Post on 12-Jan-2016
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The Transition to a Life Beyond Oil Peak Oil, Climate Change and Transition Towns
Oil dependency
Oil currently accountsfor about• 43% of the world’s
total fuel consumption
• 95% of global energy used for transportation.
Oil is used for ……Oil is used for ……
……. almost everything. almost everything
Food production
•95% of our food products require the use of oil, and the supply of food accounts for 21% of Britain’s energy use•3.5 litres of oil is needed to produce half a kilogram of steak Guardian 7th April 2007
Natural Resources
• RENEWABLE RESOURCES:
FARMING – FISHERIES – FORESTRY
SUSTAINABLE IF RESPONSIBLY MANAGED
RENEWAL TIME: YEARS TO DECADES
• NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES:
COAL – OIL – GAS ……..
STRICTLY FINITE, HOWEVER MANAGED
RENEWAL TIME: MILLIONS OF YEARS
What is Peak Oil?
Two typical oil fields
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Forties field UK sector North Sea
Prudhoe Bay, Alaska
Oil production for four countries
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Peak to Peak - 27 years
Peaked in 1999
World discovery peaked 40 years ago
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Past
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Production
When is the global oil peak?
World Production StallsWorld Supply
85.3 mb / day in 2006
85.2 mb/day to Oct 2007
World Demand
85.9 mb/day in 2007 projected to increase to 88 mb/day in 2008Source: International Energy Agency
Oct 2007
Prices rise
Oil producers (98)
Post peak oil producers (64)
Why is oil so important?
How many men does it take to push a car?
•A tank of petrol contains 8,000 human hours work!
•If you worked for 24 hrs/day, 52 weeks a year, 7 days a week that equates to about 4 years’ work.
•(If you imagine pushing a car 250 miles into a hurricane – at 70mph it would take a year for teams of 4 people to be constantly pushing the car to do the same work as one tank full)
•95% of our transport is fuelled by oil. There is no replacement that is as convenient, high density, and safe.
Gas is also a non-renewable resource
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Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil
“Humanity is approaching an unprecedented crisis when not enough oil and gas will be produced to keep industrial civilisation running...”
The opening paragraph of the Independent’s Environment Correspondent Geoffrey Lean on the IEA Report(The Independent July 10th 07)
Common Symptoms Include
•Clammy Palms / Nausea/ Mild Palpitations
•Denial
•A Sense of Bewilderment and Unreality
•An Irrational Grasping at Unfeasible Solutions
•Fear
•Outbreaks of Nihilism / Survivalism.
•Exuberant Optimism.
•“I Always Told You So” Syndrome.
Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil Awareness(Post-petroleum stress disorder)
CO2 levels over the past 60000 years
The need for an urgent response
Energy & Resource UseEnergy & Resource UsePopulation
Pollution Pollution
ClimaxClimaxClimax
Techno-Fantasy
Green-Tech StabilityGreenGreen--Tech StabilityTech Stability
Earthstewardship
Atlantis
Great Grand Great Grand ChildrenChildren
AgricultureAgriculture10.000yrs BP10.000yrs BP
Industrial Industrial RevolutionRevolution
Baby BoomBaby Boom Old GrowthOld GrowthForest Forest
Pre-industrial sustainable culture
Pre-industrial sustainable culture
Historical Time Future Time
Vehicle Transport – are we asking the right questions?
Running the UK’s cars, buses and lorries on biodiesel needs 25.9 million hectares of arable land.
UK has 5.7 million hectares of arable land.
800 million malnourished people in the world.
From: Monbiot, G. (2006) Heat. How to Stop the Planet Burning. Penguin.
Hydrogen?
Running the UK’s cars on hydrogen would necessitate;
• 67 Sizewell B nuclear power stations• a solar array covering every inch of Norfolk
and Derbyshire combined• or a wind farm bigger than the entire
southwest region of England.From “The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan
Relocalisation
“…localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative”
David Fleming
Responses to Peak Oil & Climate Change
P O + C C =
Systems Re-think
• Planned Relocalisation
• Energy Descent Pathways
• Local Resilience
CLIMATE CHANGE
• Climate engineering
• Carbon capture and storage
• International emissions trading
• Climate adaptation
• Nuclear power
PEAK OIL
The need for an urgent response
• Burn everything!relaxed drilling
regulationsbiofuelstar sands and
non-conventional oils
• Resource nationalism
• Resource Wars
1930’s Visions of the Future
We need to address our collective inability to vision the future we actually want….
One possible vision……
What might peak oil look like?
Food - Urban Gardens in CubaDowntown HavanaDowntown Havana
The Modernized Agrarian - Cuba
Rooftop Gardening
Your Town in 2012?
Edible roofs Tree crops
The 4 Recognitions of the Transition The 4 Recognitions of the Transition Movement.Movement.
1.1. Life with less energy is inevitable and it is better to plan Life with less energy is inevitable and it is better to plan for it than be taken by surprisefor it than be taken by surprise
2.2. We have lost the resilience to be able to cope with We have lost the resilience to be able to cope with energy shocksenergy shocks
3.3. We have to act for ourselves and we have to act nowWe have to act for ourselves and we have to act now
4.4. By unleashing the collective genius of the community By unleashing the collective genius of the community we can design ways of living that are more enriching, we can design ways of living that are more enriching, satisfying and connected than the present.satisfying and connected than the present.
The 12 Steps of Transition
Step 1:Step 1:Form a Steering Group and Form a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Design Its Demise from the
Outset.Outset.
Step 2: Raising awareness – talks and films
Step 3: Engaging with existing groups –
Collaborate where possibleCo-operation, not competition.
•Working with BusinessWorking with BusinessOil Vulnerability Analysis.Oil Vulnerability Analysis.
•Working with Local Working with Local Landowners Landowners
Step 4.Step 4.The Official UnleashingThe Official Unleashing
“Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”. Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.
Step 5:Step 5:Form Working GroupsForm Working Groups..
Up and Running in Up and Running in TotnesTotnes
Arts / Food / Energy / Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and of change / Medicine and Health /Health /
HousingHousing
In formation;In formation;Education, Youth, Transport. Education, Youth, Transport.
Step 6:Step 6:Use Open Space Technology.Use Open Space Technology.
Step 7:Step 7:Develop Visible Manifestations of the Develop Visible Manifestations of the
Project.Project.
“Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007.
The Totnes Local Food Directory.
The Totnes PoundThe Totnes Pound
Transition TalesTransition Tales
Step 8:Step 8:Facilitate the Great ReskillingFacilitate the Great Reskilling
Skilling Up for Skilling Up for Powerdown.Powerdown.Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning…
Using You Tube to Communicate Transition Town ideas.
Great Re-skilling CoursesGreat Re-skilling Courses
Wild Foods, natural Wild Foods, natural building, seed saving, building, seed saving, hand made paints, hand made paints, stove building, forest stove building, forest gardening, food gardening, food growing, bread growing, bread making...making...
Step 9:Step 9:Build a Bridge to Local GovernmentBuild a Bridge to Local Government
World Cafe on Peak Oil and Climate Change with Local Councillors
Contributions to Local Development Framework.
Step 10:Step 10:Honour the EldersHonour the Elders
Step 11:Step 11:Let It Go Where It Wants to Go.Let It Go Where It Wants to Go.
• Solar Water Heater Challenge.Solar Water Heater Challenge.• The Totnes Renewable Energy The Totnes Renewable Energy
Supply Company (TRESCO)Supply Company (TRESCO)• Lending Library.Lending Library.• NISP workshopsNISP workshops• Car Share ClubCar Share Club• TTT International Youth TTT International Youth
Music Festival. Music Festival.
Step 12:Step 12:Create an Energy Descent Action Create an Energy Descent Action
Plan.Plan. Start with a vision and then Start with a vision and then
backcastbackcast
Incorporate Transition TalesIncorporate Transition Tales
Base it on current planning Base it on current planning documents.documents.
The Bro Ddyfi Energy Descent Action Plan 2008 – 2023?
?
Bro Ddyfi 2023
‘Most great adventure stories share the same basic plot: a
community faces a threat to its survival and the story is of how
the characters respond.’ (Chris Johnstone, 2006)
Thank you - Diolch yn fawrTrawsnewid Bro Ddyfi Transition
www.transitionculture.orgtransitiondyfi@yahoo.com