Post on 25-Feb-2016
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Understanding the Labor Market in a Deflationary
Economic Context
Paul E. HarringtonCenter for Labor Market Studies
Northeastern UniversityBoston, Massachusetts
January 2009
A Thumbnail Sketch of the Economic Crisis
An Economy out of BalanceTotal GDP 2000 to 2007 $92.5 TrillionTotal Purchases of G&S $97.0 Trillion
Difference -$4.5 Trillion
How did we purchase more than we produced?
Purchased Goods from OverseasU.S. Balance of Trade Deficit increased by about $4.5 Trillion
How did we pay for excess consumption?
Household debt doubled by $6.8 trillionBetween 2000 and 2005 average home price doubledAlmost half of this debt secured by mortgagesSavings rate fell to zero
A Housing Bubble “Market Values Fluctuate: Debt is Forever”
Unlike equity bubbles housing bubbles quickly convert to spendingBanks “make your home work for you”Out of $6.8 Trillion increase in debt, $4.2 Trillion NOT spent on housingConsumer electronics/autos/trucks
Who lent us the money?
China, oil producers including Russia and Saudi ArabiaThese nations purchased U.S. Treasuries-safe and secureHeld assets in U.S. banks—swelling domestic banking reserves
How did this fuel borrowing and spending?
Large reserves fueled rapid growth in money supply
Fractional reserve lending system meant that growth in reserves resulted in large growth in money supply via the money multiplier –result was low interest rates
Federal Reserve Response
Fed did nothingGreenspan: World has entered into a “new economic paradigm (rejection of liquidity preference theory and acceptance of the efficient market theory)Prices set in asset and housing markets are ‘correct’
Fed continued
Absence of inflation over 2000 to 2005 led to fed to inactionFed supported rising asset pricesPermitted rapid expansion in money supply and declining real interest ratesFueled further increases in housing and stock markets (asset inflation)
How did housing bubble burst?
Mortgage loans made to people with no hope of making payments
1. Sub-prime2. Home equity loans based on
assumption of perpetually rising housing prices
3. Teaser rates4. Home values collapse -down 25
Percent since mid 2006
What’s different about this downturn?
Rise in asset values are based on financiers making increasingly risky loansBanks developed new ways of sell off these risky loans into world markets
CDOs Credit Default Swaps
Estimated $30 Trillion losses in wealth across the world
Problem is now well beyond mortgage backed securities and housing market
Commercial lendingCredit card lendingAuto lendingAll suffering rising default problemsSo banking system sharply reduces lending—money multiplier collapses—liquidity trap
Financial meltdown has led to deflation
Deflation is a downward pressure on prices that sharply reduces the level of output, employment and incomeDeflation is a self-reinforcing downward spiral based on future expectations about prices that reflect overall economic conditions
What is the Current Economic Situation? Global Demand for Goods and Services Falling
Sharply 4th qtr GDP in Industrialized Nations fell 6 to 7
Percent annual average pace. 1st qtr 2009 GDP is expected to fall at same
pace.
Asset Values Continue to Decline Sharp decline in housing values—25 percent
decline in mean price level Additional 20 percent decline expected this
year Equity assets declined by 50 percent since
peak Estimated that about 1/3rd of value of world
wealth wiped out last year U.S. wealth value fell by about $11 trillion in
2008
Deflationary Cycle Decline in value of assets leads to Increased desire and intensity of savings—
depress demand growth Increased savings rate (now over 5%) Decreased consumption (retail sales
contracted by 28 % apr in 4th qtr 2008) Corporate profits fall sharply—huge banking
sector losses-rise of zombie banks Continuing reductions in consumption make
expanding profits next to impossible
…GDP Falls Declines in C+I results in GDP declines Profit declines result in cut-backs in production Lay-offs rise sharply, job vacancies fall
sharplhours Accelerating rate of job losses Rising unemployment Sharp reductions in hours of work per week,
increase in part-time work for economic reasons
…Decline Accelerates Employment losses lead to real income
declines Households make effort to raise savings rate Expectations of future prices of asset values
fall—decrease purchases of assets-further reduces their price
Values of housing declines Value of equities declines These paper declines feed back into a new
round of cutbacks in the real economy- an adverse feedback loop or deflationary spiral
Phases of Downturn August 2007- March 2008:market cap of banks
insurance companies begins to erode Monthly losses in value average $150 billion (Bear Stearns 3/2008)
March to Sept 2008: Losses mounted to $260 billion per month (Lehman bankruptcy 9/2008)
September 2008 to January 2009: Losses in value of banks and insurance companies explodes– average decline of $ 660 billion permonth
Asset write downs in global finance about $5 trillion
Job Market Developments Recession begins in December 2007 Payroll
employment declines average 137,000 per month over the period
August to November job losses accelerate to 436,000 per month
December to February job losses in U.S, average 662,000
Expectations of this months reports suggest similarly large
CES Total Nonfarm Employment by Region, Trough to Peak (Q2 2003 to Q4 2007), Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands
Region Q2 2003 Q4 2007Absolute Change
Relative Change
Kansas 1,311.3 1,388.2 76.9 5.9%Michigan 4,415.9 4,247.6 -168.3 -3.8%Ohio 5,399.5 5,424.1 24.6 0.5%Illinois 5,810.1 5,990.6 180.5 3.1%Indiana 2,889.3 2,988.7 99.4 3.4%Wisconsin 2,775.6 2,889.0 113.4 4.1%Minnesota 2,660.9 2,774.2 113.3 4.3%Iowa 1,436.0 1,525.5 89.6 6.2%Nebraska 911.1 963.4 52.2 5.7%Missouri 2,678.6 2,799.8 121.2 4.5%Heartland 30,288.3 30,991.2 702.9 2.3%US 129,842.3 138,000.3 8,158.0 6.3%
CES Total Nonfarm Employment by Region, Peak to Present (Q4 2007 to Q4 2008), Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands
Region Q4 2007 Q4 2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Kansas 1,388.2 1,390.3 2.0 0.1%Michigan 4,247.6 4,083.8 -163.8 -3.9%Ohio 5,424.1 5,305.5 -118.7 -2.2%Illinois 5,990.6 5,884.1 -106.5 -1.8%Indiana 2,988.7 2,928.2 -60.5 -2.0%Wisconsin 2,889.0 2,849.5 -39.4 -1.4%Minnesota 2,774.2 2,736.8 -37.4 -1.3%Iowa 1,525.5 1,516.6 -8.9 -0.6%Nebraska 963.4 964.4 1.1 0.1%Missouri 2,799.8 2,780.9 -18.9 -0.7%Heartland 30,991.2 30,440.1 -551.1 -1.8%US 138,000.3 135,727.0 -2,273.3 -1.6%
CES Total Nonfarm Employment by Region, Q1 2001 to Q4 2008, Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands
Region Q1 2001 Q4 2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Kansas 1,352.4 1,390.3 37.9 2.8%Michigan 4,610.6 4,083.8 -526.8 -11.4%Ohio 5,599.6 5,305.5 -294.1 -5.3%Illinois 6,047.7 5,884.1 -163.6 -2.7%Indiana 2,960.4 2,928.2 -32.2 -1.1%Wisconsin 2,836.4 2,849.5 13.1 0.5%Minnesota 2,708.3 2,736.8 28.5 1.1%Iowa 1,475.0 1,516.6 41.6 2.8%Nebraska 915.6 964.4 48.8 5.3%Missouri 2,744.1 2,780.9 36.9 1.3%Heartland 31,250.1 30,440.1 -810.0 -2.6%US 132,499.7 135,727.0 3,227.3 2.4%
CES Heartland Region Supersector Employment Peak to Trough (Q1 2001 to Q2 2003), Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands
Supersector Q1 2001 Q2 2003Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm 31,250.1 30,288.3 -961.8 -3.1%Mining and Logging 52.7 59.3 6.6 12.6%Construction 1,427.2 1,393.9 -33.3 -2.3%Manufacturing 5,214.7 4,522.3 -692.3 -13.3%Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 6,283.2 5,969.0 -314.2 -5.0%Information 696.5 615.5 -81.0 -11.6%Financial Activities 1,758.8 1,796.6 37.8 2.2%Professional and Business Services 3,567.5 3,380.5 -187.0 -5.2%Education and Health Services 3,687.8 3,891.3 203.5 5.5%Leisure and Hospitality 2,665.4 2,697.5 32.2 1.2%Other Services 1,268.9 1,273.2 4.3 0.3%Government 4,616.4 4,689.1 72.7 1.6%
CES Heartland Region Supersector Employment Trough to Peak (Q2 2003 to Q4 2007), Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands
Supersector Q2 2003 Q4 2007Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm 30,288.3 30,991.2 702.9 2.3%Mining and Logging 59.3 63.1 3.8 6.4%Construction 1,393.9 1,385.4 -8.5 -0.6%Manufacturing 4,522.3 4,243.8 -278.5 -6.2%Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 5,969.0 6,037.5 68.5 1.1%Information 615.5 572.9 -42.5 -6.9%Financial Activities 1,796.6 1,797.9 1.3 0.1%Professional and Business Services 3,380.5 3,745.3 364.8 10.8%Education and Health Services 3,891.3 4,324.3 433.0 11.1%Leisure and Hospitality 2,697.5 2,850.6 153.1 5.7%Other Services 1,273.2 1,292.7 19.5 1.5%Government 4,689.1 4,677.7 -11.5 -0.2%
CES Heartland Region Supersector Employment Peak to Present (Q4 2007 to Q4 2008), Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands
Supersector Q4 2007 Q4 2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm 30,991.2 30,440.1 -551.1 -1.8%Mining and Logging 63.1 63.9 0.8 1.3%Construction 1,385.4 1,272.1 -113.4 -8.2%Manufacturing 4,243.8 4,029.6 -214.2 -5.0%Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 6,037.5 5,893.5 -143.9 -2.4%Information 572.9 559.9 -13.1 -2.3%Financial Activities 1,797.9 1,759.5 -38.5 -2.1%Professional and Business Services 3,745.3 3,613.6 -131.7 -3.5%Education and Health Services 4,324.3 4,435.8 111.5 2.6%Leisure and Hospitality 2,850.6 2,813.6 -37.0 -1.3%Other Services 1,292.7 1,289.6 -3.1 -0.2%Government 4,677.7 4,709.1 31.4 0.7%
CES Heartland Region Supersector Employment Q1 2001 to Q4 2008, Seasonally Adjusted, in thousands
Supersector Q1 2001 Q4 2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm 31,250.1 30,440.1 -810.0 -2.6%Mining and Logging 52.7 63.9 11.2 21.3%Construction 1,427.2 1,272.1 -155.2 -10.9%Manufacturing 5,214.7 4,029.6 -1,185.1 -22.7%Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 6,283.2 5,893.5 -389.6 -6.2%Information 696.5 559.9 -136.6 -19.6%Financial Activities 1,758.8 1,759.5 0.7 0.0%Professional and Business Services 3,567.5 3,613.6 46.1 1.3%Education and Health Services 3,687.8 4,435.8 748.0 20.3%Leisure and Hospitality 2,665.4 2,813.6 148.2 5.6%Other Services 1,268.9 1,289.6 20.7 1.6%Government 4,616.4 4,709.1 92.7 2.0%
Changes in Nonfarm Industry Employment in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 523,727 515,495 -8,232 -1.6%Mining 68,863 42,615 -26,248 -38.1%Construction 2,088,231 1,977,185 -111,046 -5.3%Manufacturing 5,175,250 5,035,264 -139,986 -2.7%Wholesale and retail trade 4,812,799 4,715,462 -97,337 -2.0%Transportation and utilities 1,614,062 1,777,272 163,210 10.1%Information 817,900 685,728 -132,172 -16.2%Financial activities 2,289,545 2,166,800 -122,745 -5.4%Professional and business services 2,882,765 3,061,203 178,438 6.2%Educational and health services 6,965,474 7,195,204 229,730 3.3%Leisure and hospitality 2,463,918 2,491,201 27,283 1.1%Other services 1,351,807 1,381,603 29,796 2.2%Public administration 1,105,787 1,120,727 14,940 1.4%Total 32,160,128 32,165,759 5,631 0.0%
LAUS Changes in Employment Dec 2007 to Jan 2009, Seasonally Adjusted
Region Dec-07 Jan-09 Absolute Change Relative Change
Kansas 1,427,687 1,420,834 -6,853 -0.5%
Michigan 4,624,946 4,299,405 -325,541 -7.0%
Ohio 5,627,276 5,434,237 -193,039 -3.4%
Illinois 6,356,276 6,082,800 -273,476 -4.3%
Indiana 3,071,042 2,950,371 -120,671 -3.9%
Wisconsin 2,947,877 2,884,132 -63,745 -2.2%
Minnesota 2,772,672 2,719,124 -53,548 -1.9%
Iowa 1,607,583 1,592,056 -15,527 -1.0%
Nebraska 960,377 947,882 -12,495 -1.3%
Missouri 2,856,858 2,767,195 -89,663 -3.1%
Heartland 32,252,594 31,098,036 -1,154,558 -3.6%
US 146,294,000 142,099,000 -4,195,000 -2.9%
LAUS Changes in Unemployment Dec 2007 to Jan 2009, Seasonally Adjusted
Region Dec-07 Jan-09 Absolute Change Relative Change
Kansas 61,694 87,358 25,664 41.6%
Michigan 363,738 564,982 201,244 55.3%
Ohio 344,969 524,049 179,080 51.9%
Illinois 374,597 518,636 144,039 38.5%
Indiana 145,878 300,692 154,814 106.1%
Wisconsin 137,541 215,403 77,862 56.6%
Minnesota 139,035 222,189 83,154 59.8%
Iowa 64,361 80,609 16,248 25.2%
Nebraska 26,338 42,783 16,445 62.4%
Missouri 160,466 241,314 80,848 50.4%
Heartland 1,818,617 2,798,015 979,398 53.9%
US 7,541,000 11,616,000 4,075,000 54.0%
LAUS Changes in the Unemployment Rate Dec 2007 to Jan 2009, Seasonally Adjusted
Region Dec-07 Jan-09 Absolute Change Relative Change
Kansas 4.1 5.8 1.7 41.5%
Michigan 7.3 11.6 4.3 58.9%
Ohio 5.8 8.8 3 51.7%
Illinois 5.6 7.9 2.3 41.1%
Indiana 4.5 9.2 4.7 104.4%
Wisconsin 4.5 6.9 2.4 53.3%
Minnesota 4.8 7.6 2.8 58.3%
Iowa 3.8 4.8 1 26.3%
Nebraska 2.7 4.3 1.6 59.3%
Missouri 5.3 8 2.7 50.9%
Heartland 5.3 8.3 2.9 54.6%
US 4.9 7.6 2.7 55.1%
Changes in Nonfarm Industry Employment in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-
Jan08 AvgDec08-
Jan09 AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 515,495 524,757 9,262 1.8%Mining 42,615 60,195 17,580 41.3%Construction 1,977,185 1,886,577 -90,608 -4.6%Manufacturing 5,035,264 4,353,801 -681,463 -13.5%Wholesale and retail trade 4,715,462 4,473,037 -242,425 -5.1%Transportation and utilities 1,777,272 1,650,020 -127,252 -7.2%Information 685,728 622,220 -63,508 -9.3%Financial activities 2,166,800 2,091,225 -75,575 -3.5%Professional and business services 3,061,203 2,933,443 -127,760 -4.2%Educational and health services 7,195,204 7,479,935 284,731 4.0%Leisure and hospitality 2,491,201 2,499,364 8,163 0.3%Other services 1,381,603 1,474,682 93,079 6.7%Public administration 1,120,727 1,205,771 85,044 7.6%Total 32,165,759 31,255,027 -910,732 -2.8%
Changes in Occupation Employment in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
Management, business, and financial occupations 4,738,837 4,660,839 -77,998 -1.6%
Professional and related occupations 6,368,251 6,589,191 220,940 3.5%
Service occupations 5,102,298 5,063,490 -38,808 -0.8%
Sales and related occupations 3,757,976 3,516,858 -241,118 -6.4%
Office and administrative support occupations 4,401,331 4,433,160 31,829 0.7%
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 150,514 148,646 -1,868 -1.2%
Construction and extraction occupations 1,629,757 1,573,414 -56,343 -3.5%
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 1,189,464 1,155,079 -34,385 -2.9%
Production occupations 2,707,435 2,844,334 136,899 5.1%
Transportation and material moving occupations 2,114,264 2,180,747 66,483 3.1%
Total 32,160,127 32,165,758 5,631 0.0%
Changes in Nonfarm Industry Employment in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 523,727 524,757 1,030 0.2%Mining 68,863 60,195 -8,668 -12.6%Construction 2,088,231 1,886,577 -201,654 -9.7%Manufacturing 5,175,250 4,353,801 -821,449 -15.9%Wholesale and retail trade 4,812,799 4,473,037 -339,762 -7.1%Transportation and utilities 1,614,062 1,650,020 35,958 2.2%Information 817,900 622,220 -195,680 -23.9%Financial activities 2,289,545 2,091,225 -198,320 -8.7%Professional and business services 2,882,765 2,933,443 50,678 1.8%Educational and health services 6,965,474 7,479,935 514,461 7.4%Leisure and hospitality 2,463,918 2,499,364 35,446 1.4%Other services 1,351,807 1,474,682 122,875 9.1%Public administration 1,105,787 1,205,771 99,984 9.0%Total 32,160,128 31,255,027 -905,101 -2.8%
Changes in Occupation Employment in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-
Jan08 AvgDec08-
Jan09 AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
Management, business, and financial occupations 4,660,839 4,588,399 -72,440 -1.6%
Professional and related occupations 6,589,191 6,717,764 128,573 2.0%
Service occupations 5,063,490 5,255,124 191,634 3.8%
Sales and related occupations 3,516,858 3,305,088 -211,770 -6.0%
Office and administrative support occupations 4,433,160 4,153,106 -280,054 -6.3%
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 148,646 172,800 24,154 16.2%
Construction and extraction occupations 1,573,414 1,402,765 -170,649 -10.8%
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 1,155,079 1,122,210 -32,869 -2.8%
Production occupations 2,844,334 2,405,911 -438,423 -15.4%
Transportation and material moving occupations 2,180,747 2,131,860 -48,887 -2.2%
Total 32,165,758 31,255,027 -910,731 -2.8%
Changes in Occupation Employment in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-
Jan07 AvgDec08-
Jan09 AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
Management, business, and financial occupations 4,738,837 4,588,399 -150,438 -3.2%
Professional and related occupations 6,368,251 6,717,764 349,513 5.5%
Service occupations 5,102,298 5,255,124 152,826 3.0%
Sales and related occupations 3,757,976 3,305,088 -452,888 -12.1%
Office and administrative support occupations 4,401,331 4,153,106 -248,225 -5.6%
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 150,514 172,800 22,286 14.8%
Construction and extraction occupations 1,629,757 1,402,765 -226,992 -13.9%
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 1,189,464 1,122,210 -67,254 -5.7%
Production occupations 2,707,435 2,405,911 -301,524 -11.1%
Transportation and material moving occupations 2,114,264 2,131,860 17,596 0.8%
Total 32,160,127 31,255,027 -905,100 -2.8%
Changes in Employment by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
Male 17,002,983 16,829,987 -172,996 -1.0%
Female 15,157,146 15,335,771 178,625 1.2%
Total 32,160,129 32,165,758 5,629 0.0%
Changes in Employment by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
Male 16,829,987 16,067,464 -762,523 -4.5%
Female 15,335,771 15,187,563 -148,208 -1.0%
Total 32,165,758 31,255,027 -910,731 -2.8%
Changes in Employment by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
Male 17,002,983 16,067,464 -935,519 -5.5%
Female 15,157,146 15,187,563 30,417 0.2%
Total 32,160,129 31,255,027 -905,102 -2.8%
Changes in Unemployment by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
Male 1,103,645 1,123,247 19,602 1.8%
Female 716,779 761,707 44,928 6.3%
Total 1,820,424 1,884,954 64,530 3.5%
Changes in Unemployment by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
Male 1,123,247 1,723,496 600,249 53.4%
Female 761,707 1,016,645 254,938 33.5%
Total 1,884,954 2,740,141 855,187 45.4%
Changes in Unemployment by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
Male 1,103,645 1,723,496 619,851 56.2%
Female 716,779 1,016,645 299,866 41.8%
Total 1,820,424 2,740,141 919,717 50.5%
Changes in Labor Force by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
Male 18,106,628 17,953,234 -153,394 -0.8%
Female 15,873,925 16,097,478 223,553 1.4%
Total 33,980,553 34,050,712 70,159 0.2%
Changes in Labor Force by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
Male 17,953,234 17,790,960 -162,274 -0.9%
Female 16,097,478 16,204,208 106,730 0.7%
Total 34,050,712 33,995,168 -55,544 -0.2%
Changes in Labor Force by Gender in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
Male 18,106,628 17,790,960 -315,668 -1.7%
Female 15,873,925 16,204,208 330,283 2.1%
Total 33,980,553 33,995,168 14,615 0.0%
Changes in Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 1,466,403 1,370,765 -95,638 -6.5%
20-24 Years 3,120,768 2,947,978 -172,790 -5.5%
25-34 Years 6,878,391 6,641,831 -236,560 -3.4%
35-54 Years 15,176,846 15,456,453 279,607 1.8%
55+ Years 5,517,720 5,748,731 231,011 4.2%
Total 32,160,128 32,165,758 5,630 0.0%
Changes in Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 1,370,765 1,304,350 -66,415 -4.8%
20-24 Years 2,947,978 2,894,654 -53,324 -1.8%
25-34 Years 6,641,831 6,318,763 -323,068 -4.9%
35-54 Years 15,456,453 14,677,605 -778,848 -5.0%
55+ Years 5,748,731 6,059,656 310,925 5.4%
Total 32,165,758 31,255,028 -910,730 -2.8%
Changes in Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 1,466,403 1,304,350 -162,053 -11.1%
20-24 Years 3,120,768 2,894,654 -226,114 -7.2%
25-34 Years 6,878,391 6,318,763 -559,628 -8.1%
35-54 Years 15,176,846 14,677,605 -499,241 -3.3%
55+ Years 5,517,720 6,059,656 541,936 9.8%
Total 32,160,128 31,255,028 -905,100 -2.8%
Changes in Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 245,360 311,749 66,389 27.1%
20-24 Years 268,105 283,014 14,909 5.6%
25-34 Years 453,233 407,524 -45,709 -10.1%
35-54 Years 631,474 683,847 52,373 8.3%
55+ Years 222,251 198,819 -23,432 -10.5%
Total 1,820,423 1,884,953 64,530 3.5%
Changes in Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 311,749 291,134 -20,615 -6.6%
20-24 Years 283,014 444,342 161,328 57.0%
25-34 Years 407,524 552,396 144,872 35.5%
35-54 Years 683,847 1,127,795 443,948 64.9%
55+ Years 198,819 324,474 125,655 63.2%
Total 1,884,953 2,740,141 855,188 45.4%
Changes in Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 245,360 291,134 45,774 18.7%
20-24 Years 268,105 444,342 176,237 65.7%
25-34 Years 453,233 552,396 99,163 21.9%
35-54 Years 631,474 1,127,795 496,321 78.6%
55+ Years 222,251 324,474 102,223 46.0%
Total 1,820,423 2,740,141 919,718 50.5%
Changes in Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 1,711,763 1,682,514 -29,249 -1.7%
20-24 Years 3,388,873 3,230,992 -157,881 -4.7%
25-34 Years 7,331,624 7,049,355 -282,269 -3.9%
35-54 Years 15,808,320 16,140,300 331,980 2.1%
55+ Years 5,739,971 5,947,550 207,579 3.6%
Total 33,980,551 34,050,711 70,160 0.2%
Changes in Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 1,682,514 1,595,484 -87,030 -5.2%
20-24 Years 3,230,992 3,338,996 108,004 3.3%
25-34 Years 7,049,355 6,871,159 -178,196 -2.5%
35-54 Years 16,140,300 15,805,400 -334,900 -2.1%
55+ Years 5,947,550 6,384,130 436,580 7.3%
Total 34,050,711 33,995,169 -55,542 -0.2%
Changes in Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 1,711,763 1,595,484 -116,279 -6.8%
20-24 Years 3,388,873 3,338,996 -49,877 -1.5%
25-34 Years 7,331,624 6,871,159 -460,465 -6.3%
35-54 Years 15,808,320 15,805,400 -2,920 0.0%
55+ Years 5,739,971 6,384,130 644,159 11.2%
Total 33,980,551 33,995,169 14,618 0.0%
Changes in Male Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 701,528 645,059 -56,469 -8.0%
20-24 Years 1,579,068 1,517,035 -62,033 -3.9%
25-34 Years 3,722,253 3,512,705 -209,548 -5.6%
35-54 Years 8,067,901 8,140,336 72,435 0.9%
55+ Years 2,932,232 3,014,851 82,619 2.8%
Total 17,002,982 16,829,986 -172,996 -1.0%
Changes in Male Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 645,059 594,262 -50,797 -7.9%
20-24 Years 1,517,035 1,488,944 -28,091 -1.9%
25-34 Years 3,512,705 3,276,720 -235,985 -6.7%
35-54 Years 8,140,336 7,604,875 -535,461 -6.6%
55+ Years 3,014,851 3,102,664 87,813 2.9%
Total 16,829,986 16,067,465 -762,521 -4.5%
Changes in Male Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 701,528 594,262 -107,266 -15.3%
20-24 Years 1,579,068 1,488,944 -90,124 -5.7%
25-34 Years 3,722,253 3,276,720 -445,533 -12.0%
35-54 Years 8,067,901 7,604,875 -463,026 -5.7%
55+ Years 2,932,232 3,102,664 170,432 5.8%
Total 17,002,982 16,067,465 -935,517 -5.5%
Changes in Male Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 129,556 179,323 49,767 38.4%
20-24 Years 174,109 162,335 -11,774 -6.8%
25-34 Years 278,823 260,854 -17,969 -6.4%
35-54 Years 392,226 406,202 13,976 3.6%
55+ Years 128,930 114,534 -14,396 -11.2%
Total 1,103,644 1,123,248 19,604 1.8%
Changes in Male Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 179,323 177,273 -2,050 -1.1%
20-24 Years 162,335 292,689 130,354 80.3%
25-34 Years 260,854 346,819 85,965 33.0%
35-54 Years 406,202 718,358 312,156 76.8%
55+ Years 114,534 188,357 73,823 64.5%
Total 1,123,248 1,723,496 600,248 53.4%
Changes in Male Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 129,556 177,273 47,717 36.8%
20-24 Years 174,109 292,689 118,580 68.1%
25-34 Years 278,823 346,819 67,996 24.4%
35-54 Years 392,226 718,358 326,132 83.1%
55+ Years 128,930 188,357 59,427 46.1%
Total 1,103,644 1,723,496 619,852 56.2%
Changes in Male Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 831,084 824,382 -6,702 -0.8%
20-24 Years 1,753,177 1,679,370 -73,807 -4.2%
25-34 Years 4,001,076 3,773,559 -227,517 -5.7%
35-54 Years 8,460,127 8,546,538 86,411 1.0%
55+ Years 3,061,162 3,129,385 68,223 2.2%
Total 18,106,626 17,953,234 -153,392 -0.8%
Changes in Male Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 824,382 771,535 -52,847 -6.4%
20-24 Years 1,679,370 1,781,633 102,263 6.1%
25-34 Years 3,773,559 3,623,539 -150,020 -4.0%
35-54 Years 8,546,538 8,323,233 -223,305 -2.6%
55+ Years 3,129,385 3,291,021 161,636 5.2%
Total 17,953,234 17,790,961 -162,273 -0.9%
Changes in Male Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 831,084 771,535 -59,549 -7.2%
20-24 Years 1,753,177 1,781,633 28,456 1.6%
25-34 Years 4,001,076 3,623,539 -377,537 -9.4%
35-54 Years 8,460,127 8,323,233 -136,894 -1.6%
55+ Years 3,061,162 3,291,021 229,859 7.5%
Total 18,106,626 17,790,961 -315,665 -1.7%
Changes in Female Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 764,875 725,706 -39,169 -5.1%
20-24 Years 1,541,700 1,430,943 -110,757 -7.2%
25-34 Years 3,156,138 3,129,125 -27,013 -0.9%
35-54 Years 7,108,945 7,316,117 207,172 2.9%
55+ Years 2,585,488 2,733,879 148,391 5.7%
Total 15,157,146 15,335,770 178,624 1.2%
Changes in Female Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 725,706 710,088 -15,618 -2.2%
20-24 Years 1,430,943 1,405,710 -25,233 -1.8%
25-34 Years 3,129,125 3,042,043 -87,082 -2.8%
35-54 Years 7,316,117 7,072,730 -243,387 -3.3%
55+ Years 2,733,879 2,956,992 223,113 8.2%
Total 15,335,770 15,187,563 -148,207 -1.0%
Changes in Female Employment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 764,875 710,088 -54,787 -7.2%
20-24 Years 1,541,700 1,405,710 -135,990 -8.8%
25-34 Years 3,156,138 3,042,043 -114,095 -3.6%
35-54 Years 7,108,945 7,072,730 -36,215 -0.5%
55+ Years 2,585,488 2,956,992 371,504 14.4%
Total 15,157,146 15,187,563 30,417 0.2%
Changes in Female Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 115,804 132,426 16,622 14.4%
20-24 Years 93,996 120,680 26,684 28.4%
25-34 Years 174,410 146,671 -27,739 -15.9%
35-54 Years 239,248 277,645 38,397 16.0%
55+ Years 93,321 84,285 -9,036 -9.7%
Total 716,779 761,707 44,928 6.3%
Changes in Female Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 132,426 113,861 -18,565 -14.0%
20-24 Years 120,680 151,653 30,973 25.7%
25-34 Years 146,671 205,576 58,905 40.2%
35-54 Years 277,645 409,437 131,792 47.5%
55+ Years 84,285 136,117 51,832 61.5%
Total 761,707 1,016,644 254,937 33.5%
Changes in Female Unemployment by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 115,804 113,861 -1,943 -1.7%
20-24 Years 93,996 151,653 57,657 61.3%
25-34 Years 174,410 205,576 31,166 17.9%
35-54 Years 239,248 409,437 170,189 71.1%
55+ Years 93,321 136,117 42,796 45.9%
Total 716,779 1,016,644 299,865 41.8%
Changes in Female Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 880,679 858,132 -22,547 -2.6%
20-24 Years 1,635,696 1,551,623 -84,073 -5.1%
25-34 Years 3,330,548 3,275,796 -54,752 -1.6%
35-54 Years 7,348,193 7,593,762 245,569 3.3%
55+ Years 2,678,809 2,818,164 139,355 5.2%
Total 15,873,925 16,097,477 223,552 1.4%
Changes in Female Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 858,132 823,949 -34,183 -4.0%
20-24 Years 1,551,623 1,557,363 5,740 0.4%
25-34 Years 3,275,796 3,247,619 -28,177 -0.9%
35-54 Years 7,593,762 7,482,167 -111,595 -1.5%
55+ Years 2,818,164 3,093,109 274,945 9.8%
Total 16,097,477 16,204,207 106,730 0.7%
Changes in Female Labor Force by Age in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 Years 880,679 823,949 -56,730 -6.4%
20-24 Years 1,635,696 1,557,363 -78,333 -4.8%
25-34 Years 3,330,548 3,247,619 -82,929 -2.5%
35-54 Years 7,348,193 7,482,167 133,974 1.8%
55+ Years 2,678,809 3,093,109 414,300 15.5%
Total 15,873,925 16,204,207 330,282 2.1%
Changes in Employment by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
White 26,587,164 26,682,954 95,790 0.4%
Black 2,667,487 2,585,120 -82,367 -3.1%
Asian or Pacific Islander 844,172 773,347 -70,825 -8.4%
Hispanic 1,730,462 1,753,869 23,407 1.4%
Other 330,845 370,468 39,623 12.0%
Total 32,160,130 32,165,758 5,628 0.0%
Changes in Employment by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
White 26,682,954 25,836,549 -846,405 -3.2%
Black 2,585,120 2,520,703 -64,417 -2.5%
Asian or Pacific Islander 773,347 814,241 40,894 5.3%
Hispanic 1,753,869 1,704,819 -49,050 -2.8%
Other 370,468 378,715 8,247 2.2%
Total 32,165,758 31,255,027 -910,731 -2.8%
Changes in Employment by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
White 26,587,164 25,836,549 -750,615 -2.8%
Black 2,667,487 2,520,703 -146,784 -5.5%
Asian or Pacific Islander 844,172 814,241 -29,931 -3.5%
Hispanic 1,730,462 1,704,819 -25,643 -1.5%
Other 330,845 378,715 47,870 14.5%
Total 32,160,130 31,255,027 -905,103 -2.8%
Changes in Unemployment by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
White 1,291,748 1,344,102 52,354 4.1%
Black 337,174 354,522 17,348 5.1%
Asian or Pacific Islander 36,614 25,669 -10,945 -29.9%
Hispanic 113,285 130,734 17,449 15.4%
Other 41,603 29,926 -11,677 -28.1%
Total 1,820,424 1,884,953 64,529 3.5%
Changes in Unemployment by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
White 1,344,102 2,040,760 696,658 51.8%
Black 354,522 401,349 46,827 13.2%
Asian or Pacific Islander 25,669 48,680 23,011 89.6%
Hispanic 130,734 202,868 72,134 55.2%
Other 29,926 46,483 16,557 55.3%
Total 1,884,953 2,740,140 855,187 45.4%
Changes in Unemployment by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
White 1,291,748 2,040,760 749,012 58.0%
Black 337,174 401,349 64,175 19.0%
Asian or Pacific Islander 36,614 48,680 12,066 33.0%
Hispanic 113,285 202,868 89,583 79.1%
Other 41,603 46,483 4,880 11.7%
Total 1,820,424 2,740,140 919,716 50.5%
Changes in Labor Force by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
White 27,878,912 28,027,056 148,144 0.5%
Black 3,004,661 2,939,642 -65,019 -2.2%
Asian or Pacific Islander 880,786 799,016 -81,770 -9.3%
Hispanic 1,843,747 1,884,603 40,856 2.2%
Other 372,448 400,394 27,946 7.5%
Total 33,980,554 34,050,711 70,157 0.2%
Changes in Labor Force by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
White 28,027,056 27,877,309 -149,747 -0.5%
Black 2,939,642 2,922,052 -17,590 -0.6%
Asian or Pacific Islander 799,016 862,921 63,905 8.0%
Hispanic 1,884,603 1,907,687 23,084 1.2%
Other 400,394 425,198 24,804 6.2%
Total 34,050,711 33,995,167 -55,544 -0.2%
Changes in Labor Force by Race in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 16+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
White 27,878,912 27,877,309 -1,603 0.0%
Black 3,004,661 2,922,052 -82,609 -2.7%
Asian or Pacific Islander 880,786 862,921 -17,865 -2.0%
Hispanic 1,843,747 1,907,687 63,940 3.5%
Other 372,448 425,198 52,750 14.2%
Total 33,980,554 33,995,167 14,613 0.0%
Changes in Employment by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
High School Dropout 1,751,320 1,730,318 -21,002 -1.2%
High School Graduate 8,740,238 8,658,072 -82,166 -0.9%
Some College 8,055,672 8,280,369 224,697 2.8%
Bachelor's or Higher 9,025,726 9,178,257 152,531 1.7%
Total 27,572,956 27,847,016 274,060 1.0%
Changes in Employment by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
High School Dropout 1,730,318 1,594,452 -135,866 -7.9%
High School Graduate 8,658,072 8,424,703 -233,369 -2.7%
Some College 8,280,369 8,027,337 -253,032 -3.1%
Bachelor's or Higher 9,178,257 9,009,531 -168,726 -1.8%
Total 27,847,016 27,056,023 -790,993 -2.8%
Changes in Employment by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
High School Dropout 1,751,320 1,594,452 -156,868 -9.0%
High School Graduate 8,740,238 8,424,703 -315,535 -3.6%
Some College 8,055,672 8,027,337 -28,335 -0.4%
Bachelor's or Higher 9,025,726 9,009,531 -16,195 -0.2%
Total 27,572,956 27,056,023 -516,933 -1.9%
Changes in Unemployment by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
High School Dropout 175,670 222,630 46,960 26.7%
High School Graduate 559,235 521,973 -37,262 -6.7%
Some College 370,904 370,759 -145 0.0%
Bachelor's or Higher 201,150 174,827 -26,323 -13.1%
Total 1,306,959 1,290,189 -16,770 -1.3%
Changes in Unemployment by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
High School Dropout 222,630 260,024 37,394 16.8%
High School Graduate 521,973 848,395 326,422 62.5%
Some College 370,759 549,081 178,322 48.1%
Bachelor's or Higher 174,827 347,165 172,338 98.6%
Total 1,290,189 2,004,665 714,476 55.4%
Changes in Unemployment by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
High School Dropout 175,670 260,024 84,354 48.0%
High School Graduate 559,235 848,395 289,160 51.7%
Some College 370,904 549,081 178,177 48.0%
Bachelor's or Higher 201,150 347,165 146,015 72.6%
Total 1,306,959 2,004,665 697,706 53.4%
Changes in Labor Force by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec07-Jan08
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
High School Dropout 1,926,990 1,952,948 25,958 1.3%
High School Graduate 9,299,473 9,180,045 -119,428 -1.3%
Some College 8,426,576 8,651,128 224,552 2.7%
Bachelor's or Higher 9,226,876 9,353,084 126,208 1.4%
Total 28,879,915 29,137,205 257,290 0.9%
Changes in Labor Force by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2007-Jan 2008 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec07-Jan08
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
High School Dropout 1,952,948 1,854,476 -98,472 -5.0%
High School Graduate 9,180,045 9,273,098 93,053 1.0%
Some College 8,651,128 8,576,418 -74,710 -0.9%
Bachelor's or Higher 9,353,084 9,356,696 3,612 0.0%
Total 29,137,205 29,060,688 -76,517 -0.3%
Changes in Labor Force by Education in the Heartland Region, Civilian Workers Age 25+, Dec 2006-Jan 2007 Avg to Dec 2008-Jan 2009 Avg (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Dec06-Jan07
AvgDec08-Jan09
AvgAbsolute Change
Relative Change
High School Dropout 1,926,990 1,854,476 -72,514 -3.8%
High School Graduate 9,299,473 9,273,098 -26,375 -0.3%
Some College 8,426,576 8,576,418 149,842 1.8%
Bachelor's or Higher 9,226,876 9,356,696 129,820 1.4%
Total 28,879,915 29,060,688 180,773 0.6%
U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands
SectorDecembe
r 2007Decembe
r 2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm 138,078.0 135,489.0 -2,589.0 -1.9%Total Private 115,745 112,975 -2,770 -2.4%Goods-Producing 21,976 20,616 -1,360 -6.2%Service-Providing 116,102 114,873 -1,229 -1.1%Private Service-Providing 93,769 92,359 -1,410 -1.5%Federal Govt. 2,735 2,755 20 0.7%State Govt. 5,153 5,221 68 1.3%State Govt. Education Services 2,333 2,389 57 2.4%Local Govt. 14,445 14,538 93 0.6%Local Govt. Education Services 8,017 8,042 25 0.3%
U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands
SectorDecembe
r 2007August
2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm 138,078.0 137,423.0 -655.0 -0.5%Total Private 115,745 114,909 -836 -0.7%Goods-Producing 21,976 21,367 -609 -2.8%Service-Providing 116,102 116,056 -46 0.0%Private Service-Providing 93.769 93,542 -227 -0.2%Federal Govt. 2,735 2,748 13 0.5%State Govt. 5,153 5,210 57 1.1%State Govt. Education Services 2,333 2,379 46 2.0%Local Govt. 14,445 14,556 111 0.8%Local Govt. Education Services 8,017 8,059 42 0.5%
Changes in U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands
Dec 2007 Aug 2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm 138,078.0 137,423.0 -655.0 -0.5%Natural Resources and Mining 739.0 788.0 49.0 6.6%Construction 7,465.0 7,153.0 -312.0 -4.2%Manufacturing 137,72.0 13,426.0 -346.0 -2.5%Trade, Transport, Utilities 26,658.0 26,346.0 -312.0 -1.2%Wholesale Trade 6,072.9 6,007.1 -65.8 -1.1%Retail Trade 15,487.8 15,274.7 -213.1 -1.4%
Information 3,018.0 2,984.0 -34.0 -1.1%Financial Activities 8,252.0 8,196.0 -56.0 -0.7%Professional and Business Services 18,131.0 17,854.0 -277.0 -1.5%Professional and Technical Services 7,820.5 7,859.5 39.0 0.5%Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,847.8 1,832.1 -15.7 -0.8%Administrative and Waste Service 8,462.8 8,162.7 -300.1 -3.5%
Education and Health Services 18,568.0 18,997.0 429.0 2.3%Leisure and Hospitality 13,635.0 13,639.0 4.0 0.0%Other Services 5,507.0 5,526.0 19.0 0.3%Government 22,333.0 22,514.0 181.0 0.8%
U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands
SectorAugust
2008Decembe
r 2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm 137,423 135,489 -1,934 -1.4%Total Private 114,909 112,975 -1,934 -1.7%Goods-Producing 21,367 20,616 -751 -3.5%Service-Providing 116056 114,873 -1,183 -1.0%Private Service-Providing 93,542 92,359 -1,183 -1.3%Federal Govt. 2,748 2,755 7 0.3%State Govt. 5,210 5,221 11 0.2%State Govt. Education Services 2,379 2,389 11 0.4%Local Govt. 14,556 14,538 -18 -0.1%Local Govt. Education Services 8,059 8,042 -17 -0.2%
Changes in U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands
Aug 2008 Dec 2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm 137,423.0 135,489.0 -1,934.0 -1.4%Natural Resources and Mining 788.0 802.0 14.0 1.8%Construction 7,153.0 6,833.0 -320.0 -4.5%Manufacturing 13,426.0 12,981.0 -445.0 -3.3%Trade, Transport, Utilities 26,346.0 25,833.0 -513.0 -1.9%
Wholesale Trade 6,007.1 5,909.4 -97.7 -1.6%Retail Trade 15,274.7 14,965.5 -309.2 -2.0%
Information 2,984.0 2,933.0 -51.0 -1.7%Financial Activities 8,196.0 8,104.0 -92.0 -1.1%Professional and Business Services 17,854.0 17,450.0 -404.0 -2.3%
Professional and Technical Services 7,859.5 7,827.8 -31.7 -0.4%Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,832.1 1,797.2 -34.9 -1.9%Administrative and Waste Service 8,162.7 7,824.6 -338.1 -4.1%
Education and Health Services 18,997.0 19,104.0 107.0 0.6%Leisure and Hospitality 13,639.0 13,468.0 -171.0 -1.3%Other Services 5,526.0 5,467.0 -59.0 -1.1%Government 22,514.0 22,514.0 0.0 0.0%
Who Lost Jobs? Age, Gender, Race, Educational and Occupational Characteristics of 2008 Employment Losses in the Nation
Trends in the Number of Employed Persons
Trends in the Number of Employed Persons Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Gender
GenderDecember
2007December
2008 Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total, 16+ 146,294 143,338 -2,956 -2.0%
Men 78,315 75,881 -2,434 -3.1%
Women 67,975 67,434 -541 -0.8%
Trends in the Number of Employed Persons Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age
AgeDecember
2007December
2008 Absolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 5,822 5,194 -628 -10.8%
20-24 13,731 13,374 -357 -2.6%
25-34 31,652 30,864 -788 -2.5%
34-54 68,867 66,788 -2,079 -3.0%
55+ 26,218 27,096 878 3.3%
Trends in the Number of Employed Persons(16 and Older) By Age, December 2007 to
December 2008
-628-357
-788
-2079
878
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
16-19 20-24 25-34 34-54 55+
Trends in the Number of Employed Males Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age
Age (Males)December
2007December
2008 Absolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 2,779 2,562 -217 -7.8%
20-24 7,279 6,863 -416 -5.7%
25-34 17,442 16,789 -653 -3.7%
34-54 36,913 35,339 -1,574 -4.3%
55+ 13,902 14,328 426 3.1%
Trends in the Number of Employed Females Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age
Age (Females)
December 2007
December 2008
Absolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 3,043 2,632 -411 -13.5%
20-24 6,452 6,510 58 0.9%
25-34 14,210 14,075 -135 -1.0%
34-54 31,954 31,448 -506 -1.6%
55+ 12,316 12,769 453 3.7%
Trends in the Number of Employed Persons Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Race-
Ethnicity
Race-EthnicityDecember
2007December
2008 Absolute Change
Relative Change
White 119,947 117,357 -2,590 -2.2%
Black 16,013 15,674 -339 -2.1%
Asian* 6,958 6,857 -101 -1.5%
Hispanic** 21,861 22,134 273 1.2%
Trends in the Number of Employed Males 20+ in the U.S. by Race-Ethnicity
Race-Ethnicity (Males, 20+)
December 2007
December 2008
Absolute Change
Relative Change
White 62,692 61,101 -1,591 -2.5%
Black 7244 6930 -314 -4.3%
Asian* NA NA NA NA
Hispanic** 11,921 11,558 -363 -3.0%
Trends in the Number of Employed Persons Aged 25+ in the U.S. by
Educational Attainment
Educational Attainment
December2007
December2008
Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total, 25+ 126,961 124,962 -1,999 -1.6%
Dropout 11,356 10,793 -563 -5.0%High School Graduate 36,928 35,683 -1,245 -3.4%
Some College 35,071 34,969 -102 -0.3%
Bachelor's or higher 43,606 43,517 -89 -0.2%
Distribution of Employment Losses Among Persons Aged 25+, by Educational
Attainment, December 2007 to December 2008
High School
Graduate63%
High School
Dropout28%
Bachelor's or more
4%
Some College
5%
Trends in the Number of Employed Persons Aged 16+ in the U.S. (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Occupation December
2007December,
2008 Abs.
ChangeRelative Change
Management and Finance 21,699 21,928 229 1.1%Professional/Related 30,625 30,619 -6 0.0%Service Occupations 23,551 24,371 820 3.5%Sales 16,654 16,354 -300 -1.8%Office and Admin. Support 19,812 18,633 -1,179 -6.0%Construction Occs. 9,302 8,025 -1,277 -13.7%Installation/Repair 5,226 5,276 50 1.0%Production 9,468 8,421 -1,047 -11.1%Trans./Material Moving 9,075 8,821 -254 -2.8%
Trends in the Number of Unemployed Persons
Trends in the Number of Unemployed Persons Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Gender
GenderDecember
2007December
2008 Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total, 16+ 7,541 11,108 3,567 47.3%
Men 4,115 6,460 2,345 57.0%
Women 3,429 4,628 1,199 35.0%
Unemployment Relative Change
Unemployment 5 Best & Worst States
October & November 2008 Unemployment by State
Trends in the Size of the Labor Force Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Gender
GenderDecember
2007December 2008
Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total, 16+ 153,835 154,446 611 0.4%
Men 82,430 82,341 -89 -0.1%
Women 71,404 72,062 658 0.9%
Trends in the Number of Unemployed Persons Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age
AgeDecember
2007December 2008
Absolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 1,183 1,363 180 15.2%
20-24 1,391 1,843 452 32.5%
25-34 1,601 2,490 889 55.5%
34-54 2,559 4,036 1,477 57.7%
55+ 843 1,409 566 67.1%
Trends in the Size of the Labor Force Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age
AgeDecember
2007December
2008 Absolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 7,005 6,557 -448 -6.4%
20-24 15,122 15,217 95 0.6%
25-34 33,253 33,354 101 0.3%
34-54 71,426 70,824 -602 -0.8%
55+ 27,061 28,505 1,444 5.3%
Trends in the Number of Unemployed Males Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age
Age (Males)December
2007December
2008 Absolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 677 777 100 14.8%
20-24 780 1,137 357 45.8%
25-34 902 1,510 608 67.4%
34-54 1,309 2,261 952 72.7%
55+ 447 775 328 73.4%
Trends in the Size of the Labor Force Males Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age
Age (Males)December
2007December
2008 Absolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 3,456 3,339 -117 -3.4%
20-24 8,059 8,000 -59 -0.7%
25-34 18,344 18,299 -45 -0.2%
34-54 38,222 37,600 -622 -1.6%
55+ 14,349 15,103 754 5.3%
Trends in the Number of Unemployed Females Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age
Age (Females)December
2007December 2008
Absolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 506 587 81 16.0%
20-24 611 707 96 15.7%
25-34 698 981 283 40.5%
34-54 1,248 1,776 528 42.3%
55+ 366 577 211 57.7%
Trends in the Size of the Labor Force Females Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Age
Age (Females)
December 2007
December 2008
Absolute Change
Relative Change
16-19 3,549 3,219 -330 -9.3%
20-24 7,063 7,217 154 2.2%
25-34 14,908 15,056 148 1.0%
34-54 33,202 33,224 22 0.1%
55+ 12,682 13,346 664 5.2%
Trends in the Number of Unemployed Persons Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Race-
Ethnicity
Race-EthnicityDecember
2007December
2008
Absolute
ChangeRelative Change
White 5,456 8,277 2,821 51.7%
Black 1,561 2,122 561 35.9%
Asian* 267 365 98 36.7%
Hispanic** 1,357 2,038 681 50.2%
Trends in the Size of the Labor Force Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Race-Ethnicity
Race-EthnicityDecember
2007December
2008 Absolute Change
Relative Change
White 125,403 125,634 231 0.2%
Black 17,574 17,796 222 1.3%
Asian* 7,225 7,222 -3 0.0%
Hispanic** 23,218 24,172 954 4.1%
Trends in the Number of Unemployed Males Aged 20+ in the U.S. by Race-
Ethnicity
Race-Ethnicity (Males, 20+)
December 2007
December 2008
Absolute Change
Relative Change
White 2,542 4,230 1,688 66.4%
Black 644 1,069 425 66.0%
Asian* NA NA NA NA
Hispanic** 733 1,194 461 62.9%
Trends in the Size of the Male Labor Force Aged 20+ in the U.S. by Race-Ethnicity
Race-Ethnicity (Males, 20+)
December 2007
December 2008
Absolute
ChangeRelative Change
White 65,234 65,331 97 0.1%
Black 7,244 6,930 -314 -4.3%
Asian* NA NA NA NA
Hispanic** 12,654 12,752 98 0.8%
Trends in the Number of Unemployed Persons Aged 25+ in the U.S. by
Educational Attainment
Educational Attainment
December2007
December2008
Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total, 25+ 5,015 8,032 3,017 60.2%
Dropout 927 1,315 388 41.9%High School Graduate 1,786 2,972 1,186 66.4%
Some College 1,356 2,080 724 53.4%
Bachelor's or higher 946 1,665 719 76.0%
Trends in the Size of the Labor Force Aged
25+ in the U.S. by Educational Attainment
Educational Attainment
December 2007
December 2008
Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total, 25+ 131,976 132,994 -1,999 -1.6%
Dropout 12,283 12,108 -175 -1.4%High School Graduate 38,714 38,655 -59 -0.2%
Some College 36,427 37,049 622 1.7%
Bachelor's or higher 44,552 45,182 630 1.4%
Trends in the Number of Unemployed Persons (Experienced Labor Force) Aged 16+ in the U.S. (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
OccupationDec. 2007
Dec. 2008
Absolute Change
Relative Change
Management and Finance 461 888 427 92.6%Professional/Related 580 915 335 57.8%Service Occupations 1,571 2,057 486 30.9%Sales 903 1,233 330 36.5%Office and Admin. Support 814 1,215 401 49.3%Construction Occupations 990 1,522 532 53.7%Installation/Repair 195 339 144 73.8%Production 600 992 392 65.3%Trans./Material Moving 575 936 361 62.8%
Trends in the Size of the Experienced Labor Force Aged 16+ in the U.S.
(Not Seasonally Adjusted)
OccupationDec.2007
Dec. 2008
Absolute
Change
Relative
ChangeManagement and Finance 22,160 22,816 656 3.0%Professional/Related 31,205 31,534 329 1.1%Service Occupations 25,122 26,428 1,306 5.2%Sales 17,557 17,587 30 0.2%Office and Admin/Support 20,626 19,848 -778 -3.8%Construction Occupations 10,292 9,547 -745 -7.2%Installation/Repair 5,421 5,615 194 3.6%Production 10,068 9,413 -655 -6.5%Trans/Material Moving 9,650 9,757 107 1.1%
Unemployment & Labor Underutilization
Trends in Unemployment Rates, Aged 16+ in the U.S. by Race-Ethnicity
Race-EthnicityDecember 2007
December 2008
Absolute Change
Relative Change
White 4.4% 6.6% 2.2% 51.4%
Black 8.9% 11.9% 3.0% 34.2%
Asian* 3.7% 5.1% 1.4% 36.8%
Hispanic** 5.8% 8.4% 2.6% 44.3%
Trends in Unemployment Rates of Males Aged 20+ in the U.S. by Race-Ethnicity
Race-EthnicityDecember
2007December
2008 Absolute Change
Relative Change
White 3.9% 6.5% 2.6% 66.2%
Black 8.9% 15.4% 6.5% 73.5%
Asian* NA NA NA NA
Hispanic** 5.8% 9.4% 3.6% 61.6%
Trends in Full-time and Part-Time Employment
December
2007December
2008 Absolute Change
Relative Change
Full-time 121,501 116,865 -4,636 -3.8%
Part-time 24,701 26,250 1,549 6.3%
Voluntary Part-time 19,536 18,922 -614 -3.1%
Involuntary Part-Time 4,638 8,038 3,400 73.3%
Slack Work 3,101 5,304 2,203 71.0%
Trends in Unemployment By Reasons
Reasons for Unemployment
December 2007
December 2008
Absolute Change
Relative Change
Job Losers 3,785 6,471 2,686 71.0%
Job Leavers 787 1,007 220 28.0%
Reentrants 2,302 2,777 475 20.6%
New Entrants 693 829 136 19.6%
Trends in the Distribution of the Unemployed by Reasons
Reasons for Unemployment December 2007 December 2008
Job Losers 50.0% 58.4%
Job Leavers 10.4% 9.1%
Reentrants 30.4% 25.1%
New Entrants 9.2% 7.5%
Trends in the Duration of Unemployment
Duration of Unemployment
December 2007
December 2008
Absolute Change
Relative Change
Less Than 5 Weeks 2,718 3,267 549 20.2%
5 to 14 Weeks 2,314 3,398 1,084 46.8%
15+ Weeks 2,284 4,517 2,233 97.8%
27+ Weeks 1,315 2,591 1,276 97.0%
Trends in the Distribution of the Unemployed by Duration
Duration of Unemployment
December 2007
December 2008
Less Than 5 Weeks 36.2% 29.2%
5 to 14 Weeks 30.8% 30.4%
15+ Weeks 33.1% 40.4%
27+ Weeks 17.5% 23.2%
Trends in the Mean and Median Weeks of Unemployment in the U.S.
16.5
19.7
8.410.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
December, 2007 December, 2008
Mean Duration Median Duration
Trends in the 16+ Population Outside of the Labor Force, by Job Desire
Job Desire Among OLF
December 2007
December 2008
Absolute
Change
Relative
Change
No Job Desire 79,451 80,686 1,235 1.6%
With a Job Desire 4,398 5,180 782 17.8%
Marginally Attached 1,344 1,908 564 42.0%
Trends in the Labor Underutilization Rate and its Components
Decembe
r2007Decembe
r2008 Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Unemployed 7,541 11,108 3,567 47.3%Involuntarily Part-time 4,638 8,038 3,400 73.3%
Marginally Attached 1,344 1,908 564 42.0%Labor Underutilization 13,523 21,054 7,531 55.7%Adjusted Labor Force 155,179 156,354 1,175 0.8%Underutilization Rate 8.7% 13.5% 4.8% 54.5%
Trends in the Unemployment and Underutilization Rates of the 16+
Population
4.8%
7.1%
8.7%
13.5%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
December, 2007 December, 2008
Official Unemployment Rate Underutilization Rate
Trends in the Estimates of Demand Deficiency in the Labor Market
Time Period
Numberof Unemp.
Persons
Numberof Job
Openings
Ratio of Unemp.to Job
OpeningsDemand Deficient
Structural/ Frictional
December 2006-January 2007 7,029 4,277 1.6 39.2% 60.8%December 2007-January 2008 7,555 3,974 1.9 47.4% 52.6%August-September, 2008 9,592 3,374 2.8 64.8% 35.2%November-December 2008 11,108 2,793 4.0 74.9% 25.1%
Re-Employment and Job Vacancy
Changes in the Level and Rate of Job Openings in the U.S., Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average 2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in Thousands)
Sector Q4 2007
Oct-Nov Average
2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm
Level 3,996.7 2,897.0 -1,099.7 -27.5%Rate 2.8 2.1 -0.8
Construction
Level 142.7 65.5 -77.2 -54.1%Rate 1.8 1.0 -0.9
Manufacturing
Level 303.7 177.5 -126.2 -41.5%Rate 2.2 1.4 -0.9
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Level 653.0 530.5 -122.5 -18.8%Rate 2.4 2.0 -0.4
Retail Trade
Level 341.0 350.5 9.5 2.8%Rate 2.2 2.3 0.1
Professional and Business Services
Level 716.3 478.5 -237.8 -33.2%Rate 3.8 2.6 -1.2
Education and Health Services
Level 705.0 599.0 -106.0 -15.0%Rate 3.7 3.1 -0.6
Leisure and Hospitality
Level 593.0 327.5 -265.5 -44.8%Rate 4.2 2.4 -1.8
Government
Level 449.3 402.0 -47.3 -10.5%Rate 2.0 1.8 -0.3
Changes in the Level of Job Openings in the U.S. by Region, Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average
2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in Thousands)
Region Q4 2007
Oct-Nov Average
2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Northeast
Level 643.3 523.5 -119.8 -18.6%Rate 2.4 2.1 -0.4
South
Level 1,607.7 1,138.5 -469.2 -29.2%Rate 3.2 2.3 -0.9
Midwest
Level 760.3 597.5 -162.8 -21.4%Rate 2.3 1.9 -0.4
West
Level 986.3 651.0 -335.3 -34.0%Rate 3.1 2.1 -1.1
Trend in the Level of Total Nonfarm Job Openings in the U.S. 2007-2008
Jan-07Feb
-07Mar-
07Apr-
07
May-07Jun
-07Jul-07Aug
-07Se
p-07Oct-
07Nov-
07Dec-
07Jan
-08Feb
-08Mar-
08Apr-
08
May-08Jun
-08Jul-08Aug
-08Se
p-08Oct-
08Nov-
080
500100015002000250030003500400045005000
Changes in the Level and Rate of Hires in the U.S., Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average 2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in
Thousands)Sector Q4 2007
Oct-Nov Average
2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm
Level 4,767.7 3,851.5 -916.2 -19.2%Rate 3.5 2.8 -0.7
Construction
Level 339.0 285.0 -54.0 -15.9%Rate 4.5 4.1 -0.5
Manufacturing
Level 366.3 236.5 -129.8 -35.4%Rate 2.7 1.8 -0.9
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Level 978.0 781.5 -196.5 -20.1%
Rate 3.6 3.0 -0.6
Retail Trade
Level 682.3 533.0 -149.3 -21.9%
Rate 4.4 3.5 -0.9 Professional and Business Services
Level 869.3 733.5 -135.8 -15.6%Rate 4.8 4.2 -0.6
Education and Health Services
Level 501.3 475.0 -26.3 -5.3%
Rate 2.7 2.5 -0.2
Leisure and Hospitality
Level 883.3 656.5 -226.8 -25.7%Rate 6.5 4.9 -1.6
Government
Level 370.7 307.0 -63.7 -17.2%Rate 1.7 1.4 -0.3
Changes in the Level of Hires in the U.S. by Region, Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average
2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in Thousands)
Region Q4 2007Oct-Nov
Average 2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Northeast
Level 728.0 573.5 -154.5 -21.2%Rate 2.8 2.3 -0.6
South
Level 1851.3 1,419.5 -431.8 -23.3%Rate 3.7 2.9 -0.8
Midwest
Level 1,056.3 876.0 -180.3 -17.1%Rate 3.4 2.8 -0.6
West
Level 1,100.3 924.5 -175.8 -16.0%Rate 3.5 3.1 -0.5
Trend in the Level of Total Nonfarm Hires in the U.S. 2007-2008
Jan-07Feb
-07Mar-
07Apr-
07
May-07Jun
-07Jul-07Aug
-07Se
p-07Oct-
07Nov-
07Dec-
07Jan
-08Feb
-08Mar-
08Apr-
08
May-08Jun
-08Jul-08Aug
-08Se
p-08Oct-
08Nov-
080
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Changes in the Level and Rate of Separations in the U.S., Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average
2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in Thousands)
Sector Q4 2007
Oct-Nov Average
2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm
Level 4,547.3 4,300.0 -247.3 -5.4%Rate 3.3 3.2 -0.1
Construction
Level 336.0 436.5 100.5 29.9%Rate 4.5 6.3 1.8
Manufacturing
Level 372.7 406.0 33.3 8.9%Rate 2.7 3.1 0.3
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Level 1,018.7 925.5 -93.2 -9.1%
Rate 3.8 3.6 -0.3 Retail Trade
Level 717.3 615.0 -102.3 -14.3%Rate 4.6 4.1 -0.5
Professional and Business Services
Level 875.7 760.5 -115.2 -13.2%
Rate 4.9 4.4 -0.5 Education and Health Services
Level 424.7 414.5 -10.2 -2.4%
Rate 2.3 2.2 -0.1 Leisure and Hospitality
Level 787.7 677.0 -110.7 -14.0%Rate 5.8 5.0 -0.8
Government
Level 289.0 262.5 -26.5 -9.2%
Rate 1.3 1.2 -0.1
Changes in the Level of Separations in the U.S. by Region, Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average 2008, Seasonally Adjusted
(Levels in Thousands)
Region Q4 2007
Oct-Nov Average
2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Northeast
Level 715.7 629.5 -86.2 -12.0%Rate 2.8 2.5 -0.3
South
Level 1,728.3 1,587.5 -140.8 -8.1%Rate 3.4 3.3 -0.2
Midwest
Level 982.7 979.5 -3.2 -0.3%Rate 3.1 3.2 0.0
West
Level 1,140.0 1,119.5 -20.5 -1.8%Rate 3.7 3.7 0.0
Trend in the Level of Total Nonfarm Separations in the U.S. 2007-2008
Jan-07Feb
-07Mar-
07Apr-
07
May-07Jun
-07Jul-07Aug
-07Se
p-07Oct-
07Nov-
07Dec-
07Jan
-08Feb
-08Mar-
08Apr-
08
May-08Jun
-08Jul-08Aug
-08Se
p-08Oct-
08Nov-
083600
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
Changes in the Level and Rate of Quits in the U.S., Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average 2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in
Thousands )Sector Q4 2007
Oct-Nov Average
2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm
Level 2547.7 2002.5 -545.2 -21.4%Rate 1.8 1.5 -0.3
Construction
Level 124.0 94.5 -29.5 -23.8%Rate 1.6 1.4 -0.3
Manufacturing
Level 189.3 140.0 -49.3 -26.1%Rate 1.4 1.1 -0.3
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Level 583.3 444.5 -138.8 -23.8%Rate 2.2 1.7 -0.5
Retail Trade
Level 436.7 316.0 -120.7 -27.6%Rate 2.8 2.1 -0.8
Professional and Business Services
Level 414.7 345.5 -69.2 -16.7%Rate 2.3 2.0 -0.4
Education and Health Services
Level 263.7 239.0 -24.7 -9.4%Rate 1.4 1.3 -0.2
Leisure and Hospitality
Level 554.3 435.0 -119.3 -21.5%Rate 4.1 3.2 -0.9
Government
Level 140.3 113.0 -27.3 -19.5%Rate 0.6 0.5 -0.1
Changes in the Level of Quits in the U.S. by Region, Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average 2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in Thousands )
Region Q4 2007
Oct-Nov Average
2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Northeast
Level 339.0 275.0 -64.0 -18.9%Rate 1.3 1.1 -0.3
South
Level 1030.7 790.5 -240.2 -23.3%Rate 2.1 1.6 -0.5
Midwest
Level 524.7 467.0 -57.7 -11.0%Rate 1.7 1.5 -0.2
West
Level 643.3 472.0 -171.3 -26.6%Rate 2.1 1.6 -0.5
Trend in the Level of Total Nonfarm Quits in the U.S. 2007-2008
Jan-07Feb
-07Mar-
07Apr-
07
May-07Jun
-07Jul-07Aug
-07Se
p-07Oct-
07Nov-
07Dec-
07Jan
-08Feb
-08Mar-
08Apr-
08
May-08Jun
-08Jul-08Aug
-08Se
p-08Oct-
08Nov-
080
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Changes in the Level of Net Hires and Separations in
the U.S., Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average 2008, Seasonally Adjusted (Levels in Thousands )
Sector Q4 2007Oct-Nov
Average 2008Total Nonfarm 220.3 -448.5Construction 3.0 -151.5Manufacturing -6.3 -169.5Trade, Transportation, and Utilities -40.7 -144.0Retail Trade -35.0 -82.0Professional and Business Services -6.3 -27.0Education and Health Services 76.7 60.5Leisure and Hospitality 95.7 -20.5Government 81.7 44.5
Changes in the Level of Net Hires and Separations in the U.S. by Region, Q4 2007 to Oct-Nov Average 2008, Seasonally Adjusted
(Levels in Thousands )
Region Q4 2007Oct-Nov
Average 2008
Northeast 12.3 -56.0
South 123.0 -168.0
Midwest 73.7 -103.5
West -39.7 -195.0
MAPS
Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted by Region Quarter 4 2007
Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted by Region October & November 2008
Employment Relative Change
Unemployment Relative Change
Employment 5 Best & Worst States
Unemployment 5 Best & Worst States
October & November 2008 Unemployment by State
Changes in U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands
Dec 2007 Dec 2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm 138,078.0 135,489.0 -2,589.0 -1.9%Natural Resources and Mining 739.0 802.0 63.0 8.5%Construction 7,465.0 6,833.0 -632.0 -8.5%Manufacturing 13,772.0 12,981.0 -791.0 -5.7%Trade, Transport, Utilities 26,658.0 25,833.0 -825.0 -3.1%
Wholesale Trade 6,072.9 5,909.4 -163.5 -2.7%Retail Trade 15,487.8 14,965.5 -522.3 -3.4%
Information 3,018.0 2,933.0 -85.0 -2.8%Financial Activities 8,252.0 8,104.0 -148.0 -1.8%Professional and Business Services 18,131.0 17,450.0 -681.0 -3.8%
Professional and Technical Services 7,820.5 7,827.8 7.3 0.1%Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,847.8 1,797.2 -50.6 -2.7%Administrative and Waste Service 8,462.8 7,824.6 -638.2 -7.5%
Education and Health Services 18,568.0 19,104.0 536.0 2.9%Leisure and Hospitality 13,635.0 13,468.0 -167.0 -1.2%Other Services 5,507.0 5,467.0 -40.0 -0.7%Government 22,333.0 22,514.0 181.0 0.8%
Changes in U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands
Q4 2007 Q4 2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm 138,030.7 136,033.0 -1,997.7 -1.4%Natural Resources and Mining 733.7 800.3 66.7 9.1%Construction 7,520.7 6,928.7 592.0 -7.9%Manufacturing 13,787.7 13,115.0 -672.7 -4.9%Trade, Transport, Utilities 26,665.0 25,968.3 -696.7 -2.6%Wholesale Trade 6,072.6 5,940.3 -132.2 -2.2%Retail Trade 15,490.0 1,5043.2 -446.8 -2.9%
Information 3,022.3 2,952.7 -69.7 -2.3%Financial Activities 8,265.0 8,122.7 -142.3 -1.7%Professional and Business Services 18,093.3 17,573.7 -519.7 -2.9%Professional and Technical Services 7,788.2 7,846.0 57.8 0.7%Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,852.9 1,807.0 -45.9 -2.5%Administrative and Waste Service 8,452.2 7,920.4 -531.8 -6.3%
Education and Health Services 18,526.7 19,058.3 531.7 2.9%Leisure and Hospitality 13,622.3 13,505.0 -117.3 -0.9%Other Services 5,503.0 5,498.0 -5.0 -0.1%Government 22,291.0 22,510.3 219.3 1.0%
U.S. Payroll Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, in Thousands
Sector Q4 2007 Q4 2008Absolute Change
Relative Change
Total Nonfarm 138,031 136,033 -1,998 -1.4%Total Private 115,740 113,523 -2,217 -1.9%Goods-Producing 22,042 20,844 -1,198 -5.4%Service-Providing 115,989 115,189 -800 -0.7%Private Service-Providing 93,698 92,679 -1,019 -1.1%Federal Govt. 2,728 2,757 28 1.0%State Govt. 5,141 5,215 74 1.4%State Govt. Education Services 2,324 2,384 60 2.6%Local Govt. 14,422 14,539 117 0.8%Local Govt. Education Services 8,004 8,046 43 0.5%
A Thumbnail Sketch of the Economic Crisis
An Economy out of BalanceTotal GDP 2000 to 2007 $92.5 TrillionTotal Purchases of G&S $97.0 Trillion
Difference -$4.5 Trillion
How did we purchase more than we produced?
Purchased Goods from OverseasU.S. Balance of Trade Deficit increased by about $4.5 Trillion
How did we pay for excess consumption?
Household debt doubled by $6.8 trillionBetween 2000 and 2005 average home price doubledAlmost half of this debt secured by mortgagesSavings rate fell to zero
A Housing Bubble “Market Values Fluctuate: Debt is Forever”
Unlike equity bubbles housing bubbles quickly convert to spendingBanks “make your home work for you”Out of $6.8 Trillion increase in debt, $4.2 Trillion NOT spent on housingConsumer electronics/autos/trucks
Who lent us the money?
China, oil producers including Russia and Saudi ArabiaThese nations purchased U.S. Treasuries-safe and secureHeld assets in U.S. banks—swelling domestic banking reserves
How did this fuel borrowing and spending?
Large reserves fueled rapid growth in money supply
Fractional reserve lending system meant that growth in reserves resulted in large growth in money supply via the money multiplier –result was low interest rates
Federal Reserve Response
Fed did nothingGreenspan: World has entered into a “new economic paradigm (rejection of liquidity preference theory and acceptance of the efficient market theory)Prices set in asset and housing markets are ‘correct’
Fed continued
Absence of inflation over 2000 to 2005 led to fed to inactionFed supported rising asset pricesPermitted rapid expansion in money supply and declining real interest ratesFueled further increases in housing and stock markets (asset inflation)
What’s different about this downturn?
Rise in asset values are based on financiers making increasingly risky loansBanks developed new ways of sell off these risky loans into world markets
CDOs Credit Default Swaps
Estimated $30 Trillion losses in wealth across the world
How did housing bubble burst?
Mortgage loans made to people with no hope of making payments
1. Sub-prime2. Home equity loans based on
assumption of perpetually rising housing prices
3. Teaser rates4. Home values collapse -down 25
Percent since mid 2006
Problem is now well beyond mortgage backed securities and housing market
Commercial lendingCredit card lendingAuto lendingAll suffering rising default problemsSo banking system sharply reduces lending—money multiplier collapses—liquidity trap
Financial meltdown has led to deflation
Deflation is a downward pressure on prices that sharply reduces the level of output, employment and incomeDeflation is a self-reinforcing downward spiral based on future expectations about prices that reflect overall economic conditions