WEF NexusAmulti-criteriadecisionevaluationofpolicyinstrumentsontheLitaniRiverBasin

JadTahaElBaba

ThesisAdvisor:Dr.NadimFarajallaThesisCo-Advisor:Dr.HassanHarajli

10/08/2016

WEF NexusAmulti-criteriadecisionanalysisofPolicyInstrumentsontheLitaniRiverBasin

•ResourcePolicies&Planingbecamemypassion•IpreviouslystudiedenergyscenariosforLebanonusingMCDA

•IwasintroducedtotheNexusconceptwhileworkingatIFI

•TowhatconcernpolicymakingwithintheNexusresourcesdecisionshouldn'tbetakeninisolation

•Itisanareawhereadequateresearchwasstilllacking

•IwasconvincedthatMCDAisaclearfitforWEFNexusMethodology

•IwantedtoapplymyideainLebanon,theLitaniwasthecasestudythatwasmostimpactful

Background

Food

•TheagriculturalsectorinLebanonsuffersfromdecreaseinproductivity,recentlybeenaggravatedbytheSyrianconflict.

• Productioncostshaveincreased,farmersareforcedtobuymoreexpensiveLebaneseorimportedagriculturalinputs

Water

•Theuseofwaterresourcesisapproachingunsustainablelevels

•Droughtoccurrencemorefrequentoverthelast40years,incidentsgettingcloserintime

•ApreviewofwhatitisinstoreforLebanonunderaclimatechangescenario

Energy

•Lebaneseconsumershavetopayadoubleelectricitybill

•Theelectricitysectorisheavilysubsidised

•EDLrunningonadeficitformanyyearsmakingitunabletoinvestinnewpowerplantsandmeetthegrowingdemand.

WEF Nexus

Water • Energyisusedintransportation,treatment,desalinationanddistribution.• 7%ofcommercialenergyproductionisusedgloballyformanagingtheworld’sfreshwatersupply.

• Thefoodsectorissignificantactorinaffectingwaterquality.

Food • Intheagriculturesector60-80%percentoftotalglobalfreshwaterwithdrawalsareforirrigation,makingitthelargestuserofwater• Thefoodsupplychainconsumeabout30%oftotalglobalenergy.Energyisrequiredtoproduce,transportanddistributefood• Petroleumhasasignificantimportanceinfoodproductionthroughfuelinputs(suchastransportandcoolingfacilities)andproducts(suchasfertilisers).

• Foodproductscanalsobeinputsforenergyproduction,biofuelsgenerate1.8%oftheglobalelectricityproduced

Energy • Thermalpowerplantsuselargeamountsofwaterforcooling• Hydropowerplantsusesignificantquantitiesoflandandinterferewithexistingwaterflows,sedimentload,nutrientflowsandwaterquality

• Significantquantitiesofwaterarealsorequiredforotherenergyprocessingactivities,suchasrefiningoilproductsormanufacturingsyntheticfuels.

• Energyisusedbythefoodsectorforirrigation,harvestingandprocessing.

Thesis Objective

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergy

• UsingtheMCDAmethodology,theproposedframeworkwillbetailoredtolocalconditions,takesintoconsiderationdataavailabilityespeciallyinadevelopingcountrycontext

Propose a WEF Nexus Assessment Tool01

• TheLitaniRiverisaninterestingcasefortheWEFNexus,itisthemainsourceofHydroelectricpower,itfeesalargeareaofirrigatedlandandisamainsourceofdomesticwater

Apply the Framework on the Litani River Basin02

• Engageasmanystakeholders,introducesystemthinkingintopublicresourceplanningandrecommendpolicyimplementationandinstitutionalreforms

Question the decision making process of the Lebanese Government 03

Nexus Methodologies

• EnergyAssessmenttools:TheMESSAGE,MARKALandLEAP

• WaterAssessmenttools:WEAPandPODIUM(waterscarcityandfoodsecurity)

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyFragmented Decision Making Analytical Tools1

• CLEW,LCAandFAONexusMethodology

• Thesemethodologieswerenotusedinthisstudyforthefollowingreasons:

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyNexus Methodologies Assessment Tools2

a. Focusononeresourceandignoretheothersb. Evaluationsarestrategiclongtermandarenotfitforpolicyimplementationc. Examiningeachmethodologyistimeconsumingd. Datarequiremente. Costlyf. NotfitfortheinterdisciplinaryrequirementsofaNexusMethodologyg. Nostakeholderengagement

Literaturereview

Multi-Criteria Decision AnalysisLiteraturereview

• EnergyPlanning• WaterPlanning• AgriculturalPlanning

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyMCDA Application2

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyDecision Aiding Tool1

• ThenumberMCDApapers increasedfromsingledigits intheearly90’s tohundredsinthelate2000’s

• Applicationsthatrequirestrategydevelopment,stakeholderengagement,andintegratedenvironmentalassessmentaremoredominant

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyClear Fit for Nexus Assessment 3

• LowDataRequirements• StakeholderEngagements• InterdisciplinaryFlexibility• Tailoredtolocalconditions

Proposed FrameworkMCDANexusMethodology

Input:LiteratureReviewFieldVisitsInterviews

Selecting Policy Instrument1.

Input:LiteratureReviewFieldVisitsInterviewsDataAvailability

Selecting Evaluation Criteria

2.Input:EmpiricalDataQualitativeDataCalculation:MAUTSMART

Evaluation of Policy Instruments4.

Input:StakeholdersEngagement(Surveys)Calculation:AHP

Weighting Evaluation Criteria3.

Input:ResultsCalculation:Highlightweightsofmaincriteria

Sensitivity Analysis5.

Policy Interventions

Objectives

Strategies

Reduce Groundwater pumping Improve Water Quality Increase Return in Agriculture Production

Infrastructure Projects Water Demand Reduction Treat Waste Water Decrease Cost of

Agriculture Input

Canal 800

Leakage Control

Water Storage

Sprinklers & Drip Irrigation

Crop Change

Water Tariffs and Water Meters

CDR WWTP

CDM WWTP

Tax Breaks

Market Access

Solar Pumps

Selecting Policy Instruments LitaniRiverPolicyOptions

Reducing Ground Water PumpingInfrastructureProjects

WatersourcesLitaniriverbasin

31.1%

21.6%23.2%

24.12%

River GroundWater WaterStorage None

CanalforIrrigationfeedingMarjeyounarea110MCM$400M15,000ha60%<hydropower

Canal 8001.

Decreasewatersystemloosesby30%

Leakage Control2.

Theconstructionof2newdamsand6artificialhilllakes135MCM$418M15,0000ha

Water Storage3.

WaterSourcesinLebanon

27.1%

21.5% 15.7%

35.78%

Reducing Ground Water PumpingDemandReductionScenarios

10,000sprinklersanddripirrigationDecreasewaterconsumptionby30.1%

Sprinklers Drip Irrigation1.

HighPricesatFarmGateHighYieldsLowWaterDemand1%decreaseinwater24.1%increaseinnetreturnfromagriculture

Crop Change2.

IncreasePricesfromLitaniIncreasePricefromWaterEstablishmentsDecreaseDemandforwaterinagricultureby5%

Water Tariffs Water Meters

3.

WatersourcesLitaniriverbasin

31.1%

21.6%23.2%

24.12%

River GroundWater WaterStorage None

WaterSourcesinLebanon

27.1%

21.5% 15.7%

35.78%

Improve Water QualityWasterWaterTreatmentPlants

WWTPCDM WWTPCDR

Theconstructionof6WasteWaterTreatmentPlant$9.94M14,840m3/day51,550(2005estimate)people11towns

CDM WWTP Plan1.Theconstructionof7WasteWaterTreatmentPlant$105M118,530m3/day446,000(2005estimate)people75towns

CDR WWTP Plan2.

TreatedWater UntreatedWater

Regional Average

Increase Return in Agricultural InputDecreaseCostofAgriculturalInput

Remove5%customsTariffsfromAgricultureinput:Fertilisers,Seeds,Machinery

Tax Breaks1.

TheconstructionofnewCOOPsIncreasePriceatfarmgateby10%

Market Access2.

15,000newSolarPumpsSubsidise10%oftheirinitialcost(customtariffsandsoftloans)

Solar Pumps3.

20%IncreaseinAgriculturalInput

58%Accesstonaturalresources

wascausedby:50% Decrease Yield

Selecting Evaluation Criteria

Social

• Employment• SocialAcceptability• LandUseChange

Cost

• CapitalCost• ValueofAgProduce/AnnualCost

• UnitofIrrigatedLand/AnnualCost

Energy

• ElectricityAffordability• EnergyImports• EnergyConsumed/IrrigatedLand

• FossilEnergyConsumed/IrrigatedLand

Water

• WaterAffordability• GroundWaterBudget• WaterQuality• WaterConsumed/IrrigatedLand

Food

• ChangeinIncomefromAg/AgLand

• FoodImports• Yield/WaterConsumed• FossilEnergy/AmountofCropsProduced

Evaluation of Policy Instruments DataAcquisition

LandAreaperCropLandAreaperCroppereachirrigation

technique

Agricultural Activity

PriceofEnergypersourceEnergyConsumptionperwatersource

Energy Characteristic

PricesatthefarmgateWaterDemandperCropCropYieldsCostofProduction

Crop Characteristic

PriceofwaterpersourceWater Characteristic

ResultsInfrastructureProjects

ResultsDemandReduction

ResultsTreatingWasteWater

ResultsDecreaseAgriculturalInput

Sensitivity AnalysisCostCriteria

0

15

30

45

60

Canal800 LeakageControl WaterStorage CropChange SprkDripIrrigakon WaterTariffs CDMWWTP CDRWWTP TaxBreaks COOP SolarPumping

13.5828.28

18.7030.73

17.6923.7224.6732.92

13.4923.0622.53

Cost Energy Food Water Social

Sensitivity AnalysisEnergyCriteria

0

20

40

60

80

Canal800 LeakageControl WaterStorage CropChange SprkDripIrrigakon WaterTariffs CDMWWTP CDRWWTP TaxBreaks COOP SolarPumping

46.532.333.1

41.437.729.9

54.133.336.740.3

0.7

Cost Energy Food Water Social

Institutional FrameworkGovernmentEntitiesExpectedRolebyLaw

CDR

Water Establishments

Ministry of Energy & Water

Ministry of Agriculture

Ministry of Health

Ministry of Environment

Litani River Authority

Discussion

• WastefulConsumption• Thisevaluationoffersasystemperspectiveforreducingleakage,specificallyfromEnergyandFoodperspectives• BetterWaterAvailabilityLessEnergyConsumptionandMoreFoodSecurity

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyLeakage control is a priority2

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyWWTP with an alternative Energy Source1

• Free-upwaterconsumptioninagriculturefromenergyprices.PerformsbetterinEnergyImports• CDMperformsworsethanCDRduringtheevaluation,shouldbeincludedinoneWWTPmasterplan

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyIncreasing Water Tariffs3

• Thoughtasasustainablemarketsolutionforreducingconsumption• IntheAgriculturesectorthisprovedtobeharmful,itwouldcauseLessyields,MoreEnergyConsumptionandlowerreturnfromagriculture.

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyMarket Access for Farmers4

• Shouldtakeintoconsiderationenergyconsumedforfoodtransportation• Viableoptionthatincreaseagriculturalproductivitywithlowcostofimplementation

Analysis

Discussion

• Feasibilityofimplementationshouldbeexaminedbutaremainsaseriousoptiontobeconsidered• Performswellinallmaincriteria

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyCrop Change 6

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyTax Breaks5

• Negativelyaffectsemployment,butreliabledataismissinginthisregard• Examinetheneedsoflocalmanufacturingproduction

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergySolar Pumps7

• Mostpopularoptionswhencommunityleadersweresurveyed• Increasegroundwaterpumpingtounsustainablelevelsifsubsidiesaretoogenerous

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyCanal 800 & Water Storage8

• Canal800worstinEnergyCriteriavsbestinFoodCriteriavsGoodWaterBenefits• WaterStoragesamebenefitswithouttheEnergyImplicationsbutwithwaterqualityimplications• Canal800>WaterStorageifsustainablepowersupplyoptionsareprovided

Analysis

ConclusionRecommendation

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyCentral Planning Agency for Water Resources1

• Without Institutional Reforms this evaluation can create dialogue betweengovernmentinstitutions

• Optimalifperformedbyacentralplanningagencythatcantakeintoconsiderationtrade-offsandsynergiesbetweenresources,securitythreatsandsocialconcerns.

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergySystem Thinking Proved to be valuable in resource management2

ConclusionLimitations

• IncludeQualitativeCriteriathatmeasuresthefeasibilityofImplementationforeachpolicy

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyFeasibility of Implementation2

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyThe policy instruments should match in scope1

• LowerscopepolicyinstrumentsscoredworseintheMCDAevaluation

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyStakeholder Engagement: Determining Weights3

• Moreresourcesandmoretime• Hardtoelicitcriteriapreference• Changetheprocessofapproachingstakeholders:roundtablemeetings,groupmeetings,workshops…

ConclusionRecommendationforFutureStudies

• EnergyConsumptionperWaterSource• EnergyConsumptioninFoodprocessing(Transportation,RefrigerationandDistribution)

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyGeneration of local data on:1

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyInclude more policy options:2

FoodFoodWaterWaterisaresourceunderstress

EnergyEnergyExtend the system boundaries towards the National Level3

• RemovingElectricitySubsidies• WaterDesalinationforIrrigation

Thank You