Post on 01-Apr-2020
VoIP in South and Eastern Europe:Strategy and Policy Considerations
Anna RiedelThe views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU. Anna Riedel can be contacted at Anna.Riedel@itu.int or AnnaRiedel@hotmail.com.
This presentation was held in the framework of the ITU New Initiatives Programme project “The Future of Voice”
26 June 2006, ITU Headquarters, Geneva, Switzerland
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Market Overview SEE
• Between 2003-2005 telco markets grew by ~ 11% (EU 15 3.4%)
• Strongest growth seen in Bulgaria (16.4% p.a.) and Romania (15.9% p.a.)
• Nevertheless total market value remains behind that in Western Europe
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Mobile Markets in Eastern Europe
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%Moldavia Belarus
Albania, SerbiaBosniaRomaniaUkraine
Macedonia Latvia, BulgariaCroatia, Poland
Czech Republic
Lithuania
Estonia
Montenegro
Slovenia, HungaryRussia
Slovakia
Per
cent
of P
opul
atio
n
Market maturity stage Embryonic Early stage Developing Advanced Mature
Turkey
Source: A. D. Little
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Romania in 2005
Population:22,329,977
GDP:Total: € 77.6 bn
€ 3,589 per capita(4.1 % yoy growth)
Telecom service market:€ 2.71 bn
(23.3% yoy growth)
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Market data (mobile & fixed)
Fixed and Mobile Penetration rates
010203040506070
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
in %
Fixed line penetration rate Mobile peenetration rate
Aggregatedrevenues of four
main mobile players up 33% in
2005
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Internet
0
25
50
75
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Internet penetration rate % number of w eekly internet users (thou)
Market data II (Internet)
+ 327%
Source: http://rbd.doingbusiness.ro/
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Market data III (Internet)
Narrow- vs. Broadband
0
500
1000
1500
2003 30.06.2004 2004 30.06.2005
thou
sand
s
number of narrowband connections Number of broadband subscribers
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Regulatory Overview• 1st of January 2003 fixed-line telephony market was
liberalized and opened to private competition (all platforms)
• Has implemented the authorization directive given by the EU 2003 package
• no legal entry barriers (no charge for entry license, numbering, etc.)
• 3 GSM providers and one CDMA 2000 operator (450 MHz); two 3G licenses and two more to come
• National Regulatory Authority for Communications (ANRC) has authorized more than 2,600 companies to offer electronic communications services in 2005
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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VoIP regulation
Official position on VoIP Date of liberalization Licensing requirements
• the principle of technological neutrality• considered telephony services if they fall within the scope of the definition of the publicly available telephony services• ANRC is currently reviewing its position on other types of VoIP services
• Jan. 1, 2003• Article 2, par (1) (c) of Law No. 304/2003 on the universal service and users’rights relating to electronic communications networks and services
• General authorization with notification
• Max. 0.5% of annual revenue
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Recent Developments1. Atlas Telecom will deliver residential VoIP over a
fixed-wireless network using DECT* cordless technology
• Is uses the SIP-based BroadWorks VoIP application platform in tandem with DECT wireless nodes and cordless phones
• The bases will be posted on lamp posts with 200m signal each (4thou per city)
2. Combridge SRL launched a new telecom brand: Eufonika
• It uses the RomTelecom network and customers have to access a free number in order to get connected to the VoIP offer
3. Orange launches first 3G offer in Bucharest* Digital Enhanced Cordless Telecommunications
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Bulgaria in 2005
Population: 7,761,000
GDP:Total: € 21.4 billion€ 2,779 per capita(5.2% yoy growth)
Telecom service market:1.2 bn
(10.9% yoy growth)
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Market Data
ITC Market Overview
0
20
40
60
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
per 1
00 p
eopl
e
Telephone main lines Mobile subscribers
Internet users Broadband subscriber lines
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Regulatory Overview
• Has completely privatized the incumbent operator (except golden share) by June 2004
• BTC still holds 97% market share• Individual licenses for fixed telephony
needed (network or carrier)• Communications Regulations Commission
(CRC) has licensed 3 2G and one analogue (RTC) and 658 local cable operator
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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VoIP regulation
Official position on VoIP Date of liberalization Licensing requirements
•No official position, if VoIP services do not meet the QoS parameters for fixed voice telephony service•they are not allowed to apply for a voice license with rights to interconnect under reference connection offer (RIO)
• not regulated• (Art. 3, all. 2 of Regulation No. 12 of May 5, 2004 for fixed voice telephony)
•No licensing/ authorization regime for VoIP as long as minimum QoSrequirements for voice telephony are not met•otherwise a fixed voice telephony license is required
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Recent Developments 1. Bulgarian triple play provider CableTel
agreed to buy majority stake in Evrotur Sat TV (local key competitor)
2. Internet telephony provider Ekstel received license to provide street phone services
3. VoIP connecting Bulgarian Sea central administration of Port Infrastructure State Enterprise through a VoIP information technology system
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Croatia in 2005
Population: 4,551,000
GDP:Total: € 28.07 bn€ 6,079 per capita(4.3% yoy growth)
Telecom service € 1.5 bn (2004)
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Market Data
Penetration rates in %
01020304050607080
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Fixed line Mobile Internet
0.04 0.10 0.210.41 0.69
1.08
Broadbandsubscriber linesper 100 people
Source 2005: GI
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Regulatory Overview
• Liberalized from Jan 2003• Incumbent is held by Deutsche Telekom
(51%)• Various cable operators licensed and 3
2G operators (active)
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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VoIP regulation
Official position on VoIP Date of liberalization Licensing requirements
• The right to provide VoIP telecommunications services is acquired by a legal or natural person by submitting a written notification to the Agency
• June 30, 1999
• General authorization with notification• € 670 one-off fee plus 0.1% of annual revenue
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Recent Developments1. Slovenia's national telco Telekom Slovenije
wants to acquire one of the largest Internet service providers Vodatel while T-HrvatskiTelekom (incumbent) is in talks on acquiring Iskon Internet
2. Italy-based systems integrator Essentia will distribute broadband solutions (G6), including VoIP in Croatia
3. WiMAX Telecom Group’s bid for Zagreb region got accepted (will start wireless broadband incl. VoIP this year)
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Turkey
Population:70,413,958
GDP (2004):Total: € 242.598 bnper capita € 3,393
Telecom service market:€ 8.4 bn (2004)
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Market Data
ICT Market Overview
0
20
40
60
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Pene
trat
ion
Telephone main lines (per 100 people) Mobile subscribers (per 100 people)Internet users (per 100 people) Broadband subscriber lines (per 100 people)
Source: ITU/ 2005 EIU est./ 2006 forecast
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Regulatory Overview
• the Ministry of Transportation is responsible for operational activities of Turk Telekom (45% state owned)
• Independent NRA: Telecommunications Authority
• Fixed wholly liberalized in July 2005• Neither call termination nor call origination
model is used for interconnection agreem. between ISP and incumbent
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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VoIP regulation
Official position on VoIP Date of liberalization Licensing requirements
• No specific position on VoIP • VoIP requires a long distance telephony service license
• Jan. 1, 2004
• Individual license•fee: same as long distance tel. plus 0.5% of net annual sales
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Recent Developments
1. French B3G Telecom offers white label Broadband Telephony Services in Turkey
2. Damaka announced operator launch with Mortel Telecom
3. Teletek Telekom, Turkeys leading IP carrier, integrates next gen SIP service architecture
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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ObligationsUniv.
ServicesUSO cost compens.
USO elig.for mob.
operators
QoSmeasure
Yes**
Yes
Yes**
Yes**
Yes Yes Yes
Yes Yes No
Yes Yes* Yes
Yes (No: NA, DIS) Yes* No
NA: Network Access DIS: Directory Inquiry Service* Not in practice ** not yet published
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Considerations
Mobile vs. Fixed
0
20
40
60
80
100
RO BG HR TR
in %
Mobile Jan 2005 Mobile Nov 2005 Fixed Nov 2005
Mobile penetration EU average
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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ConsiderationsWhat is the future of voice in SEE?
Difficult to foreseeDepends also on EU accessionsVery tight regulation with VoIP seen as substitution for fixed => many obligations, higher market barriers to entry, less competitionOr: laisser-faire => QoS, interconnection, USOs, numbering?Esp. in SEE: low broadband penetration => mobile VoIP (3G or WiMAX)NRAs have to focus on universal access
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Considerations
1. Universal access approach2. Regulatory holidays in order to give
incumbent the chance to deploy the infrastructure, therefore broadband and possibility for VoIP
26 June 2006 Anna.Riedel@itu.intannariedel@hotmail.com
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Thank you very much for your attention.Contact:
Anna.Riedel@itu.intAnnaRiedel@hotmail.com
This presentation was held in the framework of the ITU New Initiatives Programme project
“The Future of Voice”