Post on 20-Aug-2020
NM Population Estimates and Projections
NOVEMBER 14, 2019
Jacqueline Miller, PhDSenior Research ScientistGeospatial and Population StudiesUniversity of New Mexicojmiller001@unm.edu505.277.0091
University of New MexicoGeospatial and Population Studies
Outline
Population Estimates Background
2018 Estimates
Statewide Trends
Population ProjectionsBackground
2019 Projections
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY‐SA‐NC
Population Estimates
Observations about current or past populations
Inexpensive updates to costly census counts
Methods are well‐established with known
biases
Produced by the US Census Bureau, state and local
agencies and private sector
Estimate Source Comparison
US Census Bureau UNMGPS
Data Sources Limited to nationally consistent data
State specific
Methods 1 3+Smallest Geography City/Town
N=138Census TractN=499
Race Categories 6 4
GPS Estimates Methodologies
Cohort‐ComponentPop2017 = Pop2010 + Births – Deaths
+ In Migration –Out Migration
Housing Unit
Ratio Correlation
Cohort Change Ratios
Population EstimatesKey Input Data
NM DOH VITAL RECORDS
NM MVD DRIVER’S LICENSES
NM PED SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
NM SOS VOTER REGISTRATIONS
CMS MEDICARE ENROLLMENT
IRS MIGRATION FILES
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS
GPS Estimates Methodology
Key Steps1. State Total2. County Totals3. Census Tract Totals4. Characteristics
Age/Sex/Race/Ethnicity5. Data Fitting
Factors Influencing Uncertainty and Error in Estimates
• Smaller populations• Further from the Last Census •Underrepresented Populations•On Tribal Lands•As Populations Change
New MexicoPopulation Estimates 2010‐2018
Source: UNM Geospatial and Population Studies (gps.unm.edu)
2065194
2081550
20922462096134
2099510 2102646 2103586 2102521 2101730
2040000
2050000
2060000
2070000
2080000
2090000
2100000
2110000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Eight Year Growth = 1.77%2017‐2018 Growth = ‐0.04%
Why Flat Growth?
Births are Down
Deaths are Up
Migration is Out
Source: Population Research Institute https://www.pop.org/u‐s‐fertility‐rate‐hits‐new‐record‐low/; National Center for Health Statistics
Declining Fertility
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Fertility Rate Among Hispanic and Non‐Hispanic Women in New Mexico, 2000‐2018
Hispanic Non‐Hispanic
Mortality
• Total deaths increasing due to aging population
• Mortality rates also increasing slightly
• People are less likely to live long lives if they are poor, get little exercise or lack access to health care (Dwyer‐Lindgren, Bertozzi‐Villa, Stubbs, et al., 2017). 0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Male Female
Births, Deaths, and Natural Increase in New Mexico 2001‐2018
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Deaths Births Natural Increase
Source: New Mexico Department of Health ‐ ibis.health.state.nm.us
NM State Total Vs. Natural Increase 2010‐2018
2,059,188
2101730.191
2,059,188
2,121,008
2,020,0002,030,0002,040,0002,050,0002,060,0002,070,0002,080,0002,090,0002,100,0002,110,0002,120,0002,130,000
Census2010
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
NM Estimated Population (GPS) Net Zero Migration (from DAPPS projection 2019)
8 year out‐migration = 19,277.80 or 0.94%
Approximate Net Migration 2002‐2018
‐10,000
‐5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,00020
02
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Population Change by County 2010‐2018
Note: Counties are listed from largest to smallest.
Source: UNM Geospatial and Population Studies (gps.unm.edu)
‐15.0%
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
State To
tal
Bernalillo
Doña
Ana
Santa Fe
Sand
oval
San Juan
Valencia
McKinley
Lea
Otero
Chaves
Eddy
Curry
Rio Arrib
a
Taos
Grant
San Migue
l
Cibo
la
Luna
Lincoln
Roosevelt
Los A
lamos
Socorro
Torran
ce
Colfa
x
Sierra
Qua
y
Mora
Gua
dalupe
Hida
lgo
Union
Catron
De Baca
Harding
NM Racial Composition 2010 to 2018EIGHT YEAR GROWTH BY RACE
9.3%
17.9%
11.3%
6.6%
‐6.6%‐10%
‐5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
STATE RACIAL COMPOSITION
10.7%
1.9% 2.8%
43.3%41.3%
11.5%
2.2% 3.1%
45.4%
37.9%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
2010 2018
Eight Year Growth By Age
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
0‐17 18‐64 65+
Aging PopulationK‐ 8 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT MEDICARE ENROLLMENT
050000
100000150000200000250000300000350000400000450000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
220000
222000
224000
226000
228000
230000
232000
234000
236000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Population Projections: Cohort Component Method
Population Size and Age StructurePopulation Size and Age Structure
Fertility TrendsFertility Trends
Mortality TrendsMortality Trends
Migration TrendsMigration Trends
Popn+x = Popn + Births –Deaths + Net Migration
Changing Age Structure
100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
New Mexico 2010 (shaded) & New Mexico 2018
Males Females
Changing Age Structure
100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
New Mexico 2010 (shaded) & New Mexico 2018
Males Females
/
Assumptions
FertilityWill fertility continue to decline as it has been? Will it begin to rise, or will it remain stable?• Assumption: Fertility will remain at current rates
MortalityLife expectancy has increased for much of the past century but has been fairly stable in recent years.• Will we continue to live longer, or will poorer health behaviors lead to shorter lives?
• Assumption: Mortality will remain at current rates
MigrationAssumption: Migration will continue at it’s net 2010‐2015 rate, thus capturing some in and some out migration.
Additional Note on Methodology‐Hispanic and non‐Hispanic populations projected separately‐Different rates‐Different age structure
Projected Growth Rate for New Mexico
‐1.50%
‐1.00%
‐0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Hispanic NonHispanic
Changing Age Structure
100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
New Mexico 2018 (shaded) & New Mexico 2030
Males Females
Changing Age Structure
100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000
0- 4
5- 9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
New Mexico 2018 (shaded) & New Mexico 2040
Males Females
Factors that could alter our trajectory
Increase in fertility among residents (not particularly
realistic)
Reduce out migration of young
people
Attract young people to the state
Increased births due to more people of childbearing age
Questions or Comments???
Jacqueline Miller, PhDSenior Research ScientistGeospatial and Population StudiesUniversity of New Mexicojmiller001@unm.edu505‐277‐0091
University of New MexicoGeospatial and Population Studies