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LOCAL LABOR TRENDS PACKET JULY 2009

The Mission of the Oregon Employment Department

Support Business Promote Employment

“The Oregon Employment Department is an equal opportunity program. Auxiliary aids and services are

available upon request to individuals with disabilities.”

Please send address changes to: lmipubs.emp@state.or.us,

or call (503) 947-1204

July 2009

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the U.S. increased in May, growing to 9.4 percent from April’s rate of 8.9 percent. The statewide rate in May increased to 12.4 percent in May from its revised April rate of 11.8 percent. Local News In May, both Benton County and Linn County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rates increased. Benton County’s rate grew to 9.0 percent in May, from its revised rate of 8.8 percent in April. Linn County’s rate increased from a revised rate of 15.1 percent in April to 16.3 percent in May. Benton County’s May unemployment rate of 9.0 percent was higher than its rate of 4.0 percent in May 2008. Linn County’s May rate of 16.3 percent was higher than its rate of 6.7 percent in May 2008. Linn and Benton counties, combined, had an unadjusted unemployment rate of 12.3 percent in May, increasing from 12.1 percent in April. The two-county area’s combined unemployment rate of 12.3 percent was slightly higher than the statewide unadjusted May rate of 12.1 percent.

Economic Indicators Unemployment Rates

Seasonally United States Raw Adjusted May 2009 9.1% 9.4% Apr. 2009 8.6% 8.9% Oregon May 2009 12.1% 12.4% Apr. 2009 11.9% 11.8% Benton May 2009 8.4% 9.0% Apr. 2009 8.5% 8.8% Linn May 2009 15.3% 16.3% Apr. 2009 14.9% 15.1%

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Preliminary Estimates)

Annual Benton Employment change Total Employment 37,460 -1,940 Manufacturing 3,550 -910 Trade, Trans., & Utl. 4,010 -270 Private Ed. & Health 5,370 10 Government 12,950 160 Linn Total Employment 39,580 -3,280 Manufacturing 6,990 -1,160 Trade, Trans., & Utl. 8,890 -430 Private Ed. & Health 4,620 120 Government 7,780 -40

Consumer Price Index (CPI) United States 213.9 Yearly % Change (May 2009) -1.3% Portland/Salem OR-WA MSA 215.4 Annual Average 2008 +3.3%

http://www.bls.gov/cpi

Benton County: Employment Change, May 2009

-1,000 -900 -800 -700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200

Manufacturing

Trade, Trans., and Utilities

Financial Activities

Prof. and Business Services

Private Educ. and HealthServices

Leisure and Hospitality

Other Private

Government

Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment

past month

past year

2 Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis Benton-Linn Trends • July 2009

Benton County’s unemployment rate was the lowest unemployment rate among Oregon’s 36 counties. Linn County was significantly higher, ranking 30th among the counties. In Linn County, nonfarm employment decreased over the past 12 months by 3,280 jobs. Benton County’s employment declined 1,940 jobs since May 2008. Labor Force Summary In May, there were an estimated 3,617 Benton County residents unemployed in a civilian labor force of 43,063. The number of residents unemployed increased 2,101 since May 2008. Benton County had 39,446 employed residents including payroll employees, the self-employed, farm workers, and a number of residents commuting outside of the county for work. In May, there were an estimated 8,603 Linn County residents unemployed in a civilian labor force of 56,236. There were 47,633 Linn County residents employed in May including payroll employees, self-employed, farm workers, and residents commuting outside the county for work. Overall, there were 5,152 more residents unemployed than in May 2008. Nonfarm Payroll Employment In Benton County, May total nonfarm employment was 37,460. Private-sector employment decreased 340 over the month, while the public sector added 50. Benton County’s employment loss in May was larger than normal; total nonfarm employment decreased by 290 jobs, when an increase of 300 jobs

Linn County: Employment Change, May 2009

-1,200 -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200

Manufacturing

Construction

Private Educ. and Health Services

Other Private

Government

past month

past year

Nonfarm payroll employment statistics are by place of work and estimate how many jobs have been added or lost in an area. They measure an area’s economic health and are based on a survey of employers. Nonfarm payroll employment shows how many people were employed in a given area, on average, during the month.

Benton/Linn Labor Trends is published by the Workforce and Economic Research Division of the Oregon Employment Department. Benton/Linn Labor Trends also can be found on the Publications page at www.QualityInfo.org. Material contained in this publication is in the public domain and may be reproduced without permission. Please credit Benton/Linn Labor Trends, Oregon Employment Department.

Laurie Warner, Director Graham Slater, Administrator for Workforce and Economic Research Patrick O’Connor, Regional Economist Will Summers, Workforce Analyst Albany (541) 967-2171 x 244 Sue Hankins, Field Office Manager Albany (541) 967-2171 Corvallis (541) 757-4261 Lebanon (541) 451-1934

Please direct address changes to: Oregon Employment Department Workforce and Economic Research 875 Union St NE Salem OR 97311 Phone (503) 947-1204 TDD (503) 947-1391 e-mail lmipubs.emp@state.or.us The Oregon Employment Department is an equal opportunity employer. Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities.

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 3 Benton-Linn Trends • July 2009

would be expected. The difference results in a 590-job seasonally adjusted decrease between April and May. Over the past 12 months, Benton County has shed 1,940 jobs, declining 4.9 percent. The only private-sector industry adding jobs in Benton County over the past 12 months was education and health services (+10 jobs). All other private sectors have had flat or declining employment since May 2008. Manufacturing has recorded the largest employment decline over the past year. The sector shed 330 jobs in May and it has lost 910 jobs since May 2008. In the public sector, federal government has gained 10 jobs over the past 12 months and state government added 140 jobs. Local government employment increased 10 over the past 12 months. Linn County's total nonfarm payroll employment decreased in May, shedding 490 jobs. May’s employment declined more than normal. The county typically sheds about 40 jobs in May; Linn County’s seasonally adjusted employment in May declined 450. Linn County’s employment shrunk by 3,280 (-7.7%) since May 2008. The private-sector industries adding the most jobs over the past 12 months in Linn County were education and health services (+120); and nondurable goods manufacturing (+40 jobs). Wood product manufacturing’s employment decreased in May, losing 140 jobs. The industry shed 350 jobs since May 2008. Since its peak in August 2006, wood product manufacturing employment has declined 950. Outlook Both counties have experienced significant over-the-year losses in employment, and unemployment rates increases. The national recession has led to job losses in key industries such as manufacturing and construction. High unemployment rates are likely to persist for the remainder of 2009. These preliminary estimates will be revised as new data from businesses becomes available. News From Around the Region Material gathered from published, nonconfidential sources. Nypro Oregon Inc. – a maker of plastic molding products for the health care, electronics, telecommunications, and consumer markets – will close its Corvallis plant and lay off 62 workers by November 30. Earth Smart Store opened in Corvallis. It offers environmentally friendly products such as tubs made from recycled tires, glasses made from soda and beer bottles, cloth shopping bags, and items made from bamboo and organic cotton. Rockin’ Trolley opened in Lebanon. It offers yogurt smoothies, sandwiches, cinnamon buns, quesadillas, and breakfast burritos. Two restaurants in Lebanon – Quiznos and Popeyes – closed last month.

Oregon Employment Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent in May compared with 11.8 percent (as revised) in April. The 12.4 percent reading was the highest on record since the current series began in 1976, topping the previous high mark of 12.1 percent set in November 1982. In May, 240,615 Oregonians were unemployed. In May 2008, 103,441 Oregonians were unemployed. While the May unemployment rate is at a historically high level, the increase in Oregon’s unemployment rate has moderated over the last two months. Between March and May, the rate rose from 11.9 percent to 12.4 percent. This is an increase of 0.5 percentage point over a two-month period. This moderation in the rise of the unemployment rate followed a trend of very rapid monthly increases between October 2008 (when the rate was 7.2%) and March 2009. During this five-month period, the rate rose by an average of nearly a full percentage point per month. In May, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined by 100 jobs, following a drop of 8,100 (as revised) in April. The May employment figures were by far the smallest job loss of any month over the past 10 months. In May, most of the major industries followed their normal seasonal patterns. This was in contrast with the prior eight months, when many industries cut employment sharply below normal seasonal expectations. In May, all of the major industries except two saw their employment change by within 600 jobs of their normal seasonal movement. Manufacturing was one exception, where employment continued to fall below normal seasonal patterns. It cut 1,300 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. Leisure and hospitality was the other exception, as it grew by 1,600 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. National Employment The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percentage points. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000 in May to 132.2 million. The decline was about half of the average monthly job loss for the prior six months (-643,000). Since the recession

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates

Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

Oregon

Linn County

Benton County

began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.0 million. In May, job losses continued to be widespread across major industry sectors. Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while the rate of decline moderated in several industries, including construction, professional and business services, and retail trade. Manufacturing employment fell by 156,000 in May. Job losses occurred in most component industries. Three durable goods industries – motor vehicles and parts (-30,000), machinery (-26,000), and fabricated metal products (-19,000) – accounted for about half of the overall decline in factory employment. Since its most recent peak in February 2000, employment in motor vehicles and parts has fallen by about 50 percent. Mining shed 11,000 jobs in May, about the same number as in April. Employment in construction decreased by 59,000 in May compared with an average monthly job loss of 117,000 for the previous six months. In May, employment fell in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-30,000) and in residential construction of buildings (-11,000). Job losses in professional and business services moderated in May, with the industry shedding 51,000 jobs. This compares with an average loss of 136,000 jobs per month in the prior six months. The temporary help services industry, which had been dropping an average of 73,000 jobs per month over this period, saw little employment change in May (-7,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality was flat over the month. The industry had lost an average of 39,000 jobs per month during the prior six months. Retail trade employment was down 18,000 in May; job cutbacks in retail trade have moderated markedly in the past two months. Employment in wholesale trade fell by 22,000 over the month, with over half of the decrease (-14,000) among durable goods wholesalers. Financial activities employment continued to decrease in May (-30,000). Securities lost 10,000 jobs and real estate lost 9,000. Employment in credit intermediation continued to trend down, although the May job loss was well below the average job loss for the prior six months. Employment in information decreased by 24,000 in May. Health care employment increased by 24,000 in May, about in line with its average monthly job growth so far in 2009. Employment in government changed little in May. The change in total nonfarm employment for March was revised from -699,000 to -652,000, and the change for April was revised from -539,000 to -504,000. Oregon’s Small Businesses Charles Johnson, Economist, Charlie.B.Johnson@state.or.us, (503) 947-1274 It is often said that small businesses are the primary driver of America’s economy – they bring innovation, progress, and employment. In fact, the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) claims that 99.7 percent of all U.S. firms are small businesses, and that these firms have created between 60 and 80 percent of all new jobs over the past ten years. If that’s the case, then monitoring the health and employment levels of small businesses in Oregon may provide interesting insights into the future of Oregon’s economy.

How Small is Small? Unfortunately there is no widely used definition of a small business. The SBA generally defines a small business as any firm employing fewer than 500 employees, although the standard varies depending on what industry the firm is in. In Oregon’s case, all but 265 firms employed fewer than 500 people in 2008. This definition would make any analysis of “small business” trends of little value. However, classifying employers with fewer than 100 employees as small firms allows us to zoom in on some interesting business dynamics that occur throughout the state. Large Firms Grow Faster and Pay More In the first quarter of 2008, Oregon had 91,548 firms that claimed to have at least one employee. These firms employed about 1.4 million workers. As seen in Graph 1, the vast majority of the state’s firms employ between one and nine people. However, firms that employ 100 people or more account for nearly half of all private employment. These larger firms also account for the majority of the state’s private payrolls, indicating that working at a larger firm may have some economic benefits. The average Oregon firm employed 16 people in the first quarter of 2008, up from 15 during the same period of 2003. Over the five-year period between the first quarters of 2003 and 2008, employment levels at Oregon’s largest firms (100+ employees) grew by 12 percent, compared to only 8-percent growth at firms which had between one and nine employees. The average annual payroll per employee was $39,808 during the first three months of last year for firms that reported at least one employee. Annualized average wages ranged from a high of $45,816 at firms which employed 100 or more people to a low of $30,956 among the smallest employers (1-9 employees). Between 2003 and 2008, payrolls expanded substantially, with the average pay per employee increasing 21 percent over the period. Interestingly, the growth rate of an average employee’s pay was almost identical among the smallest and largest firms (21 and 22%, respectively) but was slower at firms that employed between 10 and 99 people.

Oregon Firms and Employment by Selected Size Class, First Quarter 2008

1-9 Employees 10-19 Employees 20-99 Employees 100+ Employees

Employer Size Class

alFirmsEmployment

Graph 1

Small Businesses Play a Crucial Role in Rural Oregon Smaller firms play a crucial role in the economies of rural counties throughout the state. In Oregon’s non-metro areas, the smallest firms (1-9 employees) account for 23 percent of payroll employment compared to just 14 percent for the metro areas. Large firms are concentrated in metro areas. In the state’s 11 metropolitan counties, firms with 100 employees or more account for more than half of the reported payroll employment compared with just 35 percent in the state’s non-metro counties. Similarly, large firms in Oregon’s metro areas provide 59 percent of county payrolls compared to just 44 percent in the non-metro areas. Even more interesting – wages for employees at small firms – those with 99 or fewer workers – grew faster over the past five years in the non-metro counties than in the metro counties! Graph 2 shows wage growth rates for metro and non-metro counties by firm size class. Regardless of growth rates, however, small businesses tend to pay less than large firms, and this disparity is larger in non-metro than in metro areas. As any rural Oregonian can tell you, the best wages are found at the largest employers. In non-metro counties, employees of firms with nine or fewer employees earn just 60 percent of their counterparts’ wages at large firms (100+ employees), compared to 67 percent in the metro counties. More Small Businesses Likely in Coming Years During the robust economic expansion between 2003 and 2008, the average size of an Oregon business grew, wages and employment increased in every size class, and small business receipts were concentrated in industries related to the housing boom. It is likely that the current economic recession will stop most, if not all, of these trends. We don’t yet know if this recession is affecting large and small businesses differently. It is likely, however, that the average size of an Oregon business will shrink, as most new employers are typically in the smallest size class. It is also likely that both wages and employment will decrease due to the recession, in both small and large firms. It is difficult to anticipate which industry may drive small business incomes in the near future, but the economic landscape those firms face will no doubt be very different from that of the past half-decade. During a recession many people start their own business. Even though many small businesses have closed and more will continue to close in the near future, the number of small businesses should continue to grow in coming years. The new businesses may be smaller than those that closed and

Growth in Pay per Employee by Size Class Oregon Private Employers 2003q1 - 2008q1

Employer Size Class

Non-metro

Graph 2

more capable of using the experience and knowledge of their small workforce to carve out their own niches. Regardless which industry helps renew economic growth in Oregon’s small businesses, it is likely that historical employment trends will continue into the future – small businesses will continue to be a driving force behind the creation of jobs in Oregon.

LINN COUNTY LABOR FORCE SUMMARY (by place of residence)

May Apr. May Apr. May2009 2009 2008 2009 2008

Civilian Labor Force 56,236 56,803 54,536 -567 1,700 Unemployment 8,603 8,465 3,451 138 5,152 Percent of Labor Force 15.3% 14.9% 6.3% XX XX Total Employment 47,633 48,338 51,085 -705 -3,452Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate 16.3% 15.1% 6.7% XX XX

LINN COUNTY NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT(by place of work)

TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT 39,580 40,070 42,860 -490 -3,280

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT 39,730 40,180 43,030 -450 -3,300

TOTAL PRIVATE 31,800 32,180 35,040 -380 -3,240 Mining and Logging 360 360 430 0 -70 Construction 1,990 1,930 2,520 60 -530 Manufacturing Total 6,990 7,180 8,150 -190 -1,160 Durable Goods 4,730 4,910 5,930 -180 -1,200 Wood Product Manufacturing 1,520 1,660 1,870 -140 -350 Primary Metal Manufacturing 1,800 1,860 2,100 -60 -300 Nondurable Goods 2,260 2,270 2,220 -10 40 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 8,890 8,960 9,320 -70 -430 Wholesale Trade 1,400 1,450 1,550 -50 -150 Retail Trade 4,470 4,450 4,710 20 -240 Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 3,020 3,060 3,060 -40 -40 Information 430 430 470 0 -40 Financial Activities 1,320 1,340 1,520 -20 -200 Professional and Business Services 2,800 2,920 3,580 -120 -780 Administrative and Support Services 1,580 1,630 2,160 -50 -580 Educational and Health Services 4,620 4,600 4,500 20 120 Health Care and Social Assistance 4,220 4,220 4,090 0 130 Health Care 3,560 3,560 3,410 0 150 Leisure and Hospitality 3,050 3,100 3,090 -50 -40 Accomodation and Food Services 2,740 2,690 2,830 50 -90 Other Services 1,350 1,360 1,460 -10 -110 Government 7,780 7,890 7,820 -110 -40 Federal Government 390 420 370 -30 20 State Government 1,060 1,060 1,060 0 0 Local Government 6,330 6,410 6,390 -80 -60 Local Government Educational Services 4,240 4,340 4,230 -100 10 Local Government Excluding Education 2,090 2,070 2,160 20 -70

LABOR-MANAGEMENT DISPUTES 0 0 0 0 0

Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Data are by place of work and cover full- and part-time employees who worked or received pay for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. The data exclude the self-employed, volunteers, unpaid family workers, and domestics. "Natural Resources" includes only Logging (NAICS 1133).

Current Labor Force and Industry Employment

-Change from-

The most recent month is preliminary, the prior month is revised. Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Labor Force Status: Civilian labor force includes employed and unemployed individuals 16 years and older by place of residence. Employed includes nonfarm payroll employment, self-employed, unpaid family workers, domestics, agriculture, and labor disputants. Unemployment rate is calculated by dividing unemployed by civilian labor force.

CORVALLIS (Benton County) MSA LABOR FORCE SUMMARY(by place of residence)

Civilian Labor Force 43,063 43,695 43,091 -632 -28 Unemployment 3,617 3,695 1,516 -78 2,101 Percent of Labor Force 8.4% 8.5% 3.5% XX XX Total Employment 39,446 40,000 41,575 -554 -2,129Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate 9.0% 8.8% 4.0% XX XX

CORVALLIS MSA (Benton County) NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT(by place of work)

TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT 37,460 37,750 39,400 -290 -1,940Seasonally Adjusted Total nonfarm employment 36,740 37,330 38,640 -590 -1,900

TOTAL PRIVATE 24,510 24,850 26,610 -340 -2,100 Mining, logging, and Construction 1,180 1,180 1,450 0 -270 Manufacturing Total 3,550 3,880 4,460 -330 -910 Durable Goods 3,200 3,490 4,070 -290 -870 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 4,010 4,020 4,280 -10 -270 Information 910 900 990 10 -80 Financial Activities 1,300 1,310 1,430 -10 -130 Professional and Business Services 3,320 3,320 3,560 0 -240 Educational and Health Services 5,370 5,410 5,360 -40 10 Health Care and Social Assistance 5,060 5,090 5,040 -30 20 Leisure and Hospitality 3,650 3,610 3,800 40 -150 Other Services 1,220 1,220 1,280 0 -60 Government 12,950 12,900 12,790 50 160 Federal Government 590 580 580 10 10 State Government 9,370 9,370 9,230 0 140 State Government Educational Services 9,030 9,030 8,840 0 190 Local Government 2,990 2,950 2,980 40 10 Local Government Educational Services 1,550 1,550 1,630 0 -80

Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Data are by place of work and cover full- and part-time employees who worked or received pay for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. The data exclude the self-employed, volunteers, unpaid family workers, and domestics. "Natural Resources" includes only logging (NAICS 1133).

-Change from-

July 2009

The Latest Employment Data The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 12.4 percent in May, an increase from April (11.8%). The nation’s rate increased to 9.4 percent in May. The total number of people employed in Oregon – estimated from a survey of households – fell by nearly 6,000 from April to May and the number of people unemployed increased by about 2,000. Total employment was about 87,000 lower this May than in May 2008. Nonfarm payroll employment in Oregon – estimated from a survey of businesses – climbed by almost 10,000 jobs in May, but was about 93,000 lower than one year before. Lincoln County The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 12.4 percent in May, essentially the same as April (12.0%). Lincoln County’s rate was 5.7 percent last May. The estimated number of people unemployed fell by 52 to 2,541. Estimated total employment climbed by 271 to 20,458. This was 1,122 fewer than the previous May. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment climbed by 120 jobs in May. A gain of 250 jobs is normal for the month but nonfarm employment in the county increased in May by 370 to 17,850. The private sector added 330 jobs and governments added 40 jobs – state government added 30 of those. Leisure and hospitality added 210 jobs.

Seasonally Adjusted Lincoln May 12.4% April 12.0% Oregon May 12.4% April 11.8% United States May 9.4% April 8.9% Average Pay Per Job – 2008 Lincoln County $28,281 Oregon $40,846

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Monthly Annual Change Change

United States +0.3% 1.3%

Portland MSA +2.7% (July-Dec. 2008)

Consumer Confidence

Monthly Index Change

April 54.9 +14.1

Federal Reserve Data Monthly Rate Change

Prime Rate May 20 3.25% 0

Oregon GDP Index 163.03 -2.0%

2 Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis Central Coast Trends • July 2009

Estimated total nonfarm employment in Lincoln County was 1,010 below the level one year before. Trade and leisure and hospitality lost the most jobs over the year. Around the County News Times, June 10, 2009 The Samaritan Toledo Clinic added one physician to its staff. News Times, June 17, 2009 Heritage Woods Studio is a new woodworking studio and gallery in Toledo where customers can watch artists create pieces. South Lincoln County News, June 17, 2009 Outta Gas Pizza is a new delivery-only pizza restaurant in Yachats. News Guard, June 17, 2009 Northwest Winds is a new kite store in Lincoln City. The store is owned by the Gomberg Kite Productions manufacturing company. News Guard, June 24, 2009 Birds and Be is a new art store in Lincoln City that specializes in origami. News Times, June 24, 2009 Pacific Seafoods Market and Deli is a new store along Newport's Bayfront. A new Chamber of Commerce chapter is starting in Lincoln County. The organization is called the Central Oregon Coast Chamber of Commerce. National Consumer Expenditures Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Between 2006 and 2007, average annual consumer expenditures rose by nearly 2.6 percent to reach $49,638 per consumer unit (similar to a household). There was an average of 2.5 people per

May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09

Oregon

Lincoln County, OR

May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09

Lincoln County: Year-to-Year Employment Change May 2007 to May 2009

Central Coast Labor Trends is published by the Workforce and Economic Research Division of the Oregon Employment Department. Central Coast Labor Trends also can be found on the Publications page at www.QualityInfo.org. Material contained in this publication is in the public domain and April be reproduced without permission. Please credit Central Coast Labor Trends, Oregon Employment Department.

Laurie Warner, Director Graham Slater, Administrator for Workforce and Economic Research Erik Knoder, Regional Economist Will Summers, Workforce Analyst Albany (541) 967-2171 x244 Judy Fontanini, Field Office Manager Newport (541) 265-8891 Lincoln City (541) 994-6992

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 3 Central Coast Trends • July 2009

consumer unit. The larger percentage increases in spending occurred in entertainment (13.6%) and education (6.4%). Average spending on housing increased 3.4 percent and it increased 3.1 percent on healthcare in 2007. Average spending on alcoholic beverages declined 8.0 percent in 2007 and cash contributions dropped an average of 2.6 percent. Graph 1 shows the distribution of annual expenditures in 2007. Some specific spending categories showed larger changes. Average spending on vehicle insurance rose nearly 21 percent in 2007 and the amount spent on eggs shot up 16 percent. Spending related to transportation and petroleum increased in 2007. The average spending on fuel oil and other fuels increased 9.4 percent, spending on gasoline and motor oil went up 7.0 percent and public transportation expenditures increased 6.5 percent. Different consumers spent their money differently. Consumers with less income – the bottom 20 percent of the income distribution – spent relatively more of their money on housing (40.5% vs. 32.5%), food (14.8% vs. 10.8%) and health care (7.2% vs. 4.4%) than did the top 20 percent of consumers by income. The highest income group spent relatively more on transportation, entertainment, cash contributions and pensions. In fact, the two categories showing the greatest differences between spending by the rich and the poor were rental housing and pensions. As a group, the poorest one-fifth spent 15.3 percent of their income on rent and only 2.2 percent on pensions and social security; the richest one-fifth spent only 1.3 percent of their income on rent but 13.8 percent on pensions and social security. Graph 2 shows the average share of expenditures on various categories for the lowest 20 percent of income earners and the highest 20 percent of earners. The lowest fifth averaged $20,471 in expenditures in 2007 and the highest averaged $96,752 in expenditures. Some economists have estimated that consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). The Bureau of Labor

U.S. Average Annual Expenditures 2007

Miscellaneous, 1.6%

Cash contributions, 3.7%

Personal insurance and pensions, 10.8%

Tobacco products and smoking supplies,

Education, 1.9%

Reading, 0.2%

Personal care products and services,

1.2%Entertainment, 5.4%

Health care, 5.7%

Transportation, 17.6% Apparel and services, 3.8%

Food, 12.4%

Housing, 34.1%

Alcoholic beverages, 0.9%

Graph 1

Expenditure Shares by Income Quintile 2007

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Alcoholic beverages

Housing

Apparel and services

Transportation

Health care

Entertainment

Personal care products and services

Reading

Education

Tobacco products and smoking supplies

Miscellaneous

Cash contributions

Personal insurance and pensions

Highest 20 percent (Averge Expenditures: $96,752)

Lowest 20 percent (Average Expenditures: $20,471)

Graph 2

Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey collects this information. A sample of consumers is surveyed and either asked to record their spending in a diary or they are interviewed once per quarter over five consecutive quarters. The data also are used for regular revisions of the consumer price index. The data are available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Website at www.bls.gov. National Employment The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percentage points. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000 in May to 132.2 million. The decline was about half of the average monthly job loss for the prior six months (-643,000). Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.0 million. In May, job losses continued to be widespread across major industry sectors. Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while the rate of decline moderated in several industries, including construction, professional and business services, and retail trade. Manufacturing employment fell by 156,000 in May. Job losses occurred in most component industries. Three durable goods industries – motor vehicles and parts (-30,000), machinery (-26,000), and fabricated metal products (-19,000) – accounted for about half of the overall decline in factory employment. Since its most recent peak in February 2000, employment in motor vehicles and parts has fallen by about 50 percent. Mining shed 11,000 jobs in May, about the same number as in April. Employment in construction decreased by 59,000 in May compared with an average monthly job loss of 117,000 for the previous six months. In May, employment fell in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-30,000) and in residential construction of buildings (-11,000). Job losses in professional and business services moderated in May, with the industry shedding 51,000 jobs. This compares with an average loss of 136,000 jobs per month in the prior six months. The temporary help services industry, which had been dropping an average of 73,000 jobs per month over this period, saw little employment change in May (-7,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality was flat over the month. The industry had lost an average of 39,000 jobs per month during the prior six months.

Interest rates provide clues about the future of the economy. Lower interest rates generally decrease the cost of doing business and tend to promote growth in output, employment, and prices. The prime rate held steady from May to June at 3.25 percent. The Fed reduced the target rate for its funds to 0.25 percent in mid December – essentially as low as it can go. Conventional 30-year mortgage rates rose sharply to about 5.38 percent as buyers shifted from bonds to equities. Rates on 10-year Treasury notes also rose nearly half a percentage point to 3.75 percent. The rate for three-month Treasury bills remained low at around 0.17 percent. The consumer price index increased by 0.3 percent in May. Rising energy prices contributed to the change. The index showed a decline of 1.3 percent over the previous 12 months. The Conference Board’s leading index for the national economy increased 1.2 percent in May – the second consecutive monthly increase. It was pulled down by the drop in weekly hours worked and unemployment claims but it was buoyed by the increase in the interest rate spread, consumer expectations and the increase in building permits. The consumer confidence index rose sharply to 54.9 in May from 40.8 in April. It was the third consecutive month with an increase.

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 5 Central Coast Trends • July 2009

Retail trade employment was down 18,000 in May; job cutbacks in retail trade have moderated markedly in the past two months. Employment in wholesale trade fell by 22,000 over the month, with over half of the decrease (-14,000) among durable goods wholesalers. Financial activities employment continued to decrease in May (-30,000). Securities lost 10,000 jobs and real estate lost 9,000. Employment in credit intermediation continued to trend down, although the May job loss was well below the average job loss for the prior six months. Employment in information decreased by 24,000 in May. Health care employment increased by 24,000 in May, about in line with its average monthly job growth so far in 2009. Employment in government changed little in May. The change in total nonfarm employment for March was revised from -699,000 to -652,000, and the change for April was revised from -539,000 to -504,000. Oregon Employment Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent in May compared with 11.8 percent (as revised) in April. The 12.4 percent reading was the highest on record since the current series began in 1976, topping the previous high mark of 12.1 percent set in November 1982. In May, 240,615 Oregonians were unemployed. In May 2008, 103,441 Oregonians were unemployed. While the May unemployment rate is at a historically high level, the increase in Oregon’s unemployment rate has moderated over the last two months. Between March and May, the rate rose from 11.9 percent to 12.4 percent. This is an increase of 0.5 percentage point over a two-month period. This moderation in the rise of the unemployment rate followed a trend of very rapid monthly increases between October 2008 (when the rate was 7.2%) and March 2009. During this five-month period, the rate rose by an average of nearly a full percentage point per month. In May, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined by 100 jobs, following a drop of 8,100 (as revised) in April. The May employment figures were by far the smallest job loss of any month over the past 10 months. In May, most of the major industries followed their normal seasonal patterns. This was in contrast with the prior eight months, when many industries cut employment sharply below normal seasonal expectations. In May, all of the major industries except two saw their employment change by within 600 jobs of their normal seasonal movement. Manufacturing was one exception, where employment continued to fall below normal seasonal patterns. It cut 1,300 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. Leisure and hospitality was the other exception, as it grew by 1,600 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis.

(by place of residence) Change From Change From

May April May April May2009 2009 2008 2009 2008

Civilian labor force 22,999 22,780 22,737 219 262 Unemployed 2,541 2,593 1,157 -52 1,384 Unemployment rate 11.0% 11.4% 5.1% -0.4% 5.9% Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 12.4% 12.0% 5.7% 0.4% 6.7% Total Employment 20,458 20,187 21,580 271 -1,122

LINCOLN COUNTY NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT(by place of work)

May April May April May

TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT 2009 2009 2008 2009 2008Total nonfarm 17,850 17,480 18,860 370 -1,010Total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted 17,720 17,600 18,720 120 -1,000

TOTAL PRIVATE 13,640 13,310 14,540 330 -900 Mining and Logging 140 140 160 0 -20 Construction 820 810 910 10 -90 Manufacturing 1,070 1,040 1,140 30 -70 Durable Goods 220 210 260 10 -40 Nondurable Goods 850 830 880 20 -30 Food Manufacturing 290 270 300 20 -10 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 3,270 3,190 3,480 80 -210 Retail Trade 2,780 2,750 2,960 30 -180 Food and Beverage Stores 660 670 720 -10 -60 Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 310 280 350 30 -40 Information 200 200 220 0 -20 Financial Activities 870 870 890 0 -20 Professional and Business Services 900 890 970 10 -70 Educational and Health Services 1,830 1,850 1,750 -20 80 Leisure and Hospitality 3,970 3,760 4,420 210 -450 Accommodation and Food Services 3,750 3,600 4,220 150 -470 Accommodation 1,640 1,520 1,900 120 -260 Food Services and Drinking Places 2,110 2,080 2,320 30 -210 Other Services 570 560 600 10 -30 GOVERNMENT 4,210 4,170 4,320 40 -110 Federal Government 320 320 270 0 50 State Government 770 740 790 30 -20 Local Government 3,120 3,110 3,260 10 -140 Indian tribal 1,010 1,010 1,100 0 -90 Local Education 890 870 850 20 40 Local Government, excluding Education and Tribal 1,220 1,230 1,310 -10 -90LABOR-MANAGEMENT DISPUTES 0 0 0 0 0

LINCOLN COUNTY CURRENT LABOR FORCE AND INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

-Change from-

Labor Force Status: Civilian labor force includes employed and unemployed individuals 16 years and older by place of residence. Employed includes nonfarm payroll employment, self-employed, unpaid family workers, domestics, agriculture, and labor disputants. Unemployment rate is calculated by dividing unemployed by civilian labor force.Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Data are by place of work and cover full- and part-time employees who worked or received pay for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. The data exclude the self-employed, volunteers, unpaid family workers, and domestics.

The most recent month is preliminary, the prior month is revised. Prepared by the Oregon Employment Department in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

July 2009 Central and South Central Oregon

May 2009 Employment Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates in all Central and South Central Oregon counties increased in May. Individual county rates ranged from 12.8 percent in Lake County to 20.9 percent in Crook County. The state unemployment rate rose to a historic high of 12.4 percent for the month, a 0.6 percentage point increase from the revised April rate of 11.8 percent. Region 10 Crook County The county’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 20.9 percent in May – an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the revised April estimate of 19.5 percent. One year ago the rate was 9.2 percent, for a year-over-year increase of 11.7 percentage points. The unemployment rate in Crook County has been increasing for almost two years. The county added 150 jobs in May. The county typically sees an increase of approximately 120 jobs this time of year. This may be an indication that some seasonal hiring is occurring later this year than in previous years. The two private-sector industries that posted the most substantial gains in May were wood product manufacturing (+60) and leisure and hospitality (+40). Other services was the only industry to lose jobs in May (-10). The county recorded 820 fewer jobs this May than in May 2008 – a decline of 11.7 percent. The county has experienced year-over-year employment declines for nearly two years.

Seas. Adj. Raw United States May 2009 9.4% 9.1% Apr. 2009 8.9% 8.6%

Oregon May 2009 12.4% 12.1% Apr. 2009 11.8% 11.9%

Crook May 2009 20.9% 18.4% Apr. 2009 19.5% 19.3%

Deschutes (Bend MSA) May 2009 16.7% 15.2% Apr. 2009 15.6% 15.3%

Jefferson May 2009 16.4% 14.8% Apr. 2009 16.1% 16.3%

Klamath May 2009 16.3% 14.1% Apr. 2009 14.7% 14.8%

Lake May 2009 12.8% 11.9% Apr. 2009 12.5% 13.4% Consumer Price Index (CPI) 1982-1984 = 100 All Urban Consumers United States May 2009 213.9 April 2009 213.2 May 2008 216.6 Year % change -1.3% Portland-Salem, OR-WA MSA July – December 2008 216.2 % Change 2.7%

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2 Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis Central Oregon Labor Trends • June 2009

Industries showing the largest year-over-year declines were wholesale trade (-47.7%) and manufacturing (-19.4%). Three industries reported year-over-year gains: information (+33.3%), federal government (+9.7%), and education and health services (+2.7%). Deschutes County (Bend MSA) The county’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 16.7 percent in May from a revised rate of 15.6 percent in April. The rate is more than double the rate one year ago. It is once again the highest rate since at least 1990, when the seasonally adjusted series began. The county added 1,000 jobs in May, which was slightly higher than the expected growth between April and May. Several private industries added jobs between April and May. The industry with the largest gain was accommodation and food services (+630), followed by professional and business services (+170), and mining, logging, and construction (+120). Only one private industry had an over-the-month job loss: education and health services (-10). In the public sector, local government added 100 jobs, state government added 10 jobs, and federal government lost 20. In May, Deschutes County posted an over-the-year decline of 4.1 percent in total employment. Accommodation and food services (+2.5%) was the only private-sector industry to show a year-over-year gain. The largest losses were in mining, logging, and construction (-15.0%); durable goods manufacturing (-14.3%); and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-7.2%).

Oregon and Central Oregon Unemployment Rates May 2004 - May 2009 (seasonally adjusted)

May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09

OregonCrookDeschutesJefferson

Central Oregon Labor Trends is published by the Workforce and Economic Research Division of the Oregon Employment Department. Central Oregon Labor Trends also can be found on the Publications page at www.QualityInfo.org. Material contained in this publication is in the public domain and may be reproduced without permission. Please credit Central Oregon Labor Trends, Oregon Employment Department.

Laurie Warner, Director Graham Slater, Administrator for Workforce and Economic Research Carolyn Eagan, Regional Economist Jan Swander, Workforce Analyst Bend (541) 388-6076 Randal Norris, Field Office Manager Klamath Falls (541) 883-5630 Laurel Werhane, Field Office Manager Bend (541) 388-6070 Redmond (541) 548-8196 Madras (541) 475-2382 Prineville (541) 447-8076

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 3 Central Oregon Labor Trends • June 2009

Jefferson County The county’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 16.4 percent in May, up 0.3 percentage point from April’s revised rate of 16.1 percent. One year ago the rate was 6.3 percentage points lower, at 10.1 percent. The unemployment rates in the last several months have been the highest since at least 1990. Jefferson County added 180 jobs from April to May, which is more than is expected this time of year. Nearly half of all private-sector industries experienced employment gains in May. Manufacturing added 70 jobs and leisure and hospitality added 40. Four other industries saw a gain of 10 jobs each. The only industry with an over-the-month loss in May was transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-10). In the public sector, federal government remained steady while state and local government each added 20 jobs in May. The county recorded a 2.2 percent year-over-year job decline in May. The largest losses were in wood product manufacturing (-25.4%) and financial activities (-5.3%). Two industries showed year-over-year employment gains: federal government (+13.3%) and wholesale trade (+4.5%). Region 11 Klamath County The county’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose 1.6 percentage points to 16.3 percent from the revised April rate of 14.7 percent. One year ago the rate was 8.3 percent. This month’s rate is the highest recorded since the seasonally adjusted series began in 1990. The county gained 610 jobs in May. This exceeded the seasonally expected increase of 520 jobs. The majority of private-sector industries added employment over the month. The largest gain was in leisure and hospitality (+340), followed by construction (+70); manufacturing; retail trade; and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+30 each). There were three private industries that posted small job losses: financial activities, information, and wholesale trade (-10 each). Overall the public sector added jobs in May. Federal government added 70 and local government added 40, while state government lost 20 jobs. Once again, Klamath County’s total employment was down over the year, with a total job loss of 850 since May 2008. The county’s employment has declined for most of the last two years. Some of the industries continuing to show over-the-year job declines included: durable goods manufacturing

Oregon and South Central Oregon Unemployment Rates May 2004 - May 2009 (seasonally adjusted)

OregonKlamathLake

(-24.2%), information (-16.7%), and professional and business services (-4.8%). On the other hand, there were three industries with notable year-over-year job gains: wholesale trade (+10.7%), federal government (+9.0%), and general merchandise stores (+4.8%). Lake County The county’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 12.8 percent in May, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the April rate of 12.5 percent. One year ago the unemployment rate was 7.9 percent. May’s rate is lower than the historical high of 13.0 percent recorded in February 1993. There were five private-sector industries that each added 10 jobs from April to May: mining and logging; construction; manufacturing; trade, transportation, and utilities; and leisure and hospitality. The public sector also added 50 jobs in May. Lake County saw a small over-the-year decrease in employment. Several industries recorded over-the-year job losses: manufacturing (-50), construction (-20), and financial activities (-10). Gains were seen in federal government (+20), leisure and hospitality, local government, and professional and business services (+10 each). Oregon Employment Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent in May compared with 11.8 percent (as revised) in April. The 12.4 percent reading was the highest on record since the current series began in 1976, topping the previous high mark of 12.1 percent set in November 1982. In May, 240,615 Oregonians were unemployed. In May 2008, 103,441 Oregonians were unemployed. While the May unemployment rate is at a historically high level, the increase in Oregon’s unemployment rate has moderated over the last two months. Between March and May, the rate rose from 11.9 percent to 12.4 percent. This is an increase of 0.5 percentage point over a two-month period. This moderation in the rise of the unemployment rate followed a trend of very rapid monthly increases between October 2008 (when the rate was 7.2%) and March 2009. During this five-month period, the rate rose by an average of nearly a full percentage point per month. In May, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined by 100 jobs, following a drop of 8,100 (as revised) in April. The May employment figures were by far the smallest job loss of any month over the past 10 months. In May, most of the major industries followed their normal seasonal patterns. This was in contrast with the prior eight months, when many industries cut employment sharply below normal seasonal

Oregon and U.S. Unemployment Rates May 2003 - May 2009 (seasonally adjusted)

May-03 Nov-03 May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09

U.S.Oregon

expectations. In May, all of the major industries except two saw their employment change by within 600 jobs of their normal seasonal movement. Manufacturing was one exception, where employment continued to fall below normal seasonal patterns. It cut 1,300 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. Leisure and hospitality was the other exception, as it grew by 1,600 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. National Employment The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percentage points. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000 in May to 132.2 million. The decline was about half of the average monthly job loss for the prior six months (-643,000). Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.0 million. In May, job losses continued to be widespread across major industry sectors. Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while the rate of decline moderated in several industries, including construction, professional and business services, and retail trade. Manufacturing employment fell by 156,000 in May. Job losses occurred in most component industries. Three durable goods industries – motor vehicles and parts (-30,000), machinery (-26,000), and fabricated metal products (-19,000) – accounted for about half of the overall decline in factory employment. Since its most recent peak in February 2000, employment in motor vehicles and parts has fallen by about 50 percent. Mining shed 11,000 jobs in May, about the same number as in April. Employment in construction decreased by 59,000 in May compared with an average monthly job loss of 117,000 for the previous six months. In May, employment fell in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-30,000) and in residential construction of buildings (-11,000). Job losses in professional and business services moderated in May, with the industry shedding 51,000 jobs. This compares with an average loss of 136,000 jobs per month in the prior six months. The temporary help services industry, which had been dropping an average of 73,000 jobs per month over this period, saw little employment change in May (-7,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality was flat over the month. The industry had lost an average of 39,000 jobs per month during the prior six months. Health care employment increased by 24,000 in May, about in line with its average monthly job growth so far in 2009. Employment in government changed little in May. The change in total nonfarm employment for March was revised from -699,000 to -652,000, and the change for April was revised from -539,000 to -504,000.

Tourism Employment Still on the Rise in Deschutes County Deschutes County is synonymous with vacation. From golfing to waterskiing, rock climbing to snowboarding, not to mention fishing and shopping; the county has it all. The question is: “How will the current economic downturn impact tourist travel to Central Oregon this summer?” Employment data indicate that establishments in the leisure and hospitality industry have a positive outlook for the summer. This is true also for establishments in food services and accommodation, a sub-sector of leisure and hospitality. Summer gains in these industries have been sizable since 2003. While 2008 summer gains were muted compared to prior years, the industries continued to add jobs on an over-the-year basis. One reason may be that at least 23 new restaurants opened since the beginning of 2008. Some moved into one of the many locations vacated by restaurants that closed in Bend’s downtown while others opened in Bend’s Old Mill District and newly developed commercial areas in Sisters and Redmond. Additional hiring could be attributed to the major resorts in Central Oregon. Each has reported that it expects to hire this summer. Sunriver Resort reported that it eliminated its international hiring program which in years past hired nearly 100 people because of the limited availability of local hires. Black Butte Ranch reported needing 230 seasonal workers this year. In Deschutes County, total nonfarm payroll decreased by 6.8 percent over the past two years. The county has seen year-over-year job losses for 18 months. However, employment in leisure and hospitality is not following this trend, as shown in the graph. Leisure and hospitality employment peaked in August 2008. As would be expected, employment in accommodation and food services peaked in the same month. Since August 2008, both industries have a year-over-year increase in jobs each month through May this year. In May 2009, the industry employed 10,360 people or 15.4 percent of nonfarm payroll employment. More than three-quarters of that employment was in accommodation and food services (7,890 jobs). In years past, the largest annual increases in leisure and hospitality employment occurred between April and June. The next month will be telling for the industry in Deschutes County. If employment levels continue to rise even slightly, it will be a bright spot in a county with 300 days of sunshine.

Year-Over-Year Changes in Employment Levels

Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09

Total nonfarm Leisure and hospitality Accommodation and food services

Business Happenings in Central and South Central Oregon The following information is from published nonconfidential sources.

Crook County

Cozy Coffee opened in Prineville. It is run by local students wanting to gain work experience. Central Oregonian, 5-27-09

The Furniture Outlet opened in Prineville. Central Oregonian, 6-10-09

Crook County School District cut 45 positions including 22 teachers. Twenty-three certified positions were eliminated with resignations and retirements. Central Oregonian, 6-13-09

Edward Jones financial consultants will open in Madras. It will employ two people. Madras Pioneer, 6-17-09

Deschutes County (Bend MSA)

Bella Moda, a high-end fashion store with affordable prices, opened in Bend. Cascade Business News, 5-20-09

Skyfire Studio, a marketing and design firm, opened in Sisters. The Nugget, 5-26-09

A new restaurant, 900 Wall, opened in Bend. Bend Bulletin, 5-27-09

Hola! restaurant and Strictly Organic coffee shop will open at the Old Mill District in Bend. Bend Bulletin, 5-28-09

Slick’s Que Co., a barbecue restaurant, opened in Sisters. The Nugget, 6-2-09

PV Powered in Bend, fueled by a multi-million dollar investment and the extension of a government tax-credit, will double or triple its operation. It employs 55 people and plans to hire up to 10 more. Bend Bulletin, 6-5-09

S4 Energy Solutions, a joint venture of Bend-based InEnTec and Houston-based Waste Management Inc., is opening an office in Bend’s Old Mill District. It plans to hire more than 20 chemical and other engineers. Bend Bulletin, 6-7-09

Brother Jon’s Public House will open in Bend this summer. Bend Bulletin, 6-16-09

Abigail’s on Main, a gift and specialty store, opened in Sisters. It offers items crafted by local and regional artists. The Nugget, 6-23-09

Jefferson County

Twinkle Toes Spa opened in Madras. Madras Pioneer, 5-20-09

Geno’s Italian Grill opened at a new location in Madras and added six workers. Madras Pioneer, 5-27-09

Klamath County

JCS Variety opened in Klamath Falls. Herald and News, 5-24-09

Basin Brewing Supply opened in Klamath Falls. Herald and News, 5-24-09

Klamath County School District will cut 45 teaching positions for the 2009-2010 school year. Herald and News, 6-6-09

Mollies, a 24-hour restaurant and lounge in Klamath Falls, closed. Herald and News, 6-12-09

Lake County

Federal stimulus dollars will put as many as 75 low-income youth to work this summer in Klamath and Lake counties through the Central Intergovernmental Councils’ Youth Employment Program. Herald and News, 5-6-09

Change From Change FromMay Apr. May Apr. May

2009 2009 2008 2009 2008Labor Force Status (Household Data)Civilian labor force 10,074 10,112 9,883 -38 191 Unemployed 1,856 1,949 799 -93 1,057 Unemployment rate 18.4% 19.3% 8.1% XX XX Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 20.9% 19.5% 9.2% XX XX Employed 8,218 8,163 9,084 55 -866

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Data)Total nonfarm payroll employment 6,210 6,060 7,030 150 -820 Total private 4,880 4,770 5,610 110 -730 Mining and logging 70 60 70 10 0 Construction 380 370 400 10 -20 Manufacturing 830 820 1,030 10 -200 Wood product manufacturing 680 620 850 60 -170 Trade, transportation, and utilities 1,390 1,370 1,870 20 -480 Wholesale trade 460 450 880 10 -420 Retail trade 520 510 530 10 -10 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 410 410 460 0 -50 Information 40 40 30 0 10 Financial activities 260 260 270 0 -10 Professional and business services 320 300 330 20 -10 Educational and health services 750 740 730 10 20 Leisure and hospitality 650 610 680 40 -30 Other services 190 200 200 -10 -10 Government 1,330 1,290 1,420 40 -90 Federal government 340 330 310 10 30 State government 190 190 190 0 0 Local government 800 770 920 30 -120Labor-management disputes 0 0 0 0 0

2009 2009 2008 2009 2008Labor Force Status (Household Data)Civilian labor force 86,796 86,192 82,049 604 4,747 Unemployed 13,186 13,183 5,254 3 7,932 Unemployment rate 15.2% 15.3% 6.4% XX XX Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 16.7% 15.6% 7.0% XX XX Employed 73,610 73,009 76,795 601 -3,185

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Data)Total nonfarm payroll employment 67,120 66,120 69,980 1,000 -2,860 Total private 58,170 57,260 60,930 910 -2,760 Mining, logging, and construction 5,370 5,250 6,320 120 -950 Manufacturing 4,650 4,620 5,230 30 -580 Durable goods 3,780 3,760 4,410 20 -630 Trade, transportation, and utilities 12,620 12,520 13,250 100 -630 Wholesale trade 1,560 1,550 1,670 10 -110 Retail trade 9,900 9,820 10,330 80 -430 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 1,160 1,150 1,250 10 -90 Information 1,590 1,580 1,680 10 -90 Financial activities 4,870 4,850 5,070 20 -200 Professional and business services 7,350 7,180 7,700 170 -350 Educational and health services 9,080 9,090 9,120 -10 -40 Leisure and hospitality 10,360 9,910 10,180 450 180 Accommodation and food services 8,510 7,880 8,300 630 210 Other services 2,280 2,260 2,380 20 -100 Government 8,950 8,860 9,050 90 -100 Federal government 820 840 850 -20 -30 State government 1,150 1,140 1,180 10 -30 Local government 6,980 6,880 7,020 100 -40 Local education 4,120 4,110 4,160 10 -40Labor-management disputes 0 0 0 0 0

Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Data are by place of work and cover full- and part-time employees who worked or received pay for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. The data exclude the self-employed, volunteers, unpaid family workers, and domestics. "Natural resources" includes only Logging (NAICS 1133).

Crook County Current Labor Force and Industry Employment

Deschutes County (Bend MSA) Current Labor Force and Industry Employment

2009 2009 2008 2009 2008Labor Force Status (Household Data)Civilian labor force 9,790 9,832 9,360 -42 430 Unemployed 1,453 1,602 854 -149 599 Unemployment rate 14.8% 16.3% 9.1% XX XX Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 16.4% 16.1% 10.1% XX XX Employed 8,337 8,230 8,506 107 -169

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Data)Total nonfarm payroll employment 5,910 5,730 6,040 180 -130 Total private 3,170 3,030 3,350 140 -180 Mining and logging 20 20 20 0 0 Construction 120 110 120 10 0 Manufacturing 840 770 1,010 70 -170 Wood product manufacturing 500 460 670 40 -170 Trade, transportation, and utilities 880 880 880 0 0 Wholesale trade 230 230 220 0 10 Retail trade 540 530 550 10 -10 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 110 120 110 -10 0 Information 20 20 20 0 0 Financial activities 180 180 190 0 -10 Professional and business services 130 130 130 0 0 Educational and health services 240 230 240 10 0 Leisure and hospitality 540 500 540 40 0 Other services 200 190 200 10 0 Government 2,740 2,700 2,690 40 50 Federal government 170 170 150 0 20 State government 360 340 360 20 0 Local government 2,210 2,190 2,180 20 30 Indian tribal 900 890 870 10 30Labor-management disputes 0 0 0 0 0

Jefferson County Current Labor Force and Industry Employment

2009 2009 2008 2009 2008Labor Force Status (Household Data)Civilian labor force 32,469 32,015 30,929 454 1,540 Unemployed 4,571 4,735 2,228 -164 2,343 Unemployment rate 14.1% 14.8% 7.2% XX XX Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 16.3% 14.7% 8.3% XX XX Employed 27,898 27,280 28,701 618 -803

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Data)Total nonfarm payroll employment 23,430 22,820 24,280 610 -850 Total private 17,650 17,130 18,460 520 -810 Mining and logging 140 120 160 20 -20 Construction 1,060 990 1,100 70 -40 Manufacturing 1,730 1,700 2,220 30 -490 Durable goods 1,470 1,440 1,940 30 -470 Wood product manufacturing 1,000 980 1,320 20 -320 Nondurable goods 260 260 280 0 -20 Trade, transportation, and utilities 4,600 4,550 4,590 50 10 Wholesale trade 930 940 840 -10 90 Retail trade 2,950 2,920 3,020 30 -70 Food and beverage stores 570 560 570 10 0 General merchandise stores 870 860 830 10 40 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 720 690 730 30 -10 Information 200 210 240 -10 -40 Financial activities 1,020 1,030 1,010 -10 10 Professional and business services 2,190 2,180 2,300 10 -110 Educational and health services 3,100 3,100 3,140 0 -40 Leisure and hospitality 2,800 2,460 2,900 340 -100 Other services 810 790 800 20 10 Government 5,780 5,690 5,820 90 -40 Federal government 970 900 890 70 80 State government 1,530 1,550 1,500 -20 30 Local government 3,280 3,240 3,430 40 -150 Local education 1,710 1,680 1,770 30 -60Labor-management disputes 0 0 0 0 0

Labor Force Status (Household Data)Civilian labor force 3,701 3,691 3,537 10 164 Unemployed 439 494 262 -55 177 Unemployment rate 11.9% 13.4% 7.4% XX XX Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 12.8% 12.5% 7.9% XX XX Employed 3,262 3,197 3,275 65 -13

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Data)Total nonfarm payroll employment 2,230 2,130 2,260 100 -30 Total private 1,170 1,120 1,230 50 -60 Mining and logging 40 30 40 10 0 Construction 60 50 80 10 -20 Manufacturing 240 230 290 10 -50 Trade, transportation, and utilities 350 340 350 10 0 Retail trade 240 240 240 0 0 Information 30 30 30 0 0 Financial activities 60 60 70 0 -10 Professional and business services 70 70 60 0 10 Educational and health services 90 90 90 0 0 Leisure and hospitality 190 180 180 10 10 Other services 40 40 40 0 0 Government 1,060 1,010 1,030 50 30 Federal government 270 240 250 30 20 State government 190 190 190 0 0 Local government 600 580 590 20 10Labor-management disputes 0 0 0 0 0

Klamath County Current Labor Force and Industry Employment

Lake County Current Labor Force and Industry Employment

July 2009

Latest Local Area Employment Data Douglas County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 18.3 percent in May compared to 17.3 percent in April. The rate this May was 9.1 percentage points higher than the 9.2 percent recorded in May of last year. May’s unadjusted rate (16.9%) is the highest May rate since 1982 when it was 17.6 percent. Douglas County has the third highest seasonally adjusted county unemployment rate in the state. The number of unemployed decreased by 198 from April, and was 4,198 higher than in May 2008, at 8,099. Nonfarm Payroll Employment In May, total nonfarm payroll employment increased 300 when, seasonally, an increase of 350 was expected. Total nonfarm employment was 2,230 lower than in May of last year, for an annualized loss of 5.9 percent. In May, manufacturing increased by 80. In durable goods, wood products had an increase of 80 that was countered by

Seasonally Douglas Raw Adjusted April 2009 17.2% 17.3% May 2009 16.9% 18.3% Oregon April 2009 11.9% 11.8% May 2009 12.1% 12.4% United States April 2009 8.6% 8.9% May 2009 9.1% 9.4%

Nonfarm Payroll Employment May 2009

Douglas Total 35,750 Wood Product Mfg. 2,610 Other Mfg. 1,740 Construction 1,540 Trade 4,760 Information 310 Financial Activities 1,490 Services 12,120 Government 8,750 Consumer Price Index (CPI)

1982-1984 = 100 All Urban Consumers

United States May 2009 213.856 Year change -1.3%

Portland-Salem MSA July - Dec. 2008 216.159 Year Change +2.7% Jan. - June 2009 available 08/14/09

Oregon Douglas County

2 Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis Douglas County Trends • July 2009

a loss of 10 in other durable goods. Nondurable goods rose by 10. In the private nonmanufacturing sectors in May there were seasonal gains in construction (+30) and leisure and hospitality (+40). Elsewhere, there were gains in mining and logging (+10), retail trade (+10), financial activities (+10), and education and health services (+20). Losses were recorded in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-10) and professional and business services (-20). Government added 130 in May. Federal government had a seasonal gain of 30. The gain of 100 in local government was due to gains in tribal (+20), local education (+60) and a seasonal gain in other local government (+20). Around the County South County Skate Shop has opened in Myrtle Creek. -The News-Review (Roseburg, OR) 06/07/09 Marla Kay’s Café will open in Canyonville. -The News-Review (Roseburg, OR) 06/14/09 Seven Feathers Casino Resort has opened a 154-room expansion of its hotel in Canyonville allowing it to add 50 jobs. -The News-Review (Roseburg, OR) 06/19/09 Localvore Fresh Oregon Foods opened in Sutherlin. It offers locally produced meat and produce. -The News-Review (Roseburg, OR) 06/21/09 Kustom Akoustiks has opened in Roseburg. It specializes in custom installation of sound systems in vehicles. -The News-Review (Roseburg, OR) 06/28/09

(2,500)

(2,000)

(1,500)

(1,000)

Douglas County: Employment Change from Previous YearMay 2004 to May 2009

Douglas County Labor Trends is published by the Workforce and Economic Research Division of the Oregon Employment Department. Douglas County Labor Trends also can be found on the Publications page at www.QualityInfo.org. Material contained in this publication is in the public domain and may be reproduced without permission. Please credit Douglas County Labor Trends, Oregon Employment Department.

Laurie Warner, Director Graham Slater, Administrator for Workforce and Economic Research Brian Rooney, Regional Economist Rob Abbott, Workforce Analyst Roseburg (541) 440-3344 x222 Shirley Pyle, Field Office Manager Roseburg (541) 440-3344

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 3 Douglas County Trends • July 2009

Family Home Furnishings held a grand opening July 6 in Roseburg. -The News-Review (Roseburg, OR) 06/28/09 Denny’s restaurant has opened at Rice Hill near Roseburg. It employs 74 full- and part-time workers. -The News-Review (Roseburg, OR) 06/28/09 Oregon Employment Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent in May compared with 11.8 percent (as revised) in April. The 12.4 percent reading was the highest on record since the current series began in 1976, topping the previous high mark of 12.1 percent set in November 1982. In May, 240,615 Oregonians were unemployed. In May 2008, 103,441 Oregonians were unemployed. While the May unemployment rate is at a historically high level, the increase in Oregon’s unemployment rate has moderated over the last two months. Between March and May, the rate rose from 11.9 percent to 12.4 percent. This is an increase of 0.5 percentage point over a two-month period. This moderation in the rise of the unemployment rate followed a trend of very rapid monthly increases between October 2008 (when the rate was 7.2%) and March 2009. During this five-month period, the rate rose by an average of nearly a full percentage point per month. In May, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined by 100 jobs, following a drop of 8,100 (as revised) in April. The May employment figures were by far the smallest job loss of any month over the past 10 months. In May, most of the major industries followed their normal seasonal patterns. This was in contrast with the prior eight months, when many industries cut employment sharply below normal seasonal expectations. In May, all of the major industries except two saw their employment change by within 600 jobs of their normal seasonal movement. Manufacturing was one exception, where employment continued to fall below normal seasonal patterns. It cut 1,300 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. Leisure and hospitality was the other exception, as it grew by 1,600 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. National Employment The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates, 1998 to Present

Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

U.S. Oregon

4 Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis Douglas County Trends • July 2009

number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percentage points. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000 in May to 132.2 million. The decline was about half of the average monthly job loss for the prior six months (-643,000). Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.0 million. In May, job losses continued to be widespread across major industry sectors. Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while the rate of decline moderated in several industries, including construction, professional and business services, and retail trade. Manufacturing employment fell by 156,000 in May. Job losses occurred in most component industries. Three durable goods industries – motor vehicles and parts (-30,000), machinery (-26,000), and fabricated metal products (-19,000) – accounted for about half of the overall decline in factory employment. Since its most recent peak in February 2000, employment in motor vehicles and parts has fallen by about 50 percent. Mining shed 11,000 jobs in May, about the same number as in April. Employment in construction decreased by 59,000 in May compared with an average monthly job loss of 117,000 for the previous six months. In May, employment fell in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-30,000) and in residential construction of buildings (-11,000). Job losses in professional and business services moderated in May, with the industry shedding 51,000 jobs. This compares with an average loss of 136,000 jobs per month in the prior six months. The temporary help services industry, which had been dropping an average of 73,000 jobs per month over this period, saw little employment change in May (-7,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality was flat over the month. The industry had lost an average of 39,000 jobs per month during the prior six months. Retail trade employment was down 18,000 in May; job cutbacks in retail trade have moderated markedly in the past two months. Employment in wholesale trade fell by 22,000 over the month, with over half of the decrease (-14,000) among durable goods wholesalers. Financial activities employment continued to decrease in May (-30,000). Securities lost 10,000 jobs and real estate lost 9,000. Employment in credit intermediation continued to trend down, although the May job loss was well below the average job loss for the prior six months. Employment in information decreased by 24,000 in May. Health care employment increased by 24,000 in May, about in line with its average monthly job growth so far in 2009. Employment in government changed little in May. The change in total nonfarm employment for March was revised from -699,000 to -652,000, and the change for April was revised from -539,000 to -504,000.

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 5 Douglas County Trends • July 2009

Civilian Labor Force 47,971 48,141 46,121 -170 1,850 Unemployment 8,099 8,297 3,901 -198 4,198 Unemployment rate 16.9% 17.2% 8.5% -0.3 8.4 Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 18.3% 17.3% 9.2% 1.0 9.1 Total Employment 39,872 39,844 42,220 28 -2,348

DOUGLAS COUNTY NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT(by place of work)

May Apr. May Apr. MayEmployment in thousands 2009 2009 2008 2009 2008

TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT 35,750 35,450 37,980 300 -2,230

TOTAL PRIVATE 27,000 26,830 28,960 170 -1,960 Mining and Logging 780 770 860 10 -80 Construction 1,540 1,510 1,780 30 -240 Manufacturing 4,350 4,270 5,250 80 -900 Durable Goods 4,010 3,940 4,930 70 -920 Wood Product Manufacturing 2,610 2,530 3,170 80 -560 Nondurable Goods 340 330 320 10 20 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 6,410 6,410 6,790 0 -380 Wholesale Trade 600 600 630 0 -30 Retail Trade 4,160 4,150 4,420 10 -260 Food and Beverage Stores 1,060 1,060 1,080 0 -20 General Merchandise Stores 1,020 1,030 950 -10 70 Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 1,650 1,660 1,740 -10 -90 Information 310 310 350 0 -40 Financial Activities 1,490 1,480 1,570 10 -80 Professional and Business Services 2,820 2,840 2,900 -20 -80 Educational and Health Services 4,540 4,520 4,550 20 -10 Leisure and Hospitality 3,600 3,560 3,680 40 -80 Food Services and Drinking Places 2,750 2,720 2,870 30 -120 Other Services 1,160 1,160 1,230 0 -70 Government 8,750 8,620 9,020 130 -270 Federal Government 1,630 1,600 1,510 30 120 State Government 1,130 1,130 1,160 0 -30 Local Government 5,990 5,890 6,350 100 -360 Local Government Tribal 1,040 1,020 1,200 20 -160 Local Education 3,100 3,040 3,200 60 -100 Local Government, excluding Education 1,850 1,830 1,950 20 -100

DOUGLAS COUNTY LABOR FORCE SUMMARY* (by place of residence)

-Change from-

Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Data are by place of work and cover full- and part-time employees who worked or received pay for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. The data exclude the self-employed, volunteers, unpaid family workers, and domestics.

-Change from-

July 2009

A couple months ago, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released new data for 2007 county per capita personal income – that is, income from all sources divided by population. Today’s economic conditions may have changed substantially from 2007’s, but each year’s per capita personal income estimates are usually worth a few words on these pages. Graph 1 displays the latest numbers, with Grant County’s per-person income of $30,231 ranking 18th out of Oregon’s 36 counties and Malheur County’s $21,733 ranking 36th.

This region’s standing among other Oregon counties hasn’t changed dramatically over the past few years, even though per capita personal income in Eastern Oregon sometimes sways conspicuously from one year to the next. Often, those local income shifts occur because of fluctuations in farm income. For example, BEA estimated that Union County’s farm income moved from a net loss of about $1 million in 2006 to a net gain of more than $13 million in 2007.

Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rates

May 2009 Baker County 10.6% seasonally adjusted 12.6% Grant County 14.3% seasonally adjusted 14.1% Harney County 17.3% seasonally adjusted 19.3% Malheur County 11.3% seasonally adjusted 11.1% Union County 12.3% seasonally adjusted 13.7% Wallowa County 13.6% seasonally adjusted 13.9% Oregon 12.1% seasonally adjusted 12.4% United States 9.1% seasonally adjusted 9.4%

Population – July 1, 2008 Baker County 16,455 Grant County 7,530 Harney County 7,705 Malheur County 31,675 Union County 25,360 Wallowa County 7,115 Oregon 3,791,075

Average Pay Per Job – 2008 Baker County $28,340 Grant County $29,548 Harney County $29,461 Malheur County $28,500 Union County $30,446 Wallowa County $26,704 Oregon $40,486 United States not yet available

Per Capita Personal Income2007

$25,754

$30,231$28,238

$21,733

$28,833 $29,537

$35,143$38,615

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

BakerCounty

GrantCounty

HarneyCounty

MalheurCounty

UnionCounty

WallowaCounty

Oregon UnitedStates

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Graph 1

2 Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis Eastern Oregon Labor Trends • July 2009

NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT SITUATION – MAY 2009 The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000, seasonally adjusted, to 14.5 million in May, and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percentage points. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000, seasonally adjusted, in May to 132.2 million. The decline was about half of the average monthly job loss for the prior six months (-643,000). Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.0 million. In May, job losses continued to be widespread across major industry sectors. Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while the rate of decline moderated in several industries, including construction, professional and business services, and retail trade. OREGON EMPLOYMENT SITUATION – MAY 2009 Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent in May compared with 11.8 percent (as revised) in April. The 12.4 percent reading was the highest on record since the current series began in 1976, topping the previous high mark of 12.1 percent set in November 1982. While the May unemployment rate is at a historically high level, the increase in Oregon’s unemployment rate has moderated over the last two months. Between March and May, the rate rose from 11.9 percent to 12.4 percent. This is an increase of 0.5 percentage point over a two-month period. This moderation in the rise of the unemployment rate followed a trend of very rapid monthly increases between October 2008 (when the rate was 7.2 percent) and March 2009. During this five-month period, the rate rose by an average of nearly a full percentage point per month. In May, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined by 100 jobs, following a drop of 8,100 (as revised) in April. The May employment figures were by far the smallest job loss of any month over the past 10 months. In May, most of the major industries followed their normal seasonal patterns. This was in contrast with the prior eight months, when many industries cut employment sharply below normal seasonal expectations.

Eastern Oregon Labor Trends is published by the Workforce and Economic Research Division of the Oregon Employment Department. Eastern Oregon Labor Trends also can be found on the Publications page at www.QualityInfo.org. Material contained in this publication is in the public domain and may be reproduced without permission. Please credit Eastern Oregon Labor Trends, Oregon Employment Department.

Laurie Warner, Director Graham Slater, Administrator for Workforce and Economic Research Jason Yohannan, Regional Economist Annette Shelton-Tiderman, Workforce Analyst La Grande (541) 963-7111, ext. 226 Debbie Gargalis, Field Office Manager Baker City (541) 523-6331 Enterprise (541) 426-4972 La Grande (541) 963-7111 Nancy Alvarado, Field Office Manager Burns (541) 573-5251 Canyon City (541) 575-0744 Ontario (541) 889-5394

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 3 Eastern Oregon Labor Trends • July 2009

BAKER COUNTY

Baker County had an estimated May 2009 jobless rate of 10.6 percent, down moderately from April’s revised 11.6 percent. May’s labor force estimates show 6,793 employed and 806 unemployed local residents. It’s not uncommon for Baker County to record one or more months of double-digit unemployment rates every winter. But it is unusual for such double-digit jobless rates to linger into May. Yet that’s where we find ourselves this year. The last time Baker County’s May unemployment rate was at or above 10 percent was 23 years ago, when the May 1986 figure was 13.7 percent. That year, Baker County’s jobless rate never dipped below 9.5 percent in any month. Total nonfarm payroll employment advanced over the month for the second consecutive time in May – but by less than the typical amount for the second consecutive time. Baker County’s retail trade businesses added 10 jobs in the expansion year of 2007 and defied state and national trends by adding another 10 jobs in the recession year of 2008. It’s a different story this year. Retail trade’s over-the-year employment trends have been negative since the beginning of 2009, and those negative trends only broadened in the most recent two or three monthly reports.

May Apr. May Apr. May 2009 2009 2008 2009 2008

Labor Force Status (Household Data)Civilian labor force 7,599 7,611 7,392 -12 207 Unemployed 806 880 389 -74 417 Unemployment rate 10.6 11.6 5.3 -1.0 5.3 Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) 12.6 11.6 6.3 1.0 6.3 Employed 6,793 6,731 7,003 62 -210

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Data)Total nonfarm payroll employment 5,380 5,300 5,560 80 -180 Total private 4,040 3,990 4,210 50 -170 Mining and logging 30 20 20 10 10 Construction 240 240 280 0 -40 Manufacturing 580 570 620 10 -40 Trade, transportation, and utilities 1,010 980 1,040 30 -30 Wholesale trade 90 80 90 10 0 Retail trade 670 660 710 10 -40 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 250 240 240 10 10 Information 90 80 90 10 0 Financial activities 230 230 230 0 0 Professional and business services 280 290 300 -10 -20 Educational and health services 750 760 740 -10 10 Leisure and hospitality 580 570 620 10 -40 Other services 250 250 270 0 -20 Government 1,340 1,310 1,350 30 -10 Federal government 250 230 240 20 10 State government 280 280 290 0 -10 Local government 810 800 820 10 -10Labor-management disputes 0 0 0 0 0

The most recent month is preliminary; the prior month is revised.

BAKER COUNTY CURRENT LABOR FORCE AND INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

Change From

Labor Force Status: Civilian labor force includes employed and unemployed individuals 16 years and older by place of residence. Employed includes nonfarm payroll employment, self-employed, unpaid family workers, domestics, agriculture, and labor disputants. Unemployment rate is calculated by dividing unemployed by civilian labor force. Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Baker County Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentLatest 25 Months

M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M

May 2007 - May 2009

GRANT COUNTY Grant County had an estimated May 2009 jobless rate of 14.3 percent, down moderately from April’s revised 15.7 percent. May’s labor force estimates show 2,967 employed and 495 unemployed local residents. Grant County’s May 2009 unemployment rate of 14.3 percent was 2.4 percentage points higher than the May 2008 rate. While that trend was disappointing, it also was the smallest over-the-year increase recorded for May in any of Oregon’s 36 counties. Not only that, Grant County was the only Oregon county with fewer regular unemployment insurance payments in May 2009 than in May 2008. As used here, “regular” unemployment excludes extensions or other special programs. Similarly, Grant County’s total nonfarm payroll employment estimate for May 2009 (2,350) shows an estimated 80-job increase over the May 2008 level (2,270). The vast majority of Oregon’s other counties recorded over-the-year job losses in May 2009. So does this mean the recession’s grip on Grant County’s labor market is finally loosening? Probably not. The key reason Grant County’s over-the-year job market comparisons look less awful than the rest of the state’s in this one monthly report has only a little to do with May 2009’s conditions and much more to do with how weak the numbers already were here in May 2008.

Labor Force Status (Household Data)Civilian labor force 3,462 3,452 3,296 10 166 Unemployed 495 541 392 -46 103 Unemployment rate 14.3 15.7 11.9 -1.4 2.4 Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) 14.1 13.4 11.7 0.7 2.4 Employed 2,967 2,911 2,904 56 63

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Data)Total nonfarm payroll employment 2,350 2,300 2,270 50 80 Total private 1,290 1,280 1,220 10 70 Mining and logging 20 10 10 10 10 Construction 130 120 120 10 10 Manufacturing 140 150 100 -10 40 Trade, transportation, and utilities 350 350 360 0 -10 Wholesale trade 40 40 40 0 0 Retail trade 260 260 270 0 -10 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 50 50 50 0 0 Information 40 40 40 0 0 Financial activities 110 110 110 0 0 Professional and business services 90 90 100 0 -10 Educational and health services 170 170 140 0 30 Leisure and hospitality 180 170 180 10 0 Other services 60 70 60 -10 0 Government 1,060 1,020 1,050 40 10 Federal government 250 230 240 20 10 State government 130 130 130 0 0 Local government 680 660 680 20 0Labor-management disputes 0 0 0 0 0

GRANT COUNTY CURRENT LABOR FORCE AND INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

Change From

Grant County Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentLatest 25 Months

May 2007 - May 2009

HARNEY COUNTY Harney County had an estimated May 2009 jobless rate of 17.3 percent, down moderately from April’s revised 18.5 percent. May’s labor force estimates show 2,854 employed and 596 unemployed local residents. Once again, Harney County had Oregon’s second-highest unemployment rate. Crook County topped the list one more time with a May 2009 unemployment rate of 18.4 percent. Similarly, Harney County’s 9.8-percentage-point increase in its unemployment rate from one year earlier was the second-worst numerical rise among Oregon’s 36 counties. Crook County’s May 2009 jobless rate was 10.3 percentage points above its May 2008 figure. Industry employment changes from April to May were mild, at least according to the preliminary statistics in the accompanying table. Federal employment counts moved the most, going up by 20 workers for the month. In the private sector, two industries – mining, logging, and construction and leisure and hospitality – chipped in with net gains of 10 new workers apiece. Each of Harney County’s other broad nonfarm industries showed no employment change.

Labor Force Status (Household Data)Civilian labor force 3,450 3,477 3,284 -27 166 Unemployed 596 644 246 -48 350 Unemployment rate 17.3 18.5 7.5 -1.2 9.8 Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) 19.3 17.6 8.3 1.7 11.0 Employed 2,854 2,833 3,038 21 -184

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Data)Total nonfarm payroll employment 2,280 2,240 2,460 40 -180 Total private 1,130 1,110 1,320 20 -190 Mining, logging, and construction 90 80 90 10 0 Manufacturing 10 10 140 0 -130 Trade, transportation, and utilities 380 380 400 0 -20 Wholesale trade 30 30 50 0 -20 Retail trade 300 300 300 0 0 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 50 50 50 0 0 Information 20 20 30 0 -10 Financial activities 80 80 80 0 0 Professional and business services 80 80 80 0 0 Educational and health services 160 160 180 0 -20 Leisure and hospitality 250 240 260 10 -10 Other services 60 60 60 0 0 Government 1,150 1,130 1,140 20 10 Federal government 260 240 240 20 20 State government 150 150 140 0 10 Local government 740 740 760 0 -20Labor-management disputes 0 0 0 0 0

HARNEY COUNTY CURRENT LABOR FORCE AND INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

Change From

Harney County Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentLatest 25 Months

May 2007 - May 2009

MALHEUR COUNTY Malheur County had an estimated May 2009 jobless rate of 11.3 percent, down moderately from April’s revised 13.7 percent. May’s labor force estimates show 11,717 employed and 1,487 unemployed local residents. As expected, some of the temporary layoffs that caused Malheur County’s unemployment rate to spike upward in April had passed by the time May’s statistics were compiled. As a result of that, plus some hiring by the county’s agricultural producers, Malheur County’s latest monthly unemployment rate (11.3%) was its lowest of the year to date. But that’s not saying much. Malheur County’s unemployment rate has been above 11 percent every month of 2009 so far. By contrast, the local jobless rate never even cracked 10 percent in any month of 2006, 2007, or 2008. Additional seasonal layoffs pushed Malheur County’s wholesale trade industry employment down another 100, to an estimated 470 workers in May. Hopefully, this industry’s job count will stabilize at or near that level until the next seasonal upswing begins in August or September. In 2008, wholesale trade’s lowest monthly employment level was 480 in July. In 2006 and 2007, it was 460, also in July. The numbers typically rise above 800 or 900 workers by early fall, following the onion harvest.

Labor Force Status (Household Data)Civilian labor force 13,204 13,553 12,748 -349 456 Unemployed 1,487 1,855 867 -368 620 Unemployment rate 11.3 13.7 6.8 -2.4 4.5 Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) 11.1 12.8 6.7 -1.7 4.4 Employed 11,717 11,698 11,881 19 -164

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Data)Total nonfarm payroll employment 11,840 11,850 11,950 -10 -110 Total private 8,090 8,140 8,280 -50 -190 Mining, logging, and construction 320 320 340 0 -20 Manufacturing 1,010 1,010 1,040 0 -30 Trade, transportation, and utilities 2,830 2,890 2,940 -60 -110 Wholesale trade 470 570 540 -100 -70 Retail trade 2,000 1,970 2,030 30 -30 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 360 350 370 10 -10 Information 110 110 110 0 0 Financial activities 380 380 420 0 -40 Professional and business services 420 420 440 0 -20 Educational and health services 1,550 1,570 1,510 -20 40 Leisure and hospitality 1,170 1,140 1,170 30 0 Other services 300 300 310 0 -10 Government 3,750 3,710 3,670 40 80 Federal government 250 230 250 20 0 State government 1,270 1,270 1,260 0 10 Local government 2,230 2,210 2,160 20 70Labor-management disputes 0 0 0 0 0

MALHEUR COUNTY CURRENT LABOR FORCE AND INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

Change From

Malheur County Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentLatest 25 Months

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

May 2007 - May 2009

UNION COUNTY Union County had an estimated May 2009 jobless rate of 12.3 percent, down slightly from April’s revised 12.8 percent. May’s labor force estimates show 11,067 employed and 1,548 unemployed local residents. Union County’s unemployment rate subsided for the fourth consecutive month in May. Nonetheless, the local unemployment rate was more than six full percentage points higher than 2008’s level in each of the first five months of this year. Manufacturing employment sank again in May, falling to an estimated 970. That was the fewest number of factory workers measured in Union County since the restructured industry classification scheme went into effect in 2001. On the plus side, Union County’s educational and health services sector added workers for the fourth consecutive month. Its preliminary estimate of 1,480 employees in May 2009 was another record high. The industry title “educational and health services” may lead one to picture school district employees – but don’t. Public school staffs are counted in the local government category, where employment has trended downward for years. Only private-sector educational entities are included in “educational and health services.” As of 2008, Union County had eight private employers classified as educational service providers, and they occupied about 30 people. So the vast majority of Union County’s 1,400+ “educational and health services” workers are providing health and social services, not educational services.

Labor Force Status (Household Data)Civilian labor force 12,615 12,739 12,348 -124 267 Unemployed 1,548 1,635 759 -87 789 Unemployment rate 12.3 12.8 6.1 -0.5 6.2 Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) 13.7 12.7 6.8 1.0 6.9 Employed 11,067 11,104 11,589 -37 -522

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Data)Total nonfarm payroll employment 10,010 10,000 10,520 10 -510 Total private 7,330 7,370 7,810 -40 -480 Mining and logging 60 50 90 10 -30 Construction 560 540 580 20 -20 Manufacturing 970 1,010 1,430 -40 -460 Trade, transportation, and utilities 2,100 2,080 2,180 20 -80 Wholesale trade 240 240 260 0 -20 Retail trade 1,450 1,440 1,470 10 -20 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 410 400 450 10 -40 Information 140 140 140 0 0 Financial activities 390 390 400 0 -10 Professional and business services 450 450 450 0 0 Educational and health services 1,480 1,460 1,360 20 120 Leisure and hospitality 900 970 900 -70 0 Other services 280 280 280 0 0 Government 2,680 2,630 2,710 50 -30 Federal government 250 230 230 20 20 State government 1,230 1,220 1,240 10 -10 Local government 1,200 1,180 1,240 20 -40Labor-management disputes 0 0 0 0 0

UNION COUNTY CURRENT LABOR FORCE AND INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

Change From

Union County Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentLatest 25 Months

10,000

10,500

11,000

May 2007 - May 2009

WALLOWA COUNTY Wallowa County had an estimated May 2009 jobless rate of 13.6 percent, down moderately from April’s revised 15.0 percent. May’s labor force estimates show 3,214 employed and 506 unemployed local residents. Despite the moderate improvement from April to May, Wallowa County’s unemployment rate remained stubbornly high. Based on historical patterns, the county’s jobless rate usually transitions from an above-average percentage in April to an average or below-average percentage in May. Nothing about 13.6 percent says “below average.” More than 500 Wallowa County residents who sought work were unsuccessful in each of the first five months of 2009, including the 506 estimated for May. That extent of lingering unemployment happened only twice before, once in 1983 and again in 1984. Still, May did bring more opportunities than were present in April. Wallowa County’s leisure and hospitality industry added an estimated 40 workers over the month, and various government agencies combined to bring an additional 30 workers on to their payrolls. All told, nonfarm employment rose to a preliminary level of 2,370 in May, which was 3 percent more than in April but 6 percent less than in May 2008.

Labor Force Status (Household Data)Civilian labor force 3,720 3,700 3,637 20 83 Unemployed 506 556 251 -50 255 Unemployment rate 13.6 15.0 6.9 -1.4 6.7 Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) 13.9 12.1 7.0 1.8 6.9 Employed 3,214 3,144 3,386 70 -172

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Establishment Data)Total nonfarm payroll employment 2,370 2,290 2,510 80 -140 Total private 1,590 1,540 1,730 50 -140 Mining and logging 30 30 30 0 0 Construction 180 170 210 10 -30 Manufacturing 120 120 150 0 -30 Trade, transportation, and utilities 410 400 490 10 -80 Wholesale and retail trade 330 320 400 10 -70 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 80 80 90 0 -10 Information 20 30 30 -10 -10 Financial activities 170 170 140 0 30 Professional and business services 110 110 120 0 -10 Educational and health services 210 210 200 0 10 Leisure and hospitality 260 220 280 40 -20 Other services 80 80 80 0 0 Government 780 750 780 30 0 Federal government 110 100 110 10 0 State government 120 120 130 0 -10 Local government 550 530 540 20 10Labor-management disputes 0 0 0 0 0

WALLOWA COUNTY CURRENT LABOR FORCE AND INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

Change From

Wallowa County Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentLatest 25 Months

May 2007 - May 2009

MORE BITS AND PIECES FROM THE 2007 CENSUS OF AGRICULTURE Tabulations from the 2007 Census of Agriculture, issued earlier this year, cover a wide range of topics. Data for Oregon and its counties fill several hundred pages. We previously reviewed what those numbers had to say about Eastern Oregon’s average farm size, revenues, profitability, and farm operators’ primary occupations. Because there’s so much more to dissect from this resource, we’ll devote more space here to further explore one of this region’s most important industries. Calling It a Farm Is Only the Beginning Plenty of farms raise multiple commodities, but the Census of Agriculture assigned each operation a single industry code for classification purposes. Based on that system, Eastern Oregon’s 4,265 farms were sorted into one of 14 more-detailed categories. Table 1 offers a top-five ranking, by county, of the number of farms by detailed type. Not surprisingly, beef cattle ranching topped the list in all six local counties. A cattle ranch was the most common type of farm on a statewide basis, too.

Eastern Oregon’s Farms Generally Are Family Farms The 2007 Census of Agriculture counted more corporate farms in Oregon and in all six counties of Eastern Oregon than did the 2002 Census of Agriculture. But, as of 2007, an overwhelming majority of Eastern Oregon’s farms were still small family farms (Graph 1). The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) defines a “small” family farm as one with sales of less than $250,000. “Large” family farms sell between $250,000 and $499,999 in agricultural goods. Sales at “very large” family farms add up to at least $500,000.

Table 1

Baker County Grant County Harney County Malheur County Union County Wallowa CountyBeef cattle ranching Beef cattle ranching Beef cattle ranching Beef cattle ranching Beef cattle ranching Beef cattle ranchingOther crop farming* Other animal production** Other crop farming* Other crop farming* Other crop farming* Other crop farming*Other animal production** Other crop farming* Other animal production** Other animal production** Other animal production** Other animal production**Sheep and goat farming Sheep and goat farming Sheep and goat farming Oilseed and grain farming Oilseed and grain farming Sheep and goat farmingCattle feedlots Cattle feedlots (tie) Cattle feedlots Vegetable/melon farming Sheep and goat farming Cattle feedlots

Hog and pig farming (tie)

Source: 2007 Census of Agriculture

TOP FIVE FARM TYPES BY DETAILED INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION, 2007

* "Other" crop farming means something other than oilseeds and grains, vegetables and melons, fruits and tree nuts, or greenhouse-nursery-floriculture production.** "Other" animal production means something other than beef cattle, feedlots, dairy, hogs and pigs, poultry and eggs, or sheep and goats.

Eastern Oregon Farms by Organization and Scale2007

Small family farms86.9%

Large family farms4.4%

Very large family farms3.9%

Nonfamily farms4.9%

Source: 2007 Census of Agriculture Graph 1

According to ERS, nonfamily farms are farms organized as nonfamily corporations, as well as farms operated by hired managers. The Census of Agriculture further divides small family farms into five subcategories. These include limited-resource farms, retirement farms, residential/lifestyle farms, farming occupation-lower sales, and farming occupation-higher sales. In Eastern Oregon, a plurality of small family farms fell into the residential/lifestyle group in 2007, meaning that the principal operator reported his or her primary occupation as something other than farming. This was also the case in most of Oregon’s other counties, though four counties (Clatsop, Curry, Jefferson, and Wheeler) reported more retirement farms than residential/lifestyle farms. Corresponding pie charts for Oregon and the United States wouldn’t look too much different than Eastern Oregon’s. Eastern Oregon had a slightly smaller share of small family farms than the rest of the state and the rest of the country and a slightly greater share of large family farms. Eastern Oregon Livestock: More Hoof, Less Beak According to the 2007 Census of Agriculture, Oregon’s most common farm critter was broilers and other meat-type chickens. We had more than 4 million of them as of December 31, 2007. But the poultry segment of Oregon’s agriculture industry is concentrated in Western Oregon; Eastern Oregon is cow country. Cattle and calves topped the livestock inventory in this region (Table 2), whereas broilers didn’t even crack the top five in any local county, though other miscellaneous poultry items, including pheasants and quail, made an appearance.

A couple of the local livestock counts were statewide leaders. Malheur County’s 213,325 cattle and calves outnumbered those in any other Oregon county and ranked 35th nationally. Wallowa County’s bison herd – the exact inventory number couldn’t be disclosed – also ranked first in the state. One More Chart Topper Finally, here’s another powerful ranking: Malheur County devoted 13,492 acres to production of dry onions in 2007. (“Dry” means they’re not green onions.) That was more acreage for this crop than in any other county of the United States. Malheur County’s dry onion acreage ranked first among the nation’s 3,000+ counties back in the 2002 Census of Agriculture, too. Those pungent little bulbs – actually, some Malheur County onions are anything but little – definitely play a substantial role in the local economy.

Table 2

Baker County Grant County Harney County Malheur County Union County Wallowa CountyCattle and calves Cattle and calves Cattle and calves Cattle and calves Cattle and calves Cattle and calvesSheep and lambs Pheasants Sheep and lambs Pheasants Horses and ponies Horses and poniesHorses and ponies Quail Horses and ponies Sheep and lambs Layers Sheep and lambsLayers Horses and ponies Layers Horses and ponies Hogs and pigs LayersColonies of bees Sheep and lambs Goats Colonies of bees* Sheep and lambs Bison

Source: 2007 Census of Agriculture

TOP FIVE ANIMALS IN EASTERN OREGON'S LIVESTOCK INVENTORY AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2007

* Bee colonies ranked in Malheur County's top five, but not necessarily in fifth place. The exact rank cannot be disclosed.

July 2009

Latest Local Area Employment Data Lane County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 14.2 percent in May from a revised 13.4 percent in April. The rate this May is up 8.4 percentage points from the 5.8 percent recorded in May 2008. May’s unadjusted rate (12.9%) is the highest May rate since the Employment Department began reporting the local rate in 1958. The number of unemployed increased by 157 from April, and was 14,691 higher than in May 2008. Nonfarm Payroll Employment In May, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 700 when an increase of 600 was expected on a seasonal basis. Total nonfarm employment is down by 8,000 from May of last year for an annualized loss of 5.1 percent. In manufacturing, both durable and nondurable goods manufacturing held steady.

Seasonally Lane Raw Adjusted April 2009 12.8% 13.4% May 2009 12.9% 14.2% Oregon April 2009 11.9% 11.8% May 2009 12.1% 12.4% United States April 2009 8.6% 8.9% May 2009 9.1% 9.4%

Nonfarm Payroll Employment May 2009

Lane Total 148,800 Wood Prod. Mfg. 3,600 Other Mfg. 10,100 Construction 6,400 Trade 24,800 Information 3,700 Financial Activities 7,900 Services 56,600 Government 31,700 Consumer Price Index (CPI)

1982-1984 = 100 All Urban Consumers

United States May 2009 213.856 Year change -1.3%

Portland-Salem MSA July – Dec. 2008 216.159 Year Change +2.7% Jan. – June 2009 available 8/14/09

Oregon Lane County

2 Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis Lane County Trends • July 2009

In the private nonmanufacturing sectors in May there were seasonal gains in construction (+200) and leisure and hospitality (+200). Elsewhere, there were gains in retail trade (+100) and other services (+100). There was a loss in professional and business services (-100). Government added 200 in May from gains of 100 each in local education and other local government. Around the County Mohawk Metal, a Eugene metal fabrication shop, has added seven workers since December and plans to add seven more to its new installation department in the coming months. -Register-Guard (Eugene, OR) 06/04/09 The Register-Guard newspaper in Eugene laid off 21 people. -Register-Guard (Eugene, OR) 06/09/09 About 100 employees are now working at the Monaco RV manufacturing plant in Coburg. It was bought out of bankruptcy by Navistar International Corp. -Register-Guard (Eugene, OR) 06/11/09 Napoli Restaurant in Eugene closed. -Register-Guard (Eugene, OR) 06/11/09 LetterHead Fine Paper & Gifts in Eugene will close in July. -Register-Guard (Eugene, OR) 06/13/09 A three-story, 34,000-square-foot medical office building has opened in Eugene. It is home to Pacific Women’s Center, Vendetti Dentistry, Jewell Plastic Surgery, and Clinical Trials of America. -Register-Guard (Eugene, OR) 07/01/09

(10,000)

(8,000)

(6,000)

(4,000)

(2,000)

Lane County: Employment Change from Previous YearMay 2004 to May 2009

Lane County Labor Trends is published by the Workforce and Economic Research Division of the Oregon Employment Department. Lane County Labor Trends also can be found on the Publications page at www.QualityInfo.org. Material contained in this publication is in the public domain and may be reproduced without permission. Please credit Lane County Labor Trends, Oregon Employment Department.

Laurie Warner, Director Graham Slater, Administrator for Workforce and Economic Research Brian Rooney, Regional Economist Mike Meyers, Workforce Analyst (541) 686-7670 Jim Pfarrer, Field Office Manager Eugene (541) 686-7601 Florence (541) 997-1913 Springfield (541) 726-3525

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 3 Lane County Trends • July 2009

Oregon Employment Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent in May compared with 11.8 percent (as revised) in April. The 12.4 percent reading was the highest on record since the current series began in 1976, topping the previous high mark of 12.1 percent set in November 1982. In May, 240,615 Oregonians were unemployed. In May 2008, 103,441 Oregonians were unemployed. While the May unemployment rate is at a historically high level, the increase in Oregon’s unemployment rate has moderated over the last two months. Between March and May, the rate rose from 11.9 percent to 12.4 percent. This is an increase of 0.5 percentage point over a two-month period. This moderation in the rise of the unemployment rate followed a trend of very rapid monthly increases between October 2008 (when the rate was 7.2%) and March 2009. During this five-month period, the rate rose by an average of nearly a full percentage point per month. In May, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined by 100 jobs, following a drop of 8,100 (as revised) in April. The May employment figures were by far the smallest job loss of any month over the past 10 months. In May, most of the major industries followed their normal seasonal patterns. This was in contrast with the prior eight months, when many industries cut employment sharply below normal seasonal expectations. In May, all of the major industries except two saw their employment change by within 600 jobs of their normal seasonal movement. Manufacturing was one exception, where employment continued to fall below normal seasonal patterns. It cut 1,300 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. Leisure and hospitality was the other exception, as it grew by 1,600 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. National Employment The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percentage points. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000 in May to 132.2 million. The decline was about half of the average monthly job loss for the prior six months (-643,000). Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.0 million. In May, job losses continued

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates, 1998 to Present

Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

U.S. Oregon

4 Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis Lane County Trends • July 2009

to be widespread across major industry sectors. Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while the rate of decline moderated in several industries, including construction, professional and business services, and retail trade. Manufacturing employment fell by 156,000 in May. Job losses occurred in most component industries. Three durable goods industries – motor vehicles and parts (-30,000), machinery (-26,000), and fabricated metal products (-19,000) – accounted for about half of the overall decline in factory employment. Since its most recent peak in February 2000, employment in motor vehicles and parts has fallen by about 50 percent. Mining shed 11,000 jobs in May, about the same number as in April. Employment in construction decreased by 59,000 in May compared with an average monthly job loss of 117,000 for the previous six months. In May, employment fell in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-30,000) and in residential construction of buildings (-11,000). Job losses in professional and business services moderated in May, with the industry shedding 51,000 jobs. This compares with an average loss of 136,000 jobs per month in the prior six months. The temporary help services industry, which had been dropping an average of 73,000 jobs per month over this period, saw little employment change in May (-7,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality was flat over the month. The industry had lost an average of 39,000 jobs per month during the prior six months. Retail trade employment was down 18,000 in May; job cutbacks in retail trade have moderated markedly in the past two months. Employment in wholesale trade fell by 22,000 over the month, with over half of the decrease (-14,000) among durable goods wholesalers. Financial activities employment continued to decrease in May (-30,000). Securities lost 10,000 jobs and real estate lost 9,000. Employment in credit intermediation continued to trend down, although the May job loss was well below the average job loss for the prior six months. Employment in information decreased by 24,000 in May. Health care employment increased by 24,000 in May, about in line with its average monthly job growth so far in 2009. Employment in government changed little in May. The change in total nonfarm employment for March was revised from -699,000 to -652,000, and the change for April was revised from -539,000 to -504,000.

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 5 Lane County Trends • July 2009

(by place of residence)

-Change from-May Apr. May Apr. May

2009 2009 2008 2009 2008

Civilian Labor Force 188,734 189,322 183,131 -588 5,603 Unemployment 24,372 24,215 9,681 157 14,691 Unemployment rate 12.9% 12.8% 5.3% 0.1 7.6 Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 14.2% 13.4% 5.8% 0.9 8.4 Total Employment 164,362 165,107 173,450 -745 -9,088

EUGENE MSA (Lane County) NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT(by place of work)

-Change from-May Apr. May Apr. May

Employment in thousands 2009 2009 2008 2009 2008

TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT 148,800 148,100 156,800 700 -8,000

TOTAL PRIVATE 117,100 116,600 125,000 500 -7,900 Mining and Logging 900 900 900 0 0 Construction 6,400 6,200 7,300 200 -900 Manufacturing 13,700 13,700 18,400 0 -4,700 Durable Goods 9,800 9,800 14,400 0 -4,600 Wood Product Manufacturing 3,600 3,600 4,200 0 -600 Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 1,100 1,100 3,200 0 -2,100 Nondurable goods 3,900 3,900 4,000 0 -100 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 27,900 27,800 28,800 100 -900 Wholesale trade 6,100 6,100 6,200 0 -100 Retail trade 18,700 18,600 19,400 100 -700 General Merchandise and Clothing Stores 4,900 4,900 5,100 0 -200 Food and Beverage Stores 3,900 3,900 4,000 0 -100 Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 3,100 3,100 3,200 0 -100 Information 3,700 3,700 3,900 0 -200 Financial Activities 7,900 7,900 8,100 0 -200 Professional and Business Services 14,600 14,700 15,800 -100 -1,200 Administrative and Support Services 6,900 6,900 7,800 0 -900 Educational and Health Services 22,100 22,100 21,300 0 800 Health Care 17,300 17,300 16,700 0 600 Leisure and Hospitality 14,700 14,500 15,200 200 -500 Accommodation and Food Services 12,400 12,200 13,000 200 -600 Food Services and Drinking Places 11,100 10,900 11,500 200 -400 Other Services 5,200 5,100 5,300 100 -100 Government 31,700 31,500 31,800 200 -100 Federal Government 1,900 1,900 1,700 0 200 State Government 12,700 12,700 12,700 0 0 State Education 9,600 9,600 9,800 0 -200 Local Government 17,100 16,900 17,400 200 -300 Local Education 9,700 9,600 9,900 100 -200

EUGENE MSA (Lane County) LABOR FORCE SUMMARY*

July 2009 Local Trends Gilliam County: Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data) Employment in Gilliam County rose by 25 in May to total 840 jobs. Gilliam County’s job gain fell 15 short of seasonal expectations, which called for a gain of 40. Over the 2001 to 2008 period, Gilliam County gained an average of about 20 jobs in May; it added 30 jobs last year. Private industry rose by 10 jobs to total 595 while government climbed by 15 to total 245. Over the year, government cut its payrolls by 15 while private industry finished 75 jobs in the hole (-11.2%). Unemployment (Household Survey Data) Gilliam County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose a scant 0.1 percentage point in May to 9.3 percent. Its raw (unadjusted) unemployment rate fell 0.7 percentage point to 8.2 percent. Over the year, total employment fell by 93 jobs while total unemployment climbed by 56. Hood River County: Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data) Employment in Hood River County fell by 260 jobs in May to 9,670. Over the year employment fell by 490 jobs, a loss of 4.8 percent. Taking seasonal factors into account, the county was expected to lose 100 jobs in May – leaving a seasonally adjusted loss of 160. On average, Hood River County cuts about 80 jobs in May (2001-2008); last year it cut 130. Private industry cut its payrolls by 260 jobs in May, to total 8,220 while government held steady at 1,450. Over the year, private industry fell by 470 (-5.4%), and government dropped by 20 jobs.

INDICATORS

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE MAY 2009 APR Gilliam 8.2 8.9 Hood River 10.8 9.6 Sherman 8.9 10.3 Wasco 10.3 9.6 Wheeler 10.5 11.2 Oregon Raw 12.1 11.9 U.S. Raw 9.1 8.6

Seasonally Adjusted Data MAY 2009 APR Gilliam 9.3 9.2 Hood River 10.2 10.0 Sherman 9.8 10.9 Wasco 11.3 10.3 Wheeler 10.3 8.9 Oregon SA 12.4 11.8 U.S. SA 9.4 8.9 TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLL

EMPLOYMENT MAY 2009 CHANGE FROM PRELIMINARY APR Gilliam 840 25 Hood River 9,670 (260) Sherman 755 10 Wasco 9,460 40 Wheeler 300 20

Seasonally Adjusted Data MAY 2009 CHANGE FROM PRELIMINARY APR Gilliam 820 (10) Hood River 10,000 (100) Sherman 740 0 Wasco 9,440 10 Wheeler 290 0

2 Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis Mid-Columbia Trends • July 2009

Arts, entertainment, and recreation shed its remaining seasonal jobs in May, falling 390 jobs to total 210. Compared with last year, arts, entertainment, and recreation ended its season 60 jobs in the minus column. Accommodation also cut jobs in May, falling by 20 to total 270 – while its over-the-year loss grew to 110 jobs. Food services and drinking places led the private sector in May with a gain of 60 jobs. Retail trade (+40), wholesale trade (+20), mining, logging, and construction (+10), manufacturing (+10), and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+10) also gained jobs. Government was unchanged in May with 1,450 jobs. Since last May, state government employment fell by 10 and other local government dropped by 10. Unemployment (Household Survey Data) Hood River County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage point in May to 10.2 percent. Its raw – unadjusted – unemployment rate rose 1.2 percentage points to 10.8 percent. Unemployment climbed by 105 in May to total 1,351 – compared with May 2008, the number of unemployed rose by 728. Sherman County: Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data) Employment in Sherman County rose by 10 in May to 755 jobs. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Sherman County was expected to gain 20 jobs in May, leaving it 10 shy of expectations. Over the 2001 to 2008 period, Sherman County gained an average of 15 jobs in May. Private industry claimed all of the county’s growth in May, climbing to 460. Over the year, private industry gained 25 jobs while losses in federal government and local government left the public sector 15 in the hole.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) All Items, 1982-84=100

Urban Consumers

Portland-Salem, OR-WA Jul. – Dec. 2008 216.159 Yearly Change +2.7% Annual Average 2008 215.389 Yearly Change +3.3%

United States MAY 2009 213.856 Yearly Change -1.3% Annual Average 2008 215.303 Yearly Change +3.8% Next release: 07/15/09 http://www.bls.gov/cpi

Mid-Columbia Labor Trends is published by the Workforce and Economic Research Division of the Oregon Employment Department. Mid-Columbia Labor Trends can also be found on the Publications page at www.QualityInfo.org. Material contained in this publication is in the public domain and may be reproduced without permission. Please credit Mid-Columbia Labor Trends, Oregon Employment Department. The Oregon Employment Department is an equal opportunity employer. Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities.

Laurie Warner, Director Graham Slater, Administrator for Workforce and Economic Research Dallas Fridley, Regional Economist Hood River (541) 386-6065 Tony Wendel, Workforce Analyst Hermiston (541) 564-5685 Ron Freeman, Field Office Manager The Dalles (541) 296-5435

Please direct address changes to: Oregon Employment Department Workforce and Economic Research 875 Union St NE Salem OR 97311 Phone (503) 947-1204 TDD (503) 947-1391 e-mail lmipubs.emp@state.or.us

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 3 Mid-Columbia Trends • July 2009

Unemployment (Household Survey Data) Sherman County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell by 1.1 percentage points in May to 9.8 percent. Its raw – unadjusted – unemployment rate fell by 1.4 percentage points to 8.9 percent. Unemployment in Sherman County fell by 15 in May – but over the year, it rose by 42 to total 89. Wasco County: Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data) Wasco County gained 40 jobs in May and its nonfarm total rose to 9,460. Over the year Wasco County lost 350 jobs (-3.6%). Job gains in May fell 130 short of seasonal expectations, which called for an increase of 170. Seasonal expectations aside, on average (2001-2008) Wasco County gained around 130 jobs in May. Private industry evened out in May despite a loss of 120 jobs in manufacturing and 10 in professional and business services. Leisure and hospitality helped to balance the difference, gaining 100 jobs. Other industries in the plus column included mining and logging (+10), construction (+10), and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+10). Private-industry losses over the year totaled 410 in May, with a drop of 200 in manufacturing causing most of the pain. Retail trade cooled considerably over the past year, dropping 100 jobs to total 1,520. A loss of 80 in construction and a drop of 40 in financial activities didn’t help. Job gains since last May were limited to professional and business services (+10) and leisure and hospitality (+10). Government added jobs in every ownership except federal, which cut 10 jobs. Local education was on top with a gain of 20, followed by gains of 10 jobs each in state, Indian tribal, and other local. Over the year, other local government led the way with a gain of 40 jobs, followed by Indian tribal and local education with 10 jobs each. Unemployment (Household Survey Data) Wasco County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose by 1.0 percentage point in May to 11.3 percent. The county’s raw – unadjusted – unemployment rate rose by 0.7 percentage point to 10.3 percent. Unemployment rose by 93 in May to total 1,340 while its year-ago total was substantially lower, at 617.

Mid Columbia Regular Weekly UI Claimswith Raw Monthly Unemployment Rate

5.44.9 5.0 5.2

9.9 9.9 9.610.4

4.65.3

5.86.2

01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Week Number

UI Claims

Wheeler County: Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data) Employment in Wheeler County rose by 20 in May to 300 jobs. Private industry chipped in 10 to total 150 while government added 10 jobs. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Wheeler County was expected to add 30 jobs in May – but over the past seven years it’s averaged a gain of about 15 jobs. Unemployment (Household Survey Data) Wheeler County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose by 0.7 percentage point in May to 10.4 percent. The county’s raw – unadjusted – unemployment rate fell 0.8 percentage point to 9.1 percent. The number of unemployed fell by three in May to total 62, while its year-ago total was less than half that level, at 26. Oregon Employment Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent in May compared with 11.8 percent (as revised) in April. The 12.4 percent reading was the highest on record since the current series began in 1976, topping the previous high mark of 12.1 percent set in November 1982. In May, 240,615 Oregonians were unemployed. In May 2008, 103,441 Oregonians were unemployed. While the May unemployment rate is at a historically high level, the increase in Oregon’s unemployment rate has moderated over the last two months. Between March and May, the rate rose from 11.9 percent to 12.4 percent. This is an increase of 0.5 percentage point over a two-month period. This moderation in the rise of the unemployment rate followed a trend of very rapid monthly increases between October 2008 (when the rate was 7.2%) and March 2009. During this five-month period, the rate rose by an average of nearly a full percentage point per month. In May, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined by 100 jobs, following a drop of 8,100 (as revised) in April. The May employment figures were by far the smallest job loss of any month over the past 10 months. In May, most of the major industries followed their normal seasonal patterns. This was in contrast with the prior eight months, when many industries cut employment sharply below normal seasonal expectations. In May, all of the major industries except two saw their employment change by within 600 jobs of their normal seasonal movement.

Oregon and U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates, January 2005 - Current

Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09

Month and Year

U.S. Oregon

Manufacturing was one exception, where employment continued to fall below normal seasonal patterns. It cut 1,300 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. Leisure and hospitality was the other exception, as it grew by 1,600 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. National Employment The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percentage points. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000 in May to 132.2 million. The decline was about half of the average monthly job loss for the prior six months (-643,000). Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.0 million. In May, job losses continued to be widespread across major industry sectors. Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while the rate of decline moderated in several industries, including construction, professional and business services, and retail trade. Manufacturing employment fell by 156,000 in May. Job losses occurred in most component industries. Three durable goods industries – motor vehicles and parts (-30,000), machinery (-26,000), and fabricated metal products (-19,000) – accounted for about half of the overall decline in factory employment. Since its most recent peak in February 2000, employment in motor vehicles and parts has fallen by about 50 percent. Mining shed 11,000 jobs in May, about the same number as in April. Employment in construction decreased by 59,000 in May compared with an average monthly job loss of 117,000 for the previous six months. In May, employment fell in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-30,000) and in residential construction of buildings (-11,000). Job losses in professional and business services moderated in May, with the industry shedding 51,000 jobs. This compares with an average loss of 136,000 jobs per month in the prior six months. The temporary help services industry, which had been dropping an average of 73,000 jobs per month over this period, saw little employment change in May (-7,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality was flat over the month. The industry had lost an average of 39,000 jobs per month during the prior six months. Retail trade employment was down 18,000 in May; job cutbacks in retail trade have moderated markedly in the past two months. Employment in wholesale trade fell by 22,000 over the month, with over half of the decrease (-14,000) among durable goods wholesalers. Financial activities employment continued to decrease in May (-30,000). Securities lost 10,000 jobs and real estate lost 9,000. Employment in credit intermediation continued to trend down, although the May job loss was well below the average job loss for the prior six months. Employment in information decreased by 24,000 in May. Health care employment increased by 24,000 in May, about in line with its average monthly job growth so far in 2009. Employment in government changed little in May.

The change in total nonfarm employment for March was revised from -699,000 to -652,000, and the change for April was revised from -539,000 to -504,000.

CHANGE FROMLabor Force Status May-09 Apr-09 May-08 Apr-09 May-08Civilian Labor Force 1,116 1,110 1,153 6 (37) Unemployment 92 99 36 (7) 56 Unemployment Rate 8.2 8.9 3.1 XXX XXX Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted 9.3 9.2 4.2 XXX XXXTotal Employment 1,024 1,011 1,117 13 (93)

Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentTotal nonfarm 840 815 930 25 (90) Total private 595 585 670 10 (75) Trade, transportation, and utilities 75 75 160 0 (85) Professional and business services 130 130 155 0 (25) Educational and health services 70 65 75 5 (5) Leisure and hospitality 50 45 65 5 (15) Government 245 230 260 15 (15) Federal government 15 15 10 0 5 State government 40 40 40 0 0 Local government 190 175 210 15 (20)

CHANGE FROMLabor Force Status May-09 Apr-09 May-08 Apr-09 May-08Civilian Labor Force 1,001 1,007 955 (6) 46 Unemployment 89 104 47 (15) 42 Unemployment Rate 8.9 10.3 4.9 XXX XXX Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted 9.8 10.9 5.8 XXX XXXTotal Employment 912 903 908 9 4

Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentTotal nonfarm 755 745 745 10 10 Total private 460 450 435 10 25 Trade, transportation, and utilities 170 170 175 0 (5) Retail trade 85 85 90 0 (5) Leisure and hospitality 125 120 115 5 10 Government 295 295 310 0 (15) Federal government 85 85 95 0 (10) State government 40 40 40 0 0 Local government 170 170 175 0 (5)

The most recent month is preliminary, the prior month is revised. Civilian labor force includes employed and unemployed individuals 16 years and older by place of residence. Data are adjusted for multiple job-holding and commuting. Includes nonfarm payroll employment, self-employed, unpaid family workers, domestics, agriculture,and labor disputants. Unemployment rate derived by dividing unemployment by civilian labor force.Nonfarm payroll employment data cover full- and part-time employees who worked during or received pay for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. The data exclude the self-employed, volunteers,unpaid family workers, and domestics. Persons on sick leave, vacations, or holidays, and being paid for that period by their employer, are considered employed. Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Dept. of Labor

Gilliam County Labor Force and Industry Employment

Sherman County Labor Force and Industry Employment

CHANGE FROMLabor Force Status May-09 Apr-09 May-08 Apr-09 May-08Civilian Labor Force 12,545 13,016 12,259 (471) 286 Unemployment 1,351 1,246 623 105 728 Unemployment Rate 10.8 9.6 5.1 XXX XXX Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted 10.2 10.0 4.8 XXX XXXTotal Employment 11,194 11,770 11,636 (576) (442)

Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentTotal nonfarm 9,670 9,930 10,160 (260) (490) Total private 8,220 8,480 8,690 (260) (470) Mining, logging, and construction 410 400 510 10 (100) Manufacturing 1,230 1,220 1,400 10 (170) Trade, transportation, and utilities 1,950 1,880 1,990 70 (40) Wholesale trade 490 470 520 20 (30) Retail trade 1,300 1,260 1,310 40 (10) Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 160 150 160 10 0 Information 140 140 140 0 0 Financial activities 320 320 320 0 0 Professional and business services 680 680 700 0 (20) Educational and health services 1,780 1,780 1,730 0 50 Leisure and hospitality 1,440 1,790 1,640 (350) (200) Arts, entertainment, and recreation 210 600 270 (390) (60) Accommodation and food services 1,230 1,190 1,370 40 (140) Accommodation 270 290 380 (20) (110) Food services and drinking places 960 900 990 60 (30) Other services 270 270 260 0 10 Government 1,450 1,450 1,470 0 (20) Federal government 110 110 110 0 0 State government 130 130 140 0 (10) Local government 1,210 1,210 1,220 0 (10) Local government education 740 740 740 0 0 Local government other 470 470 480 0 (10)

Hood River County Labor Force and Industry Employment

CHANGE FROMLabor Force Status May-09 Apr-09 May-08 Apr-09 May-08Civilian Labor Force 12,947 12,931 12,595 16 352 Unemployment 1,340 1,247 617 93 723 Unemployment Rate 10.3 9.6 4.9 XXX XXX Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted 11.3 10.3 5.4 XXX XXXTotal Employment 11,607 11,684 11,978 (77) (371)

Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentTotal nonfarm 9,460 9,420 9,810 40 (350) Total private 6,940 6,940 7,350 0 (410) Mining and logging 50 40 50 10 0 Construction 330 320 410 10 (80) Manufacturing 500 620 700 (120) (200) Trade, transportation, and utilities 1,960 1,950 2,070 10 (110) Wholesale trade 230 230 240 0 (10) Retail trade 1,520 1,520 1,620 0 (100) Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 210 200 210 10 0 Information 120 120 120 0 0 Financial activities 330 330 370 0 (40) Professional and business services 500 510 490 (10) 10 Educational and health services 1,670 1,670 1,670 0 0 Ambulatory health care services 380 390 360 (10) 20 Nursing and residential care facilities 470 470 490 0 (20) Leisure and hospitality 1,140 1,040 1,130 100 10 Accommodation and food services 970 910 970 60 0 Other services 340 340 340 0 0 Government 2,520 2,480 2,460 40 60 Federal government 330 340 330 (10) 0 State government 340 330 340 10 0 Local government 1,850 1,810 1,790 40 60 Indian tribal 380 370 370 10 10 Local education 820 800 810 20 10 Local government other 650 640 610 10 40

Wasco County Labor Force and Industry Employment

CHANGE FROMLabor Force Status May-09 Apr-09 May-08 Apr-09 May-08Civilian Labor Force 680 657 620 23 60 Unemployment 62 65 26 (3) 36 Unemployment Rate 9.1 9.9 4.2 XXX XXX Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted 10.4 9.7 4.8 XXX XXXTotal Employment 618 592 594 26 24

Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentTotal nonfarm 300 280 300 20 0 Total private 150 140 155 10 (5) Trade, transportation, and utilities 35 35 35 0 0 Leisure and hospitality 30 25 30 5 0 Government 150 140 145 10 5 Federal government 10 5 5 5 5 State government 10 10 10 0 0 Local government 130 125 130 5 0

Wheeler County Labor Force and Industry Employment

July 2009 Local Trends Morrow County: Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data) Employment in Morrow County rose by 10 jobs in May to 3,470. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Morrow County was pegged to add around 70 jobs – leaving it about 60 jobs short of expectations. On average Morrow County generally adds about 60 jobs in May (2001-2008). On a positive note, nonfarm employment rose significantly over the year, climbing 160 jobs (+4.8%). Private industry held steady with 2,480 jobs in May. A loss of 10 in manufacturing was the private sector’s only loss, while a gain of 10 in financial activities was its only gain. Manufacturing was the county’s leading industry over the year, adding 80 jobs for a 7.8 percent gain. Wholesale trade (+40), mining and logging (+10), retail trade (+10), educational and health services (+10), and other services (+10) also added jobs over the year. Private-industry losses over the year were limited to financial activities (-20) and leisure and hospitality (-10). Government employment rose by 10 in May with all of the month’s gain attributed to local government. Government climbed by 30 over the year, with local government leading the way. An over-the-year increase of 10 in state government offset a loss of 10 in federal government. Unemployment (Household Survey Data) Morrow County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose by an unexpected 4.5 percentage points in May to 14.2 percent. The county’s raw – unadjusted – unemployment rate

INDICATORS

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE MAY 2009 APR Morrow 12.4 8.9 Morrow SA 14.2 9.7 Umatilla 10.4 10.4 Umatilla SA 11.8 10.7 Oregon Raw 12.1 11.9 Oregon SA 12.4 11.8 U.S. Raw 9.1 8.6 U.S. SA 9.4 8.9 TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLL

EMPLOYMENT MAY 2009 CHANGE FROM PRELIMINARY APR Morrow 3,470 10 Morrow SA 3,510 110 Umatilla 27,800 (30) Umatilla SA 27,670 70

All Items, 1982-84=100 Urban Consumers

Portland-Salem, OR-WA Jul. - Dec. 2008 216.159 Yearly Change +2.7% Annual Average 2008 215.389 Yearly Change +3.3%

United States MAY 2009 Index 213.856 Yearly Change -1.3% Annual Average 2008 215.303 Yearly Change +3.8% Next release: 07/15/09 http://www.bls.gov/cpi

2 Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis Morrow/Umatilla Trends • July 2009

rose 3.5 percentage points to 12.4 percent. The number of unemployed rose by 217 in May to total 711, while its year-ago level was much lower, at 273. Umatilla County: Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data) Employment in Umatilla County fell by 30 in May to 27,800, while its over-the-year loss was 2.1 percent, or 600 jobs. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Umatilla County was expected to gain 110 jobs, making it about 140 jobs shy of expectations. On average, employment climbed by about 220 jobs in May (2001-2008), although it posted a 120-job loss in May 2008. Private industry gained 170 jobs in May to total 19,700. Job gains were reserved, led by an increase of 50 in accommodation and food services. A gain of 40 in professional and business services made honorable mention. Mining, logging, and construction (+20); retail trade (+20); transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+20); and nondurable goods manufacturing (+10) also added jobs. Private-industry losses since May 2008 reached 590 – a drop of 2.9 percent. Durable goods manufacturing represented the bulk of the county’s losses, falling by 560. Mining, logging, and construction cut payrolls by 130 since last year, and trade, transportation, and utilities fell by 120. Leisure and hospitality (-80), and financial activities (-60) also cut jobs over the year. Food manufacturing (+200), along with professional and business services (+170), helped to offset some private-industry losses. The public sector pulled back in May, cutting 190 jobs in local education and slicing 30 in federal government. Small gains in Indian tribal (+10), and other local (+10) lowered the public sector’s loss in May to 200 jobs. Government dropped 10 jobs over the year, with gains in local government (+60) only partially offsetting losses in state government (-60) and federal government (-10).

Columbia Basin Regular Weekly UI Claimswith Raw Monthly Unemployment Rate

7.77.0

5.36.2 6.0 5.8 5.7

10.911.4

10.2 10.6

5.3 5.4

01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Week Number

UI Claims

Morrow Umatilla Labor Trends is published by the Workforce and Economic Research Division of the Oregon Employment Department. Morrow Umatilla Labor Trends can also be found on the Publications page at www.QualityInfo.org. Material contained in this publication is in the public domain and may be reproduced without permission. Please credit Morrow Umatilla Labor Trends, Oregon Employment Department. The Oregon Employment Department is an equal opportunity employer. Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities.

Laurie Warner, Director Graham Slater, Administrator for Workforce and Economic Research Dallas Fridley, Regional Economist Hood River, (541) 386-6065 Tony Wendel, Workforce Analyst Hermiston (541) 564-5685 Kathy Mendoza, Field Office Manager Hermiston (541) 567-3381 Pendleton (541) 276-9050 Milton-Freewater (541) 938-3371

Please direct address changes to: Oregon Employment Department Workforce and Economic Research 875 Union St NE Salem OR 97311 Phone (503) 947-1204 TDD (503) 947-1391 e-mail lmipubs.emp@state.or.us

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 3 Morrow/Umatilla Trends • July 2008

Unemployment (Household Survey Data) Umatilla County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose 1.1 percentage points in May to 11.8 percent. The county’s raw (unadjusted) unemployment rate held steady at 10.4 percent. Unemployment fell by 18 in May to total 3,997 – well above the 1,981 unemployed workers in May 2008. Oregon Employment Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent in May compared with 11.8 percent (as revised) in April. The 12.4 percent reading was the highest on record since the current series began in 1976, topping the previous high mark of 12.1 percent set in November 1982. In May, 240,615 Oregonians were unemployed. In May 2008, 103,441 Oregonians were unemployed. While the May unemployment rate is at a historically high level, the increase in Oregon’s unemployment rate has moderated over the last two months. Between March and May, the rate rose from 11.9 percent to 12.4 percent. This is an increase of 0.5 percentage point over a two-month period. This moderation in the rise of the unemployment rate followed a trend of very rapid monthly increases between October 2008 (when the rate was 7.2%) and March 2009. During this five-month period, the rate rose by an average of nearly a full percentage point per month. In May, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined by 100 jobs, following a drop of 8,100 (as revised) in April. The May employment figures were by far the smallest job loss of any month over the past 10 months. In May, most of the major industries followed their normal seasonal patterns. This was in contrast with the prior eight months, when many industries cut employment sharply below normal seasonal expectations. In May, all of the major industries except two saw their employment change by within 600 jobs of their normal seasonal movement. Manufacturing was one exception, where employment continued to fall below normal seasonal patterns. It cut 1,300 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. Leisure and hospitality was the other exception, as it grew by 1,600 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. National Employment The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the

Oregon and U.S. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates, January 2005 - Current

Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09

Month and Year

U.S. Oregon

number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percentage points. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000 in May to 132.2 million. The decline was about half of the average monthly job loss for the prior six months (-643,000). Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.0 million. In May, job losses continued to be widespread across major industry sectors. Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while the rate of decline moderated in several industries, including construction, professional and business services, and retail trade. Manufacturing employment fell by 156,000 in May. Job losses occurred in most component industries. Three durable goods industries – motor vehicles and parts (-30,000), machinery (-26,000), and fabricated metal products (-19,000) – accounted for about half of the overall decline in factory employment. Since its most recent peak in February 2000, employment in motor vehicles and parts has fallen by about 50 percent. Mining shed 11,000 jobs in May, about the same number as in April. Employment in construction decreased by 59,000 in May compared with an average monthly job loss of 117,000 for the previous six months. In May, employment fell in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-30,000) and in residential construction of buildings (-11,000). Job losses in professional and business services moderated in May, with the industry shedding 51,000 jobs. This compares with an average loss of 136,000 jobs per month in the prior six months. The temporary help services industry, which had been dropping an average of 73,000 jobs per month over this period, saw little employment change in May (-7,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality was flat over the month. The industry had lost an average of 39,000 jobs per month during the prior six months. Retail trade employment was down 18,000 in May; job cutbacks in retail trade have moderated markedly in the past two months. Employment in wholesale trade fell by 22,000 over the month, with over half of the decrease (-14,000) among durable goods wholesalers. Financial activities employment continued to decrease in May (-30,000). Securities lost 10,000 jobs and real estate lost 9,000. Employment in credit intermediation continued to trend down, although the May job loss was well below the average job loss for the prior six months. Employment in information decreased by 24,000 in May. Health care employment increased by 24,000 in May, about in line with its average monthly job growth so far in 2009. Employment in government changed little in May. The change in total nonfarm employment for March was revised from -699,000 to -652,000, and the change for April was revised from -539,000 to -504,000.

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 5 Morrow/Umatilla Trends • July 2008

CHANGE FROMLabor Force Status May-09 Apr-09 May-08 Apr-09 May-08Civilian Labor Force 5,755 5,567 5,390 188 365 Unemployment 711 494 273 217 438 Unemployment Rate 12.4 8.9 5.1 XXX XXX Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted 14.2 9.7 5.8 XXX XXXTotal Employment 5,044 5,073 5,117 (29) (73)

Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentTotal nonfarm 3,470 3,460 3,310 10 160 Total private 2,480 2,480 2,350 0 130 Mining and logging 20 20 10 0 10 Construction 40 40 40 0 0 Manufacturing 1,100 1,110 1,020 (10) 80 Trade, transportation, and utilities 820 820 770 0 50 Wholesale trade 250 250 210 0 40 Retail trade 200 200 190 0 10 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 370 370 370 0 0 Information 20 20 20 0 0 Financial activities 70 60 90 10 (20) Professional and business services 60 60 60 0 0 Educational and health services 120 120 110 0 10 Leisure and hospitality 170 170 180 0 (10) Other services 60 60 50 0 10 Government 990 980 960 10 30 Federal government 60 60 70 0 (10) State government 120 120 110 0 10 Local government 810 800 780 10 30

Morrow County Labor Force and Industry Employment

CHANGE FROMLabor Force Status May-09 Apr-09 May-08 Apr-09 May-08Civilian Labor Force 38,579 38,790 37,057 (211) 1,522 Unemployment 3,997 4,015 1,981 (18) 2,016 Unemployment Rate 10.4 10.4 5.3 XXX XXX Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted 11.8 10.7 6.0 XXX XXXTotal Employment 34,582 34,775 35,076 (193) (494)

Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentTotal nonfarm 27,800 27,830 28,400 (30) (600) Total private 19,700 19,530 20,290 170 (590) Mining, logging and construction 990 970 1,120 20 (130) Manufacturing 2,770 2,760 3,150 10 (380) Durable goods 900 900 1,460 0 (560) Nondurable goods 1,870 1,860 1,690 10 180 Food manufacturing 1,680 1,660 1,480 20 200 Trade, transportation, and utilities 6,590 6,550 6,710 40 (120) Wholesale trade 770 770 810 0 (40) Retail trade 3,220 3,200 3,270 20 (50) Food and beverage stores 570 560 610 10 (40) General merchandise stores 910 920 800 (10) 110 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 2,600 2,580 2,630 20 (30) Information 220 220 220 0 0 Financial activities 830 830 890 0 (60) Professional and business services 2,470 2,430 2,300 40 170 Educational and health services 2,840 2,840 2,830 0 10 Nursing and residential care facilities 790 790 810 0 (20) Leisure and hospitality 2,330 2,270 2,410 60 (80) Accommodation and food services 2,150 2,100 2,220 50 (70) Other services 660 660 660 0 0 Government 8,100 8,300 8,110 (200) (10) Federal government 860 890 870 (30) (10) State government 2,000 2,000 2,060 0 (60) Local government 5,240 5,410 5,180 (170) 60 Indian tribal 1,330 1,320 1,300 10 30 Local education 2,800 2,990 2,780 (190) 20 Local government other 1,110 1,100 1,100 10 10

Umatilla County Labor Force and Industry Employment

July 2009

The Latest Employment Data The state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 12.4 percent in May, an increase from April (11.8%). The nation’s rate increased to 9.4 percent in May. The total number of people employed in Oregon – estimated from a survey of households – fell by nearly 6,000 from April to May and the number of people unemployed increased by about 2,000. Total employment was about 87,000 lower this May than in May 2008. Nonfarm payroll employment in Oregon – estimated from a survey of businesses – climbed by almost 10,000 jobs in May, but was about 93,000 lower than one year before. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May increased significantly in Clatsop, Columbia and Tillamook counties. Total employment was stable or fell in all three counties and the estimated number of people unemployed decreased in Clatsop County and increased slightly in Columbia and Tillamook counties. CLATSOP COUNTY Clatsop County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May was 11.0 percent. The rate was 4.7 percent the previous May. The estimated number of unemployed in May dropped by 47 to 1,918 – this was 1,097 more than one year before. The estimated number of employed Clatsop County residents was essentially unchanged at 18,307. This was 1,038 fewer than its level one year before. Seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll employment in Clatsop County dropped by 160 in May. A gain of 300 jobs is normal for the month, but nonfarm employment in the county increased by only 140 to 16,770.

Seasonally Adjusted Clatsop May 11.0% April 10.2% Columbia May 15.7% April 15.2% Tillamook May 11.5% April 10.2% Portland PMSA May 12.3% April 11.9% Oregon May 12.4% April 11.8% United States May 9.4% April 8.9%

Average Pay Per Job – 2008 Clatsop County $30,864 Columbia County $33,117 Tillamook County $30,488

Consumer Price Index (CPI) Monthly Annual Change Change United States +0.3% -1.3% (May) Portland PMSA +2.7% (July.-Dec. 2008)

Consumer Confidence From the Conference Board

Monthly Index Change May 54.9 +14.1

Federal Reserve Data Monthly Level Change Prime Rate May 20 3.25% 0 Oregon GDP Index 163.03 -2.0%

2 Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis Northwest Oregon Trends • July 2009

The private sector added 60 jobs and governments gained 80. Leisure and hospitality added 50 jobs while retail lost 40. Local governments, excluding education, added 70 jobs. May’s total nonfarm payroll employment was 1,000 less than its year-ago level. The county added 240 jobs in local government over the past year but lost 290 construction jobs, 270 from leisure and hospitality, and 330 from retail trade. Community News Daily Astorian, May 28, 2009 Logging companies in Clatsop County reported to county commissioners that their industry has lost jobs recently. The owner of J.M. Browning Logging Co. stated that his company's employment dropped from 130 to 80 and then dropped more in late May. Logger Herb Olstedt noted that his company had reduced its employment by half recently. Mill closures and slowdowns were noted as the principal reasons. Daily Astorian, June 11, 2009 The Columbia Memorial Health and Wellness Pavilion in Astoria is set to open its third floor addition. The addition will house six new clinics. COLUMBIA COUNTY Columbia County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 15.7 percent in May. The county’s rate was 6.2 percent one year before. The number of unemployed people increased by 19 in May to 3,675. This was 2,308 more than one year before. The number of employed people fell by 126 to 21,651. This was 1,103 fewer than one year before.

Oregon Clatsop County

Clatsop County: Year-to-Year Employment Change May 2007 to May 2009

Northwest Oregon Labor Trends is published by the Workforce and Economic Research Division of the Oregon Employment Department. Northwest Oregon Labor Trends also can be found on the Publications page at www.QualityInfo.org. Material contained in this publication is in the public domain and May be reproduced without permission. Please credit Northwest Oregon Labor Trends, Oregon Employment Department.

Laurie Warner, Director Graham Slater, Administrator for Workforce and Economic Research Erik Knoder, Regional Economist Shawna Skyes, Workforce Analyst St. Helens (503) 397-4995 x232 Joyce Aho, Field Office Manager Astoria (503) 325-4821 St. Helens (503) 397-4995 Tillamook (503) 842-4488

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 3 Northwest Oregon Trends • July 2009

Columbia County’s seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment dropped by 110 in May. A gain of 70 jobs is normal for the month, but nonfarm employment in the county dropped by 40 to 9,970. The private sector shed 60 jobs. Manufacturing cut 20 jobs and trade, transportation and utilities shed 40. Local governments added 20. Total nonfarm employment in the county was 1,170 below the level one year before. The county gained a few government jobs but lost jobs in manufacturing, retail trade, and mining and logging. Community News Chronicle, June 3, 2009 The Columbia County Sheriff's Office is cutting 17 job positions, one-third of its workforce, due to budget restrictions. The cuts will be effective August 1st. TILLAMOOK COUNTY Tillamook County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in May was 11.5 percent, a significant increase from April (10.2%) and more than double the rate one year before (5.0%). The estimated number of unemployed rose by 57 in May to 1,283. This was 719 more than one year before. The number of employed dropped by 207 to 11,188. This was 716 fewer people employed than one year before. Tillamook County’s seasonally adjusted total nonfarm payroll employment dropped 240 in May. A gain of 140 jobs is normal for the month, but nonfarm employment in the county fell by 100 to 8,210. The private sector lost 170 jobs. Local governments added 70 jobs. Wood product manufacturing cut 90 jobs, retail shed 50 jobs, and leisure and hospitality added 40. Nonfarm employment was 560 below the level one year before. The biggest losses over the year were in manufacturing and trade.

Oregon

Columbia County, OR

Columbia County: Year-to-Year Employment Change May 2007 to May 2009

Oregon

Tillamook County, OR

Community News Headlight Herald, May 27, 2009 The Westwind Stewardship Group, the nonprofit owner of Camp Westwind near Lincoln City, hired an executive director. The director will focus on community outreach in addition to conservation on the 529-acre preserve. Imago Dei Photography has opened in Beaver. The business offers family, individual, wedding, infant, and maternity photos. Headlight Herald, June 10, 2009 The Neskowin Post Office is closed temporarily until a new postmaster can be hired. The U.S. Postal Service is taking applications for the position. The Tillamook County United Way plans to hire a part-time fundraiser for the first time in its history to help with its annual campaign. National Consumer Expenditures Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Between 2006 and 2007, average annual consumer expenditures rose by nearly 2.6 percent to reach $49,638 per consumer unit (similar to a household). There was an average of 2.5 people per consumer unit. The larger percentage increases in spending occurred in entertainment (13.6%) and education (6.4%). Average spending on housing increased 3.4 percent and it increased 3.1 percent on healthcare in 2007. Average spending on alcoholic beverages declined 8.0 percent in 2007 and cash contributions dropped an average of 2.6 percent. Graph 1 shows the distribution of annual expenditures in 2005. Some specific spending categories showed larger changes. Average spending on vehicle insurance rose nearly 21 percent in 2007 and the amount spent on eggs shot up 16 percent. Spending related to transportation and petroleum increased in 2007. The average spending on fuel oil and other fuels increased 9.4 percent, spending on gasoline and motor oil went up 7.0 percent and public transportation expenditures increased 6.5 percent. Different consumers spent their money differently. Consumers with less income – the bottom 20 percent of the income distribution – spent relatively more of their money on housing (40.5% vs. 32.5%), food (14.8% vs. 10.8%) and health care (7.2% vs. 4.4%) than did the top 20 percent of consumers by income. The highest income group spent relatively more on transportation, entertainment, cash contributions and pensions.

Tillamook County: Year-to-Year Employment Change May 2007 to May 2009

U.S. Average Annual Expenditures 2007

Miscellaneous, 1.6%

Cash contributions, 3.7%

Personal insurance and pensions, 10.8%

Tobacco products and smoking supplies,

Education, 1.9%

Reading, 0.2%

Personal care products and services,

1.2%Entertainment, 5.4%

Health care, 5.7%

Transportation, 17.6% Apparel and services, 3.8%

Food, 12.4%

Housing, 34.1%

Alcoholic beverages, 0.9%

Graph 1

In fact, the two categories showing the greatest differences between spending by the rich and the poor were rental housing and pensions. As a group, the poorest one-fifth spent 15.3 percent of their income on rent and only 2.2 percent on pensions and social security; the richest one-fifth spent only 1.3 percent of their income on rent but 13.8 percent on pensions and social security. Graph 2 shows the average share of expenditures on various categories for the lowest 20 percent of income earners and the highest 20 percent of earners. The lowest fifth averaged $20,471 in expenditures in 2007 and the highest averaged $96,752 in expenditures. Some economists have estimated that consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey collects this information. A sample of consumers is surveyed and either asked to record their spending in a diary or they are interviewed once per quarter over five consecutive quarters. The data also are used for regular revisions of the consumer price index. The data are available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Website at www.bls.gov. National Employment The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percentage points. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000 in May to 132.2 million. The decline was about half of the average monthly job loss for the prior six months (-643,000). Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.0 million. In May, job losses continued to be widespread across major industry sectors. Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while the rate of decline moderated in several industries, including construction, professional and business services, and retail trade. Manufacturing employment fell by 156,000 in May. Job losses occurred in most component industries. Three durable goods industries – motor vehicles and parts (-30,000), machinery (-26,000), and fabricated metal products (-19,000) – accounted for about half of the overall decline in factory employment. Since its most recent peak in February 2000, employment in motor vehicles and parts has fallen by about 50 percent. Mining shed 11,000 jobs in May, about the same number as in April.

Expenditure Shares by Income Quintile 2007

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Alcoholic beverages

Housing

Apparel and services

Transportation

Health care

Entertainment

Personal care products and services

Reading

Education

Tobacco products and smoking supplies

Miscellaneous

Cash contributions

Personal insurance and pensions

Highest 20 percent (Averge Expenditures: $96,752)

Lowest 20 percent (Average Expenditures: $20,471)

Graph 2

Employment in construction decreased by 59,000 in May compared with an average monthly job loss of 117,000 for the previous six months. In May, employment fell in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-30,000) and in residential construction of buildings (-11,000). Job losses in professional and business services moderated in May, with the industry shedding 51,000 jobs. This compares with an average loss of 136,000 jobs per month in the prior six months. The temporary help services industry, which had been dropping an average of 73,000 jobs per month over this period, saw little employment change in May (-7,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality was flat over the month. The industry had lost an average of 39,000 jobs per month during the prior six months. Retail trade employment was down 18,000 in May; job cutbacks in retail trade have moderated markedly in the past two months. Employment in wholesale trade fell by 22,000 over the month, with over half of the decrease (-14,000) among durable goods wholesalers. Financial activities employment continued to decrease in May (-30,000). Securities lost 10,000 jobs and real estate lost 9,000. Employment in credit intermediation continued to trend down, although the May job loss was well below the average job loss for the prior six months. Employment in information decreased by 24,000 in May. Health care employment increased by 24,000 in May, about in line with its average monthly job growth so far in 2009. Employment in government changed little in May. The change in total nonfarm employment for March was revised from -699,000 to -652,000, and the change for April was revised from -539,000 to -504,000. Oregon Employment Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent in May compared with 11.8 percent (as revised) in April. The 12.4 percent reading was the highest on record since the current series began in 1976, topping the previous high mark of 12.1 percent set in November 1982. In May, 240,615 Oregonians were unemployed. In May 2008, 103,441 Oregonians were unemployed.

Interest rates provide clues about the future of the economy. Lower interest rates generally decrease the cost of doing business and tend to promote growth in output, employment, and prices. The prime rate held steady from May to June at 3.25 percent. The Fed reduced the target rate for its funds to 0.25 percent in mid December – essentially as low as it can go. Conventional 30-year mortgage rates rose sharply to about 5.38 percent as buyers shifted from bonds to equities. Rates on 10-year Treasury notes also rose nearly half a percentage point to 3.75 percent. The rate for three-month Treasury bills remained low at around 0.17 percent. The consumer price index increased by 0.3 percent in May. Rising energy prices contributed to the change. The index showed a decline of 1.3 percent over the previous 12 months. The Conference Board’s leading index for the national economy increased 1.2 percent in May – the second consecutive monthly increase. It was pulled down by the drop in weekly hours worked and unemployment claims but it was buoyed by the increase in the interest rate spread, consumer expectations and the increase in building permits. The consumer confidence index rose sharply to 54.9 in May from 40.8 in April. It was the third consecutive month with an increase.

While the May unemployment rate is at a historically high level, the increase in Oregon’s unemployment rate has moderated over the last two months. Between March and May, the rate rose from 11.9 percent to 12.4 percent. This is an increase of 0.5 percentage point over a two-month period. This moderation in the rise of the unemployment rate followed a trend of very rapid monthly increases between October 2008 (when the rate was 7.2%) and March 2009. During this five-month period, the rate rose by an average of nearly a full percentage point per month. In May, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined by 100 jobs, following a drop of 8,100 (as revised) in April. The May employment figures were by far the smallest job loss of any month over the past 10 months. In May, most of the major industries followed their normal seasonal patterns. This was in contrast with the prior eight months, when many industries cut employment sharply below normal seasonal expectations. In May, all of the major industries except two saw their employment change by within 600 jobs of their normal seasonal movement. Manufacturing was one exception, where employment continued to fall below normal seasonal patterns. It cut 1,300 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. Leisure and hospitality was the other exception, as it grew by 1,600 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Civilian labor force 20,225 20,271 20,166 -46 59 Unemployed 1,918 1,965 821 -47 1,097 Unemployment rate 9.5% 9.7% 4.1% -0.2% 5.4% Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 11.0% 10.2% 4.7% 0.8% 6.3% Total Employment 18,307 18,306 19,345 1 -1,038

CLATSOP COUNTY NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT(by place of work)

TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT 2009 2009 2008 2009 2008Total nonfarm 16,770 16,630 17,770 140 -1,000Total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted 16,700 16,860 17,690 -160 -990

TOTAL PRIVATE 13,580 13,520 14,850 60 -1,270 Mining and Logging 180 180 300 0 -120 Construction 890 870 1,180 20 -290 Manufacturing 1,950 1,930 2,120 20 -170 Durable goods 560 560 600 0 -40 Wood product manufacturing 300 300 290 0 10 Nondurable goods 1,390 1,370 1,520 20 -130 Food manufacturing 370 350 520 20 -150 Paper manufacturing 1,000 1,000 980 0 20 Trade, transportation, and utilities 2,630 2,670 2,980 -40 -350 Wholesale trade 160 160 170 0 -10 Retail trade 2,170 2,210 2,500 -40 -330 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 300 300 310 0 -10 Information 180 180 190 0 -10 Financial activities 610 590 670 20 -60 Professional and business services 660 660 750 0 -90 Educational and health services 2,170 2,170 2,030 0 140 Leisure and hospitality 3,710 3,660 3,980 50 -270 Accommodation and food services 3,390 3,400 3,690 -10 -300 Accommodation 1,180 1,140 1,260 40 -80 Food services and drinking places 2,210 2,260 2,430 -50 -220 Other services 600 610 650 -10 -50 GOVERNMENT 3,190 3,110 2,920 80 270 Federal government 250 270 210 -20 40 State government 440 430 450 10 -10 Local goverrnment 2,500 2,410 2,260 90 240 Local education 1,240 1,220 1,180 20 60 Local government excluding education 1,260 1,190 1,080 70 180 Labor-management disputes 0 0 0 0 0

CLATSOP COUNTY CURRENT LABOR FORCE AND INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

-Change from-

The most recent month is preliminary, the prior month is revised. Prepared by the Oregon Employment Department in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.Labor Force Status: Civilian labor force includes employed and unemployed individuals 16 years and older by place of residence. Employed includes nonfarm payroll employment, self-employed, unpaid family workers, domestics, agriculture, and labor disputants. Unemployment rate is calculated by dividing unemployed by civilian labor force.

Civilian labor force 25,326 25,433 24,121 -107 1,205 Unemployed 3,675 3,656 1,367 19 2,308 Unemployment rate 14.5% 14.4% 5.7% 0.1% 8.8% Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 15.7% 15.2% 6.2% 0.5% 9.5% Total Employment 21,651 21,777 22,754 -126 -1,103

(by place of work) May April May April May

TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT 2009 2009 2008 2009 2008Total nonfarm 9,970 10,010 11,140 -40 -1,170Total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted 9,910 10,020 11,070 -110 -1,160

TOTAL PRIVATE 7,620 7,680 8,800 -60 -1,180 Mining and Logging 190 200 270 -10 -80 Construction 380 370 460 10 -80 Manufacturing 1,350 1,370 2,010 -20 -660 Durable goods 970 970 1,200 0 -230 Wood product manufacturing 260 260 420 0 -160 Nondurable goods 380 400 810 -20 -430 Paper manufacturing 170 180 490 -10 -320 Trade, transportation, and utilities 1,860 1,900 2,120 -40 -260 Retail trade 1,280 1,290 1,410 -10 -130 Information 100 110 130 -10 -30 Financial activities 510 530 530 -20 -20 Professional and business services 630 640 700 -10 -70 Educational and health services 1,080 1,050 1,030 30 50 Leisure and hospitality 1,080 1,070 1,150 10 -70 Other services 440 440 400 0 40 GOVERNMENT 2,350 2,330 2,340 20 10 Federal government 110 120 80 -10 30 State government 230 220 250 10 -20 Local government 2,010 1,990 2,010 20 0 Local education 1,300 1,290 1,320 10 -20 Local government excluding education 710 700 690 10 20Labor-management disputes 0 0 0 0 0

Columbia County is a part of the Portland Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area (PMSA). Although the labor force estimates are official, based on a procedure approved by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, they are not considered to be as accurate as those produced for the entire Portland PMSA. The Portland PMSA consists of Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill counties in Oregon, plus Clark County in Washington state.

COLUMBIA COUNTY CURRENT LABOR FORCE AND INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

COLUMBIA COUNTY NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT

-Change from-

Civilian labor force 12,471 12,621 12,468 -150 3 Unemployed 1,283 1,226 564 57 719 Unemployment rate 10.3% 9.7% 4.5% 0.6% 5.8% Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 11.5% 10.2% 5.0% 1.3% 6.5% Total Employment 11,188 11,395 11,904 -207 -716

TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT 2009 2009 2008 2009 2008Total nonfarm 8,210 8,310 8,770 -100 -560Total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted 8,150 8,390 8,700 -240 -550

TOTAL PRIVATE 6,120 6,290 6,700 -170 -580 Mining and Logging 210 210 240 0 -30 Construction 360 360 430 0 -70 Manufacturing 1,190 1,330 1,410 -140 -220 Durable goods 410 510 530 -100 -120 Wood product manufacturing 340 430 420 -90 -80 Nondurable goods 780 820 880 -40 -100 Food manufacturing 760 800 860 -40 -100 Trade, transportation, and utilities 1,190 1,240 1,320 -50 -130 Retail trade 910 930 1,000 -20 -90 Information 70 70 70 0 0 Financial activities 410 400 450 10 -40 Professional and business services 310 320 350 -10 -40 Educational and health services 880 860 860 20 20 Leisure and hospitality 1,210 1,170 1,210 40 0 Accommodation and food services 1,170 1,130 1,160 40 10 Accommodation 410 390 370 20 40 Food services and drinking places 760 740 790 20 -30 Other services 290 330 360 -40 -70 GOVERNMENT 2,090 2,020 2,070 70 20 Federal government 150 160 130 -10 20 State government 400 390 410 10 -10 Local government 1,540 1,470 1,530 70 10 Local education 840 800 810 40 30 Local government excluding education 700 670 720 30 -20Labor-management disputes 0 0 0 0 0

TILLAMOOK COUNTY CURRENT LABOR FORCE AND INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

-Change from-

TILLAMOOK COUNTY NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT(by place of work)

July 2009 Employment Trends: Local The Portland metro area’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 11.9 percent in April to 12.3 percent in May. The year-ago rate was 5.2 percent. An estimated 137,600 area residents were unemployed; 81,000 more than one year ago. Oregon’s unemployment rate was 12.4 percent in May, while the U.S. rate rose to 9.4 percent. Seasonally adjusted employment declined by 2,200 in May. Since peaking in January 2008, the metro area lost 53,600 jobs (-5.1%). In comparison, Oregon’s nonfarm payroll employment is down 5.9 percent from its peak, and the U.S. is down 4.3 percent. Construction added 600 jobs, about half the typical gain for this time of year. May was the first month of gains since last August. Typically this seasonal industry begins ramping up in February, but this year

Seasonally Portland MSA Adjusted Raw

May 2009 12.3% 11.6%Apr 2009 11.9% 11.4%May 2008 5.2% 4.9%

OregonMay 2009 12.4% 12.1%Apr 2009 11.8% 11.9%May 2008 5.7% 5.3%

United StatesMay 2009 9.4% 9.1%Apr 2009 8.9% 8.6%May 2008 5.5% 5.2%

2009 2008Total 992,000 1,043,600Construction 51,200 62,000Manufacturing 111,900 123,600Trade, Trans., & Utilities 193,600 203,700Information 23,200 25,000Financial Activities 65,600 68,600Professional & Bus. Svc. 125,400 137,300Educ. & Health Services 135,700 133,600Leisure & Hospitality 96,000 100,800Government 151,500 150,000High Tech * 48,900 50,600

* (manufacturing and nonmanufacturing)

United States May '09 2008Yearly Change -1.3% 3.8%

Next release: July 15, 2009

Portland-Salem 2nd Half '08 2008Yearly Change 2.7% 3.3%

Next release: August 14, 2009

Apr 2009 85.1May 2009 85.0

2007-2008 % Change

Portland Metro 2,191,785 1.5%Oregon 3,791,075 1.2%

2008 Population

University of Oregon Index of Economic Indicators

www.bls.gov/cpi

Economic IndicatorsUnemployment Rates

Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentMay

(not seasonally adjusted)

12-Month Growth Rate by IndustryPortland Metro Area: May 2009

Government+1,500

Construction:-10,800

Professional & business services

-11,900

Manufacturing-11,700

Information-1,800

Trade, transportation,

& utilities-10,100

Leisure & hospitality-4,800

Financial activities-3,000

Educational& healthservices+2,100

2 Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis Portland Trends • July 2009

losses totaled 3,400 between February and April. Over the year, construction employment is down 10,800 jobs; a drop of 17.4 percent. Manufacturing declined for the tenth consecutive month in May (-500), but by less than the average of the past seven months (-1,600). Primary metals lost 300 jobs and machinery cut 200. High tech, wood products, and transportation held steady at April levels, and fabricated metals inched up by 100. Over the year, manufacturing is down 11,700 jobs (-9.5%). Trade, transportation, and utilities gained 1,000 jobs over the month, about typical for May. Retail trade accounted for the bulk of the new jobs (800). Retail is down 3,500 over the year, wholesale is down 3,000, and the transportation, warehousing, and utilities component is flat. Professional and business services took a breather in May (-100), after eight consecutive months of decline. Layoffs continued at local architecture and engineering firms, and tax preparation services pared back after the April 15th deadline. However, the temp help component added jobs (500) for the first time since last August. Educational and health services declined by 700 jobs, with gains in health partially offsetting seasonal losses in the educational component. The broad industry is up 2,100 jobs over the year; a gain of 1.6 percent. Portland’s Ranking The Portland metro area’s May unadjusted unemployment rate of 11.6 percent ranked fifth highest among the nation’s largest metro areas. Detroit had the highest jobless rate at 14.0 percent, followed by Riverside, CA (13.0%), Providence, RI (12.0%), and Charlotte, NC (12.0%). The lowest rates were for Oklahoma City (5.7%), San Antonio (5.8%), New Orleans (6.0%), and Austin (6.1%). The greater Portland metro area recorded the fastest rising unemployment rate among the nation’s largest metro areas in both April and May. But at the same time the area experienced one of the fastest growing labor forces nationally, which put upward pressure on the jobless rate.

Portland Metro Labor Trends is published by the Workforce and Economic Research Division of the Oregon Employment Department. Portland Metro Labor Trends also can be found on the Publications page at www.QualityInfo.org. Material contained in this publication is in the public domain and may be reproduced without any special permission. Please credit Portland Metro Labor Trends, Oregon Employment Department. Laurie Warner, Director

Graham Slater, Administrator for Workforce and Economic Research Amy Vander Vliet, Regional Economist Portland (503) 280-6031

Jill Cuyler, Workforce Analyst Beaverton and Hillsboro (503) 612-4277

Malcolm Boswell, Workforce Analyst Gresham (503) 666-1985 x309

Lynn Wallis, Workforce Analyst Oregon City (971) 673-6453

Christian Kaylor, Workforce Analyst Portland (503) 280-6032

Shawna Sykes, Workforce Analyst St Helens (503) 397-4995 x232

Bruce Powers, Field Office Manager Metro Tualatin (503) 612-4240 Robert Brown, Field Office Manager Metro East (503) 491-2242 Christina Aranda, Field Office Manager Hillsboro (503) 681-0214

Deanna Webber, Field Office Manager McMinnville (503) 434-7599 Tom Previs, Employment Supervisor Oregon City (971) 673-6415 Cynthia Mullen, Field Office Manager Portland-North (503) 280-6051 James Penley, Employment Supervisor St Helens (503) 397-4995 x236

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 3 Portland Trends • July 2009

Employment Trends: State Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent in May compared with 11.8 percent (as revised) in April. The 12.4 percent reading was the highest on record since the current series began in 1976, topping the previous high mark of 12.1 percent set in November 1982. In May, 240,615 Oregonians were unemployed. In May 2008, 103,441 Oregonians were unemployed. While the May unemployment rate is at a historically high level, the increase in Oregon’s unemployment rate moderated over the last two months. Between March and May, the rate rose from 11.9 percent to 12.4 percent. This is an increase of 0.5 percentage point over a two-month period. This moderation in the rise of the unemployment rate followed a trend of very rapid monthly increases between October 2008 (when the rate was 7.2 percent) and March 2009. During this five-month period, the rate rose by an average of nearly a full percentage point per month. In May, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined by 100 jobs, following a drop of 8,100 (as revised) in April. The May employment figures were by far the smallest job loss of any month over the past 10 months. In May, most of the major industries followed their normal seasonal patterns. This was in contrast with the prior eight months, when many industries cut employment sharply below normal seasonal expectations. In May, all of the major industries except two saw their employment change by within 600 jobs of their normal seasonal movement. Manufacturing was one exception, where employment continued to fall below normal seasonal patterns. It cut 1,300 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. Leisure and hospitality was the other exception, as it grew by 1,600 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. Oregon’s Job Loss Ranking All but 12 states posted job declines between April and May. All but two states lost jobs over the past year (North Dakota and Alaska). Every state with the exception of North Dakota lost jobs since their respective peaks, ranging from a 0.2-percent decline in Alaska to a loss of 9 percent in Arizona. Michigan is in a league of its own; they’ve been losing jobs continuously since June 2000. Oregon’s nonfarm employment peaked in December 2007, the same time as the nation. Since then, we’ve lost 102,200 jobs for a decline of 5.9 percent. That ranks us ninth steepest in the nation.

Oregon and U.S. Unemployment Rate 1990 - May 2009, seasonally adjusted

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

U.S. Oregon

Nationally, employment peaked in December 2007. Since then, employers cut 6 million jobs for a loss of 4.3 percent. Employment Trends: National The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons rose by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate grew by 4.5 percentage points. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000 in May to 132.2 million. The decline was about half of the average monthly job loss for the prior six months (-643,000). Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment fell by 6.0 million. In May, job losses continued to be widespread across major industry sectors. Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while the rate of decline moderated in several industries, including construction, professional and business services, and retail trade. Manufacturing employment fell by 156,000 in May. Job losses occurred in most component industries. Three durable goods industries – motor vehicles and parts (-30,000), machinery (-26,000), and fabricated metal products (-19,000) – accounted for about half of the overall decline in factory employment. Since its most recent peak in February 2000, employment in motor vehicles and parts fell by about 50 percent. Mining shed 11,000 jobs in May, about the same number as in April. Employment in construction decreased by 59,000 in May compared with an average monthly job loss of 117,000 for the previous six months. In May, employment fell in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-30,000) and in residential construction of buildings (-11,000). Job losses in professional and business services moderated in May, with the industry shedding 51,000 jobs. This compares with an average loss of 136,000 jobs per month in the prior six months. The temporary help services industry, which had been dropping an average of 73,000 jobs per month over this period, saw little employment change in May (-7,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality was flat over the month. The industry lost an average of 39,000 jobs per month during the prior six months. Retail trade employment was down 18,000 in May; job cutbacks in retail trade moderated markedly in the past two months. Employment in wholesale trade fell by 22,000 over the month, with over half of the decrease (-14,000) among durable goods wholesalers.

Total Nonfarm Employment: United Statesseasonally adjusted

122,000

124,000

126,000

128,000

130,000

132,000

134,000

136,000

138,000

140,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Financial activities employment continued to decrease in May (-30,000). Securities lost 10,000 jobs and real estate lost 9,000. Employment in credit intermediation continued to trend down, although the May job loss was well below the average job loss for the prior six months. Employment in information decreased by 24,000 in May. Health care employment increased by 24,000 in May, about in line with its average monthly job growth so far in 2009. Employment in government changed little in May. The change in total nonfarm employment for March was revised from -699,000 to -652,000, and the change for April was revised from -539,000 to -504,000.

Around the Region

A listing of employment-related events making recent news

• McCormick & Schmick’s Seafood Restaurants Inc. closed its original restaurant on Southwest First Avenue in Portland. It employed 38 people, all of whom were offered positions at the company’s other Portland area locations. Portland Business Journal, 6-3-09

• Columbia Scooters will open at the Cornelius Pass Plaza in Hillsboro. Portland Business Journal, 5-26-09

• Providence Medical Group’s Mill Plain clinic has opened in Vancouver. It is staffed by three family physicians and offers radiology and lab services. The Columbian, 5-14-09

• Cha! Cha! Cha! Mexican Taqueria will open in north Portland. Portland Business Journal, 5-26-09

• The Verdict Bar & Grill has opened in Oregon City across the street from the county courthouse. The owners will also open a deli – The Caulfield House – on the second floor of the building. Clackamas Review, 5-26-09

• Columbia River Fire and Rescue in St. Helens will cut three of its 36 positions due to a decline in tax revenue. The Chronicle, 5-30-09

• Turner Engineering Co. will move its headquarters from Clackamas to the Port of Vancouver in August. Ten workers will be relocated. It will also move its steel fabricating business at the Columbia Business Center in Vancouver, where it employs 15 workers, to the new site. Skilled metal workers will be hired and employment could reach 40 after the consolidation. The Columbian, 6-9-09

• Islands Tanning opened at the River Falls Shopping Center in West Linn. Portland Business Journal, 6-1-09

• Mt. Hood Villages Tool & Equipment Rental opened in Welches. Sandy Post, 5-26-09

• Razzoli Pizza opened in Gresham. Gresham Outlook, 6-2-09

• The Columbia County Sheriff’s Office will cut 17 positions effective August 1. The Chronicle, 6-3-09

• Y-Chrome barbershop will open in southwest Portland. Portland Business Journal, 6-8-09

• Manual Medicine and Rehab Center will open at the Sunnyside Marketplace in Clackamas. Portland Business Journal, 5-26-09

• The 20-room Inn at Red Hills opened in Dundee. Newberg Graphic, 5-29-09

• The City of Portland laid off 90 workers in its Bureau of Development Services, which processes building and land-use permits and inspects plumbing, electrical, and other construction

work. The bureau relies on fees paid by developers and homeowners, and gets no money from the city’s general fund. The Oregonian, 6-17-09

• Scamps Pet Centers in the Portland metro area and Salem have closed after the company filed for bankruptcy. KGW.com. 6-17-09

• Northwest Burgers and Fries will open at the OC Point in Oregon City. Portland Business Journal, 6-15-09

• Stearns Lending Inc. will open at the Hampton Square in Tigard. Portland Business Journal, 6-8-09

• PDX Antiques will open in northeast Portland. Portland Business Journal, 6-8-09

• Developers want to transform a former industrial site into a bustling riverfront extension of Vancouver’s downtown district, with work to begin in 2011. Plans call for a 26-acre strip of offices, stores, and homes facing riverside parks and a grassy amphitheater. Portland Business Journal, 6-10-09

• Aprende Con Amigos Bilingual Preschool has opened at the Patton Park Complex in north Portland. Portland Business Journal, 6-8-09

• Kaiser Permanente will open a clinic at Scholls Town Center in Beaverton. Portland Business Journal, 6-22-09

• Construction will begin next week on Pearl Storage, a 750-unit, 100,000-square-foot self-storage facility in Portland’s Pearl District. Portland Business Journal, 6-24-09

• The Metro regional government council budgeted $10.6 million to complete design, engineering, and construction of The Nature and Golf Learning Center, an environmentally focused nature and golf learning center at Blue Lake Regional Park in Fairview. It is scheduled for completion in the summer of 2012. Gresham Outlook, 6-16-09

• Minuteman Press, a printing business, opened at Evergreen Plaza in Vancouver. Portland Business Journal, 6-1-09

• The Bavarian Kitchen, a delicatessen and café, opened in Sandy. Sandy Post, 6-23-09

• Decca Hardwood, a flooring company, will open a showroom in Newberg. Newberg Graphic, 6-16-09

LABOR FORCE STATUSCivilian Labor Force 1,191,500 1,192,300 1,161,000 -800 30,500 Unemployed 137,600 135,900 56,600 1,700 81,000 Unemployment Rate 11.6% 11.4% 4.9% Unemployment Rate, seasonally adjusted 12.3% 11.9% 5.2% Total Employed 1,053,900 1,056,500 1,104,400 -2,600 -50,500

NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENTTotal nonfarm 992,000 990,000 1,043,600 2,000 -51,600Total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted 988,800 991,000 1,040,300 -2,200 -51,500

Total private 840,500 839,300 893,600 1,200 -53,100 Mining and logging 1,400 1,400 1,500 0 -100 Construction 51,200 50,600 62,000 600 -10,800 Construction of buildings 12,400 12,300 14,100 100 -1,700 Residential building construction 6,700 6,600 7,600 100 -900 Nonresidential building construction 5,700 5,700 6,500 0 -800 Heavy and civil engineering construction 4,900 4,600 5,900 300 -1,000 Specialty trade contractors 33,900 33,700 42,000 200 -8,100 Manufacturing 111,900 112,400 123,600 -500 -11,700 Durable goods 84,500 85,100 93,900 -600 -9,400 Wood product manufacturing 4,100 4,100 5,000 0 -900 Primary metal manufacturing 5,900 6,200 7,100 -300 -1,200 Fabricated metal product manufacturing 12,300 12,200 13,500 100 -1,200 Machinery manufacturing 7,000 7,200 8,400 -200 -1,400 Computer and electronic product manufacturing 34,200 34,200 35,800 0 -1,600 Semiconductor and electronic component mfg. 25,400 25,400 26,500 0 -1,100 Electronic instrument manufacturing 4,900 4,900 5,300 0 -400 Transportation equipment manufacturing 7,600 7,600 8,900 0 -1,300 Nondurable goods 27,400 27,300 29,700 100 -2,300 Food manufacturing 9,000 9,000 9,100 0 -100 Paper manufacturing 3,900 3,900 4,400 0 -500 Trade, transportation, and utilities 193,600 192,600 203,700 1,000 -10,100 Wholesale trade 54,900 54,800 57,900 100 -3,000 Merchant wholesalers, durable goods 25,400 25,400 27,500 0 -2,100 Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods 20,900 20,800 21,800 100 -900 Electronic markets and agents and brokers 8,600 8,600 8,600 0 0 Retail trade 103,800 103,000 107,600 800 -3,800 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 12,500 12,500 14,000 0 -1,500 Food and beverage stores 20,300 20,200 20,300 100 0 Clothing and clothing accessories stores 9,800 9,800 10,800 0 -1,000 General merchandise stores 20,000 20,100 20,300 -100 -300 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 34,900 34,800 38,200 100 -3,300 Air transportation 3,700 3,700 4,100 0 -400 Truck transportation 10,200 10,200 11,300 0 -1,100 Couriers and messengers 4,500 4,500 4,800 0 -300 Warehousing and storage 3,500 3,500 4,200 0 -700 Information 23,200 23,400 25,000 -200 -1,800 Publishing industries, except internet 9,200 9,400 10,200 -200 -1,000 Software publishers 6,700 6,700 6,800 0 -100 Telecommunications 6,100 6,200 6,500 -100 -400

---Change from---

Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton MSA Labor Force and Industry Employment

Nonfarm Payroll Employment (continued)

Financial activities 65,600 65,800 68,600 -200 -3,000 Finance and insurance 42,200 42,300 43,700 -100 -1,500 Credit intermediation and related activities 19,300 19,400 20,700 -100 -1,400 Insurance carriers and related activities 19,000 19,000 19,100 0 -100 Real estate and rental and leasing 23,400 23,500 24,900 -100 -1,500 Real estate 19,000 19,100 20,100 -100 -1,100 Professional and business services 125,400 125,500 137,300 -100 -11,900 Professional and technical services 52,100 53,000 54,300 -900 -2,200 Architectural and engineering services 11,400 11,500 12,400 -100 -1,000 Computer systems design and related services 8,000 8,000 8,000 0 0 Management of companies and enterprises 22,600 22,700 23,200 -100 -600 Administrative and waste services 50,700 49,800 59,800 900 -9,100 Administrative and support services 48,400 47,400 57,100 1,000 -8,700 Employment services 17,900 17,400 23,800 500 -5,900 Business support services 7,500 7,600 8,600 -100 -1,100 Services to buildings and dwellings 13,600 13,400 15,000 200 -1,400 Educational and health services 135,700 136,400 133,600 -700 2,100 Educational services 24,700 25,800 24,000 -1,100 700 Colleges and universities 12,300 13,200 11,900 -900 400 Health care and social assistance 111,000 110,600 109,600 400 1,400 Ambulatory health care services 43,200 42,900 41,900 300 1,300 Hospitals 29,100 29,100 28,800 0 300 Nursing and residential care facilities 21,600 21,500 21,300 100 300 Social assistance 17,100 17,100 17,600 0 -500 Leisure and hospitality 96,000 94,800 100,800 1,200 -4,800 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 14,000 14,000 15,000 0 -1,000 Amusement, gambling, and recreation 10,300 10,200 10,800 100 -500 Accommodation and food services 82,000 80,800 85,800 1,200 -3,800 Accommodation 8,900 8,700 9,300 200 -400 Food services and drinking places 73,100 72,100 76,500 1,000 -3,400 Full-service restaurants 34,700 34,100 37,400 600 -2,700 Limited-service eating places 31,400 31,000 32,100 400 -700 Other services 36,500 36,400 37,500 100 -1,000 Membership associations and organizations 16,500 16,500 16,800 0 -300 Government 151,500 150,700 150,000 800 1,500 Federal government 18,700 19,000 18,200 -300 500 State government 21,900 21,800 22,200 100 -300 State education 8,100 8,000 8,100 100 0 Local government 110,900 109,900 109,600 1,000 1,300 Local education 63,100 62,400 62,100 700 1,000

Labor Disputes 0 0 0 0 0

Employed includes payroll employment, self-employed, unpaid family workers, domestics, agriculture, and labor disputants.Unemployment rate is calculated by dividing unemployed by civilian labor force.

includes the 12th of the month. The data exclude the self-employed, volunteers, unpaid family workers, and domestics.

"Mining and logging" formerly titled "Natural resources and mining". The definition is the same.

The Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton metropolitan area includes Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill counties in Oregon, and Clark and Skamania counties in Washington State.

---Change from---

Labor Force Status: Civilian labor force includes employed and unemployed individuals 16 years and older by place of residence.

Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Data are by place of work and cover full- and part-time employees who worked or received pay for the pay period that

-Change From-May April May April May

2009 2009 2008 2009 2008Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton MSA Civilian labor force 1,191,500 1,192,300 1,161,000 -800 30,500 Unemployed 137,600 135,900 56,600 1,700 81,000 Unemployment rate 11.6 11.4 4.9 0.2 6.7 Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 12.3 11.9 5.2 0.5 7.1 Employed 1,053,900 1,056,500 1,104,400 -2,600 -50,500

Oregon portion of the MSA Civilian Labor Force 965,100 966,600 945,200 -1,500 19,900 Unemployed 107,900 104,400 44,300 3,500 63,600 Unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) 11.2 10.8 4.7 0.4 6.5 Total Employed 857,200 862,200 900,900 -5,000 -43,700

Clackamas County Civilian Labor Force 204,000 204,300 199,600 -300 4,400 Unemployed 22,800 22,000 9,200 800 13,600 Unemployment rate 11.2 10.8 4.6 0.4 6.6 Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 11.5 10.9 4.9 0.6 6.6 Total Employed 181,200 182,300 190,500 -1,100 -9,300

Columbia County Civilian Labor Force 25,330 25,430 24,120 -100 1,210 Unemployed 3,680 3,660 1,370 20 2,310 Unemployment rate 14.5 14.4 5.7 0.1 8.8 Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 15.7 15.2 6.2 0.6 9.5 Total Employed 21,650 21,780 22,750 -130 -1,100

Multnomah County Civilian Labor Force 394,000 394,300 385,300 -300 8,700 Unemployed 45,300 43,500 18,800 1,800 26,500 Unemployment rate 11.5 11.0 4.9 0.5 6.6 Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 11.7 11.1 5.1 0.6 6.6 Total Employed 348,800 350,800 366,500 -2,000 -17,700

Washington County Civilian Labor Force 292,800 293,200 288,700 -400 4,100 Unemployed 30,100 29,000 12,600 1,100 17,500 Unemployment rate 10.3 9.9 4.4 0.4 5.9 Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 11.0 10.3 4.7 0.6 6.3 Total Employed 262,800 264,300 276,100 -1,500 -13,300

Yamhill County Civilian Labor Force 48,890 49,310 47,430 -420 1,460 Unemployed 6,090 6,270 2,460 -180 3,630 Unemployment rate 12.5 12.7 5.2 (0.2) 7.3 Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted 13.7 13.3 5.7 0.4 8.0 Total Employed 42,790 43,040 44,970 -250 -2,180

Washington portion of the MSA(Clark and Skamania counties) Civilian Labor Force 226,400 225,800 215,800 600 10,600 Unemployed 29,800 31,500 12,300 -1,700 17,500 Percent of Labor Force 13.1 14.0 5.7 (0.9) 7.4 Total Employed 196,600 194,300 203,500 2,300 -6,900

Components may not sum exactly to totals due to rounding.

Estimates of labor force and unemployment for MSA components are based in part on the most recentpopulation estimates and Unemployment Insurance claims data.

Resident Labor Force and Unemployment for Regions Within the Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton MSA

July 2009

Jackson County Employment Jackson County payroll employment rose by 530 in May, boosted by gains in construction, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and local government. Over the past year, payroll employment declined by 3,390 jobs, demonstrating the depth and breadth of this tenacious recession. The county’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate climbed from 13.8 percent in April to 14.2 percent in May. Employment rose in many sectors over the month. Construction employment rose by 90, as commercial and public works construction projects helped to offset the moribund residential building sector. Professional and business services gained 70 jobs in May and rose by 40 over the year. Accommodation and food services added 280 jobs over the month, gearing up for the summer tourism season. Local government employment climbed by 180, and 80 of those were in local government education. The only sector posting notable job loss in May was manufacturing, down by 30. Over the year, despite the recession that has left few sectors untouched, the county added jobs in a couple industries. Those adding jobs included educational and health services (+150), federal government (+50), and professional and business services (+40). Sectors showing the largest employment declines over the past year included manufacturing (-1,000), construction (-940), retail trade (-720), accommodation and food services (-190), and local government education (-190). Josephine County Employment Josephine County payroll employment rose by 210 jobs in May, mostly due to seasonal hiring in leisure and hospitality.

Jackson RawMay 2009 13.7 14.2Month ago 13.8 13.8Year Ago 6.9 7.3

Josephine RawMay 2009 14.9 15.8Month ago 15.2 15.4Year Ago 7.3 8.1

Oregon RawMay 2009 12.1Month Ago 11.9Year Ago 5.3

United States RawMay 2009 9.1Month Ago 8.6Year Ago 5.2

May 09 May 08Jackson 44 46Josephine 14 19

May 08 to May 09 -1.3%2008 Annual Average 3.3%

Jan to June 08* 3.9%

2008 Annual Average 3.3%

Economic IndicatorsUnemployment Rates

Residential Building Permits

Consumer Price Index

Seasonally Adjusted

9.48.9

Seasonally Adjusted

Note: seasonally adjusted rates for areas other than the United States and Oregon are not official Bureau of Labor Statistics series

United States

Portland-Salem, OR-WA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau

Yearly Change

* percent change from the same 6-month period in previous year

Seasonally Adjusted

12.411.8

All Urban Consumers

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis Rogue Valley Labor Trends • July 2009 2

Over the year, the county has lost 1,350 payroll jobs. The county’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose slightly from 15.4 percent in April to 15.8 percent in May. In May, leisure and hospitality employment rose by 170. Other sectors hiring modestly include transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+30) and other services (+30). A few sectors posted slight declines including retail trade (-20) and ambulatory health care services (-20). Over the month, employment was little changed in most of Josephine County’s industries. Over the year, the deep recession that has been reverberating across the globe has been particularly acute in many Oregon counties, and Josephine County is no exception. Over the year, job losses were widespread across most industries and rather deep in a few sectors. The largest job losses were felt in manufacturing (-550), leisure and hospitality (-180), construction (-170), and retail trade (-120). Jobs were shed over the year in almost all of Josephine County’s published industry sectors, including mining and logging (-60), wholesale trade (-50), health care and social assistance (-60), and government (-30). Nursing and residential care facilities (+40) and the federal government (+20) are the only sectors showing any over-the-year increase in Josephine County. Local Business Briefs Material gathered from published, nonconfidential sources. CrossRoads School, an alternative school in Medford that offered high school diploma equivalency programs to pregnant and parenting teens, will close due to declining enrollment and budget deficits. Ashland Daily Tidings, 5-30-09 Even as it celebrates 40 years of broadcasting in Southern Oregon, Jefferson Public Radio has run into financial static. It counts on up to $750,000 annually in underwriting donations from local businesses and expects that could drop to $500,000 or $600,000 in the coming fiscal year. Since 2004, JPR, which has a current operating budget of $2.8 million, has cut its full-time staff from 18 to 10. That occurred even as the number of listeners reached an estimated record high of 100,000 and a recent spring fund-raising drive exceeded goals. Medford Mail Tribune.com, 6-14-09 About 60 employees of Hach Company’s Grants Pass plant that makes water quality testing equipment will lose their jobs or be transferred to the company’s Loveland Colo. facility. Employees have been given notice they will lose their jobs in phases beginning Aug. 3. Those losing jobs include engineers, service technicians, a quality manager, a senior planner as well as employees in purchasing, manufacturing, shipping and receiving. KDRV.com, 6-15-09

Rogue Valley Labor Trends is published by the Workforce and Economic Research Division of the Oregon Employment Department. Rogue Valley Labor Trends also can be found on the Publications page at www.QualityInfo.org. Material contained in this publication is in the public domain and may be reproduced without permission. Please credit Rogue Valley Labor Trends, Oregon Employment Department.

Laurie Warner, Director Graham Slater, Administrator for Workforce and Economic Research Guy Tauer, Regional Economist Ainoura Oussenbec, Workforce Analyst Medford (541) 776-6060 x233 Gail Gasso, Field Office Manager Medford (541) 776-6060 Grants Pass (541) 244-3215 White City (541) 864-8700

Please direct address changes to: Oregon Employment Department Workforce and Economic Research 875 Union St NE Salem OR 97311 Phone (503) 947-1204 TDD (503) 947-1391

e-mail lmipubs.emp@state.or.us The Oregon Employment Department is an equal opportunity employer. Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities.

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 3 Rogue Valley Trends • July 2009

Kelton’s Steak and Seafood is a new restaurant that recently opened at McAndrews Marketplace in Medford. Medford Mail Tribune, 6-18-09 Vector Marketing has opened a sales office in Medford. The location will be used for recruitment and training of sales representatives who market Vector’s product, Cutco Cutlery. Medford Mail Tribune, 6-18-09 First Call Resolution, which serves 170 clients with more than 300 employees in Roseburg, plans to lease either the top floor or all of a 28,000-square-foot office building in Grants Pass. The company plans to hire between 40 and 50 employees by October, then open the center this fall after they are trained. They hope to expand that number to about 100 employees within a year. Grants Pass Daily Courier, 6-24-09 Aquarius Books & Gifts recently opened in Grants Pass. They offer a full line of books, but specialize in body, mind, and spirit categories. Gift items run the gamut from Grants Pass T-shirts to incense, candles and aromatherapy items. Grants Pass Daily Courier, 6-20-09 National Employment The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percentage points. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000 in May to 132.2 million. The decline was about half of the average monthly job loss for the prior six months (-643,000). Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.0 million. In May, job losses continued to be widespread across major industry sectors. Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while the rate of decline moderated in several industries, including construction, professional and business services, and retail trade. Manufacturing employment fell by 156,000 in May. Job losses occurred in most component industries. Three durable goods industries – motor vehicles and parts (-30,000), machinery (-26,000), and fabricated metal products (-19,000) – accounted for about half of the overall decline in factory employment. Since its most recent peak in February 2000, employment in motor vehicles and parts has fallen by about 50 percent. Mining shed 11,000 jobs in May, about the same number as in April. Employment in construction decreased by 59,000 in May compared with an average monthly job loss of 117,000 for the previous six months. In May, employment fell in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-30,000) and in residential construction of buildings (-11,000). Job losses in professional and business services moderated in May, with the industry shedding 51,000 jobs. This compares with an average loss of 136,000 jobs per month in the prior six months. The temporary help services industry, which had been dropping an average of 73,000 jobs per month over this period, saw little employment change in May (-7,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality was flat over the month. The industry had lost an average of 39,000 jobs per month during the prior six months.

Retail trade employment was down 18,000 in May; job cutbacks in retail trade have moderated markedly in the past two months. Employment in wholesale trade fell by 22,000 over the month, with over half of the decrease (-14,000) among durable goods wholesalers. Financial activities employment continued to decrease in May (-30,000). Securities lost 10,000 jobs and real estate lost 9,000. Employment in credit intermediation continued to trend down, although the May job loss was well below the average job loss for the prior six months. Employment in information decreased by 24,000 in May. Health care employment increased by 24,000 in May, about in line with its average monthly job growth so far in 2009. Employment in government changed little in May. The change in total nonfarm employment for March was revised from -699,000 to -652,000, and the change for April was revised from -539,000 to -504,000. Oregon Employment Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent in May compared with 11.8 percent (as revised) in April. The 12.4 percent reading was the highest on record since the current series began in 1976, topping the previous high mark of 12.1 percent set in November 1982. In May, 240,615 Oregonians were unemployed. In May 2008, 103,441 Oregonians were unemployed. While the May unemployment rate is at a historically high level, the increase in Oregon’s unemployment rate has moderated over the last two months. Between March and May, the rate rose from 11.9 percent to 12.4 percent. This is an increase of 0.5 percentage point over a two-month period. This moderation in the rise of the unemployment rate followed a trend of very rapid monthly increases between October 2008 (when the rate was 7.2%) and March 2009. During this five-month period, the rate rose by an average of nearly a full percentage point per month. In May, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined by 100 jobs, following a drop of 8,100 (as revised) in April. The May employment figures were by far the smallest job loss of any month over the past 10 months. In May, most of the major industries followed their normal seasonal patterns. This was in contrast with the prior eight months, when many industries cut employment sharply below normal seasonal expectations. In May, all of the major industries except two saw their employment change by within 600 jobs of their normal seasonal movement. Manufacturing was one exception, where employment continued to fall below normal seasonal patterns. It cut 1,300 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. Leisure and hospitality was the other exception, as it grew by 1,600 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. 2009 Oregon and Regional Occupational Wage Data Now Available What are the average wages for auto mechanics? What are beginning wages for accounting clerks? What are the going wages for experienced cooks? Tables with these occupational wages are

available for the state and each region of Oregon. Wage information for 2009 is available at www.QualityInfo.org. Click on the “publications” tab. To order copies of the statewide 2009 Oregon Wage Information publication, contact lmipubs.emp@state.or.us, or call (503) 947-1204. For questions about statewide wage information, contact Dwayne Stevenson at Dwayne.Stevenson@state.or.us, (503) 947-1261. For Region 8, occupational wages are published for 348 occupational titles. Data for Region 8 was collected from 1,734 employers to produce these occupational wage estimates. For some high-paying occupations, like physicians and surgeons, the Employment Department doesn’t publish wage data, due to limitations regarding collection of the data. The occupations published are limited to those in the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). The SOC is used in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Occupational Employment Survey, which is used to estimate wage rates that employers are paying their Oregon workers. Sometimes an occupation has no employment or reported wages in a given region. Other times the wage data reported in the survey are insufficient to calculate reliable wages. Wages for an occupation are not published if doing so would compromise the confidentiality of an employer’s response in the survey. The wage data include both public and private employers across all industries, except private natural resources employment (agriculture, forestry, and fishing). The annual mean wage is calculated by multiplying the mean hourly wage by 2,080, the yearly equivalent of a 40-hour week. One thing to consider when looking at the annual mean wage for occupations is that many jobs do not provide full-time, year-round work. Graph 1 shows some higher-paying jobs in Region 8. Graph 2 shows occupations that have lower mean annual wages in Region 8; many of these occupations tend to be part-time or seasonal jobs, so it’s likely that actual annual wages fall short of these published annual pay figures. For job seekers, to determine the wage level that is likely to be the most appropriate for you, first evaluate your experience and education levels. Are they low or high? Do you have a lot of experience in the occupation or are you new to it? If you are new to the occupation and meet its minimal

Region 8 High-Paying Occupations 2009

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000

Physician Assistants

Human Resources Managers, AllOther

Supervisors and Managers of FireFighting and Prevention Workers

Elementary and Secondary SchoolAdministrators

Financial Managers

Medical and Health ServicesManagers

Electronics Engineers, ExceptComputer

General and Operations Managers

Engineering Managers

Pharmacists

Mean Annual Average Wage 2009

Graph 1

Region 8 Lower-Paying Occupations 2009

$18,800 $19,000 $19,200 $19,400 $19,600 $19,800 $20,000 $20,200 $20,400

Amusement and Recreation Attendants

Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks

Dishwashers

Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food

Hosts and Hostesses in Restaurants, Lounges, and Coffee Shops

Personal Care and Service Workers, All Other

Food Servers, Nonrestaurant

Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers

Cooks, Fast Food

Farmworkers, Farm and Ranch Animals

Mean Annual Average Wage

Graph 2

education and experience requirements, the wage that may be most appropriate for you is in the 10th percentile range. This generally is considered a level earned by those just starting in an occupation. If you have worked in an occupation for a while and feel you are very experienced in it, then you may consider the median, 75th or 90th percentile to be a level that would be appropriate for your experience and education. Employers looking to hire new employees or analyze wages paid to current employees must look at the entire range of wages published. If an employer wants to hire a worker but is unsure what wage to offer, the employer must consider the duties of the position and the education and work experience required for the job. If the job is an entry-level position, the employer may want to consider offering a wage in the 10th or 25th percentile range. If, on the other hand, an employer is looking to hire someone with many years of experience, the more appropriate wage may be near the 90th percentile.

MEDFORD-ASHLAND MSA (JACKSON COUNTY)

May Apr May Apr MayLabor Force Status 2009 2009 2008 2009 2008

Civilian Labor Force 104,682 104,566 101,056 116 3,626 Unemployed 14,328 14,385 6,923 -57 7,405 Unemployment Rate 13.7% 13.8% 6.9% XX XX Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate 14.2% 13.8% 7.3% Employed 90,354 90,181 94,133 173 -3,779

Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentMay Apr May Apr May

2009 2009 2008 2009 2008

Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment 78,570 78,040 81,960 530 -3,390

Total private 66,140 65,810 69,210 330 -3,070 Mining and logging 560 530 630 30 -70 Construction 3,770 3,680 4,710 90 -940 Manufacturing 6,390 6,420 7,390 -30 -1,000 Trade, transportation, and utilities 17,320 17,330 18,300 -10 -980 Wholesale trade 2,400 2,390 2,510 10 -110 Retail trade 12,240 12,250 12,960 -10 -720 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 2,680 2,690 2,830 -10 -150 Information 1,550 1,550 1,600 0 -50 Financial activities 4,260 4,240 4,310 20 -50 Professional and business services 7,630 7,560 7,590 70 40 Educational and health services 12,470 12,470 12,320 0 150 Health care and social assistance 11,740 11,730 11,630 10 110 Health care 10,690 10,600 10,550 90 140 Leisure and hospitality 9,470 9,290 9,620 180 -150 Accomodation and food services 7,710 7,430 7,900 280 -190 Other services 2,720 2,740 2,740 -20 -20 Government 12,430 12,230 12,750 200 -320 Federal government 1,790 1,770 1,740 20 50 State government 2,840 2,840 2,980 0 -140 State education 1,490 1,490 1,540 0 -50 Local government 7,800 7,620 8,030 180 -230 Local education 4,930 4,850 5,120 80 -190

Labor/Management Disputants 0 0 0 0 0The most recent month is preliminary, the prior month is revised. Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

-Change from-

CURRENT LABOR FORCE AND INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT JOSEPHINE COUNTY

May Apr. May Apr. MayLabor Force Status 2009 2009 2008 2009 2008

Civilian Labor Force 36,282 36,310 34,980 -28 1,302 Unemployed 5,415 5,509 2,555 -94 2,860 Unemployment rate 14.9% 15.2% 7.3% XX XX Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate 15.8% 15.4% 8.1% Employed 30,867 30,801 32,425 66 -1,558

May Apr. May Apr. MayNonfarm Payroll Employment 2009 2009 2008 2009 2008

Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment 24,190 23,980 25,540 210 -1,350

Total private 20,290 20,080 21,610 210 -1,320 Mining and logging 260 270 320 -10 -60 Construction 1,030 1,020 1,200 10 -170 Manufacturing 2,680 2,680 3,230 0 -550 Wood product manufacturing 430 430 580 0 -150 Trade, transportation, and utilities 5,160 5,150 5,360 10 -200 Wholesale trade 1,020 1,020 1,070 0 -50 Retail trade 3,670 3,690 3,790 -20 -120 Food and beverage stores 910 900 900 10 10 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 470 440 500 30 -30 Information 320 320 340 0 -20 Financial activities 1,440 1,430 1,470 10 -30 Professional and business services 1,550 1,560 1,580 -10 -30 Educational and health services 4,280 4,280 4,350 0 -70 Educational services 180 180 190 0 -10 Health care and social assistance 4,100 4,100 4,160 0 -60 Ambulatory health care services 1,470 1,490 1,480 -20 -10 Nursing and residential care facilities 1,230 1,230 1,190 0 40 Leisure and hospitality 2,640 2,470 2,820 170 -180 Other services 930 900 940 30 -10 Government 3,900 3,900 3,930 0 -30 Federal government 340 330 320 10 20 State government 790 790 810 0 -20 Local government 2,770 2,780 2,800 -10 -30 Local education 1,940 1,940 1,990 0 -50

-Change from-

July 2009 Local News In the Salem Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) the seasonally adjusted jobless rate increased in May to 12.4 percent from April’s revised rate of 11.8 percent. The Salem MSA’s unemployment rate matched the statewide seasonally adjusted rate in May. The unemployment rate for the Salem MSA in May was 6.7 percentage points higher than the rate 12 months earlier in May 2008. In the Salem MSA, nonfarm employment has declined 7,900 over the past 12 months. Labor Force Summary There were an estimated 22,636 Marion and Polk County residents unemployed in a civilian labor force of 196,180 for

Seasonally Salem MSA Raw Adjusted May 2009 11.5% 12.4% Apr. 2009 11.6% 11.8% Oregon May 2009 12.1% 12.4% Apr. 2009 11.9% 11.8% United States May 2009 9.1% 9.4% Apr. 2009 8.6% 8.9% Nonfarm Payroll Employment

(Preliminary Estimates)

Annual Salem Metro Employment change Total Employment 145,400 -7,900 Manufacturing 10,900 -2,600 Construction 7,400 -1,900 Trade, Trans., & Utl. 24,300 -1,200 Financial Act. 7,300 -300 Prof. & Bus Svcs. 11,600 -1,500 Educ. & Health Svcs. 20,500 200 Leisure & Hosp. 12,200 -800 Other Private 7,700 -600 Government 43,500 800

Consumer Price Index (CPI) United States (May 2009) 213.9 Yearly % Change -1.3% Portland/Salem OR-WA MSA 215.4 Annual Average 2008 +3.3%

Salem MSA: Employment Change, May 2009

-3,000 -2,500 -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000

Manufacturing

Construction

Educational and Health Services

Other Private

Government

past month

past year

2 Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis Salem Metro Trends • July 2009

the month, and there were 173,544 residents employed including payroll employees, self-employed, farm workers, and residents commuting outside of the counties for work. Overall, there were 12,456 more people unemployed in the Salem MSA than in May 2008. Nonfarm Payroll Employment In the Salem MSA, May total nonfarm employment was 145,400, a loss of 7,900 jobs since May 2008. Private nonfarm employment lost 8,700 over the past 12 months, while public-sector employment grew 800 over that period. Educational and health services gained 200 jobs over the past 12 months. From April to May, the Salem MSA’s total nonfarm employment increased 700 jobs; the private sector added 700 jobs during the month while government employment was unchanged from its April level. May’s employment growth was smaller than is typical for the Salem MSA which normally adds about 1,200 jobs between April and May. Seasonally adjusted employment decreased 500 between April and May. The construction sector added 100 jobs in May. Over the past 12 months construction employment dropped 1,900. Manufacturing employment was flat in May. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 200 in May. Retail trade added 100 jobs in May, but the sector declined 900 jobs over the past 12 months. In the public sector, federal government shed 100 jobs in May and local government added 100 jobs. State government was unchanged in May. Outlook The Salem MSA economy added some seasonal employment in May, but not as many jobs as are typically added this time of year. Construction, manufacturing, and professional and business services have been the hardest hit sectors in the Salem MSA during the recession. As the national recession deepens, job losses in Salem have spread to other sectors as well. It is likely that high unemployment rates will persist for the remainder of 2009. These preliminary estimates will be revised as new data from businesses becomes available.

Nonfarm payroll employment statistics are by place of work and estimate how many jobs have been added or lost in an area. They measure an area’s economic health and are based on a survey of employers. Nonfarm payroll employment shows how many people were employed in a given area, on average, during the month.

Salem Metro Labor Trends is published by the Workforce and Economic Research Division of the Oregon Employment Department. Salem Metro Labor Trends also can be found on the Publications page at www.QualityInfo.org. Material contained in this publication is in the public domain and may be reproduced without permission. Please credit Salem Metro Labor Trends, Oregon Employment Department.

Laurie Warner, Director Graham Slater, Administrator for Workforce and Economic Research Patrick O’Connor, Regional Economist Pam Ferrara, Workforce Analyst Salem (503) 378-4801 x223 Adalberto Rubio, Field Office Manager Salem (503) 378-8080 Dallas (503) 831-1950 Woodburn (503) 982-2817

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 3 Salem Metro Trends • July 2009

Yamhill County Jobless Rates and Employment In Yamhill County, the seasonally adjusted jobless rate increased to 13.7 percent in May from April’s revised rate of 13.3 percent. Yamhill County’s unemployment rate was higher than the statewide seasonally adjusted rate, which was 12.4 percent in May. Yamhill County’s unemployment rate of 13.7 percent in May was significantly higher than the rate 12 months earlier when the county’s rate was 5.7 percent. Statewide, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.7 percentage points higher than its rate of 5.7 percent in May 2008. In Yamhill County, nonfarm employment declined 2,040 (-6.4%) over the past 12 months. Labor Force Summary There were an estimated 6,093 Yamhill County residents unemployed in a civilian labor force of 48,886 for the month, and there were 42,793 residents employed including payroll employees, self-employed, farm workers, and residents commuting outside of the county for work. Overall, there were 3,633 more people unemployed in Yamhill County than in May 2008. The number of unemployed in the county has more than doubled in the past 12 months. Since May 2008, Yamhill County’s civilian labor force has added 1,455 people or 3.1 percent. Nonfarm Payroll Employment In Yamhill County, May total nonfarm employment was 29,860, losing 2,040 jobs since May 2008. Private nonfarm employment declined 1,870 since May 2008, while public-sector employment shed 170 over that period. Manufacturing employment has lost 900 jobs over the past 12 months. The county’s construction sector has shown large employment losses over the past year. Construction employment has declined 520, or 26 percent, since May 2008. Educational and health services gained 580 jobs since May 2008. From April to May, Yamhill County’s total nonfarm employment decreased 330 jobs; the private sector shed 430 jobs while government added 100 jobs. May’s job loss was more than is typical for Yamhill County which normally loses about 70 jobs between April and May. Seasonally adjusted employment decreased 260 between April and May. Outlook Yamhill County’s economy has slowed significantly over the past year. The county’s employment decreased more than normal in May. Employment over the past 12 months has declined 6.4 percent.

Yamhill County: Employment Change, May 2009

-1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600

Manufacturing

Construction

Educational and Health Services

Other Private

Government

past month

past year

Construction, manufacturing, and professional and business services have all declined significantly over the past year. Employment losses are now being seen in other sectors like trade, transportation, and utilities. High unemployment rates are likely to persist for the remainder of 2009. These preliminary estimates will be revised as new data from businesses becomes available. News From Around the Region Material gathered from published, nonconfidential sources. MaPS Credit Union opened a branch in Silverton. Philips Products, a maker of doors and windows, will close its Stayton plant, putting 125 people out of work. Bella’s Italian Grill opened in Stayton. It offers pizza, calzones, lasagna, fettuccini, and all-you-can-eat breadsticks. The original Willamette Noodle Company on Broadway Street Northeast in Salem will close on June 12. The owners plan to reopen it with a new restaurant format in the fall. All Around Cakes will open in Stayton. Real Estate Solutions of Oregon, a residential real estate brokerage, opened in Salem. Chemeketa Community College will close its Santiam Center in Sublimity. Mennita, a gift shop, opened in Silverton. It offers jewelry, floral arrangements, soaps, candles, and home décor – most of which is handcrafted by local and regional artists. The 20-room Inn at Red Hills opened in Dundee. Decca Hardwood, a flooring company, will open a showroom in Newberg. Oregon Employment Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent in May compared with 11.8 percent (as revised) in April. The 12.4 percent reading was the highest on record since the current series began in 1976, topping the previous high mark of 12.1 percent set in November 1982. In May, 240,615 Oregonians were unemployed. In May 2008, 103,441 Oregonians were unemployed. While the May unemployment rate is at a historically high level, the increase in Oregon’s unemployment rate has moderated over the last two months. Between March and May, the rate rose from 11.9 percent to 12.4 percent. This is an increase of 0.5 percentage point over a two-month period. This moderation in the rise of the unemployment rate followed a trend of very

rapid monthly increases between October 2008 (when the rate was 7.2%) and March 2009. During this five-month period, the rate rose by an average of nearly a full percentage point per month. In May, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined by 100 jobs, following a drop of 8,100 (as revised) in April. The May employment figures were by far the smallest job loss of any month over the past 10 months. In May, most of the major industries followed their normal seasonal patterns. This was in contrast with the prior eight months, when many industries cut employment sharply below normal seasonal expectations. In May, all of the major industries except two saw their employment change by within 600 jobs of their normal seasonal movement. Manufacturing was one exception, where employment continued to fall below normal seasonal patterns. It cut 1,300 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. Leisure and hospitality was the other exception, as it grew by 1,600 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. National Employment The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percentage points. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000 in May to 132.2 million. The decline was about half of the average monthly job loss for the prior six months (-643,000). Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.0 million. In May, job losses continued to be widespread across major industry sectors. Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while the rate of decline moderated in several industries, including construction, professional and business services, and retail trade. Manufacturing employment fell by 156,000 in May. Job losses occurred in most component industries. Three durable goods industries – motor vehicles and parts (-30,000), machinery (-26,000), and fabricated metal products (-19,000) – accounted for about half of the overall decline in factory employment. Since its most recent peak in February 2000, employment in motor vehicles and parts has fallen by about 50 percent. Mining shed 11,000 jobs in May, about the same number as in April.

Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

Oregon

Salem MSA

Employment in construction decreased by 59,000 in May compared with an average monthly job loss of 117,000 for the previous six months. In May, employment fell in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-30,000) and in residential construction of buildings (-11,000). Job losses in professional and business services moderated in May, with the industry shedding 51,000 jobs. This compares with an average loss of 136,000 jobs per month in the prior six months. The temporary help services industry, which had been dropping an average of 73,000 jobs per month over this period, saw little employment change in May (-7,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality was flat over the month. The industry had lost an average of 39,000 jobs per month during the prior six months. Retail trade employment was down 18,000 in May; job cutbacks in retail trade have moderated markedly in the past two months. Employment in wholesale trade fell by 22,000 over the month, with over half of the decrease (-14,000) among durable goods wholesalers. Financial activities employment continued to decrease in May (-30,000). Securities lost 10,000 jobs and real estate lost 9,000. Employment in credit intermediation continued to trend down, although the May job loss was well below the average job loss for the prior six months. Employment in information decreased by 24,000 in May. Health care employment increased by 24,000 in May, about in line with its average monthly job growth so far in 2009. Employment in government changed little in May. The change in total nonfarm employment for March was revised from -699,000 to -652,000, and the change for April was revised from -539,000 to -504,000. Oregon’s Small Businesses Charles Johnson, Economist, Charlie.B.Johnson@state.or.us, (503) 947-1274 It is often said that small businesses are the primary driver of America’s economy – they bring innovation, progress, and employment. In fact, the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) claims that 99.7 percent of all U.S. firms are small businesses, and that these firms have created between 60 and 80 percent of all new jobs over the past ten years. If that’s the case, then monitoring the health and employment levels of small businesses in Oregon may provide interesting insights into the future of Oregon’s economy. How Small is Small? Unfortunately there is no widely used definition of a small business. The SBA generally defines a small business as any firm employing fewer than 500 employees, although the standard varies depending on what industry the firm is in. In Oregon’s case, all but 265 firms employed fewer than 500 people in 2008. This definition would make any analysis of “small business” trends of little value. However, classifying employers with fewer than 100 employees as small firms allows us to zoom in on some interesting business dynamics that occur throughout the state.

Large Firms Grow Faster and Pay More In the first quarter of 2008, Oregon had 91,548 firms that claimed to have at least one employee. These firms employed about 1.4 million workers. As seen in Graph 1, the vast majority of the state’s firms employ between one and nine people. However, firms that employ 100 people or more account for nearly half of all private employment. These larger firms also account for the majority of the state’s private payrolls, indicating that working at a larger firm may have some economic benefits. The average Oregon firm employed 16 people in the first quarter of 2008, up from 15 during the same period of 2003. Over the five-year period between the first quarters of 2003 and 2008, employment levels at Oregon’s largest firms (100+ employees) grew by 12 percent, compared to only 8-percent growth at firms which had between one and nine employees. The average annual payroll per employee was $39,808 during the first three months of last year for firms that reported at least one employee. Annualized average wages ranged from a high of $45,816 at firms which employed 100 or more people to a low of $30,956 among the smallest employers (1-9 employees). Between 2003 and 2008, payrolls expanded substantially, with the average pay per employee increasing 21 percent over the period. Interestingly, the growth rate of an average employee’s pay was almost identical among the smallest and largest firms (21 and 22%, respectively) but was slower at firms that employed between 10 and 99 people. Small Businesses Play a Crucial Role in Rural Oregon Smaller firms play a crucial role in the economies of rural counties throughout the state. In Oregon’s non-metro areas, the smallest firms (1-9 employees) account for 23 percent of payroll employment compared to just 14 percent for the metro areas. Large firms are concentrated in metro areas. In the state’s 11 metropolitan

Oregon Firms and Employment by Selected Size Class, First Quarter 2008

Employer Size Class

FirmsEmployment

Graph 1

Growth in Pay per Employee by Size Class Oregon Private Employers 2003q1 - 2008q1

Employer Size Class

Non-metro

Graph 2

counties, firms with 100 employees or more account for more than half of the reported payroll employment compared with just 35 percent in the state’s non-metro counties. Similarly, large firms in Oregon’s metro areas provide 59 percent of county payrolls compared to just 44 percent in the non-metro areas. Even more interesting – wages for employees at small firms – those with 99 or fewer workers – grew faster over the past five years in the non-metro counties than in the metro counties! Graph 2 shows wage growth rates for metro and non-metro counties by firm size class. Regardless of growth rates, however, small businesses tend to pay less than large firms, and this disparity is larger in non-metro than in metro areas. As any rural Oregonian can tell you, the best wages are found at the largest employers. In non-metro counties, employees of firms with nine or fewer employees earn just 60 percent of their counterparts’ wages at large firms (100+ employees), compared to 67 percent in the metro counties. More Small Businesses Likely in Coming Years During the robust economic expansion between 2003 and 2008, the average size of an Oregon business grew, wages and employment increased in every size class, and small business receipts were concentrated in industries related to the housing boom. It is likely that the current economic recession will stop most, if not all, of these trends. We don’t yet know if this recession is affecting large and small businesses differently. It is likely, however, that the average size of an Oregon business will shrink, as most new employers are typically in the smallest size class. It is also likely that both wages and employment will decrease due to the recession, in both small and large firms. It is difficult to anticipate which industry may drive small business incomes in the near future, but the economic landscape those firms face will no doubt be very different from that of the past half-decade. During a recession many people start their own business. Even though many small businesses have closed and more will continue to close in the near future, the number of small businesses should continue to grow in coming years. The new businesses may be smaller than those that closed and more capable of using the experience and knowledge of their small workforce to carve out their own niches. Regardless which industry helps renew economic growth in Oregon’s small businesses, it is likely that historical employment trends will continue into the future – small businesses will continue to be a driving force behind the creation of jobs in Oregon.

Salem MSA LABOR FORCE SUMMARY (by place of residence)

Civilian Labor Force 196,180 196,417 193,047 -237 3,133 Unemployment 22,636 22,842 10,180 -206 12,456 Percent of Labor Force 11.5% 11.6% 5.3% XX XX Total Employment 173,544 173,575 182,867 -31 -9,323Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate 12.4% 11.8% 5.7% XX XX

Salem MSA NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT(by place of work)

TOTAL NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT 145,400 144,700 153,300 700 -7,900SEASONALLY ADJUSTED NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT 145,200 145,700 153,100 -500 -7,900

TOTAL PRIVATE 101,900 101,200 110,600 700 -8,700 Mining and logging 1,100 1,100 1,300 0 -200 Construction 7,400 7,300 9,300 100 -1,900 Manufacturing Total 10,900 10,900 13,500 0 -2,600 Durable Goods 5,300 5,300 6,900 0 -1,600 Nondurable Goods 5,600 5,600 6,600 0 -1,000 Food Products Manufacturing 3,800 3,700 4,300 100 -500 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 24,300 24,200 25,500 100 -1,200 Wholesale Trade 3,700 3,700 4,000 0 -300 Retail Trade 16,800 16,700 17,700 100 -900 Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 3,800 3,800 3,800 0 0 Information 1,300 1,200 1,500 100 -200 Financial Activities 7,300 7,300 7,600 0 -300 Professional and Business Services 11,600 11,500 13,100 100 -1,500 Administrative and Support Services 5,700 5,600 6,900 100 -1,200 Educational and Health Services 20,500 20,500 20,300 0 200 Health Care and Social Assistance 17,600 17,600 17,100 0 500 Health Care 14,700 14,700 14,400 0 300 Leisure and Hospitality 12,200 12,000 13,000 200 -800 Accomodation and Food Services 10,800 10,700 11,400 100 -600 Other Services 5,300 5,200 5,500 100 -200 Government 43,500 43,500 42,700 0 800 Federal Government 1,600 1,700 1,500 -100 100 State Government 21,200 21,200 21,100 0 100 State Government Educational Services 2,300 2,300 2,200 0 100 Local Government 20,700 20,600 20,100 100 600 Tribal Government 1,900 1,900 1,900 0 0 Local Government Educational Services 10,900 10,900 10,300 0 600

-Change from-

Yamhill County LABOR FORCE SUMMARY (by place of residence)

May. Apr. May. Apr. May.Labor Force Status 2009 2009 2008 2009 2008

Civilian Labor Force 48,886 49,313 47,431 -427 1,455 Unemployment 6,093 6,273 2,460 -180 3,633 Percent of Labor Force 12.5% 12.7% 5.2% XX XX Total Employment 42,793 43,040 44,971 -247 -2,178Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate 13.7% 13.3% 5.7% xx XX

YAMHILL COUNTY NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT(by place of work)

Total nonfarm employment 29,860 30,190 31,900 -330 -2,040Seasonally Adjusted Total nonfarm employment 29,400 29,660 31,410 -260 -2,010

Total private 24,660 25,090 26,530 -430 -1,870 Mining and logging 170 170 220 0 -50 Construction 1,420 1,380 1,940 40 -520 Manufacturing 5,800 5,800 6,700 0 -900 Trade, transportation, and utilities 4,240 4,210 4,680 30 -440 Wholesale trade 520 520 620 0 -100 Retail trade 3,060 3,030 3,350 30 -290 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 490 500 610 -10 -120 Food and beverage stores 750 740 820 10 -70 General merchandise stores 750 730 680 20 70 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 660 660 710 0 -50 Information 190 190 220 0 -30 Financial activities 1,180 1,200 1,240 -20 -60 Professional and business services 1,320 1,350 1,680 -30 -360 Educational and health services 6,640 7,090 6,060 -450 580 Educational services 2,650 3,090 2,240 -440 410 Health care and social assistance 3,990 4,000 3,820 -10 170 Leisure and hospitality 2,670 2,670 2,750 0 -80 Other services 1,030 1,030 1,040 0 -10 Government 5,200 5,100 5,370 100 -170 Federal government 500 490 480 10 20 State government 400 400 420 0 -20 Local government 4,300 4,210 4,470 90 -170 Local education 2,780 2,730 2,930 50 -150 Local government, excluding educational ser 1,520 1,480 1,540 40 -20

Labor Disputes 0 0 0 0 0

The most recent month is preliminary, the prior month is revised.

---Change from---

July 2009

Coos County Coos County payroll employment rose by 250 jobs in May, boosted by seasonal hiring in leisure and hospitality and increases in local government education employment. The unemployment rate rose from 13.9 percent in April to 15.2 percent in May (seasonally adjusted). In May, local education employment rose by 180 for an over-the-year gain of 50 jobs. Another sector posting an employment increase was leisure and hospitality, up by 60 over the month. Slight gains occurred in manufacturing (+20) and federal government (+20). Employment fell slightly in retail trade (-30) as well as professional and business services (-40). Over the year, payroll employment fell by 720 jobs, with losses across many industries. The largest reductions occurred in professional and business services (-210), construction (-170), leisure and hospitality (-160), and manufacturing (-100). A few sectors bucked the overall downward trend and added jobs over the year including educational and health services (+60), federal government (+60), and local government education (+50). Curry County In Curry County, payroll employment rose by 30 jobs in May. Gains in accommodation and food services (+50) and construction (+20) were offset by slight declines in manufacturing, retail trade, financial activities, and government jobs. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose over the month and was estimated at 15.6 percent in May. Over the year, the deep recession that has been reverberating across the globe has been particularly acute in many Oregon counties, and Curry County is no exception. The county

Seasonally

Raw Adjusted Coos County May 2009 13.6% 15.2% Previous month 13.7% 13.9% Year ago 6.6% 7.3% Curry County May 2009 13.8% 15.6% Previous month 14.0% 13.9% Year ago 6.2% 7.0% Oregon May 2009 12.1% 12.4% Previous month 11.9% 11.8% Year ago 5.3% 5.7% United States May 2009 9.1% 9.4% Previous month 8.6% 8.9% Year ago 5.2% 5.5%

Consumer Price Index (CPI) 1982-1984 = 100

All Urban Consumers United States April 2008 213.856 May 2009 216.632 Percent change - 1.3% Portland-Salem OR-WA July-Dec 2007 210.5 July-Dec 2008 216.2 Percent change 2.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis South Coast Trends • July 2009 2

has lost an estimated 520 payroll jobs since May 2008. The largest job losses have occurred in construction (-140), manufacturing (-90), retail trade (-70), professional and business services (-50), and leisure and hospitality (-120). Health care (+20) and local government (+30) are the only published industry sectors showing over-the-year job gains in Curry County. Local Business News All material gleaned from published, nonconfidential sources. Four teachers and one librarian are being laid off from Southwestern Oregon Community College by July 1. All together, about 20 jobs, including those five, have been cut to allow the district to fit its budget. The World, 6-3-09 A marine interpretive center, live fish processing plant and scientific research facility are included in a proposed $10-million marine project that may be built in Port Orford using federal stimulus money. Curry Coastal Pilot, 5-30-09 A number of new businesses recently opened in Myrtle Point. The Wizard’s Garden is a new organic fruit and vegetable garden supply store. The Steel Penny Saloon, which features a dance floor and live music on weekend nights opened about two months ago. A new antiques and collectible store, Odd’s Ends, opened May 1. Lyndee’s Bug’s Kids is a nonprofit second-hand children’s store which opened March 1. They sell clothes, books, baby items and furniture. A bicycle shop and a woodworking business are expected to open in the near future. The World, 6-10-09 Ground was recently broken on Sea View Senior Living Community, a new senior living development in Harbor. The 110,000-square-foot building will offer a broad range of housing options and include dining rooms, beauty salon, laundry facilities plus social and activity area. An estimated 60 jobs with annual payroll of $1.2 million are expected to be generated when the facility is fully occupied. Curry Coastal Pilot, 6-10-09 Curry General Hospital Health Network may break ground on a new medical center in Brookings as early as September. The facility will feature a multi-specialty clinic, an imagining center, a laboratory, several procedure rooms and a new urgent care clinic or emergency room. The construction of the building is expected to provide at least 50 jobs. Eight new doctors will be added to the Brookings staff. In addition to the physicians, the medical center will create another 25 to 30 jobs in the first year. Curry Coastal Pilot, 6-20-09

South Coast Labor Trends is published by the Workforce and Economic Research Division of the Oregon Employment Department. South Coast Labor Trends also can be found on the Publications page at www.QualityInfo.org. Material contained in this publication is in the public domain and may be reproduced without permission. Please credit South Coast Labor Trends, Oregon Employment Department.

Laurie Warner, Director Graham Slater, Administrator for Workforce and Economic Research Guy Tauer, Regional Economist Rob Abbott, Workforce Analyst Coos Bay Area (541) 464-2348 Kathie Creasey, Field Office Manager Brookings (541) 469-9836 Coos Bay Area (541) 751-8502

Oregon Employment Department • Workforce Analysis 3 South Coast Trends • July 2009

National Employment The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percentage points. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 345,000 in May to 132.2 million. The decline was about half of the average monthly job loss for the prior six months (-643,000). Since the recession began in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 6.0 million. In May, job losses continued to be widespread across major industry sectors. Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while the rate of decline moderated in several industries, including construction, professional and business services, and retail trade. Manufacturing employment fell by 156,000 in May. Job losses occurred in most component industries. Three durable goods industries – motor vehicles and parts (-30,000), machinery (-26,000), and fabricated metal products (-19,000) – accounted for about half of the overall decline in factory employment. Since its most recent peak in February 2000, employment in motor vehicles and parts has fallen by about 50 percent. Mining shed 11,000 jobs in May, about the same number as in April. Employment in construction decreased by 59,000 in May compared with an average monthly job loss of 117,000 for the previous six months. In May, employment fell in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (-30,000) and in residential construction of buildings (-11,000). Job losses in professional and business services moderated in May, with the industry shedding 51,000 jobs. This compares with an average loss of 136,000 jobs per month in the prior six months. The temporary help services industry, which had been dropping an average of 73,000 jobs per month over this period, saw little employment change in May (-7,000). Employment in leisure and hospitality was flat over the month. The industry had lost an average of 39,000 jobs per month during the prior six months. Retail trade employment was down 18,000 in May; job cutbacks in retail trade have moderated markedly in the past two months. Employment in wholesale trade fell by 22,000 over the month, with over half of the decrease (-14,000) among durable goods wholesalers. Financial activities employment continued to decrease in May (-30,000). Securities lost 10,000 jobs and real estate lost 9,000. Employment in credit intermediation continued to trend down, although the May job loss was well below the average job loss for the prior six months. Employment in information decreased by 24,000 in May. Health care employment increased by 24,000 in May, about in line with its average monthly job growth so far in 2009. Employment in government changed little in May. The change in total nonfarm employment for March was revised from -699,000 to -652,000, and the change for April was revised from -539,000 to -504,000.

Oregon Employment Oregon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 12.4 percent in May compared with 11.8 percent (as revised) in April. The 12.4 percent reading was the highest on record since the current series began in 1976, topping the previous high mark of 12.1 percent set in November 1982. In May, 240,615 Oregonians were unemployed. In May 2008, 103,441 Oregonians were unemployed. While the May unemployment rate is at a historically high level, the increase in Oregon’s unemployment rate has moderated over the last two months. Between March and May, the rate rose from 11.9 percent to 12.4 percent. This is an increase of 0.5 percentage point over a two-month period. This moderation in the rise of the unemployment rate followed a trend of very rapid monthly increases between October 2008 (when the rate was 7.2%) and March 2009. During this five-month period, the rate rose by an average of nearly a full percentage point per month. In May, Oregon’s seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment declined by 100 jobs, following a drop of 8,100 (as revised) in April. The May employment figures were by far the smallest job loss of any month over the past 10 months. In May, most of the major industries followed their normal seasonal patterns. This was in contrast with the prior eight months, when many industries cut employment sharply below normal seasonal expectations. In May, all of the major industries except two saw their employment change by within 600 jobs of their normal seasonal movement. Manufacturing was one exception, where employment continued to fall below normal seasonal patterns. It cut 1,300 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. Leisure and hospitality was the other exception, as it grew by 1,600 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. 2009 Oregon and Regional Occupational Wage Data Now Available What are the average wages for auto mechanics? What are beginning wages for accounting clerks? What are the going wages for experienced cooks? Tables with these occupational wages are available for the state and each region of Oregon. Wage information for 2009 is available at www.QualityInfo.org. Click on the “publications” tab. To order copies of the statewide 2009 Oregon Wage Information publication, contact lmipubs.emp@state.or.us, or call (503) 947-1204. For questions about statewide wage information, contact Dwayne Stevenson at Dwayne.Stevenson@state.or.us, (503) 947-1261. For Region 7, occupational wages are published for 194 occupational titles. Data for Region 7 was collected from 461 employers to produce these occupational wage estimates. For some high-paying occupations, like physicians and surgeons, the Employment Department doesn’t publish wage data, due to limitations regarding collection of the data. The occupations published are limited to those in the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). The SOC is used in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Occupational Employment Survey, which is used to estimate wage rates that employers are paying their Oregon workers. Sometimes an occupation has no employment or reported wages in a given region. Other times the wage data reported in the survey are insufficient to calculate reliable

wages. Wages for an occupation are not published if doing so would compromise the confidentiality of an employer’s response in the survey. The wage data include both public and private employers across all industries, except private natural resources employment (agriculture, forestry, and fishing). The annual mean wage is calculated by multiplying the mean hourly wage by 2,080, the yearly equivalent of a 40-hour week. One thing to consider when looking at the annual mean wage for occupations is that many jobs do not provide full-time, year-round work. Graph 1 shows higher paying jobs in Region 7. Graph 2 shows occupations that have lower mean annual wages in Region 7; many of these occupations tend to be part-time or seasonal jobs, so it’s likely that actual annual wages fall short of these published annual pay figures. For job seekers, to determine the wage level that is likely to be the most appropriate for you, first evaluate your experience and education levels. Are they low or high? Do you have a lot of experience in the occupation or are you new to it? If you are new to the occupation and meet its minimal education and experience requirements, the wage that may be most appropriate for you is in the 10th percentile range. This generally is considered a level earned by those just starting in an occupation. If you have worked in an occupation for a while and feel you are very experienced in it, then you may consider the median, 75th or 90th percentile to be a level that would be appropriate for your experience and education. Employers looking to hire new employees or analyze wages paid to current employees must look at the entire range of wages published. If an employer wants to hire a worker but is unsure what wage to offer, the employer must consider the duties of the position and the education and work experience required for the job. If the job is an entry-level position, the employer may want to consider offering a wage in the 10th or 25th percentile range. If, on the other hand, an employer is looking to hire someone with many years of experience, the more appropriate wage may be near the 90th percentile.

Region 7 High-Paying Occupations 2009

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000

Construction Managers

Registered Nurses

Dental Hygienists

Civil Engineers

Audiologists

Financial Managers

Elementary and Secondary School Administrators2

General and Operations Managers

Physical Therapists

Pharmacists

Median Annual Average Wage 2009 Graph 1

Region 7 Lower-Paying Occupations 2009

$18,400 $18,600 $18,800 $19,000 $19,200 $19,400 $19,600 $19,800 $20,000

Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers

Hosts and Hostesses in Restaurants, Lounges, and Coffee Shops

Dishwashers

Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food

Dining Room and Cafeteria Attendants and Bartender Helpers

Cooks, Fast Food

Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment

Child Care Workers

Packers and Packagers, Hand

Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education

Mean Annual Average Wage

Graph 2

COOS COUNTY CURRENT LABOR FORCE AND INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

Labor Force Status

Civilian Labor Force 29,247 29,279 28,020 -32 1,227 Unemployed 3,987 4,015 1,846 -28 2,141 Unemployment rate 13.6% 13.7% 6.6% XX XX Seaonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate 15.2% 13.9% 7.3% Employed 25,260 25,264 26,174 -4 -914

Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentMay Apr. May Apr. May

2009 2009 2008 2009 2008

Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment 22,130 21,880 22,850 250 -720

Total private 15,730 15,680 16,510 50 -780 Mining and logging 480 470 530 10 -50 Construction 850 850 1,020 0 -170 Manufacturing 1,470 1,450 1,570 20 -100 Wood product manufacturing 700 700 770 0 -70 Food manufacturing 250 240 270 10 -20 Trade, transportation, and utilities 4,310 4,330 4,390 -20 -80 Wholesale trade 350 340 370 10 -20 Retail trade 3,020 3,050 3,060 -30 -40 Food and beverage stores 760 760 760 0 0 General merchandise stores 780 790 780 -10 0 Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 940 940 960 0 -20 Information 240 240 270 0 -30 Financial activities 890 880 920 10 -30 Professional and business services 2,060 2,100 2,270 -40 -210 Educational and health services 2,430 2,420 2,370 10 60 Leisure and hospitality 2,410 2,350 2,570 60 -160 Other services 590 590 600 0 -10 Government 6,400 6,200 6,340 200 60 Federal government 400 380 340 20 60 State government 980 970 1,000 10 -20 Local government 5,020 4,850 5,000 170 20 Indian tribal 710 700 760 10 -50 Local education 2,020 1,840 1,970 180 50

-Change from-

CURRY COUNTY CURRENT LABOR FORCE AND INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT

May Apr. May Apr. MayLabor Force Status 2009 2009 2008 2009 2008

Civilian Labor Force 9,779 9,758 9,588 21 191 Unemployed 1,351 1,366 592 -15 759 Unemployment rate 13.8% 14.0% 6.2% XX XX Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate 15.6% 13.9% 7.0% Employed 8,428 8,392 8,996 36 -568

May Apr. May Apr. MayNonfarm Payroll Employment 2009 2009 2008 2009 2008

Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment 6,500 6,470 7,020 30 -520

Total private 5,150 5,110 5,700 40 -550 Mining and logging 120 110 140 10 -20 Construction 420 400 560 20 -140 Manufacturing 550 560 640 -10 -90 Wood product manufacturing 390 390 460 0 -70 Trade, transportation, and utilities 1,170 1,190 1,280 -20 -110 Retail trade 960 970 1,030 -10 -70 Information 110 110 100 0 10 Financial activities 480 490 510 -10 -30 Professional and business services 440 450 490 -10 -50 Educational and health services 640 640 630 0 10 Health care 500 500 480 0 20 Leisure and hospitality 1,030 970 1,150 60 -120 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 60 50 60 10 0 Accomodation and food services 970 920 1,090 50 -120 Other services 190 190 200 0 -10 Government 1,350 1,360 1,320 -10 30 Federal government 100 110 90 -10 10 State government 200 190 210 10 -10 Local government 1,050 1,060 1,020 -10 30

-Change from-

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