Understanding Testing Variability - RMACES...T228 D70 Asphalt Cement Speciﬁc Gravity 0.0024 0.0024...

Rocky Mountain Asphalt Conference & Equipment Show

February 19-21, 2014Denver, Colorado

Jon Epps

Understanding Testing Variability

Wednesday, March 5, 14

Rocky Mountain Asphalt Conference & Equipment Show

February 19-21, 2014Denver, Colorado

Jon Epps

Understanding Testing Variability

Outline Introduction Variability Sampling Variability Testing Variability Materials/Construction Variability Percent within Limit Typical Variability Summary

Why Understand Testing Variability

Provide quality product to our customer

Remain in businessEstablish specification limitsPredict pay factors

“Quality”

Customer

Engineer

Quality - Customer

Product Meets or Exceeds Customer’s Expectation– Short Term– Long Term

(Durability) Appearance

Quality – Pavements

Looks Good Rides Smoothly No Splash and Spray Quiet Provide Friction

Quality - Engineer Meets or Exceeds

Expectation (Performance)– Short Term– Long Term

Meets or Exceeds Specifications

Uniform Product

Quality-Pavements (Engineer)

Meets or Exceeds Specification Satisfies Customer Short & Long Term Performance

– Rutting– Raveling

– Bleeding– Cracking

– Patching

Quality Pavements

Mixture/Materials Designs

Thickness of Pavement

Specifications Construction

Who Is Responsible for Quality? Owner (Public Agency) Contractor/Material Supplier All Levels of the Organization

Role of Specifications Contractors/Material Supplier (Control

Quality) Owner (Public Agencies) (Specify Quality)

Contractor/Material Supplier

• Process ControlQuality Control

Owner(Pubic Agency)

• Quality Assurance

Referee

IndependentAssurance

Types of SpecificationsProprietaryMethodQC/QAEnd Result

Performance Related Performance Based Statistically Based Warranty/Guarantee

Specifications – Quality Control/Quality Assurance

Lot/Sublot Process Control

/Quality Control Quality Assurance Acceptance Measurement Pay Adjustment Certification/Accreditation

Outline IntroductionVariability Sampling Variability Testing Variability Materials/Construction Variability Percent within Limit Typical Variability

60 Asphalt Binder Contents

4.3 % 5.1 %4.7 %4.5 % 4.9 %

Statistical Representation of Variability

+3 s99.7%

4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6Asphalt Content

4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.6 5.8Asphalt Content

QC/QA and Variability

Variability = variability + variability + variability

(QC/QA) (sampling) (test method) (mat./const.)

S2QC/QA = S2

s + S2t + S2

Sources of Variability Sampling - random variation in sampling

methods or procedures Testing - random variation in testing

performance and equipment

Material - random natural variation Construction - variation inherent in

production and construction methods

Sampling + testing variability = about 50% of the variation in

test results

Outline Introduction Variability Sampling Variability Testing Variability Materials/Construction Variability Percent within Limit Typical Variability

Effect of Number of Samples and Associated Risk

Reported Test Result

Sample Size & Frequency Increase Sample Size &

Increase Frequency (#)–Large Nom Max Agg Size–Large Mixture Variability–High Reliability–Large Effect on Performance–New Materials or Production–Non-Compliance w/Specifications

Number and Size of SamplesASTM Standards

D3665 - Random Sampling of Construction Materials

E105 - Probability Sampling of Materials

E122 - Choice of Sample Size to Estimate the Average Quality of a Lot or Process

E141 - Acceptance of Evidence Wednesday, March 5, 14

Lot/Sublots/ #Tests Lot

– Amount of material being evaluated for payment purposes

– Commonly defined by length of roadway or material mass

Sublots/Lot – Sampling divisions within given lot– Commonly 4 or 5 with 1 test/sublot

Tests/Sublot – Number of material tests or measurements per lot

or sublot– Typically 1 to 5 depending on lot and sublot

ROADWAY LOT

With simple random Sampling, All samplescould end Up in one

section of a Roadway lot

Random Sampling

ROADWAY LOT

Random Sampling

ROADWAY LOT

Random Sampling

ROADWAY LOT

Random Sampling

ROADWAY LOT

Random Sampling

Stratified Random Sampling

Sublot 1

Sublot 2

Sublot 3

Sublot 4

Sta100

Sta110

Sta120

Sta130

Sta140

Point of Sampling

Asphalt–Plant Tank or

Middle 1/3 of Truck Load

–Bleed off & Discard Prior to Sampling

–Sample & Seal

Point of Sampling Asphalt Content

– Loose Plant, Truck, Mat (entire lift), Windrow, or Paver (auger) Samples, Cores

Aggregate Gradation– Coldfeeds or hot bins– Extracted from HMA (loose samples or

cores) Lab Compacted Volumetrics

– Loose Plant, Truck, Mat (entire lift), Wednesday, March 5, 14

Cold Feed Sampling

Cold Feed “Belt Cuts” are taken

from the collector belt enroute to the

dryer drum

Loose Mat Sampling

Effect of Sampling Location on Gradation Variability

3/8" #4 #8 #16

Sieve Size

Coldfeeds (n=45) Loose HMA (n=45)Cores (n=46)

Point of Sampling

In-Place Density–Compacted Mat

Thickness–Compacted Mat

Smoothness–Longitudinal Profile or Index

Sample Splitting

Coarse @ 3.79%ac Fine @ 5.21%ac

Outline Introduction Variability Sampling VariabilityTesting Variability Materials/Construction Variability Percent within Limit Typical Variability

Test or MeasurementMethod

Must be suitable for Field Applications– Inexpensive, easy set-up (mobile),

relative insensitive to environment, easy to analyze data

Understand Associated Variability! Specification Tolerances =

f(Variability) Wednesday, March 5, 14

Mix Design Volumetric

Superpave• Gmmi, d, m, AV, VMA, VFA, DP

Marshall• AV, VMA, VFA

Mixture Volumetrics All Specified Volumetric Properties

Calculated from Measured Material Properties (AASHTO or ASTM Test Methods):– Asphalt Content (AC)– Asphalt Cement Specific Gravity (Gb)– Combined Aggregate Specific Gravity (Gsb)– Bulk Specific Gravity of Compacted Mixture

(Gmb)– Theoretical Maximum Specific Gravity

Properties Calculated Mixture Properties are Function of

Calculated Property Variables the Property is a Function of

Gsb P, Gsb

Gse Pmm, Pb, Gmm, Gb

Gmm Pmm, Ps, Gse, Pb

Pba Gb, Gse, Gsb

Pbe Pb, Pba, Ps

AV Gmb, Gmm

VMA Gmb, Gsb, Ps

VFA VMA, AV%Gmmi Gmb, Gmm%Gmmm Gmb, Gmm

DP p0.075, Pbe

Question ?What are the combined effects of variability in material and mixture property measurements on calculated volumetric properties and optimum asphalt content selection?

AnswerPerform an analysis to find out

Analysis Show the effect of what is considered

acceptable variability in Gb, Gsb, Gmb, Gmm measurements on mixture volumetrics for both within and between laboratory conditions

19mm Superpave mix design data ASTM single-operator and multilaboratory

precision Monte Carlo Simulations Generate range of volumetric properties due to test

method variability Wednesday, March 5, 14

Test Method Precision and Precision Statements Account for

Inherent Test Method Variability (uncontrollable random error)

Single-operator, within lab, repeatability

Multilaboratory, between lab, reproducability

One-Sigma Limits (standard deviation, σ, 1S)

Precision and Bias

PreciseNot Bias

Precise, Biased

Not PreciseNot Bias

Precision and Bias

Precise Not Bias

Low VariabilityHigh Variability

Precision Statements are Based on Interlaboratory Studies

Not PreciseNot Bias

Within Laboratory Precision(Single Operator Precision)

* - “Duplicate specific gravity results by the same operator should not be considered suspect unless they differ more than 0.02.”

( ) - supplemental procedure for mixtures containing porous aggregate conditions (“dryback procedure”).

DesignationsDesignations

Description

Single Operator PrecisionSingle Operator PrecisionSingle Operator PrecisionSingle Operator Precision

AASHTOMethod

ASTMMethod

Description Standard Deviation(1S)

Standard Deviation(1S)

Acceptable Range of Two Results

(D2S)AASHTOMethod

ASTMMethod

Description

AASHTO ASTM AASHTO ASTM

T228 D70 Asphalt Cement Specific Gravity

0.0008 0.0008 0.0023 0.0023T85 C127 Coarse Aggregate Specific

Gravity0.009 0.009 0.025 0.025

T84 C128 Fine Aggregate Specific Gravity 0.011 0.011 0.032 0.032

T166 D2726Bulk Specific Gravity of Compacted Bituminous Specimens

* 0.0124 * 0.035

T209 D2041Theoretical Maximum Specific Gravity of Bituminous Mixture

0.0040(0.0064)

0.011(0.018)

* - “Duplicate specific gravity results by the same operator should not be considered suspect unless they differ more than 0.02.”

( ) - supplemental procedure for mixtures containing porous aggregate conditions (“dryback procedure”).

Between Laboratory Precision(Multilaboratory Precision)

DesignationsDesignations

Description

Multilaboratory PrecisionMultilaboratory PrecisionMultilaboratory PrecisionMultilaboratory Precision

AASHTOMethod

ASTMMethod

DescriptionStandard Deviation

Standard Deviation

Acceptable Range of Two Results

(D2S)AASHTOMethod

ASTMMethod

Description

AASHTO ASTM AASHTO ASTMT228 D70 Asphalt Cement Specific

Gravity0.0024 0.0024 0.0068 0.0068

T85 C127 Coarse Aggregate Specific Gravity

0.013 0.013 0.038 0.038T84 C128 Fine Aggregate Specific

Gravity0.023 0.023 0.066 0.066

T166 D2726Bulk Specific Gravity of Compacted Bituminous Specimens

* 0.0269 * 0.076

T209 D2041Theoretical Maximum Specific Gravity of Bituminous Mixture

0.0064(0.0193)

0.019(0.055)

Monte Carlo Simulation Process

Develop Probability Distributions from Mix Design Property Means and ASTM One-Sigma Limits for Each Input Variable

• eg.: Gmb and Gmm

Repeatedly Sample the Input Distributions (Gmb and Gmm) and Calculate the Output Variable to Generate an Output Distribution

• eg.: %AV Wednesday, March 5, 14

Monte Carlo Simulation

%AV = 100 xGmm - Gmb

GmmDistribution

Same Gmm

Distribution

GmbDistribution

%AVDistribution

Gmm and Gmb =inputs

%AV = output

Summary Plots

1.0000

2.0000

3.0000

4.0000

5.0000

6.0000

7.0000

8.0000

0.0525 0.0575 0.0625 0.0675

Asphalt Content (%)

-5%-1SDMean+1SD+95%

%AV Output Distribution at

5.25% AC%AV Output

Distribution at 5.75% AC

%AV Output Distribution at

6.25% AC%AV Output

Distribution at 6.75% AC

Within Laboratory Air Voids

1.0000

2.0000

3.0000

4.0000

5.0000

6.0000

7.0000

8.0000

0.0525 0.0575 0.0625 0.0675

Asphalt Content (%)

-5% -1SDMean +1SD+95%

0.7% AC

Between Laboratory Air Voids

5.25 5.75 6.25 6.75

Asphalt Content (%)

-5% -1SDMean +1SD+95%

1.4% AC

Summary and Conclusions

“Acceptable” Variability Associated with the Measurement of the Properties Required to Determine HMA Volumetrics can Have a Significant Impact on Calculated Volumetric Properties

Within Laboratory Test Method Variability May Lead to Differences in AV and VMA of 1.0+% for Any Given Mix Design

These Differences Translate into Potential Differences of 0.7% in Optimum Asphalt Content Selection

Between Laboratory Test Method Variability May Lead to Differences in AV and VMA of over 2.0% for Any Given Mix Design

These Differences Translate into Potential Differences of Over 1.0% in Optimum Asphalt Content Selection

Outline Introduction Variability Sampling Variability Testing VariabilityMaterials/Construction

Variability Percent within Limit

Outline Introduction Variability Sampling Variability Testing Variability Materials/Construction VariabilityPercent within Limit Typical Variability

PWL and PD Concept

PDUPDL

PWL = 100 - (PDU + PDL)

In Terms of Area of the Distribution

Percent Within LimitsLot X s PWL

1 5.0 0.20 96

2 5.0 0.40 68

Target Value 5.0Limits ± 0.4

Asphalt Binder Content4.2 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.8

Upper limit

Lower limit

target

DataSpec

1 5.0 0.20 96

2 5.0 0.40 68

Upper limit

Lower limit

target

DataSpec

1 5.0 0.20 96

2 5.0 0.40 68

Upper limit

Lower limit

target

DataSpec

Percent within LimitsLot X s PWL

1 5.0 0.20 96

2 4.8 0.20 84

Lot 1Lot 2

Target Value 5.0

Limits ± 0.4 target

Upper limitsLower limit

Outline Introduction Variability Sampling Variability Testing Variability Materials/Construction Variability Percent within LimitTypical Variability

Typical VariabilityProperty Standard

Deviation(s)Asphalt Content, % 0.25% pass 4.75 mm, % 3.0% pass 2.36 mm to 0.15 mm, %

2.0% pass 0.075 mm, % 0.7Air Voids, % 1.0VMA, % 1.5VFA, % 5.0

Outline Introduction Variability Sampling Variability Testing Variability Materials/Construction Variability Percent within Limit Typical Variability Summary

Why Understand Testing Variability

Provide quality product to our customer

Remain in businessEstablish specification limitsPredict pay factors

60 Asphalt Binder Contents

4.3 % 5.1 %4.7 %4.5 % 4.9 %

+3 s99.7%

4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6Asphalt Content

QC/QA and Variability

Variability = variability + variability + variability

(QC/QA) (sampling) (test method) (mat./const.)

S2QC/QA = S2

s + S2t + S2

Sampling Number of Samples and Size Sampling Location

– Random– *Stratified Random– Systematic – uniform intervals– Quota – @ change in process– Judgment

Sampling Method Acceptance OR Source Approval OR QC OR

Independent Assurance/Verification of Test Procedures

Monte Carlo Simulation

%AV = 100 xGmm - Gmb

GmmDistribution

Same Gmm

Distribution

GmbDistribution

%AVDistribution

Gmm and Gmb =inputs

%AV = output

PWL and PD Concept

PDUPDL

PWL = 100 - (PDU + PDL)

In Terms of Area of the Distribution

Typical Variability

Property Standard Deviation(s)Asphalt Content, % 0.25

% pass 4.75 mm, % 3.0% pass 2.36 mm to 0.15 mm, %

2.0% pass 0.075 mm, % 0.7Air Voids, % 1.0VMA, % 1.5VFA, % 5.0

Questions?

Understanding Testing Variability - RMACES...T228 D70 Asphalt Cement Speciﬁc Gravity 0.0024 0.0024...

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