Post on 10-Jan-2016
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Climate Change Mitigation
in Developing CountriesOverview and Brazil, China,
and Turkey Case Studies
William Chandler
Battelle Memorial Institute
Side Event – COP 8October 29, 2002
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A Diverse Set of Countries
Brazil Most populous nation in South America Heavy reliance on hydropower, biomass World’s largest expanse of rainforest
China World’s most populous nation Heavy reliance on coal Growing economy while reducing energy
intensity
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A Diverse Set of Countries
India Population will soon surpass China’s Very low per-capita income Economy and energy demand growing quickly
Mexico Major oil exporter Member of OECD Integrating economy with North American
market
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A Diverse Set of Countries
South Africa Largest GHG emitter in Africa Post-Apartheid political and economic
reforms World’s fourth largest producer of coal
Turkey Transit route for Caspian Sea oil and gas Member of OECD Rapidly rising energy demand/GHG intensity
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A Diverse Set of Countries
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Case Studies
Energy/Emissions Profile
Mitigating Measures
Potential Mitigation Opportunities
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Why China Matters to Climate
• World’s largest population and second largest GHG emissions
• Average annual GDP growth of 9.2% since 1979
• Coal meets over 60% of primary energy demand; large reserves
• Incomplete economic reform• Influence on Non-Annex I members
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China
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China Profile
• GDP projected to grow by 5-7% annually through 2020
• Population growth down to 0.7% in 2002
• Expected structural shift from agriculture to services
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China Profile
• Nearly 400,000 premature deaths resulting from air pollution in China
• Up to 8 percent of GDP lost due to environmental degradation
• 40 percent of land area affected by acid deposition
• Sulfur and nitrogen oxides remain a problem
• Very rapid growth in transportation emissions expected
Source: World Bank (1998), PNNL (1998).
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China
Mitigating Measures: Slower population growth Economic/energy reforms
Closure of small, inefficient coal mines
Efficiency improvements Afforestation
Estimated Mitigation: 250 MtC/year
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Energy Price Profile in China
Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2001.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
Index (1979=100) Retail Price Index
Petroleum
Coal
Electric Power
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Has Chinese Coal Use Really Declined?
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Percent Change from Previous Year
1990 1992 1994 1996
GDP Coal Total Energy
1998 2000 2002
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China Energy-related GHG emissions projected
to grow 2-3X by 2030
Mitigation opportunities: Continued economic restructuring Efficiency technology Fuel switching from coal to gas Expanded use of renewables
Mitigation Potential: 800 MtC (30-50% of projected emissions) in 2030
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China’s Mitigation Opportunities
• Successful transition from “shortage” to demand-driven economy
• Market prices discipline consumer behavior, but investment decisions are not transparent
• “Policy” loans/unemployment• Transition in R&D activities• Enforcement of legislation
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China’s Emerging Gas Sector
• More domestic gas than once
thought
• Infrastructure expanding rapidly
• Incentives needed for end-users
• Imports remain important variable
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China
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China - Conclusions
• China has lowered emissions significantly– For economic and environmental reasons
• Economic reform, efficiency and natural gas policies key to future mitigation
• Desire for improved local environmental drives co-benefit activities
• Need for stronger partnerships– Business, environmental, national security
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Brazil
Energy/Emissions:
Two-thirds of GHG emissions from land use change, primarily deforestation
Nearly half of energy from hydropower, biomass
Industrialization, growth raising emissions, reliance on fossil fuels
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Brazil
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Brazil
Mitigating Measures:
Use of ethanol, sugar-cane bagasse Natural gas cogeneration Aggressive energy conservation Tax incentive for small cars
Estimated Mitigation: 10 MtC/year
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Brazil
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Brazil Energy-related GHG emissions
projected to grow 250% by 2020
Mitigation opportunities: Expanded use of ethanol, bagasse, natural
gas, wind power, and small-scale hydro Increased energy conservation
Mitigation Potential: 45 MtC (20% of projected emissions) in 2020
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Turkey
Energy/Emissions One of world’s fastest growing
energy markets Major pipeline projects to establish
Eurasian Energy Corridor GHG intensity higher than most
developed countries Industry growing rapidly, but
remains inefficient, under government control
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Turkey
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Turkey
Mitigation measures: Price reforms driven by European
integration Efficiency measures Five-Year Development Plan:
Privatize energy production, distribution Increase use of natural gas, renewables Increase energy efficiency
Estimated Mitigation: NA
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Turkey Energy-related GHG emissions
projected to grow nearly 4-fold by 2020 Mitigation opportunities:
Privatization of industry Elimination of energy subsidies More efficient power transmission Increased use of natural gas, biomass
Mitigation Potential: 10 MtC (9% of projected emissions) in 2010
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Turkey
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Conclusions
Efforts over past 30 years have reduced collective emissions of the six countries by 288 MtC/year
Without these efforts, their emissions would be 18% higher
For perspective, under the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries would have to reduce emissions by 392 MtC from projected levels in 2010
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Conclusions
Most mitigating efforts have common drivers:
Economic growth Energy security Local environmental protection
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Conclusions
Common barriers to future mitigation:
Lack of information Lack of capacity Market distortion Lack of technology and
investment
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Conclusions
Policies can advance climate protection and development priorities by:
Supporting continued market reforms Mobilizing investment Supporting capacity-building Promoting efforts to improve air quality,
land conservation
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For More Information
www.pewclimate.org