Post on 13-Jan-2016
Tipping PointsTipping PointsA Future World for Facilities
Dr James Bellini
24 September 2007
Brain Map of the FuturistBrain Map of the Futurist
Key knowledge areas
History
technology
psychology
Arts
Energy
geographysociology
Geo-politics
science
statistics
Drivers Of The Facilities Drivers Of The Facilities Future Future
Older, richer marketsLeisure imperativeVirtual organisationsPost-carbon economyGeneration CA Connected WorldDemoted ‘reality’
‘The Future’ is about ways of seeing the present…’
A Global Business Map?
Or seven business cultures?
North Atlantic
Latin
Eastern Orthodox
East AsiaMuslim
Hindu
African
North Atlantic
Latin
Reality Check - Dateline Reality Check - Dateline 2015 2015
A leading space nation begins recovery of helium-3 from the surface of the Moon
Helium-3 is a potential fusion fuel that one day could replace all earthly energy sources
That nation is China
What Is ‘Flash Mobbing’?What Is ‘Flash Mobbing’?Timeline: Manhattan July 2003
several hundred people suddenly gather in 9th floor rug department of Macy’s store
they begin discussing buying a ‘Love Rug’as bewildered sales staff look on, they
suddenly melt awaydays later several hundred people suddenly
flood plush lobby of Hyatt Hotel and burst into synchronised applause for bemused guests
Horizon 1990Horizon 1990
A World Without…
Internet -Emails -Websites Text messages Laptops DVDs Digital cameras Video phones iPods Genetics Chat rooms, phishing, blogging, podcasting,
flash mobbing…
Tipping PointsTipping Points
Future Worlds◦ People shift◦ Eastern promise
Future Realities of Work and Play◦ Where, when and why?
Shrinking EuropeShrinking Europe [% of world population][% of world population]
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2050
EuropeRest of World
2000
2005
2010 2015
2020 2025
ITALY
GERMANY
DENMARK
SPAINEU 15
Europe’s Disappearing People
Year when population starts to shrink
Europe’s Disappearing Workers
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
ITALY
GERMANY
DENMARKSPAIN
EU 15AUSTRIA
FINLAND
PORTUGAL
FRANCEUK
IRELAND
NL
BELGIUM
Year when available workforcestarts to shrink
New Households
A Bridget Jones Britain: Living Alone
The Coming LeisureThe Coming Leisure RevolutionRevolution
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1950 2020
Hours per working lifetime
A New Age of ConsumersA New Age of Consumers
In the 21st century the average UK citizen will live 30 years longer than in the 19th century -- a unique, new generation of demanding, affluent, aspirational, older people.
A Frivolous Future?A Frivolous Future?
Completelysuperfluous
Luxury
Important
Basic
Life necessity
2020
Changing Consumer Patterns
A Population MosaicA Population Mosaic
Annual growth rate in %
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Sweden Australia S Arabia Libya S Africa
Eastern GiantsEastern Giants [2050 population in billions][2050 population in billions]
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
India China USA Nigeria Indonesia
An Urban Future An Urban Future
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1800 1900 1960 2000 2030 2050
% world population living in cities
World Wealth 2020World Wealth 2020
The China FactorThe China Factor
Is world’s biggest consumer of grain, meat, coal, steel, cement, timber …..
By 2030 China will:◦ Match US 2006 living standards◦ Eat two-thirds of world’s 2006 grain harvest◦ Use double world’s current output of paper◦ Have 1.1 billion cars
current world total is 800 million roads etc will equal current area of rice growing
A Networked WorldA Networked World
In 1965 there were 10,000 people for every computer
In 2015 there will be 10,000 connected devices for every person
A Digital WorldA Digital World
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2006 2010
Total Digital Information Created Per Year
exabytes
1 exabyte = 1 billion gigabytes Source: IDC
A New Collective A New Collective IntelligenceIntelligence
The Wealth of NetworksThe Wealth of Networks
The networked information economy is replacing the industrial information economy
The aggregate effect of individual actions creates a new and rich virtual information universe
The Wisdom of CrowdsThe Wisdom of Crowds ‘Markets seem to work in practice. But we do not
know how they work in theory’
The ‘collective consciousness’ is the source of true insight and innovation
The benefits of ‘collective action’ are greater than the costs
The uniquely democratic characteristics of the Web are the route to high-value-added solutions
Harnessing Collective IntelligenceHarnessing Collective Intelligence
Re-inventing The WheelRe-inventing The Wheel
‘to build a car using the collectivecreativity of the Internet community’
OScar Manifesto
The successful company of 2020 will have no HQ, no CEO, own no IT and will
have one-tenth the fixed assets it has today
It’s most vital competitive resource will be the emotional connections it has built
with its customers
Doing Business in 2020
You are here
Traditional ‘Mistrust’ Model
Virtual ModelVirtual Model
TASK
Contingent specialist
Knowledge broker
Customer
PRE-INDUSTRIALPRE-INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRIALINDUSTRIAL VIRTUALVIRTUAL
TaskTask
Home/workHome/work
LocalLocal
CustomsCustoms
CommunitCommunit
yy
Role/Role/
PositionPosition
Factory/Factory/
officeoffice
MassifiedMassified
LawsLaws
InstitutionsInstitutions
TaskTask
NomadicNomadic
Centre-lessCentre-less
RelationshipRelationship
ss
NetworksNetworks
The Evolving ‘Job’
A Free-Agent FutureA Free-Agent Future
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
UK Germany France
Telework
FreE-work
% total 2020 workforce
Source: Telework Association
The Digital PersonThe Digital PersonHolistic entityUnpredictableIrrationalMultiple identitiesVirtual livesConfused
A New Psychological ContractA New Psychological Contract
We are moving from the Industrial Age
to the Connected Age
Business needs a new mentalmodel of how to engage inrelationships with its customers
Old Hierarchy Of Needs
New Hierarchy of Wants
A Dream SocietyA Dream Society
A new society in which businesses, communities and individuals will thrive on the basis of their stories, not just on data and information
What’s The Story?
Who Am I?Who Am I?
We constantly try to make sense of our life by forming a story about reality
The story we create internally provides context for our life but is not often articulated externally
Reality is something we actively construct – but each of us generates a slightly different version
This ‘reality’ drives our psyche as a consumer, employee, citizen
A ‘Real’ Future?A ‘Real’ Future?
Tipping PointsTipping PointsA Future World for Facilities
Dr James Bellini
24 September 2007