Vulnerability Assessments and Adaptation to

Climate Change

Consultations on the Relationship between Climate and human rights

Geneva Geneva

22 October 200822 October 2008

Festus Luboyera

UNFCCC Secretariat

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Outline

• The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

• Key commitments under the UNFCCC

• Urgent need for Adaptation

• Approaches to vulnerability and adaptation assessments

• Efforts to enhance work on vulnerability and adaptation issues

• National Adaptation Programmes of Actions (NAPAS

• Nairobi Work Programme

• Adaptation under the Bali Action Plan

• Financial resources

• Concluding Remarks

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The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

• 192 Parties – near universal membership

• The ultimate objective of the Convention: change is inevitable, but pace and intensity must be managed so that people and ecosystems can adapt.

• Principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities: developed countries must take the lead

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Key commitments under the UNFCCC

• All Parties shall “Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change; develop and elaborate appropriate and integrated plans for coastal zone management, water resources and agriculture, and for the protection and rehabilitation of areas, particularly in Africa, affected by drought and desertification, as well as floods.”

– Article 4.1 (e)

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Key commitments under the UNFCCC

All Parties shall “Take climate change considerations into account, to the extent feasible, in their relevant social, economic and environmental policies and actions, and employ appropriate methods, for example impact assessments, formulated and determined nationally, with a view to minimizing adverse effects on the economy, on public health and on the quality of the environment, of projects or measures undertaken by them to mitigate or adapt to climate change.”

– Article 4.1 (f)

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Key commitments under the UNFCCC

“The developed country Parties … shall also assist the developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to those adverse effects.”

- Article 4.4

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Key commitments under the UNFCCC

“The Parties shall take full account of the specific needs and special situations of the least developed countries in their actions with regard to funding and transfer of technology.”

– Article 4.9

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Urgent need for Adaptation

Adaptation: coping with climatic change – taking measures to reduce the negative effects, or exploit the positive ones, by making appropriate adjustments.

• Adaptation is inevitable

• Developing countries will be most affected.

• Strong adaptation policies and support need to be in place very soon

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TWO APPROACHES TO VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENTS

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Efforts to enhance work on vulnerability and adaptation issues

• Support for Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation assessment, as part of National Communications

• Further implementation of actions including on data and modelling, vulnerability and adaptation assessment and implementation under the Buenos Aires Programme of work on adaptation (2004)

• Addressing special needs of LDCs through the NAPAs

• Science and technical advice on adaptation: Nairobi Work Programme (adopted at COP 12 in Nairobi in 2006)

• Enhanced Action on adaptation under the Bali action Plan (2007)

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National Adaptation Programmes of Actions (NAPAS)

• Rationale for NAPA rests on low adaptive capacity of LDCs

• Serves as mechanism for assessment and communication of urgent and immediate adaptation needs in LDCs

• Steps include information synthesis, assessment of vulnerability to climate variability and extreme events and potential risk areas, identification of key adaptation measures, selection of prioritized set of activities.

• 32 NAPAs submitted thus far (out of 48 LDC Parties)

• Rough estimate of total cost of NAPA implementation in all 48 Parties - around US$1 billion

• USD 163 million pledged as of COP 13

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Nairobi Work Programme

Technologies for adaptationTechnologies for adaptation

Socio-economic information

Socio-economic information

Adaptation planning& practices

Adaptation planning& practices

ResearchResearch

Economicdiversification

Economicdiversification

Assist all Parties,in particular developing countries,

including LDCsand SIDS, to:

Improve their understanding of climate change impacts and vulnerability

Increase their ability to make informed decisions on how to adapt successfully

Methods & toolsMethods & tools

Data & observationsData & observations

Modelling, scenarios& downscaling

Modelling, scenarios& downscaling

Risks & extreme events

Risks & extreme events

Areas of work

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Nairobi Work ProgrammeUpscaling stakeholder engagement

Workshops& expert meetings

withrecommendations

Views of

Parties on

gaps &

needs

Calls for Action

120 organizationsactive in the

NWP withfocal points

Action Pledges

Parties,organizations,

experts,civil society,

privatesector

active inadaptation

‘Supply’ of adaptation activities

‘Demand’ for adaptation activities

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Adaptation under the Bali Action Plan

Discussions in Accra (August 2008)

• National planning and adaptation

• Streamlining and scaling up financial and technical support

• Enhancing knowledge sharing

• Institutional frameworks

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Financial resources• Improving means and accessibility to the adaptation

financing –improved livelihoods

• Need to generate significant financial and technological support to enable meaningful action by developing countries.

• The GEF funding is not enough

• Current carbon market is insufficient and doesn’t guarantee geographical distribution

• UNFCCC report (2007)indicates that Investment and financial flows needed for adaptation globally are likely to be tens of billions of dollars per year several decades from now

• How could the carbon market structure be expanded?

• Can other mechanisms be developed?

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The Bali Action Plan

Shared vision

• Emission reductions• Resilience/reduced vulnerability

Action by developed countries

• On mitigation

• On adaptation

Action by developed countries

• On mitigation

• On adaptation

Action by developing countries

• On mitigation

• On adaptation

Action by developing countries

• On mitigation

• On adaptation

Catalytic role of the UNFCCCCatalytic role of the UNFCCC

Outputto supportElements of support

Enabling elements

Elements of support

Enabling elements

Inputto support

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Concluding Remarks• The convention process has provided for;

– the assessments of vulnerability and adapation options for sectors and countries that are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change

– possible funding abeit not adequate at the moment

– development of national policy options for adaptation

• The Convention works to ensure food and health security as well sustainable development

• Copenhagen 2009 needs to ensure that all stakeholders participate in the development of adaptation policies and green economic growth

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Thank You