Understanding our local populations

Richard Wilson, Sandwell Primary Care Trust

A presentation given at State of the Region: Implications of Population Change event, 31 March

2009.

This presentation forms part of the Observatory’s ongoing State of the Region dialogue between policy makers and researchers on the theme of

population change.

Understanding our local populationsRichard WilsonSandwell PCT

Health warning

• The following presentation contains:– Dodgy, dodgier statistics– The dodgiest statistics of them all

• PROJECTIONS– Widely held views stereotypical views that

are not necessarily those of the author– It is designed to stimulate debate!

The chaff

• “According to Government figures, immigration at current levels will add about 7 million to the population of England by 2031 – equivalent to 7 cities the size of Birmingham.

• “In 2009 England is expected to overtake Holland as the most crowded country in Europe.

• “According to Government statistics, a new home for immigrants needs to be built every six minutes.

• “Immigration directly added a million people to the UK's population in just five years - 2003 to 2007.

• “There was a net inflow of 2.3 million people to the UK between 1991 and 2006. 8% came from the new East European members of the EU”

What is it all about?

Our population has constantly been changing

New wave of population movement

Somethings never change

Or do they?

Real problems

• Future economy– Barriers to employment for Pakistanis

and Bangladeshis– Lowest levels of education attainment

British Asians

10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

<4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+

White Asian/ Asian British: (Indian, Pakistani,Bangl.,Other Asian)

Black British

10 5 0 5 10 15

<4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90+

White Black/ Black British: (Black Caribbean, Black African, Other)

Real problems

• Future economy– Barriers to employment for Pakistanis

and Bangladeshis– Ageing population

Ageing population

Real problems

• Future economy– Barriers to employment for Pakistanis

and Bangladeshis– Ageing population

• Increasing unemployment in over 50s• Increasing isolation

Problem

No one single source of population data exists that can answer the question of

“who lives where?”

Data problems

• ONS estimates– Do not go low enough

• Super Output Area level remain experimental– Not timely enough

• Based on single points in time and nationally derived adjustments

– Not reflect the diversity of the population• Age and gender• Not ethnicity and place of birth…

We need

• Need to be able to understand our population:– How it is changing?– Where is the change greatest?– Which age groups are changing quickest?– What the new household/family structures?– Where are the new people coming from? – How will the changing population affect

current and future plans?

What would be good

• Systems that are regularly updated• Contain ethnicity, country of birth,

residential and other demographic information

• Needs to be as detailed as governance allows

• Importantly must have enough information to enable linkage or triangulation of results

Potential sources

• Registration systems– ONS Births and Deaths– Child health systems– School census– GP registrations– Worker registration schemes

• Management systems– Council, Health, Community Safety…

Newcomers

• Where do they live?• Where do they work?• Magnitude of change

– Counted them in

NINos to GP registrations

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Poland Ira

q

Zimba

bwe

Iran

Somali

a

Afghan

istan

Slovak

ia

Lithu

ania

Czech

Rep

ublic

Latvi

a

Hunga

ry

Roman

ia

Estonia

Sloven

ia

Bulgari

a

Nationality

Reg

istr

atio

ns

NINO regs 07/08

GP regs 07/08

Newcomers

• Where do they live?• Where do they work?• Magnitude of change

– Counted them in– But can we counted them out?

Measurement error

• ONS Estimate of resident population– 287,000

• M-Connect GP Registrations– 319,000

% Difference

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Per

cent

age

(%)

Males Females

M-Connect higher

ONS higher

Government Line

Q369 Mr Clappison: … you do not accept the prediction which has been made by the Office for National Statistics, the Government Actuaries Department and the United Nations that the population of this country is going to hit 71 million within a different timescale in the case of those bodies. You do not accept that, do you, or do you?

Mr Woolas: No. Q370 Mr Clappison: No; right. Those are the figures which come from the independent Office for

National Statistics, the Government's own actuary. You are saying that they are not right. Mr Woolas: No, I am not saying that they are not right, Mr Clappison. Q371 Mr Clappison: Are you saying that the population is not going to hit 71 million by, say,

2031? Mr Woolas: That is my belief. Q372 Mr Clappison: If that is your belief, it is a very unsatisfactory situation for people who are

concerned about this issue, where there are statistics coming from an independent body and from the Government's own actuary and the Government itself is saying that they are wrong. Can you write to us and let us have your prediction for what the population

Mr Woolas: No, I cannot, because you are misinterpreting, I think deliberately. The ONS figures give an extrapolation of population based on the previous number of the last few years. I think it is three from memory. Those population figures define population as being those people who are in the country for 12 months or more. Clearly, that, therefore, includes overseas students, it includes everybody who comes into the country under the points-based system. Those people are here temporarily for up to five years. So to extrapolate and to turn that into a projection is a false logic. Secondly, my view is that, even if it were a projection, not an extrapolation, the policy measures that we are taking would avoid that increase in population.

(Minister of State for borders and immigration, Home Affairs Select Committee, 17 March)

Data paralysis• “As a human being, one has been endowed

with just enough intelligence to be able to see clearly how utterly inadequate that intelligence is when confronted with what exists.” (A Einstein)

• Avoiding getting transfixed on whether “it is fit for purpose?”– Aware of the limitations– At what point will they become important– The effect of possible under/over-estimation on

decisions results• Do not let the pursuit of perfection mean you

ignore the merely ok

Going Forward

• Not just about data– Strategic commitment– Information Sharing Protocol– Governance

• How much data do we need?• How accurate do we have to be?• How do we work together?

“Statistics are like a lamp post to a

drunk man, more for support

than illumination” David Brent

Contact details

Richard WilsonHead of Information and IntelligenceSandwell Primary Care TrustE richard.wilson@sandwell- pct.nhs.ukT 0121 612 1659Web www.sandwell- pct.nhs.uk

Stephen HowarthDeputy Chief ExecutiveWest Midlands Regional ObservatoryE stephen.howarth@wmro.orgT +44 (0)121 202 3258Web www.wmro.orgBlog http://wmro.wordpress.com

Rosie DayResearch AnalystWest Midlands Regional ObservatoryE rosie.day@wmro.orgT +44 (0)121 202 3286Web www.wmro.orgBlog http://wmro.wordpress.com