VISTAS Meteorological Modeling 2002 Simulation May 25, 2004 National RPO Modeling Meeting

VISTAS Meteorological VISTAS Meteorological ModelingModeling

2002 Simulation2002 Simulation

May 25, 2004May 25, 2004

National RPO Modeling MeetingNational RPO Modeling Meeting

Denver, CODenver, CO

George BridgersGeorge Bridgers

North Carolina Division of Air QualityNorth Carolina Division of Air Quality

IntroductionIntroduction• MM5 v3.6.1+ (Sea Ice Differences Only)MM5 v3.6.1+ (Sea Ice Differences Only)

• MM5 v3.6.2 PreprocessorsMM5 v3.6.2 Preprocessors• Reisner 1 w/ Mixed Ice PhysicsReisner 1 w/ Mixed Ice Physics• Kain-Fritsch 2 Cumulus ParameterizationKain-Fritsch 2 Cumulus Parameterization• ACM Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) ModelACM Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) Model• Pleim-Xiu Land Surface Model LSM (EPA’s MPP Pleim-Xiu Land Surface Model LSM (EPA’s MPP

version)version)– independent segments (cold start)-no INTERPPXindependent segments (cold start)-no INTERPPX

INTERPPXINTERPPX is used to initialize soil moisture, canopy is used to initialize soil moisture, canopy moisture, and soil temperature from a previous run when moisture, and soil temperature from a previous run when simulation time periods overlap.simulation time periods overlap.

– Using INTERPPX resulted in a significant wintertime cold bias Using INTERPPX resulted in a significant wintertime cold bias in sensitivity testing.in sensitivity testing.

Introduction (cont.)Introduction (cont.)

• MM5 executed in 5.5 day MM5 executed in 5.5 day segmentssegments

• 76 total segments76 total segments• 00Z Dec 17, 2001 start00Z Dec 17, 2001 start

• dec17_01 date tagdec17_01 date tag• 12Z Jan 1, 2003 finish12Z Jan 1, 2003 finish

• Last hour of dec27_02 segmentLast hour of dec27_02 segment

Evaluation ProceduresEvaluation Procedures• Full suite of evaluation products Full suite of evaluation products

available for each segmentavailable for each segment• Surface ProductsSurface Products

SpatialSpatial Time seriesTime series CombinationCombination

• Aloft ProductsAloft Products SpatialSpatial SoundingSounding ProfilerProfiler

• Statistical ProductsStatistical Products Surface time seriesSurface time series Aloft time seriesAloft time series TablesTables

Evaluation ProceduresEvaluation Procedures

• Need to Summarize ResultsNeed to Summarize Results• Monthly ProductsMonthly Products

• Statistical TablesStatistical Tables• Spatial Summary PlotsSpatial Summary Plots• ““Bakergrams” (annual)Bakergrams” (annual)• ““Bakergrams” (monthly)Bakergrams” (monthly)• Spatial Statistical PlotsSpatial Statistical Plots

Statistical ChartsStatistical Charts

1.5m Temperature (C) Bias

-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1

s 12 km

Monthly VISTAS StatisticsMonthly VISTAS Statistics

1.5m Tempe rature (C) Bias

djf* m am jja son

s 12km

Seasonal VISTAS StatisticsSeasonal VISTAS Statistics

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36kmDay/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

-1.4-1.2

-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2

00.20.40.6

Qv (g/kg) Bias

s 12 km

Qv (g/kg) Bias)

djf* mam jja son

s 12 km

Qv (g/kg) Bias

RH (%) Bias

-6-5-4-3-2-101234

s 12 km

Rh (%) Bias

-4.00-3.50-3.00-2.50-2.00-1.50-1.00-0.500.000.501.00

djf* mam jja son

s 12 km

RH (%) Bias

WS reg (m/s) Bias

0.20.3

0.40.5

0.60.7

s 12 km

WS reg (m/s) Bias

djf* mam jja son

s 12 km

WS reg (m/s) Bias

0.20.4

0.60.8

WS no calm (m/s) Bias

s 12 km

djf* mam jja son

s 12 km

-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1

00.10.20.3

-0.4-0.3

-0.2-0.1

0.20.3

0.40.5

WS minicalm (m/s) Bias

s 12 km

0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.45

djf* mam jja son

s 12 km

CLD (%) Bias

s 12 km

CLD (%) Bias

-10.00

djf* mam jja son

s 12 km

CLD (%) Bias

CLD2 (%) Bias

-6-4-202468

101214

s 12 km

CLD2 (%) Bias

djf* mam jja son

s 12 km

CLD2 (%) Bias

Day/night VISTAS Statistics, 36kmDay/night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

CLD2 (%) Bias

Day/night VISTAS Statistics, 12kmDay/night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

WDIR dbias

ias 12 km

WDIR dbias

djf* mam jja son

ias 12 km

Annual BakergramsAnnual Bakergrams

Monthly BakergramsMonthly Bakergrams

Spatial PlotsSpatial Plots

Performance SummaryPerformance Summary

• Modeling Results Are as ExpectedModeling Results Are as Expected• Cold Bias in WinterCold Bias in Winter

• Soil initialization procedure needs Soil initialization procedure needs improvement (beyond scope of project)improvement (beyond scope of project)

• 10-day soil time scale too long?10-day soil time scale too long?• Precip amounts in summer overdone in SE USPrecip amounts in summer overdone in SE US• Best performance in VISTAS region for most Best performance in VISTAS region for most

variables… variables… • Performance is quite good compared with Performance is quite good compared with

other modeling exercisesother modeling exercises• Characteristics of the 36km and 12km Characteristics of the 36km and 12km

domains are generally similar, but interesting domains are generally similar, but interesting differencesdifferences

What’s Next What’s Next For VISTAS’ Meteorological For VISTAS’ Meteorological

TeamTeam• Survey VISTAS states regarding:Survey VISTAS states regarding:

• Performance zones evaluationPerformance zones evaluation• What are other RPO’s doing?What are other RPO’s doing?• Awaiting results of CART analysisAwaiting results of CART analysis

• State by State (VISTAS) evaluation State by State (VISTAS) evaluation • To support PM2.5 SIP workTo support PM2.5 SIP work

• Formatting files for CALMET/CALPUFFFormatting files for CALMET/CALPUFF• To support state permit modelingTo support state permit modeling

• Transfers available… Want it? Need 1.2 TB Transfers available… Want it? Need 1.2 TB storagestorage

• 2003 episodic modeling ?2003 episodic modeling ?• Episodes could be identified by CART analysisEpisodes could be identified by CART analysis

Contact InformationContact Information

• http://vistas-sesarm.org/http://vistas-sesarm.org/• http://www.baronams.com/projects/http://www.baronams.com/projects/

VISTAS/VISTAS/

Michael.Abraczinskas@ncmail.netMichael.Abraczinskas@ncmail.net

919-715-3743919-715-3743

George.Bridgers@ncmail.netGeorge.Bridgers@ncmail.net

919-715-6287 919-715-6287

Mammoth CaveMammoth CaveTime SeriesTime Series

ShenandoahShenandoahTime SeriesTime Series

VISTAS Meteorological Modeling 2002 Simulation May 25, 2004 National RPO Modeling Meeting

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