Washington DC / Paris

A Personal Case Study

Peter N. Jarich, Service Director

November 2009

Why I Still Don’t Have a Femtocell

Agenda

Who I Am

Why I Don’t Have a Femtocell...Yet nascent offers no need for coverage no need for capacity no need for cheap voice nascent enterprise development never coming to my office over-sold expectations x-femto confusion operators don’t need me

Takeaways & Friends how the industry can get one into my hands building on today’s successes

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Who Am I: The Jarich Household

3

Who Am I: The Jarich Household

4

Who Am I: Why I’m A Femto Candidate

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Why No Femto: Nascent Offers

2.1 Offers

No 3G For Me

Nothing in My Set-top

Wouldn’t Even Know They Existed if I Wasn’t In The Industry

Understandable Explorations

6

Why No Femto: Value of Coverage?

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Source: Verizon Wireless

Why No Femto: Value of Coverage?

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Why No Femto: Value of Capacity?

how much capacity do I need?

function of coverage

help is on the way...9

Why No Femto: Value of Capacity?

how much capacity do I need?

function of coverage

help is on the way...10

@pnjarich

Why No Femto: Value of Cheap Voice?

How much voice do I use?

How much voice do I pay for? mobile-to-mobile calling circle nights & weekends

Big Buckets and All You Can Eat

11Source: Boost Mobile

Why No Femto: Value of Cheap Voice?

How much voice do I use?

How much voice do I pay for? mobile-to-mobile calling circle nights & weekends

Big Buckets and All You Can Eat

12

Source: metroPCS

Why No Femto: Value of Cheap Voice?

How much voice do I use?

How much voice do I pay for? mobile-to-mobile calling circle nights & weekends

Big Buckets and All You Can Eat

13Source: T-Mobile

Why No Femto: Enterprise on Hold

No Shortage of Solutions

No Shortage of Architectures

No Shortage of Will? managed mobile success? what size enterprise? all a metro-femto ploy?

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Source: AirWalk Communications

Source: Airvana

Source: SpiderCloud

Why No Femto: Unrealistic Expectations

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growth just a few years away– driven by tech– driven by operator demands– driven by more and more users

per femto standard five-year hockey stick

none

lots

Why No Femto: Unrealistic Expectations

Market Timing “unit shipments

expected to grow 10-fold from 2007 to 2008…”

“2008 will be THE year for femto launches…”

“100+ million users by 2011…”

“the enterprise will pick up fastest, given the uncertain timing and cost-constraints of the residential space…”

Ecosystem consumer electronics

trajectory silicon trajectory application trajectory network standards

trajectory …all of which was

downplayed

16

Why No Femto: X-Femto Confusion

Nobody Will Deny the 3G cell-edge problem the importance of spatial

efficiency operator interest in metro-femto

deployment models the importance of the Femto

Forum’s “Class” designations

Timing is Another Issue it’s not a place to start LTE preoccupation how ready is the tech?

17

Remember This?

Takeaways: Segmenting Today’s Holdups

Supply limited offers form factor diversity tech worries tech options market investigations sales investigations unreasonable

expectations bigger priorities

Demand cheap voice is not

enough better coverage is not

enough better data capacity is

not enough marketing isn’t there… …and it’s not just about

the newness of the market

18

Takeaways: Marketing, Really?

19

“let’s talk about coverage…”

“…and our big plans for tomorrow.”

Source: www.vzw.com

Takeaways: Today’s Strategy

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coverage retention do-it-yourself niche…at best

Takeaways: The Way Forward

Current Model Is Not Sustainable niche marketing may deliver ROI to operators it will not drive market scale

Drive Supply operators need to see this as strategic / not tactical operators need to know the tech issues are solved (almost) operators need to know that WiFi isn’t coming to feature phones build on successes – technical and business

Drive Demand need tariff innovation need aspirations & applications

Do Not Underestimate The Window WiFi is making headway LTE: friend vs. foe apps are coming, with or without femto

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