Post on 05-Jul-2020
U.S. Pet Food Market Perspective and Prospects, 2010‐2011
David Lummis
Packaged Facts Senior Pet Market Analyst
Today’s Agenda
Consider U.S. pet food market in context of overall pet industry and societal trends.
Evaluate pet food market in short‐term historical context (economy!).
Identify trends and opportunities.
Electrolux TV Spot— “Birthday Party”
Kenmore Washer TV Commercial
$52.69(5.0%)
$5.82(3.7%)
$10.71(2.5%)
$17.77(4.5%)
$18.40(7.5%)
$0 $60
Total Pet Market
Non-Medical Pet Services
Pet Supplies
Pet Food
Veterinary Services
U.S. Pet Market Retail Sales by Category: 2009 vs. Year Ago(in billions)
Source: Packaged Facts Pet Market Outlook 2010‐2011
Pets as Family
• Human/animal bond never stronger…
• Why? – Marketing
– Non‐traditional family units
– Digital age
– Even stronger with recession
• Shifting societal mores…
91%*
93%
93%
93%
73%
75%
77%
75%
19%
18%
17%
18%
0% 140%
Pet Owners
Dog or Cat Owners
Dog Owners
Cat Owners
Agree a Little Agree a Lot Any Agree
“Consider My Pet(s) Part of the Family”:By Percent of Pet, Dog/Cat, Dog and Cat Owners, February 2009
Source: Packaged Facts online poll, February 2009 (2,600 U.S. adult respondents, including 1,668 pet owners).
14%*
5%*
31%
26% 25%
0%
35%
Agree a Little Agree a Lot Neither Agree or Disagree
Disagree a Little
Disagree a Lot
Percent of Pet Owners Who Anticipate Spending Less on Pet Food/Supplies in Next 12 Months: February 2009
Source: Packaged Facts online poll, February 2009 (2,600 U.S. adult respondents, including 1,668 pet owners).
19.1%
35.7%
18.7%
20.5%
5.9%
0% 50%
Strongly Disagree
Somewhat Disagree
No Opinion/Not Applicable
Somewhat Agree
Strongly Agree
Level of Pet Owner Agreement with Statement:“I Am Spending Less on Pet Products Because of the Economy”
(February 2010)
Source: Packaged Facts online pet owner poll, February 2010
22%
31%
32%
42%
45%
53%
55%
61%
73%
NA
42%
37%
44%
48%
57%
58%
64%
NA
0% 100%
Choose Products Because of Loyalty Card Discounts
Select Products to Create More Meals at Lowest Total Cost
Buy Brands Other Than Preferred/Usual Brand Because They are on Sale
Seek Out and Buy Store Brands to Save Money
Make Additional Unplanned Purchases After Seeing Products/Deals in Store
Stock Up on Certain Items Because They Are on Sale
Choose Store Specifically Because it Offers Lower Prices on Things You Need
Look at Store Flyer Before or At Store
Make a Shopping List Prior to Going to the Store
2008 2009
Deal‐Seeking Behavior: Percentage of Shoppers Participating in Activity, 2008 vs. 2009
Source: IRI January 2010 Times & Trends: Price, Promotion & Merchandising: Balancing the Call Between Value and Price Relief
74%
67%
76%
71%
69%
64%
60% 80%
Discount Stores
Supermarkets
Pet Stores*
2004 2009
Percent of Pet Product Customers Who Shop Across Channels: By Major Retail Sector, 2004 vs. 2009
(U.S. dog‐ or cat‐owning households)
Source: Compiled by Packaged Facts based on data from Experian Simmons National Consumer Study, Fall 2004 and Summer 2009. This material is used with permission. Packaged Facts’ Pet Market Outlook, 2010‐2011
Cross‐Channel Warfare
TV Spot for Walmart’s Pet Specialty Brands
TV Spot for PetSmart’s 20% Off Sale
Walmart vs. Pet Superstores
22.9% 24.5%
52.6%
26.0% 27.3%
46.7%
0%
60%
PetSmart & Petco Walmart Other
2005 2009Packaged Facts’ Pet Market Outlook, 2010‐2011
Petco Launches“Unleashed” Store Format,Staff Training,Consumer EdPrograms
Premiumization
49.4%
49.1%
66.9%
63.6%
27.2%
27.7%
45.8%
36.4%
20% 80%
Pet Food
Pet Supplies
Non-MedicalPet Services
Veterinary Services
1998 2008
$70K+ Household Share of U.S. Pet Market Expenditures:By Category, 1998 vs. 2008(percent)
370
426
295
408
465
200
300
400
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
(15.1%)
(-30.8%) (38.3%)
(14.0%)
Number of New Pet Product Introductions, 2005-2009(percent)
Source: Compiled by Packaged Facts based on data from Product Launch Analytics, a Datamonitor service. Reproduction, resale or other distribution of this content is expressly prohibited without the written permission of the publisher. Packaged Facts Pet Market Outlook 2010‐2011
56
36
47
28
56
50
62
90
135
138
40
39
48
48
60
50
75
104
142
154
49
51
53
61
62
67
78
108
185
249
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Fresh
No Artificial Flavor
No Artificial Color
High Antioxidants
High Protein
No Preservatives
High Minerals
High Vitamins
Upscale
Natural
2009 2007 2005
Top Marketing Claims by Number of New Pet Product Reports,2005, 2007 and 2009
Source: Packaged Facts Pet Market Outlook 2010‐2011
Pedigree+ Functional Pet Food Line
Humanization
TV Spot for Purina Fancy Feast Appetizers
Print Ad for Mars Cesar Sunrise
“Breakfast Food”
Zoo Med’s New Canned Reptile Foods
6.8%
13.7%
8.2%
11.0%
8.9%
7.5%
12.6%
7.6%7.0%
9.2%
0%
16%
Food Medications Devices Supplements Total
CAGR 2004-2008CAGR 2008-2013
Growth Rates in U.S. Retail Sales of Senior, Weight Management,and Special Needs Pet Products, 2004‐2008 vs. 2008‐2013
Source: Packaged Facts Senior, Weight Management and Special Needs Products for Pets (September 2009)
Print Adfor Kong Senior Toys and Treats
Celebrity Impact
Look, we all want the best for our furry family members. And that’s exactly why I worked with experts in pet nutrition to create Rachael RayNutrish. My Isaboo loves food and treats made with simple, natural ingredients. So, what are you waiting for? Take a look around. See just how good these foods are and learn a little more about my pet charity, Rachael’s Rescue.
Glenn Close and Pet in TV Show Damages
Category Cross‐Over
Nestlé Purina’sFortiFlora ProbioticSupplement
Nestlé Purina’s Licensed PetGear Line
TV Spot for PetSmart Charities Valentine’s Day Weekend Pet Adoption Event
Cause Marketing
Going Green
• 2009 a Big Year…– Cardinal Labs– Nestlé Purina– Mars– Novus
• Worldwise• Planet Dog• Green = $$$
Humane Society’s Humane Choice Organic Pet Food
Packaged Facts’ Pet Market “3 Ps”
The Human‐Pet Health Connection
8.1%
5.2%
4.1%
5.3%6.0%
9.9%
4.1%4.6%
6.0%6.6%
0%
12%
Veterinary Services
Pet Food Pet Supplies Non-Medical Pet Services
Total
CAGR 2005-2009CAGR 2009-2014
U.S. Pet Market Compound Annual Growth Rates by Category:2005‐2009 vs. 2009‐2014
Source: Packaged Facts Pet Market Outlook 2010‐2011
$13.13 $13.88
$14.48 $15.20
$16.12
$17.00 $17.77
$18.57 $19.40
$20.18 $20.99
$21.72
$12
$23
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(5 7%)
(3.5%)
(4.0%)
(4.0%)
(4.5%)
(4.5%)
(4.5%)
(5.5%)
(6.0%)
(5.0%)(4.3%)
U.S. Retail Sales of Pet Food, 2003‐2014
Source: Packaged Facts
34.9% 33.7%
20.3%
11.0%
40.7%
30.0%
18.5%
10.8%
0%
50%
Veterinary Services
Pet Food Pet Supplies Non-Medical Pet Services
2009
2014
Percentage Share of U.S. Pet Market Retail Sales by Category,2009 vs. 2014
Source: Packaged Facts Pet Market Outlook 2010‐2011
Travelers Insurance TV Spot— “Things you care about”
Thank You!
Tel:
Email:
David Lummis
504‐931‐6322
mrginc@cox.net
Packaged Facts
Senior Pet Market Analyst