Towards Sustainable Fisheriesin Europe

Rainer Froese

GEOMAR, Kiel, Germanyrfroese@geomar.de

3rd International Conference on

Progress in Marine Conservation in Europe 2012

18. - 22. June 2012, Ozeaneum Stralsund, Germany 1

Status of Global Fish Stocks

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‚Stability‘ in world catches masks decline of fish stocks

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Global Catches are Stagnating

Pauly and Froese, 2012

Global Effort Keeps Increasing

Pauly and Froese, 2012

Global Fish Stocks are Shrinking

If catches are stagnating

while effort is increasing

then fish stocks must be shrinking

Pauly and Froese, 2012

• The method to assess all global stocks proposed by Froese & Kesner-Reyes (2002), subsequently used by others, including Worm et al. (2006) for their 2048 prediction, is sound

• Global overfishing continues

• FAO, by using a subset of well-researched stocks, severely underestimates global overfishing

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Status of Global Fish Stocks 2009

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Neue Bestände

Zusammengebrochen

Undeveloped

Developing

Fully exploited

Overexploited

Collapsed

Froese et al. Marine Biology 2012

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European Stocks and Fisheries

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Status of all European Stocks

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Neue Bestände

Zusammengebrochen

Developing

Fully exploited

Undeveloped

Overexploited

Collapsed

Froese et al. Marine Biology 2012

• The Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1982) requires stock sizes that can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY)

• Johannesburg (2002) gave the political goal of 2015

• With ‘business as usual’ Europe will miss this goal by more than 30 years

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Rebuilding European Fish Stocks

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0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Year

Mea

n s

tock

siz

e

TargetPrecautionary

Overfished

Unsafe

Trend

Average size of 54 European fish stocks (bold blue line). The upper arrow indicates the path, if 75% of the stocks were to reach the internationally agreed target in 2015. The lower arrow shows the current trend.

Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010

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Fishing Pressure on European Fish Stocks

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0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Year

Fis

hin

g p

ress

ure

(F/F

msy

)

TargetPrecautionary

Overfishing

TrendThreatening the stock

Average fishing pressure on 54 European fish stocks. The lower arrow indicates the path if 75% of the stocks were to be fished at the maximum sustainable rate in 2015. However, with the current trend that target will be

missed by more than 30 years. Froese et al. Fish & Fisheries 2010

UNCLOS CFP FAO/UNFAS JPOI Damanaki

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• CFP contains over 600 regulations, some contradictory, without efficient control

• CFP aims for smallest viable instead of optimal stock size• Annual horse-trading leads to overfishing and uncertainty• Subsidies waste taxpayers money and create and

maintain overcapacity

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Harvest Control Rules for Future Fisheries

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Generic Harvest Control Rules for European FisheriesRainer Froese, Trevor A. Branch, Alexander Proelß, Martin Quaas, Keith Sainsbury & Christopher Zimmermann (2011)

Rules for sustainable and profitable fisheries based on 1) economic optimization of fisheries 2) honoring international agreements 3) true implementation of the precautionary principle 4) learning from international experiences 5) ecosystem-approach to fisheries management 6) recognizing the biology of European fish stocks

If these rules were applied, catches could increase by 63%

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Harvest Control Rule Schema

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0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Biomass / B msy

Ca

tch

/ M

SY

B msy0.5 B msy 1.3 B msy

DepletedZone

OverfishingZone

BufferZone

TargetZone

MSY

0.91 MSY

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European Fisheries

0

0.2

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0.6

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1

1.2

1.4

1.6

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Biomass / B msy

Cat

ch /

MS

Y

B msy0.5 B msy 1.3 B msy

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Profits in Fisheries

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• Due to several lucky coincidences, the eastern Baltic cod stock is recovering

• Here we looked at options for management to fully rebuild the stock and make the fishery highly profitable

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Simulated profits for the eastern Baltic cod resulting from four different management options. Froese & Quaas 2011

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• The North Sea cod is outside of safe biological limits and the southern subpopulation may be lost

• Yet, legalized overfishing continues at 3 * Fmsy

• What if the fishery had been closed in 2003, following scientific advice?

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Actual and Possible Stock Size

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Actual stock size

Possible stock size

Three year closure

Froese & Quaas, in prep.

Actual and Possible Profits

25Froese & Quaas, in prep.

Possible profits

Actual profits

Seafood Labels to the Rescue

• Definitions of ‚overfished‘ and ‚overfishing‘ that are compatible with international law

• 19% (FoS) to 31% (MSC) of certified stocks are overfished and suffer from ongoing overfishing

• But 61% (MSC) to 81% (FoS) of stocks with data are large enough and moderately exploited, which is better than the 15% in uncertified stocks

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What‘s Coming

• Fishing industry borrows from natural capital at high shadow interest rates.

Martin Quaas et al., in press

• A simple method for estimating MSY from catches and resilience.

Martell and Froese, in press

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News from the CFP Reform

• The Commission (Maria Damanaki) has presented an ambitious CFP reform proposal

• The Council of Agriculture Ministers has now decided upon its ‚compromise‘ position

• The European Parlament will present its position in November, then a new compromise has to be negotiated

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The Council Compromise

• Postpone sustainable fishing for stocks without Fmsy estimates until 2020

• Lots of loopholes for continued overfishing, e.g. of vulnerable species in mixed fisheries

• Administrative monster for reduction of discards

• Continued subsidies

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What is the Role of ICES in the CFP Reform?

• Presented a Harvest Control Rule that allows catches beyond MSY and fishing of collapsed stocks

• Presented a multi-species management proposal for the Baltic with heavy overfishing for cod, sprat and herring

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European Fisheries

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0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Biomass / B msy

Cat

ch /

MS

Y

B msy0.5 B msy 1.3 B msy

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ICESHarvest ControlRule

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http://www.ices.dk/committe/acom/comwork/report/2012/2012/Baltic_multispecies_advice.pdf....

Fmsy Fproposed F

Eastern Cod 0.30 0.60 – 0.65

Herring 0.16 0.26

Sprat 0.35 0.46

Thank You

Questions?

Presentation and Papers available from

www.fishbase.de/rfroese

Rainer Froese

rfroese@geomar.de

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