Use of emissions & other data reported within the LRTAP Convention in the IIASA GAINS model

Z.Klimont (klimont@iiasa.ac.at) Center for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)

Emission Inventory Compilers and Users Workshop13th May 2013, Istanbul, Turkey

Typical IIASA-GAINS model use

• Understanding/reproducing reported emissions,

• Projecting emissions, • Assessing mitigation potential,• Calculating control costs,• Assessing impacts and searching

for cost-optimal strategies considering constraints/targets

• In all elements listed above we benefit from your and other stakeholders’ work and collaborate with other EMEP centers

Emissions, costs

time

Baselineemissions

Mitigation potential

Controlcosts

PM (BC, OC)

SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO CO2 CH4 N2OHFCsPFCsSF6

Health impacts: PM (Loss in life expectancy)

O3 (Premature mortality)

Vegetation damage: O3

Acidification

Eutrophication

Climate impacts: Long-term + + + +

Near-term forcing +/- - +/- + - +

Black carbon deposition +

The RAINS model(Regional Acidification Information and Simulation)

The GAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework (Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies)

Central question for policy makersExample: Revision of European air quality policy

To what level should the emissions of air pollutants be reduced in the year 2020?

– Where will emissions and effects be in 2020 without further policies?

– What reductions are technically feasible?– How much do they cost? – optimal/non-optimal– Who (which countries) pays?– How much are they willing to pay?– Who benefits?– Is it enough?– Is it fair?

Scope for further environmental improvements in the UNECE area: 4(6) effects

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

YOLLs O3 deaths Acidification,forest area

Acidification,AAE all

ecosystems

Eutrophication,ecosystems

area

Eutrophication,AAE all

ecosystems

Imp

act

ind

icato

r in

20

20

rela

tive t

o 2

00

0

PRIMES MTFR Scope for measures National MTFR Scope for measures

Closing the gap

Expected achievements of current policy; relative to 2000

Scope

Results of GAINS analysis for TSAP (EU Thematic Strategy for Air Pollution):

Health impacts PM2.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Base

line

MTF

R-EU

Base

line

MTF

R-EU

Base

line

MTF

R-EU

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030M

illio

n YO

LLs

TSAP target for 2020: -47%

Baseline implies ~5 months shortening of statistical life expectancy after 2020

Additional MTFR measures could save ~55 million years of life ofEuropean population

2010

2020 CLE

2030 MCE

Years of life lost

Loss

in s

tatis

tical

life

exp

ecta

ncy

(mon

ths)

Results of GAINS analysis for TSAP (EU Thematic Strategy for Air Pollution):

Emission reductions in central scenario: NH3

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

GER

M

CRO

A

SKRE

SPAI

FRAN

POLA

HU

NG

AUST

ITAL

PORT

CZRE

LITH

CYPR

ESTO

UN

KI

LUXE

BELG

ROM

A

SLO

V

LATV

GRE

E

MAL

T

SWED

BULG

FIN

L

DEN

M

IREL

NET

H

EU28

NH

3 re

ducti

ons r

elati

ve to

bas

elin

e

Other NH3 sourcesSheep and GoatsAgricultural Waste burningPoultryNon-Dairy CattleDairy CattlePigsUrea Fertilizer

Key measures:• Efficient (‘low emission’) application of urea fertilizer• Low nitrogen feed (pigs, dairy cows, poultry)• Low emission application of livestock manures; liquid and solid• Closed storage of manures and new low emission housing (pigs, poultry)

PM (BC, OC)

SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO CO2 CH4 N2OHFCsPFCsSF6

Health impacts: PM (Loss in life expectancy)

O3 (Premature mortality)

Vegetation damage: O3

Acidification

Eutrophication

Climate impacts: Long-term + + + +

Near-term forcing +/- - +/- + - +

Black carbon deposition +

The GAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework (Greenhouse gas and Air pollution INteractions and Synergies)

Co-control of GHGs and air pollutantsAnnex I parties of UNFCCC, 2020

Source: IIASA GAINS http://gains.iiasa.ac.at

Considering co-emission of pollutants at technology level results in different mixes (ratios) of pollutants depending on chosen strategy

Example: Mitigation potentials in 2030 in in two scenarios developed in UNEP (2011) study

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

CH4 CO NOx VOC PM2.5 BC OC OtherPM2.5

SO2

Em

issio

n r

ed

ucti

on

re

lati

ve t

o b

aselin

e in

20

30

Emission reductions from

the chosen 16 measures all other 2000 measures

Source: IIASA GAINShttp://gains.iiasa.ac.at

BC emissions in the EU-27, baseline, relative change and thousand tons [total] Source: GAINS model

2005 2010 2020 20300%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

OtherTransportDomestic combustionTotal

FINN GFED

McCarty (Agr) McCarty (Crop)

Courtesy of Jessica McCarty, Michigan Tech Research Institute

Incomplete wish list… for discussion in the afternoon?

• National vs international databases: how to improve consistency, e.g, non-commercial fuelwood use,

• How to improve spatial allocation of some sources, e.g., inland navigation

• TFEIP repository of national, often not peer-reviewed, studies?

• More regular involvement of remote sensing and inverse modelling community,

• Strengthen collaboration with other regional and global inventory activities (developers and users), e.g. MACCity, GEIA, HTAP, etc.

More details and background available from:

• General GAINS policy portal:http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/MitigationofAirPollutionandGreenhousegases/Overview.en.html – GAINS model: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at

• UNECE Gothenburg Protocol revision work– http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/gothenburg-protocol-

revision

• Review of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP); towards revision of National Emission Ceiling Directive (NECD)– http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/tsap