Post on 14-Dec-2015
Wicked Problems & Clumsy Solutions:
The Role of Leadership
Keith Grint
What work problem is proving the most difficult to solve?
Change
1. The Problem of change & a typology of problems:Tame, Wicked & Critical
2. Elegant Solutions to Tame & Critical Problems
3. Why Elegant Solutions don’t resolve Wicked Problems butClumsy Solutions might
Business Process Re-engineering
Continuous Improvement/Learning Organization
Empowerment
Workout
Visioning
Cycle Time/Speed
Benchmarking
One Minute Managing
Corporate Culture
Intrapreneuring
Just in Time/Kanban
Matrix
MBWA
Portfolio Management
Restructuring/Delayering
“Excellence”
Quality Circles/TQM
Wellness
Decentralisation
Value Chain
‘Theory Z’
Management by Objectives
Conglomeration
T-Group Training‘Theory Z’
Brainstorming
Theory X and Theory Y
Satisfiers/Dissatisfiers
Managerial Grid
Decision Trees
1950
1960
1970
1980
1995
1990
Self Managing Teams
Core Competencies
Horizontal Organizations
Zero Base Budgeting
Strategic Business Units
DiversificationExperience Curve
Ebbs, Flows and Residual Impact of Business Fads * 1950-1995
Infl
uen
ce I
nd
ex
Richard Pascale
Change as an annual event
The Problem of Change
The NHS: ¼ century of change (AKA Restructuring)1982: Abolition of Area Health Authorities1982-85: Introduction of general management1985: Creation of NHS Board at the Dept of Health1989-93: Establishment of NHS Trusts1989-95: Creation of GP Fundholding & Commissioning1989-95: Setting up NHS Management Executive (later NHS Executive)1990: Replacement of FPCs (Family Practitioner Clinic) by FHSAs 1991-97: Reconfiguration of Health Authorities1991: Restructuring of NHS Organisation Boards1994: Reorganization of RHAs (Regional Health Authorities)1994: Abolition of FHSAs & incorporation into Health Authorities1995: Reconfiguration of Acute Services & Trusts1996: Abolition of RHAs, incorporation into NHS Executive1997: Abolition of GP fundholding, replacement with PCGs (Primary Care Group)2000: Abolition of NHS Executive, incorporation into the Dept. of Health2001: Abolition of NHS Executive Regional Offices, move to Regional DHSCs
(Directorate of Health & Social Care) at Dept of Health 2001: Replacement of larger health authorities with SHAs (Strategic Health Authorities)2001: Replacement of PCGs with PCTs (Primary Care Trusts)2002: Creation of Foundation NHS Trusts2002: Creation of Health and Social Care Trusts2005: Merger of 300 PCTs into 100 larger PCTs2005: Merger of 28 SHAs into 10 larger SHAs2006: Reorganization of Dept. of Health to split NHS and DH responsibilities.......2010 White Paper: abolition of PCT’s & SHAs; decentralization of budgets to GPs & Consortia
Major inquiries and the main legislation affecting policing 1960-20081960 Establishment of the Royal Commission on the Police1964 Police Act – establishment of the Tri-Partite Structure for policing1967 Home Office circular encouraging unit beat Policing1968 Lord Denning ruling1976 Police Act1977 Fisher Report1980 Home Affairs Select Committee Report on Sus Laws1981 Royal Commission on Criminal Procedure, Byford Inquiry – The Yorkshire Ripper1983 Home Office circular 114/83 (Financial Management Initiative)1984 Police and Criminal Evidence Act1988 Home Office Circular 106/88 (new management strategies for Police)1989 Publication of the Operational Policing Review1989 Taylor Report on the Hillsborough Stadium Disaster1991 Royal Commission on Criminal Justice1993 Audit Commission publishes Helping with Enquiries1993 White Paper on Police Reform1993 Publication of the Sheehy Inquiry report1994 Police and Magistrates Court Act1994 Audit Commission publishes Cheques and Balances 1995 Core and Ancillary Tasks Review – Final Report1996 Final Report on the Cassels Inquiry, Audit Commission publishes Streetwise, Police Act1997 Police Act – Creates PITO and NCIS1998 Crime and Disorder Act1999 Stephen Lawrence Inquiry report1999 Patten Report – future of Policing in Northern Ireland2000 Regulation of Investigatory Powers Act2001 Criminal Justice and Police Act, Cantle Report, Clarke Report, 2001 Home Office White Paper – Policing a New Century, Private Security Industry Act2002 Police Reform Act-National Policing Plan, PCSO’s introduced IPCC established2003 Bichard Inquiry, HO Green Paper- Policing: Building Safer Communities together, Anti-Social Behaviour Act2004 National Policing Plan 2005-20082005 HMIC report on workplace modernization, HO report – Neighbourhood Policing 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act, Serious and Organized Crime and Police Act2006 Terrorism Act, Police and Justice Act (Establishes the NPIA)2008 Flanagan Report2008 Policing Green Paper
MOD changes to personnel 1964-2009
1964 MOD formed from Admiralty, War Office, Air Ministry, & Ministry of Defence itself.
Secretary of State for Defence: Nineteen since 1964
Chief of the Defence Staff: Twenty since 1964
Chief of the General Staff: Eighteen since 1964
Chief of the Naval Staff: Eighteen since 1964
Chief of the Air Staff: Fifteen since 1964
Ninety chiefs in 45 years (@ one every 6 months)
HMS QE decision via strategic defence review 1998In service @ 2018
Government’s Whitehall Restructuring (National Audit Office, 2010)
1980 – 2009: 25 new government depts created (Cf. 2 in USA); 13 of these no longer exist2005- 2009: 90 reorganizations of central gov & arms length’s bodies, cost: £780m - £1bnLittle attempt to assess VfM for any changes
Drowning in the waves of change
BOHICA
The Problem of Change
Top ten critical change issues
1. An accepted need to change 2. A viable vision/alternative state 3. Change agents in place
4. Sponsorship from above 5. Realistic scale & pace change
6. An integrated transition programme 7. A symbolic end to the status quo
8. A plan for likely resistance9. Constant advocacy
10. A locally owned benefits plan
The Problem of Change
The Problem with Change:
@ 75% of change programmes fail in their own terms
Basil Liddell Hart: 1944.
‘The only thing harder than getting a new idea into the military mind is getting the old one out.’
The Problem with Change
Do different kinds of problems require different kinds of change?
1. Critical Problems: Commander
2. Tame Problems: Management
3. Wicked Problems: Leadership
Problems, Problems, Problems
Critical Problems: Commander
1. Portrayed as self-evident crisis; often at tactical level2. General uncertainty – though not ostensibly by commander who provides ‘answer’3. No time for discussion or dissent4. Legitimizes coercion as necessary in the circumstances for public good5. Associated with Command6. Encouraged through reward
Commander’s Role is to take the required decisive action – that is to:provide the answer to the problem
White Elephants:
1. Albino Elephant: Deity - Omniscient & Omnipotent2. Expensive & Unnecessary & Foolhardy Expense
Plato’s Philosopher-Kings: Omnipotent and Omniscient Commanders
Problems, Problems, ProblemsTame Problems: Management –
Problems as PUZZLES – there is a solutionCan be complicated but there is a unilinear solution to them – these are problems that management can (& has previously) solved
The problem of heart surgery is a Tame problemIt’s complicated but there is a process for solving it & therefore it has a Managerial Solution/Answer
Launching a(nother) new product is a tame problem
Relocating is a tame problem
Management’s role is to engage the appropriate process to solve the TAME problem
Tame and Wicked Problems (Rittell and Webber, 1973).
Heifetz: Technical leadership
Management as a ScienceF W Taylor’s engineering:
the application of science to achieve the one best solution
Problem
Solution
35 Possible Learning Experiences in ‘Cosy Corner’ (six other stations with separate learning experiences to be noted) PSRN – hear and use number namesPSRN – recite numbersPSRN – count a wide variety of things in a range of real and play situationsPSRN – to make collections of things which interest them, & use them in their play PSRN – see and make use of written numeralsCLL – listen to and use oral language, including well-told storiesCLL – listen and respond to the sound and rhythm of words in rhymes, poems, stories and songsCLL – create their own rhymes and stories, retell familiar ones and share them with othersCLL – ask and answer questionsCLL –take part in short and more extended conversationsCLL – associate sounds with patterns in rhymes/ wordsCLL – experience and explore a print-rich environment inside the setting and in the localityCLL –choose a bookCLL – share fiction and non-fiction texts with adults and other childrenCLL –understand how books are organised and that picture, symbols and print carry meaningCLL – respond to shared texts and express opinionsCLL – use books to find interesting informationCLL – make marks with a range of toolsPSED – experience play and learning in a range of indoor and outdoor environments which stimulate wonder, imagination, excitement and the disposition to learnPSED – experience respect for their own individualityPSED – demonstrate respect for the differing needs and values of others by their behaviourPSED – develop self esteem and self worthPSED – develop confidence and a sense of securityPSED – form positive relationships with familiar adultsPSED – form positive relationships with other childrenPSED – create and experience co-operative playPSED – share and take turnsPSED – experience play and learning, independently and as part of a groupPSED – handle and use resources with care, and understand the need for safetyPSED – develop independence in selecting activities and resourcesPSED – experience play and learning which takes account of their cultures and beliefs and those of othersPSED – develop an understanding of fairness, justice, right and wrongKUW – have time and opportunity to wonderKUW – question and form their own hypotheses about why things happen and how things work, move, grow and changeCD – explore the colour, texture and form of natural and made things
Reception class (4-5 years) ‘possible learning experiences’ to be noted in (28) children’s files
Wicked Problems have no simple solution because:
Either novel or recalcitrantComplex rather than complicated (cannot be solved in isolation)Sit outside single hierarchy and across systems – ‘solution’ creates another problemThey often have no stopping rule – thus no definition of successSometimes the solution precedes the problem analysisMay be intransigent problems that we have to learn to live withSymptoms of deep divisions – contradictory certitudesHave no right or wrong solutions but better or worse developmentsUncertainty & Ambiguity inevitable – cannot be deleted through correct analysis –
Keat’s “Negative Capability”Heifetz: Adaptive Leadership
Problems for leadership not management; require political collaboration not scientific processes - role is to ask the appropriate question & to engage collaboration
Soren Kierkegaard (1813-55)
‘Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards.’ Walter Benjamin’s (1892-1940) Angel of History: Faces the past but is ‘blown backwards into the future’.
Hegel’s (1770-1831) Owl of Minerva – only spreads its wings at dusk
‘If men could learn from history, what lessons it might teach us! But passion and party blind our eyes, and the light which experience gives us is a lantern on the stern which shines only on the waves behind us’
18/12/1831 Specimens of the Table Talk of by Coleridge
Wicked Problems tend to be beyond your experience
Samuel Taylor Coleridge (1772-1834)
Hei
ght
in I
nche
s
ScissorsScissors
Western RollWestern Roll
Fosbury Fosbury FlopFlop
StraddleStraddle
1900'04 '08 '12
'20'24 '28 '32 '36 '48
'52'56 '60 '64
'68'72 '76 '80 '84 '88 '92
1996
ScissorsFosbury Flop
1900 1920 1952 1968 1996
Hei
gh
t in
inch
es
1900 1920 1952 1968 1996
The problem of NIS improvements: Tame - efficiencies & budget cuts
The problem of NHS improvements : Wicked – from NIS to NHS –
e.g., 811,000 people in hospital in 2008 in UK through alcohol; cost - £2.7bn. Professor Ian Gilmore, president of the Royal College of Physicians
Birmingham Total Place Final Report report (2010: 5)
96% of health spend on treating illness only 4% on keeping people well.
Peter Connelly (also known as "Baby P
But what happens when an issue like this occurs?
Hard Shell (Exogenous) V Soft Shell (Endogenous) organizationHard Shell – externally strong but brittle system designed
to prevent error via perfect processes/defencesSoft Shell – externally weak but flexible system:
built in resilience via capacity to learn & rectify error
25
HARD SHELL - SOFT SHELL
Reason’s Swiss Cheese (Tame) model of causal chain of ‘accidents’
Reason’s Swiss Cheese (Tame) model of causal chain of ‘accidents’
Or, is safety a consequence of individuals making the system safe by bending rules?
The Sweep it under the carpet school of management
You’ve made a mistake
Will it show? YES Can you hide it? YES Conceal it before somebody else finds out
NO
Bury it
NO
Can you blame someone else, special circumstances or a difficult client?
YES Get in first with your version of events
Could an admission damage your career prospects?
NONO
Sit tight and hope the problem goes away
Problem avoided
YES
The other side of the Blame Culture Coin: Prozac Leadership
Prozac Leadership (Collinson, 2011)Unremittingly positive approach:
1.Encourages leaders to believe their own propaganda2.Discourages people for raising problems, admitting
mistakes, focusing on failure3.The only people that believe the corporate messages
are the corporate leaders4.Corporate leaders constantly surprised when things
go wrong given how well everything seems to be going....
‘Over the ten years that I have had the privilege of addressing you as Chancellor, I have been able year by year to record how the City of London has risen by your efforts, ingenuity and creativity to become a new world leader. Now today over 40 per cent of the world's foreign equities are traded here…So I congratulate you…on these remarkable achievements, an era that history will record as the beginning of a new golden age for the City of London.’
(Gordon Brown, Chancellor of the Exchequer, 20th June 2007)
Prozac Military LeadershipNot just mind the internal gap but the external gap. They only live here: what would they know?
2004: International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) Commander, General Barno, ’without question 2004 will be a decisive year’
2005: General Abuzaid, ‘2005 will be a decisive year’2006: General Richards, ‘2006 will be the crunch year for the Taliban’2008: General Champoux, ‘2008 will be a decisive year’2009: General McChrystal
‘ the Taliban no longer have the initiative... We are knee deep in the decisive year’2010: David Miliband, ‘2010 will be a decisive year’2010: Pres. Obama, ‘
For the first time in years, we’ve put in place the strategy and the resources’2011: Guido Westerwelle (GRM FM), ‘2011 would be a decisive year’
JUST CULTURE:
You’ve made a mistake
Will it show? YES
Don’t need to hide itCould be partly your fault but it’slikely that other factors are also involvedYou have a responsibility to prevent it happening again
NO
Admit it
Personal Responsibility Taken.OrganizationContinues toImprove –everyone knows why….
Organizational learning occursInformation fed back to individual as well as the organization
Admit it
Report it through the appropriate channels
Investigated
The highway from one merchant town to another shall be cleared so that no cover for malefactors should be allowed for a width of two hundred feet on either side; landlords who do not effect this clearance will be answerable for robberies committed in consequence of their default, and in case of murder they will be in the king’s mercy.Given at Winchester, October 8, in the thirteenth year of the king's reign.
—Statute of Winchester of 1285, Chapter V, King Edward I
2003: FBU fire strike: reduced fires
USS Benfold 1997-1999Guided missile destroyer
The Problem: the worst performing ship in the US Pacific Fleet
3C. BC Emperor Liu Bang held banquet on consolidation of China Surrounded by nobles, military & political experts. Guest asked Chen Cen (military expert) why Liu Bang was Emperor. Chen Cen: ‘What determines the strength of a wheel?’ Guest: ‘The strength of the spokes’ Chen Cen: ‘2 sets of spokes of identical strength did not necessarily make wheels of identical strength. The strength was also affected by the spaces between the spokes, & determining the spaces was the true art of the wheelwright.’
Hybrid Leadership
Leaders as wheelwrights: Leadership as an art
Command Management Leadership
Space Tactical Operational Strategic
Time Short Term Medium Term Long Term
Problem Critical Tame Wicked
Differentiating ‘Authority’ (legitimate power)
Command, Management, &
Leadership
Command: just do it (it doesn’t matter what you think)
Management: déjà vu (I’ve seen this problem before;I know what process will solve it)
Leadership: vu jàdé (I’ve never seen this problem before;I need to get a collective view on what to do about this)
Differentiating Management, Leadership & Command
Coercive Calculative Normative
Command Management Leadership
Etzioni’s forms of compliance
Problems & Power
Crisis Tame Wicked
Increasing uncertainty about solution to problem
TAME
WICKED
CRITICAL
CACULATIVE/RATIONAL
NORMATIVE/EMOTIONALSoft power
COERCION/PHYSICALHard power
COMMAND:Provide Answer
MANAGEMENTOrganize Process
LEADERSHIP: Ask Questions
Increasing requirement for collaborative compliance/ resolution
WHAT KIND OF PROBLEM IS IT?
DO YOU KNOW HOW TO SOLVE THIS PROBLEM?
CRITICAL PROBLEM
ACT AS A COMMANDER
BE DECISIVEPROVIDE ANSWERS
NO
IS IT A CRISIS?
YES
YES NO
TAME PROBLEM
ACT AS A MANAGER
USE S.O.Ps.
DOES ANYONE KNOW TO SOLVE THIS?
YES NO
WICKED PROBLEM
ACT AS A LEADER
ASK QUESTIONS & USE CLUMSY SOLUTIONS
Addressing Wicked Problems:
• Why Elegant Solutions don’t resolve Wicked Problems
• Why Clumsy Solutions to Wicked Problems might work
Four primary ways of organizing - and understanding - social life (Weberian ideal types via Douglas)
GRID:Rules &Roles
GROUP ORIENTATION
High
HighLow
FATALISM
INDIVIDUALISM
HIERARCHY
EGALITARIANISM
Market
Military
Meeting
Argument & the limits of elegant logic
More freedom to pursue rational logic as the Individualists’ elegant solution to the Wicked Problem of making followers comply
Festinger’s Cognitive Dissonance
‘Dissonance: discord
Aesop’s Fable: The Fox and Grapes
Pragmatics of Change
More freedom to pursue rational logic as the Individualists’ elegant solution to the Wicked Problem of making followers comply
Festinger’s Cognitive Dissonance
The power of faith: the god Sananda cultMidnight 21 December 1954: global floodPress release from Marion KeechPhone call: ‘Hey, there’s a flood in my bathroom – wanna come over
& celebrate?’ = Sananda’s special assistant
Attitudes reoriented to fit behaviour/’reality’Public statements at variance with private beliefs generate change in
private beliefs
Humans are rationalizing rather than rational animals
Festinger’s Cognitive Dissonance
The power of money: spools, pegs
$1 or $20
The former UK Independence Party (UKIP) leader Nigel Farage said he was "lucky to be alive" after his plane crashed in Northamptonshire.
10/5/2010
Festinger’s Cognitive Dissonance
Humans are Rationalizing creatures not Rational creatures
Turandot (Puccini)
Designer : Paul Steinberg
£35 -£150
Barry Staw (1975) ‘Attribution of causes of performance’Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance 13: 414-32
Two random groups: A & BTask: Estimate co. future sales & earningsRandomly Inform group A - very accurate; group B - very poor
Group A’s self assessment – success through:good cohesion, good communication, open to change, well motivated
Group B’s self assessment – failure through:low cohesion, poor communication, change resistant, low motivation
Group A Group B
But elegant solutions don’t solve Wicked problems
GRID:Rules &Roles
High
HighLow
FATALISMThere’s nothing we can do
INDIVIDUALISMMore freedom
to use rational choice
HIERARCHYMore power, rules &
enforcing rules
EGALITARIANISMGreater solidarity
Logic, Rationality
GROUP ORIENTATION
Process-Based LeadershipRule-following as the solution to the perennial problem of leaders: how to stop followers “using their initiative”
But elegant solutions don’t solve Wicked problems
GRID:Rules &Roles
GROUP ORIENTATION
High
HighLow
FATALISMThere’s nothing we can do
INDIVIDUALISMMore freedom
to use rational choice
HIERARCHYMore power, rules &
enforcing rules
EGALITARIANISM
Greater solidarityLogic, Rationality
Latane and Darley: The Bystander Problem (1968)
Room 1 has an individual staging an epileptic fitAdjoining room has:1 person = helps 85% of the time5 people + = help only 31% of the time
Smoke emerging from room reported75% of the time by lone passers by38% of the time by groups passing byGroups diffuse responsibility
Why the elegance of egalitarians’ solidarity doesn’t solve Wicked Problems:Group think & Peer Pressure as regressive
“If I look at the mass I will never act":Psychic numbing and genocide
Paul Slovic1
Decision Research and University of Oregon Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 2, no. 2, April 2007, pp. 79-95.
Some problems appear so large people give up:Go for small wins
Karl Weick: ‘Small Wins’
Do we always need to discuss and agree everything?
Average manager spends about 17 hours a week in meetings & about 6 hours in planning
Over 1/3 of the average manager’s week is spent in meetings
Some 25 million meetings occur in corporate America daily. Roughly half that time is wasted
http://www.tsuccess.dircon.co.uk/timemanagementtips.htm
http://www.enewsbuilder.net/theayersgroup/e_article000450602.cfm?x=b11,0,w
Ignatius of Loyola1491-1556
General Congregation of 20,000 Jesuits meet to elect a new Superior General or agree a change of policy.
Formed 1534, how many meetings of the General Congregation since then?
But elegant solutions don’t solve Wicked problems
GRID:Rules &Roles
GROUP ORIENTATION
High
HighLow
FATALISMThere’s nothing we can do
INDIVIDUALISMMore freedom
to use rational choice
HIERARCHYMore power, rules &
enforcing rules
EGALITARIANISM
Greater solidarityLogic, Rationality
So how do you address wicked problems?
• First, recognize that Elegant Solutions probably won’t work
• Second, consider the pragmatic utility of Clumsy Solutions
Hierarchists/CommandIndividualist/Management
Egalitarians/Leadership
But Elegant solutions don’t necessarily provide solutions for Wicked Problems: Scissors, Paper, Stone
Egalitarians limited by endless search for consensus as solution to internal conflictparalysis of decision-making & cult-like expulsions common – need:
• Hierarchists to get decisions & • Individualists to protect individuals
Hierarchists have numerous ways of resolving internal conflict but:• without distrust generated by egalitarians likely to degenerate into corruption &• without creativity of individualists they
stagnate *
Individualists seek to avoid/ignore group conflict but• markets rely upon egalitarians & hierarchies to develop system to protect individuals & promote exchange
Clumsy Solution Space
HierarchistsIndividualists
Egalitarians
Clumsy Solutions for Wicked Problems:Creating a Clumsy Solution Space
From elegant to clumsy; from straight line to crooked; from architect to bricoleur‘You shall love your crooked neighbour with your crooked heart’
(W H Auden: As I walked out one morning)‘Out of the crooked timber of humanity no straight thing was ever made’ (Kant)
Elegant (single mode) Solutions to Global Warming
GRID:Rules &Roles
GROUP ORIENTATION
High
HighLow
FATALISTS
There’s nothing that can be donePeople are selfish
AKA: we’re all doomed
INDIVIDUALISTS
Need to facilitate individualism& encourage creative competition
Technological innovation & market forces
will resolve the problem
HIERARCHISTS
The rules are inadequately enforced: get a disciplinarian
in charge to sort it outa Kyoto style
agreement that works
EGALITARIANS
Need to rethink our approachTo consumption and shift to
decentralized & self-sustaining communities
UN FrameworkConvention on Climate Change
Clumsy Solution Space
HierarchistsStronger global regulation ofcarbon emissions AND ….
Individualists
Technical innovations
to address global warming at every level AND …
EgalitariansChange in consumption patterns & more sustainability AND ….
Clumsy Solution for Wicked Problem of global warming
Elegant (single mode) Solutions to Malaria:Kills 800,000 every year; mainly <5 years.1955-69 Global Eradication Prog (Rockefeller Foundation support) helpful(urbanization, reduced rural labour, DDT, quinnine, but post 1970....
GRID:Rules &Roles
GROUP ORIENTATION
High
HighLow
FATALISTS
There’s nothing that can be doneAKA:
we’re all doomed
INDIVIDUALISTSNeed to encourage competition:
innovation & market forces will work – dumping nets just
undermines local marketGlaxo-SmithKline’s vaccine will work
HIERARCHISTS
Need a UN backed Nation StateIntegrated top down expert-led Plan: (1937 League of Nations)
EGALITARIANS
WHO 1973 ‘Health for all by 2000’Requires radical transformation of
entire world political, economicsystem to remove inequalities
Identity Protective CognitionPeople fit their views into those of others with whom their share identity We (often subconsciously) conform to group beliefs about facts & risks
Cultural theory - a better explanation of this than class, age, education, personality typeMore likely to believe experts that fit with our own cultural disposition than those who don’t.
Thus we believe the scientific consensus actually supports our predisposition
GRID:Rules &Roles
GROUP ORIENTATION
High
HighLow
FATALISTS
There’s nothing that can be doneAKA:
we’re all doomed
INDIVIDUALISTSNeed to encourage competition:
innovation & market forces will work – dumping nets just
undermines local marketlaxo-SmithKline’s vaccine will work
HIERARCHISTS
Need a UN backed Nation StateIntegrated top down expert-led Plan: (1937 League of Nations)
EGALITARIANS
Cultural Cognition as a Conception of the Cultural Theory of Risk Dan M. Kahan in Roeser, S. (ed.) Handbook of Risk Theory (Springer Publishing).
HierarchistFatalist
Individualist Egalitarian
Wicked Problems require Bricoleurs not Rational Calculating Machines
Those who can prosper in a clumsy pragmatic way, not those restricted to elegant single logics:
Those who ‘do it themselves’, who experiment, & learn from mistakes – change comes from people doing real work, not telling others how to do it differently
Those who recognize that local engagement is critical Bricoleurs make progress by stitching together whatever is at hand, whatever needs stitching together to ensure practical success.
Not clean world of analytic models & rational plans for progress to perfection from the top down – it doesn’t matter where you start from, start from where the energy for change lies and follow the new connections
Bricoleurs & the possibility of rescue: First-Responders to the flooding in New OrleansKroll-Smith et al, (2007) Journal of Public Management & Social Policy (Fall)
The CPR (Cardiopulmonary resuscitation) paradox: 5 trainee + 1 experienced paramedics filmed using CPRFilm shown to three groups: who is the experienced one?1.Experienced paramedics get it right 90%2.Students right 50%3.Instructors right 30%
Why?
St Claude Bridge
People sheltered on the bridge but the water rose rapidlyPolice officer went to National Guard base near the bridge and
asked a colonel for the buses to rescue the peopleColonel refused but said he would ask his general –
but wasn’t sure where he was ... No buses left the depot
One ambulance driver carried 42 people in one go
Police officer commandeered (stole) a refrigerator truck siphoned (stole) diesel from abandoned vehicles to keep it running to feed 100 people for days
So how do you address wicked problems?
Adopt the role of the bricoleur: stitch together a clumsy systems’ solution comprised of elements of all three ‘elegant’ modes to reframe the problem
Clumsy Solution Space
Hierarchists
Relationships not Structures
Constructive Dissent not Destructive Consent
Extraordinarization of the Mundane
Individualists
Questions not Answers
Reflection not Reaction
Empathy not Egotism
Egalitarians
Collective IQ not Individual Genius
Positive Deviance not Negative Acquiescence
Community of Fate not Fatalist Community
Individualists
Questions not Answers
Reflection not Reaction
Empathy not Egotism
Pre Katrina briefing for George Bush
Max Mayfield, National Hurricane Centre: “I don’t think anyone can tell you with any confidence right now whether the levees will be topped or not but it’s obviously a very very grave
concern”
Michael Brown, Director FEMA, “My gut tells me this is going to be a bad one and a big one … I don’t know whether the dome roof can withstand a cat 5 hurricane”
George Bush asks no questions
George Bush on national TV on the eve of the hurricaneGeorge Bush: “I want to assure the folks at home that we are fully prepared”
Questions not Answers
Buncefield fire as a Wicked problem
Negative Capability: the creation of space & time to reflect
Positive Capability: the ability to make aninstant decision
Reflection not Reaction
How to acquire empathy: become an anthropologist
(Drew Jones: The Innovation Acid Test, 2008, Triarchy Press)
Walk a mile in my shoes:
Go back to the floor
or reverse this -
Become a mystery customer
Not what people say in focus groups or in surveys – these are artificial environments –
but what they do under normal circumstances
Allan LeightonRoyal Mail
Empathy not Egotism
Bruce Parry
Heifetz:The balcony &The dance-floor
Questions & ReflectionKennedy & the Cuban Missile ‘Crisis’
MUTE
Egalitarians
Collective IQ not Individual Genius
Positive Deviance not Negative Acquiescence
Community of Fate not Fatalist Community
Whole Systems or Hierarchies?
Wholes or Horizontal Slices or Vertical Slices?
IKEA & Ektorp sofa: 48 hours to change the system2003, Future Search (Weisbord and Janoff)52 stakeholders & 18 hours to redesign the product
& system
Collective intelligence not individual genius –
If you don’t have the answer find those that do:
Positive Deviance
Via Maria Zeitlin: Why, in the midst of malnourishment are some children well nourished?
-Because they adopt deviant practices
-Jerry & Monique Sternin field test in Vietnam for Save the Children 1990
-TBU: Conventional wisdom on malnutrition is TBU: true but useless
-poor sanitation, -food-distribution, -poverty, -poor water:
-all these take time
Positive Deviance not Negative Acquiescence
Sternin, & Pascale, (2005) “Your Company’s Secret Change Agents.” Harvard Business Review. May
Positive Deviance: Malnourishment in Vietnam (Sternin)
1. Don’t assume you have the answer:
2. Identify conventional wisdom: what do the majority do?:Avoid food considered as low class/common Don’t feed children with diarrhoeaLet children feed themselves or twice a day max.
4. Identify & analyze positive deviants: Use low class/common food – it’s nutritious: field shrimps, small crabs & sweet potatoesFeed children with diarrhoea – it’s critical to recoveryActively feed children many times during the day
- self-fed children drop food on floor so it’s contaminated- children’s stomachs can only take a finite amount of food at any
one time
Positive Deviance not Negative Acquiescence
Anti Social Behaviour: Social Capital & Leadership
Panorama: Taking Back the Streets BBC One 8.30pm on Monday 3 March 2008
Anne Glover Braunstone in Leicester
"It never ceases to amaze me how a minority can control an area where a majority of people live... all because of the fear factor. If you stick together on an issue they can't intimidate you."
Community of Fate not a Fatalist Community
Hierarchists
Relationships not Structures
Constructive Dissent not Destructive Consent
Extraordinarization of the Mundane
The NHS: ¼ century of change (AKA Restructuring)
1982: Abolition of Area Health Authorities1982-85: Introduction of general management1985: Creation of NHS Board at the Dept of Health1989-93: Establishment of NHS Trusts1989-95: Creation of GP Fundholding & Commissioning1989-95: Setting up NHS Management Executive (later NHS Executive)1990: Replacement of FPCs (Family Practitioner Clinic) by FHSAs Family Health Service Authority1991-97: Reconfiguration of Health Authorities1991: Restructuring of NHS Organisation Boards1994: Reorganization of RHAs (Regional Health Authorities)1994: Abolition of FHSAs & incorporation into Health Authorities1995: Reconfiguration of Acute Services & Trusts1996: Abolition of RHAs, incorporation into NHS Executive1997: Abolition of GP fundholding, replacement with PCGs (Primary Care Group)2000: Abolition of NHS Executive, incorporation into the Dept. of Health2001: Abolition of NHS Executive Regional Offices, move to Regional DHSCs
(Directorate of Health & Social Care) at Dept of Health 2001: Replacement of larger health authorities with SHAs (Strategic Health Authorities)2001: Replacement of PCGs with PCTs (Primary Care Trusts)2002: Creation of Foundation NHS Trusts2002: Creation of Health and Social Care Trusts2005: Merger of 300 PCTs into 100 larger PCTs2005: Merger of 28 SHAs into 10 larger SHAs2006: Reorganization of Dept. of Health to split NHS and DH responsibilities
StructureProcess
Relationships & Identity:Not - what do you do? (e.g., how many operations have you undertaken)But – what are you? (e.g., what is your purpose?)
Relationships not Structures
Monday, 20 August 2007, 10:35 GMT 11:35
Tackling violence 'I won't sit back again if I see trouble,' says Jeremy Vine
Leadership, Constructive Dissent & Permission Giving
General Marshall, Chief of Staff US Army from 1/9/1939 –1945Increases army size from 200,000 to 8,500,000Churchill called him, “the true organizer of victory”1947 outlines what became The Marshall Plan for economic
reconstruction Western Europe1953 Awarded Nobel Peace Prize
Back to first week as Chief of Staff (5/9/1939) gathers his subordinates around him and expresses his disappointmentsin them:
2007, choirmaster Gareth Malone Took a teaching position at Lancaster School, Leicestershire - largest all-boys comprehensives in the country noted for sports – not singing
1.Few boys interested2.Response: “I tried about 25 different techniques to get them interested.”
The Choir: Boys Don't Sing
Air Florida 90 (‘Palm 90’) (737), January 13 1982, due out14.15 to Fort Lauderdale. Captain Larry Wheaton; 1st Officer Roger PettitTake-off check list commences Pettit: Air conditioning & pressurization? Wheaton: Set Pettit: Engine anti-ice? Wheaton: Off15.59: cleared for take off & throttles open Pettit: ‘It’s real cold, real cold’ Wheaton: It’s spooled. Real cold, real cold. Pettit: God, look at that thing. That doesn’t seem right, does it? Uh, that’s not right.16.00 Wheaton: Yes, there’s 80 (knots) Pettit: Naw, I don’t think that’s right. Ah, maybe it is. Wheaton: 120 Pettit: I don’t know Wheaton: V1. (Lift off, but nose rises too quickly) Easy. V216.01 Crashes into bridge over Potomac: 6 survivors
Permission Giving: from Destructive Consent to Constructive Dissent
Cf. RAF Crew Resource Management SystemArmy/Navy: ‘Stop Fire’Navy: ‘Still’Heifetz: Protect the voices from belowTarnow ‘self-destructive obedience’ in Blass (ed.) Obedience to Authority25% of all crashes caused by destructive consent (obedience)
Wayne Jowett
Thursday, 19 April, 2001, 16:06 GMT 17:06 UK
Catalogue of blunders that led to death
Dr Mulhem – Specialist Registrar; Dr Morton – Senior House OfficerDr Morton asked Dr Mulham whether the Vincristine should be given spinally
and said Dr Mulhem had told him yes. Dr Morton said “He was surprised by this, but had not felt he could challenge a
superior. “
Destructive Consent and Irresponsible Followers
Sloan’s Dilemma
‘Gentlemen, I take it we are all in complete agreement on the decision here?’
Consensus of nodding heads.‘Then I propose we postpone further discussion of this matter
until our next meeting to give ourselves time to develop disagreement and perhaps gain some understanding of what the decision is all about.’
Permission Giving: from Destructive Consent to Constructive Dissent
Sloan’s Dilemma & Constructive DissentWhat is to be done?
Order of decision
Persian militarydecision-making
Permission Giving: from Destructive Consent to Constructive Dissent
Time
Value
Value of feedback
Career path
The Extraordinarization of the Mundane
Alvesson & Svenningson
‘little touch of Harry in the night’
Critical Learning Points:
1. What kind of problem are you facing?1. Tame – Manage the SOPs2. Critical – Command the answer3. Wicked – Lead the collaborative effort
2. Organizations generate default cultures:1. Hierarchists assume rules & power are critical2. Egalitarians assume greater solidarity is critical3. Individualists assume greater freedom is critical4. Fatalists have given up
3. Elegant (single mode) solutions are OK for Tame & Critical Problems but not Wicked Problems
4. Wicked Problems require Clumsy Solutions that pragmaticallyuse all 3 elegant modes – they require bricoleurs: