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Forward London
May 2017Each participant will receive a brief presentation deck at the end of the webinar
w w w . f o r w a r d k e y s . c o m
WebinarForward London
May 2017
“Know tomorrow’s travellers”
Topics of the Webinar
#1 Aftermath of the Westminster terror attack
#2 Seasonality comparative analysis
#3 Forward looking summer season
#4 Impact of tourism sales on London trade
Meet the speakersw w w . f o r w a r d k e y s . c o m
Luis MillanSenior AnalystPresenter
Kyle MongHead of Insight at
New West End CompanyGuest Speaker
Laura RodríguezLead AnalystModerator
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.5/26
Forward London
#1 Aftermath of the Westminster terror attack
#2 Seasonality comparative analysis
#3 Forward looking summer season
#4 Impact of tourism sales on London trade
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.6/26
Rising concerns over security in Western and Northern Europe
#1. Westminster attack
22nd
March
Westminster terror attack
23rdMarch
China issues safety warning against the UK (until 22nd April)
20th
April
Shootings at Champs Elysees
Paris7th
April
Stockholm truck attack
1st
May
The U.S. issues a Travel Alert for Europe
during summer (until 1st September)
22ndMay
Manchester Arena
bombing 23rdMay
UK's threat level raised to "critical"
24thMay
Travel warnings for travelling to
the UK: Australia, Hong Kong
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.7/26
NAMEEUR
Arrivals in Easter: 6th to 19th April 2017 vs. 17th to 30th March 2016.Booking dates: 8th March to 5th April 2017 vs. 17th February to 16th March 2016
Length of stay between 2 and 21 nights. Excluded one-way trips.Geographic distribution according to UNWTO.
Easter results not impacted by the terror attack
LON
2 weeks before
+4% -13%
2 weeks after
North America
Arrivals in Easter(Compared to equivalent Easter period in 2016)
Total Int’l+25%
From North America
+29%
From Europe+26%
Average lead time: 81 days
Average leadtime: 87 days
Bookings for travelling during the Easter holidays from…
#1. Westminster attack
Europe
2 weeks before
+3% -20%
2 weeks after
Share of late bookers:(Lead time <30 days)
17%20%
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.8/26
China Travel warning against the UK(From 23rd March to 22nd April)
Bookings for travelling in London in any given date issued between 23rd February and 2nd May 2017 vs. 25th February to 4th May 2016.
Length of stay between 2 and 21 nights. Excluded one-way trips.Geographic distribution according to UNWTO.
Growth in Chinese bookings slowed down during the travel warning
North & South East Asian bookings for travelling to London
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
North & SouthEast Asia
China
Total North East Asia +10%China +23%
#1. Westminster attack
Total North East Asia +28% China +56%
23 Feb 2 Mar 9 Mar 16 Mar 23 Mar 30 Apr 6 Apr 13 Apr 20 Apr 27 Apr
After Westminsterattack
Before Westminsterattack
LON
NEASSEAS
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.9/26
Length of stay between 2 and 21 nights. Excluded one-way trips.
Long haul: Only non-European countries. Geographic distribution according to UNWTO.
Arrivals to selected destinations between 1st January and 22nd May 2017 vs. 3rd January to 23rd May 2016. Arrivals on the book to selected destinations between 23rd May and 31st August as of 22nd May 2017 vs. 25th May to 1st September as of 23rd May 2016.
Inbound tourism could still be promising
#1. Westminster attack
*as of 22nd May
Manchester London United Kingdom
Arrivals (Year-to-22nd May) +5.1% +9.2% +8.0%
Arrivals on the book* (23rd May to 31st August) +8.9% +16.0% +15.0%
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.10/26
Forward London#1 Aftermath of the Westminster terror attack
• Westminster attack had minor impact on bookings, without damaging the optimistic Easter results
• Chinese Safety Warning had a limited impact for group bookings
• Inbound tourism to the UK promising
#1. Westminster attack
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.11/26
Forward London
#1 Aftermath of the Westminster terror attack
#2 Seasonality comparative analysis
#3 Forward looking summer season
#4 Impact of tourism sales on London trade
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.12/26
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total long haul
2015
2016
2017 YTD
Late summer peak coming from GCC countries and APAC
Arrivals in London between 2nd January 2015 to 27th April 2017 (Fri to Thu weekly arrivals)
Excluded: Domestic flights, one-way tickets and transits.Only pax staying 2 to 21 nights at destination.
#2. SeasonalityAnalysis
1Q: +17% 2Q: +28% 3Q: +33% 4Q: +22%
6 weeks: 17%
Mid June to mid July
September
Average length of stay: 8 days, in a 12-day tripAverage number of pax per booking: 3
North AmericaGCC countries
Oceania
Christmas
CanadaUAE, KuwaitHK, Singapore, Malaysia
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.13/26
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
4%
5%
5%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
North America
2015
2016
2017 YTD
44% 60%
11%
North America: different targets in the 3 key moments
#2. Seasonality analysis
Arrivals in London between 2nd January 2015 to 27th April 2017 (Fri to Thu weekly arrivals)
Excluded: Domestic flights, one-way tickets and transits.Only pax staying 2 to 21 nights at destination.
Spring / Easter holidays
Fall periodEarly June to
late July
43%of long haul
arrivals
#2. SeasonalityAnalysis
Solotravellers
Family-size groups (2-4 pax)
Large groups (10+ pax)
1Q: +18% 2Q: +30% 3Q: +30% 4Q: +22%
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.14/26
GCC counties: Most travellers are arriving in one month from now
#2. Seasonality analysis
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Gulf Cooperation Council countries
2015
2016
2017 YTD
Arrivals in London between 2nd January 2015 to 27th April 2017 (Fri to Thu weekly arrivals)
Excluded: Domestic flights, one-way tickets and transits.Only pax staying 2 to 21 nights at destination.
Summer holiday
Mid-term holidays
New Year
32%
#2. SeasonalityAnalysis
8%of long haul
arrivals
1Q: +20% 2Q: +19% 3Q: +39% 4Q: +22%
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.15/26
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
North East Asia
2015
2016
2017 YTD
North East Asia: China shapes the seasonality
#2. Seasonality analysis
Arrivals in London between 2nd January 2015 to 27th April 2017 (Fri to Thu weekly arrivals)
Excluded: Domestic flights, one-way tickets and transits.Only pax staying 2 to 21 nights at destination.
Chinese New Year
Summer holidays
Mid-Autumn Festival China’s National Day Golden Week
23% in 6 weeks
#2. SeasonalityAnalysis
14%of long haul
arrivals
1Q: +16% 2Q: +24% 3Q: +40% 4Q: +21%
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.16/26
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
South Asia
2015
2016
2017 YTD40% in 12 weeks
South Asia: Indian summer comes first
#2. Seasonality analysis
Arrivals in London between 2nd January 2015 to 27th April 2017 (Fri to Thu weekly arrivals)
Excluded: Domestic flights, one-way tickets and transits.Only pax staying 2 to 21 nights at destination.
Late April to late June
#2. SeasonalityAnalysis
8%of long haul
arrivals
Autumn holidays
1Q: +13% 2Q: +39% 3Q: +29% 4Q: +20%
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.17/26
Forward London#2 Seasonality comparative analysis
• North America: 3 key periods with different traveller profiles, groups in Spring, families in Summer, solo travelers in Fall.
• GCC countries arrivals are heavily concentrated during the Summer holidays, starting from end of Ramadan until the Feast of Sacrifice.
• North East Asia: Predictable pattern, concentrated in July due to Chinese groups.
Chinese New Year#2. Seasonality
Analysis
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.18/26
Forward London
#1 Aftermath of the Westminster terror attack
#2 Seasonality comparative analysis
#3 Forward looking summer season
#4 Impact of tourism sales on London trade
© ForwardDataSL,2017.AllRightsReserved.2
Inbound London: growth in arrivals with Americas and Asia Pacific contributing the most.
#1.TravelHistoryInboundLondon
Totalint’larrivalsinLondonJanuary1st toJune30th 2017vs.sameperiodpreviousyear.
Onlypaxstaying2to21nightsinLondon.
TotalLong-haulInt’lArrivalsinLondon
TheAmericas(Shares;%YoYVar)
(52%;+19%)
Africa(Shares;%YoYVar)
(6%;+2%)
AsiaPacific(Shares;%YoYVar)
(34%;+14%)MiddleEast(Shares;%YoYVar)
(8%;+12%)
LON
January1sttoJune30th2017
(100%;+16%)(Shares;%YoYVar)
© ForwardDataSL,2017.AllRightsReserved.3
Inbound London: rapid growth started after the exchange rate decreased to its lowest level in 5 years.
#1.TravelHistoryInboundLondon
Totalint’llong-haularrivalsorbookingsfromJanuary1st 2016toJune30th2017vs.sameperiodpreviousyear.
Onlypaxstaying2to21nightsinLondon.
23rd Jun:Brexitvote
13th Jul:TheresaMay
asthenewPM
8th Jun:UKGeneralelection
29th Mar:Two-year
negotiationsbegan
2016H1 2017H1what’snext?
2016H2
Mid-Oct:GBPexchangerate“flashcrash”
-18.6%
1.281.481.47 1.22
+4.9%+0.1%
-2.8%
Int’llong-haularrivalsinLondon
-4.5% +4.9%
Int’llong-haulbookingstoLondon
+17.0%
-2.0% +14.0%
BrusselAirportattackon22nd Mar
Trumpwonon8th Nov
June23rd October16th June30th
© ForwardDataSL,2017.AllRightsReserved.4
Inbound London: currently robust outlook thanks to the Americas and Asia Pacific
#1.ForwardlookinginboundLondon
Totalint’larrivalsinLondonJuly1st toOctober31st 2017withissuedbookingsasofJuly1st 2017vs.sameperiodpreviousyear.
Onlypaxstaying2to21nightsandmoreinLondon.
TotalLong-haulInt’lArrivalsinLondon
Onthebook
TheAmericas(Shares;%YoYVar)
(50%;+21%)
Africa(Shares;%YoYVar)
(5%;+15%)
AsiaPacific(Shares;%YoYVar)
(39%;+14%)MiddleEast(Shares;%YoYVar)
(6%;-20%)
LON
July1sttoOctober31st2017
(100%;+14%)(Shares;%YoYVar)
© ForwardDataSL,2017.AllRightsReserved.5
+26% +22%
+18% +14%
+13% +12%
+10% +10%
+8% +6%
+16%
4% 4% 3% 12% 9% 5% 7% 3% 3% 2% 49%
Madrid
Amsterdam
Milan
London
Paris
Barcelona
Rome
Istanbul
Frankfurt
Munich
Others
%Var.of long-haularrivalsonthebook
%ShareinEurope
London enjoys the biggest share in Europe and a good growing outlook
#2.ForwardlookingInboundLondon
TotalInt’llong-haultoEuropeontheBook
(100%;+15%)(Shares;%YoYVar)
Europe
Totalint’llong-haularrivalsinthedestinationsJuly1sttoOctober31st 2017withissuedbookingsasofJuly1st 2017vs.sameperiodpreviousyear.
Onlypaxstaying2to21nightsindestinations.
© ForwardDataSL,2017.AllRightsReserved.6
-23% -20%
+0.3% -15%
-34% -52%
SaudiArabiaUAE
KuwaitEgypt
BahrainQatar
%Var.of arrivalsonthebook
+67% +48% +43%
+35% +29%
+24% +18%
+13% +13% +12% +11% +9% +9%
0.5% 3% 1% 8% 2%
34% 2% 4% 2% 5%
11% 1% 1%
ChileBrazil
TaiwanChina
SouthAfricaU.S.A.MexicoIndia
ArgentinaHongKongAustraliaNigeria
Thailand
%Var.of arrivalsonthebook%Share
Top origin countries and oil giant’s performance
#2.ForwardlookingInboundLondon
Totalint’llong-haularrivalsinthedestinationsJuly1sttoOctober31st 2017withissuedbookingsasofJuly1st 2017vs.sameperiodpreviousyear.
Onlypaxstaying2to21nightsinLondon
LONTop10MostGrowingOriginCountries*
*Top10afterexcludingBrazil,China,andIndiainthisslide.NextslideaboutBRIC
MiddleEastCountriesonthebook
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.21/26
2017 End of Ramadan GCC departure pattern is very different from 2016
#3. Forward lookingoutbound GCC
Total int’l arrivals in the destinations May 17th to July 31st 2017 with issued bookings as of May 7th 2017 vs. same period previous year.
Only pax staying 2 to 21 nights in London.
Mark a period ±10 days from the date of Ramadan end
17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun 21-Jun 28-Jun 5-Jul 12-Jul 19-Jul 26-Jul
Daily
GCC
dep
artu
res (
on th
e bo
ok)
2016 final departures 2016 forward looking 2017 forward looking
??2017 End of Ramadan:
June 24th 2016 End of Ramadan:July 6th
© ForwardDataSL,2017.AllRightsReserved.7
LengthofstayinLON 8nights 9nights 9nights 10nights
Lengthoftrip 15days 11days 20days 12days
Paxperbooking 3persons 7persons 3persons 4persons
+39% +22% +19% +15%
+48% +46% +13% +35%
Europe
London
BRIC travellers love London
#2.ForwardlookingBRICtoLondon
Totalint’llong-haularrivalsinthedestinationsJuly1sttoOctober31st 2017withissuedbookingsasofJuly1st 2017vs.sameperiodpreviousyear.
Onlypaxstaying2to21nightsinLondon.
© ForwardDataSL,2017.AllRightsReserved.8
BusiestterminalinLHR T5 T5 T4 T4
Busiestarrivalhoursduringaday
inLHR
6-8am(17%)1-4pm(40%)
7-8am(13%)9-10am(13%)12-1pm(19%)6-7pm(15%)
6-8am(24%)5-8pm(31%)
4-7pm(38%)8-9pm(12%)
DirectFlights
Transitonceormoretime
BRIC travel pattern till terminal on the book
#2.ForwardlookingBRICtoLondon
Totalint’llong-haularrivalsinthedestinationsJuly1sttoOctober31st 2017withissuedbookingsasofJuly1st 2017vs.sameperiodpreviousyear.
Onlypaxstaying2to21nightsinLondon.
25% 74% 42% 55%
75% 26% 38% 45%
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.25/26
Forward London#3 Forward looking summer season (17th May to 31st August)
• Busy summer ahead for London (+20% long-haul on the book).
• GCC performance is weak, but Saudi travellers may still book for the summer period thanks to the pay cut reverse.
• BRIC countries show great interest in London (+50% for B,R,C, +14% for I).
#3. Forward lookingInbound London
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.26/26
Forward London
#1 Aftermath of the Westminster terror attack
#2 Seasonality comparative analysis
#3 Forward looking summer season
#4 Impact of tourism sales on London trade
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.27/26
2016 spend profileInternational v European v domestic mix
27Source: Premier Tax Free, Tax Free Data
£
#4. Impact of tourism sales on London trade
Average Transaction
Values
Domestic£220
European£300
Chinaup to £1,780
Middle East up to £2,632
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.28/26
28
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Dec-
10Fe
b-11
Apr-
11Ju
n-11
Aug-
11O
ct-1
1De
c-11
Feb-
12Ap
r-12
Jun-
12Au
g-12
Oct
-12
Dec-
12Fe
b-13
Apr-
13Ju
n-13
Aug-
13O
ct-1
3De
c-13
Feb-
14Ap
r-14
Jun-
14Au
g-14
Oct
-14
Dec-
14Fe
b-15
Apr-
15Ju
n-15
Aug-
15O
ct-1
5De
c-15
Feb-
16Ap
r-16
Jun-
16Au
g-16
Oct
-16
Dec-
16Fe
b-17
Apr-
17
Yr/Y
r cha
nge
rolli
ng 1
2 m
onth
ave
EUR/
GBP
Sales Var - 12 Month rolling average EUR/GBP
Source: Oanda average currency rates, New West End Sales tracker
Brexit
Currency EffectsWest end sales performance tracks closely to fluctuation in sterlingOverall West End sales have been on positive trajectory since Brexit
#4. Impact of tourism sales on London trade
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.29/26
29
Sales var top nationalitiesChina, USA & Middle East
All data from Global Blue, a tax free company
#4. Impact of tourism sales on London trade
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
110%
Nov Dec Jan Feb March April
China United States Kuwait UAE Saudi Arabia TOTAL
Av. Sale £1,103Av. Sale £1,077Av. Sale £1,139Av. Sale £1,029Av. Sale £1,043Av. Sale £1,029
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.30/26
30
Sales by regionGrowth over last 6 months has been strong across the West End
All data from Global Blue, a tax free company
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
November December January February March April
Regent Street Bond Street Oxford Street Total West End
#4. Impact of tourism sales on London trade
© ForwardDataSL,2017.AllRightsReserved.9
MARKET
TotalInternational
PERIOD
Arrivals:January1st 2016toJune30th2017vs.sameperiodpreviousyear.
ArrivalsOnTheBook:July1st toOctober31st 2017vs.2016withbookingsasofJuly1st 2017.
Lengthofstayofarrivals:from2to21nights.
©ForwardDataSL,2017.Allrightsreserved.Thecontentandthedataprovidedinthisdocumentareforyourinformationand internaluseonly.Thecontentisprovided“asis”withoutanywarrantyastoaccuracy,completeness,satisfactoryqualityorfitnessforanyparticularpurpose.Itisstrictlyforbiddentoextract,reproduce,republishorpublicallydisplayanycontentincludedinthisdocumentwithoutthepriorwrittenauthorisation
ofForwardData,SL.Ifyouwishtouseanyofthiscontentorsimilardata,pleasecontactusoninfo@forwardkeys.com formoreinformationaboutourservices.SomeiconsmadebyFreepik fromwww.flaticon.com
DESTINATION
London
Methodology & Glossary
ThisanalysisisbasedonAirReservationDatapropertyofForwardKeys®asof1st July2017.Databasecontainsreservationshandledbymorethan200000onlineandofflinetravelagenciesworldwide
Arrivals: refer to the number of airline passengers arriving at thedestination within a specific time frame.
Arrivals on the Book (Arrivals OTB): refer to the number of airlinepassengers arriving at the destination within a specific future timeframe according to the bookings that have been issued as noted.
Departures: refer to the number of airline passengers departing fromany location within a specific time frame.
Departures on the Book (Departures OTB): refer to the number ofairline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific futuretime frame according to the bookings that have been issued as noted.
Bookings: represent air reservations made for travel to the specificdestination (i.e. UK) for any date of travel.
Capacity: Schedules for commercial flights between two specificlocations. Reflects the volume of passengers that can fly between onedestination and another using direct flights.
?
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