Tim Stonor Predictive analytics using Space Syntax technology

Predictive analyticsFor urban planning, building design & spatial economics

Future Cities WorkshopSingapore

11th March 2014

Tim StonorArchitect & Urban Planner

Tim StonorPredictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics

1. Resource availability Scarce & diminishing

3. Future visioning Fanciful & un-evidenced

6. Consultation Problematic & uncollaborative

7. Decision-taking Hesitant

5. Impact forecasting Inaccurate

4. Financial backing Short-term & unaccountable

Urban planning in the 21st Century Some challenges

2. Data integration Overloaded & disconnected

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

y = .784x + 2.147, R-squared: .589

Spatial accessibility

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

y = 1.235x + 1.048, R-squared: .702

Research shows that 60-80% of movement flows are due to the structure of the network, measured by spatial accessibility. 研究表明 60-80%的交通受到网络结构影响，可采用空间可达性来度量。

More accessible places get more movement.更可达的场所吸引更多交通流量。

Key discovery #1 Layout influences human behaviour关键发现＃ 1 布局影响人类行为

Suzhou 苏州

6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10

Y = .013 + .394 * X; R^2 = .722Spatial Accessibility

72% correlation72％的相关性

Courtesy of The TLRN Central London Pedestrian Study by Atkins

Key discovery #2 Spatial layout distributes land use关键发现＃ 2 的空间布局分配土地使用

Area 5

Area 6

Area 3

Area 2

Perth, Australia 澳大利亚珀斯Property crime analysis财产犯罪分析

Key discovery #3 Spatial layout influences crime & safety关键发现 #3 空间布局影响犯罪与安全

Value of property security 财产安全的价值

UrbanBuzz城市网站

Centre vitality

中心活力

Street quality

街道品质

Property value

房地产价值

Residential security

住宅区安全

Personal safety

个人安全

Urban layout　城市布局

Key discovery #4 Spatial layout determines land value关键发现 #4 空间布局决定土地价值

Connected layout 建议的布局Dislocated layout 破碎的布局In

High accessibility score 高通达性Low accessibility score 低通达性

Dislocated layout破碎的布局

Connected layout建议的布局

Difference差别

IRR内部收益率

11% 14% + 27%

NPV净现值

£47 Million £ 145 Million + £98 Million

Disconnected grids increase travel emissions间断的路网增加旅行的排放量

Key discovery #5 Spatial layout affects carbon footprint

关键发现＃ 5 空间布局影响碳痕迹

The continuously connected city The largest object of human creation

A natural asset with enormous intrinsic value

Transaction machine

A process of scientific co-creation　　　共同创新互利的过程

UCL Space SyntaxFundamental research

Teaching

Technology development

Space Syntax LimitedConsulting

Studio

Academy

Laboratory

SoftwareWorks

People Ideas Questions

Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing

Trafalgar Square, London

Trafalgar Square, London Low levels of space use

Trafalgar Square, London Pedestrian survey

Trafalgar Square, London Spatial accessibility model

Spatial Accessibility

Before After

Trafalgar Square, London Spatial accessibility analysis

Trafalgar Square, London Artist’s impression

First day of opening Trafalgar Square, London

Trafalgar Square, London New central staircase

Observe Explain

Forecast Deliver

Trafalgar Square, London Spatial design process

Nottingham Old Market Square

Millennium Bridge, London

Olympic Park London 2012

London 2012 Olympic Games Opening Ceremony

Elephant & Castle Southern Crossing

Cycling Science-based creation of cycling policy and design proposals

Weekday

Weekend

Existing cycle infrastructure around Euston station

Observed cyclist flows around Euston station (weekday and weekend)

Spatial accessibility model, Euston station

2Urban expansion Spatial accessibility in 2013

Railway station

2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km

111111111

111111111000000000

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2Urban expansion Spatial accessibility in 2038

Railway station

2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km

111111111

111111111000000000

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Darwin, Australia CBD Expansion

لجدة المدني المركز مشروعالموقع تحليل

الخطة مكوناتالرئيسية

Jeddah Waterfront 500Ha masterplan

Consultation

Abu Dhabi 阿布扎比

Dubai 迪拜

Sharjah 沙迦

United Arab Emirates阿拉伯联合大公国

Strategic planning Using spatial network as the foundation　策略性规划使用空间网络作为基础　　

Informal settlement Evidence-based, adaptable regeneration plans　

临时定居点基于论证的，有适应力的再生规划　　

Jeddah – Saudi Arabia 吉达 - 沙特阿拉伯

High intervention 高程度介入

Low intervention 低程度介入　　

Existing Changchun　长春 Proposed growth　规划深入

medium

Approx. 40km

Strategic planning Spatial distribution of urbanisation策略性规划城市化的空间分布　　　

Changping 昌平

Shunyi 顺义

Huairou 怀柔

Miyun 密云

Pinggu 平谷

Tongzhou 通州

Daxing 大兴Fangshan 房山

Mentougou 门头沟

Beijing

中国北京 Beijing - China

Urban sprawl Integrated urban-rural development城市扩张城乡综合发展　　　

500kmScale of journey

100km 50km

UK Spatial Infrastructure ModelDescribing spatial accessibility from high in red, then orange and yellow to low in green then blue.

0. Spatial Layout 空间结构

1. Movement 人们的活动

2. Land Use 土地使用

3. Crime & Safety

4. Land Value

5. Carbon Emissions

Integrated Urban Model

People1. Behaviour2. Wealth3. Health4. Safety5. Cultural identity

Resources1. Materials2. Energy3. Finance4. Utilities supply5. Waste handling

Urban Form1. Spatial Form2. Physical Form- capacity- location- condition- value

dActions

dDecision-taking

Environment1. Sun 2. Wind3. Rainfall4. Groundform5. Biodiversity

Data Mapping

Data Quantification

Visualise Urban Data CollectiveIntegrated platform for performance dataHow is the place working?

dUncertainty

dIdeas for changeOpportunities & Constraints

Creation of Conceptual Options

Conceive Urban StrategyIntegrated urban policy and practiceWhat are the opportunities for change?

dConsultationForecast Urban Forecast ModelScenario testing & performance forecastingHow will performance be affected by change?

Simulation & Optimisation of Options

Development of Preferred Option

dAwarenessExplain Urban Performance ModelIntegrated urban diagnostics: spatial analyticsWhy does the place work the way it does?

Urban Diagnosis

Issues, Objectives & Principles

Urban Baseline Study

Urban Impact Analysis

User interface/state

Behaviour change

Decision groups

Data inputs

IntegratedUrbanModel

2. Data integration Spatial Accessibility Framework

3. Future visioning Dynamic Urban Modelling

6. Consultation Engaging people around “place”

7. Decision-taking Bold but risk reduced

5. Impact forecasting Focus on human transaction

4. Financial backing Urban Value analysis

Urban planning in the 21st Century Addressing challenges

1. Resource availability Integrated Places Strategy

Tim Stonor Architect & Urban Planner

t.stonor@spacesyntax.com@Tim_Stonor

www.spacesyntax.com

Sims AveGeylang Road

MacPherson Road

Tim Stonor Predictive analytics using Space Syntax technology

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