Post on 07-Jul-2020
Sumit Sharma, Sumit Kumar Gautam TERI
VEHICULAR EMISSIONS & AIR QUALITY IN INDIA
OUTLINE
• Air pollution in India • Share of transport sector • Regional scale view of air pollution in India • Impacts of air pollution • Effects of introduction of advanced vehicular emission norms and
improved fuel quality • Way forward
AIR POLLUTION IN INDIA
NAAQS Pollutant
Time Weighted Average
Concentration in Ambient air (Industrial, Residential, Rural and other Area )
Sulphur Dioxide (SO2), µg/m3
24 hours* Annual average
80 50
Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), µg/m3
24 hours** Annual average
80 40
Particulate matter (size less than 10µm) or PM10, µg/m3
24 hours Annual average
100 60
Carbon Monoxide (CO), mg/m3
8 hourly 1 Hourly
2 4
Ozone (O3), µg/m3
8 hourly 1 Hourly
100 180
Particulate matter (size less than 10µm) or PM25, µg/m3
24 hours Annual average
60 40
RSPM CONCENTRATION (2009)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
RSP
M C
once
ntra
tion
(µg/
m³)
More than 80% cities violate the standards of RSPM
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
NO
2 C
once
ntra
tion
(µg/
m³)
• Close to the standards at many places • Highest at Howrah, Kolkata, Delhi
NO2 CONCENTRATIONS(2009)
CORRELATION: VEHICLES AND NOX (2007)
Delhi
BangaloreMumbai
Hyderabad
BhopalVaranasi
Surat
KanpurVadodara
Nagpur
Ahmedabad
R2 = 0.73
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000
Total Vehicles
NOx
conc
entra
tion
(µg/
m³)
TRANSPORT SECTOR IN INDIA
PHENOMENAL GROWTH OF PRIVATE VEHICLES
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
195119561961196619711976198119861991199620012006
No. (
'000
)
Total 2w Cars
• A developing country phenomena
• Growth in income
• Mobility demands
• Lack of efficient public transport system
• Competitive market
• 27 k two wheelers in 1951 to 26 lakhs in 1981 to 9.1 crores in 2010 • 1.5 lakh cars in 1951 to 11.6 lakh in 1981 to 1.4 crore in 2010
CONGESTION
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
Delhi
Mumbai
Varana
si
Bangalo
re
Kolkata
Hyderab
ad
Chennai
Bhuban
eshwar
Guwahati
Kanpur
Surat
Raipur
NagpurJa
ipur
Ahmed
abad
Hubli
Triven
drumPatn
a
Gangtok
Pondich
erry
Con
gest
ion
inde
x051015202530
2007 2011 2021 2031A
vera
ge s
peed
(km
/h)
Cat-1 Cat-2 Cat-3 Cat-4 Cat-5
Data source : WSA, 2008
• About 25000 two wheelers, and 5000 cars added to India’s vehicular fleet daily
• Road space almost same
• Limited transport infrastructure
• Traffic jams: waste of fuel, time, emissions, discomfort
• Reduced speeds
• 320 kl of petrol and 100 kl of diesel burnt daily due to the idling of vehicles at traffic intersections in Delhi alone (CRRI, 2003)
SHARE OF TRANSPORT SECTOR IN AMBIENT AIR POLLUTION: SOURCE APPORTIONMENT STUDY
EMISSIONS AT COUNTRY LEVEL
Sector-wise NOx Emissions in India13
87
13
305 60
5
353
1702
1531
14
481 67
9
408
1931
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Po
wer
Pla
nts
Oth
er F
uel
Prod
uctio
nan
dC
onsu
mpt
ion
Indu
stria
lC
ombu
stio
n
Non
-Ene
rgy
Use
Dom
estic
Tran
spor
t
kilo
tonn
es
2000 2005
SHARE OF TRANSPORT SECTOR IN DIFFERENT CITIES
19 10 15
49 57
7
4
11
26
18
4
5
9
19
3
26
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Bangalore Pune Kanpur
PM10 (Residential)
Transport Paved road & soil dust Industries Domestic DG sets Secondary Others
48 34
24
4
4 5
6 16 28
28 18
14
46 24
0
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Bangalore Pune Kanpur
PM2.5 (Residential)
Transport Paved road & soil dust Industries Domestic DG sets Secondary Others
• Share of transport sector increases if we move from PM10 to PM2.5 (finer fractions)
• In non-industrial cities, it is the largest source
SHARE OF TRANSPORT IN NOX EMISSIONS
67%
95%
47%
0%
0%
0%
23%
0% 8% 2%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Bangalore Pune Kanpur
NOx emissions
Transport Road Dust Domestic DG Set
Industry Hotel Construction Others
SHARE OF COMMERCIAL VEHICLES (BANGALORE)
Transport -PM
13%
21%
13%27%
24%2%
2W 3W Car Bus Truck Tractor
Transport NOx
15%
2%
12%
49%
20%2%
2W 3W Car Bus Truck Tractor
ALTERNATE SCENARIO DESCRIPTION Sector
s Alternate-I Alternate-II Alternate-III Alternate-IV
Description
Strategies to reduce the air pollution loads across various sectors.
Stringent scenario with many more strategies as compared to Alternate- I scenario.
Scenario that contains additional set of measures that are not a part of the common control options (e.g., introduction of FES, installation of (DOC/DPF)
Scenario with measures that are more oriented towards meeting the air quality standards in future
Transport
• BS-V in 2015 • Ban on 10
year old commercial vehicles
• Metro • PTS - diesel • I&M • DOC in BS-II
buses and DPF in BS-III buses
• BS-VI in 2015 • Ban on 10-yr old
com. and 15-yr old private vehicles
• Metro • PTS -CNG • Electric vehicles • I&M • Conversion of
public transport to CNG
• BS-VI in 2015 • Ban on 15 yr old com. vehicles in 2012 and 10 yr old in 2017 • Metro • PTS-diesel • Electric vehicles • I&M • DOC/DPF after introduction of BS- IV fuel in 2010 to:
Old Buses and Trucks • Fuel efficiency standards
• BS-V in 2015 • Ban on 10 yr old com.
vehicles • Metro • PTS- CNG • Electric vehicles • I&M • Conversion of public
transport (commercial 3 & 4 w) to CNG
• By-passing of trucks around Bangalore
ALTERNATE SCENARIO DESCRIPTION (CONTD.) Sectors Alternate-I Alternate-II Alternate-III Alternate-IV Industries Ban new air
polluting industries in city limits
• Ban on any new air polluting industries in city limits • Shift from solid to
liquid fuel
• Ban on any new air polluting industries in city limits
• Shift from solid fuel to liquid fuel
• Ban on any new air polluting industries in city limits
• Shift from solid fuel to liquid fuel
DG sets • Inspection and maintenance
• Inspection and maintenance
• DOC and DPF applied to commercial DG sets (>12 kVA)
• No power cuts i.e. no usage of DG sets in the city
Road dust re-suspension
• Wall to wall paving
• Wall to wall paving • Wall to wall paving • Reduction of road
dust re-suspension due to by-passing of trucks
Construction
• Better construction practices
• Better construction practices
• Better construction practices
ESTIMATED EMISSIONS LOADS FOR PM10 AND NOX UNDER THE BAU & ALT SCENARIOS
54.4
71.9
95.8
54.4 57.2
74.5
54.445.1
53.254.4
43.5
54.4
34.642.4
32.9
0
25
50
75
100
2007 2012 2017
PM
em
issi
on
load
s (T
/d)
BAU ALT-I ALT-II ALT-III ALT-IV
217
460
217
350
217217
299
217
122
321
254
227275258
131
0
100
200
300
400
500
2007 2012 2017
NO
x em
issi
on lo
ads
(T/d
)
BAU ALT-I ALT-II ALT-III ALT-IV
%PM reduction w.r.t. BAU Scenario 2012 2017 ALT-I -20% -22% ALT-II -37% -44% ALT-III -41% -55% ALT-IV -54% -64%
% NOx reduction wrt BAU Scenario 2012 2017 ALT-I -21% -24% ALT-II -29% -40% ALT-III -20% -35% ALT-IV -59% -73%
NOX CONCENTRATION (µG/M3) FOR BAU & ALT SCENARIOS
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 240000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
0 µg/m3
20 µg/m3
40 µg/m3
60 µg/m3
80 µg/m3
100 µg/m3
120 µg/m3
140 µg/m3
160 µg/m3
180 µg/m3
200 µg/m3
220 µg/m3
240 µg/m3
260 µg/m3
280 µg/m3
300 µg/m3
BAU 2007
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 240000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
0 µg/m3
20 µg/m3
40 µg/m3
60 µg/m3
80 µg/m3
100 µg/m3
120 µg/m3
140 µg/m3
160 µg/m3
180 µg/m3
200 µg/m3
220 µg/m3
240 µg/m3
260 µg/m3
280 µg/m3
300 µg/m3
BAU 2012
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 240000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
0 µg/m3
20 µg/m3
40 µg/m3
60 µg/m3
80 µg/m3
100 µg/m3
120 µg/m3
140 µg/m3
160 µg/m3
180 µg/m3
200 µg/m3
220 µg/m3
240 µg/m3
260 µg/m3
280 µg/m3
300 µg/m3
BAU 2017
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 240000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
0 µg/m3
20 µg/m3
40 µg/m3
60 µg/m3
80 µg/m3
100 µg/m3
120 µg/m3
140 µg/m3
160 µg/m3
180 µg/m3
200 µg/m3
220 µg/m3
240 µg/m3
260 µg/m3
280 µg/m3
300 µg/m3
Alt III 2012
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 240000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
0 µg/m3
20 µg/m3
40 µg/m3
60 µg/m3
80 µg/m3
100 µg/m3
120 µg/m3
140 µg/m3
160 µg/m3
180 µg/m3
200 µg/m3
220 µg/m3
240 µg/m3
260 µg/m3
280 µg/m3
300 µg/m3
Alt IV 2012
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 240000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
0 µg/m3
20 µg/m3
40 µg/m3
60 µg/m3
80 µg/m3
100 µg/m3
120 µg/m3
140 µg/m3
160 µg/m3
180 µg/m3
200 µg/m3
220 µg/m3
240 µg/m3
260 µg/m3
280 µg/m3
300 µg/m3
Alt III 2017
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 240000
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
0 µg/m3
20 µg/m3
40 µg/m3
60 µg/m3
80 µg/m3
100 µg/m3
120 µg/m3
140 µg/m3
160 µg/m3
180 µg/m3
200 µg/m3
220 µg/m3
240 µg/m3
260 µg/m3
280 µg/m3
300 µg/m3
Alt IV 2017
• Alternate scenarios show a significant decrease compared to BAU scenario (both in 2012 & 2017)
• Alt. IV scenario, has maximum reduction and all the areas in the study domain comply against the residential area standards
REGIONAL SCALE IMPACTS OF NOX • While considerable attention paid to PM, NOx still remains almost
unattended
• Health impacts
• Leads to secondary particulate formulations
• Acid rain
• Important pre-cursor to Ozone formation
• Regional scale impacts of NOx
OZONE FORMATION
• NOx is an important pre-cursor for Ozone formation
• Ozone values higher during April and October which generally have more sunshine than the winter and monsoon months of January and July, respectively.
• Not only health but agricultural productivity is impacted
IMPACTS • Sufficient evidence to document the causal relationship with the onset of childhood
asthma, non-asthma respiratory diseases, impaired lung function, cardiovascular mortality and morbidity.
• As per TERI’s estimates, about 50,000 deaths could be attributed annually to ambient air pollution in the country.
• Institute of Economic Growth (Delhi), 2003 estimated the annual damages from the urban air pollution in 15 major cities as Rs 111392 million.
• ICCT, 2012 suggests that about 9500 excess deaths were avoided due to advancement of vehicular emission norms during 2000-2011. Moreover, by the year 2035, 48000 mortalities could be avoided annually, if stringent actions like advancement to improved vehicular emissions norms, provision of ULSD, improvement of fuel efficiency etc could be taken in the short timeframe.
• Effects on vegetation, visibility, ecology etc
EMISSIONS FROM COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
SHARE OF COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Bangalore Delhi Pune
PM10 emissions
2W 3W Car Bus Truck Others
U.S. HDV GHG AND FUEL EFFICIENCY FINAL RULE
• 26 % share in the transportation fuel used in the U.S.
• Sets separate standards for engines and vehicles, ensures improvements in both
• Sets separate standards for fuel consumption, CO2, N2O, CH4 and HFCs. Fuel consumption and CO2 standards are aligned.
• Incentives for advanced technologies (e.g. EVs and Hybrids)
Source : EPA
Benefits 530 million barrels less oil ⎭270 MMT lower GHGs ⎭$50 billion in fuel savings ⎭$8 billion in new hardware ⎭$42 billion in net savings ⎭$49 billion in net benefits
STRATEGIES TO REDUCE EMISSIONS FROM HD COMMERCIAL VEHICLES • Technological advancements – emissions control, fuel efficiency
improvements • Fuel quality improvements • Better I&M programs • Effective traffic planning
• Plying restrictions • Bye-passing of transit traffic
• Installation of control devices in older vehicles • Fleet modernization programs