Post on 20-May-2020
Third Quarter 2014 Conference CallOctober 29, 2014
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain information contained in this presentation constitutes forward-looking statements for purposes of the
safe harbor provisions of The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. There are a variety of factors,
many of which are beyond our control, that affect our operations, performance, business strategy and
results and could cause our actual results and experience to differ materially from the assumptions,
expectations and objectives expressed in any forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not
limited to: our ability to implement successfully our strategic initiatives; actions and initiatives taken by both
current and potential competitors; increases in the prices paid for raw materials and energy; a labor strike,
work stoppage or other similar event; deteriorating economic conditions or an inability to access capital
markets; work stoppages, financial difficulties or supply disruptions at our suppliers or customers; the
adequacy of our capital expenditures; our failure to comply with a material covenant in our debt obligations;
potential adverse consequences of litigation involving the company; as well as the effects of more general
factors such as changes in general market, economic or political conditions or in legislation, regulation or
public policy. Additional factors are discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission,
including our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K.
In addition, any forward-looking statements represent our estimates only as of today and should not be
relied upon as representing our estimates as of any subsequent date. While we may elect to update
forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so, even
if our estimates change.
2
Third Quarter Highlights
3
• Record Q3 segment operating income of $520 million(a), up 21%
– Record North America Q3 SOI up 30% to $210 million
– Europe, Middle East and Africa Q3 SOI up 57% to $181 million
– Global SOI margin of 11.2%(a) for the quarter, best in more than a decade
– Adjusted EPS of 87 cents per share(b)
• Year-to-date segment operating income of $1.4 billion(a), up 17%
• Company expects 2014 earnings growth near high end of 10-15%
range
(a) See Segment Operating Income and margin reconciliation in Appendix on page 29.(b) See Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share reconciliation in Appendix on pages 25.
Our strategy continues to deliver strong earnings performance
$372
$917
$1,368 $1,248
$1,580
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Delivering Results
4
Segment Operating Income(a)
2009 to 2013$ in millions
(a) See Segment Operating Income reconciliation in Appendix on page 29.
Strategy validated – delivering improved operating results
US Chinese Tire Tariff Speculation &Impact on North America Replacement Volume
5
Total US
Industry(a)
+3%
Chinese
Imports(b)
+25%
All Other
Tires(c)
-4%
In a “sell-out” market
that is growing 1-2% (~ miles driven)
(a) Total US Industry as reported by the Rubber Manufacturers Association, Sept 9, 2014
(b) Chinese tire imports into the US as reported by the US Department of Commerce for July/August with September a Goodyear estimate
(c) Mathematical difference between (a) and (b)
(d) Goodyear North America Replacement includes Consumer and Commercial for U.S. and Canada
• Q3 Replacement volume down -4%
• Channels stocking Chinese tires well above
market demand (i.e., “sell out”)
• Our strategy not to chase volume with price
• Affecting economy and mid-tier segments
• Industry effect will linger until excess
inventory can be sold
Year-on-year sell-in volume % growth
Q3 Industry Consumer Replacement “Sell-In” Q3 Goodyear Replacement Volume(d)
Chinese tire tariff speculation impacting industry & Goodyear “sell-in” demand
North America HVA Demand
6
• Increasing demand for our premium branded products outpacing
supply
• Constraints limiting our ability to offset negative volume impact of potential
tariff in economy & mid-tier segments
• A tire is not a tire: premium tires more complex to manufacture
• Actions to address increasing demand for our HVA tires:
• Current growth capex plan will increase capacity (2014+)
• Leveraging our global HVA footprint (2015+)
• Building capacity with announced new Americas plant (2017+)
More HVA supply in North America to grow profitably in 2015 and beyond
Strategy Roadmap
7
Our Destination - Creating Sustainable Value
Industry
MegaTrends
Where We Are
Key Strategies Key How To’s
Executing Plan
Innovation Leader
Record Earnings
Value Creating
Improving Volume
US Pension Fully Funded
Top Line / Bottom Line Growth
First with Customers
Innovation Leaders
Leader in Targeted Segments
1. North America: Grow Profitably
2. Asia: Win in China / Grow Asia
3. EMEA / LA: Return to Historical
Profit
Market-Back Innovation Excellence
Sales & Marketing Excellence
Operational Excellence
Enabling Investments
Top Talent / Top Teams
Competitively Advantaged
Profitable thru Economic Cycle
Cash Flow Positive
Investment Grade
Our Destination
8
2014Near high end of
+10-15% range
2015+10-15% SOI growth
2016+10-15% SOI growthSegment Operating Income(a)
$ in millions
(a) See Segment Operating Income reconciliation in Appendix on page 29.
Our strategy gives us confidence in the future
Plan to repurchase up to $150 million of our common stock in Q4
$372
$917
$1,368 $1,248
$1,580
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015T 2016T
Financial Update
Third Quarter 2014
Income Statement
(a) See Segment Operating Income and Margin reconciliation in Appendix on page 29.(b) See Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share reconciliation in Appendix on pages 25 and 26.
In millions, except EPS
10
September 30, September 30,
2014 2013 Change
Units 41.9 42.6 (2)%
Net Sales 4,657$ 5,002$ (7)%
Gross Margin 24.5% 21.1% 3.4 pts
SAG 653$ 686$ (5)%
Segment Operating Income(a) 520$ 431$ 21%
Segment Operating Margin(a) 11.2% 8.6% 2.6 pts
Goodyear Net Income 161$ 173$
Less: Preferred Stock Dividends -$ 7$
Goodyear Net Income Available to Common
Shareholders161$ 166$
Goodyear Net Income Available to Common
Shareholders - Per Share of Common Stock
Basic 0.58$ 0.67$
Diluted 0.58$ 0.62$
Cash Dividends Declared Per Common Share 0.06$ 0.05$
Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share (b)
0.87$ 0.68$
Three Months Ended
1111
Third Quarter 2014
Segment Operating Results
$ In millions
$431 ($16) $14
$98 ($112)$135
($75)
($31)$76 $520
Raw
Materials(a)
Cost
Savings Inflation(b)Volume
Un-
absorbed
Fixed
CostPrice / Mix
Other(c)Currency
Q3
2013
Q3
2014
($2) +$60($14)
+$89
+21%
OTR more
than
explains
variance
(a) Raw material variance of $98 million excludes raw material cost saving measures of $71 million, which are included in Cost Savings above(b) Estimated impact of inflation (wages, utilities, energy, transportation and other)(c) Includes $23 million benefit from lower incentive compensation, non-recurrence of $20 million in 2013 USW agreement charges, $16 million savings from
Amiens plant closure and $14 million of US pension expense savings
(a) Working capital represents accounts receivable and inventories, less accounts payable – trade.(b) See Total Debt and Net Debt reconciliation in Appendix on page 30.
Third Quarter 2014
Balance Sheet
$ In millions
12
September 30, June 30, December 31, September 30,2014 2014 2013 2013
Cash and cash equivalents 1,744$ 1,637$ 2,996$ 2,500$
Accounts receivable 3,021 2,841 2,435 3,254Inventories 2,924 3,130 2,816 2,944Accounts payable - trade (2,827) (3,097) (3,097) (3,084)
Working capital(a)
3,118$ 2,874$ 2,154$ 3,114$
Total debt(b)
6,855$ 6,762$ 6,249$ 6,542$
Net debt(b)
5,111$ 5,125$ 3,253$ 4,042$
Free Cash Flow from Operations
$ In millions
13
(a) Pension Expense is the net periodic pension cost before curtailments, settlements and termination benefits as reported in the pension-related note
in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
(b) See Free Cash Flow from Operations reconciliation in Appendix on page 31.
Trailing Twelve
Months Ended
2014 2013 September 30, 2014
Net Income 199$ 195$ 649$
Depreciation and Amortization 182 182 736
Change in Working Capital (362) (284) (50)
Pension Expense (a)
36 65 196
Other 225 102 329
Capital Expenditures (193) (241) (1,068)
Free Cash Flow from Operations (non-GAAP) (b) 87$ 19$ 792$
Three Months Ended
September 30,
Shareholder Return Program
14
• September dividend payment: 20% increase over
prior quarter to $0.06 per share
• Share repurchase program ($450 million 2014-2016)
– $30 million Q3; $83 million YTD
– Plan to purchase up to $150 million in Q4
Continued focus on shareholder returns
Third Quarter 2014
Segment Results
In millions
15
2014 2013 Change 2014 2013 Change
Units 15.2 15.8 (3.8%) Units 16.4 16.7 (1.3%)
Net Sales $2,057 $2,186 (5.9%) Net Sales $1,618 $1,752 (7.6%)
Operating Income $210 $161 30.4% Operating Income $181 $115 57.4%
Margin 10.2% 7.4% Margin 11.2% 6.6%
2014 2013 Change 2014 2013 Change
Units 4.3 4.5 (5.2%) Units 6.0 5.6 6.8%
Net Sales $451 $527 (14.4%) Net Sales $531 $537 (1.1%)
Operating Income $49 $89 (44.9%) Operating Income $80 $66 21.2%
Margin 10.9% 16.9% Margin 15.1% 12.3%
North America Europe, Middle East and Africa
Latin America Asia Pacific
16
2015 Outlook Preliminary Planning Assumptions
FX headwind (similar impact
as 2014)
Venezuela uncertainty
Neutral OTR
Potential release of US tax
valuation allowance
• Tax rate if released: 30-35% of
global pre-tax income, no US cash
taxes for ~5 years
Global volume growth of 1-2%
Positive price mix vs. raw
materials (~$50-$100 million)
Cost savings
• Operational Excellence
• Amiens closure / EMEA Farm
tire business exit
$1.2 billion capex
Reaffirming 10-15% SOI growth target for 2015;
Planning assumptions to be updated in year-end call
Positive Drivers Other Factors
$372
$917
$1,368 $1,248
$1,580
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015T 2016T
Our Destination
17
2014Near high end of
+10-15% range
2015+10-15% SOI growth
2016+10-15% SOI growthSegment Operating Income(a)
$ in millions
(a) See Segment Operating Income reconciliation in Appendix on page 29.
Our strategy gives us confidence in the future
Plan to repurchase up to $150 million of our common stock in Q4
Appendix
2014 Key Segment Operating Income Drivers
Driver 2014 FY vs 2013vs. July
OutlookComments
Global Volume Flat to +1% • Consistent with YTD performance
Price/Mix vs. Raw Materials Slightly Negative N/C • Assumes neutral Q4
Overhead Absorption ~$50-75 million N/C • Trending to mid-point of range
Net Cost Savings ~$130-$150 million
• Cost savings net of inflation offset
by incremental investments in
advertising and R&D
Foreign Exchange ~($100) million • Assumes current spot rates
Other Tire-Related ~$15 million -
Start-up Costs Neutral N/C• Brazil modernization costs offset
China start-up benefit
Amiens Closure ~$50 million• $75 million annualized savings,
including exit of EMEA Farm tire
Pension Expense Savings(a) ~$90 million N/C• Pension expense savings net of
incremental 401(k) contributions19
(a) Global pension expense savings. Excludes savings impact related to corporate associates (outside of Segment Operating Income)
2014 OutlookOther Financial Assumptions
2014 FY Assumptionvs. July
Outlook
Interest Expense $415 - $435 million N/C
Financing Fees ~$60 million N/C
Income Tax~20% of international Segment
Operating Income
Depreciation &
Amortization~$725 million N/C
Global Pension
Expense~$150-$175 million N/C
Global Pension Cash
Contributions~$1.3 billion in total contributions(a) N/C
Working Capital Not a significant source or use N/C
Capital Expenditures ~$0.9 billion N/C
20(a) Cash contributions include $1.2 billion for hourly U.S. pension plan prefunding
$942
$207
$689
$2,356
$1,017
($321) ($295)
$712
($115)
$549
$1,822
$327
($985)
($444)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3 YTD
Price/Mix Raw Materials
(e)
(d)
(c)
(b)
Price/Mix Improvements
(a) Reflects impact on Segment Operating Income. Raw Materials include the impact of raw material cost savings measures.(b) Raw material variance of $549 million includes raw material cost savings measures of $136 million. (c) Raw material variance of $1,822 million includes raw material cost savings measures of $177 million.(d) Raw material variance of $327 million includes raw material cost savings measures of $249 million.(e) Raw material variance of ($985) million includes raw material cost savings measures of $228 million.(f) Raw material variance of ($444) million includes raw material cost savings measures of $190 million.
Price/Mix vs. Raw Materials(a)
$ in millions
(f)
21
Third Quarter 2014
Liquidity Profile
(a) Total liquidity comprised of $1,744 million cash and cash equivalents, as well as $1,982 million of unused availability under various credit agreements.(b) Includes $272 million of cash in Venezuela denominated in bolivares fuertes at 12.0 bolivares fuertes per U.S. dollar at September 30, 2014.
22
Cash &
Equivalents(b)
Available
Credit Lines
Liquidity Profile
$3.7(a)
$ In billions
$1.7
$2.0
Note: Based on September 30, 2014 balance sheet values and excludes notes payable, capital leases and other domestic and foreign debt.
(a) At September 30, 2014, the total amount outstanding under the European revolving credit facility was $353 million (€280 million). Letters of credit issued
as of this date totaled $4 million (€3 million).
(b) At September 30, 2014, our borrowing base, and therefore our availability, under the U.S. revolving credit facility was $437 million below the facility’s
stated amount of $2.0 billion. At September 30, 2014, there were no borrowings outstanding under the first lien revolving credit facility. Letters of credit
issued totaled $377 million at September 30, 2014.
(c) At September 30, 2014, the amounts available and utilized under the Pan-European securitization program of $567 million (€450 million) totaled $348
million (€276 million).
Third Quarter 2014
Maturity Schedule
$ In millions
23
$353
$1,858
$1,264
$900
$700
$150
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ≥ 2023
Undrawn Credit Lines
Funded Debt$2,077 (c)
$504 (a)
$2,000 (b)
2014 Full-Year Industry Outlook
24
October Full-Year
2014 Guidance
July Full-Year
2014 Guidance
NA EMEA NA EMEA
Consumer
Replacement+4-5% +3-4% +2-3% +3-4%
Consumer OE +4-5% +2-3% +2-3% +0-1%
Commercial
Replacement+9-10% +1-2% +3-4% +0-2%
Commercial OE +10-11% -3 – -4% +2-3% -3 – -4%
$ in millions (except EPS)
25
Third Quarter 2014 Significant Items(After Tax and Minority Interest)
Net Sales 4,657$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 4,657$
Cost of Goods Sold 3,516 - - - - - 3,516
Gross Margin 1,141$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 1,141
SAG 653 -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 653
Rationalizations 15 - - (15) - - -
Interest Expense 108 - - - - - 108
Other Expense 66 - (16) - (7) (3) 40
Pre-tax Income 299$ -$ 16$ 15$ 7$ 3$ 340
Taxes 100 (47) - 4 - - 57
Minority Interest 38 - - 2 1 - 41
Goodyear Net Income 161$ 47$ 16$ 9$ 6$ 3$ 242$
EPS (Diluted) 0.58$ 0.17$ 0.06$ 0.03$ 0.02$ 0.01$ 0.87$
As
Reported
As
Adjusted
Rationalizations,
Asset Write-offs,
and Accelerated
Depreciation
Charges
Discrete Tax
Items
Charges for
Labor Claims
Related to a
Closed Facility
in Europe
Net Losses on
Asset Sales
Government
Investigation
in Africa
$ in millions (except EPS)
26
Third Quarter 2013 Significant Items(After Tax and Minority Interest)
Net Sales 5,002$ -$ -$ 5,002$
Cost of Goods Sold 3,946 (5) - 3,941
Gross Margin 1,056$ 5$ -$ 1,061
SAG 686 -$ -$ 686
Rationalizations 21 (21) - -
Interest Expense 100 - - 100
Other Expense - - 3 3
Pre-tax Income 249$ 26$ (3)$ 272
Taxes 54 4 (1) 57
Minority Interest 22 3 - 25
Goodyear Net Income 173$ 19$ (2)$ 190$
EPS (Diluted) 0.62$ 0.07$ (0.01)$ 0.68$
As
Reported
Rationalizations,
Asset Write-offs,
and Accelerated
Depreciation
Charges
Net Gains on
Asset SalesAs
Adjusted
27
September 30, 2014 YTD Significant Items(After Tax and Minority Interest)
Net Sales 13,782$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 13,782$
Cost of Goods Sold 10,566 - (3) - (38) - - - 3 10,528
Gross Margin 3,216$ -$ 3$ -$ 38$ -$ -$ -$ (3)$ 3,254
SAG 2,018 -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 2,018
Rationalizations 80 - (80) - - - - - - -
Interest Expense 315 - - - - - - - 8 323
Other Expense 242 (155) - - - (20) (16) (4) 9 56
Pre-tax Income 561$ 155$ 83$ -$ 38$ 20$ 16$ 4$ (20)$ 857
Taxes 168 25 8 (47) - - - - (7) 147
Minority Interest 70 - 17 - 2 - - - - 89
Goodyear Net Income 323$ 130$ 58$ 47$ 36$ 20$ 16$ 4$ (13)$ 621$
EPS (Diluted) 1.15$ 0.47$ 0.21$ 0.17$ 0.13$ 0.07$ 0.06$ 0.01$ (0.05)$ 2.22$
As
Reported
Net Venezuela
Currency
Remeasurement
Loss
Pension
Curtailments &
Settlements
Rationalizations,
Asset Write-offs,
and Acclerated
Depreciation
Charges
Settlement of
Indirect Tax
Claims
Government
Investigation in
Africa
Discrete Tax
Items
Charges for
Labor Claims
Related to a
Closed Facility
in Europe
Net Losses on
Asset SalesAs
Adjusted
28
September 30, 2013 YTD Significant Items(After Tax and Minority Interest)
Net Sales 14,749$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 14,749$
Cost of Goods Sold 11,732 - (15) - - - - 11,717
Gross Margin 3,017$ -$ 15$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 3,032
SAG 2,022 -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ -$ 2,022
Rationalizations 41 - (41) - - - - -
Interest Expense 287 - - - - - - 287
Other Expense 112 (115) - (6) 6 - 9 6
Pre-tax Income 555$ 115$ 56$ 6$ (6)$ -$ (9)$ 717
Taxes 136 23 7 - (1) 5 (2) 168
Minority Interest 25 - 7 - - 1 (1) 32
Goodyear Net Income 394$ 92$ 42$ 6$ (5)$ (6)$ (6)$ 517$
EPS (Diluted) 1.43$ 0.33$ 0.15$ 0.02$ (0.02)$ (0.02)$ (0.02)$ 1.87$
As
Reported
As
Adjusted
Charges for
Labor Claims
Related to a
Closed Facility
in Europe
Net Gains on
Asset Sales
Discrete Tax
Items
Insurance
Recoveries from
Thailand Flood
Net Venezuela
Currency
Remeasurement
Loss
Rationalizations,
Asset Write-offs,
and Acclerated
Depreciation
Charges
Reconciliation for Segment Operating Income / Margin
$ In millions
29
2014 2013 2014 2013 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
Total Segment Operating Income 520$ 431$ 1,353$ 1,161$ 1,580$ 1,248$ 1,368$ 917$ 372$
Rationalizations (15) (21) (80) (41) (58) (175) (103) (240) (227)
Interest expense (108) (100) (315) (287) (392) (357) (330) (316) (311)
Other expense (66) - (242) (112) (97) (139) (73) (186) (40)
Asset write-offs & accelerated depreciation - (5) (3) (15) (23) (20) (50) (15) (43)
Corporate incentive compensation plans (23) (34) (69) (79) (108) (69) (70) (71) (41)
Corporate pension curtailments/settlements - - (33) - - 1 (15) - -
Intercompany profit elimination 5 (5) (4) (5) 4 (1) (5) (14) (13)
Retained expenses of divested operations (4) (7) (11) (17) (24) (14) (29) (20) (17)
Other (10) (10) (35) (50) (69) (34) (75) (47) (37)
Income (Loss) before Income Taxes 299$ 249$ 561$ 555$ 813$ 440$ 618$ 8$ (357)$
United States and Foreign Taxes 100 54 168 136 138 203 201 172 7
Less: Minority Shareholders Net Income 38 22 70 25 46 25 74 52 11
Goodyear Net Income (Loss) 161$ 173$ 323$ 394$ 629$ 212$ 343$ (216)$ (375)$
Sales $4,657 $5,002 $13,782 $14,749 $19,540 $20,992 $22,767 $18,832 $16,301
Return on Sales 3.5% 3.5% 2.3% 2.7% 3.2% 1.0% 1.5% (1.1)% (2.3)%
Total Segment Operating Margin 11.2% 8.6% 9.8% 7.9% 8.1% 5.9% 6.0% 4.9% 2.3%
Three Months
Ended
September 30,
Twelve Months Ended
December 31,
Nine Months
Ended
September 30,
Reconciliation for Total Debt and Net Debt
$ In millions
30
September 30, June 30, December 31, September 30,
2014 2014 2013 2013
Long term debt and capital leases 6,719$ 6,677$ 6,162$ 6,366$
Notes payable and overdrafts 38 7 14 44
Long term debt and capital leases due within one year 98 78 73 132
Total debt 6,855$ 6,762$ 6,249$ 6,542$
Less: Cash and cash equivalents 1,744 1,637 2,996 2,500
Net debt 5,111$ 5,125$ 3,253$ 4,042$
Reconciliation for Free Cash Flow from Operations
a) Working capital represents total changes in accounts receivable, inventories and accounts payable – trade.
b) Pension expense is the net periodic pension cost before curtailments, settlements and termination benefits as reported in the pension-related note in the Notes to
Consolidated Financial Statements.
c) Other includes amortization and write-off of debt issuance costs, deferred income taxes, net pension curtailments and settlements, net rationalization charges, net
(gains) losses on asset sales, net Venezuela currency remeasurement loss, customer prepayments and government grants, insurance proceeds, compensation
and benefits less pension expense, other current liabilities, and other assets and liabilities.31
Trailing Twelve
Months Ended
($ in millions)
Sept. 30,
2014
June 30,
2014
March 31,
2014
Dec. 31,
2013
Sept. 30,
2013
Sept. 30,
2014
Net Income (Loss) 199$ 232$ (38)$ 256$ 195$ 649$
Depreciation and Amortization 182 188 183 183 182 736
Change in Working Capital (a)
(362) (18) (590) 920 (284) (50)
Pension Expense (b)
36 38 50 72 65 196
Other (c)
225 86 111 (93) 102 329
Capital Expenditures (193) (212) (229) (434) (241) (1,068)
Free Cash Flow from Operations (non-GAAP) 87$ 314$ (513)$ 904$ 19$ 792$
Capital Expenditures 193 212 229 434 241 1,068
Pension Contributions & Direct Payments (35) (34) (1,223) (90) (79) (1,382)
Rationalization Payments (50) (83) (36) (12) (17) (181)
Cash Flow from Operating Activities (GAAP) 195$ 409$ (1,543)$ 1,236$ 164$ 297$
The amounts below are calculated from the Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows except for pension expense, which is as reported in the
pension-related note in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
Three Months Ended