Iva Ridjan Skov,

Assistant Professor

iva@plan.aau.dk

Department of Development and

Planning

Sustainable Energy Planning

Group

UNCERTAINTIES AND RISKS IN PLANNING

FUTURE GAS GRIDS AND STORAGES

2

EU GOALS FOR DECARBONISATION

• Decarbonising the energy system istechnically and economically feasible

• In the long run, all scenarios that achievethe emissions reduction target arecheaper than the continuation of currentpolicies.

• Early infrastructure investments cost less.Immediately replacing old infrastructurewith low-carbon alternatives can avoidmore costly changes in the future.

• A European approach is expected toresult in lower costs and more secureenergy supplies when compared toindividual national schemes.

EMISSION TRENDS

0,60

0,70

0,80

0,90

1,00

1,10

1,20

1,30

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

1990=1

Energy Industries Industry Transport Residential Other Total

3

C O 2 e m i s s i o n s 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 1 2 * S o u r c e : E U t r a n s p o r t i n f i g u r e s – s t a t i s t i c a l p o c k e t b o o k 2 0 1 4

4

EUROPE HAS PASSED THE POINT OF PEAK GAS CONSUMPTION…

Source: Eurostat

5

Source: The Danish Energy Agency and Energinet.dk 2014.

PROJECTION OF GAS SUPPLIES FROM THE NORTH SEA 2015-2042

NORD STREAM DEBATE

6

TOTAL FAILURE OF THE EU DECARBONISING GOALS!

HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE

7

http://www.heatroadmap.eu/

8

Gas Grid

Natural Gas

Natural Gas

BiogasBiogas

Gasified BiomassGasified Biomass

SyngasSyngas

GAS GRID VS. DH GRID

DH

Power PlantsPower Plants

IndustryIndustry

Waste Incin‐eration

Waste Incin‐eration

Biofuel PlantsBiofuel Plants

Hydrogen PlantsHydrogen Plants

Solar ThermalSolar 

Thermal

Geo‐thermalGeo‐

thermal

Heat PumpsHeat Pumps

Electric BoilersElectric Boilers

H i g h q u a l i t y e n e r g y f o r a l o w q u a l i t y d e m a n d

L o w q u a l i t y e n e r g y f o r a l o w q u a l i t y d e m a n d

9

DO WE NEED THE GAS INFRASTRUCTURE?

WHICH GAS TYPES WE WILL USE?

10

Methane Biogas Syngas Hydrogen

Renewable gases for future energy system:

• Biogas from anaerobic digestion or upgraded with H2• Gases from biomass gasification• Power-to-gas technology

WHICH CAN BE TRANSPORTED?

Hydrogen – max 15-20% in the gas gr ids, in DK only 2%

Syngas – explosive mixture cannot be transported, need dedicated network 11

Methane Biogas Syngas Hydrogen

Liquid fuelsMethane

POTENTIAL FOR USING THEM IN THE SYSTEM

12

MethaneBiogas Syngas

CHALLENGES AND RISK

• Risk of lock-in in the existing technologies

• Methane as central fuel in the system

• Do we mind conversion losses from methane

to other fuels?

• Going l iquid cannot be avoided

• Rethinking the role of the gas network

13

Iva Ridjan Skov,

Assistant Professor

iva@plan.aau.dk

Department of Development and

Planning

Sustainable Energy Planning

Group

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION