TRANSFORMATIVE SOLUTIONS: CITIES FOR PEOPLE

PHOTO: JESS KRAFT/SHUTTERSTOCK

ANI DASGUPTA | GLOBAL DIRECTOR, WRI ROSS CENTER FOR SUSTAINABLE CITIES

May 24, 2016

2Photo by Stephen Bugno/Flickr.

GDP per capita: $1,110 (2014)Population : 5.02 millionPoverty Rate: 25%

KOLKATA, INDIA

3Photo by: VnGrijl/Flickr

KOLKATA HAS BEEN MAKING STREETS WIDER TO ACCOMMODATE GROWING NUMBER OF CARS

4Photo by: VnGrijl/Flickr

NARROW SIDEWALKS FORCE PEOPLE ONTO STREETS, SLOWING TRAFFIC FURTHER

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CYCLING BANNED TO MAKE ROOM FOR CARS ON MAIN STREETS

6Photo by Nicolas Mirguet/Flickr

ONLY 8% PEOPLE IN KOLKATA DRIVE CARS25% WALK OR CYCLE

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CHOICES TODAY CREATE PATH DEPENDENCIES FOR DECADES TO COME

Source: IIHS,2011,h\p://iihs.co.in/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/IUC-Book.pdf

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LOW DENSITY SPRAWL AT THE URBAN FRINGE

Selected findings, Kolkata urban fringe, 1990-2014: • Share of residential area in atomistic housing: 92.1±7.4%;• Share of the built-up area in roads and boulevards: 8.4±2.2%; and• Share of roads less than 4m. wide: 66.7±13.3%

Residential development on the urban fringe of Kolkata, India1(1990-2014)

Source: Sholomo Angel

THE FUTURE IS MORE LIKE KOLKATA THAN BERLIN – PROJECTED URBAN GROWTH 2030

Note: 1692 urban agglomerations.Source: World Resources ReportData Source: World Urbanization Prospects 2014; World Bank country classification.

(N=769 cities)

WITH GROWTH MOSTLY IN AFRICA AND SOUTH ASIA 2015-2030

Source: World Resources ReportData Source: Oxford Economics

CITIES ARE GROWING MOST RAPIDLY IN LOWER- AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES

Note: 1692 urban agglomerationsSource: World Resources ReportData Sources: World Urbanization Prospects 2014; World Bank country classification

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COMPARISON OF CITY POPULATION AND BUDGET PER CAPITA IN CITIES IN GLOBAL SOUTH AND NORTH

Source: World Resources Report

Source: V. A. Beard, A. Mahendra, M.I. Westphal, Framing A More Equal City: Strategies for Urban Transformation, 2016.

Accra

Mombasa

Nairobi

Lagos

Durban

Johannesburg

Colombo

BangaloreSurat

Ahmedabad

Mumbai

Medellin

Bogotá

Mexico City

Porto Alegro

São Paulo

Rio de Janeiro

Belo Horizonte

Seoul

Chengdu

Qingdao

Wuhan

Guangzhou

Tianjin

Beijing

Shanghai

Yokohama

Copenhagen

Singapore

New York0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

City population (1000s) Budget per capita (USD)

HOW WE BUILD CITIES MATTERS

Source: LSE research, drawing on data from Atlanta Regional Commission (2014), Autoritat del Transport Metropolita (Area de Barcelona) (2013), GenCat (2013), UCSB (2014), D’Onofrio (2014), based on latest data.

Atlanta’s built-up area Barcelona’s built-up area

Population: 5.26 millionTotal area: 16,605 km2

Urban area: 7692 km2

Transport emissions: 6.9 tonnes CO2 p.c.

Traffic fatalities: 564 per year

Population: 5 millionTotal area: 3263 km2

Urban area: 648 km2

Transport emissions: 1.2 tonnes CO2 p.c.

Traffic fatalities: 31 per year

ATLANTA BARCELONA

WHAT STRATEGIES WILL AVOID LOCK-IN?

Source: World Bank

Short-Term Capital Stock

Long-Term Capital Stock

Infrastructure

Land Use and Urban Form

10-15 years

15-40 years

30-75+ years

100+ years

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SO, HOW DO WE TRANSFORM FROM HERE…

Photo: Mexico City

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…TO HERE?

Photo: Andreas/Flickr

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GROWING CONSENSUS IS ON COMPACT AND CONNECTED CITIES

SCALING UP INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS IS POSSIBLE IN CITIES

Source: Dalkmann, WRI

STRATEGIES WE CHOOSE HAVE TO MAKE CITIES MORE:

PRODUCTIVE

GREEN

EQUAL

ECONOMIC PRODUCTIVITYPhoto: Benoit Colin/WRI

CITIES ARE ENGINES OF GROWTH AND PROSPERITY

SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute, Population Division of the United Nations; Angus Maddison via Timetrics; Global Insight; Census reports of England and Wales; Honda in Steckel & Floud,1997; Bairoch, 1975

65%global GDP growth in major cities

TRAFFIC CONGESTION HURTS PRODUCTIVITY

Sources: IBM Institute for Business Value, Smarter cities for smarter growth. Li-Zeng Mao, Hong-Ge Zhu, and Li-Ren Duan (2012) The Social Cost of Traffic Congestion and Countermeasures in Beijing. Sustainable Transportation Systems: pp. 68-76.

HIGH QUALITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT AFFECTS CITY COMPETIVENESS

Note: * Determined by composite rankings against a range of indicators. Based on ranking of 24 international cities with #24 being the top rank. For more information on these see PwC Cities of Opportunity available at http://www.pwc.com/us/en/cities-of-opportunity/

HIGH QUALITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT AFFECTS CITY PRODUCTIVITY

Note: * Determined by composite rankings against a range of indicators. Based on ranking of 24 international cities with #24 being the top rank. For more information on these see PwC Cities of Opportunity available at http://www.pwc.com/us/en/cities-of-opportunity/

CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTPhoto: Benoit Colin/WRI

26Photo: Flickr/PauloFehlauer; Sources: UN-Habitat, UNFCCC, WHO

23% of global GHG emissions are from transport

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE TARGETS ARE NOT POSSIBLE WITHOUT THE TRANSFORMATION OF CITIES

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70% of GHG emissions come from cities

TRANSPORT AND BUILDINGS PROVIDE KEY OPPORTUNITIES

Photo: Jacek/Flickr Source: IPCC

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Total stock of motor cars, projections up to 2050TRACKER

Total number of cars in thousands

1 Footnote

SOURCE: Fulton/IEA 2008

In 1

,000

CLIMATE GOALS CANNOT BE REACHED ON THE CURRENT TREND TOWARD MOTORIZATION

Hidalgo and Duduta (2013)

60% OF THE 2030 GLOBAL BUILDING STOCK IS YET TO BE BUILT

Source: NASA Image. UN World Population Prospects. 2009. UNFCCC

A MORE EQUAL CITY:HIGH QUALITY OF LIFE FOR ALLPhoto: Benoit Colin/WRI

RISE OF MOTORIZATION RESULTS IN UNHEALTHY, UNSAFE CITIES

• 1.3MM deaths globally from traffic incidents

• 90% of the world’s road traffic deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries

• Air pollution linked to 6.7% of deaths worldwide

Source: WHO

NONE OF THE WORLD’S TOP 50 CITIES BY POPULATION MEET WHO AIR QUALITY STANDARDS

SOURCE: Mortality data from World Health Organisation: http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.wrapper.ENVHEALTH3

INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS ARE GROWING

Source: UN (2014). *CAR: Central African republic, STP: Sao Tome and Principe, DRC: Democratic Republic of Congo, Non-SSA (av) average in rest of the countries.

CITIES ARE DISCONNECTED

Source: UNEP and FIA Foundation 2013

Most people must walk to work

EMERGING GAPS IN QUALITY OF LIFE

Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank, Figures for 2010

COSTLY FOR WORKERS

Source: Kumar and Barrett (2008)

HIGH QUALITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT AFFECTS QUALITY OF LIFE

Note: * Determined by composite rankings against a range of indicators. Based on ranking of 24 international cities with #24 being the top rank. For more information on these see PwC Cities of Opportunity available at http://www.pwc.com/us/en/cities-of-opportunity/

COMPACT, CONNECTED GROWTH PRODUCES INTERCONNECTED OUTCOMES

THIS SHIFT IS POSSIBLE IN THE GLOBAL NORTH

Source: TfL

THIS SHIFT IS POSSIBLE IN THE GLOBAL SOUTH

Source: Bogota Como Vamos, Encuesta de Percepción Ciudadana

WE NEED TO SPEND DIFFERENTLY, NOT JUST MORE

Transport spending across the world today, WRI study

MAJORITY OF CITIES HAVE NOT MADE THIS SHIFT

THE NEW URBAN AGENDA ?

• Build on consensus, focus on solutions for more equal cities

• Prioritize actions for cities

• Transition from technical solutions to political campaigns

Photo: Benoit Colin/WRI