Post on 09-May-2015
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© john droz, jr.
How Much AugmentingDoes Wind Energy Require?
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© john droz, jr.
This is a Simplified Electricity Demand graph(which must be exactly matched by the Supply graph).
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© john droz, jr.
This shows each source supplying uswith 20% of our total electricity needed.
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Wind
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© john droz, jr.
Wind, though, is unlike any of the others,and in reality is like this.
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© john droz, jr.
So something has to augment those variations,and typically it’s additional gas.
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Hydro
Gas
Wind
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© john droz, jr.
To properly balance wind, the extra gas supplymust approximately equal the wind supply.
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Wind
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This is a Simplified Electrical Supply graph(which must exactly match the Demand graph).
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© john droz, jr.
The Supply graph actually has four elements.Let’s briefly look at each one.
Base LoadLoad FollowingPeak LoadDemand Safety Margin
This is the “Base Load” Supply part.
© john droz, jr.
Base Load: what is needed 24/7 (about 50% of the total)[This is a predictable underlying demand that is quite consistent throughout the year.]
— Base Load Supply is typically Nuclear or Coal facilities. —
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Can Wind Energy Supply“Base Load” Power?
NO.
Base Load
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Load Following: normal usage daily changes[These are fairly predictable 24 hour cyclic changes, with higher demand before & after work.]
— Load Following Supply is typically Gas or Hydro facilities. —
Can Wind Energy Supply“Load Following” Power?
NO.
This is Base Load,with “Load Following” Supply added.
Base LoadLoad Following
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Peak Load: unusual surges[These may be due to a heat wave where a lot of air conditioners are used at 5 PM.]
— Peak Load Supply is typically Gas facilities. —
Can Wind Energy Supply“Peak Load” Power?
NO.
This is Base Load + Load Following,with “Peak Load” Supply added.
Base LoadLoad FollowingPeak Load
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© john droz, jr.
This is Base Load + Load Following + Peak Load, with 15% Demand Safety Margin added.
Base LoadLoad FollowingPeak Load
The supply sources that are providing the Demand Safety Margin(which can also be called backup supply). Their primary reason for existence
is to be able to instantaneously provide for any additional demand.
Demand Safety Margin
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This is Base Load + Load Following + Peak Load + Backup, with Wind Energy added.
Wind Energy
Base LoadLoad FollowingPeak LoadDemand Safety Margin
For lower amounts of wind penetration (<5%)it may appear like no additional wind backup is needed.
However, wind is actually stealing from the Demand Safety Margin.This puts sections of the Grid at greater risk for brownouts and blackouts.
The only proper solution is to match wind supply with an additional augmenting source.
1 - For any amount of wind penetration, there needs to be a quick responding source (usually gas) assigned to augment its variability.
2 - The amount of this augmenting source is typically 90+% of the wind’s faceplate value. The actual percentage can be calculated by subtracting the true wind facility capacity value from 100%.
3 - For low penetrations (<5%), in some cases a new augmenting source is not built, and wind variations are absorbed by the Demand Safety Margin. This is poor grid policy as it increases safety risks for all users. It may be done for economical reasons (not having the money to build the augmenting source), or for political reasons (so as not to show some of the extra grid costs necessitated by wind energy).
4 - In ALL cases the levelized cost of wind should be calculated with it being paired with a full time augmenting supply. This also applies to other comparisons with conventional sources, like calculating the amount of CO2 saved.
Conclusions:
For more information on wind energy, seeEnergyPresentation.Info
On JobsThe US has lost most of its jobs to other countries primarily due to economics:
low cost labor.
Our businesses have one major economic benefit left to counter more job loss: low cost electricity.
Why would we agree to an RPS and voluntarily give this up???
More On JobsThere is nothing — no program, no hobby, no vice, no crime — that does not “create jobs.” For example, tsunamis, computer viruses and shooting convenience store clerks all “create jobs.”
So since that claim applies to all it is an argument in favor of none.
Instead of providing evidence of the merits of an enterprise, a jobs claim isa de facto admission that one has a specious case.
Even More On JobsWe could eliminate all forms of welfare and food stamps, and offer the unemployed full-time minimum wage jobs pedaling stationary bicycles hooked up to electric generators.
This would solve our: 1) energy independence, 2) energy diversity, 3) fossil fuel reduction, 4) poverty, 5) obesity, and 6) budget problems all at once!
Peer Review1 - "Peer Review" is applicable in one primary situation: when a scientist is proposing a new hypothesis.
2 - "Peer Review" is simply the opinions of selected other qualified scientists about a proposed hypothesis.
3 - Even if all these selected other scientists agree with the hypothesis, that does not constitute scientific proof that the hypothesis is accurate.
Peer Review"The mistake, of course, is to think that peer review is any more than a crude means of discovering the acceptability — not the validity — of a new finding. Editors and scientists alike insist on the pivotal importance of peer review. We portray peer review to the public as a quasi-sacred process that helps to make science our most objective truth teller.
But we know that the system of peer review is biased, unjust, incomplete, unaccountable, easily fixed, often insulting, usually ignorant, occasionally foolish, and frequently wrong."
— Richard Horton, editor of the British medical journal The Lancet
Scientific Processis an assessment that is:
1) Comprehensive, 2) Independent, 3) Transparent, 4) Empirical
Real WorldAll Data Available
ObjectiveTechnical,Economic &
Environmental
Sound Scientific Solutionsis the Umbrella position that covers
ALL important concerns:
TECHNICAL(e.g. reliability,dispatchability,transmission,
other Gridlimitations)
ECONOMIC(e.g. taxpayer cost,
ratepayer costs,agricultural impact,
property values, net jobs, etc.)
ENVIRONMENTAL(e.g. CO2 savings,
noise, flicker,birds & bats,
other health effects,raw material extraction
and processing, etc.)