins
(e.g. no retail margins on intermediate uses) At later stage offical margin matrices, if available
Methodologies
3. From national to inter-country SUTs Breakdown of Use table into domestic and imported (by
delivering country) Relying on imports from international trade statistics Not simple proportional method, but distinction between
intermediate, consumer and capital goods. This was based on a new classification of HS6-digit products to end-use
In later stage use import tables from NSIs if available
4. From SUTs to inter-country input-output table Technology assumptions Rest of World: exports to RoW is calculated as residual
and can become negative
Methodologies
5. From current price to constant price tables National deflators
Based on industry gross output deflators, and row wise deflation of SUT
At later stage add in more information from national accounts (final demand deflators, intermediate input deflators, import/export deflators)
International deflators (PPPs): World Bank ICP expenditure PPPs adjusted and allocated to industries (for 2005)
Practical implementation
Harmonisation SUTs Industry and product classification FISIM Missing or confidential observations Ad-hoc adjustments for each country
Time series of exports and imports at product level Total Export and total Import from NatAcc (goods and
services seperately if possible) Distribution over products from columns in SUTs Movement between SUT years based on international
trade data trends (at product level) Time-series of changes in inventories Time-series of margins: trade, transportation and net tax
Socio-economic accounts
Data at industry-level that matches SUTs: Employment and wages by skill-level (low/medium/high),and
for OECD also age and gender distinction Investment by industry and type (8 assets, including ICT) Sources:
EU KLEMS database November 2009 release for OECD (www.euklems.org)
wide range of labour, household and capital-surveys for other countries in cooperation with local teams (World KLEMS project)
Concluding remarks
Main innovations in WIOD Timeseries data Methodological improvements (e.g. SUT-RAS; import tables) Based on official data with transparant flow of adjustments Integrated socio-economic and environmental accounts Database will be made public
Including basic data so user can make alternative choices parts of data public in 2011 full data in 2012
Challenges
During project period Constant price tables Trade in services Russia and China accounts Revisions triggered by user feedback
Long-term Upcoming revisions in System of National Accounts and
industrial classifications SEEA and environmental accounts Institutionalize this type of work
Additional material
Columns in Use table
Code NACE Description
1 AtB Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing
2 C Mining and Quarrying
3 15t16 Food, Beverages and Tobacco
4 17t18 Textiles and Textile Products
5 19 Leather, Leather and Footwear
6 20 Wood and Products of Wood and Cork
7 21t22 Pulp, Paper, Paper , Printing and Publishing
8 23 Coke, Refined Petroleum and Nuclear Fuel
9 24 Chemicals and Chemical Products
10 25 Rubber and Plastics
11 26 Other Non-Metallic Mineral
12 27t28 Basic Metals and Fabricated Metal
13 29 Machinery, Nec
14 30t33 Electrical and Optical Equipment
15 34t35 Transport Equipment
16 36t37 Manufacturing, Nec; Recycling
17 E Electricity, Gas and Water Supply
18 F Construction
19 50 Sale, Maintenance and Repair of Motor Vehicles Retail Sale of Fuel
20 51 Wholesale Trade and Commission Trade, Except of Motor Vehicles
21 52 Retail Trade, Except of Motor Vehicles ; Repair of Household Goods
22 H Hotels and Restaurants
23 60 Inland Transport
24 61 Water Transport
25 62 Air Transport
26 63 Other Supporting and Auxiliary Transport Activities; Activities of Travel Agencies
27 64 Post and Telecommunications
28 J Financial Intermediation
29 70 Real Estate Activities
30 71t74 Renting of M&Eq and Other Business Activities
31 L Public Admin and Defence; Compulsory Social Security
32 M Education
33 N Health and Social Work
34 O Other Community, Social and Personal Services
35 P Private Households with Employed Persons
36 Financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM)
37 Total
38 Final consumption expenditure by households
39 Final consumption exp. by non-profit organisations serving households
40 Final consumption expenditure by government
41 Final consumption expenditure
42 Gross fixed capital formation
43 Changes in inventories and valuables
44 Gross capital formation
45 Exports
46 Final uses at purchasers' prices
47 Total use at purchasers' prices
Columns in USE Table
Rows in Use table
(part 1)
Code CPA Description
1 1 Products of agriculture, hunting and related services
2 2 Products of forestry, logging and related services
3 5 Fish and other fishing products; services incidental of fishing
4 10 Coal and lignite; peat
5 11 Crude petroleum and natural gas; services incidental to oil and gas extraction excluding surveying
6 12 Uranium and thorium ores
7 13 Metal ores
8 14 Other mining and quarrying products
9 15 Food products and beverages
10 16 Tobacco products
11 17 Textiles
12 18 Wearing apparel; furs
13 19 Leather and leather products
14 20 Wood and products of wood and cork (except furniture); articles of straw and plaiting materials
15 21 Pulp, paper and paper products
16 22 Printed matter and recorded media
17 23 Coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuels
18 24 Chemicals, chemical products and man-made fibres
19 25 Rubber and plastic products
20 26 Other non-metallic mineral products
21 27 Basic metals
22 28 Fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment
23 29 Machinery and equipment n.e.c.
24 30 Office machinery and computers
25 31 Electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c.
26 32 Radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus
27 33 Medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks
28 34 Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers
29 35 Other transport equipment
30 36 Furniture; other manufactured goods n.e.c.
31 37 Secondary raw materials
32 40 Electrical energy, gas, steam and hot water
33 41 Collected and purified water, distribution services of water
34 45 Construction work
Rows in Use table
(part 2)
35 50 Trade, maintenance and repair services of motor vehicles and motorcycles; retail sale of automotive fuel
36 51 Wholesale trade and commission trade services, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles
37 52 Retail trade services, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair services of personal and household goods
38 55 Hotel and restaurant services
39 60 Land transport; transport via pipeline services
40 61 Water transport services
41 62 Air transport services
42 63 Supporting and auxiliary transport services; travel agency services
43 64 Post and telecommunication services
44 65 Financial intermediation services, except insurance and pension funding services
45 66 Insurance and pension funding services, except compulsory social security services
46 67 Services auxiliary to financial intermediation
47 70 Real estate services
48 71 Renting services of machinery and equipment without operator and of personal and household goods
49 72 Computer and related services
50 73 Research and development services
51 74 Other business services
52 75 Public administration and defence services; compulsory social security services
53 80 Education services
54 85 Health and social work services
55 90 Sewage and refuse disposal services, sanitation and similar services
56 91 Membership organisation services n.e.c.
57 92 Recreational, cultural and sporting services
58 93 Other services
59 95 Private households with employed persons
60 Total
61 Cif/ fob adjustments on exports
62 Direct purchases abroad by residents
63 Purchases on the domestic territory by non-residents
64 Total intermediate consumption/final use at purchasers' prices
65 Compensation of employees
66 Other net taxes on production
67 Operating surplus, gross
68 Value added at basic prices
69 Output at basic prices
WIOD project: Work Packages
WP1-3: Construction of harmonized supply and use tables, national input-output tables, price deflators, trade flows and intercountry input-output tables
WP4: Construction of environmental satellite accounts (energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, etc.)
WP5: Construction of socio-economic satellite accounts (skill levels, investment, accumulation of intangibles)
WP6: Methodological research WP7-9: Development of new models and
extension/adaptation of models with track record within EC
Who is in WIOD?
University of Groningen (The Netherlands) Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (Sevilla, Spain) Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (Vienna, Austria) Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (Mannheim, Germany) Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Vienna, Austria) Konstanz University of Applied Sciences (Germany) The Conference Board Europe (Brussels, Belgium) CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (The Hague, The
Netherlands) Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (Athens, Greece) Central Recherche SA (Paris, France)
* Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (Paris France)
Available WIOD data
Available as of June, 15 (!!!! PRELIMINARY DATA !!!!) Timeseries SUTs, current price (purchasers’ price) Energy use by type and CO2 emissions Other air emissions (EU only) Bilateral trade in goods (not mirrored) and services (BoP codes) Output and employment time-series from Nat Accounts
Available end of August Timeseries SUTs, current price (basic price) Timeseries SUTs, constant price Inter-country SUT and IO tables Other air emissions (all countries) Bilateral trade in goods and services (WIOD codes) Updates and corrections of June 15 database
Deliverables
Deliverable Content
Responsible institute Target Expected Realised
1.2 Nominal SUT RUG 6 146.1 Report IO-types IPTS/HTWG 6 82.2 Bilateral trade WIIW 9 148.1 Report lit review WIIW 9 141.3 Real SUT RUG 12 143.1 Inter-country SUT RUG 12 143.2 Inter-country IO (current) RUG 12 144.2 Environmental indicators IPTS 12 145.1 Update EU KLEMS RUG 12 9 95.2 KL for others RUG 12 146.2 Report IO-compilation IPTS/HTWG 12 147.1 Linking economic and environmental indicatorsZEW 12 13
Delivery date
Deliverables, coming years
Delivery dateDeliverab
le ContentResponsible institute Target
1.4 Real SUT (PPP) RUG 164.3 Indicators for CGE IPTS 168.2 Report factor content WIIW/RUG 169.1 Report suggestions CPB 165.4 Foreign affiliates WIIW 18
6.3a Report IO constant price IPTS/HTWG 186.3b Report IO projection IPTS/HTWG 186.3c Report sensitivity model choice RUG 187.2 Report structural change ZEW 187.4 Improving CGE calibration ZEW/WIFO 188.4 Report trade in intermediates WIIW 183.3 Inter-country IO (real) RUG 213.4 Regional IO RUG 215.3 Intangibles TCB 246.4 Report sensitivity price and aggregationRUG 247.3 Environmental policies ZEW/WIFO 247.5 Report techn change and environmentZEW/WIFO 248.5 Report outsourcing WIIW 249.2 Report GEM ICCS 249.3 Report Nemesis CRSA 249.4 Report World scan CPB 24
Delivery dateDeliverab
le ContentResponsible institute Target
7.6 Model prototype ZEW/WIFO 308.7 Report econometric model WIIW/ WIFO 301.5 All SUT final RUG 362.3 Final bilateral trade WIIW 363.5 Final IO RUG 364.4 Final data IPTS 364.5 Technical report IPTS 365.5 Final socio-economic RUG 368.3 Report factor content (final) WIIW/RUG 368.6 Report outsourcing (final) WIIW 368.8 Report econometric model WIIW/ WIFO 36
9.5+9.9 Model + report GEM ICCS 369.6+9.10 Model + report Nemesis CRSA 369.7+9.11 Model + report Worldscan CPB 369.8+9.12 Model + report PACE ZEW 36