Time Shifting

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Transcript of Time Shifting

AnOldRefrainTHEDESIREtomeasuretheeffectivenessofadvertisinghasexistedforalongtime.In1990,textsonKPIwerealreadybeenpublished.Atthesametime,themassiveuseofeconometricmodelsformarketingandmediaplanningwasontherise.Inconjunctionwiththegrowthofthedigitalrealm,alsoattributionmodelscameintoplay,andarenowbeingutilizedforseveralyears.Alltheseareparamountelementsforevaluatingtheperformanceofcommunicationexpenses,andforanticipatingsuccessfulsolutions.‘KPI,econometricandattributionmodels’arestillontheincreaseasGooglesearchhits.Thereisboundlessliterature,inwhichthecustomerjourneyisalwayspivotal.Wheredowestand?Andmostimportantly,whichwayshouldwebeheading?ThetwoapproachesTheanalysisofcommunicationeffectivenesshastwodifferentobjectives:1.toassesswhethertheinvestmenthasactuallygeneratedareturngreaterthanthecosts;2.toverifytheefficiencyofeachtool.Intheseaoftechnicalitiesinwhichadvertisingcontroloftendrifts,therearesomekeypointsthatcanchangetheperspective,andconsequently,theresult.Thesevariablesareobvious,andthereforeoftenunderestimated.Letusbeginfromthemostextensiveandimportantstandpoint:thereturnoninvestment.1.ReturnoninvestmentevaluationInabusinessperspective,thereturnoninvestmentmustbehigherthanthecosts.Whetherprint,digital,orOOH,thegoalremainsthesame.IfIspend100,Iwishtogetanoverallreturnofatleastaround104-106,hopingtoreachthefinal115-120,netofinevitablemishaps.

Gettingahighreturnoninvestmentmayappeareasy,orconversely,animpossiblechallenge.Italldependsonmanyfactors,aspermanyspecializedtexts(eg.https://www.amazon.com/Long-Short-Balancing-Long-TermStrategies/dp/085294134X)Frommyside,Iwouldliketofocusonthreesimple,intuitiveandneglectedvariables,ofteninfluencingROIresults.Theyare:a.Investments(ie:thecostswedecidetoenter)b.Return(theresultweexpecttoachieve)c.Time(thetimeframeinwhichtheresultisachieved).a.InvestmentsAllcommunicationexpensesaregroupedundertheentry‘investments’.Thenumberofrelevantentrieshasconsiderablyincreasedovertheyears:fromthecreativity+media+productiontrio,toanarticulatedlistincludingdifferentareasofspecialisation.“Today,asweknow,communicationrequiresmorespeed,tools,knowledge,andlongerworkinghoursthaneverbefore”.HastheROIevaluationinthedigitalerachanged?Insomeways,yes.Withregardtoadvertisingexpenses,nowadaysamoreimportantroleisplayedbythoserelatingtotechnologyandcontrol.Asitalwayshappensintimesoffastandcontinuousevolution(asitalsowasinthe80's),operatingcostsincreasetoo.Consequently,thereisanincreaseofinvestmentsneededto‘catchup’withthefastdevelopingmarket.Inordertoreachthesamenumberofpeople,moreworkinghours,technology,control,andofcourse,morespeedthaninthepastareneeded.Butwecanreachthecommunicationrecipientsbetterthanbefore.Wesaidthatwe'can’doit,notthatwe'manage’todoit.Infact,theROIhelpstounderstandwhetherthepossibilityhasactuallyturneditselfintoconcretefacts:iftheinvestmenthasbeenprofitable,withactualresultshigherthancosts.b.ReturnGivingarundowntothepointofanexcessivesimplification,effectivecommercialcommunicationprovidesthefollowingresults:

q purchaseintheshorttermq brandstrengthening(whichinturnsalsocontributestothepurchase,andwhosefinancialreturnis

merelydeferred)q alloftheabove.

Ofthesethreeresults,itisactuallythethethird-themixedone-thatcomprisesthelargestnumberofinvestments:ononehand,itgeneratesanimmediateincreaseofpurchases,andontheotherhanditspreadstheirfinancialreturnovertime(contributingtowhatweusuallyrefertoasbrandequity).

Theoverallevaluationofthesuccessofacommercialcommunicationtakesintoconsiderationthemonitoringofbothsystems:salesincreaseandbrand-relatedvalues.Therefore,acomparableKPIsystemisnecessary,includingbothpurchasemetrics,andtheotherdefiningbrandequityindicators.Beforeventuringintothecomplexworldofbrandequity,let’sjustcombinethesalesindicatorstothebrandingones,expressedthroughthetwofundamentalKPI:•brandawareness•brandprofile/reputationc.TimeAtthispointaquestionarises:whatisthetimeframeneededtomeasureresults?Timeisthenecessaryvariableinordertoframetheperiodinwhichtoobtainandevaluateresults.Asweknow,communicationcanactdifferentlydependingonitsdefiningvariables.Measuringsuccessdoesnotonlymeansettingobjectives,butalsosettingdeadlines(andtherefore,identifyingtoolstobeused).Notmakingclearaboutwhenwewanttogetresultsmeansnotbeingabletoevaluatetheeffectivenessofcommercialcommunication.Ifmeasuredatthewrongtime,asuresuccesscanappearasafailure.Andviceversa.Infact,timehasatleast4connotations,whichdirectlyinfluencecommunicationperformance:First:experientialRosatistates"timeisthefabricthatshapesexperience"(1).Digitalrealityhasincreasedthepossibilityofplayingaroundwithspaceandtime.Settingatimelimitmeanstofocusonsuitableoptions,andbetterexploittheirpotential.Second:commercialTheabilitytobuyatcompetitivepricesisstronglyrelatedtotime.Availabletimetoidentifythemostcost-effectivesolutions,timefornegotiations,andtimeconstraints(calendar)Third:mediaplanningTheparadigmshiftisimportant.Shiftingtheattentionfromstarttofinish.Fromoutputtoresult.Fromthemomentwewantthecommercialcommunicationtostart,totheonewhenperformancewillbemeasured.Besides,thetimevariableseemstohaverevolutionizedallfieldsofknowledgebuttraditionalmediaplanning,whichmoreoverisstillunderperforminginstandardizingthetemporalmetricsofresearch.Fourth:companypolicyLaunches,seasonalpurchasing,restocking,stockprices,andalsoheadquarterdeadlinesmakeitnecessarytogatherthefirstevidencesbeforespecificdates.Therefore,thereturnoninvestmentcannotdisregardthetimevariable,whichisactuallythemostimportantelementofall.Anexampleoftheimportanceofthetime?Trytoimaginehowdifferentlysettingadeadlineornotsettingit,whetheritisaboutwork,loveorsports,canimpactourlives.

2.TheefficiencyofcommunicationleveragesMeasuringtheefficiencyofcommunicationleveragesisstandardpracticealsoinItaly.Althoughwhatismissingisoftentheabilitytoorganizeinformationandputitinorderofimportanceaccordingtoobjectives.Incompaniesandagencies(butalsoonthedesktopofanindependentprofessionallikemyself),thereisoftenabingeofnumbersthatlosessightoftheultimategoalofthemeasurement:understandingwhetherwehavereachedourgoal.Thisisaccompaniedbyanoppositereaction:theabsenceofverificationduetolackoftime.Therefore,ifitistruethatcompaniesandagenciesshouldhaveinplaceanautomaticcalculationsystemforallcommunicationindicators(performanceindicatorsaremuchmorestablethanonewouldthink),itisonlythechoiceoftheobjectivethatdeterminesthemainKPI.Anindicatorwhichisimportanttogetinabrieftimeperiod,andwhichrequiresdailyupdatesinordertomonitorrealtimeefficiencyoftheutilizedlever.Inconclusion:4recommendationsThedesiretomeasuretheeffectivenessofcommercialcommunicationisasoldasadvertising.Themarkethascapitalizedimportantcontributions,butonlywhenalargenumberofbusinesseswillbewillingtofeedandusebigdata,clearanswerswillbecomeavailable.Meanwhile,wecanmakegood-verygood-useofmetricsandtoolsatourdisposal.AsfarasIamconcerned,hereare4recommendationsthatIwouldinsertinbusinessBestPractices:

q Investments?allitemsincludedq Returns?simultaneouslymonitoringbothsalesandbrandingq Time?let'smakeitthebestallyofourcommunicationq KeyPerformanceIndicators?let’sdifferentiatethem.

Afewforthemanagement,inordertoassesstheachievementofglobalobjectives.Manymorefortechnicians,toevaluatetheefficiencyofeachleverage.

ThankyouforyourattentionandbestwishestoallPaolaFurlanettoDec2016(1)ontime:postbyLucaRosati,‘Playingwithtime.Timeanduserexperiencedesign’;JosephPineandKimKorn,‘InfinitePossibility’.0comments