May 12, 2014

University of Milano BicoccaURBEUR-QUASI PhD Programme

The evolution of the WebPart I: The story

Roberto PolilloDepartment of Informatics, Systems and CommunicationsUniversity of Milano Bicocca

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Our goal: to discuss the evolution of the Web

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Part I (today): The story A summary of the milestones / paradigms of the evolution of the Web: 1990-today

Part II (next Monday): The driving forcesA summary of market mechanisms that drive the growth of the Web online services

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"You cannot step into the same river twice"

"Change alone is unchanging"

Heraclitus

The evolution of the Web

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From the first Web site (1991), the Web is continuously growing and changing its nature

In parallel, telephony is drastically changed (fixed → mobile)

Drivers of this evolution: tecnology, market, people behaviour

Four Internet paradigms

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1995+

Corporate sites Web portals Search engines E-commerce Web as an interface ….

HYPERTEXT, eCOMMERCE

2005+

Blogs Social networks UGC Cooperative

creation Sharing Reusable

contents …

SOCIAL MEDIA1985+

E-mail File transfer Newsgroups ….

COMMUNICATION NETWORK

2015+MOBILE WEB

Mobile devices Cloud computing Geolocalzation Camera phone Augmented

reality Electronic wallet

Four Internet paradigms

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Mobile devices

Desktop + laptop

Worldwide installed base

Growth8

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Web sites growth (world)

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Source: http://gandalf.it/dati

millions

Active sites

"Dead"sites

Web sites languages

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage

(April 2013)

Internet host growth (World)

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Source: Internet Systems Consortium, from Wikipediahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage

Internet users growth (World)

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Source: ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2013 (onlinte)

Growth of .it domains

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13th

ou

sand

s

Source: http://gandalf.it/dati

Internet traffic growth (World)

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http://gizmodo.com/5614841/

web

video

p2p

Nature of Internet traffic

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Da Wired

Paradigm #1: Web 1.016

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Web 1.0

MS ExplorerAmazoneBayIPO Netscape

1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001 2002

First web siteat

CERN

W3CNetscape NavigatorYahoo

Mosaic

GoogleMozilla

NapsterPaypal

Max NASDAQ

9/11

MinNASDAQ

Nasdaq Composite Index

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Web 1.0: main characteristics

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Site content produced by site publisher Hierarchical organization and navigation thru menu Single user web site interaction Interaction with data bases "Closed" services (“get the user and keep her within

site”)

Narrowband connection

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Web 1.0 Web sites

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Corporate Web sites Portals and search engines eCommerce [Enterprise portals]

Corporate Web sites

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Target: customers, investors, press, general public

Who & where we are, what we do, our products / services, [online sales]

Portals

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Access to set of online resources Thematic "channels" General portals vs "vortals" Personalization (“myPortal”) Very large developments in late '90s

www.yahoo.comfrom 1994, always among the first 5 more visited sites

Short history of Yahoo!

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1996: http://web.archive.org/web/19961022175643/http://www10.yahoo.com/ 1999: http://web.archive.org/web/19990208021636/http://www12.yahoo.com/ 2001: http://web.archive.org/web/20011108000033/http://www.yahoo.com/ 2003 http://web.archive.org/web/20031211113526/http://www.yahoo.com/ 2005 http://web.archive.org/web/20051220154406/http://www.yahoo.com/? 2007: http://web.archive.org/web/20071229022936/http://www.yahoo.com/ 2010: http://web.archive.org/web/20101016230535/http://www.yahoo.com/ Today: www.yahoo.com

http://www.archive.org/ (from 1996)

Italy: the beginning

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VideoOnLine (Grauso, 1994 → Tin.it, 1996)

(1996)

Enterprise portals

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Internal to organization: Document management Internal communication Internal procedures and forms Front-end to corporate information systems

Private corporate networks slowly adopt Internet protocols ("intranet")

E-commerce: main success stories

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http://www.amazon.com from 1995

Current size:http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=amazon.com

http://www.ebay.com from 1995

Current size:http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ebay.com

The "dot.com bubble"27

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IPO (Initial Public Offering) frenzy

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dot.com frenzy started by Netscape IPO (Aug 9, 1995) Founded 18 months earlier 16 M$ revenues, no profit Market cap at IPO: 1 B$ (!)

Large venture capital, to bring startups to IPO Many irrealistic business models NASDAQ bubble, then fall (2000-2001) Silicon Valley stops completely

The "dot.com bubble”

MS ExplorerAmazoneBayIPO Netscape

1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001 2002

First web site atCERN

W3CNetscape NavigatorYahoo

Mosaic

GoogleMozilla

NapsterPaypal

Max NASDAQ

9/11

MinNASDAQ

Nasdaq Composite Index

March 10 2000: index at

5132

March 10 2000: index at

5132

Oct 9 2002: index at 1114Oct 9 2002:

index at 1114

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But the life continues….

Paradigm #2: Web 2.031

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Web 2.0: birth of a name

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First O’Reilly Media Web 2.0 Conference (Oct 2004) The Internet community realizes that the Web is changed…

Web 2.0 key aspects

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Social media: The user is the leading actor User interaction throu the Web: one-to-many (blog), many-to-many (social media) Services to host User Generated Content (UGC), to be shared with other users Collective creation User rating in e-commerce "Market are conversations" (Cluetrain manifesto, 1999-2000)

The Web as a computing platform: Online services, virtualization Perpetuale beta Component and service mashups Rich Internet Applications (RIA) technologies

Web 2.0

2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Twitter, Slideshare, ScribdGoogle DocsYouTube

, Joomla, NingFlickr,

Facebook

Skype WordPressBlogger LinkedIn iPhone

GrouponAndroid, Dropbox

FoursquareWhatsApp

iPad, PinterestInstagram

Google+

Wikipedia

(In red start of mobile Web)

Internet traffic v

ideo

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Xmas 2006

Media acknowledge the paradigm change

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Top 5 sites (Q4/09 – Q1/13)

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Source: Alexa

Another bubble?

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Netscape IPO

Google IPOAug 19 2004

LinkedIn IPO(NYSE)

Facebook IPO

Twitter IPO(NYSE)

1994

1995

1997

1996

March 10 2000:5049

(Indice Nasdaq 1994-2013)

In the meanwhile, telephony changes…38

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Fasi della storia del Web39

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SMS

2 G

Nokia 5110

GSM (candybar)SMS, watch, sveglia, rubrica, calcolatrice, rubrica, giochi, suonerie

MMS

WAP

2.5 G

Motorola V3 RAZR

"Feature phone"GPRS (candybar, clamshell) + MMS,,photocamera, email, (Internet)

Touch phone

iPhone+ multitouch, sensors, GPS, app, …

3 G

Blackberry

"Smartphone"+ alphanumeric kb, PDA, video, GPS, radio, MP3, OS, …TELEFONIA

MOBILE

TIM, Omnitel

Firs

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site

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91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0990 10 11 12Goo

gle

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IP telephony

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Skype Internet based video-telephony, free Starting 2003, acquired by eBay in 2005, then by

Microsoft in 2011 (8,5 B$) 2012: 700 ml accounts; one third of all international

calls pass through Skype Jan 2013: 50 ml concurrent users

WhatsApp Free SMS via IP Started in 2009, acquired by Facebook in 2014 (19

B$)

The "mobile miracle"

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ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2012

Mobile cellular subscriptions

6 years gap

ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2013

Internet users

90% of world population has

access to a cellphone

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Paradigm #3: Mobile Web44

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Apple iPhone (2007)

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Android

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Linux based mobile OS Initially developed by Android Inc., acquired by Google

in 2005 Open-source First android phone: end 2008 Today the largest market share for mobile OS

Mobile OS market share

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Source: StatCounter

Apple iPAD (2010)

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Samsung Galaxy S series (Android)

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2010 2013

Mobile installed base (World)

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"Leap-frogging"

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"Mobile" may be misleading…

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Emphasis is not on the "moveability" Emphasis is on the fact that we always bring them with us

Small, portable, personal, context-aware, multi-function devices…

… which can also be used to make a phone call

A complete paradigm change

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Access from fixed location

Ubiquitous, contextualizedl

access

Device is geo-localized, has eyes, hears, voice, knows its user and is connected to a global computing platform

Devices change our behaviours

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Monthly pro-capite use of cellphones in USA: voice vs SMS (Nielsen)

Monthly pro-capite use of cellphones: voice vs SMS by age in USA

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Q2 2008, Nielsen

Camera phone

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Started circa 2002, with MMS services Now editing (photo and video) and immediate

uploading / sharing on the net >250 ml photos uploaded daily to Facebook Photo & videa cameras change their nature

http://bit.ly/VIIoX1 R.Polillo, May 201457

Samsung Cameraphone (Android)

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Camera eyes: QRCODE

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Augmented reality

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Augmented reality

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Augmented reality

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But we cannot do everything with a small, portable device…

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Mob

ile a

nd c

loud

com

putin

g ar

e st

rong

ly rel

ated

CLOUD

Tks Lara Ciccarelli per i disegni

And now…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErpNpR3XYUw apr 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNATuCkRWFE feb 2013

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Smart watches

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Smartphone voice assistant

Apple Siri: in iPhone 4S ott 2011, in iPad in set 2012Demo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtwVQhEXCcc

Google Voice Search/Google now: ottobre 2012, orientato al search

Microsoft Cortana: 2014 http://bgr.com/2014/04/14/cortana-vs-siri-vs-google-now

Il futuro anche nei sistemi di guida di autoveicoli

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Conclusion

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"You cannot step into the same river twice"

"Change alone is unchanging"

Heraclitus

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Thank you!

www.rpolillo.itRoberto.polillo@unimib.it