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PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!

Tuesday, July 31, 2012 !2:00 PM EDT/11:00AM PDT!

Shyam Mehta !Senior Analyst !GTM Research!

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Speaker:!

Shayle Kann!Vice President, Research!

 GTM Research!!

Moderator:!

PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!

Annual Flagship Report!

GTM Research: Supply-Side Coverage!

For more information, contact sales@gtmresearch.com or call 617-500-6243 Purchase online at www.gtmresearch.com!!

Ongoing Data and Market Intelligence!

Additional Resources and Analysis!

PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!Shyam Mehta, Senior Analyst, Solar

Report Scope!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

§  Technology Analysis!

§  Current Industry Status !

§  Manufacturing Cost Structure Estimates!

§  Production Capacity Forecasts!

§  Market Forecasts!

§  Competitive Positioning and Industry Dynamics! !§  300 pages, ~250 exhibits, >300 firms covered!

What’s New?!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

§ Technology Analysis: Focus on Next-gen Technologies!Ø  Cast/Quasi-mono ingot growth!Ø Diamond wire sawing!Ø  Selective emitter!Ø Cost of ownership and efficiency analysis!

§  Manufacturing Cost Structure: Unprecedented Granularity!Ø  Line-item specific inputs for all key consumables!Ø  Differentiation by manufacturing location, technology/sub-technology, cost profile!Ø  Data collection and benchmarking across >50 industry sources!

§  Market Forecasts: Robust Methodologies!Ø  ”Smart” capacity forecasting based on capital availability, buy-build decisions, comp. positioning!Ø  Multivariate regression-based price forecasting!Ø  Buy-build analysis!

§  Competitive Positioning: More Comprehensive than Ever Before!Ø  Analysis along all key determinants (cost, bankability, business/tech/product differentiation, brand)!Ø Maps evolution of market taxonomy and consolidation dynamics with market outcomes for specific firms (winners, acquisition candidates, question marks, market exits)!Ø  Analyzes module supplier strategies, especially for non-Chinese firms!

Technology Analysis: Cell Efficiency!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

Commercialized Cell Efficiencies, Q4 2009-Q4 2016E!

Must differentiate by crystal structure, wafer type, and sub-technology (selective emitter, backside passivation, etc)!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

Overcapacity: To Persist As Long As China Continues Supporting Uncompetitive Firms!Ramped Capacity vs. Global Installations, 2007-2016E!

Cost Structure Buildup: Silicon Cost/Usage!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

c-Si Cast Mono+Diamond Wire+Selective Emitter, Q4 2009-Q4 2016E!

Cost Structure Buildup: Module Processing!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

1 GW EU/JP/US Fab, Cast Mono c-Si + Selective Emitter!

Cost Structure Buildup: All-in Module Cost!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

$1.33

$1.09

$0.96

$0.64

$0.55$0.51

$0.47 $0.46

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

$/W

All-in Module Cost Including Scale Gains, Vertically Integrated Fab, China Best-in-Class, Q4 2009-Q4 2016E

Silicon Ingot/Wafer Cell Module All-in Module Plant Capacity (MW)

How to Estimate Manufacturer-Specific Costs?!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

Estimation of Blended Manufacturing Cost, Canadian Solar China!

Price Forecasting: Multivariate Regression!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

Predicted vs. Actual PV Component Prices, Q4 2007-Q4 2011!

Independent variables: !1.  Manufacturer costs (supplier-side variable) – Q4 all-in cost!2.  Supply-demand balance indicator (demand-side variable) – overcapacity ratio!

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Competitive Analysis: The Metrics that Matter!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

Supply Stacks: A Useful Heuristic for Competitive Positioning Analysis!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

Efficiency/Performance-Adjusted Module Supply Stack, Q4 2015E!

When Will the Pain Stop?!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

Blended Component Gross Margins, Q4 2009 - Q4 2016E!

Upstream Capacity: Buy or Build?!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

Wafer Price vs. All-in Cost for Internal Consumption, Q4 2009-2016E!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

The Evolution of the Competitive Landscape!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

Thank You!!

Shyam Mehta!Senior Analyst, Solar!GTM Research!mehta@gtmresearch.com!!

Annual Flagship Report!

GTM Research: Supply-Side Coverage!

For more information, contact sales@gtmresearch.com or call 617-500-6243 Purchase online at www.gtmresearch.com!!

Ongoing Data and Market Intelligence!

Additional Resources and Analysis!

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