Post on 08-Feb-2016
description
Using Historical Documents to Reconstruct Climate
Cameron Douglas CraigIndiana State University Climate Laboratory
Department of Geography, Geology, and AnthropologyIndiana State University
Terre Haute, Indiana
Agenda
• Historical Documents• The Acquisition of Sources• Interpreting the Data• Critical Reconstruction• Methodological Problems• Conclusion
Historical Documents
• Primary Sources– First Hand Accounts– Unedited and
Unpublished • Examples of Primary
Sources– Ship Logs– Military Logs– Personal Journals and
Diaries– Newspapers
Collection No. SC592. IHS.
Historical Documents
• Personal Journals and Diaries– Historical preservation of daily events
• People wanted to remember what they did and who they met day to day.
• Entertaining
– Time-travel to the past• Financial records• Personal thoughts• Lifestyles• Weather conditions
Samuel Shirk Collection, 1852. IHS.
Historical Documents
• Why Record the Weather?– Complete description
• a full picture of daily events: “What was it like when…”
– Agricultural• Planting season with frost dates recorded• Yield from the previous years harvest (insight into
the amount of precipitation)
Historical Documents• What Weather Conditions were
Recorded?– Temperature
• Relative terms due to the lack of thermometers• Occasional collections with actual temperatures
– Sky conditions• Cloud cover
– Precipitation type• Rain• Snow
Collection No. SC717 F3. IHS.
The Acquisition of Sources
• What are Archival Institutions?– Depository of historical documents and
artifacts– Non-circulation library
• Local Archival Institutions– Indiana Historical Society, William H. Smith
Memorial Library, Indianapolis, Indiana– Indiana State Library, Indianapolis, Indiana
Historiography
• Words and Their Meaning– Past versus present
• “Hot” today would not necessarily mean the same then.
• Gender Differences– Male versus female observers
• Males had to provide for the family.• Females were in charge of the household
functions.
Historiography• Historical Documents
– People Traveled• Weather observations in nearby cities can be
used to reconstruct data.– Concerns:
• Cross-examination of other stationary observers must be implemented.
• Limit of distance from Indiana must also be implemented.
– St. Louis– Cincinnati– Chicago
Historiography• Historical Documents Continued
– Eye of the Beholder• Catastrophic events sometimes overstated and
must be cross-examined with other witnesses.– Illness
• Some observers did not record observations due to illness.
– Look to other observers to fill in gaps.
– Gaps between observers• Statistical methods employed by Climatologists
can fill in the gaps accurately.
Historiography
• Cross-Examination– Important to accurately reconstruct
temperature scheme.• Newspapers• Witness to witness
Interpreting the Data
• The Climatologist as Detective– Using descriptions other than weather
observations.
11-22-1857: Cloudy & cool-snow on ground-snowed in evening (28-32)
11-23-1857: Fine day & cool
11-24-1857: Cloudy-went to town in sleigh*
11-25-1857: Clear-went hunting in sleigh*
11-26-1857: Clear & warm
11-27-1857: Clear & warm-snow off (33-40)
Critical Reconstruction
• Creating a Temperature Scheme– Rank-ordered word scales (Baron, 1992)
• Relative Temperatures put into a numerical index:
– +14 (very hottest)– -14 (very coldest)– 0 (considered normal)
– A rank-ordered word scale is created for each witness.
– Critical reconstruction ties all witnesses together to create the final product.
Index Relative Term
9 Hottest
8 Excessively Hot
7 Very Hot
6 Hot
5 Warmer
4 Some Warmer
3 Little Warmer
2 Warm
1 Moderate
0 Pleasant (Normal)
-1 Cool
-2 Some Cooler
-3 Cooler
-4 Little Chilly
-5 Very Chilly
-6 Cold
-7 Quite Cold
-8 Some Colder (Frozen/Freezing)
-9 Colder (Heavy Frost)
-10 Tolerable Cold
-11 Very Cold
-12 Coldest
Figure 3.1. Frequency of relative terms. The Diary of Elisha King, 1854-1857.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
7 12 15 13 18 19 2 5 4 11 17 1 20 10 16 8 9 3 6 14 21 22Relative Terms Used in the Journal
Freq
uenc
y
1--Coldest2--Very Cold3--Tolerable Cold4--Colder (Heavy Frost)5--Some Colder (Frozen/Freezing)6--Quite Cold7--Cold8--Very Chilly
9--Litt le Chilly10-Cooler11-Some Cooler12-Cool13-Pleasant14-Moderate15-Warm16-Litt le Warmer
17-Some Warmer18-Warmer19-Hot20-Very Hot21-Excessively Hot22-Hottest
Observer Period Covered
Type of Observation
George M. Beeler 1864 Continuous weather observations in qualitative form.
Churchman Table 1872-1877 Contains only low temperatures for winter months.
Rufus Haymond, M.D.
1845-1871 Scattered observations. Inconsistent.
Elisha King 1854-1862 Continuous weather observations in qualitative form; many in great detail.
William Scudder, Jr. 1856-1859 Continuous weather observations in qualitative form; not in great detail.
Samuel Shirk 1852 and 1855 Two excellent diaries with actual temperatures throughout each.
Date Elisha King Samuel Shirk
1/25/1855 Snowing AM/QuitSnowing/Warmer
Snowing/20° F/2 inches deep—the most this winter
2/3/1855 The coldest day yet. Clear nearly all day.
Clear—0° F Coldest day.
2/27/1855 Cold and Clear Clear thermometer a shade above zero
4/17/1855 Warm—the warmest Hazy 86° F
7/15/1855 Very hot and sultry Clear 98° F
7/17/1855 The hottest and clear Clear 94° F
-13-12-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789
10
11/1/54 11/1/55 11/1/56 11/1/57 11/1/58 11/1/59 11/1/60 11/1/61 11/1/62
Date
Dep
artu
re I
ndex
Figure 4.11. Relative temperatures from Elisha King's Diary, 1854-1862.
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
4/1/57 5/1/57 6/1/57 7/1/57 8/1/57 9/1/57 10/1/57 11/1/57 12/1/57 1/1/58 2/1/58 3/1/58 4/1/58
Date
Dep
artu
re In
dex
Figure 4.13. Relative temperatures from Will iam Scudder, Jr., 1857-1858.
Figure 4.20. Samuel Shirk's record of actual temperatures, 1852.
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1/1/52 2/1/52 3/1/52 4/1/52 5/1/52 6/1/52 7/1/52 8/1/52 9/1/52 10/1/52 11/1/52 12/1/52
Date
Tem
pera
ture
(F)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1/1/55 2/1/55 3/1/55 4/1/55 5/1/55 6/1/55 7/1/55 8/1/55 9/1/55 10/1/55 11/1/55 12/1/55
Date
Tem
pera
ture
(F)
Figure 4.10. Samuel Shirk's recrd of actual temperatures, 1855.
Figure 4.21. Patterns derived from combined records.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1552 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76
Year
Ran
k O
rder
ed W
ord
Scal
es
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Act
ual T
empe
ratu
re (F
)
Elisha King William Scudder, Jr. Samuel Shirk Churchman
Conclusion
• Exercise– What is a “relative” term?– Describe the current weather.
• Relative Temperature• Sky Conditions• Personal Observational Remarks
– Compare your results• Which of the descriptions do you agree with the
most?– Problems……………
Climate and ArtClimate and Art
John E. OliverJohn E. OliverCameron D. CraigCameron D. Craig
Department of Geography, Geology, and AnthropologyDepartment of Geography, Geology, and AnthropologyIndiana State UniversityIndiana State University
Terre Haute, IndianaTerre Haute, Indiana