WAGENINGEN UR - CCBCLIMATE CHANGE AND BIOSPHERE RESEARCH CEntre

•www.wau.wageningen-ur.nl/ccb/•from a misconception to a key thematic focus•from the past to the future•upcoming period of main opportunities for CCB Wag UR

Conceptual Framework II

Effects

Effects

Na

tura

l va

ria

tio

ns

Ex

plo

i tat

ion

era

Re

co

ve

ry e

ra?

Glo

bal

Ch

an

ge

Nut

irien

t C

ycle

Hyd

rolo

gy

Clim

ate

Te

rres

tria

lB

iosp

here

Enhancedeffects

Enhancedeffects

Te

rres

tria

lB

iosp

here

an

d

lan

d-u

se c

ha

nge

s

Reduced/temporisedeffects (Adaptation)

Positive effects(Mitigation)

Te

rres

tria

lB

iosp

here

an

d

lan

d-u

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ha

nge

s

CCB Research Themes

• Role of land cover in regional energy and water balance

• Formation and emission of Greenhouse Gases

• Effects on physiological processes in soils and plants

• Effects on ecosystem functioning and biodiversity

• Consequences for land use and water management

• Socio-economic aspects and policy analysis

• Advisory and consultancy in environmental and climate policies

Biosphere Atmosphere Interactions and the Regional Climate System

Pavel KabatCCB - Wageningen UR

Acknowledgements:IGBP - BAHC Scientific Steering Committee

GEWEX - ISLSCP International. Science PanelR. Hutjes, H. Dolman, P. Spiertz, H. ter Maat

“In the context of regional weather and climate,

landscape biospheric processes are as much a part

of the climate system as atmospheric processes”

LE = 0.65 R nLE = 0.25 R n

H = 0.3 R n

H = 0.65 R n

BorealForest

TemperateForest

Coupling Principles - Energy Balance LinkR n = LE + H + S

0.10 R g

R n = 0.87 R g

0.10 R g

R n = 0.87 R g

S = 0.03 R n

S = 0.07 R n

25 m10 m

PBL1500 m

PBL3000 m

CAPE + cloud activity characteristics

….excellent opportunity to integrate the important processes - physical, chemical and physical, chemical and biologicalbiological - that transport and transform material and energy across the land-atmosphere interface….

Land - Atmosphere Project

• off-spring of BAHC, IGAC, GCTE, GAIM• full and pro-active partnership with WCRP, story of a truly

complementary approach• learning from the past, capitalizing on successes of this

collaboration (GEWEX-BAHC, LBA, ...)• stepping stone for future joint programmes (mainly with WCRP

GEWEX)

Biota, Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate

• Biosphere/climate feedback proposed in 1987, in which marine phytoplankton emits a volatile sulfur-containing substance (DMS)

• DMS oxidized to sulfate aerosol particles that serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)

• Increased CCN ->more cloud droplets -> clouds brighter ->reduced amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth

• Earth cooling -> changing the living conditions for plankton, and thus their rate of DMS emissions

Biota, Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate

• feedback thought to be relevant mostly to the oceans, continental regions considered always to have high levels of CCN, so that clouds would never be “CCN-starved” and any additional CCN would have little effect

• recent work in the Amazon shows this assumption to be wrong: in the wet season with no detectable anthropogenic input, the balance of natural sources and sinks produces a CCN number concentration almost identical to marine values.

Biota, Aerosols, Clouds, and Climate

• By providing most of the CCN to the natural atmosphere, the biosphere has a strong influence on cloud radiative and microphysical properties, and thereby on both climate and the hydrological cycle.

• This natural regulation mechanism is now in the process of being overwhelmed by anthropogenic emissions

CCB Research Themes

• Formation and emission of Greenhouse Gases

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

Forest and woody biomass (IPCC)

Land use change and forestry (IPCC)

Biomass (Inventory)

Biomass+Harvest+Residues (Inventory)

Forest stand (Eddy flux)

Forest stand (Eddy flux)

Biomass+Soil (C pools)

Soil only (C pools)

Trees (Inventory)

Biomass (Inventory)

Biomass+Harvest+Residues (Inventory)

Biomass (Inventory)

Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model)

Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model)

Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model)

Terrestrial biosphere (Inverse model)

Carbon sink (Gt C a-1; positive sign: sink)

European Community

West and Central Europe

European Continent

(1)

(1)

(2)

(2)

(2)

(2)

(7)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(5)

(6)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(1) EEA/ETC Air Emissions 1999; (2) Kauppi and Tomppo 1993; (3) Martin 1998; (4) Martin et al. 1998; (5) Schulze et al. 2000; (6) Nabuurs et al. 1997; (7) Kauppi et al. 1992; (8) Bousquet et al. 1999; (9) Kaminski et al. 1999; (10) Rayner et al. 1997; (11) Ciais et al. 1995

Landuse classificationEmissions inventory

Attributes emissions:• industrial• urban• traffic• etc

Attributes agriculture:• area• volume• increment• carbon stock• carbon flux• etc...

Attributes forests:• area• volume• increment• carbon stock• carbon flux• etc...

Carbon flux map

Landuse inventory

GIS based methodology

CCB Research Themes

• Effects on physiological processes in soils and plants

Scenario Projection: 2000-2100

• When climate change is neglected (blue line) the coupled model produces a CO2 trajectory similar to the standard IS92a scenario as used in GCMs (black line).

• When climate-carbon cycle feedbacks are included (red line) we see much higher rates of CO2 increase and climate change.

• By 2100 the fully coupled model produces 970 ppmv and a global warming of 5.5K (c.f. 700 ppmv and 4K without climate-carbon cycle feedbacks).

CCB Research Themes

• Effects on ecosystem functioning and biodiversity

Climate, Water Quality & Ecosystems

Turbid water A stability landscape of ecosystems (source Scheffer, 2001)

• Aquatic Ecosystems , sometimes are in a seemingly steady state despite human pressures (lack of early warning signals)

• Gradual decline in ecosystem resilience can result in a sudden shift caused by an (climatic) event like a flood or a drought

• Also climate change (T) reduces ecosystem resilience

Clear water

CCB Research Themes

• Consequences for land use and water management

Learning to better cope with climate variability and change

ACCEPTABLERISK hydrology

water resourcesvulnerability

‘RANDOM’INTERNAL / EXTERNAL

DISTURBANCES

Climate

Land-useInternal

dynamics

Animal plagues

Humanpopulation

pressure

General IWRM Issues:

CCB Research Themes

• Socio-economic aspects and policy analysis

• Advisory and consultancy in environmental and climate policies

Central role of politics: (water)indicators: Water use in irrigation

Reflexive modernity

Water use in irrigation is a relevant indicator of the hydraulic mission's indicative trajectory

Political

5

Economic

4

Green

3

Industrial modernity

Hydraulic mission

2

Pre-modern

1

1st paradigm 2nd water management paradigm3rd

para.4th

para.5th

paradigm

Green movement in the North

1850 1900 1950 200019901980

Modernity inspired by the Enlightenment, science, capitalism and the belief that Nature could be controlled

The trajectory of industrial modernity

The South is still involved in its hydraulic mission

Trajectory of reflexive modernity in the North

Tony Allan,2000

Central role of politics: (climate)

Reflexive modernityPolitical

5

Economic

4

Green

3

Industrial modernity

Hydraulic mission

2

Pre-modern

11850 1900 1950 2000

19901980

PoliticalAwarenessClimate/

globalchange

&CO2

&T

Club Rome

IPCC I, IIRIO

IPCC III

RIO+10

Measures ?

CCB: challenges of integrated approach

• Multidisciplinarity and feedbacks as important as in-depth research

Increase radiation

Temperaturerise

Precipitation & Evaporation

SOIL PHYSICS

& RESOURCES

Land Cover Change

Change physico-chemical

water parameters

Water tablesOceans

WATERRESOURCES

AtmosphereCLIMATE PHYSICS

GREENHOUSE GASES

ECOSYSTEMFUNCTIONING

Groundwater&

River discharge

DEVELOPINGDEVELOPING COUNTRIES COUNTRIES

EUROPE, USAEUROPE, USA

• Floods/Droughts• Sea level rise

• Sea level rise

•Water Scarcity

• Water Quality

• Biodiversity• Health

CCB: challenges of integrated approach

•

• Synergy in socio-economic aspects and policy analysis, including environmental and climate policies

Current political barriers global change & climate issues:

• Spatial & Regional (sectoral) political power structures

• National power structures

• Barriers to sustainability ofcurrent practices in IRWM

How?

• International policy in relation to driversglobal change (emissions, land use, pop. Growth, etc), conventions,like CBD, UNFCCC, CCD, RAMSAR

•Actual measures at local level

CCB: a role to play….

• National: ICES KIS Klimaat

• National: a Netherlands Core Centre Global Change (ism VU-IvM, CKO, ICIS, e.a.

• National: VROM, LNV, EZ en V&W klimaatdimensie

• National: NWO

• Europees: EU 6de KP (CofE and IRPs)

• Mondiaal: IGBP, WCRP, IHDP maar ook NL-climate change assistance programmes, WB-programmes, IPCC, MA, ...