Where our Food Crops Come from: A new estimation of countries’ interdependence

in plant genetic resources

Colin K. Khoury, Harold A. Achicanoy, Anne D. Bjorkman, Carlos Navarro-Racines, Luigi Guarino, Ximena Flores-Palacios, Johannes M.M. Engels, John H. Wiersema,

Hannes Dempewolf, Julian Ramírez-Villegas, Nora P. Castañeda-Álvarez, Cary Fowler, Andy Jarvis, Loren H. Rieseberg, and Paul C. Struik

ITPGRFA GB6 Side Event7 October 2015

FAO, Rome, Italy

Estimating Interdependence – Flores-Palacios 1998

“Primary regions of diversity” of crops

International Potato Center (CIP)

High diversity in primary regions

David Cavagnaro

Importance of crops outside their primary regions

Estimating interdependence in plant genetic resources

• Flores-Palacios (1998) useful in early Plant Treaty negotiations, but limited

• New study prepared for Ad-Hoc Working Group to Enhance the Functioning of the MLS

• What’s new: – Current years– Calories, protein, fat, and total food weight in national

food supplies, analyzing 177 countries covering 98.5% of the world’s population

– Production quantity, harvested area, and production value in national production systems

– Change in the past 50 years in countries’ interdependence

– Analyses of the relationship between interdependence, diversity, and GDP

– Improved methods

The “primary regions of diversity” of crops

Calories

Calories

Calories

Calories

Calories

Calories

Calories

Calories

Calories

Calories

Calories

Global web of interdependence in

primary regions of diversity of crops in food supplies

Protein

Global web of interdependence in

primary regions of diversity of crops in food supplies

Fat

Global web of interdependence in

primary regions of diversity of crops in food supplies

Food weight

Global web of interdependence in

primary regions of diversity of crops in food supplies

Production quantity

Production quantity

Production quantity

Production quantity

Production quantity

Production quantity

Global web of interdependence in

primary regions of diversity of crops in production

systems

Harvestedarea

Global web of interdependence in

primary regions of diversity of crops in production

systems

Production value

Global web of interdependence in

primary regions of diversity of crops in production

systems

Degree of dependence per country on “foreign” crops

Calories

Degree of dependence per country on “foreign” crops

Production quantity

Degree of dependence per country on “foreign” crops

• 65.8% dependence for calories, 66.6% for protein, 73.7% for fat, and 68.7% for food weight

• 71.0% for production quantity, 64.0% for harvested area, and 72.9% for production value

• 68.7% across food supply variables, 69.3% across production variables, and 69.0% across all variables for all countries

• Acknowledging variation in regions and metrics, extensive interdependence worldwide, in all regions and on all continents, including in countries located in areas of high indigenous crop diversity

Degree of dependence per country on “foreign” crops

Dependence on “foreign” crops has increased over time

Production systemsFood supplies

Change in dependence on “foreign” crops over time

• From 1961 to 2009/2011, averaged across countries,– Calories increased from 62.7% 67.4% – Protein from 63.1% 68.1% – Fat from 63.4% 73.2%– Food weight from 65.2% 69.7%– Production quantity increased from 63.9% 68.6% – Harvested area from 59.0% 62.1%– Production value from 64.6% 70.7%

• Greatest increases in Africa; West, South, Southeast, and East Asia; Central America; and Andean and tropical South America

• Among countries with largest increases in dependence in food supplies were those with major transitions in their production systems (e.g., the growth of oil palm cultivation in Malaysia and Indonesia; and soybean in Brazil)

• Dependence in fat increased the greatest degree

Dependence on “foreign” crops is associated with diversity

Production systemsFood supplies

David Cavagnaro

Dependence on “foreign” crops is associated with GDP

Production systemsFood supplies

Key results• All countries utilize crops whose genetic diversity

originates outside their borders, and therefore potentially benefit from international collaboration to access plant genetic resources

• Countries are highly interdependent, as 68.7% of their diets and 69.3% of their national agricultural production systems are comprised of crops whose genetic diversity largely originates outside their borders

• Countries’ dependence has increased over the past 50 years in concert with economic and agricultural development and the globalization of food systems. Increased utilization of these ‘foreign’ crops is correlated with greater dietary diversity and higher GDP

The global food system and the MLS

• Present MLS focuses on cereal, pulse, starchy root, and forage crops. Oil crops, vegetables and fruits not well covered

• 28.7% of calories in global aggregate food supplies, 19.0% of protein, 61.0% of fat, and 43.4% of food weight are comprised of crops not currently covered by the MLS

• 41.0% of total global production quantity, 27.0% of harvested area, and 41.2% of global production value are comprised of crops not currently covered by the MLS

Where our Food Crops Come from: A new estimation of countries’ interdependence in plant genetic resources. CIAT Policy Brief No. 25.

Estimation of Countries’ Interdependence in Plant Genetic Resources Provisioning National Food Supplies and Production Systems. International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, Research Study 8. http://www.planttreaty.org/content/research-paper-8

Thank you!Further information:

c.khoury@cgiar.org | luigi.guarino@croptrust.org