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CLIMATE & ENERGY PAPER SERIES 2010
Tnfomng EonomE
Though gEEn nvETmEnTNEEdS, PRoGRESS, ANd PoLICIES
mhEL mEhLng
President, Ecologic Institute, Washington, DC
on BET
Senior Fellow, Ecologic Institute, Berlin
Domn mELLno, Fellow, Ecologic Institute, Washington, DC
mhEL PEY, Transatlantic Intern, Ecologic Institute, Berlin
KThn umPfEnBh, Fellow, Ecologic Institute, Berlin
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2010 Te German Marshall Fund of the United States. All rights reserved.
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from the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:
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ckwledeets
Te authors would like to thank Kate Carman and Tomas Opp for their contributions to the background research.
bt gmf
Te German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan American public policy and grant-making
institution dedicated to promoting greater cooperation and understanding between North America and Europe.
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:Needs, Progress, and Policies
Climate & Energy Paper Series
January 2010
M M, P, E I, W, DC*
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8/9/2019 Transforming Economies through Green Investment: Needs, Progress, and Policies
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
Needs, Progress, and Policies3
Changing the
trajectory of the
energy economy
to avoid the
worst impacts
of a warming
atmosphere will
require global
investments of
nearly $480
billion annually
in the near term
rising to just ove
$1.2 trillion per
year by 2026.
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Table ES-1. Approximate estimates of capital investment needs in abatement, by region and
sector (billions $ per year)
Billion $ per year
2011-2015 2026-2030
Sector N. America W. Europe China N. America W. Europe China
Transport 16 12 13 78 57 117
Buildings 40 32 33 51 37 77
Power 17 13 14 38 28 58
Source: Ecologic Institute estimate based on McKinsey 2009, pp. 42-43
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States4
B b 39 , 4
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The investment gap: Sustainable energy
investments by region
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A GDP
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k b
b b b
Both Europe and
North America
saw a slowdown
of clean energy
investment
in 2008 due
to reduced
availability of
project finance as
well as decreases
in tax incentives.
Table ES-2. Regional comparisons of GDP, CO2 emissions, and sustainable energy investment
GDP (2008) in billions of $CO2 emissions
(2007) in millions of tons
Sustainable energy investment
(2008) in billions of $
Region Actual % of world total Actual % of world total Actual % of world total
Europe 15,128 22% 3,926 14% 49.7 42%
N. America 15,568 22% 6,342 22% 30.1 25%
China 7,916 11% 6,071 21% 15.6 13%
Rest of world 30,656 44% 12,622 44% 23.5 20%
Total 69,268 100% 28,962 100% 119 100%
Note: GDP data are from IMF (2009) and are in billions of current dollars adjusted for purchasing power parities; CO2
emissions are from IEA 2009, pp. 44-46 and include emissions from fuel combustion only. Sustainable energy investment
totals are from UNEP/NEF 2009, Fig. 13, p. 19. Percentage figures do not total 100% due to rounding.
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
Needs, Progress, and Policies5
$180 billion in
global stimulus
funds for clean
energy will
temporarily narro
the investment
gap, but sustaine
private capital
flows are require
in the long
term to achieve
a low-carbon
future. Ultimatel
policymakers
must correct the
market failures
responsible for
climate change.
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Policy options for green transformation
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Figure ES-3. Opportunities for green transformation
Renewable Energy Promotion
Advanced Transmission Grids
Supply-Side Efciency Improvement
*Other sectors subject to carbon pricing: industrial emissions; via offsets: agriculture, forestry
Vehicle Efciency Standards
Research and Development
Sustainable Infrastructure and Planning
Carbon Pricing*
Building Codes and Standards
Information and Education
Demand-Side Energy Efciency
Electrical Power Transport Buildings
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States6
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Feed-in tariffs renewable portfolio
standards
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w-b
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
Needs, Progress, and Policies7
A Db 9, j- b
b C (C) b ,
w b w
b b (ON
, ) L bw C
(GHG) ww k
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b ,
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x, w w
Itrduct1
The right policies
and regulatory
frameworks can
successfully
stimulate private
investment andleverage new
sources of public
revenue. A range
of different
approaches,
combined in a
balanced policy
mix, can serve as
a powerful cataly
toward the clean
energy economyof the future.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States8
Total investment
needs are
expected to rise
from about $450
billion annually
in the short termto approximately
$1.2 trillion
annually 20 years
from now.
S ww b w-
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2.1
Estimating low-carbon investment needs
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Achevg the Trast t a Lw-Car
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
Needs, Progress, and Policies9
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x 5 6 b x (MK 9, 4)
F w
b MK C, bk
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8 b
3 E b
:
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, , w,
Figure 1. Global capital investment needs
in GHG abatement, by sector
Source: Figure based on data from McKinsey 2009, p.42. Investment needs shown are those above business
as usual that are required to reach the 2C target. The
category labeled Other includes agriculture, cement,
chemicals, forestry, iron and steel, petroleum and gas,
waste, and other industry. Figures are real 2005 ,
converted here into US$ using an exchange rate of 1.5
U.S. dollars per .
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400 Other
Power
Transport
Buildings
2026203020112015
140
78
72
186
248
222
450
297
U.S. $ billions per year
Figure 2. Total capital investment needs
in GHG abatement, by region
Source: Figure based on data from McKinsey 2009, p.
43. Investment needs shown are those above business
as usual that are required to reach the 2C target. Thecategory labeled Other includes all regions outside
North America, China and Western Europe (i.e., Africa;
India; Latin America; Middle East; OECD Pacific; Russia
and non-OECD Eastern Europe; rest of developing Asia;
as well as global air and sea transport). Original figures
are in real 2005 , converted here into U.S$ using an
exchange rate of 1.5 U.S. dollars per .
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400 Other
China
W. Europe
N. America
2026203020112015
206
86
81
104
537
317
153
210
U.S. $ billions per year
Three sectors
buildings, power,
and transport
are expected to
account for 80
percent of globainvestment
needs by 2030.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States10
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x
T w b
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x
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3 x
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(MK 9, 4)
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5, $ b
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Table 1. Approximate estimates of capital investment needs in abatement, by region and sector(billion $ per year)
Billion $ per year
2011-2015 2026-2030
Sector N. America W. Europe China N. America W. Europe China
Transport 16 12 13 78 57 117
Buildings 40 32 33 51 37 77
Power 17 13 14 38 28 58
3-Sector Total 73 57 60 167 122 252
Source: Ecologic Institute estimate based on McKinsey 2009, pp. 42-43
An identification
of sector-specific
investment targets
for regions and
countries will be
necessary formonitoring the
adequacy
of future
investment levels.
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
Needs, Progress, and Policies11
Early-stage
financing in basi
R&D must come
from the public
sector to the
extent that the
market potential
is too uncertain
to interest privat
sector funders.
2.2.1
The financing continuum
B - b-
b w
k
w
b ( F 3) E-
b RD ( )
b x
k
- I ,
w b k
-q w
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x w b k
k
)
A ,
b-q k w
2.2
Current levels of sustainable energy
investment: A gap analysis
I C, E, N A,
b
k b
w 89
Hw,
b
R b k b
b
k C, E, N
A4 I ,
N A b
x b w
b EU C
4 U, k b b b
Figure 3. The sustainable energy nancing continuum
Government
Venture Capital
Private Equity
Public Equity Markets
Mergers and Acquisitions
Credit (Debt) Markets
Carbon Finance
Process
Key:
Funding
Technology
Research
Technology
Development
Manufacturing
Scale-Up
Roll-Out
[Asset Finance]
Source: Figure reproduced from UNEP/NEF 2009, p. 9
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States12
2.2.2
Regional gap analysis
A S , C, E,
N A w
w x
wb
I ,
b b
, w b
j b U N
E P (UNEP) Nw E
F (NEF)
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x w
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w
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b T k
F 3
j
b
O ,
j, - b
w w
q b w
w T ,
, w
, w
O, j
b
, w b
wk
Table 2. Financial new investment in sustainable energy by region 2002-2008, billion $
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Middle East & Africa
South America
Asia & Oceania
North America
Europe
2008200720062005200420032002
Note: Does not include government stimulus spending in response to the 2008 financial crisis.
Source: UNEP/NEF, Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2009, Figure 14, p. 21
The vast majority
of investment
in sustainable
energy must come
from the private
sector, whichgovernment policy
can stimulate
with appropriate
incentives.
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
Needs, Progress, and Policies13
North America
and Europe
each contribute
22 percent of
global GDP,
but Europes
sustainable
energy
investment
accounts for
42 percent
of global
sustainable
energy
investment
compared to
only 25 percent
for North
America.
T b Tb 3 b
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bw w
MK
b b (BAU) w w-
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5 N
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$7 b $3 b Gb w
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8, $56 b w
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(UNEP/NEF, 9) Hw, w E N A
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, w- b
8
Table 3. Financial new investment in sustainable energy by region, 2008, billion $
Region New investment ($ billions) Percent of total
Europe 49.7 42
North America 30.1 25
China 15.6 13
Asia and Oceania (not including China) 8.6 7
South America 12.3 10
Middle East and Africa 2.6 2
Total 119 100
Note: Regional percentage figures do not total 100% due to rounding.
Source: UNEP/NEF, Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2009, p. 19
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States14
- w,
b- b ,
w
2.2.3
Green stimulus allocations
I b
8,
8 9 O
$83 b
b b
b
(UNEP, 9, 58) Tb 5
b w
T U S C
w b
(x $67 b),
w E x $6
b T UNEP/NEF
x
w b w:
w b
9, 4 , 3
4 w T j
b CO , b N
A b C D
b w
, b E
w N A,
w GDP 6
b O , C
b ,
w CO N A
GDP
T w k - T
- b -
j
b T w,
x 7 8 b
b- 3
-- Nw
q 9 w j w
w (UNEP/
NEF, 9, 4 6)
W
Table 4. Regional comparisons of GDP, CO2 emissions and sustainable energy investment
GDP (2008) in billions of $CO2 emissions
(2007) in millions of tons
Sustainable energy investment
(2008) in billions of $
Region Actual % of world total Actual % of world total Actual % of world total
Europe 15,128 22% 3,926 14% 49.7 42%
N. America 15,568 22% 6,342 22% 30.1 25%
China 7,916 11% 6,071 21% 15.6 13%
Rest of world 30,656 44% 12,662 44% 23.5 20%
Total 69,268 100% 28,962 100% 119 100%
Note: GDP data are from IMF (2009) and are in billions of current dollars adjusted for purchasing power parities; CO2
emissions are from IEA 2009, pp. 44-46 and include emissions from fuel combustion only. Sustainable energy investment
totals are from UNEP/NEF 2009, Fig. 13, p. 19. Percentage figures do not total 100% due to rounding.
The carbon
intensity of
Europes economy
is significantly
lower than that of
North Americas,with a GDP nearly
60 percent higher
for every ton of
carbon emitted.
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
Needs, Progress, and Policies15
b
w zb - b k, ,
b q
C
W-
w
T
w
wk
- ,
k, b
F, b w b
b - ,
b b
T, b
b q q
b
Tk ,
w b
Table 5. Green stimulus allocations to sustainable energy, billion $World region Country/region Green stimulus allocation (billion $)
Asia (86.6 billion $)
China 67.2
Japan 11.7
South Korea 7.7
India 0
North America (68.6 billion $)United States 67.8
Canada 0.8
Europe (25.8 billion $)
EU27 11.3
Germany 8.4
Italy 2.6
France 2.4
Spain 0.8
United Kingdom 0.3
South America Brazil 2.5
Total 183.4
Note: Stimulus allocations as of April 2009. Country/region totals do not add to 183.4 due to rounding.
Source: UNEP/NEF, Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2009, Figure 18, p. 24
Despite
substantial
increases in
sustainable
energy
investment in
recent years
as well as the
sizable one-time
boost through
fiscal stimulus
packages,
massive,
sustained
investments
in sustainable
energy are
still required
to avert a
catastrophic
climate change.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States16
Widespread
adoption of
transformational
technologies will
depend on the
availability of
significant capital
flows, which will
in turn require an
enabling policy
environment
to channel
investments into
the right kinds of
technology.
G b ,
- w w
b w
, j ,
j
w w
I x
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j, b
w k
(C ,
9, 6) A , w, w w
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k
3.1
The role of public and private investment
A w,
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) Mw, k
Pcy Opts fr
Gree Trasfrmat3
Bx 1. A portfolio of policies for green transformation
Available policies and measures to limit the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere include
regulations and standards, taxes and charges, tradable permits, voluntary agreements, informational
instruments, subsidies and incentives, and research and development (IPCC 2007b, p. 750). The shiftto a low-carbon energy economy will need to be supported by a balanced and coordinated strategy that
integrates a combination of these tools. In such a portfolio of approaches, the selection of individual
instruments will be typically guided by the following criteria:
Environmental effectiveness: How well does the policy meets its intended environmental objective? How
certain is its level of environmental impact?
Cost effectiveness: Can the policy achieve its objectives at a lower cost than other policies? Does it create
revenue streams that can be reinvested?
Distributional considerations: How does the policy impact consumers and producers? Can it be
considered fair and equitable?
Institutional feasibility: Is the policy instrument likely to be viewed as legitimate, gain political acceptance,be adopted and finally implemented? (IPCC 2007b, p. 751).
In the context of clean technology investment, the ability of policies to foster efficient levels of innovation
and diffusion may additionally depend on the speed at which measures can be decided and implemented,
the ability to trigger investment and multiplier effects, and the effect on public budgets and public debt
burden (Edenhofer et al. 2009, p. 18).
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
Needs, Progress, and Policies17
Innovative
instruments can
help finance
public spending
programs and
drive privateinvestment
to stimulate
activity in green
technology
markets while
suppliers drive
down their costs
w (E 9, 8)
I b wk
G
b, bj
b w
b w
R bw
k
, b
k w w
Q w
b , b-
b
;5 b
Bx w k
b
b x6
5 D -, w w Y ,
b , w x
6 I w- bw b wk ; , w, w b
Bx 2. Barriers to sustainable energy investment
Despite the widely acknowledged potential of sustainable energy technologies not only to reduce greenhouse
gases but also to frequently lower energy costs, generate employment and provide access to new and
competitive markets, actual deployment figures in many areas have lagged behind expectations. A number of
barriers to clean technology investment have been identified to explain this observation, including:
Behavioral barriers, such as the agency problems faced by property owners when deciding on efficiency
investments in buildings that will primarily benefit tenants, but not the owners themselves;
Knowledge externalities, locking investors into technologies they already have experience with
typically conventional, carbon-intensive technologiesand preventing capital flows into new and
uncertain technologies;
Institutional barriers, such as economic and political frameworks that provide investors with littlepredictability over the long term, and rather promote short-term decision making in line with electoral
cycles and quarterly earnings reporting;
Limited ability to appropriate returns on innovation, with high spillover rates and complexity in the clean
technology sector rendering classic patent protection less effective as a way to guarantee returns on
clean energy investments.
To help overcome these barriers and deploy capital at the scale required, investors need policy and price
signals that are long-term, clearly defined, and legally enshrined (Cameron et al. 2009, p. 9).
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States18
Providing a strong,
stable carbon
price is the single
policy action that
is likely to have
the largest effect
in promoting
economically
efficient
low-carbon
growth over the
longer term.
A 86 q w
q b (UNFCCC, 8,
7) G
b
,
wk w
Pk b
w
I ,
b w-
b ( Bx )
G wk, w,
b w ,
B b
b ,
b b ,
7 G,
k
b -
A,
x b w-b
w
(C 9, ), b
jb
3.2
Introducing a price for carbon
T W E F b
b
(WEF 9, 39) P , b
b k
w-b w
7 A , b w w ,
I w w b, w x
xb A
b x k
b
w-b
w
k b
(E
9, 39) M, b
b b
b ( Bx 3)
G
b k x Cb k
GHG b w
b
A b k
b w
b b w
G,
, b (OECD 8,
89; E 9, 4) B w
, b
k b
8
B , x q
GHG
A , w w
x; k
x, b w
8 Bw 8, , C DM (CDM) K P $95b (W Bk 9b, 4)
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
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However, carbon
prices cannot
be realistically
expected
to achieve
sufficiently highlevels in the
short to medium
term to provide
an economic
rationale for
the large-scale
deployment
of high-cost
abatement
options. A broade
portfolio of policyinstruments is
hence required. x (IPCC7: 755)
B x b k
,
b O ,
w
, b -
C, w,
b x b k
b w, ,
w - z
w-b q
w (C
Bx 3. Generating revenue for public ependiture
According to UNFCCC estimates, only a share of clean energy investmentapproximately 15 percent
will need to be covered by public spending (UNFCCC, 2008, p. 170). Providing stable revenue sources to
fund such expenditures will be crucial to avoid straining public budgets and incurring sovereign debt or
inflationary pressures. Numerous instruments have been proposed to yield such revenue streams, including
innovative instruments such as green bonds (Cameron, 2009, p. 10). Mostly, however, these revenue
streams are based on carbon markets or some form of carbon tax, and some examples currently under
discussion are described below.
A budget plan submitted by the U.S. President in February 2009, for instance, assumed $78.7 billion in
revenue in 2012 from the sale of greenhouse gas allowances, rising to a total of $645.7 billion by 2019
(OMB 2009). Likewise, about half of all allowances in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme will be auctioned
beginning in 2013, potentially yielding revenues of up to $60 billion annually (CCAP 2009 p. 11). At the
international level, Norway has proposed to withhold a small portionbetween 2 and 6 percentof Assigned
Amount Units (AAUs) from national quota allocations, auction it to developed countries through an appropriate
international institution, and thereby raise revenues of $15-25 billion annually (Norway 2009, p. 2).
Auctioning 50 percent of allowances in emissions trading systems already in operation or likely to be
implemented in the OECD over the next years could raise $90-180 billion a year between 2010 and
2020, assuming carbon prices of $25-45 per ton of CO2e (Project Catalyst 2009, p. 17). However,
revenue from auctioning funds will typically be earmarked for a range of domestic purposes, such as
deficit reduction. Allocating only half of these revenues to activities related to climate change, as the
European Commission has proposed for the EU, could still raise $45-90 billion, more than covering the
public investment needs outlined above. Alternative sources of financing, such as levies on bunker fuels
used in aviation and maritime shipping, have also recently featured in the political debate and could yield
$10 billion in funds each year.
9, ) N b b
x
:
w
(WEF 9, 35),
w q b b
- - b
, wb b
q A b q
b ,
(OECD 8, )
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States20
Meeting emission
reduction
targets will only
be possible
by drastically
reducing the
greenhouse gas
emissions per
unit of energy
produced.
3.3
Recommendations for key sectors
T b, w
x 8
b
39 F k , w
w
B w
w
, bw
b x
b
W b, w- -
b
9 E - : , , , , , , w,
3.4
Electrical power
T w , w
-b ,
59 b GHG (R
7, 5) P-
,
x
w M
w b b b
, q
w
B MK , w
U S, G, C
w q 6 b b
(BAU) , 8
b 3
G x
, - b
Bx 4. Eliminating subsidies on fossil fuels
A corollary to the introduction of a price on carbon is the elimination of price supports for carbon-
intensive technologies and especially for fossil fuels. Globally around $300 billion is being spent on
energy subsidies annually, with the largest share used to artificially lower or reduce the real price of
conventional fuels such as oil, coal and gas or electricity generated from fossil fuels (UNEP 2008, p. 10).
Cancelling these subsidies might reduce greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 6 percent a year while
contributing 0.1 percent to global GDP (UNEP 2008, p. 15).
Prevalent in developing countries as a means of assisting low income groups and promoting access to
energy, fossil fuel subsidies are also used in advanced industrial economies such as the United States,
where a recent survey by the Environmental Law Institute (ELI) found price support for fossil fuels to
substantially exceed subsidies for renewable energy sources: fossil fuels benefited from approximately
$72 billion between 2002 and 2008, while subsidies for renewable energy totaled only $29 billion in the
same period (ELI 2008, p. 3).
It is encouraging, therefore, that G20 leaders convening in Pittsburgh on 25 September 2009 pledged to
phase out and rationalize over the medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies while providing targeted
support for the poorest (G20 2009, p. 3). Without a specified timeline or detailed commitments,
however, it remains to be seen whether and how this pledge will ultimately be implemented.
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
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A majority of
investment will
need to come
from the private
sector, especially
in the mid- andlonger term, with
public investmen
mainly important
to restart stalled
projects and
spur financing i
the wake of the
financial crisis.
Governments
must also expan
public investmenin early stage
research and
development.
E w w
:
Renewable energy generation. K wb
w, (PV),
(CSP), ,
b w T W E
F
- -
w T
wb w
( ),z
wk b b b
( ), (b k)
b , b
b-
(WEF 9, 39)
Grid infrastructure. A W E
F , w w
b w b
z w b
b (WEF 9, 3) T
z w-
b w w
, WEF b Nw
E F w
$ , $68
b
x wk (WEF 9, 3) S-
- w b
Electricity storage. I
w ,
- wb, w
w b k
w , , C
$5/MW
b b,
$48/MW (WEF 9, 3)
Energy efficiency. Pk - b
w b w
b
(IPCC
7, ; WEF 9, ) I ,
C
k, w
33 w
U S (WEF 9, 3)
T w w -
S w
kw b
(, ),
w --
(, wb
) N w
, q b
b A j
w
, -
, w b
j wk w
w b b
A, x
b -
,
wb
3.4.1
Encouraging investment in renewable energy
Rwb
( w )
( b)
w
A
wb
x
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States22
While renewable
portfolio
standards provide
greater certainty
in terms of
deployment levels,
evidence from
implementation
suggests that
feed-in tariffs
are ultimately
more effective in
promoting rapid
deployment of
renewable energy.
z
,
q w wb
A b
wb - A -
b kw-
b wb ;
b ,
w
bk Sb, x
w w
k -
G, w wb
w
995 4 7
- (HBS 9, ) W
$9 b wb
9 (N 5, 54),
- , w b
wb
k
(S 9) A,
wb
G
w I 8,
78, jb G
wb w b F-
I T A (BMU 8, 36)
A - wb , wb q
T b E
US ; b
I 8, b 5 (BMU 8, 7)
w
wb W wb
wb b ,
w- -
wb ( Bx 5) T
x, w: UK,
, -
I b ,
b wb
, - b
Lk ,
wb
S, ,
x ,
bbb bq w M
, - x T
wb b
, q b , b I
G, , w -
- wb
x kW
k ,
-
w
(CDU/CSU/FDP 9, 9)
W wb
k w- wb
, - wb
A
k-,
Rwb
k b
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
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A smart grid has
the potential
to integrate
renewable
sources of energ
and to reducesuperfluous
demand, both of
which will result
lower greenhous
gas emissions.
-, w -
b
wb
3.4.2
Advanced electricity grids
A w , , w
b
wb z b
O , q
w
k w,
b w bk
O ,
b
w - b
, w - b
w k
A,
wb
, b w w
w Y,
w b w
b b w
b A , x wk
b
$ , w 7
wk ( WEF 9, 3)
Bx 5. Stimulating green-power generationGermanys feed-in tariffs versusthe U.K.s renewable obligations
The two biggest economies in the EU took very different pathways in promoting the deployment of
renewable energy in the electricity sector. Germany introduced guaranteed prices for each kWh produced
from renewable sources. In contrast to the German feed-in tariff, the U.K.s renewable energy support
system has primarily relied on the Renewables Obligation (RO)a quota system comparable to the
Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) widely used in the United States. The U.K. scheme obliges utilities
to supply a certain share of their power generation from renewable sources or to pay a buy-out price.
Compliance is proved through freely traded certificates (Renewable Obligation Certificates), which are the
main source of income for operators of renewable-energy installations.
Even though a direct comparison of the schemes is subject to some caveats (most importantly a much
later starting point of the U.K. scheme), current installation rates suggest that feed-in tariffs have fuelledmore dynamic growth in Germany than the RO policy has in the United Kingdom. Starting with a share of 3.4
percent renewable energy in total electricity consumption in 1990, Germany had doubled the contribution
of renewable energy to 6.7 percent in 2001 and then doubled it again by 2007, when the share reached
14 percent. Despite its enormous wind-energy potential, the United Kingdom only increased its share
of renewable electricity by 2 percentage points, from 3 percent in 2000 to 5 percent in 2007. Certainly,
the support regime is not the only explanation for different outcomes in the two countries, as planning
procedures and grid structure also play an important role. However, the planning security provided by fixed
feed-in tariffs has clearly made renewable energy projects a more attractive investment in Germany for all
types of investors, including small-scale developers and private households, as well as banks financing the
capital investments required. In addition, the technology differentiation built into Germanys various tariff rates
has allowed the promotion of all forms of renewable energy (e.g. more expensive solar generation) while the
British RO scheme has mostly benefitted the technology closest to cost-effectiveness: onshore wind.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States24
A , k
w
w I
z, b
qk
w
I
bkb
,
T
b w
j , b w b b
z
b
M q
w b b,
w I
, b wb
T b
x
, q -
w
W , b
- wb j
x G
w b
, b
G
-
wb
F,
b x
w
I ,
Nw Yk w
b
w, wk w w k (W, 9) S
b b
w , w
w w w bw
R
w w
;
b Pw w b
,
x b ,
b wb w (HBS 9, 3)
T b q
, b
,
w w -
w
3.4.3
Energy efficiency
I j
b
MK C
b - -
w w
(MK 9) Hw,
b w
- T
b b b b
-
-
C
- ,
b I , , b-
Without new
infrastructure
such as
transmission
lines, the barriers
to investment
in large-scale
renewable
projects far from
the existing grid
are too large.
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
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, w
b D
b
- ,
-bb
- q
b (WEST 8, 9),
w b b
Tx x
b w b
w
( ) I
, x
, b
, qk (UNEP
7, 37) L x
b k w x
x, x w b
w bz
I - ,
b
b w (CHP)
A kw ,
b
w C
w w
Bx 6. Carbon capture and storage: A controversial option
Reflecting the wide availability of coal and the role it plays in the production of electricity, many
studies and policies promote investment in carbon capture and storage (CCS) (WEF 2009, p. 32; UCS
2009, p. 77). CCS is a technology through which carbon dioxide is captured at the point of emission,
compressed, and transported to a storage site, such as an aquifer. CCS has received limited support
from environmental groups, although there is recognition that significant barriers to full-scale deployment
of renewable energy may justify investment in CCS to produce low-carbon energy on a large scale (UCS
2009, p. 77). The World Economic Forum identifies insufficient legislative incentives, incomplete
regulatory frameworks, and a lack of public acceptance as impediments to the deployment of CCS at this
point (WEF 2009, p. 32).
The development and deployment of CCS does have potential to drastically reduce the carbon profile of
coal-fired power plants. In addition to demonstrating the technology at scale, however, widespread use of
CCS would require tremendous infrastructure investments to develop the system of pipelines that would
transport carbon captured in the production process to underground storage sites. Environmental risks
from the storage of vast amounts of carbon dioxide undergroundincluding, notably, the risk of leakage
can only be assessed by demonstration projects. Furthermore, CCS reduces the efficiency of a coal-fired
power plant, requiring the mining, transportation, and burning of more coal (WEF 2009, pp. 7980), all
with inherent negative environmental impacts.
Despite these concerns, the political barriers for other sources of energy may very well be too real
to ignore in the short term, and thus CCS should not be altogether omitted from the toolbox of policy
options. As mitigation strategies are deployed over the long term, moreover, and other abatement options
are increasingly exhausted on the path toward a carbon-neutral economy, CCS can prove an essential
technology to sequester unavoidable process emissions in various sectors, such as cement and steel.
More research and development and actual deployment projects are required to better assess the costs,potential, and risks of using large-scale CCS to provide low-carbon energy.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States26
; CHP , b , w w
, , ,
b G
,
w T
E P A
CHP
- w U S
33 bw 6
8 (EPA 9) T CHP
b 45
(Ww 9, 4) I w , CHP
, b ,
A
w w
w CHP ,
bk
w CHP
R b
x,
CHP
x T UK
CHP , : VAT -
CHP, b EU
E T S, b
w, x
(DECC 9)
3.5
Transport
T 3
b w
(R 7, 5) C
b
w B
b MK C,
w q 5
b BAU , 37 b 3
K :
Transitioning to hybrid and electric vehicles.
C bz
b
A w
b w : -
b, ,
b w
w b b (IPCC 7, )
R x b b
w w
(E S
9, 5)
Public transportation and transportation
planning. Lw
w q
b
,
-
(EDF 9) I ,
x k
-
Improving vehicle efficiency. Lw
q b -
- A Pw
C Gb C C,
- (
) b
b b - - w x
w , b w
(Pw 3, 3) I ,
b RD w
w
Climate
stabilization
scenarios rely
heavily on the
concept of a
rapid transition to
hybrid and
electric cars.
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
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Freight transportation. S b
T Pw
- b b b
5 - 5
- (Pw 3,
8) T Pw
b -
,
, bk ( b
) (
) (Pw 3, 9) I, w b
-
, w b
, w w
(Pw 3, )
Hw , w
, w
q
k
C A w ,
q A j
q w w
G
wk z
w; b w b
,
Tw
RD
b
Pb
b
, w-b b Bw
k b
w-b b
3.5.1
Vehicle efficiency standards
G z
b O
CO , q
z (UCS 9, 5)
S w b
,
w b b
- -
D , q
w -w x
C b b
w q : b
,
- b, ,
R
EU (R (EC) N 443/9)
x b z
EU 3 CO k (/k) b
5 A
,
b b -
b, w b w
w
b w w
T b b
w T R
b b-
( S 36)
V w b
w b
,
w z
How humans fue
their cars, how
transportation
infrastructure is
designed, and
how goods aretransported are
all investment
opportunities
that require
policymakers
immediate
attention to
maintain a
2C limit.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States28
b T w
b
b, b , - b,
-
3.5.2
Research and development
W k
w w w-b
, b
w q
bk Pb
w b
x Pb
RD b w k
T
w-b
, b w j
x F
b b ,
b , , b
z B , b
G
, ,
-w-b , ,
S
b
b w
k w, w-b b
(C
9, 9) F, b
b RD,
(C
9, 9)
3.5.3
Infrastructure and sustainable cities
A -
Pb b
F, b
w w-b
, w
b
W b
, w
w- -b
b b
S, b b
b b
P
- b
z
b
w ,
wkb b P
b
w x
b b
T w w
wk, ,
w-b b
b-
A , b
x
-
, b, w
b
P w
Hw,
w b
, b w b z
(Pw 3, 5)
R w b
x , w
As in other
sectors, public
investment
to upgrade
and expand
transportation
infrastructure
and regulatory
changes
to remove
disincentives for
transit-oriented
private real-estate
investment can,
in combination,
create new
opportunities
for profitable
private investment
in low-carbon
alternatives.
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
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b I ,
GHG : C
k
b
T, b b w
k
w
3.6
Buildings and energy efficiency
I b ,
bb
b T
b CO
(79 ) (R 7, 5),
b x w b
B MK ,
b
4 b
BAU N A, W
E C T b
,
b w
3 w
T w
k - x
b k - B 3,
b x
w b , b
w 39
GHG b 4
b 3
K GHG-b :
Building design and retrofitting. S w -
b, b
(MK 9,
7) A b IPCC,
b
b GHG , -x/,
, b ,
PV ,
ww (IPCC 7, )
Improved energy efficiency. T IPCC
w b
b:
;
; k ;
; (IPCC 7, ) N 8
b j k :
x w (WEF 9, 3) A,
w- -
w (MK 9,
7)
Urban planning. I b
b
b ,
I
w b w- b
A w z
, b IPCC,
w q q b b
k bk, wk,
b
(IPCC 7, )
T bk w, ,
W ,
, w
,
b
b (UNEP 9, 8) R
b b
b
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States30
Building codes
themselves only
capture part of
the potential to
reduce emissions
in the building
sector. Over half
of the reduction
potential from
the building
sector stem
from changes in
equipment.
b w (IPCC7, 7) M w
, w x
(MK 9, 7), b
wk,
b x
A , ,
b ,
b w b z w
b RD (USGBC 8, 5; NSTC 8, 58) Pb
w b
,
w
b G-
w
b w
b W w
k b
b
3.6.1Building codes and efficiency standards
G
b T k w :
b
j q ( ,
, )
-b
b
T , w
b x (UNEP
7, 9), w
F w , -
b
: )
b w b b ; )
b b b w b
, w w
(, b, x , )
b w w
; 3) -
b ,
z
w (EURIMA 6, )
W - ,
(b )
w b, b-b
, -
b W w b
, b
k b w S
b
w w T
x
, (x
, x) w k b
B
b
O
b b MK
q (MK 9,
6-7) T,
q b
T T R P b
J , w
q
;
, w
T b
,
, A
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
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To be effective
in the long-
term, codes and
standards must
updated regularly
to reflect producdesign, and
material
advances.
w x
M, b
, b
, ,
B x ,
b
b k I
b
q, , , w (USGBC
4) w b
-z b (NSTC 8,
6), w
b
3.6.2
Information and education
Lk b
b ,
( Bx 7) W w GHG- , b
w- -
I b b z w
b T b ,
b
(w ,
x) w
(w b) S
,
w k b
w q
(UNEP 7, 4445)
Pb b
,
, ;
b -
T , wk
x ,
, b b
w
(WEST 8, 69)
A, b
-
b b
B z
w b w
x-
(USGBC 8, 5)
Bx 7. Policy packages for developing countries
The policy strategy outlined here can be effective in nearly every setting. However, a UNEP report sheds
particular light on the unique difficulties faced by developing countries in the building sector (UNEP
2007, pp. 65-68). Research demonstrates that a basket of measures introduced simultaneously is most
likely to achieve meaningful results in the developing country context. One possible integrated policywould combine a regulatory mechanism (building standards) with capacity building and training along
with demonstration projects (funded by the government) and financial incentives for adoption. Without
implementation and enforcement, many policies to promote building efficiency will failespecially in many
developing countries. As many developing countries face financial and capacity limitations to develop
and enforce building codes and other policies, developed countries could facilitate building investment in
developing countries by directing funds toward training, enforcement, and financial incentives.
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States32
3.7
Remaining sectors
T w MK
b 3 T
GHG b w (
w 3):
(5 ), (4 ),
(3 ), (3 ),
O -
( ), w ( ), (
), ( ) A
b x w, $5
CO b, q
(MK 9, 7) T
q 8 b 3,
b w q
GHG b,
$395 b
$475 b 63
Figure 4. Policy portfolio for green transformation
Renewable Energy Promotion
Advanced Transmission Grids
Supply-Side Efciency Improvement
*Other sectors subject to carbon pricing: industrial emissions; via offsets: agriculture, forestry
Vehicle Efciency Standards
Research and Development
Sustainable Infrastructure and Planning
Carbon Pricing*
Building Codes and Standards
Information and Education
Demand-Side Energy Efciency
Electrical Power Transport Buildings
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
Needs, Progress, and Policies33
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States34
A successful
transformation
process will
depend on the
ability to channel
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technologies
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States36
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Transforming Economies Through Green Investment:
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The German Marshall Fund of the United States38
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