Post on 30-May-2018
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all progress depends on the
unreasonable man
George Bernard Shaw
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A crisis is a terrible thing to
waste.
Paul Romer
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There is no reason for anyThere is no reason for anyindividuals to have a computerindividuals to have a computerin their home in their home
-Ken Olsen, President, Chairman and-Ken Olsen, President, Chairman andFounder of DEC, 1977Founder of DEC, 1977
E x c u
s e : M i
s s i n g
A p p l i
c a t i o n s
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Heavier-than-air flyingHeavier-than-air flyingmachines are impossible machines are impossible
-Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society 1895-Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society 1895
P r o b
l e m : U
n d e r s t a n
d i n g o
f
P h y s
i c s
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Airplanes are interesting toysAirplanes are interesting toysbut of no military value but of no military value
-Marshall Ferdinand Foch,-Marshall Ferdinand Foch,Professor of Strategy,Professor of Strategy,Ecole Superiure de GuerreEcole Superiure de Guerre
P r o b l e
m : T u n
n e l
V i s i o n
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8
Forecasting
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9
It is the mark of an educatedperson to look for precision only
as far as the nature of thesubject allows.
Aristotle
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1010
oil price forecasts (1985-2005)
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 0
Data/Source: World Oil Prices (current $ / Barrel)- EIA Office of Integration Analysis and Forecasting
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Actual
Actual
Actual Actual
Actual
Actual
Actual
10-yrForecast
Error
5-yr
ForecastError
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1111
gas price forecasts (1985-2005)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 0
Data/Source: Natural Gas Wellhead Prices (current $ /1000cf) - EIA Office of Integration Analysis and Forecasting
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
ActualActual
Actual Actual
ActualActual
Actual
10-yrForecast
Error
5-yr
ForecastError
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1212
coal price forecasts (1985-2005)
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1 9 8 5
1 9 9 0
1 9 9 5
2 0 0 0
Data/Source: Coal Prices to Elec. Generating Plants (current $ /million btu) - EIA Office of Integration Analysis and Forecasting
Actual
Actual
Actual
Actual
ActualActual
Actual
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
Forecast Forecast
Forecast
Forecast
10-yrForecast
Error
5-yr
ForecastError
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13
the US market for mobile subscribers
McKinsey for AT&T(1980 => 2000)
Actual
109M
Forecast
0.9M
Source: American Heritage Magazine - http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/magazine/it/2007/3/2007_3_8.shtml
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14
yesterdays technology, tomorrows forecast
1980s phone The actual market
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15
quantitative modeling flaws
Models with given inputs are precise but inaccurate
low standard deviation, but with high standard error
input the measurable, ignore the immeasurable Black Swans
obscured embedded assumptions
Food price controversy
World Bank study 75% of price rise due to biofuels
USDA notes only 3% of total price change
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8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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Redefining swans
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black swan solutions ?
Technology shocks are classic BlackSwans!
Strategy: More at bats; shots ongoal
Source: Nassim Nicholas Taleb author of The Black Swan
rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective
(though not prospective) predictability
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what if
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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20
Cement that sequesters CO2, instead of emitting it!
Calera
more coal plants meant cleaner air
cement was carbon negative & free
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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222222
Transonic
2X efficient engines cutting world oil consumption in half
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Battery Black Swan?
probably the only battery worth working on
for both cars & wind/solar storagealong with other Black Swans
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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24
relevant scale solutions for
oil
coal
materials
(efficiency of oil & coal use)
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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But how do we evaluate solutions?
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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relevant cost relevant scale
relevant adoption
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the chindia testonly scalable if competitive unsubsidized
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1990: Chindia 13% of CO2
emissions
2005: Chindia 23% of CO 2 emissions
2030: Chindia 34% of CO 2 emissions
EIA
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China and India togetheraccount for 79 percent of theprojected increase in world coal
consumption from 2005 to2030
EIA
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Unsubsidized market competitiveness?
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the scaling modelbrute force or exponential, distributed
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key criteria
Trajectory: What is or What Can Be
Cost Trajectory
Scalability Trajectory
Adoption Risk
Capital Formation Optionality
Carbon Reduction Capacity
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cost and carbon trajectory
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Cost trajectory:
Undesirable (hydrogen fuel cell?)
Subsidy/Support Needed
C o s
t
Fossil Fuel Cost
Fossil + Carbon Cost
Time
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cost: driving down the cost curve
Source: The Carbon Productivity Challenge, McKinsey Original from UC Berkely Energy Resource Group, Navigant Consulting
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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
C o s t
( N o r m a
l i z e d
)
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
C o s t
( N o r m a
l i z e d
)
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
C o s t
( N o r m a
l i z e d
)
cost: not all technology curves are the same
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
C o s t
( N o r m a
l i z e d
)Cheapest now does not meanCheapest now does not mean
cheapest later!cheapest later!
Trajectory Matters!Trajectory Matters! Solar PV
WindCoal
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37
declining technology cost
Crystalline Silicon
Amorphous Silicon
Thin-Film
Thin-Film Multi-Junction
Generations of Solar Photovoltaics
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but tech cost decline isnt enough
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
C o s t
( N o r m a
l i z e d
)
Construction CostInputs (Feedstock/Land)
Technology Cost
Total Cost
Total cost decline is based on relativeTotal cost decline is based on relativeproportion of cost typesproportion of cost types
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Carbon trajectory:
Undesirable (natural gas?)
C a r
b o n
E m
i s s i o n s
T r a j e c
t o r y
Desired Goal(80% below fossil?)
Time
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Scalability: Land is not (remotely) a constraint
world electricity demand
(18,000 TWh/y)
can be produced from
300 x 300 km
=0.23% of all deserts
distributed over 10 000 sites
3000 km
Source: Gerhard Knies, CSP 2008
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area requirements to power the USA
(150 km) 2 of Nevada coveredwith 15% efficientsolar cells couldprovide the USAwith electricity
Source: J.A. Turner, Science 285 1999, p. 687.
as much landwith 30% efficientturbines
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the adoption riskfinancial, consumer acceptance, market entry
d ti i k $2 500
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adoption risk - $2,500 nano
Internal combustion engineInternal combustion engineor or
Hydrogen / electric?Hydrogen / electric?
d ti i k U S ill l
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adoption risk: U.S. mill closures
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optionality
optionality: biofuels feedstocks & pathways
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Pyrolisis
optionality: biofuels feedstocks & pathways
MixalcoProcess
GlycerinNaturalOils BioDiesel (FAME or FAEE)
Methanol/Ethanol
GasificationSyngas
Fermentation Ethanol/Butanol
BTL Diesel
Mixed HigherAlcohol
MethaneMicrobialcultures
Dimethylfuran
Gasoline, Diesel,Hydrocarbons
Ethanol, Butanol,Renewable PetroleumFermDiesel
Sugars/Starch
Fermentation
BiogasolineETG via catalysis
Biomass
Cellulose/Hemicellulose
Acid or EnzymeHydrolysis
SaccharificationEthanol
Algae + Sunlight CO2
CellMass
Hydrocracking
WasteFischer-Tropspch
catalysis
BioDiesel (FAME or FAEE)
Catalytic Conversion
ButanolDiesel
Transesterification
Catalysis and Aqueous phase Reforming
Fermentation
Catalytic Conversion Ethanol
Biocrude
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capital formation
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Short Innovation Cycles (3-5 years)
Short investor return cycles
Mitigate technical & market risk cheaply
Unsubsidized market competition
Private money will flow toPrivate money will flow to
ventures that return investment inventures that return investment in3-5 year cycles!3-5 year cycles!
capital formation
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carbon reduction capacity
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
I n d e x
( 2 0 0 8 =
1 )
Carbon Productivity Growth Required =5.6%/yr
World GDP Growth =3.1%/yr
Source: The Carbon Productivity Challenge, McKinsey Original GDP projection from Global Insight through 2037
Less reduction now, butLess reduction now, butgreater capacity togreater capacity torespond in the future?respond in the future?
C a r
b o n
P r o d u c t
i v i t y =
G D P /
E m
i s s i o n s
W o r
l d G D P G r o w t h
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
I n d e x
( 2 0 0 8 =
1 )
Emission decrease to 20GT CO 2e by 2050= -2.4%/yr
carbon reduction capacity: 10X increase in carbon productivity!
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0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2008 2013 2018 2023 2028
I n d e x
( 2 0 0 8 =
1 )
Growth Offers the Greatest Carbon Reduction Opportunity !
carbon reduction capacity is key
Improvement of current stockReplacement of old stock
Growth stock
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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goal:cost, carbon reduction capacity, carbon &scaling trajectory, capital formation, lowadoption risk, & optionality
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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But be wary of irrational ideas.
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irrational ideas: toilet paper
I propose a limitation be put on how many sqares[sic] of toilet paper can be used in any one sitting.Now, I don't want to rob any law-abiding American of
his or her God-given rights, but I think we are anindustrious enough people that we can make it workwith only one square per restroom visit, except, of course, on those pesky occasions where 2 to 3 couldbe required.
- Sheryl Crow
Source - http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2007/04/singer_turned_a.html
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irrational ideas: green bikinis
Source - http://www.alternativeconsumer.com/2008/07/29/eco-bikini-from-niksters/
l d
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irrational ideas: eat kangaroos, not cows!
Source http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSSYD8867720080808
Farming kangaroos instead of sheepand cattle could cut greenhousegases produced by grazing livestock
i i l id fl f
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irrational ideas: no flags, no footprint
Source - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/10/germany.euro2008
But a few days into the Euro 2008 footballchampionships fans are being advised not tofly their flags - because they could damagethe environment
- The Guardian
i i l id h ll bl d
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irrational ideas: Shells sustainable tar sands
Source http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/aug/13/corporatesocialresponsibility.fossilfuels
UK advertising authority: Shell mislead public byclaiming tar sands as sustainable source!
i i l id h b k
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irrational ideas: how to green books
Source - http://www.amazon.com/Lazy-Environmentalist-Guide-Stylish-Living/dp/1584796022
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S F i Ph t lt i ?
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Or
San Francisco Photovoltaics?
Mojave?
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Irrational ideas: scalable wind
Good: Wind turbine shows declining costs over time
but
Technical: Betz limit (59.6%) Scalability: good sites declining Adoption Risk: Systems for distributed sources
StorageStorage is the key for wind poweris the key for wind power
i ti l id Z E i i B ildi
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irrational ideas: Zero Emission Buildings
... the new fashion?
i ti l id l il b d bi di l
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irrational ideas: palm-oil based biodiesel
The European Union was recently shocked tolearn that some of its imported biodiesel, derivedfrom palm trees planted on rain-forest lands, was
more than twice as bad for climate warming aspetroleum diesel
- David Tilman and Jason Hill
Source - http://www.deseretnews.com/article/1,5143,660207597,00.html?pg=3
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lets face the facts
Prius: vs. painting 1000 sq-ft of roof white
Electric cars?
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Electric Cars?
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and renewable electricity?
stacking one risky transformation on another?
Sh N ?
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Showering/Drinking (in North America): 100-250L
Growing 1 KG of Wheat: 1,000L
Growing 1 KG of Beef: 15,000L!
Shower or Not?
If you really want to save water,become a vegetarian!
Source: The Economist
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7272
no change bigotry vs.
environmental everything vs. pragmentalists
TOOrational ideas: the Exxon view?
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TOOrational ideas: the Exxon view ?
Source NY Times
Discipline, Patience, Vision Green!
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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technology expands the Art of thePossible
todays unimaginable or tomorrows conventional wisdom
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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and remember.
New Technology Has A History
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0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
C o n n e c
t i o n s
i n L o n
d o n
90 93 95 99
Source: When Old Technologies Were New
In 1885, Yale students who were getting more lightthan they relished chopped down an electric pole
erected at the corner of the campus
New Technology Has A History ...
Dotcom bubble but net traffic growth continued
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050Internet TrafficMorgan Stanley High Technology Index
Dotcom bubble but net traffic growth continued
T e r a
b y t e s
M o r g a n
S t a n
l e y H
i g h
T e c
h n o
l o g y
I n d e x
Source: Andrew Odlyzko (University of Minnesota Digital Technology Center)Morgan Stanley Technology Index from Yahoo Finance
200yrs of Technology Speculation
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Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment returns
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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our renewable portfolio
Not Your Niche Markets Anymore!
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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Not Your Niche Markets Anymore!
Corn Ethanol
Biodiesel
Solar PV
Wind
Geothermal
The Markets You Think Of The New Green: Maintech not Cleantech
Engines ($200B)
Lighting ($80B - US)
Appliances ($10sB+ )
Batteries + Flow Cells($50B+)
Gasoline ($500B+) Diesel ($500B+)
Jet Fuel ($100B+)
Cement ($100B+)
Water ($500B+)
Glass ($40B)
Home Building (!!!)
BioPlastics ($10sB+)
Generation - $250B - US
Solar Thermal EGS
Clean Coal
New Nukes80
Sequestration d
S o l a
r
S o l a
r
Khosla Ventures Renewable
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CellulosicEthanol
S u g a r F e e d
s t o c k s
S t a r c h F
e e d s t o c k s
ToolsSolar
NaturalGas
MechanicalEfficiency
ElectricalEfficiency
CellulosicFutureFuels
Plastics
Water
Materials
SequestrationToolsEPC
W a s t e W a t e r W a t e r D e s a l i n a t i o n
PVCPlasticizers
PolyurethanePolyethylene
GlassCement
D i s t r i b
u t e d
U t i l i t y
S c a l e
Coal
EfficiencyOil
HomesEngines
AppliancesPumps
LightingBatteries
Motors
E n g i n e
e r e d G e o
t h e r m a
l
W i n d S
t o r a g e
S y n t h e
t i c N a t
u r a l G a s
Corn/Sugar Fuels
Wind
BuildingMaterials
Geothermal
ButanolCellul. Diesel
Cellul. GasolineCellul. Jet Fuel
Portfolio
NanostellarStionAusra
Khosla Ventures Renewable
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MascomaRange
CoskataLanza
Cilion
ToolsSolar
NaturalGas
MechanicalEfficiency
ElectricalEfficiency
CellulosicFutureFuels
Plastics
Water
Materials
Codon
NanoH2O
DrathsSegetis
SoladigmCalera
InfiniaPVT
Coal
EfficiencyOil
PAX StreamlineEcoMotorsTransonic
TulaHybradrive
Seeo Kaai
SoraaLumenzTopanga
GIVGridshift
A l t a R o c
k
G r e a
t P o i n
t E n e r g y
Corn/Sugar Fuels
Wind
BuildingMaterials
Geothermal
Amyris LS9
GevoKiOR
Portfolio
Sakti3FireflyRamu
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83
Together, our products will improve the way all people live
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85
Living Homes
And prefabricated, environmentally friendly, cheaper, LEEDS homes
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86
Soladigm
Using electrochromatic windows
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87
Amyris
LS9
Gevo
Kior
Mascoma
Range Fuels
Coskata
LanzaTech
Fueled from renewable sources
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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88
Ramu
EcoMotors
TransonicFirefly
Seeo
Sakti3
Nanostellar
Tula Technologies
With reduced fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions
Hybradrive
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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89
Topanga
Lit by high intensity, low power discharge lighting
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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90
Ausra
Altarock
InfiniaStion
PVT Solar
Using renewable electricity
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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91
Great Point Energy
Cooking with natural gas from clean coal & biomass
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
92/110
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93
Kaai
Watching HD laser TV
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94
NanoH2O
Drinking desalinated water
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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95
Segetis
Safely using biobased plastics and chemicals
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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97
Pax Streamline
Staying comfortable with more efficient air conditioning
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98
Change every aspect of daily living
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
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to predict the future, invent it!Forecast 2015:
New cheaper than fossil technologies proven
Forecast 2030 :
How will oil compete?
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100
In my view for the United States, it is thegreatest economic opportunity we've had sincewe mobilized for World War Two. If we do it
right, it will produce job gains and income gainssubstantially greater than the 1990s.
Bill Clinton on the green economy
Source: Speech at U.S Conference of Mayors Climate Protection SummitSource: Speech at U.S Conference of Mayors Climate Protection Summit
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Challenge conventional solutions
The nine dots problem
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
102/110
The nine dots problem
Source: Amory Lovins, RMI
Standard nine dots solution
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
103/110
Standard nine dots solution
Source: Amory Lovins, RMI
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
104/110
Better: use just three lines
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
105/110
Better: use just three lines
Buthow about just one line?
Source: Amory Lovins, RMI
Geographers Solution
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
106/110
Source: Amory Lovins, RMI
g p
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
107/110
Origami Solution
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
108/110
Source: Amory Lovins, RMI
Wide Line Solution
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
109/110
Source: Amory Lovins, RMI
8/14/2019 Venture Capitalist Vinod Khosla on Renewable Energy, 2009
110/110
or get to work
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