Post on 17-Jan-2016
University of ManchesterOct. 2015
Kevin Anderson
web: kevinanderson.info
The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change
twitter: @KevinClimate
…is economic development possible without fossil fuels?
Nature Geoscience (doi:10.1038/ngeo2559) Mon. 12th Oct 2015
Anderson & Bows-LarkinBeyond ‘dangerous climate change
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal SocietyJan 2011
“… this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of where our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real hope, if it is to arise at all, will do so from a bare assessment of the scale of the challenge we now face.”
Latest science reports from the IPCC
Offered no solace to our fossil-fuel hungry world
The mitigation message has changed little in the last twenty five years
So what has changed?
200 billion tonnes of CO2 emitted since last IPCC report in 2007
Annual emissions ~60% higher than at time of the first report in 1990
Atmospheric CO2 levels higher than during past 800 thousand years
So what has changed?
& importantly
in terms of temperature rise,
explicit recognition it’s carbon budgets that matter,
not long-term (2050) targets
We repeatedly recommit to:
… make our fair contribution to…
“To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees
Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent
with science and on the basis of equity”
Copenhagen Accord, 2009
My headline conclusion:
Avoiding “dangerous climate change” (stabilisation at 2°C) remains a feasible goal of the international community
Just
My hypothesis: to deliver on 2°C
But surely
… we can do it with low-carbon energy supply?
(wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, etc.)
… we need deep & immediate reductions in energy demand
My hypothesis: to deliver on 2°C
In 2015, it’s all about timing!
Thinking about this ‘graphically’
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
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60
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80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
(IPCC
)
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
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GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
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& ce
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t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
(IPCC
)
R
IO E
arth
Sum
mit
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
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80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
(IPCC
)
R
IO E
arth
Sum
mit
K
yoto
Pro
toco
l ado
pted
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
(IPCC
)
R
IO E
arth
Sum
mit
K
yoto
Pro
toco
l ado
pted
K
.P c
omes
into
forc
e
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
(IPCC
)
R
IO E
arth
Sum
mit
K
yoto
Pro
toco
l ado
pted
Cop
enha
gen
Acco
rd
K
.P c
omes
into
forc
e
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
(IPCC
)
R
IO E
arth
Sum
mit
Cop
enha
gen
Acco
rd
Rio
+ 2
0
K
yoto
Pro
toco
l ado
pted
K
.P c
omes
into
forc
e
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
UN
Clim
ate
chan
ge p
anel
est
ablis
hed
(IPCC
)
R
IO E
arth
Sum
mit
Cop
enha
gen
Acco
rd
Rio
+ 2
0 … despite economic downturn, emissions continue to rise 2 to 3% p.a.
K
yoto
Pro
toco
l ado
pted
K
.P c
omes
into
forc
e
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
… & as we build hi-carbon
power stations Infrastructures buildings aircraft & ships
Lock
-in
30
to 1
00
+ y
rs
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
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80
GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
men
t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
i.e. 4°C to 6°C by 2100
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
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GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
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om fo
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& ce
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t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
Yet for a “likely” chance of
2°C
So recent history supports the IEA view
… that the CO2 trend “is perfectly in line with a
temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet.”
Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist
… but what about 2°C?
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
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GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
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de fr
om fo
ssil
fuel
& ce
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t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
4°C to 6°C
“likely” chance of 2°C
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
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20
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GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
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de fr
om fo
ssil
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& ce
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t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
Too early for new
low carbonsupply &
demand
Reduce Demand
Supply
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
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20
30
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GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
ioxi
de fr
om fo
ssil
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& ce
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t (Gt
CO2y
r-1)
But this is a global analysis
& demand
Reduce Demand
Supply
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
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GCP new data
YEAR
Carb
on d
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& ce
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CO2y
r-1)
& demand
Reduce Demand
Supply
“To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees
Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with
science and on the basis of equity”
Assuming poorer (non-Annex 1) nations:
1. Collectively peak their emissions by 2025
2. Then rapidly increase mitigation to ~10% p.a. by 2035
… then, for 2°C, wealthy (Annex 1) nations require:
At least 10% reduction in emissions year on year from now,
… equivalent to:
40% reduction by ~2018 (c.f. 1990)
70% ~2024
90% ~2030
i.e. RADICAL EMISSION REDUCTIONS
If 2°C is too challenging
… what about a 4°C future
Global impacts: 4°C
+8°C
Europe
+6°C
China
+10-12°C
N. America
Hottest days
… add to heat-wave temps’
Global impacts: 4°C
Sea level rise50-200cm rise, higher
in low latitudes
Global impacts: 4°C
Food crops
~40%
reduction in
maize, wheat &
rice yields in low
latitudes
There is a widespread view that 4°C is… Incompatible with an organised global community
Beyond ‘adaptation’
Devastating to eco-systems
Unlikely to be stable (‘tipping points)
… consequently …
4°C should be avoided at ‘all’ costs
Returning to 2°C … is it still a viable goal?
Hypothesis: yes
Equity/behaviour - a small group to make radical & early reductions
Technology - demand side can deliver early & large reductions
Growth - there are alternative measures of a good life
… just
Equity: Pareto’s 80:20 rule
80% of something relates to … 20% of those involved
~80% of emissions from ~20% of population
run this 3 times
~50% of emissions from ~1% of population
Or more realistically:
~40% to 60% from ~1% to 5%
who are the high-emitters?
Climate scientists OECD (& other) academics Anyone who annually takes a long-haul flight or two …
2°C mitigation is principally a short-term challenge;
i.e. really now to 2025 - so is mostly about the few not the many
… it is a consumption and not a population issue!
Technology
Efficient petrol/diesel cars
A++ refrigerators
EU & US ~12-15% of emissions Sector’s emissions claimed to be intractable ~270 petrol/diesel models <100gCO2/km
… at no price premium
2/3 of car travel is by vehicles 8yrs old or younger
Private road transport (Cars)
So in this ‘intractable’ sector:
- With no additional capital cost- Reduced operating cost- Identical infrastructure- Same employment & companies
50% to 70% reduction in ~10yrs
Standards & existing petrol/diesel cars
A++ refrigerator uses 80% less energy than an A rated
Phased replacement of all A-rated (& below) with A++
CO2 saving of ~60% in 10 years
Refrigeration
Welfare: health, life expectancy
Literacy rates
Employment/income
Safety & security
Equity; time with family & friend's
Growth converts the heterogeneous into the homogeneous (£,€,HUF)
In itself it has no meaningful value
Growth: but what really matters?
Growth: a misguided proxy?
the economist’s economy has stalled!
self-regulated markets have failed to self regulate
Faced with systemic issues
- neoclassical (‘free’ market) economics is in disarray
- incremental approaches to climate change have not delivered
We have an unprecedented opportunity to think differently
A Radical Plan for 2°C – 2 phases
1. Radical reductions in energy demand from now to ~2030
2. Marshall plan build programme of low-carbon energy supply
… with 100% penetration by 2030-40
We must escape the reductionist shackles of a twentieth century
mind-set if we’re ever to resolve the systemic challenges of the
twenty-first century
This will demand leadership, courage, innovative thinking, engaged
teams & difficult choices
Ultimately …
“at every level the greatest obstacle to transforming the world is that we lack the clarity and imagination to conceive that it could be different.”
Robert Unger
and a message of hope to finish …
Thank you
University of Manchester Oct. 2015
Kevin Anderson
web: kevinanderson.info
twitter: @KevinClimate