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February 25, 2012
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The bulls take a breather
Sensex (17924) / Nifty (5429)
After an extended weekend, markets opened quietly on Tuesday's
session and closed in the positive territory. However, all the
remaining sessions were in the favour of the bears. We had
stated in our earlier report that the "RSI-Smoothened" oscillator
was placed well within the extreme overbought zone. This
indicated exhaustion of the rally and indices corrected from
their highs to register the first weekly negative closing in 2012.
On the sectoral front, Realty, Banking, Capital Goods and Metal
sectors contributed heavily in this week's correction, whereas
IT and FMCG counters closed with a nominal gain. The Sensex
ended with a loss of 2%, whereas Nifty lost 2.43% vis-à-vis
the previous week.
Pattern Formation
The 200-day SMA and 20-day EMA have now shifted to
17200 / 517017200 / 517017200 / 517017200 / 517017200 / 5170 and 17720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 5370, respectively.
The "RSI-Smoothened" oscillator and "3 & 8 EMA" on the
daily chart have given a negative crossover.
The weekly "Stochastic" oscillator is negatively poised.
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall
21109 / 633921109 / 633921109 / 633921109 / 633921109 / 6339 (November 5, 2010) to 15135 / 453115135 / 453115135 / 453115135 / 453115135 / 4531
(December 23, 2011) is around 18827 / 564518827 / 564518827 / 564518827 / 564518827 / 5645.
Future Outlook
This week indices corrected after nearing their resistance zone
of 18756 / 564518756 / 564518756 / 564518756 / 564518756 / 5645. We are now observing that this resistance
zone almost coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracementlevel of the fall from 21109 / 633921109 / 633921109 / 633921109 / 633921109 / 6339 (November 5, 2010) to
15135 / 453115135 / 453115135 / 453115135 / 453115135 / 4531 (December 23, 2011). Further, we are observing
a negative placement of "Daily RSI-Smoothened", "3 & 8 daily
EMA" and "Weekly Stochastic" oscillators. This indicates possibility
of a further correction or consolidation. At present, indices have
a decent support zone around its "Daily 20-EMA" level of
17720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 5370. The negative impact of above mentioned
technical observations will be seen only if indices sustain below
17720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 537017720 / 5370 level. In this scenario, the possibility of testing
17500 - 17200 / 5300 - 520017500 - 17200 / 5300 - 520017500 - 17200 / 5300 - 520017500 - 17200 / 5300 - 520017500 - 17200 / 5300 - 5200 levels cannot be ruled out.
Conversely, the immediate resistance is at 18200 / 552218200 / 552218200 / 552218200 / 552218200 / 5522 level.
A move beyond this level may push indices higher to test
18293 - 18524 / 5561 - 563018293 - 18524 / 5561 - 563018293 - 18524 / 5561 - 563018293 - 18524 / 5561 - 563018293 - 18524 / 5561 - 5630 levels. In the short term, marketshave a stiff resistance zone of 18756 - 18524 / 5645 - 563018756 - 18524 / 5645 - 563018756 - 18524 / 5645 - 563018756 - 18524 / 5645 - 563018756 - 18524 / 5645 - 5630
levels. If indices manage to cross this resistance zone then they
are likely to test important resistance of 18945 / 570218945 / 570218945 / 570218945 / 570218945 / 5702 level.
W W W W W e reiterate that traders should adopt cautious approach ande reiterate that traders should adopt cautious approach ande reiterate that traders should adopt cautious approach ande reiterate that traders should adopt cautious approach ande reiterate that traders should adopt cautious approach and
trade with strict stoptrade with strict stoptrade with strict stoptrade with strict stoptrade with strict stop-loss.-loss.-loss.-loss.-loss.
Source: Falcon
Exhibit 1: Sensex weekly chart
Source: Falcon
Exhibit 2: Sensex daily chart
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February 25, 2012
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Technical Research Team
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks
SENSEX
NIFTY
BANKNIFTY
ACC
AMBUJACEM
AXISBANK
BAJAJ-AUTO
BHARTIARTL
BHEL
BPCL
CAIRN
CIPLA
COALINDIA DLF
DRREDDY
GAIL
HCLTECH
HDFC
HDFCBANK
HEROHONDA
HINDALCO
HINDUNILVR
ICICIBANK
IDFC
INFOSYSTCH
ITCJINDALSTEL
JPASSOCIAT
KOTAKBANK
LT
M&M
MARUTI
NTPC
ONGC
PNB
POWERGRID
RANBAXY
RCOM
RELIANCE
RELINFRA
RPOWER
SAIL
SBIN
SESAGOA
SIEMENS
STER
SUNPHARMA
SUZLON
TATAMOTORS
TATAPOWER
TATASTEEL
TCS
WIPRO
SCRIPS18,774 18,349 18,099 17,674 17,424
5,712 5,571 5,488 5,347 5,264
11,514 11,011 10,723 10,219 9,932
1,426 1,347 1,301 1,222 1,177
183 172 165 154 147
1,355 1,269 1,223 1,137 1,090
1,872 1,818 1,785 1,731 1,698
375 359 346 330 317
338 321 311 294 284
708 682 643 617 579
410 396 387 372 363
330 322 318 309 305
338 333 325 320 313274 250 238 214 201
1,686 1,658 1,636 1,608 1,586
391 383 377 369 362
509 501 492 484 474
749 713 685 649 621
550 537 526 514 503
2,250 2,162 2,109 2,021 1,969
163 156 150 142 136
398 392 384 378 370
1,030 981 950 900 869
160 150 144 134 128
3,038 2,993 2,949 2,904 2,860
214 212 209 206 203678 645 622 589 565
91 83 78 70 65
599 575 561 537 523
1,527 1,438 1,389 1,300 1,251
790 760 739 709 688
1,363 1,324 1,298 1,259 1,233
194 189 185 179 175
313 299 290 276 267
1,136 1,051 1,006 920 876
119 116 113 111 107
465 447 436 418 407
116 105 99 87 81
874 847 831 804 788
678 632 605 558 531
138 129 123 113 107
119 112 108 101 97
2,572 2,389 2,292 2,109 2,012
270 249 236 214 202
858 825 806 773 754
146 132 122 109 99
568 558 547 537 527
34 30 28 25 23
281 273 268 260 255
128 121 114 108 101
520 498 479 457 438
1,328 1,299 1,252 1,223 1,176
457 447 441 432 426
R2R2R2R2R2 R1R1R1R1R1 PIV PIV PIV PIV PIV OOOOOTTTTT S1S1S1S1S1 S2S2S2S2S2
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February 25, 2012
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Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |Derivatives Review |
5200-5300 is very strong support zone for March series
Nifty spot closed at 5429.305429.305429.305429.305429.30 this week, against a close of 5564.305564.305564.305564.305564.30 last week. The Put-Call Ratio decreased from 1.701.701.701.701.70 to 1.331.331.331.331.33 levels
and the annualized Cost of Carry is positive 11.8511.8511.8511.8511.85%. The Open Interest of Nifty Futures decreased by 10.7110.7110.7110.7110.71%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis Implied Volatility Analysis
PCR-OI has declined to 1.33 from 1.70 as its beginning of
new expiry. In march series we are witnessing heightened activity
in 5200 and 5300 zone which we believe is strong support
zone for the market. Call activity is very scattered and strikes as
far as 6000 option is also active for Nifty. However 5500 and
5700 strike calls have maximum open interest as of now.
Implied Volatility (IV) for NIFTY has increased from 16.20% to
23.50%. Historical volatility (HV) is at 21.20% and that for
BANKNIFTY is trading at 35.32%. Liquid counters having very
high HV are LITL, VOLTAS, HDIL, ADANIPOWER and UNITECH.
Stocks where HV are on lower side are ITC, DRREDDY,
COREEDUTEC, SUNPHARMA and TCS.
Nifty futures closed at a premium of 58.15 points against the
premium of 46.00 points to its spot. Next month future is trading
with premium of 90.45 points. Liquid counters where CoC is
high are ALOKTEXT, COREEDUTEC, INDUSINDBK, ABGSHIP
and NHPC. Stocks with negative CoC are SUZLON,
COALINDIA, ABAN, ESCORTS and PUNJLLOYD.
Total open interest of market has decreased from ` 1,51,513/-
crores to ` 1,03,536/- crores. Stock futures open interest has
decreased from ` 36,310/- crores to ` 30,678/- crores. Some
of the liquid counters which added open interest are OFSS,
STER, ESSAROIL, GSPL and DISHTV. Open interest was shed in
some large cap names like AXISBANK, SBIN, LICHSGFIN, BHEL
and MARUTI.
Open Interest Analysis Cost-of-Carry Analysis
Scrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTYScrip : NIFTY CMP : 5429.30CMP : 5429.30CMP : 5429.30CMP : 5429.30CMP : 5429.30 LLLLLot Size : 50ot Size : 50ot Size : 50ot Size : 50ot Size : 50 Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :Exercise Date (F & O) :
29th March, 2012
Expected Payoff View: Mildly Bullish
5275
5400
5525
5650
5775
5900
BEPBEPBEPBEPBEP::::: 5800
Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk:Max. Risk: Unlimited Max. PMax. PMax. PMax. PMax. Profit:rofit:rofit:rofit:rofit: ` 10,000/-
If NIFTY continue to move above BEP. If NIFTY closes at 5600 on expiry
NONONONONOTETETETETE::::: Profit can be booked before expiry if NIFTY moves in the favorable direction and time value decays.
Strategy: Ratio Bull Call Spread
Buy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/SellBuy/Sell Qty Qty Qty Qty Qty ScripScripScripScripScrip StrikeStrikeStrikeStrikeStrike SeriesSeriesSeriesSeriesSeries OptionOptionOptionOptionOption Buy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell RateBuy/Sell Rate
PPPPPricericericericerice TTTTTypeypeypeypeype ((((( ` ` ` ` ` )))))
BUY 50 NIFTY 5400 MAR CE 200.00
SELL 100 NIFTY 5600 MAR CE 100.00
Closing PClosing PClosing PClosing PClosing Pricericericericerice ExpectedExpectedExpectedExpectedExpected((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) PPPPProfit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lrofit/Lossossossossoss
0
0
` 125.00
` 150.00
` 25.00
( ` 100.00)
Derivative Strategy
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Weekly
Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
Ratings (Returns) :
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