Vision 2050: Sustainable Transport in

Asia and the Pacific

Better Air Quality Conference 2012

Lloyd Wright Lwright@adb.org

Hong Kong 5 December 2012

Asia-Pacific transport in 2050

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge." Lao Tzu, philosopher, 6th century BC

Part I. ADB’s Sustainable Transport Initiative

Sustainable Transport Initiative

Adopted in 2010 to transform ADB’s transport lending

Priority areas 1. Urban transport

2. Transport and climate

change

3. Logistics and cross-border transport

4. Road safety and social sustainability

ADB’s 2020 targets

2000-2009

Roads Rail Water Air Urban

2020

Roads Rail Water Air Urban

78% road

30% urban

42% road

1% urban 17% rail

25% rail

Percent of transport-sector loan portfolio

Project pipeline: Non-motorized transport

1. Davao, Philippines 2. Delhi National Capital

Region, India

3. Dhaka, Bangladesh

4. Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam

5. Kathmandu, Nepal

6. Medan, Indonesia

7. Pasig City, Philippines

8. Vientiane, Lao PDR

Project pipeline: Urban rail

1. Astana, Kazakhstan (LRT)

2. Bangalore, India (Metro)

3. Ha Noi, Viet Nam (Metro)

4. Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam

(Metro)

5. Tbilisi, Georgia (Metro)

6. Baku, Azerbaijan (Metro)

8

Project pipeline: Bus Rapid Transit

1. Davao, Philippines 2. Dhaka, Bangladesh

3. Jiangxi Fuzhou, PRC

4. Jiangxi Ji’an, PRC

5. Lanzhou, PRC

6. Ulaanbaatar,

Mongolia

7. Yichang, PRC

Lanzhou BRT: Opening in 2013

Rio+20 commitment

US$ 175 billion

Amount committed to transport by the 8 major multi-lateral development banks over the next 10 years

Part II. Global Transport Intelligence Initiative

Transport Data Outlook for Asia and the Pacific

Collect core transport data figures for Asia and the Pacific

Provide projections to 2050

Coordinate with data from other world regions

Projections developed under

ADB’s Sustainable Fuel

Partnership

Sustainable transport projections to 2050

Core project partners

Asian Development Bank

International Energy

Agency

Oxford University

With funding from the Government of Austria

Leveraging value for sustainable transport

Health Credits Fuel Security Credits Carbon Credits

Land Value Capture

Fuel Levies Parking Levies Congestion Pricing

Road Safety Credits

Funding Sustainable Transport

Energy security as a global

concern…and an opportunity

Fuel Security Credits

Developing Nation Low levels of fixed

infrastructure Low-cost fuel reductions

Developed Nation High levels of fixed

infrastructure High-cost fuel reduction

Global fuel price reduction / price

volatility reduction

Investment

Business-as-usual projections to 2050

Source: ADB and IEA, 2011

Cars and motorcycles

Percentage of passenger-kilometers in Asia and the Pacific

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2020

2030 2040

2050

Public transport, walking and cycling

Cars and motorcycles

Mo

de

sh

are

(p

-km

)

Asia and Pacific population projections

City population size

Number of Cities

2010 2025 2050

Less than 500,000 3,692 5,236 6,878

500,000 to 1 million 203 225 282

1 million to 5 million 179 246 303

5 million to 10 million 17 22 30

Over 10 million 8 13 23

Source: UNESA, 2010

2030 2050

Low High Low High

1. Transit-oriented

development 1.18% 4.12% 2.65% 9.07%

2. Telemobility 0.24% 1.38% 0.42% 3.14%

Avoid interventions: Cumulative oil reduction savings from baseline

2030 2050

Moderate Progressive Moderate Progressive

1. Fuel Levy 1.59% 4.61% 2.42% 7.04%

2. Parking Levy 0.52% 2.06% 0.68% 2.38%

3. Bus Rapid Transit 0.39% 1.56% 1.12% 4.49%

4. Non-Motorized Vehicles 0.45% 0.87% 1.13% 2.28%

5. Elevated Urban Rail 0.25% 0.83% 0.64% 2.23%

6. Congestion Pricing 0.26% 0.70% 0.33% 0.92%

7. Underground Metro 0.14% 0.62% 0.26% 1.56%

8. Pedestrian Facilities 0.22% 0.43% 0.55% 1.132%

9. High-Speed Rail 0.11% 0.25% 0.16% 0.40%

Shift interventions: Cumulative oil reduction savings from baseline

2030 2050

Moderate Progressive Moderate Progressive

1. Freight Efficiency 5.93% 7.19% 6.95% 11.40%

2. Fuel Economy Standards 0.91% 3.22% 4.73% 9.36%

3. Electric Vehicles 1.15% 2.31% 2.86% 5.71%

4. Biomethane Vehicles 0.62% 1.23% 1.54% 3.09%

5. Hybrid Vehicles 0.22% 0.44% 0.53% 1.06%

6. Biofuel Vehicles 0.11% 0.21% 0.11% 0.22%

Improve interventions: Cumulative oil reduction savings from baseline

2030 2050

Moderate Progressive Moderate Progressive

1. Avoid-Shift-Improve

Package 12.93% 23.69% 22.08% 41.48%

2. Improve Package 6.38% 13.85% 11.79% 22.02%

3. Shift Package 2.24% 6.80% 4.39% 12.23%

4. Avoid Package 1.42% 5.43% 3.06% 11.86%

Packaged interventions: Cumulative oil reduction savings from baseline

Avoid Shift Improve + +

Conclusion from analysis

By 2050, sustainable transport interventions

can reduce annual transport oil consumption in Asia by up to 41% and

reduce global oil consumption by 11%

through technologies that are commercially viable

today

Expenditures to 2050 in Asia and the Pacific 2050

Category Amount (US$)

Infrastructure $59 trillion

Vehicles $162 trillion

Fuels $52 trillion

Operations & maintenance

$3 trillion

Total $276 trillion

Source: ADB and IEA, 2011

Part III. Communicating and using the data

Tipping points: Bus Rapid Transit

New York bus lane Paris bus lane

Quito Leeds

Bogota TransMilenio Brisbane

Rouen

1963

Curitiba

1974 1996 2000

2012 Approximately 135 systems world-wide

2005 Approximately 46 systems world-wide

Sao Paulo Goiania

Pittsburgh

1975

Tipping points: Bicycle sharing systems

Amsterdam White Bike

Copenhagen City Bike

Paris Veleb

1965

La Rochelle Yellow Bike

1974 1995 2005

Lyon Velo’v

2012 Approximately 420 systems world-wide

2009 Approximately 78 systems world-wide

Tipping the market

2000 Approximately 10 systems

2012 Approximately 135 systems world-wide

1. Early adopters

2. Seed funding support

3. Quality delivery

4. Communicating the results

5. Right place at the right time (luck) Inflection point

Future tipping point?: Greenways

Seoul

Guangzhou

During the time we are in this session…

36,000 cell phones were sold in the Asia-Pacific

During this session…

4,900 persons moved from a rural area to an urban area in the Asia-Pacific

During this session… 3,800 cars and motorcycles were

sold in the Asia-Pacifc

Thank you Lwright@adb.org

2050: Which vision do we want?