Weather Support for the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Games

Dr. Tom Potter

SLOC Weather Coordinatorand NOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional

Prediction. U. of Utah Department of Meteorology

Presented by John Horel

KSL

2002 Winter Games

• 2500 Athletes• 78 Events at 10 Venues• 1.5 Million Spectators• 9000 Accredited Media + 4 K more• 26,000 Volunteers + 5000 Staff• Budget $ 1.3 Billion• Games Labeled “Outstanding” by

Athletes,Spectators,TV Audience, and the Media.

KSL

Wasatch Front

KSL

D. Judd

Downtown Salt Lake City

KSL

Paralympics

CIRP

Weather Effects on Olympic Activities

• Sport Competition Delays• Transportation (Ground and Air)• Spectator Safety & Comfort• Medical Emergency Response• Security• Snowmaking & Snow Removal• Engineering & Construction:

Seats,tents,flags,displays,…• Environmental Quality & Air Pollution• Ceremonies with weather-critical shows

before 50,000+ people in stadium

Potential Wx Concerns

Westwide Avalanche Network

• Forecasts of Precipitation in the Mountains• Forecasts for tiny sports venues at precise

fixed times• Heavy Snow• Strong Winds• Too Warm for Snowmaking• Rain on Snow• Low Visibility: Fog or Snow• Lightning• Avalanches

• Air Pollution

Actual Weather

• Nearly perfect for Winter Games: Colder & drier than normal, with

no big snowstorms, strong wind gusts, or low visibilities

• Few weather delays/postponements

- Mostly from winds - Only one postponement from

snow - Potential wind/lightning impacts

at all 4 Opening/Closing Ceremonies

What Was Provided

• Forecasts & Warnings : For 5 Outdoor Venues,the Salt Lake Area, and Roads

• Official Weather Conditions at Venues

• Historical Climate Data: Venues & Cities plus Climate Forecasts from CPC

• Consultant advice on applications: snowmaking,engineering & construction, transportation, security, ceremonies,...

Who Did the Job

Unique Weather Team from public, private, academic and military sectors

- NWS WFO: Area-wide & road corridor fcsts, plus led twice-daily conference calls

- KSL : Detailed fcsts for sports venues

- U: Pre-Game Planning, Sensors, MesoWest, Research, Fcst Tools, Hi-Res Analyses & Fcsts, Wx Aides

- Hill AFB: Helicopter Support and TMOS

- NWS Western Region SSD, NCEP, SLOC IS/Comm/Others, USFS Avalanche Center, FSL (FX-Net), UOPSC

Real-time Operations

• Weather Operations Center at NWS Office near SLC Airport (24/7)

• Coordinator/Aides at SLOC/MOC(04-1900)

• Weather Forecasters at Outdoor Venues ( 0400 to 1800 on event days)

• Volunteer Weather Aides at Outdoor Venues: Official Obs (0600 to 1800)

• High-res MM5 and ADAS Runs, MesoWest DataBase at U of U (24/7)

• Aviation Weather from Hill AFB (24/7)

Weather Operations Center

KSL

Weather Operations Center

KSL

Media Operations Center

KSL

CIRP

KSL Weather Team

KSL

Hill AFB

CIRP

Ingredients for Success

• Planning Before the Games– Science

• IPEX February 2000 field program• Local studies

– Technology• FX-Net• MesoWest• MM5/MM5-MOS

IPEX field program during February 2000

Research ongoing to improve the understanding, analysis, and prediction of precipitation and precipitation processes in complex terrain

More information: BAMS. February 2002

J. Steenburgh

IPEX- Intermountain Precipitation Experiment

FX NET• PC-based weather display

system from NOAA/FSL

• Provides access to NWS/AWIPS information at outdoor venues and Hill AFB

• Insures all forecasters on Olympic team have access to the same weather information

KSL

MesoWest surface network

• 2600 stations & 70 networks in western US

• 250+ stations in northern Utah

• BAMS. February 2002

www.met.utah.edu/mesowest

Monitoring Weather

MesoWest

Mesoscale modeling/(MOS)

Mesoscale Model Skill

Temperature MAE

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Mountain Mountain Valley Wasatch FrontValley

Site Type

MA

E (o

C)

MM5-12kmMM5-4kmMM5-12km AdjMM5-4km AdjMOS

  The mean absolute error (MAE) of

temperature by geographic region for the period 23 Jan 2002 – 24 Mar 2002.

Ingredients for Success

• Operations During the Games– Clearly Defined Areas of Forecast

Responsibility During the Games• NWS: protection of life and property and

coordination with federal and state agencies• KSL: provide SLOC with detailed guidance for

weather critical events

* Forecasters Knew Local Mtn Weather* Each Component of Weather Team brought

unique strengths* Twice Daily Conference Calls Aided in

Accurate & Well-Coordinated Forecasts

Olympic region sites

Outdoor Venues

Soldier Hollow: Cross Country, Biathlon, Nordic Combined

Snowbasin Downhill, Combined, Super-G

Utah Olympic ParkBobsled, Luge, Skeleton,

Ski Jumping, Nordic Combined

Park CityAlpine GS, Snowboard GS

Snowboard Half Pipe

Deer ValleyAlpine Slalom, Aerials, Moguls

Locations of Weather Stations

Venue Forecasts

Soldier Hollow Cross Country/Biathlon Cross Country/Biathlon

CIRP

Deer Valley Aerial/Slalom/MogulsAerial/Slalom/Moguls

KSL

Park City Snowboard/Grand SlalomSnowboard/Grand Slalom

KSL

CIRP

Utah Olympic Park: Ski Jump/Bobsleigh/LugeSki Jump/Bobsleigh/Luge

CIRP

SnowBasin DownhillDownhill

D. Judd

KSL

Closing Ceremonies

CIRP

•Ceremonies Begin•6-7 PM Calm

• Balloons and Fireworks

•8:30-9:05 PM Calm

• Set-Up•4-5 PM Lightning

•Post Ceremony Cold Front•9:20 PM Gust to 21 mph•9:45 PM Gust to 41 mph

Forecast Results

• Overall, forecasts were excellent, according to customers.

• Superb data sets and wide range of models available to experienced forecasters who coordinated well.

• Had high resolution analyses/forecasts.• MM5/MOS forecasts for venues were quite

accurate.• Detailed, precise forecasts for

Opening/Closing Ceremonies were exceptionally good.

LEGACIES

• More observations and new forecast tools

• Better understanding of winter weather in complex terrain as a result of research & experience

• Will result in better forecasts in mountain regions well after the Olympics

• Model of multi-sector cooperation

Ongoing scientific issues

• QPF!!!– When, where, how much

• Highway surface modeling/guidance

• Air quality during cold pools/inversions

• For additional information: BAMS Feb 2002